Houston energy leader Barbara Burger shared her key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025 with InnovationMap. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

What a difference a year makes.

I have been coming to CERAWeek for as long as I can remember and the Agora track within CERAWeek since it originated. Although freshness likely distorts my thinking, I cannot remember a CERAWeek that seemed so different from the previous year's than this one.

This certainly isn’t a comprehensive summary of the conference, but some of my key take forwards from last week's events.

It’s all about power.

It seemed like everyone associated with the power value chain showed up. Developers, turbine manufacturers, utilities, oil and gas, renewables, geothermal, nuclear, storage, hyperscalers, and lots of innovative companies that aim to squeeze more out of the grid we already have. Most of the companies embraced the “all of the above” sentiment and despite moderators (and some key notes) attempt to force technology picks, most didn’t take the bait.

Practical is in.

Real issues – choke points in supply chains and the workforce, permit timing, cost increases in new generation – were openly discussed both on the stage and in the countless meetings and meet ups in partner rooms and in open spaces throughout the Hilton Americas and the GR Brown.

AI was everywhere.

While there was an understanding that not all the power load growth is coming from AI and Data Centers, that segment was getting all the attention. AI went beyond the retail and human enablement to AI for Optimization and AI for Innovation. The symbiosis of Tech and Energy was evident – power is a constraint, and AI is a game changer. S&P (CERAWeek’s organizer) did a great job of weaving this theme across the conference in both the Executive and Agora sessions.

More gas… and less hydrogen.

Whether it was LNG or gas to power or methane emission management, the US’s dominance in gas was front and center. Hydrogen was largely absent from the Executive talks and where it was topical in the Agora sessions, the need for better economics was made clear.

Consistency and balance are needed for this sector.

I am unsure whether it is a “stay calm and carry on” approach, as one leader fashioned, or rather a “carry on” message and imperative. Phrases like “one extreme to another” were heard on stage and in the hallways. The oil and gas CEOs talked more openly about their base business than they had in the last four years but they also talked about their decarbonization activities as well as commercialization of new technologies and value chains.

The macro-economic picture cast long shadows.

While few talks onstage addressed tariffs, consumer sentiment, inflation and unemployment (including those from government officials), the talks in the halls and private meetings certainly did. And while some argued that “the end justifies the means,” it wasn’t an argument that most seemed to buy into.

There is a lot of tripping up on labels.

Politics makes our sector more polarizing than it should or needs to be. Climatetech, Sustainability, Cleantech – some were labels with broad objectives, and some were meant to be binary or exclusionary. "Energy Transition" for some meant a binary replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, and for others, it meant an evolution of a system in multiple dimensions. In any event, a lot of energy is being spent on the labels and the narratives. I don’t have an easy answer for this other than to fall back to longer discussions and less use of labels that have lots of meanings and can quickly move a constructive discussion onto the third rail.

Collaboration is key and vital in this uncertain world.

The attendance of approximately 10,000 spanned the breadth of energy, those who make, move, and use it from around the globe—in other words, everyone—with a strong tone of inclusion. CERAWeek, after all, is all about convening and collaboration, and this played out in the programming and the networking. The messages about practicality, consistency, balance and “all of the above” and the storm clouds of the extremes seemed to put everyone in a similar boat: Am I being too hopeful that this will lead to more and more collaboration within the sector to advance the multiple aims of affordability, reliability, security, resiliency and sustainability?

The next-generation workforce is a strategic imperative.

The NextGen cohort in Agora was launched with 100+ graduate students from all over coming to see the energy sector close up. Kudos to S&P for making this investment and to all the conference attendees who spent time talking to the students about their research, their interests, and, importantly, sharing their career stories. Relationships were born at CERAWeek.

Houston showed well for the conference and Mother Nature played nice. The days were sunny and dry, and the evening temperatures fit the outdoor events well. The schedule and pace of CERAWeek is exhausting, and most people were worn out by Thursday.

CERAWeek 2025 is in the books; the connections made, and messages heard set the tone for the year ahead.

Until CERAWeek 2026.

------

Barbara J. Burger is a startup adviser and mentor. She is the independent Director of Bloom Energy and is an advisor to numerous organizations, including Lazard Inc., Syzygy Plasmonics, Energy Impact Partners and others. She previously led corporate innovation for two decades at Chevron and served on the board of directors for Greentown Labs.

TotalEnergies has started up two new solar farms in Texas. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

TotalEnergies powers up its largest utility-scale solar farms in Texas

ready to shine

TotalEnergies has begun the commercial operations of two utility-scale solar farms with integrated battery storage located in southeast Texas.

The two farms are located in Cottonwood and Danish Fields, which is TotalEnergies’ largest solar farm in the United States.

“The start-ups of Danish Fields and Cottonwood in the fast-growing ERCOT market showcase TotalEnergies’ ability to deliver competitive renewable electricity to support our clients’ decarbonization goals, as well as our own,” Olivier Jouny, senior vice president of renewables at TotalEnergies, says in a news release.

The new projects have a combined capacity of 1.2 gigawatts. They are part of a portfolio of renewable assets totaling 4 gigawatts in operation or under construction currently in Texas. Danish Fields holds a capacity of 720 megawatts peak and 1.4 million ground-mounted photovoltaic panels.

Cottonwood, with a capacity of 455 megawatts peak featuring over 847,000 ground-mounted photovoltaic panels, will also feature 225 megawatt hours of battery storage supplied by Saft. This is scheduled for commissioning in 2025. The electricity production is contracted under long-term PPAs indexed to “merchant prices through an upside-sharing mechanism with LyondellBasell and Saint-Gobain,” per thenews release. The deal is to help support the companies’ decarbonization efforts.

Seventy percent of Danish’s solar capacity has been contracted through long-term Corporate Power Purchase Agreements signed with Saint-Gobain, which feature an upside sharing mechanism indexed on merchant price. The other 30 percent is intended to support the decarbonization of TotalEnergies’ industrial plants in the Gulf Coast region. The projects will cover the electricity consumption of TotalEnergies’ industrial sites in Port Arthur and La Porte in Texas, and Carville in Louisiana, which include Myrtle Solar that was commissioned in 2023 and the under-construction Hill 1 solar farm.

In addition to the solar farms, TotalEnergies has also added 1.5 gigawatt of flexible power production capacity with three gas-fired power plants they acquired in Texas.

“Thanks to these projects, we are delighted to take another step in delivering our strategy across the entire value chain, from power generation to customer delivery, in order to achieve our profitability target of 12 (percent return on average capital employed) in our Integrated Power business,” Jouny adds in the release.

Greentown Labs has a new Terawatt Partner. Photo courtesy of Greentown Labs

TotalEnergies signs on as top-level partner at climatetech incubator

onboarding

Greentown Labs, dual located in Houston and Somerville, Massachusetts, has named its latest top-level partner.

TotalEnergies has joined the incubator at the the highest level of partnership — the Terawatt level — Greentown Labs announced on January 23. Through the partnership, TotalEnergies will have access to Greentown's membership of clean energy startups and event programming.

Lotfi Hedhli, president at TotalEnergies Research & Technology U.S., will participate on Greentown’s Industry Leadership Council, providing strategic guidance to the incubator.

“We are excited to join Greentown Labs and its ecosystem to catalyze the development of potential decarbonization technologies through collaboration with promising startups,” Hedhli says in a news release. “This partnership with Greentown Labs will focus in particular on the deployment and use of renewables and low-carbon solutions, which are critical to our ambition to achieve carbon neutrality.”

TotalEnergies is among the world's largest utility-scale solar developers with activity in over 30 states in the country, including a Houston-area solar farm that went online in October. Additionally, TotalEnergies announced in November that it signed an agreement with TexGen to acquire $635 million three gas-fired power plants with a total capacity of 1.5 GW in Texas.

“At Greentown Labs, we continue to recognize and appreciate the role energy leaders play in the clean energy transition and we’re proud to have TotalEnergies join us as a Terawatt Partner,” Greentown Labs CEO and President Kevin Knobloch says in the news release. “We applaud the meaningful steps TotalEnergies is taking to expand its renewable energy portfolio and generation, and we’re eager to have their team of experts engaging directly with our climatetech entrepreneurs.”

Greentown last named a Terawatt Partner — GE Vernova — last fall.

TotalEnergies' new solar farm outside of Houston is the size of 1,800 football fields. Photo via totalenergies.com

Global energy company opens solar farm outside of Houston

up & running

A global energy corporation has a new solar farm online and operating just outside of Houston.

TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) has started commercial operations of its new solar farm, Myrtle Solar, just south of Houston. The farm has a capacity of 380 megawatts peak of solar production and 225 MWh of co-located batteries. Spread across the space — which is about the size of 1,800 football fields — are 705,000 solar panels producing enough electricity to power 70,000 homes.

Seventy percent of the power generated will be sourced for TotalEnergies' industrial plants in the U.S. Gulf Coast region, and the remaining 30 percent will be used by Kilroy Realty, a publicly traded real estate company, per a 15-year corporate power purchase agreement.

“We are very proud to start up Myrtle, TotalEnergies’ largest-to-date operated utility-scale solar farm with storage in the United States. This startup is another milestone in achieving our goal to build an integrated and profitable position in Texas, where ERCOT is the main electrical grid operator," Vincent Stoquart, senior vice president of renewables at TotalEnergies, says in the release. "Besides, the project will enable the Company to cover the power needs of some of its biggest U.S. industrial sites with electricity from a renewable source."

The farm is part of the company’s Go Green Project that is hoping to enable the company to cover its power needs by 2025, as well as curtail the Scope 1+2 emissions of its industrial sites in the Gulf Coast area, including Port Arthur and La Porte in Texas and Carville, Louisiana.

“Given the advantages that IRA tax exemptions are generating, we will continue to actively develop our 25 GW portfolio of projects in operation or development in the United States, to contribute to the Company’s global power generation target of more than 100 TWh by 2030,” Stoquart continues.

Myrtle Solar is also equipped with 114 high-tech Energy Storage Systems with a total capacity of 225 MWh. The technology was provided by TotalEnergies' affiliate Saft.

The world can't keep on with what it's doing and expect to reach its goals when it comes to climate change. Radical innovations are needed at this point, writes Scott Nyquist. Photo via Getty Images

Only radical innovation can get the world to its climate goals, says this Houston expert

guest column

Almost 3 years ago, McKinsey published a report arguing that limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was “technically achievable,” but that the “math is daunting.” Indeed, when the 1.5°C figure was agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference, the assumption was that emissions would peak before 2025, and then fall 43 percent by 2030.

Given that 2022 saw the highest emissions ever—36.8 gigatons—the math is now more daunting still: cuts would need to be greater, and faster, than envisioned in Paris. Perhaps that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted March 20 (with “high confidence”) that it was “likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century.”

I agree with that gloomy assessment. Given the rate of progress so far, 1.5°C looks all but impossible. That puts me in the company of people like Bill Gates; the Economist; the Australian Academy of Science, and apparently many IPCC scientists. McKinsey has estimated that even if all countries deliver on their net zero commitments, temperatures will likely be 1.7°C higher in 2100.

In October, the UN Environment Program argued that there was “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” and called for “an urgent system-wide transformation” to change the trajectory. Among the changes it considers necessary: carbon taxes, land use reform, dietary changes in which individuals “consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction,” investment of $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year; applying current technology to all new buildings; no new fossil fuel infrastructure. And so on.

Let’s assume that the UNEP is right. What are the chances of all this happening in the next few years? Or, indeed, any of it? President Obama’s former science adviser, Daniel Schrag, put it this way: “ Who believes that we can halve global emissions by 2030?... It’s so far from reality that it’s kind of absurd.”

Having a goal is useful, concentrating minds and organizing effort. And I think that has been the case with 1.5°C, or recent commitments to get to net zero. Targets create a sense of urgency that has led to real progress on decarbonization.

The 2020 McKinsey report set out how to get on the 1.5°C pathway, and was careful to note that this was not a description of probability or reality but “a picture of a world that could be.” Three years later, that “world that could be” looks even more remote.

Consider the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter. In 2021, 79 percent of primary energy demand (see chart) was met by fossil fuels, about the same as a decade before. Globally, the figures are similar, with renewables accounting for just 12.5 percent of consumption and low-emissions nuclear another 4 percent. Those numbers would have to basically reverse in the next decade or so to get on track. I don’t see how that can happen.

No alt text provided for this image

Credit: Energy Information Administration

But even if 1.5°C is improbable in the short term, that doesn’t mean that missing the target won’t have consequences. And it certainly doesn’t mean giving up on addressing climate change. And in fact, there are some positive trends. Many companies are developing comprehensive plans for achieving net-zero emissions and are making those plans part of their long-term strategy. Moreover, while global emissions grew 0.9 percent in 2022, that was much less than GDP growth (3.2 percent). It’s worth noting, too, that much of the increase came from switching from gas to coal in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine; that is the kind of supply shock that can be reversed. The point is that growth and emissions no longer move in lockstep; rather the opposite. That is critical because poorer countries are never going to take serious climate action if they believe it threatens their future prosperity.

Another implication is that limiting emissions means addressing the use of fossil fuels. As noted, even with the substantial rise in the use of renewables, coal, gas, and oil are still the core of the global energy system. They cannot be wished away. Perhaps it is time to think differently—that is, making fossil fuels more emissions efficient, by using carbon capture or other technologies; cutting methane emissions; and electrifying oil and gas operations. This is not popular among many climate advocates, who would prefer to see fossil fuels “stay in the ground.” That just isn’t happening. The much likelier scenario is that they are gradually displaced. McKinsey projects peak oil demand later this decade, for example, and for gas, maybe sometime in the late 2030s. Even after the peak, though, oil and gas will still be important for decades.

Second, in the longer term, it may be possible to get back onto 1.5°C if, in addition to reducing emissions, we actually remove them from the atmosphere, in the form of “negative emissions,” such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in power and heavy industry. The IPCC itself assumed negative emissions would play a major role in reaching the 1.5°C target; in fact, because of cost and deployment problems, it’s been tiny.

Finally, as I have argued before, it’s hard to see how we limit warming even to 2°C without more nuclear power, which can provide low-emissions energy 24/7, and is the largest single source of such power right now.

None of these things is particularly popular; none get the publicity of things like a cool new electric truck or an offshore wind farm (of which two are operating now in the United States, generating enough power for about 20,000 homes; another 40 are in development). And we cannot assume fast development of offshore wind. NIMBY concerns have already derailed some high-profile projects, and are also emerging in regard to land-based wind farms.

Carbon capture, negative emissions, and nuclear will have to face NIMBY, too. But they all have the potential to move the needle on emissions. Think of the potential if fast-growing India and China, for example, were to develop an assembly line of small nuclear reactors. Of course, the economics have to make sense—something that is true for all climate-change technologies.

And as the UN points out, there needs to be progress on other issues, such as food, buildings, and finance. I don’t think we can assume that such progress will happen on a massive scale in the next few years; the actual record since Paris demonstrates the opposite. That is troubling: the IPCC notes that the risks of abrupt and damaging impacts, such as flooding and crop yields, rise “with every increment of global warming.” But it is the reality.

There is one way to get us to 1.5°C, although not in the Paris timeframe: a radical acceleration of innovation. The approaches being scaled now, such as wind, solar, and batteries, are the same ideas that were being discussed 30 years ago. We are benefiting from long-term, incremental improvements, not disruptive innovation. To move the ball down the field quickly, though, we need to complete a Hail Mary pass.

It’s a long shot. But we’re entering an era of accelerated innovation, driven by advanced computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning that could narrow the odds. For example, could carbon nanotubes displace demand for high-emissions steel? Might it be possible to store carbon deep in the ocean? Could geo-engineering bend the curve?

I believe that, on the whole, the world is serious about climate change. I am certain that the energy transition is happening. But I don’t think we are anywhere near to being on track to hit the 1.5°C target. And I don’t see how doing more of the same will get us there.

------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

Learn more about the specific missions the Houston Energy Transition Initiative is focused on — from carbon management to finding funding. Photo via htxenergytransition.com

Houston: Where energy leaders create a low-carbon future

the view from heti

Houston is the energy capital of the world, and it faces a dual challenge: fulfilling growing global energy demand while actively reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

This is why energy leaders have come together at the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, within the Greater Houston Partnership, to strengthen the region’s position for an energy-abundant, low-carbon future. HETI’s impact work is conducted through sector-specific working groups that leverage Houston’s competitive advantage. These working groups include: Carbon Capture, Use and Storage (CCUS), Clean Hydrogen, Capital Formation, Power Management, and Industry Decarbonization.

Texas Gulf Coast as a hub for carbon management

The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that CCUS is a requirement to any realistic pathway to a low-carbon, even net-zero future. This is especially true in the Houston area, which is home to one of the nation’s largest concentrated sources of carbon dioxide. Houston has the geology, knowledge, and infrastructure to support CCUS at scale. The CCUS Working Group at HETI supports key policy enablers of scaling CCUS, including supporting the state to earn permitting authority (primacy) over carbon capture (Class VI) wells. The working group is also analyzing the cumulative impacts of carbon capture on the region’s existing infrastructure and identifying key infrastructure needs for CCUS to reach scale.

Gulf Coast preparing for clean hydrogen liftoff

The Clean Hydrogen working group has created an ecosystem for Houston to lead the clean hydrogen market. The Texas Gulf Coast region is currently home to the world’s largest hydrogen system. By assessing the impact of hydrogen on the economy and the environment, this working group is positioning Houston to be a leading clean hydrogen hub.

Houston as a leader in Industry decarbonization

Houston needs technologies including but not limited to clean hydrogen and CCUS for decarbonization. The HETI Decarbonization Working Group partners with the Mission Possible Partnership and Rocky Mountain Institute to provide a measurable baseline of emissions and identify recommendations for decarbonization pathways in the Houston region.

An energy-abundant, low-carbon future will impact our region’s power management

It is expected that there will be changes in supply and demand of electricity associated with proposed energy transition and decarbonization projects in the Houston area. HETI has partnered with Mission Possible Partnership and Rocky Mountain Institute to assess the impact of energy transition and decarbonization on the growth and resilience of Houston’s regional power grid and the transmission and distribution of energy.

Making Houston a hub for energy transition finance

Financing energy projects is extremely capital intensive. Houston currently serves as a hub for implementing new technologies, and it has the potential to become a major center for financing innovative energy solutions. This includes everything from more efficient, lower-carbon production of existing resources to technological breakthroughs in energy efficiency, renewables, energy storage, and nature-based solutions. For technological breakthroughs, Houston needs a consistent flow of capital to the region, including sources and financing models from venture capital to growth capital, to debt markets and government grants. HETI’s Capital Formation Working Group has mapped inflows and outflows of capital for the energy transition in Houston and found that we need to grow Houston’s capital inflows ten times by 2040 to $150 billion per year to lead the transition. The Working Group regularly convenes for learning sessions on capital markets.

Over the last year, HETI’s working groups have moved from strategy to impact. To learn more about the outcomes of these working groups, check out these resources.

------

This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

CenterPoint Energy names new COO as resiliency initiatives continue

new hire

CenterPoint Energy has named Jesus Soto Jr. as its new executive vice president and chief operating officer.

An energy industry veteran with deep ties to Texas, Soto will oversee the company's electric operations, gas operations, safety, supply chain, and customer care functions. The company says Soto will also focus on improving reliability and meeting the increased energy needs in the states CenterPoint serves.

"We are pleased to be able to welcome a leader of Jesus Soto's caliber to CenterPoint's executive team,” Jason Wells, CEO and president of CenterPoint, said in a news release. “We have one of the most dynamic growth stories in the industry, and over the next five years we will deliver over $31 billion of investments across our footprint as part of our capital plan. Jesus's deep understanding and background are the perfect match to help us deliver this incredible scope of work at-pace that will foster the economic development and growth demands in our key markets. He will also be instrumental in helping us continue to focus on improving safety and delivering better reliability for all the communities we are fortunate to serve.”

Soto comes to CenterPoint with over 30 years of experience in leading large teams and executing large scale capital projects. As a longtime Houstonian, he served in roles as executive vice president of Quanta Services and COO for Mears Group Inc. He also served in senior leadership roles at other utility and energy companies, including PG&E Corporation in Northern California and El Paso Corp. in Houston.

Soto has a bachelor's degree in civil engineering from the University of Texas at El Paso, and a master's degree in civil engineering from Texas A&M University. He has a second master's degree in business administration from the University of Phoenix.

“I'm excited to join CenterPoint's high-performing team,” Soto said in the news release. “It's a true privilege to be able to serve our 7 million customers in Texas, Indiana, Ohio and Minnesota. We have an incredible amount of capital work ahead of us to help meet the growing energy needs of our customers and communities, especially across Texas.”

Soto will join the company on Aug. 11 and report to Wells as CenterPoint continues on its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative and Systemwide Resiliency Plan.

“To help realize our resiliency and growth goals, I look forward to helping our teams deliver this work safely while helping our customers experience better outcomes,” Soto added in the news release. “They expect, and deserve, no less.”

Oil markets on edge: Geopolitics, supply risks, and what comes next

guest column

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”