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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Texas has the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Photo by Sam LaRussa on Unsplash

Expert: Debunking the myth that Texas doesn't care about renewable energy

Guest Column

When most people think about Texas, wind turbines and solar panels may not be the first images that come to mind. But in reality, the state now leads the nation in both wind-powered electricity generation and utility-scale solar capacity. In 2024 alone, Texas added approximately 9,700 megawatts of solar and 4,374 megawatts of battery storage, outpacing all other energy sources in new generation capacity that year. So what’s driving Texas’ rapid rise as the renewable energy capital of the United States?

Leader in wind energy

Texas has been a national leader in wind energy for more than a decade, thanks to its vast open landscapes and consistent wind conditions, particularly in regions like West Texas and the Panhandle. These ideal geographic features have enabled the development of massive wind farms, giving Texas the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Wind energy also plays a strategic role in balancing the grid and complements solar energy well, as it often peaks at night when solar output drops.

Battery storage growth

Increasing battery storage capacity is unlocking more potential from solar and wind. When intermittent energy sources like wind and solar go offline, batteries release stored electricity and provide stability to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system. Excluding California, Texas has more battery storage than the rest of the United States combined, accounting for over 32% of all the capacity installed nationwide.

Solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. Between June 1 and August 31, solar contributed nearly 25% of total power demand during mid-day hours. In the evening, as demand stayed high but solar output declined, battery discharges successfully filled the gap. Battery storage solutions are now a core element of ERCOT’s future capacity and demand planning.

Interest in creating a hydrogen economy

Texas is well positioned to become a national hub in the hydrogen economy. The state has everything needed to lead in this emerging space with low-cost natural gas, abundant and growing low carbon electricity, geology well suited for hydrogen and carbon storage, mature hydrogen demand centers, existing hydrogen pipelines, established port infrastructure and more. The state already has an existing hydrogen market with two-thirds of the country’s hydrogen transport infrastructure.

In 2023, the Texas Legislature created the Texas Hydrogen Production Policy Council, which found that:

  • Hydrogen could represent a grid-scale energy storage solution that can help support the increased development of renewable electricity from wind and solar. Renewable electricity that is converted to hydrogen can improve overall grid reliability, resilience and dispatchability.
  • The development of the hydrogen industry, along with its supporting infrastructure and its downstream markets within Texas, could attract billions of dollars of investment. This development may create hundreds of thousands of jobs - especially with younger generations who are passionate about climate science - and greatly boost the Texas economy.
  • Hydrogen supports the current energy economy in Texas as a critical component to both conventional refining and the growing production of new biofuels (such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel) within the state.

Legislative action and pressure to reduce carbon emissions

Texas has also seen key legislative actions and policies that have supported the growth of renewable energy in Texas. During the most recent legislative session, lawmakers decided that The Texas Energy Fund, a low-interest loan program aimed at encouraging companies to build more power infrastructure, will receive an additional $5 billion on top of the $5 billion lawmakers approved in 2023. Of that amount, $1.8 billion is earmarked to strengthen existing backup generators, which must be powered by a combination of solar, battery storage and natural gas. These funds signal growing institutional support for a diversified and more resilient energy grid.

Furthermore, there is growing pressure from investors, regulators and consumers to reduce carbon emissions, and as a result, private equity firms in the oil and gas sector are diversifying their portfolios to include wind, solar, battery storage and carbon capture projects. In 2022, private equity investment in renewable energy and clean technology surged to a record-high $26 billion.

The future of the renewable energy workforce

With renewable energy jobs projected to grow to 38 million globally by 2030, the sector is poised to be one of the most promising career landscapes of the future. Given that young people today are increasingly environmentally conscious, there is a powerful opportunity to engage students early and help them see how their values align with meaningful, purpose-driven careers in clean energy. Organizations like the Energy Education Foundation play a vital role in this effort by providing accessible, high-quality resources that bridge the gap between energy literacy and real-world impact. The nonprofit employs comprehensive, science-based educational initiatives to help students and educators explore complex energy topics through clear explanations and engaging learning tools, laying a strong foundation for informed, future-ready learners.

STEM and AI education, which are reshaping how young people think, build, and solve problems, provide a natural gateway into the renewable energy field. From robotics and coding to climate modeling and sustainable engineering, these learning experiences equip students with the critical skills and mindsets needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving energy economy. By investing in engaging, future-focused learning environments now and through leveraging trusted educational partners, like the Energy Education Foundation, we can help ensure that the next generation of learners are not just prepared to enter the clean energy workforce but are empowered to lead it.

With its rapidly growing wind, solar, battery and hydrogen sectors, Texas is redefining its energy identity. To sustain this momentum, the state must continue aligning education, policy, and innovation—not only to meet the energy demands of tomorrow, but to inspire and equip the next generation to lead the way toward a more sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future.

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Kristen Barley is the executive director of the Energy Education Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to inspiring the next generation of energy leaders by providing comprehensive, engaging education that spans the entire energy spectrum.


Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. File photo

New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024

by the numbers

The winds of change in power generation are sweeping through Texas.

Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. The report shows:

  • Texas contributed more (12 terawatt-hours) to the country’s 64 terawatt-hour rise in solar generation last year than any other state.
  • Texas installed more solar (7.4 gigawatts) and battery (3.9 gigawatt) capacity than any other state.
  • Texas installed more utility-scale battery capacity (3.9 gigawatts) than any other state.
  • Texas saw the second biggest increase (eight terawatt-hours) in natural gas generation in 2024. Only Virginia, at 10 terawatt-hours, ranked higher.
  • Texas ranked second among the states for the biggest drop in production of coal-fueled power (6.07 terawatt-hours), preceded only by Wyoming (6.3 terawatt-hours).

Overall, coal represented 14 percent of power generation in Texas last year, with the combination of wind and solar at 30 percent, according to the report. Across the U.S., says the report, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal for the first time. Coal generation made up just 15% of U.S. electricity generation in 2024.

“The shift away from coal has been primarily driven by market dynamics and availability of more cost-effective resources,” the report says. “The unit costs of wind and solar have reduced significantly and their quick installation makes them commercially attractive.”

Citing data like the figures published by Ember, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott champions Texas as the “Energy Capital of the World,” a title that Houston also claims.

“As Texas continues to experience unprecedented growth, we will remain a leader in energy while also bolstering the Texas grid to meet the growing demands of our great state,” Abbott said in 2024.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

Untapped potential: The role of residential energy management in Texas

Guest Column

Texas stands out among other states when it comes to energy production.

Even after mass rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the Lone Star State produced more electricity than any other state in 2022. However, it also exemplifies how challenging it can be to ensure grid reliability. The following summer, the state’s grid manager, the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), experienced ten occasions of record-breaking demand.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand, as the outages caused by Hurricane Beryl demonstrated.

A bigger storm is brewing

Electric demand is poised to increase exponentially over the next few years. Grid planners nationwide are doubling their five-year load forecast. Texas predicts it will need to provide nearly double the amount of power within six years. These projections anticipate increasing demand from buildings, transportation, manufacturing, data centers, AI and electrification, underscoring the daunting challenges utilities face in maintaining grid reliability and managing rising demand.

However, Texas can accelerate its journey to becoming a grid reliability success story by taking two impactful steps. First, it could do more to encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) like residential solar and battery storage to better balance the prodigious amounts of remote grid-scale renewables that have been deployed over the past decade. More DERs mean more local energy resources that can support the grid, especially local distribution circuits that are prone to storm-related outages. Second, by combining DERs with modern demand-side management programs and technology, utilities can access and leverage these additional resources to help them manage peak demand in real time and avoid blackout scenarios.

Near-term strategies and long-term priorities

Increasing electrical capacity with utility-scale renewable energy and storage projects and making necessary electrical infrastructure updates are critical to meet projected demand. However, these projects are complex, resource-intensive and take years to complete. The need for robust demand-side management is more urgent than ever.

Texas needs rapidly deployable solutions now. That’s where demand-side management comes in. This strategy enables grid operators to keep the lights on by lowering peak demand rather than burning more fossil fuels to meet it or, worse, shutting everything off.

Demand response, a demand-side management program, is vital in balancing the grid by lowering electricity demand through load control devices to ensure grid stability. Programs typically involve residential energy consumers volunteering to let the grid operator reduce their energy consumption at a planned time or when the grid is under peak load, typically in exchange for a credit on their energy bill. ERCOT, for example, implements demand response and rate structure programs to reduce strain on the grid and plans to increase these strategies in the future, especially during the months when extreme weather events are more likely and demand is highest.

The primary solution for meeting peak demand and preventing blackouts is for the utility to turn on expensive, highly polluting, gas-powered “peaker” plants. Unfortunately, there’s a push to add more of these plants to the grid in anticipation of increasing demand. Instead of desperately burning fossil fuels, we should get more out of our existing infrastructure through demand-side management.

Optimizing existing infrastructure

The effectiveness of demand response programs depends in part on energy customers' participation. Despite the financial incentive, customers may be reluctant to participate because they don’t want to relinquish control over their AC. Grid operators also need timely energy usage data from responsive load control technology to plan and react to demand fluctuations. Traditional load control switches don’t provide these benefits.

However, intelligent residential load management technology like smart panels can modernize demand response programs and maximize their effectiveness with real-time data and unprecedented responsiveness. They can encourage customer participation with a less intrusive approach – unlocking the ability for the customer to choose from multiple appliances to enroll. They can also provide notifications for upcoming demand response events, allowing the customer to plan for the event or even opt-out by appliance. In addition to their demand response benefits, smart panels empower homeowners to optimize their home energy and unlock extended runtime for home batteries during a blackout.

Utilities and government should also encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources like rooftop solar and home batteries. These resources can be combined with residential load management technology to drastically increase the effectiveness of demand response programs, granting utilities more grid-stabilizing resources to prevent blackouts.

Solar and storage play a key role

During the ten demand records in the summer of 2023, batteries discharging in the evening helped avoid blackouts, while solar and wind generation covered more than a third of ERCOT's daytime load demand, preventing power price spikes.

Rooftop solar panels generate electricity that can be stored in battery backup systems, providing reliable energy during outages or peak demand. Smart panels extend the runtime of these batteries through automated energy optimization, ensuring critical loads are prioritized and managed efficiently.

Load management technology, like smart panels, enhances the effectiveness of DERs. In rolling blackouts, homeowners with battery storage can rely on smart panels to manage energy use, keeping essential appliances operational and extending stored energy usability. Smart panels allow utilities to effectively manage peak demand, enabling load flexibility and preventing grid overburdening. These technologies and an effective demand response strategy can help Texans optimize the existing energy capacity and infrastructure.

A more resilient energy future

Texas can turn its energy challenges into opportunities by embracing advanced energy management technologies and robust demand-side strategies. Smart panels and distributed energy resources like solar and battery storage offer a promising path to a resilient and efficient grid. As Texans navigate increasing electricity demands and extreme weather events, these innovations provide hope for a future where reliable energy is accessible to all, ensuring grid stability and enhancing the quality of life across the state.

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Kelly Warner is the CEO of Lumin, a responsive energy management solutions company.

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CPS Energy invests $1.4B in Houston hydrogen-ready power plants

CPS Energy, which services San Antonio, has agreed to acquire four state-of-the-art natural gas power generation facilities in the Houston area from Missouri-based PROENERGY for $1.387 billion, according to a release.

The recently constructed plants have an aggregate electric capacity of 1,632 megawatts and are located in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) markets in Harris, Brazoria and Galveston counties. The assets are dual-fuel capable, which would allow CPS Energy to transition to a hydrogen fuel blend and reduce carbon emissions.

CPS president and CEO Rudy Garza said that the acquisition presents a lower cost and lower supply chain risk alternative to building new power facilities while providing reliable, affordable and cleaner energy.

“We are getting the best of both worlds by securing new infrastructure without delay while also strengthening the power supply for our community,” Garza said in a news release. “This acquisition secures reliable capacity today – at a lower cost – and is a win for the customers of CPS Energy, the city of San Antonio and all the communities we serve by meeting their long-term energy needs. As we add resources to meet the needs of our fast-growing communities, we will continue to look to a diverse balance of energy sources that complement our portfolio, including natural gas, solar, wind, and storage, keeping our community powered and growing.”

PROENERGY will continue to staff, operate, and maintain the plants.

“By acquiring recently constructed, currently operating modern power plants that utilize proven technology already in use by CPS Energy, we avoid higher construction costs, inflationary risk, and long timelines associated with building new facilities – while also enhancing the reliability and affordability of the CPS Energy generation portfolio,” Garza added in the release.

CPS Energy is one of the nation’s largest public power, natural gas, and electric companies with 950,000 electric and 389,000 natural gas customers in the San Antonio area and surrounding counties.

Expert: How technology is transforming energy education and powering young minds

Guest Column

In today’s ever-changing digital world, the way we teach kids about science is rapidly transforming. Energy education, specifically, is expanding and contributing to the STEM landscape significantly. Helping children understand where energy comes from, how we use it in our everyday lives and how it affects our planet is critical to sparking early interest in STEM learning and inspiring potential careers in the energy industry.

Thanks to new technology and the power of artificial intelligence, we are better equipped to explain these complex ideas in fun, interactive and easy-to-understand ways.

The Role of Educational Technology in Classrooms

Traditional teaching methods can struggle to connect scientific concepts to students’ everyday experiences. A 2023 study found that technology not only makes learning more engaging and enjoyable but also encourages students to invest more effort in their studies over time.

Tools like tablets, smartboards, interactive simulations and gamified learning apps allow students to visualize energy systems, conduct virtual experiments and explore dynamic models that demonstrate how energy flows through different systems.

For example, virtual labs allow students to simulate the installation of solar panels or observe how wind turbines convert kinetic energy into electricity, all without leaving the classroom. These digital tools transform abstract theories into concrete, hands-on experiences, making it easier for students to understand and retain core principles of energy science.

Gamified learning has also become increasingly popular in K–12 classrooms because it engages students by meeting them where they are through interactive, game-like experiences. By incorporating familiar motivators such as points, levels, rewards and challenges, it taps into the same engagement techniques students encounter in video games and apps outside the classroom.

In an era when competition for students’ attention is higher than ever, more educators are turning to gamification because it works; it transforms passive learning into an active, student-centered experience, helping learners stay focused and motivated.

When applied to energy education, gamification can be especially powerful. Educational games that task students with managing a virtual city, designing energy-efficient systems or balancing an energy budget help build valuable real-world skills like problem-solving and systems thinking. Most importantly, they keep students engaged and make learning about energy meaningful.

Equity and Access in Educational Technology

While technology and AI offer immense potential to transform energy education, it is crucial to address the digital divide that exists across different schools and communities. Not all students have equal access to the devices, software or reliable internet connectivity needed to benefit from these innovative learning tools.

Bridging this gap requires collaborative efforts through public-private partnerships, targeted grants and community-driven educational outreach programs. These initiatives play a vital role in ensuring that every student, regardless of socioeconomic background or geographic location, has the opportunity to engage with tech-driven energy education.

Organizations like the Energy Education Foundation are taking meaningful steps in this direction. This fall, the nonprofit is launching EnergyXP, an innovative, mobile STEM learning experience designed for middle school students. The program offers 16 interactive, hands-on, and digital activities aligned with the Next Generation Science Standards, and is provided free of charge to participating schools. Through EnergyXP, students explore diverse energy concepts while building curiosity, collaboration and critical thinking skills. The program links classroom learning to real-world applications, helping students see the role of energy in their daily lives and sparking interest in STEM careers.

Other promising initiatives such as community tech hubs, low connectivity learning platforms, school-device loan programs and subsidized broadband options also support increased access to digital education. In Harris County, the Commissioners Court recently voted unanimously to create the Harris County Broadband Task Force with the aim of expanding internet access and affordability and addressing the growing digital literacy demands in the region. Additionally, Compudopt, a partner of the Energy Education Foundation, is another valuable resource for the Houston-area community. Its programs work to eliminate barriers to computer access, build technical and digital literacy skills, offer no- or low-cost high-speed internet options and support the long-term success of youth and their communities.

By supporting programs and organizations that decrease the digital divide, we can ensure that all students have access to engaging, technology-driven energy education. Providing young learners with the tools to explore, innovate and connect with the energy systems that power their world is key to building a more diverse, inclusive energy workforce for the future.

AI is Transforming the Energy Landscape

Students who utilize technology and AI in the classroom will be better equipped for the energy jobs of the future. As the energy sector continues to evolve, AI is becoming an essential tool for addressing complex challenges from optimizing energy production and distribution to accelerating innovation and improving system reliability.

By exposing students to AI-driven learning experiences early on, we can help them build the skills needed to understand and contribute to emerging technologies such as smart grids, predictive maintenance, renewable energy forecasting and energy storage optimization. These technologies are already shaping the future of how we produce, store and consume energy.

Through hands-on engagement with AI-powered simulations, data analysis tools and problem-solving scenarios, students are learning how to lead in a tech-driven, sustainable energy future.

As the world transitions toward more technology-driven energy systems, the importance of early, engaging and equitable energy education has never been more critical. Through the integration of technology, gamified learning and AI in the classroom, we can make science more accessible and empower students with the knowledge and skills they need to shape the future. Programs like EnergyXP demonstrate how innovation in education can bridge opportunity gaps, spark curiosity and lay the groundwork for a more inclusive and forward-thinking energy workforce. The investments we make in today’s classrooms will determine the energy leaders of tomorrow.

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Kristen Barley is the executive director of the Energy Education Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to inspiring the next generation of energy leaders by providing comprehensive, engaging education that spans the entire energy spectrum.


Daikin to run massive Houston-area campus on solar power through new Engie partnership

power deal

Japan-based HVAC manufacturer Daikin has struck a five-year deal with Houston-based Engie North America to fully power its Texas facilities with renewable energy.

The deal includes Daikin Texas Technology Park (DTTP), home to the company’s North American headquarters and its largest factory (and one of the largest factories in the world). The more than $500 million, 4.2 million-square-foot campus sits on nearly 500 acres in Waller.

The technology park, which held its grand opening in 2017, combines manufacturing, engineering, logistics, marketing, and sales operations for Amana, Daikin and Goodman HVAC products. Earlier this year, Daikin installed a solar array at DTTP to power its central chiller plant.

Under the new agreement, Daikin will pay Engie North America for clean electricity from the 260-megawatt Impact Solar Farm, located northeast of Dallas-Fort Worth in Lamar County. Engie North America is a subsidiary of French utility company Engie.

The $250 million solar farm, which London-based Lightsource BP started operating in 2021, produces about 450,000 megawatt-hours of solar power each year. Lightsource, which has an office in Austin, develops, finances and operates utility-scale renewable energy projects. Lightsource BP is a subsidiary of energy giant BP, whose North American headquarters is in Houston.

“This initiative represents a major step forward in aligning our operations with Daikin’s long-term sustainability goals,” Mike Knights, senior vice president of procurement at Daikin, said in a release.

Daikin aims to make its DTTP a net-zero factory by 2030.

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