energy forecast

New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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A View From HETI

Houston-area executives, including ExxonMobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods, have claimed spots on Fortune’s list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business. Photo via Getty Images.

Two Houston-area energy executives have been named to Fortune’s list of the 100 Most Powerful People in Business.

Darren Woods, chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil Corp., appears at No. 34 on the list, and Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp., lands at No. 90. Woods showed up on last year’s inaugural list, while Wirth debuted on the list this year.

Woods assumed the top job at Spring-based ExxonMobil in 2017.

“Woods worked his way up through the ranks of the oil giant, first serving as a planning analyst in 1992, and later as vice president and senior vice president,” according to Fortune.

Under Woods’ watch, ExxonMobil has grown substantially. For instance, the company wrapped up its nearly $60 billion acquisition of Dallas-based oil and gas exploration and production company Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024.

Last year, ExxonMobil posted revenue of nearly $350 billion. The company relocated its headquarters to Spring from the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Irving in 2023.

Wirth became chairman and CEO of Houston-based Chevron in 2018.

“While Chevron continues to grow its oil and gas business from West Texas to Kazakhstan, the company is investing more in hydrogen, renewable fuels and sustainable aviation fuel, carbon capture, and, most recently, lithium extraction,” according to Fortune.

In terms of revenue, Chevron is the country’s second-largest oil and gas company, behind ExxonMobil. Last year, Chevron posted revenue of almost $202.8 billion.

With Wirth at the helm, Chevron has expanded its footprint. In July, for example, the company completed its $53 billion acquisition of New York City-based energy company Hess Corp. The deal, announced in October 2023, was delayed by a now-resolved legal battle against ExxonMobil and China National Offshore Oil Corp. over Hess’ plentiful oil assets in Guyana.

In 2024, Chevron announced it was moving its headquarters to Houston from Northern California.

Jensen Huang, president and CEO of Nvidia, claimed the No. 1 spot. The technology company announced plans to produce AI supercomputers at a Houston-area factory earlier this year.

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