energy forecast

New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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A View From HETI

The company's technology extracts critical minerals like iodine, lithium and copper from oilfield-produced water. Photo courtesy Altillion

Houston-based startup Altillion has secured $5 million in seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its proprietary IRIS and ALIX technologies, which convert oilfield-produced water into valuable minerals.

San Francisco-based EIC Rose Rock and Houston-based Flathead Forge led the round. Altillion says the funding will go toward pilot facilities and commercial deployments as the company looks to scale in the U.S.

“Altillion’s efficient and scalable technologies are needed more than ever to reshape critical mineral recovery and facilitate beneficial use of oilfield brines,” Jay Keener, Altillion’s CEO and co-founder, said in a news release. “We’re uniquely positioned to provide a stable, domestic supply of the critical minerals needed for electronics, batteries, healthcare and national defense technologies. This investment from EIC Rose Rock and Flathead Forge enables us to strategically accelerate this impact and is very timely given the current geopolitical dynamics.”

Altillion's IRIS and ALIX platforms extract minerals like iodine, lithium and copper from oilfield-produced water, geothermal brines and salars. This process allows companies to unlock new sources of revenue while also boosting the domestic critical minerals supply chain. The company announced earlier this summer that it will launch a feasibility project in the Permian Basin and aims to develop a path to commercial-scale implementation in the field.

“We are excited to partner with Altillion to scale and deploy these world-class technologies to access the vast wealth hidden in wastewater,” David Clouse, Managing Director of EIC Rose Rock, added in the release. “With Altillion, we’re expanding our ability to empower the energy industry to domestically source the critical minerals America needs for a robust economy and supply chain.”

Altillion was founded by Keener and COO Scott Buckwald in 2023. Keener previously founded KDH Trading, where Buckwald also serves as COO, according to his LinkedIn page.

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