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Hot rocks, AI, and more — 5 themes and takeaways from CERAWeek 2024 in Houston

Here are five things to know from CERAWeek this year. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

The 2024 edition of CERAWeek by S&P Global wrapped up last Friday in Houston, and a handful of themes emerged as topical and disruptive amid the energy transition.

Here are five takeaways from the conference, according to EnergyCapital reporting.

Funding the energy transition continues to be a challenge.

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The biggest obstacle to the energy transition is — and might always be — funding it. A panel at Agora on Thursday, March 21, moderated by Barbara Burger set out to discuss the role of venture capital amid the future of energy.

Daniel Goldman, managing partner at Clean Energy Ventures, said that the first plants for these new, revolutionary technologies are going to be more expensive than its subsequent plants.

"But you have to built it," Goldman says. "'First of a kind' can be very different from the end plant, because you need to manage risk. ... But those first plants are going to be quite costly, and you're going to have to recognize that as an investor."

Microsoft and Breakthrough Ventures Founder Bill Gates would address this in his talk later that day, pointing out that traditional infrastructure investors are used to knowing what a plant would cost before its built. But in clean tech, outside of solar and wind, there's too much unknown to give the estimation those investors are looking for.

"Nothing's at the maturity level that you can do that," Gates says.

The DOE's role of de-risking green tech.

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The United States Department of Energy had a significant presence at CERAWeek, with Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm making two major announcements on Monday, March 18, the first day of the conference. One of the announcements was the DOE's latest Pathways to Commercial Liftoff report, which are initiatives established to provide investors with information of how specific energy technologies commercialize and what challenges they each have to overcome as they scale.

"We develop these Liftoff Reports through a combination of modeling and hundreds and hundreds of interviews with people across the whole investment lifecycle—from early-stage capital to commercial banks and institutional investors," Granholm says in her address, announcing geothermal energy as the subject of the ninth report.

Intended to "create a common fact base and a tool for ongoing dialogue with the private sector on the pathways to commercial liftoff," according to the DOE, these reports can be instrumental for enterprises in the field.

A panel at Agora on Thursday, March 21, featuring geothermal energy innovators discussed the impact of the report. Tim Latimer, CEO and founder of Houston-based Fervo Energy, says the report included details from his company's work.

To Latimer, the report showcases geothermal energy's ability to compete from a cost perspective.

"I think geothermal is already winning that cost discussion," Latimer says. "You're talking about $45 per megawatt hour unsubsidized cost for round-the-clock, 24/7 carbon-free energy. I think that's an achievable ambition the DOE set out, and I think it's an unbeatable value proposition.

Hot topic: Geothermal energy.

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Geothermal energy was discussed throughout the week following Granholm's address, in part because of its expected cost efficiency, but also because it's a type of energy that should provide a smooth transition from traditional oil and gas.

John Redfern, CEO of Eavor Technologies, global geothermal technology company headquartered in Canada, says on the geothermal panel that the geothermal industry can build off existing infrastructure.

"Most of it is building blocks that we're recycling from the oil industry — resources, people, technologies," Redfern says. "So, it's more about implementing rather than inventing some new, novel product."

Latimer agrees, adding that Fervo "is fully in the deployment phase."

"The breakthrough needed to make geothermal ready for primetime have already happened," Latimer says.

AI is everywhere — especially the energy transition.

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The topic of artificial intelligence was everywhere, so much that by Thursday, panelists joked about every discussion including at least one mention of the technology.

Gates was one speaker who addresses the subject, which isn't all too surprising, since Microsoft owns a portion of OpenAI, which created ChatGPT. One thing left to be known is how directly AI will affect the energy transition — and on what timeline.

AI's current applications are within white collar activities, Gates explains, citing writing a regulatory permit or looking at evidence in a lawsuit. He explains that current AI capabilities could continually grow or remain stagnant for a while, he isn't sure.

"The thing that’s daunting is we don’t know how quickly it will improve," he adds.

Gates didn't comment on energy specific AI applications but noted that AI has advanced far past robotics, which would target blue collar roles.

Big tech sees green.

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And speaking of AI, big tech companies have been making moves to lower carbon footprints, and that was made clear by the activations at CERAWeek. Microsoft and Amazon each had designated houses at the conference, alongside Oxy, Chevron, Aramco, and other traditional energy players.

At Microsoft, Houston-based Amperon, which recently announced a partnership with the tech company, presented and pitched their company. The Microsoft and Amazon houses showcased each company's low-carbon technologies.

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A View From HETI

Exxon Mobil and Chevron made big profits in spring 2026. Photo via Chevron

American oil and gas giants raked in massive spring profits while fighting between Iran and the U.S. impeded petroleum shipments and consumers around the world paid more for fuel and confronted shortages.

The conflict, now in its sixth month, halted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that previously served as a delivery route for a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. With global supplies constrained, prices for Brent crude, the international standard, soared from about $70 to above $100 a barrel for much of March, April and May, and at one point reached $126.

The money that oil companies accrued between the beginning of April and the end of June could receive extra scrutiny this year. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices climbed sharply during that period, increasing costs for drivers and airline passengers. Supplies ran low in some countries, leading to sporadic fuel rationing in Australia and government office closures in Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Spring, Texas-based Exxon Mobil reported that its second quarter profits doubled to $14.53 billion, boosted by record diesel production. The oil giant brought in $116.02 billion in revenue, up 42%.

Chevron, based in Houston, nearly quadrupled its profits to $12.07 billion and revenue jumped 56% to $70.06 billion.

Six of Europe’s largest oil companies posted combined first-quarter profits of $22 billion, more than 40% higher than last year.

“There are constituencies around the world who are having a very good crisis, and the oil producers are one of them,” said Patrick Galey, fossil fuels lead at Global Witness, a nonprofit organization that investigates environmental issues. “When you compare that to the hundreds of millions of people who are struggling with rolling blackouts, with electricity curbs, rationing, waiting in line for food queues, or the disruption to fertilizers and the potential impact that that has on food prices, we don’t think that it’s a justifiable price for the rest of the world to be paying.”

Lawmakers propose taxing major oil producers for war windfalls

Energy companies such as Exxon and Chevron do not set the price of American oil, which ricocheted from $68 to $115 a barrel during the quarter. It’s driven by supply and demand, and what traders, refiners and other buyers are willing to pay.

Nevertheless, Democrats in Congress introduced bills in March to tax major oil producers for profits they show from 2026 onward and have the tax proceeds redistributed to consumers.

“It’s fair to put a windfall profits tax on inordinate windfall profits rather than cut off children’s food programs,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat who introduced the Senate version of the legislation.

Whitehouse's measure and a companion bill introduced by U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna of California would amend the U.S. tax code to impose a per-barrel tax on companies that produced or imported at least 300,000 barrels of oil per day in 2025.

“We cracked $4 again per gallon last weekend in gas stations that I drove by, and that’s a big expense, particularly for families that get their income from driving around from job to job in the work van or the work truck,” Whitehouse said.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S., which was below $3 before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, reached $4.11 Friday, July 31, about $1 more than last year at this time.

The UK and other European countries implemented temporary windfall profits taxes on fossil fuel companies in 2022. The UK extended that to 2030, according to Tax Foundation Europe.

“Penalizing the businesses who stood by those countries and provided that product going forward is very short-sighted,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in a call with investors Friday. “We canceled investments that we had planned for Europe based on the last time they passed a windfall profits tax.”

Refineries rake in cash while consumers pay more for fuel

Outfits such as Exxon and Chevron, which also own refineries, are in the best position to profit from the current market conditions, said Tom Seng, assistant professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University.

Refineries turn oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and home heating oil. Higher prices for those products meant Chevron’s quarterly refinery profit was six times as big in 2026, despite processing less crude and selling less products.

“The return on refining, on a percentage basis, has skyrocketed,” Seng said. “Oil right now is priced what it is priced because of the Iran war. But in the meantime, the refineries are making money hand over fist.”

The global refining market is under-supplied, and with countries such as Russia and China no longer exporting, companies like Exxon and Chevron have to pick it up, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “The world is going to be short jet fuel, diesel and gasoline, so we’ll probably continue to see higher profits there.”

Globally, not all refineries have been able to get the supply of crude oil they need to meet demand since the conflict began, said Timothy Fitzgerald, a University of Tennessee professor of business economics who studies the petroleum industry.

As a result, refineries that have ample oil to work with, including those in the U.S., are turning high profits, particularly when they make jet fuel and diesel, which is priced about 41% higher in the U.S. than before the Strait of Hormuz was blocked.

"If you’re a company that owns a bunch of refinery capacity, things look pretty good," Fitzgerald said.

American refineries are running at near-full capacity and poised to benefit because some refineries in the Middle East and Russia were damaged. And Asia can't get the amount of Middle East oil needed for refining.

“Ultimately, users of the energy services pay,” Fitzgerald said. “Consumers, people like you and me buying retail motor gasoline or diesel fuel or airplane tickets. But it also means that almost everything else we buy has an embedded energy content to it ... and this is where you start to worry about it driving increases in costs.”

Not all oil and gas companies benefit in the same way

In the present geopolitical environment, some companies are winners while others are losers, Fitzgerald said.

“If you’re a company like a U.S. (oil) producer, even a U.S.-based international company like an Exxon or Chevron who’s got lots of production outside the Gulf, things are good. You’re selling your product at a higher price,” he said.

But companies in the Middle East that are not able to benefit from higher prices because they are struggling to get their liquefied natural gas out of the Persian Gulf or have a lot of damaged oil fields or processing facilities have a very different take on recent events, Fitzgerald added.

“Your ability to sell anything and the volume that you may be getting out is so curtailed that your revenues are way down and you’re incurring higher transportation costs and security costs,” he said.

Exxon and Chevron weren’t as profitable in the first quarter due to the way oil is traded; the first real opportunity they had to take advantage of higher prices oil was in April. Companies that had a lot of oil stored in floating tankers and available for spot-market trading, including some European ones, were able to benefit from March’s higher oil prices, Seng said.

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