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Houston energy expert shares key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025

Houston energy leader Barbara Burger shared her key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025 with InnovationMap. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

What a difference a year makes.

I have been coming to CERAWeek for as long as I can remember and the Agora track within CERAWeek since it originated. Although freshness likely distorts my thinking, I cannot remember a CERAWeek that seemed so different from the previous year's than this one.

This certainly isn’t a comprehensive summary of the conference, but some of my key take forwards from last week's events.

It’s all about power.

It seemed like everyone associated with the power value chain showed up. Developers, turbine manufacturers, utilities, oil and gas, renewables, geothermal, nuclear, storage, hyperscalers, and lots of innovative companies that aim to squeeze more out of the grid we already have. Most of the companies embraced the “all of the above” sentiment and despite moderators (and some key notes) attempt to force technology picks, most didn’t take the bait.

Practical is in.

Real issues – choke points in supply chains and the workforce, permit timing, cost increases in new generation – were openly discussed both on the stage and in the countless meetings and meet ups in partner rooms and in open spaces throughout the Hilton Americas and the GR Brown.

AI was everywhere.

While there was an understanding that not all the power load growth is coming from AI and Data Centers, that segment was getting all the attention. AI went beyond the retail and human enablement to AI for Optimization and AI for Innovation. The symbiosis of Tech and Energy was evident – power is a constraint, and AI is a game changer. S&P (CERAWeek’s organizer) did a great job of weaving this theme across the conference in both the Executive and Agora sessions.

More gas… and less hydrogen.

Whether it was LNG or gas to power or methane emission management, the US’s dominance in gas was front and center. Hydrogen was largely absent from the Executive talks and where it was topical in the Agora sessions, the need for better economics was made clear.

Consistency and balance are needed for this sector.

I am unsure whether it is a “stay calm and carry on” approach, as one leader fashioned, or rather a “carry on” message and imperative. Phrases like “one extreme to another” were heard on stage and in the hallways. The oil and gas CEOs talked more openly about their base business than they had in the last four years but they also talked about their decarbonization activities as well as commercialization of new technologies and value chains.

The macro-economic picture cast long shadows.

While few talks onstage addressed tariffs, consumer sentiment, inflation and unemployment (including those from government officials), the talks in the halls and private meetings certainly did. And while some argued that “the end justifies the means,” it wasn’t an argument that most seemed to buy into.

There is a lot of tripping up on labels.

Politics makes our sector more polarizing than it should or needs to be. Climatetech, Sustainability, Cleantech – some were labels with broad objectives, and some were meant to be binary or exclusionary. "Energy Transition" for some meant a binary replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, and for others, it meant an evolution of a system in multiple dimensions. In any event, a lot of energy is being spent on the labels and the narratives. I don’t have an easy answer for this other than to fall back to longer discussions and less use of labels that have lots of meanings and can quickly move a constructive discussion onto the third rail.

Collaboration is key and vital in this uncertain world.

The attendance of approximately 10,000 spanned the breadth of energy, those who make, move, and use it from around the globe—in other words, everyone—with a strong tone of inclusion. CERAWeek, after all, is all about convening and collaboration, and this played out in the programming and the networking. The messages about practicality, consistency, balance and “all of the above” and the storm clouds of the extremes seemed to put everyone in a similar boat: Am I being too hopeful that this will lead to more and more collaboration within the sector to advance the multiple aims of affordability, reliability, security, resiliency and sustainability?

The next-generation workforce is a strategic imperative.

The NextGen cohort in Agora was launched with 100+ graduate students from all over coming to see the energy sector close up. Kudos to S&P for making this investment and to all the conference attendees who spent time talking to the students about their research, their interests, and, importantly, sharing their career stories. Relationships were born at CERAWeek.

Houston showed well for the conference and Mother Nature played nice. The days were sunny and dry, and the evening temperatures fit the outdoor events well. The schedule and pace of CERAWeek is exhausting, and most people were worn out by Thursday.

CERAWeek 2025 is in the books; the connections made, and messages heard set the tone for the year ahead.

Until CERAWeek 2026.

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Barbara J. Burger is a startup adviser and mentor. She is the independent Director of Bloom Energy and is an advisor to numerous organizations, including Lazard Inc., Syzygy Plasmonics, Energy Impact Partners and others. She previously led corporate innovation for two decades at Chevron and served on the board of directors for Greentown Labs.

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A View From HETI

Exxon Mobil and Chevron made big profits in spring 2026. Photo via Chevron

American oil and gas giants raked in massive spring profits while fighting between Iran and the U.S. impeded petroleum shipments and consumers around the world paid more for fuel and confronted shortages.

The conflict, now in its sixth month, halted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that previously served as a delivery route for a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. With global supplies constrained, prices for Brent crude, the international standard, soared from about $70 to above $100 a barrel for much of March, April and May, and at one point reached $126.

The money that oil companies accrued between the beginning of April and the end of June could receive extra scrutiny this year. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices climbed sharply during that period, increasing costs for drivers and airline passengers. Supplies ran low in some countries, leading to sporadic fuel rationing in Australia and government office closures in Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Spring, Texas-based Exxon Mobil reported that its second quarter profits doubled to $14.53 billion, boosted by record diesel production. The oil giant brought in $116.02 billion in revenue, up 42%.

Chevron, based in Houston, nearly quadrupled its profits to $12.07 billion and revenue jumped 56% to $70.06 billion.

Six of Europe’s largest oil companies posted combined first-quarter profits of $22 billion, more than 40% higher than last year.

“There are constituencies around the world who are having a very good crisis, and the oil producers are one of them,” said Patrick Galey, fossil fuels lead at Global Witness, a nonprofit organization that investigates environmental issues. “When you compare that to the hundreds of millions of people who are struggling with rolling blackouts, with electricity curbs, rationing, waiting in line for food queues, or the disruption to fertilizers and the potential impact that that has on food prices, we don’t think that it’s a justifiable price for the rest of the world to be paying.”

Lawmakers propose taxing major oil producers for war windfalls

Energy companies such as Exxon and Chevron do not set the price of American oil, which ricocheted from $68 to $115 a barrel during the quarter. It’s driven by supply and demand, and what traders, refiners and other buyers are willing to pay.

Nevertheless, Democrats in Congress introduced bills in March to tax major oil producers for profits they show from 2026 onward and have the tax proceeds redistributed to consumers.

“It’s fair to put a windfall profits tax on inordinate windfall profits rather than cut off children’s food programs,” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat who introduced the Senate version of the legislation.

Whitehouse's measure and a companion bill introduced by U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna of California would amend the U.S. tax code to impose a per-barrel tax on companies that produced or imported at least 300,000 barrels of oil per day in 2025.

“We cracked $4 again per gallon last weekend in gas stations that I drove by, and that’s a big expense, particularly for families that get their income from driving around from job to job in the work van or the work truck,” Whitehouse said.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S., which was below $3 before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, reached $4.11 Friday, July 31, about $1 more than last year at this time.

The UK and other European countries implemented temporary windfall profits taxes on fossil fuel companies in 2022. The UK extended that to 2030, according to Tax Foundation Europe.

“Penalizing the businesses who stood by those countries and provided that product going forward is very short-sighted,” Exxon CEO Darren Woods said in a call with investors Friday. “We canceled investments that we had planned for Europe based on the last time they passed a windfall profits tax.”

Refineries rake in cash while consumers pay more for fuel

Outfits such as Exxon and Chevron, which also own refineries, are in the best position to profit from the current market conditions, said Tom Seng, assistant professor of energy finance at Texas Christian University.

Refineries turn oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and home heating oil. Higher prices for those products meant Chevron’s quarterly refinery profit was six times as big in 2026, despite processing less crude and selling less products.

“The return on refining, on a percentage basis, has skyrocketed,” Seng said. “Oil right now is priced what it is priced because of the Iran war. But in the meantime, the refineries are making money hand over fist.”

The global refining market is under-supplied, and with countries such as Russia and China no longer exporting, companies like Exxon and Chevron have to pick it up, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital. “The world is going to be short jet fuel, diesel and gasoline, so we’ll probably continue to see higher profits there.”

Globally, not all refineries have been able to get the supply of crude oil they need to meet demand since the conflict began, said Timothy Fitzgerald, a University of Tennessee professor of business economics who studies the petroleum industry.

As a result, refineries that have ample oil to work with, including those in the U.S., are turning high profits, particularly when they make jet fuel and diesel, which is priced about 41% higher in the U.S. than before the Strait of Hormuz was blocked.

"If you’re a company that owns a bunch of refinery capacity, things look pretty good," Fitzgerald said.

American refineries are running at near-full capacity and poised to benefit because some refineries in the Middle East and Russia were damaged. And Asia can't get the amount of Middle East oil needed for refining.

“Ultimately, users of the energy services pay,” Fitzgerald said. “Consumers, people like you and me buying retail motor gasoline or diesel fuel or airplane tickets. But it also means that almost everything else we buy has an embedded energy content to it ... and this is where you start to worry about it driving increases in costs.”

Not all oil and gas companies benefit in the same way

In the present geopolitical environment, some companies are winners while others are losers, Fitzgerald said.

“If you’re a company like a U.S. (oil) producer, even a U.S.-based international company like an Exxon or Chevron who’s got lots of production outside the Gulf, things are good. You’re selling your product at a higher price,” he said.

But companies in the Middle East that are not able to benefit from higher prices because they are struggling to get their liquefied natural gas out of the Persian Gulf or have a lot of damaged oil fields or processing facilities have a very different take on recent events, Fitzgerald added.

“Your ability to sell anything and the volume that you may be getting out is so curtailed that your revenues are way down and you’re incurring higher transportation costs and security costs,” he said.

Exxon and Chevron weren’t as profitable in the first quarter due to the way oil is traded; the first real opportunity they had to take advantage of higher prices oil was in April. Companies that had a lot of oil stored in floating tankers and available for spot-market trading, including some European ones, were able to benefit from March’s higher oil prices, Seng said.

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