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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2025 programming will focus on energy policy and the reshaping energy landscape. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

CERAWeek 2025 returns to Houston featuring U.S. energy policy leaders

coming soon

CERAWeek by S&P Global will bring together energy leaders from around the world for its 43rd annual conference next week, March 10–14, at the Hilton Americas Houston.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum will headline the conference with plenary addresses focused on strengthening global energy security.

Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, is also an investor in Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy. Burgum also chairs the newly formed White House National Energy Dominance Council and was previously the governor of North Dakota.

"We are very pleased to welcome Secretary Wright to CERAWeek as he leads the Department of Energy and guides U.S. energy policy with the tremendous array of responsibilities that affect American national and energy security," Daniel Yergin, conference chair and Vice Chairman of S&P Global said in a news release. "His insights on the future of U.S. energy policy will be an important and timely contribution to critical dialogues at this year's conference about the technological, market and geopolitical factors that are shaping the global energy landscape."

Yergin added in a separate release: "As the cabinet secretary responsible for federal lands and resources and chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council, (Burgum’s) views on U.S. energy policy and security have tremendous impact. Moreover, he brings in-depth experience of having been governor of a major energy-producing state. His participation will be a timely and important addition to the critical dialogues taking place at this year's conference."

This year, CERAWeek will zero in on the theme “Moving Ahead: Energy strategies for a complex world,” and will consider how changes in policy, technology and geopolitics are reshaping the energy landscape.

Some of the speakers include:

  • Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp.
  • Laurence D. Fink, founder, chairman and CEO of BlackRock
  • Murray Auchincloss, CEO of bp plc
  • Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Oxy
  • Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips
  • Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell
  • Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes
  • John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation
  • Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines
  • And many others

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle power, grid and electrification, renewables and low-carbon fuels, the capital transition, innovation technology, climate and sustainability and others topics.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "transformational technology platforms in energy and adjacent industries ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," according to the release.

The "Agora Hubs" will return and will focus on climate, carbon and new energies.

The 2024 CERAWeek addressed topics like funding the energy transition, geothermal energy, AI and more. Registration for 2025 is available now.

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Eclipse Energy lands Weatherford investment to scale clean hydrogen tech

clean energy collab

Oil and gas giant Weatherford International (NASDAQ: WFRD) has made a capital investment for an undisclosed amount in Eclipse Energy as part of a collaborative partnership aimed at scaling and commercializing Eclipse's clean fuel technology.

According to a release, joint projects from the two Houston-based companies are expected to launch as soon as January 2026. The partnership aims to leverage Weatherford's global operations with Eclipse Energy's pioneering subsurface biotechnology that converts end-of-life oil fields into low-cost, sustainable hydrogen sources.

“We strongly believe the subsurface is the most overlooked climate asset,” Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon, CEO of Eclipse Energy, said in the release. “This partnership demonstrates how traditional oilfield expertise and frontier biotechnology can come together to transform the energy transition. Weatherford’s global reach and deep technical knowledge will accelerate our ability to scale our low-carbon technology rapidly and cost-effectively.”

Eclipse Energy, previously known as Gold H2, completed its first field trial this summer, demonstrating subsurface bio-stimulated hydrogen production. According to the company, its technology could yield up to 250 billion kilograms of low-carbon hydrogen, and it could also extend "beyond hydrogen, laying the foundation for the next generation of subsurface clean energy fuels."

Last month, Eclipse Energy won in the Energy Transition Business category at the 2025 Houston Innovation Awards. The company closed an $8 million series A this year and has plans to raise another round in 2026.

CenterPoint and partners launch AI initiative to stabilize the power grid

AI infrastructure

Houston-based utility company CenterPoint Energy is one of the founding partners of a new AI infrastructure initiative called Chain Reaction.

Software companies NVIDIA and Palantir have joined CenterPoint in forming Chain Reaction, which is aimed at speeding up AI buildouts for energy producers and distributors, data centers and infrastructure builders. Among the initiative’s goals are to stabilize and expand the power grid to meet growing demand from data centers, and to design and develop large data centers that can support AI activity.

“The energy infrastructure buildout is the industrial challenge of our generation,” Tristan Gruska, Palantir’s head of energy and infrastructure, says in a news release. “But the software that the sector relies on was not built for this moment. We have spent years quietly deploying systems that keep power plants running and grids reliable. Chain Reaction is the result of building from the ground up for the demands of AI.”

CenterPoint serves about 7 million customers in Texas, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio. After Hurricane Beryl struck Houston in July 2024, CenterPoint committed to building a resilient power grid for the region and chose Palantir as its “software backbone.”

“Never before have technology and energy been so intertwined in determining the future course of American innovation, commercial growth, and economic security,” Jason Wells, chairman, president and CEO of CenterPoint, added in the release.

In November, the utility company got the go-ahead from the Public Utility Commission of Texas for a $2.9 billion upgrade of its Houston-area power grid. CenterPoint serves 2.9 million customers in a 12-county territory anchored by Houston.

A month earlier, CenterPoint launched a $65 billion, 10-year capital improvement plan to support rising demand for power across all of its service territories.

ERCOT approves $9.4B project to improve grid, meet data center demand

power project

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the electric grid for 90 percent of Texans, is undertaking a $9.4 billion project to improve the reliability and efficiency of statewide power distribution. The initiative comes as ERCOT copes with escalating demand for electricity from data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

The project, approved Dec. 9 by ERCOT’s board, will involve building a 1,109-mile “super highway” of new 765-kilovolt transmission lines. One kilovolt equals 1,000 volts of electricity.

According to the Hoodline Dallas news site, the $9.4 billion project represents the five- to six-year first phase of ERCOT’s Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan (STEP). Hoodline says the plan, whose price tag is nearly $33 billion, calls for 2,468 miles of new 765-kilovolt power lines.

STEP will enable ERCOT to “move power longer distances with fewer losses,” Hoodline reports.

Upgrading the ERCOT grid is a key priority amid continued population growth in Texas, along with the state’s explosion of new data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

ERCOT says about 11,000 megawatts of new power generation capacity have been added to the ERCOT grid since last winter.

But in a report released ahead of the December board meeting, ERCOT says it received 225 requests this year from large power users to connect to its grid — a 270 percent uptick in the number of megawatts being sought by mega-users since last December. Nearly three-fourths (73 percent) of the requests came from data centers.

Allan Schurr, chief commercial officer of Houston-based Enchanted Rock, a provider of products and services for microgrids and onsite power generation, tells Energy Capital that the quickly expanding data center industry is putting “unprecedented pressure” on ERCOT’s grid.

“While the state has added new generation and transmission capacity, lengthy interconnection timelines and grid-planning limitations mean that supply and transmission are not keeping pace with this rapid expansion,” Schurr says. “This impacts both reliability and affordability.”

For families in Texas, this could result in higher energy bills, he says. Meanwhile, critical facilities like hospitals and grocery stores face a heightened challenge of preventing power outages during extreme weather or at other times when the ERCOT grid is taxed.

“I expect this trend to continue as AI and high-density computing grow, driving higher peak demand and greater grid variability — made even more complex by more renewables, extreme weather and other large energy users, like manufacturers,” Schurr says.

According to the Pew Research Center, data centers accounted for 4 percent of U.S. electricity use in 2024, and power demand from data centers is expected to more than double by 2030. Data centers that support the AI boom make up much of the rising demand.

In September, RBN Energy reported more than 10 massive data-center campuses had been announced in Texas, with dozens more planned. The Lone Star State is already home to roughly 400 data centers.

“Texas easily ranks among the nation’s top states for existing data centers, with only Virginia edging it out in both data-center count and associated power demand,” says RBN Energy.

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