New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2025 programming will focus on energy policy and the reshaping energy landscape. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

CERAWeek 2025 returns to Houston featuring U.S. energy policy leaders

coming soon

CERAWeek by S&P Global will bring together energy leaders from around the world for its 43rd annual conference next week, March 10–14, at the Hilton Americas Houston.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum will headline the conference with plenary addresses focused on strengthening global energy security.

Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, is also an investor in Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy. Burgum also chairs the newly formed White House National Energy Dominance Council and was previously the governor of North Dakota.

"We are very pleased to welcome Secretary Wright to CERAWeek as he leads the Department of Energy and guides U.S. energy policy with the tremendous array of responsibilities that affect American national and energy security," Daniel Yergin, conference chair and Vice Chairman of S&P Global said in a news release. "His insights on the future of U.S. energy policy will be an important and timely contribution to critical dialogues at this year's conference about the technological, market and geopolitical factors that are shaping the global energy landscape."

Yergin added in a separate release: "As the cabinet secretary responsible for federal lands and resources and chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council, (Burgum’s) views on U.S. energy policy and security have tremendous impact. Moreover, he brings in-depth experience of having been governor of a major energy-producing state. His participation will be a timely and important addition to the critical dialogues taking place at this year's conference."

This year, CERAWeek will zero in on the theme “Moving Ahead: Energy strategies for a complex world,” and will consider how changes in policy, technology and geopolitics are reshaping the energy landscape.

Some of the speakers include:

Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp.
Laurence D. Fink, founder, chairman and CEO of BlackRock
Murray Auchincloss, CEO of bp plc
Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Oxy
Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips
Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell
Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines
And many others

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle power, grid and electrification, renewables and low-carbon fuels, the capital transition, innovation technology, climate and sustainability and others topics.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "transformational technology platforms in energy and adjacent industries ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," according to the release.

The "Agora Hubs" will return and will focus on climate, carbon and new energies.

The 2024 CERAWeek addressed topics like funding the energy transition, geothermal energy, AI and more. Registration for 2025 is available now.

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Wind and solar supplied over a third of ERCOT power, report shows

power report

Since 2023, wind and solar power have been the fastest-growing sources of electricity for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and increasingly are meeting stepped-up demand, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The report says utility-scale solar generated 50 percent more electricity for ERCOT in the first nine months this year compared with the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, electricity generated by wind power rose 4 percent in the first nine months of this year versus the same period in 2024.

Together, wind and solar supplied 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity in the first nine months of 2025.

Heavier reliance on wind and solar power comes amid greater demand for ERCOT electricity. In the first nine months of 2025, ERCOT recorded the fastest growth in electricity demand (5 percent) among U.S. power grids compared with the same period last year, according to the report.

“ERCOT’s electricity demand is forecast to grow faster than that of any other grid operator in the United States through at least 2026,” the report says.

EIA forecasts demand for ERCOT electricity will climb 14 percent in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period this year. This anticipated jump coincides with a number of large data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities coming online next year.

The ERCOT grid covers about 90 percent of Texas’ electrical load.

Micro-nuclear reactor to launch next year at Texas A&M innovation campus

nuclear pilot

The Texas A&M University System and Last Energy plan to launch a micro-nuclear reactor pilot project next summer at the Texas A&M-RELLIS technology and innovation campus in Bryan.

Washington, D.C.-based Last Energy will build a 5-megawatt reactor that’s a scaled-down version of its 20-megawatt reactor. The micro-reactor initially will aim to demonstrate safety and stability, and test the ability to generate electricity for the grid.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) fast-tracked the project under its New Reactor Pilot Program. The project will mark Last Energy’s first installation of a nuclear reactor in the U.S.

Private funds are paying for the project, which Robert Albritton, chairman of the Texas A&M system’s board of regents, said is “an example of what’s possible when we try to meet the needs of the state and tap into the latest technologies.”

Glenn Hegar, chancellor of the Texas A&M system, said the 5-megawatt reactor is the kind of project the system had in mind when it built the 2,400-acre Texas A&M-RELLIS campus.

The project is “bold, it’s forward-looking, and it brings together private innovation and public research to solve today’s energy challenges,” Hegar said.

As it gears up to build the reactor, Last Energy has secured a land lease at Texas A&M-RELLIS, obtained uranium fuel, and signed an agreement with DOE. Founder and CEO Bret Kugelmass said the project will usher in “the next atomic era.”

In February, John Sharp, chancellor of Texas A&M’s flagship campus, said the university had offered land at Texas A&M-RELLIS to four companies to build small modular nuclear reactors. Power generated by reactors at Texas A&M-RELLIS may someday be supplied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid.

Also in February, Last Energy announced plans to develop 30 micro-nuclear reactors at a 200-acre site about halfway between Lubbock and Fort Worth.

Rice University partners with Australian co. to boost mineral processing, battery innovation

critical mineral partnership

Rice University and Australian mineral exploration company Locksley Resources have joined together in a research partnership to accelerate the development of antimony processing in the U.S. Antimony is a critical mineral used for defense systems, electronics and battery storage.

Rice and Locksley will work together to develop scalable methods for extracting and utilizing antimony. Currently, the U.S. relies on imports for nearly all refined antimony, according to Rice.

Locksley will fund the research and provide antimony-rich feedstocks and rare earth elements from a project in the Mojave Desert. The research will explore less invasive hydrometallurgical techniques for antimony extraction and explore antimony-based materials for use in batteries and other energy storage applications.

“This strategic collaboration with Rice marks a pivotal step in executing Locksley’s U.S. strategy,” Nathan Lude, chairman of Locksley Resources, said in a news release. “By fast-tracking our research program, we are helping rebuild downstream capacity through materials innovation that the country urgently requires.”

Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Materials Science and Nanoengineering at Rice, is the principal investigator of the project.

“Developing scalable, domestic pathways for antimony processing is not only a scientific and engineering challenge but also a national strategic priority,” Ajayan said in the news release. “By combining Rice’s expertise in advanced materials with Locksley’s resources, we can address a critical supply chain gap and build collaborations that strengthen U.S. energy resilience.”

The Rice Advanced Materials Institute (RAMI) will play a major role in supporting the advancement of technology and energy-storage applications.

“This partnership aligns with our mission to lead in materials innovations that address national priorities,” Lane Martin, director of RAMI, said in a news release. “By working with Locksley, we are helping to build a robust domestic supply chain for critical materials and support the advancement of next-generation energy technologies.”

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