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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. File photo

New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024

by the numbers

The winds of change in power generation are sweeping through Texas.

Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. The report shows:

  • Texas contributed more (12 terawatt-hours) to the country’s 64 terawatt-hour rise in solar generation last year than any other state.
  • Texas installed more solar (7.4 gigawatts) and battery (3.9 gigawatt) capacity than any other state.
  • Texas installed more utility-scale battery capacity (3.9 gigawatts) than any other state.
  • Texas saw the second biggest increase (eight terawatt-hours) in natural gas generation in 2024. Only Virginia, at 10 terawatt-hours, ranked higher.
  • Texas ranked second among the states for the biggest drop in production of coal-fueled power (6.07 terawatt-hours), preceded only by Wyoming (6.3 terawatt-hours).

Overall, coal represented 14 percent of power generation in Texas last year, with the combination of wind and solar at 30 percent, according to the report. Across the U.S., says the report, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal for the first time. Coal generation made up just 15% of U.S. electricity generation in 2024.

“The shift away from coal has been primarily driven by market dynamics and availability of more cost-effective resources,” the report says. “The unit costs of wind and solar have reduced significantly and their quick installation makes them commercially attractive.”

Citing data like the figures published by Ember, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott champions Texas as the “Energy Capital of the World,” a title that Houston also claims.

“As Texas continues to experience unprecedented growth, we will remain a leader in energy while also bolstering the Texas grid to meet the growing demands of our great state,” Abbott said in 2024.

The offshore site is adjacent to a CO2 pipeline network that ExxonMobil acquired in 2023 with its $4.9 billion purchase of Plano-based Denbury Resources. Photo via ExxonMobil.com

ExxonMobil signs biggest offshore CCS lease in the U.S.

big deal

Spring-based ExxonMobil continues to ramp up its carbon capture and storage business with a new offshore lease and a new CCS customer.

On October 10, ExxonMobil announced it had signed the biggest offshore carbon dioxide storage lease in the U.S. ExxonMobil says the more than 271,000-acre site, being leased from the Texas General Land Office, complements the onshore CO2 storage portfolio that it’s assembling.

“This is yet another sign of our commitment to CCS and the strides we’ve been able to make,” Dan Ammann, president of ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions, says in a news release.

The offshore site is adjacent to a CO2 pipeline network that ExxonMobil acquired in 2023 with its $4.9 billion purchase of Plano-based Denbury Resources.

Ammann told Forbes that when it comes to available acreage in the Gulf Coast, this site is “the largest and most attractive from a geological point of view.”

The initial customer for the newly purchased site will be Northbrook, Illinois-based CF Industries, Forbes reported.

This summer, ExxonMobil sealed a deal to remove up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 each year from CF’s nitrogen plant in Yazoo City, Mississippi. CF has earmarked about $100 million to build a CO2 dehydration and compression unit at the plant.

A couple of days before the lease announcement, Ammann said in a LinkedIn post that ExxonMobil had agreed to transport and annually store up to 1.2 metric tons of CO2 from the $1.6 billion New Generation Gas Gathering (NG3) pipeline project in Louisiana. Houston-based Momentum Midstream is developing NG3, which will collect and treat natural gas produced in Texas and Louisiana and deliver it to Gulf Coast markets.

This is ExxonMobil’s first CCS deal with a natural gas processor and fifth CCS deal agreement overall. To date, ExxonMobil has contracts in place for storage of up to 6.7 metric tons of CO2 per year.

“I’m proud that even more industries are choosing our #CCS solutions to meet their emissions reduction goals,” Ammann wrote on LinkedIn.

ExxonMobil says it operates the largest CO2 pipeline network in the U.S.

“The most fundamental thing we’re focused on is making sure the CO2 is stored safely and securely,” Ammann told Forbes in addressing fears that captured CO2 could seep back into the atmosphere.

The blaze forced evacuations and shelter orders in the area, including at schools. Photo via Getty Images

Large pipeline explodes in Houston after a vehicle struck a valve, officials say

breaking news

A massive pipeline explosion that sent a towering flame over neighborhoods near Houston for hours on Monday began after a vehicle drove through a fence and struck an above-ground valve, officials said.

Deer Park officials said police and local FBI agents found no evidence of “terroristic activity" and said it appears to be an isolated incident. The ongoing investigation includes an effort to identify the driver. The blaze forced evacuations and shelter orders in the area, including at schools.

Operators shut off the flow of natural gas liquids in the pipeline, but so much remained in the miles of pipe that firefighters could do nothing but watch and hose down adjacent homes until it burned itself out. That could take hours, perhaps into Tuesday, Deer Park Mayor Jerry Mouton Jr. said.

“The fire, it’s very hot, so a lot of the house structures that are adjacent to that are still catching on fire even though we’re putting a lot of water on them,” Mouton said at an afternoon news conference.

Firefighters were dispatched at 9:55 a.m., after an explosion at a valve station in Deer Park and right next to La Porte rattled adjacent homes and businesses, including a Walmart. Deer Park officials said an SUV drove into the valve after going through a fence on the side of the Walmart parking lot.

Nearly 1,000 homes were in the evacuation area, said Lee Woodward, a spokesperson for La Porte.

At the news conference, officials said only one person, a firefighter, sustained a minor injury. Later, Deer Park spokesperson Kaitlyn Bluejacket said four people were injured. She didn’t provide details about the severity of the injuries.

Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said in a statement that 20 miles (32 kilometers) of pipeline between the two closed vales must burn off before the fire stops.

Anna Lewis, who was walking into the nearby Walmart when the explosion happened, said it sounded “like a bomb went off.” She said everyone inside was rushed to the back of the store and then taken across the street to a grocery store before being bussed to a community center.

“It scared me,” she said. “You really don’t know what to do when it’s happening.”

Geselle Melina Guerra said she and her boyfriend heard the explosion as they were having breakfast in their mobile home.

“All of a sudden we hear this loud bang and then I see something bright, like orange, coming from our back door that’s outside,” said Guerra, who lives within the evacuation area.

Guerra’s boyfriend, Jairo Sanchez, said they’re used to evacuations because they live close to other plants near the highway, but he hadn’t seen an explosion before in his 10 years living there.

“We just drove as far as we could because we didn’t know what was happening,” Sanchez said.

Houston, Texas’ largest city, is the nation’s petrochemical heartland and is home to a cluster of refineries and plants and thousands of miles of pipelines. Explosions and fires are a familiar sight in the area, including some that have been deadly, raising recurring questions about the adequacy of industry efforts to protect the public and the environment.

Letting the fire burn out is better, from an environmental perspective, than trying to attack the flames with some kind of suppressing foam or liquid, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Houston.

“Otherwise it’s going to release a lot of volatile organics into the environment,” he said.

Still, there will undoubtedly be negative environmental consequences, including a release of soot, carbons and organic material, he said.

The pipeline’s owner, Dallas-based Energy Transfer, said air monitoring equipment was being set up near the plume of fire and smoke, which could be seen from at least 10 miles (16 kilometers) away at one point.

A statement from Harris County Pollution Control on Monday afternoon said no volatile organic compounds had been detected. The statement said particulate matter from the smoke was moderate and not an immediate risk to healthy people, although “sensitive populations may want to take precautions.” The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said it was also monitoring the air.

Natural gas liquids are used primarily in the manufacturing of plastics and basic and intermediate chemicals, Krishnamoorti said.

The fire burned through nearby power lines, and the website PowerOutage.us said several thousand customers were without power at one point in Harris County.

In addition to damage closest to the flame, the area’s extensive pipeline infrastructure will also have to be closely inspected and monitored for damage, Krishnamoorti said.

He said that “in the grand scheme of things,” the fire “won’t be a major disrupter of supply chains.”

The Railroad Commission of Texas, which regulates oil and gas in the state, said its safety inspectors were investigating. The agency said they were receiving information from other pipeline operators about what they were doing to ensure the safety of their systems.

Margaret Newman, who lives on the edge of the evacuation zone, said that when she heard the explosion she went out into her yard and could see the flame shooting above the trees. She lost electricity but has a generator that will keep one of the rooms in her home cool, so she planned to stay.

Newman said that in general, she’s not bothered by living so close to such industry. She said she thought the flame was getting smaller by Monday afternoon.

“I keep waiting for it to go out, poof!” she said. “I’m tired of this.”

Caliche says Sixth Street’s backing will enable it to expand its Golden Storage Triangle complex. Photo via calichestorage.com

Investor acquires majority stake in Houston energy storage, CCS co.

here's the deal

Investment firm Sixth Street has purchased a majority stake in Houston-based Caliche Development Partners, which focuses on buying, developing, and operating natural gas and gas storage facilities along with carbon sequestration projects.

Financial terms weren’t disclosed.

The deal includes Caliche’s Golden Triangle Storage facilities and carbon sequestration project in Beaumont, and its Central Valley Gas Storage facilities in Princeton, California.

Caliche says Sixth Street’s backing will enable it to expand its Golden Storage Triangle complex, including the addition of two natural gas caverns.

Caliche’s leadership will continue to oversee day-to-day operations and remain investors in the company. All employees in Caliche’s Texas and California offices and at its facilities are staying aboard.

“We continue to meet the growing demand for the storage of natural gas and industrial gasses, including helium and hydrogen, and provide the infrastructure for lower environmental impact forms of energy through our commitment to safety, deliverability, [and] asset integrity,” Dave Marchese, CEO of Caliche, says in a news release.

Richard Sberlati, a partner at Sixth Street, which has an office in Houston, says Caliche’s success “comes from a combined 65 years of collective storage experience, and we look forward to partnering with the company’s management as they further grow the business.”

Sixth Street’s acquisition of Caliche’s Texas business operations is expected to close in late 2024, and its acquisition of the California business operations is set to close in mid-2025.

Founded in 2016, Caliche announced in 2020 that it had arranged a $150 million debt facility with Houston-based investment firm Orion Infrastructure Capital. Two years later, Caliche gained $268 million in funding from Orion and Chicago-based asset management firm GCM Grosvenor.

OCI broke ground on the project in 2022. Photo via oci-global.com

Woodside to acquire clean ammonia project outside of Houston in  $2.4B deal

seeing green

Woodside Energy has announced its acquiring a Beaumont, Texas, clean ammonia project that's slated to deliver its first ammonia by 2025 and lower carbon ammonia by 2026.

The agreement is for Woodside to acquire 100 percent of OCI Clean Ammonia Holding and its lower carbon ammonia project in Beaumont in an all-cash deal of approximately $2.35 billion. According to Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill, the acquisition positions Woodside as an early mover in clean ammonia within the energy transition.

“This transaction positions Woodside in the growing lower carbon ammonia market," O’Neill says in a news release. "The potential applications for lower carbon ammonia are in power generation, marine fuels and as an industrial feedstock, as it displaces higher-emitting fuels.

“Global ammonia demand is forecast to double by 2050, with lower carbon ammonia making up nearly two-thirds of total demand," she continues. “This Project exceeds our capital allocation framework targets for new energy projects. Both phases are expected to achieve an internal rate of return above 10 percent and payback of less than 10 years."

OCI broke ground on the project in 2022. It's reportedly the world’s first ammonia plant paired with auto thermal reforming with over 95 percent carbon dioxide capture.

Phase 1 of the project will have a capacity of 1.1 million tonnes per annum and is currently under construction. The first ammonia production will be derived from natural gas and is slated for 2025, with lower carbon ammonia production — derived from natural gas paired with carbon sequestration — is expected in in 2026 following commencement of CCS operations

According to the release, Phase 2 will have the capacity to abate 3.2 million tonnes per annum CO2-e, "or over 60 percent of our Scope 3 abatement target,” O’Neill explains.

Linde will source the nitrogen and lower carbon hydrogen feedstock from its feedstock facility, which is currently under construction with a targeted completion in early 2026. In the meantime, early supply of feedstock for the project will come from various suppliers including Linde. Per the release, CCS services will be provided to Linde by ExxonMobil and are expected to be available in 2026.

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Houston Methodist leader on the push for sustainable health care and new local event

Q&A

Every industry can play a role in the energy transition, and Houston Methodist is leading the charge in the health care sector.

Culminating at this week’s inaugural Green ICU Conference, part of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week, the health care system has spent the last three years taking a closer look at its environmental footprint—and showing other hospital systems and medical organizations how they too can make simple changes to reduce emissions.

The event, held tomorrow, Sept. 17, at TMC Helix Park, will bring together health care professionals, industry leaders, policymakers and innovators to explore solutions for building a more sustainable healthcare system.

In an interview with EnergyCapital, Dr. Faisal N. Masud, medical director of critical care at Houston Methodist and a champion for sustainability efforts across the system, shares the inspiration behind the event and what attendees can expect to take away.

Tell us about how the Green ICU Conference came to be.

Houston Methodist’s inaugural Green ICU conference is about three years in the making. It originated because Houston Methodist recognized the significant impact health care has on sustainability and the lack of similar initiatives in the U.S.

The Center for Critical Care at Houston Methodist launched a sustainability-focused ICU initiative, published a roadmap and became involved in international efforts to develop guidelines that many other organizations now use. Our work led to the creation of the first Green ICU Collaborative in the country, and the Green ICU Conference was established to share best practices and address the global impact of critical care on the environment.

What were some of the biggest takeaways from the collaborative, and how are they represented in this new event?

Through the Green ICU Collaborative, we’ve seen that health care professionals can make a significant impact on sustainability through simple, practical changes, and many solutions can be implemented without major costs or compromising patient care. Additionally, there’s a strong link between environmental stewardship and patient safety and quality. These lessons will be represented in the new Green ICU Conference by showcasing easy-to-adopt best practices, emphasizing the importance of sustainability in daily health care operations, and fostering a sense of shared responsibility among attendees to improve both patient outcomes and environmental impact.

Why are ICUs considered to be such carbon hot spots?

ICUs are considered carbon hot spots because they care for the sickest patients, requiring intensive therapies, numerous medications and a large amount of equipment, such as ventilators and pumps. This makes them the most resource- and energy-intensive areas in a hospital. A single day in the ICU can have a greenhouse gas impact equivalent to driving a car 1,000 kilometers.

The U.S. health care sector is responsible for approximately 8.5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, and hospitals are the second-most energy-intensive commercial buildings in the country. With the Texas Medical Center being in the heart of Houston, it’s critical that health care organizations play a role in this area.

That’s why the Center for Critical Care launched a system-wide Green ICU Initiative with the Houston Methodist Office of Sustainability to help reduce our carbon impact and waste while continuing to provide unparalleled patient care. Innovation is part of our culture, and that extends into our sustainability efforts. Houston Methodist’s Green ICU initiative is the first-of-its-kind in the U.S.

What efforts has Houston Methodist taken to cut emissions?

The first step to cutting emissions is measuring an organization’s carbon footprint to determine the best path forward. Houston Methodist’s Office of Sustainability has aggregated two years of baseline emissions data pending third-party validation. The hospital has taken several steps to cut emissions, including implementing composting programs, installing solar panels, improving energy utilization and participating in global plastic recycling initiatives. These efforts are part of a broader commitment led by our Office of Sustainability to reduce the hospital’s environmental footprint.

Tell us a little more about the event. Who should attend? What do you expect to be some of the highlights?

The Green ICU Conference, taking place during Houston Energy and Climate Week, is focused on health care sustainability, bringing together health care professionals, engineers, experts and anyone interested in reducing health care’s environmental impact. With participants and speakers from six countries, the conference brings together leading experts who aim to raise awareness, share best practices and offer practical, easy-to-adopt solutions for making health care more sustainable.

Highlights include perspectives from leading voices in health care sustainability, real-world examples of successful sustainability initiatives and opportunities for networking and collaboration. Anyone interested in health care, sustainability,or making a positive impact in their community should consider attending.

And, because of increasing interest, we’ve opened up the opportunity for attendees to join virtually at no cost or in person.

What do you hope attendees take away? What are your major goals for the event?

The main goals of hosting the Green ICU Conference for the first time are to raise awareness about the environmental impact of health care; engage and empower attendees to implement easy, practical sustainability solutions; and foster a sense of shared community and responsibility.

I hope attendees leave the event feeling motivated and equipped to make meaningful changes in their own practices, whether that’s improving patient care, supporting their colleagues, or leaving their organization and environment in a better place for future generations.

Texas House Democrats urge Trump administration to restore $250M solar grant

solar grants

Eight Democratic members of the U.S. House from Texas, including two from Houston, are calling on the Trump administration to restore a nearly $250 million solar energy grant for Texas that’s being slashed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In a letter to Lee Zeldin, head of the EPA, and Russell Vought, director of the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the House members urged the two officials to reinstate the nearly $250 million grant, which was awarded to Texas under the $7 billion Biden-era Solar for All program. The Texas grant was designed to assist 28,000 low-income households in installing solar panels, aiming to reduce their energy bills.

“This administration has improperly withheld billions in congressionally appropriated funding that was intended to benefit everyday Americans,” the letter stated.

The letter claimed that numerous court rulings have determined the EPA cannot repeal already allocated funding.

“Congress made a commitment to families, small businesses, and communities across this country to lower their utility bills and reduce harmful pollution through investments in clean energy. The Solar for All program was part of that commitment, and the EPA’s actions to rescind this funding effectively undermine that congressional intent,” the House members wrote.

The six House members who signed the letter are:

  • U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Al Green of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Greg Casar of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth

The nearly $250 million grant was awarded last year to the Harris County-led Texas Solar for All Coalition.

In a post on the X social media platform, Zeldin said the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” killed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which would have financed the $7 billion Solar for All program.

“The bottom line is this: EPA no longer has the statutory authority to administer the program or the appropriated funds to keep this boondoggle alive,” Zeldin said.

Big developments for Fervo, Hertha, Oxy, and more energy news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: There have been major developments in the local energy transition sector in September, including big funding for Hertha Metals, a powerful partnership for Fervo, and a launch on the horizon for Oxy. Below are the five most-read EnergyCaptialHTX stories from September 1-14.

1. Houston-area sustainable steel company emerges from stealth with $17M in VC funding

U.S. Rep. Morgan Luttrell, a Magnolia Republican, and Hertha Metals founder and CEO Laureen Meroueh toured Hertha’s Conroe plant in August. Photo courtesy Hertha Metals/Business Wire.

Conroe-based Hertha Metals, a producer of substantial steel, has hauled in more than $17 million in venture capital from Khosla Ventures, Breakthrough Energy Fellows, Pear VC, Clean Energy Ventures and other investors. The money has been put toward the construction and the launch of its 1-metric-ton-per-day pilot plant in Conroe, where its breakthrough in steelmaking has been undergoing tests. The company uses a single-step process that it claims is cheaper, more energy-efficient and equally as scalable as conventional steelmaking methods. The plant is fueled by natural gas or hydrogen. Continue reading.

2. Fervo Energy selects Baker Hughes to supply geothermal tech for power plants

Fervo Energy has tapped Baker Hughes to supply technology to five power plants at Cape Station, its flagship geothermal power generation project in Utah. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy.

Houston-based geothermal energy startup Fervo Energy has tapped Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes to supply geothermal equipment for five Fervo power plants in Utah. The equipment will be installed at Fervo’s Cape Station geothermal power project near Milford, Utah. The project’s five second-phase, 60-megawatt plants will generate about 400 megawatts of clean energy for the grid. Financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. Continue reading.

3. Oxy's $1.3B Texas carbon capture facility on track to​ launch this year

Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Occidental, said the company's Stratos DAC project is on track to begin capturing CO2 later this year. Photo via 1pointfive.com

Houston-based Occidental Petroleum is gearing up to start removing CO2 from the atmosphere at its $1.3 billion direct air capture (DAC) project in the Midland-Odessa area. Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Occidental, said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call that the Stratos project — being developed by carbon capture and sequestration subsidiary 1PointFive — is on track to begin capturing CO2 later this year. Continue reading.

4. Houston foundation doles out $700K for Texas chemical research

The Welch Foundation has awarded funding through two of its newest grant programs. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based The Welch Foundation has issued $700,000 in additional funding to support chemical research through two of its newest grant programs. The foundation has named the recipients of its Welch eXperimental (WelchX) Collaboration Retreat and Pilot Grants and the Welch Postdoctoral Fellows of the Life Sciences Research Foundation Grants. The WelchX grants were awarded to teams of two Texas researchers who presented "innovative and collaborative ideas" addressing challenges in the clean energy space, according to the foundation. Continue reading.

5. 10+ Houston energy transition events to attend in September 2025

The 22nd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum takes place September 18. Photo courtesy of Rice

September is full of must-attend energy transition events. Get the details on the top energy happenings in September 2025, and begin registering today (some of the largest events happen this week). Continue reading.

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