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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

From Your Site Articles
Texas has the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Photo by Sam LaRussa on Unsplash

Expert: Debunking the myth that Texas doesn't care about renewable energy

Guest Column

When most people think about Texas, wind turbines and solar panels may not be the first images that come to mind. But in reality, the state now leads the nation in both wind-powered electricity generation and utility-scale solar capacity. In 2024 alone, Texas added approximately 9,700 megawatts of solar and 4,374 megawatts of battery storage, outpacing all other energy sources in new generation capacity that year. So what’s driving Texas’ rapid rise as the renewable energy capital of the United States?

Leader in wind energy

Texas has been a national leader in wind energy for more than a decade, thanks to its vast open landscapes and consistent wind conditions, particularly in regions like West Texas and the Panhandle. These ideal geographic features have enabled the development of massive wind farms, giving Texas the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Wind energy also plays a strategic role in balancing the grid and complements solar energy well, as it often peaks at night when solar output drops.

Battery storage growth

Increasing battery storage capacity is unlocking more potential from solar and wind. When intermittent energy sources like wind and solar go offline, batteries release stored electricity and provide stability to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system. Excluding California, Texas has more battery storage than the rest of the United States combined, accounting for over 32% of all the capacity installed nationwide.

Solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. Between June 1 and August 31, solar contributed nearly 25% of total power demand during mid-day hours. In the evening, as demand stayed high but solar output declined, battery discharges successfully filled the gap. Battery storage solutions are now a core element of ERCOT’s future capacity and demand planning.

Interest in creating a hydrogen economy

Texas is well positioned to become a national hub in the hydrogen economy. The state has everything needed to lead in this emerging space with low-cost natural gas, abundant and growing low carbon electricity, geology well suited for hydrogen and carbon storage, mature hydrogen demand centers, existing hydrogen pipelines, established port infrastructure and more. The state already has an existing hydrogen market with two-thirds of the country’s hydrogen transport infrastructure.

In 2023, the Texas Legislature created the Texas Hydrogen Production Policy Council, which found that:

  • Hydrogen could represent a grid-scale energy storage solution that can help support the increased development of renewable electricity from wind and solar. Renewable electricity that is converted to hydrogen can improve overall grid reliability, resilience and dispatchability.
  • The development of the hydrogen industry, along with its supporting infrastructure and its downstream markets within Texas, could attract billions of dollars of investment. This development may create hundreds of thousands of jobs - especially with younger generations who are passionate about climate science - and greatly boost the Texas economy.
  • Hydrogen supports the current energy economy in Texas as a critical component to both conventional refining and the growing production of new biofuels (such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel) within the state.

Legislative action and pressure to reduce carbon emissions

Texas has also seen key legislative actions and policies that have supported the growth of renewable energy in Texas. During the most recent legislative session, lawmakers decided that The Texas Energy Fund, a low-interest loan program aimed at encouraging companies to build more power infrastructure, will receive an additional $5 billion on top of the $5 billion lawmakers approved in 2023. Of that amount, $1.8 billion is earmarked to strengthen existing backup generators, which must be powered by a combination of solar, battery storage and natural gas. These funds signal growing institutional support for a diversified and more resilient energy grid.

Furthermore, there is growing pressure from investors, regulators and consumers to reduce carbon emissions, and as a result, private equity firms in the oil and gas sector are diversifying their portfolios to include wind, solar, battery storage and carbon capture projects. In 2022, private equity investment in renewable energy and clean technology surged to a record-high $26 billion.

The future of the renewable energy workforce

With renewable energy jobs projected to grow to 38 million globally by 2030, the sector is poised to be one of the most promising career landscapes of the future. Given that young people today are increasingly environmentally conscious, there is a powerful opportunity to engage students early and help them see how their values align with meaningful, purpose-driven careers in clean energy. Organizations like the Energy Education Foundation play a vital role in this effort by providing accessible, high-quality resources that bridge the gap between energy literacy and real-world impact. The nonprofit employs comprehensive, science-based educational initiatives to help students and educators explore complex energy topics through clear explanations and engaging learning tools, laying a strong foundation for informed, future-ready learners.

STEM and AI education, which are reshaping how young people think, build, and solve problems, provide a natural gateway into the renewable energy field. From robotics and coding to climate modeling and sustainable engineering, these learning experiences equip students with the critical skills and mindsets needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving energy economy. By investing in engaging, future-focused learning environments now and through leveraging trusted educational partners, like the Energy Education Foundation, we can help ensure that the next generation of learners are not just prepared to enter the clean energy workforce but are empowered to lead it.

With its rapidly growing wind, solar, battery and hydrogen sectors, Texas is redefining its energy identity. To sustain this momentum, the state must continue aligning education, policy, and innovation—not only to meet the energy demands of tomorrow, but to inspire and equip the next generation to lead the way toward a more sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future.

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Kristen Barley is the executive director of the Energy Education Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to inspiring the next generation of energy leaders by providing comprehensive, engaging education that spans the entire energy spectrum.


Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. File photo

New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024

by the numbers

The winds of change in power generation are sweeping through Texas.

Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. The report shows:

  • Texas contributed more (12 terawatt-hours) to the country’s 64 terawatt-hour rise in solar generation last year than any other state.
  • Texas installed more solar (7.4 gigawatts) and battery (3.9 gigawatt) capacity than any other state.
  • Texas installed more utility-scale battery capacity (3.9 gigawatts) than any other state.
  • Texas saw the second biggest increase (eight terawatt-hours) in natural gas generation in 2024. Only Virginia, at 10 terawatt-hours, ranked higher.
  • Texas ranked second among the states for the biggest drop in production of coal-fueled power (6.07 terawatt-hours), preceded only by Wyoming (6.3 terawatt-hours).

Overall, coal represented 14 percent of power generation in Texas last year, with the combination of wind and solar at 30 percent, according to the report. Across the U.S., says the report, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal for the first time. Coal generation made up just 15% of U.S. electricity generation in 2024.

“The shift away from coal has been primarily driven by market dynamics and availability of more cost-effective resources,” the report says. “The unit costs of wind and solar have reduced significantly and their quick installation makes them commercially attractive.”

Citing data like the figures published by Ember, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott champions Texas as the “Energy Capital of the World,” a title that Houston also claims.

“As Texas continues to experience unprecedented growth, we will remain a leader in energy while also bolstering the Texas grid to meet the growing demands of our great state,” Abbott said in 2024.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

Untapped potential: The role of residential energy management in Texas

Guest Column

Texas stands out among other states when it comes to energy production.

Even after mass rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the Lone Star State produced more electricity than any other state in 2022. However, it also exemplifies how challenging it can be to ensure grid reliability. The following summer, the state’s grid manager, the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), experienced ten occasions of record-breaking demand.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand, as the outages caused by Hurricane Beryl demonstrated.

A bigger storm is brewing

Electric demand is poised to increase exponentially over the next few years. Grid planners nationwide are doubling their five-year load forecast. Texas predicts it will need to provide nearly double the amount of power within six years. These projections anticipate increasing demand from buildings, transportation, manufacturing, data centers, AI and electrification, underscoring the daunting challenges utilities face in maintaining grid reliability and managing rising demand.

However, Texas can accelerate its journey to becoming a grid reliability success story by taking two impactful steps. First, it could do more to encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) like residential solar and battery storage to better balance the prodigious amounts of remote grid-scale renewables that have been deployed over the past decade. More DERs mean more local energy resources that can support the grid, especially local distribution circuits that are prone to storm-related outages. Second, by combining DERs with modern demand-side management programs and technology, utilities can access and leverage these additional resources to help them manage peak demand in real time and avoid blackout scenarios.

Near-term strategies and long-term priorities

Increasing electrical capacity with utility-scale renewable energy and storage projects and making necessary electrical infrastructure updates are critical to meet projected demand. However, these projects are complex, resource-intensive and take years to complete. The need for robust demand-side management is more urgent than ever.

Texas needs rapidly deployable solutions now. That’s where demand-side management comes in. This strategy enables grid operators to keep the lights on by lowering peak demand rather than burning more fossil fuels to meet it or, worse, shutting everything off.

Demand response, a demand-side management program, is vital in balancing the grid by lowering electricity demand through load control devices to ensure grid stability. Programs typically involve residential energy consumers volunteering to let the grid operator reduce their energy consumption at a planned time or when the grid is under peak load, typically in exchange for a credit on their energy bill. ERCOT, for example, implements demand response and rate structure programs to reduce strain on the grid and plans to increase these strategies in the future, especially during the months when extreme weather events are more likely and demand is highest.

The primary solution for meeting peak demand and preventing blackouts is for the utility to turn on expensive, highly polluting, gas-powered “peaker” plants. Unfortunately, there’s a push to add more of these plants to the grid in anticipation of increasing demand. Instead of desperately burning fossil fuels, we should get more out of our existing infrastructure through demand-side management.

Optimizing existing infrastructure

The effectiveness of demand response programs depends in part on energy customers' participation. Despite the financial incentive, customers may be reluctant to participate because they don’t want to relinquish control over their AC. Grid operators also need timely energy usage data from responsive load control technology to plan and react to demand fluctuations. Traditional load control switches don’t provide these benefits.

However, intelligent residential load management technology like smart panels can modernize demand response programs and maximize their effectiveness with real-time data and unprecedented responsiveness. They can encourage customer participation with a less intrusive approach – unlocking the ability for the customer to choose from multiple appliances to enroll. They can also provide notifications for upcoming demand response events, allowing the customer to plan for the event or even opt-out by appliance. In addition to their demand response benefits, smart panels empower homeowners to optimize their home energy and unlock extended runtime for home batteries during a blackout.

Utilities and government should also encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources like rooftop solar and home batteries. These resources can be combined with residential load management technology to drastically increase the effectiveness of demand response programs, granting utilities more grid-stabilizing resources to prevent blackouts.

Solar and storage play a key role

During the ten demand records in the summer of 2023, batteries discharging in the evening helped avoid blackouts, while solar and wind generation covered more than a third of ERCOT's daytime load demand, preventing power price spikes.

Rooftop solar panels generate electricity that can be stored in battery backup systems, providing reliable energy during outages or peak demand. Smart panels extend the runtime of these batteries through automated energy optimization, ensuring critical loads are prioritized and managed efficiently.

Load management technology, like smart panels, enhances the effectiveness of DERs. In rolling blackouts, homeowners with battery storage can rely on smart panels to manage energy use, keeping essential appliances operational and extending stored energy usability. Smart panels allow utilities to effectively manage peak demand, enabling load flexibility and preventing grid overburdening. These technologies and an effective demand response strategy can help Texans optimize the existing energy capacity and infrastructure.

A more resilient energy future

Texas can turn its energy challenges into opportunities by embracing advanced energy management technologies and robust demand-side strategies. Smart panels and distributed energy resources like solar and battery storage offer a promising path to a resilient and efficient grid. As Texans navigate increasing electricity demands and extreme weather events, these innovations provide hope for a future where reliable energy is accessible to all, ensuring grid stability and enhancing the quality of life across the state.

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Kelly Warner is the CEO of Lumin, a responsive energy management solutions company.

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Renewables to play greater role in powering data centers, JLL says

Data analysis

Renewable energy is evolving as the primary energy source for large data centers, according to a new report.

The 2026 Global Data Center Outlook from commercial real estate services giant JLL points out that the pivot toward big data centers being powered by renewable energy stems from rising electricity costs and tightening carbon reduction requirements. In the data center sector, renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to outcompete fossil fuels on cost, the report says.

The JLL forecast carries implications for the Houston area’s tech and renewable energy sectors.

As of December, Texas was home to 413 data centers, second only to Virginia at 665, according to Visual Capitalist. Dozens more data centers are in the pipeline, with many of the new facilities slated for the Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas.

Amid Texas’ data center boom, several Houston companies are making inroads in the renewable energy market for data centers. For example, Houston-based low-carbon energy supplier ENGIE North America agreed last May to supply up to 300 megawatts of wind power for a Cipher Mining data center in West Texas.

The JLL report says power, not location or cost, will become the primary factor in selecting sites for data centers due to multi-year waits for grid connections.

“Energy infrastructure has emerged as the critical bottleneck constraining expansion [of data centers],” the report says. “Grid limitations now threaten to curtail growth trajectories, making behind-the-meter generation and integrated battery storage solutions essential pathways for sustainable scaling.”

Behind-the-meter generation refers to onsite energy systems such as microgrids, solar panels and solar battery storage. The report predicts global solar capacity will expand by roughly 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030 to more than 10,000 gigawatts.

“Solar will account for nearly half of global renewable energy capacity in 2026, and despite its intermittent properties, solar will remain a key source of sustainable energy for the data center sector for years to come,” the report says.

Thanks to cost and sustainability benefits, solar-plus-storage will become a key element of energy strategies for data centers by 2030, according to the report.

“While some of this energy harvesting will be colocated with data center facilities, much of the energy infrastructure will be installed offsite,” the report says.

Other findings of the report include:

  • AI could represent half of data center workloads by 2030, up from a quarter in 2025.
  • The current five-year “supercycle” of data center infrastructure development may result in global investments of up to $3 trillion by 2030.
  • Nearly 100 gigawatts worth of new data centers will be added between 2026 and 2030, doubling global capacity.

“We’re witnessing the most significant transformation in data center infrastructure since the original cloud migration,” says Matt Landek, who leads JLL’s data center division. “The sheer scale of demand is extraordinary.”

Hyperscalers, which operate massive data centers, are allocating $1 trillion for data center spending between 2024 and 2026, Landek notes, “while supply constraints and four-year grid connection delays are creating a perfect storm that’s fundamentally reshaping how we approach development, energy sourcing, and market strategy.”

Houston-based NRG announces new CEO and succession plan

new leader

Houston-based NRG Energy Inc. announced Jan. 7 that it has appointed Robert J. Gaudette as president and CEO. Gaudette took over as president effective Jan. 7 and will assume the role of CEO April 30, coinciding with the company's next stockholder meeting.

Gaudette, who previously served as executive vice president and president of NRG Business and Wholesale Operations, will succeed Lawrence Coben in the leadership roles. Coben will remain an advisor to NRG through the end of the year and will also continue to serve as board chair until April 30. Antonio Carrillo, lead independent director at NRG, will take over as board chair.

"Rob has played a central role in strengthening NRG’s position as a leader in our industry through strategic growth, operational excellence, and customer-focused innovation," Coben said in the news release. "He is a strong, decisive leader with extensive knowledge of our business, markets, and customers. The Board and I are confident that Rob is the right person to lead NRG forward and take the NRG rocket ship to new heights. I can’t wait to see what comes next.”

Gaudette has been with NRG since 2001. He has served as EVP of NRG Business and Market Operations since 2022 and president of NRG Business and Market Operations since 2024. In these roles, he led NRG’s power generation and oversaw its portfolio of commercial and industrial products and services as well as its market operations, according to the company.

He has held various executive leadership roles at NRG. He earned his bachelor's degree in chemistry from The College of William and Mary and an MBA at Rice University, where he was a Jones Scholar. He also served four years as an Army officer.

“It is an honor to be appointed NRG’s next CEO at this transformative time for the energy sector and our company,” Gaudette said in the release. “With NRG’s electricity, natural gas and smart home portfolio, we are ideally positioned to meet America’s evolving energy needs. I am grateful to Larry and all my NRG colleagues, both past and present, who built our great company and positioned us for the future. I look forward to leading our incredible team to deliver affordable, resilient power for the customers and communities we serve, while creating substantial value for our shareholders.”

In addition to its traditional power generation and electricity businesses, NRG has been working to develop a 1-gigawatt virtual power plant by connecting thousands of decentralized energy sources by 2035 in an effort to meet Texas’ surging energy demands.

The company announced partnerships last year with two California-based companies to bolster home battery use and grow its network. NRG has said the VPP could provide energy to 200,000 homes during peak demand.

10+ must-attend Houston energy events happening in Q1 2026

Mark Your Calendar

Editor's note: With the new year comes a new slate of must-attend events for those in the Houston energy sector. We've rounded up a host of events to put on your calendar for Q1, including some that you can attend this month. Plus, other premier annual events will return in February and March 2026 and are currently offering early-bird, discounted registration. Book now.

Jan. 7-8 — AAPG Subsurface Energy to Power Workshop

This two-day AAPG workshop explores the expanding role of natural gas, geothermal, hydrogen, lithium, and uranium in accelerating electricity capacity. Participants will examine innovative solutions designed to reduce reliance on long-distance transmission lines, pipelines, and other costly infrastructure. Throughout the workshop, attendees will gain insight into both the technical deployment of subsurface resources and the land, legal, and permitting factors that influence project development.

This event begins Jan. 7 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 19-22 — PPIM 2026

The 38th international Pipeline Pigging & Integrity Management Conference and Exhibition takes place over four days at the George R. Brown Convention Center and the Hilton Americas. This industry forum is devoted exclusively to pigging for pipeline maintenance and inspection, engineering assessment, repair, risk management, and NDE. Two days of courses will take place Jan. 19-20, followed by the conference on Jan. 21-22, and the exhibition running Jan. 20-22. Register here.

Jan. 22 — MicroSeismic - Romancing Energy Forum

This forum will feature raw, unfiltered stories from the pioneers who changed the trajectory of American Shale. Attendees will gain insights into the playbooks, decisions, data, and lessons learned behind the biggest discoveries and engineering triumphs in modern energy. Keynote speakers include Tom and Diane Gates of Gates Ranch.

This event begins at 8 am on Jan. 22 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 22 — Houston Downton Luncheon: Beyond the Barrel: Pricing, Transition, and Geopolitics in 2026

Women's Energy Network Houston Chapter hosts this January lunch and learn featuring guest speaker Ha Nguyen with S&P Global Energy. Nguyen will discuss the global energy outlook for 2026, with a focus on strategic drivers, such as decarbonization and EV adoption, and a look at Houston's crucial role in the future of the U.S. market.

This event begins at 11:30 am on Jan. 22 at The Houston Club. Register here.

Feb. 18-20 — NAPE Summit Week 2026

NAPE is the energy industry’s marketplace for the buying, selling, and trading of prospects and producing properties. NAPE brings together all industry disciplines and companies of all sizes, and in 2026 it will introduce three new hubs — offshore, data centers, and critical minerals — for more insights, access, and networking opportunities. The event includes a summit, exhibition, and more.

This event begins Feb. 18 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Feb. 24-26 — 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference

The 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference marks the 19th year for the Ken Kennedy Institute to convene experts from the energy industry, academia, and national labs to share breakthroughs for HPC and AI technologies. The conference returns to Houston with engaging speaker sessions, a technical talk program, networking receptions, add-on workshops, and more.

This event begins Feb. 24 at Rice University's BRC. Register here.

Feb. 26 — February Transition on Tap

Mix and mingle at Greentown Labs' first Transition on Tap event of the year. Meet the accelerator's newest startup members, who are working on innovations ranging from methane capture to emissions-free manufacturing processes to carbon management.

This event begins at 5:30 pm on Feb. 26 at Greentown Labs Houston. Register here.

March 2-4 — The Future Energy Summit

The Future Energy Summit is a premier global event bringing together visionaries, industry leaders, and energy experts to shape the future of energy. The second edition of the conference will provide a platform for groundbreaking discussions, cutting-edge technologies, and transformative strategies that will accelerate the energy transition.

This event begins March 2. Register here.

March 10-12 — World Hydrogen & Carbon Americas

S&P Global Energy brings together two leading events — Carbon Management Americas and World Hydrogen North America — to form a new must-attend event for those in the hydrogen and carbon industries. More than 800 senior leaders from across the energy value chain will attend this event featuring immersive roundtable discussions, hands-on training, real-world case studies, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

This event begins March 10 at Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

March 23-27 — CERAWeek 2026

CERAWeek 2026 will focus on "Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics." The industry's foremost thought leaders will convene in Houston to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas during the annual event. Through the lens of 16 dynamic themes, CERAWeek 2026 will explore breakthroughs, cross-industry connections, and powerful partnerships that are accelerating the transformation of the global energy system.

This event begins March 23. Register here.

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