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States brace for Trump's push to make oil drilling cheap again

Energy news

Trump and Republicans in Congress say the rate reset will boost energy production, jobs and affordability. Photo via Getty Images

A Republican push to make drilling cheaper on federal land is creating new fiscal pressure for states that depend on oil and gas revenue, most notably in New Mexico as it expands early childhood education and saves for the future.

The shift stems from the sweeping law President Donald Trump signed in July that rolls back the minimum federal royalty rate to 12.5%. That rate — the share of production value companies must pay to the government — held steady for a century under the 1920 Mineral Leasing Act. It was raised to 16.7% under the Biden administration in 2022.

Trump and Republicans in Congress say the rate reset will boost energy production, jobs and affordability as the administration clears the way for expanded drilling and mining on public lands.

States receive nearly half the money collected through federal royalties, depending on where production takes place. The environment and economics research group Resources for the Future estimates a roughly $6 billion drop in collections over the coming decade.

The stakes are highest in New Mexico, the largest recipient of federal mineral lease payments. The state could could forgo $1.7 billion by 2035 and as much as $5.1 billion by 2050, according to calculations by economist Brian Prest at Resources for the Future.

More than one-third of the general fund budget in the Democratically-led state is tied to the oil and gas industry.

“New Mexico’s impact is way bigger than Wyoming or Colorado or North Dakota,” Prest said, “and that’s just because that’s where the action is on new development.”

The effects will unfold gradually, since federal leases allow a 10-year window to begin drilling and production. Still, state officials say they're already prepping for leaner years.

“It all hurts when you’re losing revenues," said Democratic state Sen. George Muñoz of Gallup, who said lawmakers still hope to invest more in mental health care and support Medicaid, even if federal royalty payments decline. “We’ve learned that until the chicken’s got feathers, we’re not even looking at it."

The higher federal royalty rate was in place for roughly three years while leasing activity was muted, Prest said. New Mexico budget forecasters never tallied the additional income.

New Mexico's nest-egg strategy

A nearly five-fold surge in local oil production since 2017 on federal and state land in New Mexico delivered a financial windfall for state government, helping fund higher teacher salaries, tuition-free college, universal free school meals and more.

The state set aside billions of dollars in investment trusts for future spending in case the world’s thirst for oil falters, including a early childhood education fund to help expand preschool, child care subsidies and home wellness visits for pregnancies and infants.

The state's investment nest egg has grown to $64 billion, second only to Alaska's Permanent Fund. Earnings from the trusts are New Mexico's second-biggest source for general fund spending.

That sturdy financial footing shaped a defiant response to this year’s federal government shutdown, when lawmakers voted to subsidize the state’s Affordable Care Act exchange, cover food assistance and backfill cuts to public broadcasting.

But lawmakers reviewing state finances learned that predictable income fell 1.6% — the first contraction since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Muñoz said matters would be worse if the state had not raised its own royalty rates this year to 25%, from 20%, for new leases on prime oil and gas tracts, while ending a sales moratorium, under legislation he co-sponsored this year.

Encouraged in Alaska

After New Mexico, the states receiving the most federal oil and gas royalties are Wyoming, Louisiana, North Dakota and Texas.

Texas, the nation’s top oil producer, shares the bountiful Permian Basin with New Mexico but has far less federal land and therefore less exposure to changes in royalty policy.

In Alaska, state officials say they are encouraged by the royalty cut, seeing potential for increased development in places like the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, where the massive Willow project — approved in 2023 and now under development — is viewed by some as a catalyst for further activity. The reserve is expected to hold its first lease sales since 2019.

“If reduced federal royalty rates stimulate new leasing, exploration and production, that also could increase other kinds of revenue,” said Lorraine Henry, a spokesperson for Alaska’s Department of Natural Resources.

In North Dakota, federal royalties are split evenly between the state and county governments where drilling occurs. State Office of Management and Budget Director Joe Morrissette said the industry’s future remains difficult to forecast.

“There are so many variables, including timing, price, availability of desirable tracts, and federal policies regarding exploration activities,” Morrissette said.

Houston energy leader Barbara Burger shared her key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025 with InnovationMap. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

Houston energy expert shares key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025

guest column

What a difference a year makes.

I have been coming to CERAWeek for as long as I can remember and the Agora track within CERAWeek since it originated. Although freshness likely distorts my thinking, I cannot remember a CERAWeek that seemed so different from the previous year's than this one.

This certainly isn’t a comprehensive summary of the conference, but some of my key take forwards from last week's events.

It’s all about power.

It seemed like everyone associated with the power value chain showed up. Developers, turbine manufacturers, utilities, oil and gas, renewables, geothermal, nuclear, storage, hyperscalers, and lots of innovative companies that aim to squeeze more out of the grid we already have. Most of the companies embraced the “all of the above” sentiment and despite moderators (and some key notes) attempt to force technology picks, most didn’t take the bait.

Practical is in.

Real issues – choke points in supply chains and the workforce, permit timing, cost increases in new generation – were openly discussed both on the stage and in the countless meetings and meet ups in partner rooms and in open spaces throughout the Hilton Americas and the GR Brown.

AI was everywhere.

While there was an understanding that not all the power load growth is coming from AI and Data Centers, that segment was getting all the attention. AI went beyond the retail and human enablement to AI for Optimization and AI for Innovation. The symbiosis of Tech and Energy was evident – power is a constraint, and AI is a game changer. S&P (CERAWeek’s organizer) did a great job of weaving this theme across the conference in both the Executive and Agora sessions.

More gas… and less hydrogen.

Whether it was LNG or gas to power or methane emission management, the US’s dominance in gas was front and center. Hydrogen was largely absent from the Executive talks and where it was topical in the Agora sessions, the need for better economics was made clear.

Consistency and balance are needed for this sector.

I am unsure whether it is a “stay calm and carry on” approach, as one leader fashioned, or rather a “carry on” message and imperative. Phrases like “one extreme to another” were heard on stage and in the hallways. The oil and gas CEOs talked more openly about their base business than they had in the last four years but they also talked about their decarbonization activities as well as commercialization of new technologies and value chains.

The macro-economic picture cast long shadows.

While few talks onstage addressed tariffs, consumer sentiment, inflation and unemployment (including those from government officials), the talks in the halls and private meetings certainly did. And while some argued that “the end justifies the means,” it wasn’t an argument that most seemed to buy into.

There is a lot of tripping up on labels.

Politics makes our sector more polarizing than it should or needs to be. Climatetech, Sustainability, Cleantech – some were labels with broad objectives, and some were meant to be binary or exclusionary. "Energy Transition" for some meant a binary replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, and for others, it meant an evolution of a system in multiple dimensions. In any event, a lot of energy is being spent on the labels and the narratives. I don’t have an easy answer for this other than to fall back to longer discussions and less use of labels that have lots of meanings and can quickly move a constructive discussion onto the third rail.

Collaboration is key and vital in this uncertain world.

The attendance of approximately 10,000 spanned the breadth of energy, those who make, move, and use it from around the globe—in other words, everyone—with a strong tone of inclusion. CERAWeek, after all, is all about convening and collaboration, and this played out in the programming and the networking. The messages about practicality, consistency, balance and “all of the above” and the storm clouds of the extremes seemed to put everyone in a similar boat: Am I being too hopeful that this will lead to more and more collaboration within the sector to advance the multiple aims of affordability, reliability, security, resiliency and sustainability?

The next-generation workforce is a strategic imperative.

The NextGen cohort in Agora was launched with 100+ graduate students from all over coming to see the energy sector close up. Kudos to S&P for making this investment and to all the conference attendees who spent time talking to the students about their research, their interests, and, importantly, sharing their career stories. Relationships were born at CERAWeek.

Houston showed well for the conference and Mother Nature played nice. The days were sunny and dry, and the evening temperatures fit the outdoor events well. The schedule and pace of CERAWeek is exhausting, and most people were worn out by Thursday.

CERAWeek 2025 is in the books; the connections made, and messages heard set the tone for the year ahead.

Until CERAWeek 2026.

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Barbara J. Burger is a startup adviser and mentor. She is the independent Director of Bloom Energy and is an advisor to numerous organizations, including Lazard Inc., Syzygy Plasmonics, Energy Impact Partners and others. She previously led corporate innovation for two decades at Chevron and served on the board of directors for Greentown Labs.

Houston American Energy Corp. plans to acquire Abundia Global Impact Group, which will build its first advanced plastic recycling facility in the Cedar Port Industrial Park in Baytown. Photo via Getty Images

Houston oil and gas producer expands into renewables, announces new Baytown facility

Renewables News

Houston American Energy Corp. (NYSE: HUSA), an oil and gas exploration and production company, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire New York-based Abundia Global Impact Group LLC, which specializes in converting waste into high-value fuels and chemicals.

HUSA is expected to close on the AGIG acquisition early in the second quarter and says the deal aims to provide value through “innovation in the renewable energy sector,” according to a news release.

As part of the deal, HUSA will acquire 100% of AGIG’s issued and outstanding units. HUSA will also issue to AGIG’s members a number of shares of HUSA common stock that will equal 94 percent of HUSA’s aggregate issued and outstanding common stock at the time of the closing. The company also closed a $4.42 million registered direct offering in January.

“AGIG has developed a commercially ready project for converting waste into valuable fuels and chemicals, and this transaction gives HUSA shareholders a ready-made platform and project pipeline for future value generation,” Peter Longo, CEO of Houston American Energy Corp, said in a news release. “We are witnessing the growing momentum of the fuel and chemical industry’s transformation into alternative solutions like recycled chemical alternatives and the highly publicized sustainable aviation fuel market.”

AGIG will build its first advanced plastic recycling facility in the Cedar Port Industrial Park in the Baytown area of Houston. The facility will represent the first phase of a growth plan aimed at scaling AGIG’s technologies for producing renewable fuels and chemicals from waste, according to the company. The Cedar Port facility will serve as a hub for a five-year development plan and will be designed to scale production capacity.

"We are excited to use this platform to support the deployment and development of our suite of technologies that will assist in the evolution of fuel, chemical and waste markets, providing commercial alternatives and sustainable products,” AGIG CEO Ed Gillespie said in a news release.

Texas energy experts look ahead to what's in store for oil and gas in 2025. Photo via Getty Images

Experts reveal top 6 predictions for oil and gas industry in 2025

guest column

If you tune in to the popular national narrative, 2025 will be the year the oil and gas industry receives a big, shiny gift in the form of the U.S. presidential election.

President Donald Trump’s vocal support for the industry throughout his campaign has casual observers betting on a blissful new era for oil and gas. Already there are plans to lift the pause on LNG export permits and remove tons of regulatory red tape; the nomination of Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the Department of Energy; and the new administration’s reported wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports and drilling — the list goes on.

While the outlook is positive in many of these areas, the perception of a “drill, baby, drill” bonanza masks a much more complicated reality. Oil and gas operators are facing a growing number of challenges, including intense pressure to reduce costs and boost productivity, and uncertainty caused by geopolitical factors such as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.

From our vantage point working with many of the country’s biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major implications for the industry — including the many companies based in and operating around Texas — in the coming year. Let’s dig in.

1. The industry’s cost crunch will continue — and intensify.
In 2024, oil and gas company leaders reported that rising costs and pressure to cut costs were two of the top three challenges they faced, according to a national Workrise-Newton X study that surveyed decision makers from operators and suppliers of all sizes. Respondents reported being asked to find an astonishing 40% to 60% reduction in supply chain-related costs across categories, on average.

Given the seemingly endless stream of geopolitical uncertainty (an expanded war in the Middle East, continued conflict after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s flailing economy, for starters), energy companies are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to achieving cost savings from suppliers.

With lower average oil prices expected in 2025, expect the cost crunch to continue. That’s because today’s operators have only two levers they can rely on to drive an increase in shareholder returns: reducing costs and increasing well productivity. Historically, the industry could rely on a third lever: an increase in oil demand, which, combined with limited ability to meet that demand with supply, led to steadily increasing oil prices over time. But that is no longer the case.

2. The consolidation trend in oil and gas will continue, but its shape will change.
In the wake of the great oil and gas M&A wave of 2024, the number of deals will decrease — but the number of dollars spent will not. Fewer, larger transactions will be the face of consolidation in the coming year. Expect newly merged entities to spin off non-core assets, which will create opportunities for private equity to return to the space.

This will be the year the oil and gas industry becomes investable again, with potential for multiple expansions across the entire value chain — both the E&P and the service side. From what we’re hearing in the industry, expect 2 times more startups in 2025 than there were this year.

With roughly the same amount of deals next year, but less volume and fewer total transactions, there will be more scale — more pressure from the top to push down service costs. This will lead to better service providers. But there will also be losers, and those are the service providers that cannot scale with their large clients.

3. Refilling SPR will become a national priority.
The outgoing administration pulled about 300 million barrels out of the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming year, replenishing those stores will be crucial.

There will be a steady buyer — the U.S. government — and it will reload the SPR to 600-plus million barrels. The government will be opportunistic, targeting the lowest price while taking care not to create too much imbalance in the supply-demand curve. A priority of the new administration will be to ensure they don’t create demand shocks, driving up prices for consumers while absorbing temporary oversupply that may occur due to seasonality (i.e. reduced demand in spring and fall).

The nation’s SPR was created following the 1973 oil embargo so that the U.S. has a cushion when there’s a supply disruption. With the current conflict in the Middle East continuing to intensify, the lessons learned in 1973 will be top of mind.

If OPEC + moves from defending prices to defending market share, we can expect their temporary production cuts to come back on market over time, causing oversupply and a resulting dramatic drop in oil prices. The U.S. government could absorb the balance, defending U.S. exploration and production companies while defending our country's interest in energy security. Refilling the SPR could create a hedge, protecting the American worker from this oversupply scenario.

4. The environment and emissions will remain a priority, and the economic viability of carbon capture will take center stage.
Despite speculation to the contrary, there will be a continuation of conservation efforts and emissions reduction among the biggest operators. The industry is not going to say, “Things have changed in Washington, so we no longer care about the environment.”

But there will be a shift in focus from energy alternatives that have a high degree of difficulty and cost keeping pace with increasing energy demand (think solar and wind) to technologies that are adjacent to the oil and gas industry’s core competencies. This means the industry will go all in on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, driven by both environmental concerns and operational benefits. This is already in motion with major players (EQT, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and more) investing heavily in CCS capabilities.

As the world races to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, there will be a push for carbon capture to be economical and scalable — in part because of the need for CO2 for operations in the business. In the not-so-distant future, we believe some operators will be able to capture as much carbon as they're extracting from the earth.

5. The sharp rise in electricity demand to power AI data centers will rely heavily on natural gas.
Growth in technologies like generative AI and edge computing is expected to propel U.S. electricity demand to hit record highs in 2025 after staying flat for about two decades. This is a big national priority — President Trump has said we’ll need to more than double our electricity supply to lead the globe in artificial intelligence capabilities — and the urgent need for power will bring more investment in new natural gas infrastructure.

Natural gas is seen as a crucial “bridge fuel” in the energy transition. The U.S. became the world's top exporter of LNG in 2023 — and in the year ahead, brace for a huge push for pipeline infrastructure development in the range of 10-15 Bcf of new pipeline capacity in the next two to three years. (Translation: development on a massive scale, akin to railway construction during the Industrial Revolution.)

Big operators have already been working on deals to use natural gas and carbon capture to power the tech industry; given the significant increase in the electricity transmission capabilities needed to support fast-growing technologies, there will continue to be big opportunities behind the meter.

6. Regulatory processes will become more efficient, not less stringent.
This year will bring a focus on streamlining and aligning regulations, rather than on wholesale rollbacks. It’s not carte blanche for the industry to do whatever it wants, but rather a very aggressive challenge to the things that are holding operators back.

Historically, authorities have stacked regulation upon regulation and, as new problems arise, added even more regulations on top.There will be a very deliberate effort this year to challenge the regulations currently in place, to make sure they are aligned and not just stacked.

The new administration is signaling that it will be deliberate about regulation matching intent. They’ll examine whether or not particular policies are valuable to retain, or reconfigure, or realign with the industry to enable growth and also still protect the environment.

Easing the regulatory environment will enable growth in savings, lower project costs and speed to bring projects online. Another benefit of regulatory certainty: it will make large capital project financing more readily available. We’ve seen major gridlock in large project financing due to a lack of trust in the regulatory environment and potential for rules to change mid-project (see: Keystone XL). If they are certain the new administration will be supportive of projects that are viable and meet regulatory requirements, companies will once again be able to obtain the financing needed to accelerate development and commissioning of those projects.

But we shouldn’t mistake a new era of regulatory certainty for a regulatory free-for-all. Take LNG permits. They should be accelerated — but don’t expect a reduction in the actual level of environmental protection as a result. It currently takes 18 months to get a single permit to drill a well on federal land. It should take three weeks. Before 2020, it took about a month to obtain a federal permit.

2025 will be the year we begin to return to regulatory efficiency without sacrificing the protections the rules and policies set out to accomplish in the first place.

---

Adam Hirschfeld and Jacob Gritte are executives at Austin-based Workrise, the leading labor provider and source-to-pay solution for energy companies throughout Texas and beyond.

Some of those counties affected include production hot spots within the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, which straddles the New Mexico-Texas line. Photo via Getty Images

New Mexico court upholds emissions crackdown impacting oil, gas operations along Texas border

eyes on the west

The New Mexico Court of Appeals has upheld regulations aimed at cracking down on emissions in one of the nation’s top-producing oil and gas states.

The case centered on a rule adopted in 2022 by state regulators that called for curbing the pollutants that chemically react in the presence of sunlight to create ground-level ozone, commonly known as smog. High ozone levels can cause respiratory problems, including asthma and chronic bronchitis.

Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's administration has long argued that the adoption of the ozone precursor rule along with regulations to limit methane emissions from the industry were necessary to combat climate change and meet federal clean air standards.

New Mexico Environment Secretary James Kenney said the court's decision on Wednesday affirmed that the rule was properly developed and there was substantial evidence to back up its approval by regulators.

“These rules aren’t going anywhere,” Kenney said in a statement to The New Mexican, suggesting that the industry stop spending resources on legal challenges and start working to comply with New Mexico's requirements.

The Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico had argued in its appeal that the rule disproportionately affected independent operators.

“The administration needs to stop its ‘death by a thousand cuts’ hostility to the smaller, family-owned, New Mexico-based operators,” the group's executive director, Jim Winchester, said in an email to the newspaper.

The group is considering its legal options.

Under the rule, oil and gas operators must monitor emissions for smog-causing pollutants — nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds — and regularly check for and fix leaks.

The rule applies to eight counties — Chaves, Doña Ana, Eddy, Lea, Rio Arriba, Sandoval, San Juan and Valencia — where ozone pollutants have reached at least 95% of the federal ambient air quality standard. Some of those counties include production hot spots within the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, which straddles the New Mexico-Texas line.

The industry group had argued that Chaves and Rio Arriba counties shouldn’t be included. The court disagreed, saying those counties are located within broader geographic regions that did hit that 95% threshold.

The NOV Supernova Accelerator will work to cultivate relationships between startups and NOV. Photo via Getty Images

NOV's Houston accelerator names inaugural cohort to propel digital transformation in energy

building tech

Houston-based Venture Builder VC has kicked off its NOV Supernova Accelerator and named its inaugural cohort.

The program, originally announced earlier this year, focuses on accelerating digital transformation solutions for NOV Inc.'s operations in the upstream oil and gas industry. It will support high-potential startups in driving digital transformation within the energy sector, specifically upstream oil and gas, and last five months and culminate in a demo day where founders will present solutions to industry leaders, potential investors, NOV executives, and other stakeholders.

The NOV Supernova Accelerator will work to cultivate relationships between startups and NOV. They will offer specific companies access to NOV’s corporate R&D teams and business units to test their solutions in an effort to potentially develop long-term partnerships.

“The Supernova Accelerator is a reflection of our commitment to fostering forward-thinking technologies that will drive the future of oil and gas,” Diana Grauer, director of R&D of NOV, says in a news release.

The cohort’s focus will be digital transformation challenges that combine with NOV’s vision and include data management and analytics, operational efficiency, HSE (Health, Safety, and Environmental) monitoring, predictive maintenance, and digital twins.

Startups selected for the program include:

  • AnyLog, an edge data management platform that replaces proprietary edge projects with a plug-and-play solution that services real-time data directly at the source, eliminating cloud costs, data transfer, and latency issues.
  • Equipt, an AI-powered self-serve platform that maximizes Asset & Field Service performance, and minimizes downtime and profit leakages.
  • Geolumina's platform is a solution that leverages data analytics to enhance skills, scale insights, and improve efficiency for subsurface companies.
  • Gophr acts as the "Priceline" of logistics, using AI to provide instant shipping quotes and optimize dispatch for anything from paper clips to rocket ships.
  • IoT++ simplifies industrial IoT with a secure, AI-enabled ecosystem of plug-and-play edge devices.
  • Kiana's hardware-agnostic solution secures people, assets, and locations using existing Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, UWB, and cameras, helping energy and manufacturing companies reduce risks and enhance operations.
  • Novity uses AI and physics models to accurately predict machine faults, helping factory operators minimize downtime by knowing the remaining useful life of their machines.
  • Promecav is redefining crude oil conditioning with patented technology that slashes water use and energy while reducing toxic exposure for safer, cleaner, and more sustainable oil processing.
  • RaftMind's enterprise AI solution transforms how businesses manage knowledge. Our advanced platform makes it easier to process data and unlock insights from diverse sources.
  • Spindletop AI uses edge-based machine learning to make each well an autonomous, self-optimizing unit, cutting costs, emissions, and cloud dependence.
  • Taikun.ai combines generative AI with SCADA data to create virtual industrial engineers, augmenting human teams for pennies an hour.
  • Telemetry Insight’s platform utilizes high-resolution accelerometer data to simplify oilfield monitoring and optimize marginal wells for U.S. oil and gas producers via actionable insights.
  • Visual Logging utilizes fiber optic and computer vision technology to deliver real-time monitoring solutions, significantly enhancing data accuracy by providing precise insights into well casing integrity and flow conditions.

“Each startup brings unique solutions to the table, and we are eager to see how these technologies will evolve with NOV’s support and expertise,” Billy Grandy, general partner of Venture Builder VC, says in the release. “This partnership reflects our ongoing commitment to nurturing talent and driving innovation within the energy sector.”

Venture Builder VC is a consulting firm, investor, and accelerator program.

“Unlike mergers and acquisitions, the venture client model allows corporations like NOV to quickly test and implement new technologies without committing to an acquisition or risking significant investment,” Grandy previously said about the accelerator program.

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Why 2026 must be the year Texas makes transmission as its top energy priority

guest column

Texas takes pride in running one of the most dynamic and deregulated energy markets in the world, but conversations about electricity rarely focus on what keeps it moving: transmission infrastructure.

As ERCOT projects unprecedented electricity demand growth and grid operators update their forecasts for 2026, it’s becoming increasingly clear that generation, whether renewable or fossil, is only part of the solution. Transmission buildout and sound governing policy now stand as the linchpin for reliability, cost containment, and long-term resilience in a grid under unprecedented stress.

At the heart of this urgency is one simple thing: demand. Over 2024 and 2025, ERCOT has been breaking records at a pace we haven’t seen before. From January through September of 2025 alone, electricity use jumped more than 5% over the year before, the fastest growth of any major U.S. grid. And it’s not slowing down.

The Energy Information Administration expects demand to climb another 14% in 2026, pushing total consumption to roughly 425 terawatt-hours in just the first nine months. That surge isn’t just about more people moving to Texas or running their homes differently; it’s being driven by massive industrial and technology loads that simply weren’t part of the equation ten years ago.

The most dramatic contributor to that rising demand is large-scale infrastructure such as data centers, cloud computing campuses, crypto mining facilities, and electrified industrial sectors. In the latest ERCOT planning update, more than 233 gigawatts of total “large load” interconnection requests were being tracked, an almost 300% jump over just a year earlier, with more than 70% of those requests tied to data centers.

Imagine hundreds of new power plants requesting to connect to the grid, all demanding uninterrupted power 24/7. That’s the scale of the transition Texas is facing, and it’s one of the major reasons transmission planning is no longer back-of-house policy talk but a central grid imperative.

Yet transmission is complicated, costly, and inherently long-lead. It takes three to six years to build new transmission infrastructure, compared with six to twelve months to add a new load or generation project.

This is where Texas will feel the most tension. Current infrastructure can add customers and power plants quickly, but the lines to connect them reliably take time, money, permitting, and political will.

To address these impending needs, ERCOT wrapped up its 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) at the end of last year, and the message was pretty clear: we’ve got work to do. The plan calls for 274 transmission projects and about 6,000 miles of new, rebuilt, or upgraded lines just to handle the growth coming our way and keep the lights on.

The plan also suggests upgrading to 765-kilovolt transmission lines, a big step beyond the standard 345-kV system. When you start talking about 765-kilovolt transmission lines, that’s a big leap from what Texas normally uses. Those lines are built to move a massive amount of power over long distances, but they’re expensive and complicated, so they’re only considered when planners expect demand to grow far beyond normal levels. Recommending them is a clear signal that incremental upgrades won’t be enough to keep up with where electricity demand is headed.

There’s a reason transmission is suddenly getting so much attention. ERCOT and just about every industry analyst watching Texas are projecting that electricity demand could climb as high as 218 gigawatts by 2031 if even a portion of the massive queue of large-load projects actually comes online. When you focus only on what’s likely to get built, the takeaway is the same: demand is going to stay well above anything we’ve seen before, driven largely by the steady expansion of data centers, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure across the state.

Ultimately, the decisions Texas makes on transmission investment and the policies that determine how those costs are allocated will shape whether 2026 and the years ahead bring greater stability or continued volatility to the grid. Thoughtful planning can support growth while protecting reliability and affordability, but falling short risks making volatility a lasting feature of Texas’s energy landscape.

Transmission Policy: The Other Half of the Equation

Infrastructure investment delivers results only when paired with policies that allow it to operate efficiently and at scale. Recognizing that markets alone won’t solve these challenges, Texas lawmakers and regulators have started creating guardrails.

For example, Senate Bill 6, now part of state law, aims to improve how large energy consumers are managed on the grid, including new rules for data center operations during emergencies and requirements around interconnection. Data centers may even be required to disconnect under extreme conditions to protect overall system reliability, a novel and necessary rule given their scale.

Similarly, House Bill 5066 changed how load forecasting occurs by requiring ERCOT to include utility-reported projections in its planning processes, ensuring transmission planning incorporates real-world expectations. These policy updates matter because grid planning isn’t just a technical checklist. It’s about making sure investment incentives, permitting decisions, and cost-sharing rules are aligned so Texas can grow its economy without putting unnecessary pressure on consumers.

Without thoughtful policy, we risk repeating past grid management mistakes. For example, if transmission projects are delayed or underfunded while new high-demand loads come online, we could see congestion worsen. If that happens, affordable electricity would be located farther from where it’s needed, limiting access to low-cost power for consumers and slowing overall economic growth. That’s especially critical in regions like Houston, where energy costs are already a hot topic for households and businesses alike.

A 2026 View: Strategy Over Shortage

As we look toward 2026, here are the transmission and policy trends that matter most:

  • Pipeline of Projects Must Stay on Track: ERCOT’s RTP is ambitious, and keeping those 274 projects, thousands of circuit miles, and next-generation 765-kV lines moving is crucial for reliability and cost containment.
  • Large Load Forecasting Must Be Nuanced: The explosion in large-load interconnection requests, whether or not every project materializes, signals demand pressure that transmission planners cannot ignore. Building lines ahead of realized demand is not wasteful planning; it’s insurance against cost and reliability breakdowns.
  • Policy Frameworks Must Evolve: Laws like SB 6 and HB 5066 are just the beginning. Texas needs transparent rules for cost allocation, interconnection standards, and emergency protocols that keep consumers protected while supporting innovation and economic growth.
  • Coordination Among Stakeholders Is Critical: Transmission doesn’t stop at one utility’s borders. Regional cooperation among utilities, ERCOT, and local stakeholders is essential to manage congestion and develop systemwide reliability solutions.

Here’s the bottom line: Generation gets the headlines, but transmission makes the grid work. Without a robust transmission buildout and thoughtful governance, even the most advanced generation mix that includes wind, solar, gas, and storage will struggle to deliver the reliability Texans expect at a price they can afford.

In 2026, Texas is not merely testing its grid’s capacity to produce power; it’s testing its ability to move that power where it’s needed most. How we rise to meet that challenge will define the next decade of energy in the Lone Star State.

———

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

New Gulf Coast recycling plant partners with first-of-kind circularity hub

now open

TALKE USA Inc., the Houston-area arm of German logistics company TALKE, officially opened its Recycling Support Center earlier this month.

Located next to the company's Houston-area headquarters, the plant will process post-consumer plastic materials, which will eventually be converted into recycling feedstock. Chambers County partially funded the plant.

“Our new recycling support center expands our overall commitment to sustainable growth, and now, the community’s plastics will be received here before they head out for recycling. This is a win for the residents of Chambers County," Richard Heath, CEO and president of TALKE USA, said in a news release.

“The opening of our recycling support facility offers a real alternative to past obstacles regarding the large amount of plastic products our local community disposes of. For our entire team, our customers, and the Mont Belvieu community, today marks a new beginning for effective, safe, and sustainable plastics recycling.”

The new plant will receive the post-consumer plastic and form it into bales. The materials will then be processed at Cyclyx's new Houston Circularity Center, a first-of-its-kind plastic waste sorting and processing facility being developed through a joint venture between Cyclix, ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell.

“Materials collected at this facility aren’t just easy-to-recycle items like water bottles and milk jugs. All plastics are accepted, including multi-layered films—like chip bags and juice pouches. This means more of the everyday plastics used in the Chambers County community can be captured and kept out of landfills,” Leslie Hushka, chief impact officer at Cyclyx, added in a LinkedIn post.

Cyclyx's circularity center is currently under construction and is expected to produce 300 million pounds of custom-formulated feedstock annually.

Houston quantum simulator research reveals clues for solar energy conversion

energy flow

Rice University scientists have used a programmable quantum simulator to mimic how energy moves through a vibrating molecule.

The research, which was published in Nature Communications last month, lets the researchers watch and control the flow of energy in real time and sheds light on processes like photosynthesis and solar energy conversion, according to a news release from the university.

The team, led by Rice assistant professor of physics and astronomy Guido Pagano, modeled a two-site molecule with one part supplying energy (the donor) and the other receiving it (the acceptor).

Unlike in previous experiments, the Rice researchers were able to smoothly tune the system to model multiple types of vibrations and manipulate the energy states in a controlled setting. This allowed the team to explore different types of energy transfer within the same platform.

“By adjusting the interactions between the donor and acceptor, coupling to two types of vibrations and the character of those vibrations, we could see how each factor influenced the flow of energy,” Pagano said in the release.

The research showed that more vibrations sped up energy transfer and opened new paths for energy to move, sometimes making transfer more efficient even with energy loss. Additionally, when vibrations differed, efficient transfer happened over a wider range of donor–acceptor energy differences.

“The results show that vibrations and their environment are not simply background noise but can actively steer energy flow in unexpected ways,” Pagano added.

The team believes the findings could help with the design of organic solar cells, molecular wires and other devices that depend on efficient energy or charge transfer. They could also have an environmental impact by improving energy harvesting to reduce energy losses in electronics.

“These are the kinds of phenomena that physical chemists have theorized exist but could not easily isolate experimentally, especially in a programmable manner, until now,” Visal So, a Rice doctoral student and first author of the study, added in the release.

The study was supported by The Welch Foundation,the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation CAREER Award, the Army Research Office and the Department of Energy.

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