New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2025 programming will focus on energy policy and the reshaping energy landscape. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

CERAWeek 2025 returns to Houston featuring U.S. energy policy leaders

coming soon

CERAWeek by S&P Global will bring together energy leaders from around the world for its 43rd annual conference next week, March 10–14, at the Hilton Americas Houston.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum will headline the conference with plenary addresses focused on strengthening global energy security.

Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, is also an investor in Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy. Burgum also chairs the newly formed White House National Energy Dominance Council and was previously the governor of North Dakota.

"We are very pleased to welcome Secretary Wright to CERAWeek as he leads the Department of Energy and guides U.S. energy policy with the tremendous array of responsibilities that affect American national and energy security," Daniel Yergin, conference chair and Vice Chairman of S&P Global said in a news release. "His insights on the future of U.S. energy policy will be an important and timely contribution to critical dialogues at this year's conference about the technological, market and geopolitical factors that are shaping the global energy landscape."

Yergin added in a separate release: "As the cabinet secretary responsible for federal lands and resources and chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council, (Burgum’s) views on U.S. energy policy and security have tremendous impact. Moreover, he brings in-depth experience of having been governor of a major energy-producing state. His participation will be a timely and important addition to the critical dialogues taking place at this year's conference."

This year, CERAWeek will zero in on the theme “Moving Ahead: Energy strategies for a complex world,” and will consider how changes in policy, technology and geopolitics are reshaping the energy landscape.

Some of the speakers include:

Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp.
Laurence D. Fink, founder, chairman and CEO of BlackRock
Murray Auchincloss, CEO of bp plc
Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Oxy
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips
Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell
Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines
And many others

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle power, grid and electrification, renewables and low-carbon fuels, the capital transition, innovation technology, climate and sustainability and others topics.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "transformational technology platforms in energy and adjacent industries ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," according to the release.

The "Agora Hubs" will return and will focus on climate, carbon and new energies.

The 2024 CERAWeek addressed topics like funding the energy transition, geothermal energy, AI and more. Registration for 2025 is available now.

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New UH white paper pushes for national plastics recycling policy

plastics paper

The latest white paper from the University of Houston’s Energy Transition Institute analyzes how the U.S. currently handles plastics recycling and advocates for a national, policy-driven approach.

Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH; Debalina Sengupta, assistant vice president and chief operating officer at the Energy Transition Institute; and UH researcher Aparajita Datta authored the paper titled “Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for Plastics Packaging: Gaps, Challenges and Opportunities for Policies in the United States.” In the paper, the scientists argue that the current mix of state laws and limited recycling infrastructure are holding back progress at the national level.

EPR policies assign responsibility for the end-of-life management of plastic packaging to producers or companies, instead of taxpayers, to incentivize better product design and reduce waste.

“My hope is this research will inform government agencies on what policies could be implemented that would improve how we approach repurposing plastics in the U.S.,” Krishnamoorti said in a news release. “Not only will this information identify policies that help reduce waste, but they could also prove to be a boon to the circular economy as they can identify economically beneficial pathways to recycle materials.”

The paper notes outdated recycling infrastructure and older technology as roadblocks.

Currently, only seven states have passed EPR laws for plastic packaging. Ten others are looking to pass similar measures, but each looks different, according to UH. Additionally, each state also has its own reporting system, which leads to incompatible datasets. Developing national EPR policies or consistent nationwide standards could lead to cleaner and more efficient processes, the report says.

The researchers also believe that investing in sorting, processing facilities, workforce training and artificial intelligence could alleviate issues for businesses—and particularly small businesses, which often lack the resources to manage complex reporting systems. Digital infrastructure techniques and moving away from manual data collection could also help.

Public education on recycling would also be “imperative” to the success of new policies, the report adds.

“Experts repeatedly underscored that public education and awareness about EPR, including among policymakers, are dismal,” the report reads. “Infrastructural limitations, barriers to access and the prevailing belief that curbside recycling is ineffective in the U.S. contribute to public dissatisfaction, misinformation and, in some cases, opposition toward the use of taxpayers’ and ratepayers’ contributions for EPR.”

For more information, read the full paper here.

Investment bank opens energy-focused office in Houston

new to hou

Investment bank Cohen & Co. Capital Markets has opened a Houston office to serve as the hub of its energy advisory business and has tapped investment banking veteran Rahul Jasuja as the office’s leader.

Jasuja joined Cohen & Co. Capital Markets, a subsidiary of financial services company Cohen & Co., as managing director, and head of energy and energy transition investment banking. Cohen’s capital markets arm closed $44 billion worth of deals last year.

Jasuja previously worked at energy-focused Houston investment bank Mast Capital Advisors, where he was managing director of investment banking. Before Mast Capital, Jasuja was director of energy investment banking in the Houston office of Wells Fargo Securities.

“Meeting rising [energy] demand will require disciplined capital allocation across traditional energy, sustainable fuels, and firm, dispatchable solutions such as nuclear and geothermal,” Jasuja said in a news release. “Houston remains the center of gravity where capital, operating expertise, and execution come together to make that transition investable.”

The Houston office will focus on four energy verticals:

Energy systems such as nuclear and geothermal
Energy supply chains
Energy-transition fuel and technology
Traditional energy

“We are making a committed investment in Houston because we believe the infrastructure powering AI, defense, and energy transition — from nuclear to rare-earth technology — represents the next secular cycle of value creation,” Jerry Serowik, head of Cohen & Co. Capital Markets, added in the release.

Houston cleantech startup Helix Earth lands $1.2M NSF grant

federal funding

Renewable equipment manufacturer Helix Earth Technologies is one of three Houston-based companies to secure federal funding through the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II grant program in recent months.

The company—which was founded based on NASA technology, spun out of Rice University and has been incubated at Greentown Labs—has received approximately $1.2 million from the National Science Foundation to develop its high-efficiency retrofit dehumidification systems that aim to reduce the energy consumption of commercial AC units. The company reports that its technology has the potential to cut AC energy use by up to 50 percent.

"This award validates our vision and propels our impact forward with valuable research funding and the prestige of the NSF stamp of approval," Rawand Rasheed, Helix CEO and founder, shared in a LinkedIn post. "This award is a reflection our exceptional team's grit, expertise, and collaborative spirit ... This is just the beginning as we continue pushing for a sustainable future."

Two other Houston-area companies also landed $1.2 million in NSF SBIR Phase II funding during the same period:

Resilitix Intelligence, a disaster AI startup that was founded shortly after Hurricane Harvey, that works to "reduce the human and economic toll of disasters" by providing local and state organizations and emergency response teams with near-real-time, AI-driven insights to improve response speed, save lives and accelerate recovery
Conroe-based Fluxworks Inc., founded in 2021 at Texas A&M, which provides magnetic gear technology for the space industry that has the potential to significantly enhance in-space manufacturing and unlock new capabilities for industries by allowing advanced research and manufacturing in microgravity

The three grants officially rolled out in early September 2025 and are expected to run through August 2027, according to the NSF. The SBIR Phase II grants support in-depth research and development of ideas that showed potential for commercialization after receiving Phase I grants from government agencies.

However, congressional authority for the program, often called "America's seed fund," expired on September 30, 2025, and has stalled since the recent government shutdown. Government agencies cannot issue new grants until Congress agrees on a path forward. According to SBIR.gov, "if no further action is taken by Congress, federal agencies may not be able to award funding under SBIR/STTR programs and SBIR/STTR solicitations may be delayed, cancelled, or rescinded."

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