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$21.5 billion merger will create Houston-based energy powerhouse

Major Merger

Devon Energy will buy Houston-based Coterra Energy. Photo via Coterra Energy

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma-based Devon Energy has agreed to buy Houston-based Coterra Energy in a $21.5 billion all-stock deal, forming an energy powerhouse that will be headquartered in Houston. The combined company, boasting an enterprise value of $58 billion, will adopt the Devon brand name.

Revenue for the two publicly traded companies totaled nearly $18.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025. Devon is a Fortune 500 company, but Coterra doesn’t appear in the most recent ranking.

The deal, already approved by the boards of both companies, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026. Once the transaction is completed, Devon shareholders will own about 54 percent of the combined company and Coterra shareholders will own 46 percent.

“This transformative merger combines two companies with proud histories and cultures of operational excellence, creating a premier shale operator,” says Clay Gaspar, Devon’s president and CEO.

The combined company will be one of the world’s largest shale producers, with third-quarter 2025 production exceeding 550 thousand barrels of oil per day and 4.3 billion cubic feet of gas per day. A significant presence in the Delaware Basin, encompassing hundreds of thousands of acres, will anchor the company’s operations. The 10,000-square-mile Delaware Basin is in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

The new Devon also will operate in the Permian Basin, located in West Texas and New Mexico; Marcellus Shale, located in five states in the East; and Anadarko Basin, located in the Texas Panhandle, Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.

Gaspar will be president and CEO of the combined company, and Tom Jorden, chairman, president, and CEO of Coterra, will be non-executive chairman.

Trump and Republicans in Congress say the rate reset will boost energy production, jobs and affordability. Photo via Getty Images

States brace for Trump's push to make oil drilling cheap again

Energy news

A Republican push to make drilling cheaper on federal land is creating new fiscal pressure for states that depend on oil and gas revenue, most notably in New Mexico as it expands early childhood education and saves for the future.

The shift stems from the sweeping law President Donald Trump signed in July that rolls back the minimum federal royalty rate to 12.5%. That rate — the share of production value companies must pay to the government — held steady for a century under the 1920 Mineral Leasing Act. It was raised to 16.7% under the Biden administration in 2022.

Trump and Republicans in Congress say the rate reset will boost energy production, jobs and affordability as the administration clears the way for expanded drilling and mining on public lands.

States receive nearly half the money collected through federal royalties, depending on where production takes place. The environment and economics research group Resources for the Future estimates a roughly $6 billion drop in collections over the coming decade.

The stakes are highest in New Mexico, the largest recipient of federal mineral lease payments. The state could could forgo $1.7 billion by 2035 and as much as $5.1 billion by 2050, according to calculations by economist Brian Prest at Resources for the Future.

More than one-third of the general fund budget in the Democratically-led state is tied to the oil and gas industry.

“New Mexico’s impact is way bigger than Wyoming or Colorado or North Dakota,” Prest said, “and that’s just because that’s where the action is on new development.”

The effects will unfold gradually, since federal leases allow a 10-year window to begin drilling and production. Still, state officials say they're already prepping for leaner years.

“It all hurts when you’re losing revenues," said Democratic state Sen. George Muñoz of Gallup, who said lawmakers still hope to invest more in mental health care and support Medicaid, even if federal royalty payments decline. “We’ve learned that until the chicken’s got feathers, we’re not even looking at it."

The higher federal royalty rate was in place for roughly three years while leasing activity was muted, Prest said. New Mexico budget forecasters never tallied the additional income.

New Mexico's nest-egg strategy

A nearly five-fold surge in local oil production since 2017 on federal and state land in New Mexico delivered a financial windfall for state government, helping fund higher teacher salaries, tuition-free college, universal free school meals and more.

The state set aside billions of dollars in investment trusts for future spending in case the world’s thirst for oil falters, including a early childhood education fund to help expand preschool, child care subsidies and home wellness visits for pregnancies and infants.

The state's investment nest egg has grown to $64 billion, second only to Alaska's Permanent Fund. Earnings from the trusts are New Mexico's second-biggest source for general fund spending.

That sturdy financial footing shaped a defiant response to this year’s federal government shutdown, when lawmakers voted to subsidize the state’s Affordable Care Act exchange, cover food assistance and backfill cuts to public broadcasting.

But lawmakers reviewing state finances learned that predictable income fell 1.6% — the first contraction since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Muñoz said matters would be worse if the state had not raised its own royalty rates this year to 25%, from 20%, for new leases on prime oil and gas tracts, while ending a sales moratorium, under legislation he co-sponsored this year.

Encouraged in Alaska

After New Mexico, the states receiving the most federal oil and gas royalties are Wyoming, Louisiana, North Dakota and Texas.

Texas, the nation’s top oil producer, shares the bountiful Permian Basin with New Mexico but has far less federal land and therefore less exposure to changes in royalty policy.

In Alaska, state officials say they are encouraged by the royalty cut, seeing potential for increased development in places like the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, where the massive Willow project — approved in 2023 and now under development — is viewed by some as a catalyst for further activity. The reserve is expected to hold its first lease sales since 2019.

“If reduced federal royalty rates stimulate new leasing, exploration and production, that also could increase other kinds of revenue,” said Lorraine Henry, a spokesperson for Alaska’s Department of Natural Resources.

In North Dakota, federal royalties are split evenly between the state and county governments where drilling occurs. State Office of Management and Budget Director Joe Morrissette said the industry’s future remains difficult to forecast.

“There are so many variables, including timing, price, availability of desirable tracts, and federal policies regarding exploration activities,” Morrissette said.

Houston energy leader Barbara Burger shared her key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025 with InnovationMap. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

Houston energy expert shares key takeaways from CERAWeek 2025

guest column

What a difference a year makes.

I have been coming to CERAWeek for as long as I can remember and the Agora track within CERAWeek since it originated. Although freshness likely distorts my thinking, I cannot remember a CERAWeek that seemed so different from the previous year's than this one.

This certainly isn’t a comprehensive summary of the conference, but some of my key take forwards from last week's events.

It’s all about power.

It seemed like everyone associated with the power value chain showed up. Developers, turbine manufacturers, utilities, oil and gas, renewables, geothermal, nuclear, storage, hyperscalers, and lots of innovative companies that aim to squeeze more out of the grid we already have. Most of the companies embraced the “all of the above” sentiment and despite moderators (and some key notes) attempt to force technology picks, most didn’t take the bait.

Practical is in.

Real issues – choke points in supply chains and the workforce, permit timing, cost increases in new generation – were openly discussed both on the stage and in the countless meetings and meet ups in partner rooms and in open spaces throughout the Hilton Americas and the GR Brown.

AI was everywhere.

While there was an understanding that not all the power load growth is coming from AI and Data Centers, that segment was getting all the attention. AI went beyond the retail and human enablement to AI for Optimization and AI for Innovation. The symbiosis of Tech and Energy was evident – power is a constraint, and AI is a game changer. S&P (CERAWeek’s organizer) did a great job of weaving this theme across the conference in both the Executive and Agora sessions.

More gas… and less hydrogen.

Whether it was LNG or gas to power or methane emission management, the US’s dominance in gas was front and center. Hydrogen was largely absent from the Executive talks and where it was topical in the Agora sessions, the need for better economics was made clear.

Consistency and balance are needed for this sector.

I am unsure whether it is a “stay calm and carry on” approach, as one leader fashioned, or rather a “carry on” message and imperative. Phrases like “one extreme to another” were heard on stage and in the hallways. The oil and gas CEOs talked more openly about their base business than they had in the last four years but they also talked about their decarbonization activities as well as commercialization of new technologies and value chains.

The macro-economic picture cast long shadows.

While few talks onstage addressed tariffs, consumer sentiment, inflation and unemployment (including those from government officials), the talks in the halls and private meetings certainly did. And while some argued that “the end justifies the means,” it wasn’t an argument that most seemed to buy into.

There is a lot of tripping up on labels.

Politics makes our sector more polarizing than it should or needs to be. Climatetech, Sustainability, Cleantech – some were labels with broad objectives, and some were meant to be binary or exclusionary. "Energy Transition" for some meant a binary replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, and for others, it meant an evolution of a system in multiple dimensions. In any event, a lot of energy is being spent on the labels and the narratives. I don’t have an easy answer for this other than to fall back to longer discussions and less use of labels that have lots of meanings and can quickly move a constructive discussion onto the third rail.

Collaboration is key and vital in this uncertain world.

The attendance of approximately 10,000 spanned the breadth of energy, those who make, move, and use it from around the globe—in other words, everyone—with a strong tone of inclusion. CERAWeek, after all, is all about convening and collaboration, and this played out in the programming and the networking. The messages about practicality, consistency, balance and “all of the above” and the storm clouds of the extremes seemed to put everyone in a similar boat: Am I being too hopeful that this will lead to more and more collaboration within the sector to advance the multiple aims of affordability, reliability, security, resiliency and sustainability?

The next-generation workforce is a strategic imperative.

The NextGen cohort in Agora was launched with 100+ graduate students from all over coming to see the energy sector close up. Kudos to S&P for making this investment and to all the conference attendees who spent time talking to the students about their research, their interests, and, importantly, sharing their career stories. Relationships were born at CERAWeek.

Houston showed well for the conference and Mother Nature played nice. The days were sunny and dry, and the evening temperatures fit the outdoor events well. The schedule and pace of CERAWeek is exhausting, and most people were worn out by Thursday.

CERAWeek 2025 is in the books; the connections made, and messages heard set the tone for the year ahead.

Until CERAWeek 2026.

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Barbara J. Burger is a startup adviser and mentor. She is the independent Director of Bloom Energy and is an advisor to numerous organizations, including Lazard Inc., Syzygy Plasmonics, Energy Impact Partners and others. She previously led corporate innovation for two decades at Chevron and served on the board of directors for Greentown Labs.

Houston American Energy Corp. plans to acquire Abundia Global Impact Group, which will build its first advanced plastic recycling facility in the Cedar Port Industrial Park in Baytown. Photo via Getty Images

Houston oil and gas producer expands into renewables, announces new Baytown facility

Renewables News

Houston American Energy Corp. (NYSE: HUSA), an oil and gas exploration and production company, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire New York-based Abundia Global Impact Group LLC, which specializes in converting waste into high-value fuels and chemicals.

HUSA is expected to close on the AGIG acquisition early in the second quarter and says the deal aims to provide value through “innovation in the renewable energy sector,” according to a news release.

As part of the deal, HUSA will acquire 100% of AGIG’s issued and outstanding units. HUSA will also issue to AGIG’s members a number of shares of HUSA common stock that will equal 94 percent of HUSA’s aggregate issued and outstanding common stock at the time of the closing. The company also closed a $4.42 million registered direct offering in January.

“AGIG has developed a commercially ready project for converting waste into valuable fuels and chemicals, and this transaction gives HUSA shareholders a ready-made platform and project pipeline for future value generation,” Peter Longo, CEO of Houston American Energy Corp, said in a news release. “We are witnessing the growing momentum of the fuel and chemical industry’s transformation into alternative solutions like recycled chemical alternatives and the highly publicized sustainable aviation fuel market.”

AGIG will build its first advanced plastic recycling facility in the Cedar Port Industrial Park in the Baytown area of Houston. The facility will represent the first phase of a growth plan aimed at scaling AGIG’s technologies for producing renewable fuels and chemicals from waste, according to the company. The Cedar Port facility will serve as a hub for a five-year development plan and will be designed to scale production capacity.

"We are excited to use this platform to support the deployment and development of our suite of technologies that will assist in the evolution of fuel, chemical and waste markets, providing commercial alternatives and sustainable products,” AGIG CEO Ed Gillespie said in a news release.

Texas energy experts look ahead to what's in store for oil and gas in 2025. Photo via Getty Images

Experts reveal top 6 predictions for oil and gas industry in 2025

guest column

If you tune in to the popular national narrative, 2025 will be the year the oil and gas industry receives a big, shiny gift in the form of the U.S. presidential election.

President Donald Trump’s vocal support for the industry throughout his campaign has casual observers betting on a blissful new era for oil and gas. Already there are plans to lift the pause on LNG export permits and remove tons of regulatory red tape; the nomination of Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, to lead the Department of Energy; and the new administration’s reported wide-ranging energy plan to boost gas exports and drilling — the list goes on.

While the outlook is positive in many of these areas, the perception of a “drill, baby, drill” bonanza masks a much more complicated reality. Oil and gas operators are facing a growing number of challenges, including intense pressure to reduce costs and boost productivity, and uncertainty caused by geopolitical factors such as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.

From our vantage point working with many of the country’s biggest operators and suppliers, we’re seeing activity that will have major implications for the industry — including the many companies based in and operating around Texas — in the coming year. Let’s dig in.

1. The industry’s cost crunch will continue — and intensify.
In 2024, oil and gas company leaders reported that rising costs and pressure to cut costs were two of the top three challenges they faced, according to a national Workrise-Newton X study that surveyed decision makers from operators and suppliers of all sizes. Respondents reported being asked to find an astonishing 40% to 60% reduction in supply chain-related costs across categories, on average.

Given the seemingly endless stream of geopolitical uncertainty (an expanded war in the Middle East, continued conflict after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and China’s flailing economy, for starters), energy companies are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to achieving cost savings from suppliers.

With lower average oil prices expected in 2025, expect the cost crunch to continue. That’s because today’s operators have only two levers they can rely on to drive an increase in shareholder returns: reducing costs and increasing well productivity. Historically, the industry could rely on a third lever: an increase in oil demand, which, combined with limited ability to meet that demand with supply, led to steadily increasing oil prices over time. But that is no longer the case.

2. The consolidation trend in oil and gas will continue, but its shape will change.
In the wake of the great oil and gas M&A wave of 2024, the number of deals will decrease — but the number of dollars spent will not. Fewer, larger transactions will be the face of consolidation in the coming year. Expect newly merged entities to spin off non-core assets, which will create opportunities for private equity to return to the space.

This will be the year the oil and gas industry becomes investable again, with potential for multiple expansions across the entire value chain — both the E&P and the service side. From what we’re hearing in the industry, expect 2 times more startups in 2025 than there were this year.

With roughly the same amount of deals next year, but less volume and fewer total transactions, there will be more scale — more pressure from the top to push down service costs. This will lead to better service providers. But there will also be losers, and those are the service providers that cannot scale with their large clients.

3. Refilling SPR will become a national priority.
The outgoing administration pulled about 300 million barrels out of the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the coming year, replenishing those stores will be crucial.

There will be a steady buyer — the U.S. government — and it will reload the SPR to 600-plus million barrels. The government will be opportunistic, targeting the lowest price while taking care not to create too much imbalance in the supply-demand curve. A priority of the new administration will be to ensure they don’t create demand shocks, driving up prices for consumers while absorbing temporary oversupply that may occur due to seasonality (i.e. reduced demand in spring and fall).

The nation’s SPR was created following the 1973 oil embargo so that the U.S. has a cushion when there’s a supply disruption. With the current conflict in the Middle East continuing to intensify, the lessons learned in 1973 will be top of mind.

If OPEC + moves from defending prices to defending market share, we can expect their temporary production cuts to come back on market over time, causing oversupply and a resulting dramatic drop in oil prices. The U.S. government could absorb the balance, defending U.S. exploration and production companies while defending our country's interest in energy security. Refilling the SPR could create a hedge, protecting the American worker from this oversupply scenario.

4. The environment and emissions will remain a priority, and the economic viability of carbon capture will take center stage.
Despite speculation to the contrary, there will be a continuation of conservation efforts and emissions reduction among the biggest operators. The industry is not going to say, “Things have changed in Washington, so we no longer care about the environment.”

But there will be a shift in focus from energy alternatives that have a high degree of difficulty and cost keeping pace with increasing energy demand (think solar and wind) to technologies that are adjacent to the oil and gas industry’s core competencies. This means the industry will go all in on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, driven by both environmental concerns and operational benefits. This is already in motion with major players (EQT, Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and more) investing heavily in CCS capabilities.

As the world races to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, there will be a push for carbon capture to be economical and scalable — in part because of the need for CO2 for operations in the business. In the not-so-distant future, we believe some operators will be able to capture as much carbon as they're extracting from the earth.

5. The sharp rise in electricity demand to power AI data centers will rely heavily on natural gas.
Growth in technologies like generative AI and edge computing is expected to propel U.S. electricity demand to hit record highs in 2025 after staying flat for about two decades. This is a big national priority — President Trump has said we’ll need to more than double our electricity supply to lead the globe in artificial intelligence capabilities — and the urgent need for power will bring more investment in new natural gas infrastructure.

Natural gas is seen as a crucial “bridge fuel” in the energy transition. The U.S. became the world's top exporter of LNG in 2023 — and in the year ahead, brace for a huge push for pipeline infrastructure development in the range of 10-15 Bcf of new pipeline capacity in the next two to three years. (Translation: development on a massive scale, akin to railway construction during the Industrial Revolution.)

Big operators have already been working on deals to use natural gas and carbon capture to power the tech industry; given the significant increase in the electricity transmission capabilities needed to support fast-growing technologies, there will continue to be big opportunities behind the meter.

6. Regulatory processes will become more efficient, not less stringent.
This year will bring a focus on streamlining and aligning regulations, rather than on wholesale rollbacks. It’s not carte blanche for the industry to do whatever it wants, but rather a very aggressive challenge to the things that are holding operators back.

Historically, authorities have stacked regulation upon regulation and, as new problems arise, added even more regulations on top.There will be a very deliberate effort this year to challenge the regulations currently in place, to make sure they are aligned and not just stacked.

The new administration is signaling that it will be deliberate about regulation matching intent. They’ll examine whether or not particular policies are valuable to retain, or reconfigure, or realign with the industry to enable growth and also still protect the environment.

Easing the regulatory environment will enable growth in savings, lower project costs and speed to bring projects online. Another benefit of regulatory certainty: it will make large capital project financing more readily available. We’ve seen major gridlock in large project financing due to a lack of trust in the regulatory environment and potential for rules to change mid-project (see: Keystone XL). If they are certain the new administration will be supportive of projects that are viable and meet regulatory requirements, companies will once again be able to obtain the financing needed to accelerate development and commissioning of those projects.

But we shouldn’t mistake a new era of regulatory certainty for a regulatory free-for-all. Take LNG permits. They should be accelerated — but don’t expect a reduction in the actual level of environmental protection as a result. It currently takes 18 months to get a single permit to drill a well on federal land. It should take three weeks. Before 2020, it took about a month to obtain a federal permit.

2025 will be the year we begin to return to regulatory efficiency without sacrificing the protections the rules and policies set out to accomplish in the first place.

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Adam Hirschfeld and Jacob Gritte are executives at Austin-based Workrise, the leading labor provider and source-to-pay solution for energy companies throughout Texas and beyond.

Some of those counties affected include production hot spots within the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, which straddles the New Mexico-Texas line. Photo via Getty Images

New Mexico court upholds emissions crackdown impacting oil, gas operations along Texas border

eyes on the west

The New Mexico Court of Appeals has upheld regulations aimed at cracking down on emissions in one of the nation’s top-producing oil and gas states.

The case centered on a rule adopted in 2022 by state regulators that called for curbing the pollutants that chemically react in the presence of sunlight to create ground-level ozone, commonly known as smog. High ozone levels can cause respiratory problems, including asthma and chronic bronchitis.

Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham's administration has long argued that the adoption of the ozone precursor rule along with regulations to limit methane emissions from the industry were necessary to combat climate change and meet federal clean air standards.

New Mexico Environment Secretary James Kenney said the court's decision on Wednesday affirmed that the rule was properly developed and there was substantial evidence to back up its approval by regulators.

“These rules aren’t going anywhere,” Kenney said in a statement to The New Mexican, suggesting that the industry stop spending resources on legal challenges and start working to comply with New Mexico's requirements.

The Independent Petroleum Association of New Mexico had argued in its appeal that the rule disproportionately affected independent operators.

“The administration needs to stop its ‘death by a thousand cuts’ hostility to the smaller, family-owned, New Mexico-based operators,” the group's executive director, Jim Winchester, said in an email to the newspaper.

The group is considering its legal options.

Under the rule, oil and gas operators must monitor emissions for smog-causing pollutants — nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds — and regularly check for and fix leaks.

The rule applies to eight counties — Chaves, Doña Ana, Eddy, Lea, Rio Arriba, Sandoval, San Juan and Valencia — where ozone pollutants have reached at least 95% of the federal ambient air quality standard. Some of those counties include production hot spots within the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico and the Permian Basin, which straddles the New Mexico-Texas line.

The industry group had argued that Chaves and Rio Arriba counties shouldn’t be included. The court disagreed, saying those counties are located within broader geographic regions that did hit that 95% threshold.

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Spring-based private equity firm acquires West Texas wind farm

power deal

Spring-based private equity firm Arroyo Investors has teamed up with ONCEnergy, a Portland, Oregon-based developer of clean energy projects, to buy a 60-megawatt wind farm southeast of Amarillo.

Skyline Renewables, which acquired the site, known as the Whirlwind Energy Center, in 2018, was the seller. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed.

Whirlwind Energy Center, located in Floyd County, West Texas, comprises 26 utility-scale wind turbines. The wind farm, built in 2007, supplies power to Austin Energy.

“The acquisition reflects our focus on value-driven investments with strong counterparties, a solid operating track record, and clear relevance to markets with growing capacity needs,” Brandon Wax, a partner at Arroyo, said in a press release. “Partnering with ONCEnergy allows us to leverage deep operational expertise while expanding our investment footprint in the market.”

Arroyo focuses on energy infrastructure investments in the Americas. Its portfolio includes Spring-based Seaside LNG, which produces liquefied natural gas and LNG transportation services.

Last year, Arroyo closed an investment fund with more than $1 billion in total equity commitments.

Since its launch in 2003, Arroyo has “remained committed to investing in high-quality assets, creating value and positioning assets for exit within our expected hold period,” founding partner Chuck Jordan said in 2022.

$524M Texas Hill Country solar project powered by Hyundai kicks off

powering up

Corporate partners—including Hyundai Engineering & Construction, which maintains a Houston office—kicked off a $524 million solar power project in the Texas Hill Country on Jan. 27.

The 350-megawatt, utility-scale Lucy Solar Project is scheduled to go online in mid-2027 and represents one of the largest South Korean-led investments in U.S. renewable energy.

The solar farm, located on nearly 2,900 acres of ranchland in Concho County, will generate 926 gigawatt-hours of solar power each year. That’s enough solar power to supply electricity to roughly 65,000 homes in Texas.

Power to be produced by the hundreds of thousands of the project’s solar panels has already been sold through long-term deals to buyers such as Starbucks, Workday and Plano-based Toyota Motor North America.

The project is Hyundai Engineering & Construction’s largest solar power initiative outside Asia.

“The project is significant because it’s the first time Hyundai E&C has moved beyond its traditional focus on overseas government contracts to solidify its position in the global project financing market,” the company, which is supplying solar modules for the project, says on its website.

Aside from Hyundai Engineering & Construction, a subsidiary of automaker Hyundai, Korean and U.S. partners in the solar project include Korea Midland Power, the Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corp., solar panel manufacturer Topsun, investment firm EIP Asset Management, Primoris Renewable Energy and High Road Energy Marketing.

Primoris Renewable Energy is an Aurora, Colorado-based subsidiary of Dallas-based Primoris Services Corp. Another subsidiary, Primoris Energy Services, is based in Houston.

High Road is based in the Austin suburb of West Lake Hills.

“The Lucy Solar Project shows how international collaboration can deliver local economic development and clean power for Texas communities and businesses,” says a press release from the project’s partners.

Elon Musk vows to put data centers in space and run them on solar power

Outer Space

Elon Musk vowed this week to upend another industry just as he did with cars and rockets — and once again he's taking on long odds.

The world's richest man said he wants to put as many as a million satellites into orbit to form vast, solar-powered data centers in space — a move to allow expanded use of artificial intelligence and chatbots without triggering blackouts and sending utility bills soaring.

To finance that effort, Musk combined SpaceX with his AI business on Monday, February 2, and plans a big initial public offering of the combined company.

“Space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale,” Musk wrote on SpaceX’s website, adding about his solar ambitions, “It’s always sunny in space!”

But scientists and industry experts say even Musk — who outsmarted Detroit to turn Tesla into the world’s most valuable automaker — faces formidable technical, financial and environmental obstacles.

Feeling the heat

Capturing the sun’s energy from space to run chatbots and other AI tools would ease pressure on power grids and cut demand for sprawling computing warehouses that are consuming farms and forests and vast amounts of water to cool.

But space presents its own set of problems.

Data centers generate enormous heat. Space seems to offer a solution because it is cold. But it is also a vacuum, trapping heat inside objects in the same way that a Thermos keeps coffee hot using double walls with no air between them.

“An uncooled computer chip in space would overheat and melt much faster than one on Earth,” said Josep Jornet, a computer and electrical engineering professor at Northeastern University.

One fix is to build giant radiator panels that glow in infrared light to push the heat “out into the dark void,” says Jornet, noting that the technology has worked on a small scale, including on the International Space Station. But for Musk's data centers, he says, it would require an array of “massive, fragile structures that have never been built before.”

Floating debris

Then there is space junk.

A single malfunctioning satellite breaking down or losing orbit could trigger a cascade of collisions, potentially disrupting emergency communications, weather forecasting and other services.

Musk noted in a recent regulatory filing that he has had only one “low-velocity debris generating event" in seven years running Starlink, his satellite communications network. Starlink has operated about 10,000 satellites — but that's a fraction of the million or so he now plans to put in space.

“We could reach a tipping point where the chance of collision is going to be too great," said University at Buffalo's John Crassidis, a former NASA engineer. “And these objects are going fast -- 17,500 miles per hour. There could be very violent collisions."

No repair crews

Even without collisions, satellites fail, chips degrade, parts break.

Special GPU graphics chips used by AI companies, for instance, can become damaged and need to be replaced.

“On Earth, what you would do is send someone down to the data center," said Baiju Bhatt, CEO of Aetherflux, a space-based solar energy company. "You replace the server, you replace the GPU, you’d do some surgery on that thing and you’d slide it back in.”

But no such repair crew exists in orbit, and those GPUs in space could get damaged due to their exposure to high-energy particles from the sun.

Bhatt says one workaround is to overprovision the satellite with extra chips to replace the ones that fail. But that’s an expensive proposition given they are likely to cost tens of thousands of dollars each, and current Starlink satellites only have a lifespan of about five years.

Competition — and leverage

Musk is not alone trying to solve these problems.

A company in Redmond, Washington, called Starcloud, launched a satellite in November carrying a single Nvidia-made AI computer chip to test out how it would fare in space. Google is exploring orbital data centers in a venture it calls Project Suncatcher. And Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin announced plans in January for a constellation of more than 5,000 satellites to start launching late next year, though its focus has been more on communications than AI.

Still, Musk has an edge: He's got rockets.

Starcloud had to use one of his Falcon rockets to put its chip in space last year. Aetherflux plans to send a set of chips it calls a Galactic Brain to space on a SpaceX rocket later this year. And Google may also need to turn to Musk to get its first two planned prototype satellites off the ground by early next year.

Pierre Lionnet, a research director at the trade association Eurospace, says Musk routinely charges rivals far more than he charges himself —- as much as $20,000 per kilo of payload versus $2,000 internally.

He said Musk’s announcements this week signal that he plans to use that advantage to win this new space race.

“When he says we are going to put these data centers in space, it’s a way of telling the others we will keep these low launch costs for myself,” said Lionnet. “It’s a kind of powerplay.”

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