energy forecast

New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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A View From HETI

The deal builds upon an existing partnership between Fervo and Google. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy

In its largest-ever purchase agreement, Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy will supply 396 megawatts of power to tech powerhouse Google.

The deal includes an option for Google to expand capacity by about 600 megawatts, for a total of 1 gigawatt, by June 2030, according to a news release from Fervo. Financial terms weren’t disclosed.

Google will purchase carbon-free energy from Fervo for a potential data center in Utah, where Fervo is building its more than $2 billion Cape Station geothermal project.

Fervo applies oil-and-gas fracking technology to create geothermal reservoirs and generate electricity.

The first phase of Cape Station is expected to begin delivering geothermal power by late 2026, reaching about 100 megawatts of capacity by early 2027. The second phase, set for completion in 2028, will add 400 megawatts of capacity.

Fervo co-founder and CEO Tim Latimer said in a release that the Google agreement supports enhanced geothermal systems as a key power source for “the next generation of computing infrastructure.”

“The next chapter of advanced power generation technology is being written in Utah,” said Lucia Tian, director of advanced energy technologies at Google.

The Fervo-Google agreement builds on an existing partnership. Fervo’s Project Red pilot development in Nevada, which came online in 2023, supplies power to the local grid. Users of the grid power include Google’s data centers in Nevada.

Fervo subsequently signed a 115-megawatt purchase agreement with Google and NV Energy. The deal enabled Google to bring more geothermal energy to the Nevada grid while insulating everyday customers from the project’s costs.

The latest Google deal is part of the ongoing expansion of Cape Station beyond its initial 100-megawatt phase. Fervo says Cape Station will be the world’s largest enhanced geothermal facility.

The Google agreement comes during a milestone year for Fervo, which was founded in 2017. In May, Fervo’s IPO raised $2.2 billion. The company, whose early investors include Bill Gates, is now valued at $5.65 billion.

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