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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Texas has the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Photo by Sam LaRussa on Unsplash

Expert: Debunking the myth that Texas doesn't care about renewable energy

Guest Column

When most people think about Texas, wind turbines and solar panels may not be the first images that come to mind. But in reality, the state now leads the nation in both wind-powered electricity generation and utility-scale solar capacity. In 2024 alone, Texas added approximately 9,700 megawatts of solar and 4,374 megawatts of battery storage, outpacing all other energy sources in new generation capacity that year. So what’s driving Texas’ rapid rise as the renewable energy capital of the United States?

Leader in wind energy

Texas has been a national leader in wind energy for more than a decade, thanks to its vast open landscapes and consistent wind conditions, particularly in regions like West Texas and the Panhandle. These ideal geographic features have enabled the development of massive wind farms, giving Texas the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Wind energy also plays a strategic role in balancing the grid and complements solar energy well, as it often peaks at night when solar output drops.

Battery storage growth

Increasing battery storage capacity is unlocking more potential from solar and wind. When intermittent energy sources like wind and solar go offline, batteries release stored electricity and provide stability to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system. Excluding California, Texas has more battery storage than the rest of the United States combined, accounting for over 32% of all the capacity installed nationwide.

Solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. Between June 1 and August 31, solar contributed nearly 25% of total power demand during mid-day hours. In the evening, as demand stayed high but solar output declined, battery discharges successfully filled the gap. Battery storage solutions are now a core element of ERCOT’s future capacity and demand planning.

Interest in creating a hydrogen economy

Texas is well positioned to become a national hub in the hydrogen economy. The state has everything needed to lead in this emerging space with low-cost natural gas, abundant and growing low carbon electricity, geology well suited for hydrogen and carbon storage, mature hydrogen demand centers, existing hydrogen pipelines, established port infrastructure and more. The state already has an existing hydrogen market with two-thirds of the country’s hydrogen transport infrastructure.

In 2023, the Texas Legislature created the Texas Hydrogen Production Policy Council, which found that:

  • Hydrogen could represent a grid-scale energy storage solution that can help support the increased development of renewable electricity from wind and solar. Renewable electricity that is converted to hydrogen can improve overall grid reliability, resilience and dispatchability.
  • The development of the hydrogen industry, along with its supporting infrastructure and its downstream markets within Texas, could attract billions of dollars of investment. This development may create hundreds of thousands of jobs - especially with younger generations who are passionate about climate science - and greatly boost the Texas economy.
  • Hydrogen supports the current energy economy in Texas as a critical component to both conventional refining and the growing production of new biofuels (such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel) within the state.

Legislative action and pressure to reduce carbon emissions

Texas has also seen key legislative actions and policies that have supported the growth of renewable energy in Texas. During the most recent legislative session, lawmakers decided that The Texas Energy Fund, a low-interest loan program aimed at encouraging companies to build more power infrastructure, will receive an additional $5 billion on top of the $5 billion lawmakers approved in 2023. Of that amount, $1.8 billion is earmarked to strengthen existing backup generators, which must be powered by a combination of solar, battery storage and natural gas. These funds signal growing institutional support for a diversified and more resilient energy grid.

Furthermore, there is growing pressure from investors, regulators and consumers to reduce carbon emissions, and as a result, private equity firms in the oil and gas sector are diversifying their portfolios to include wind, solar, battery storage and carbon capture projects. In 2022, private equity investment in renewable energy and clean technology surged to a record-high $26 billion.

The future of the renewable energy workforce

With renewable energy jobs projected to grow to 38 million globally by 2030, the sector is poised to be one of the most promising career landscapes of the future. Given that young people today are increasingly environmentally conscious, there is a powerful opportunity to engage students early and help them see how their values align with meaningful, purpose-driven careers in clean energy. Organizations like the Energy Education Foundation play a vital role in this effort by providing accessible, high-quality resources that bridge the gap between energy literacy and real-world impact. The nonprofit employs comprehensive, science-based educational initiatives to help students and educators explore complex energy topics through clear explanations and engaging learning tools, laying a strong foundation for informed, future-ready learners.

STEM and AI education, which are reshaping how young people think, build, and solve problems, provide a natural gateway into the renewable energy field. From robotics and coding to climate modeling and sustainable engineering, these learning experiences equip students with the critical skills and mindsets needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving energy economy. By investing in engaging, future-focused learning environments now and through leveraging trusted educational partners, like the Energy Education Foundation, we can help ensure that the next generation of learners are not just prepared to enter the clean energy workforce but are empowered to lead it.

With its rapidly growing wind, solar, battery and hydrogen sectors, Texas is redefining its energy identity. To sustain this momentum, the state must continue aligning education, policy, and innovation—not only to meet the energy demands of tomorrow, but to inspire and equip the next generation to lead the way toward a more sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future.

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Kristen Barley is the executive director of the Energy Education Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to inspiring the next generation of energy leaders by providing comprehensive, engaging education that spans the entire energy spectrum.


Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. File photo

New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024

by the numbers

The winds of change in power generation are sweeping through Texas.

Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. The report shows:

  • Texas contributed more (12 terawatt-hours) to the country’s 64 terawatt-hour rise in solar generation last year than any other state.
  • Texas installed more solar (7.4 gigawatts) and battery (3.9 gigawatt) capacity than any other state.
  • Texas installed more utility-scale battery capacity (3.9 gigawatts) than any other state.
  • Texas saw the second biggest increase (eight terawatt-hours) in natural gas generation in 2024. Only Virginia, at 10 terawatt-hours, ranked higher.
  • Texas ranked second among the states for the biggest drop in production of coal-fueled power (6.07 terawatt-hours), preceded only by Wyoming (6.3 terawatt-hours).

Overall, coal represented 14 percent of power generation in Texas last year, with the combination of wind and solar at 30 percent, according to the report. Across the U.S., says the report, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal for the first time. Coal generation made up just 15% of U.S. electricity generation in 2024.

“The shift away from coal has been primarily driven by market dynamics and availability of more cost-effective resources,” the report says. “The unit costs of wind and solar have reduced significantly and their quick installation makes them commercially attractive.”

Citing data like the figures published by Ember, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott champions Texas as the “Energy Capital of the World,” a title that Houston also claims.

“As Texas continues to experience unprecedented growth, we will remain a leader in energy while also bolstering the Texas grid to meet the growing demands of our great state,” Abbott said in 2024.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

Untapped potential: The role of residential energy management in Texas

Guest Column

Texas stands out among other states when it comes to energy production.

Even after mass rolling blackouts during Winter Storm Uri in 2021, the Lone Star State produced more electricity than any other state in 2022. However, it also exemplifies how challenging it can be to ensure grid reliability. The following summer, the state’s grid manager, the Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), experienced ten occasions of record-breaking demand.

Despite its high energy production, Texas has had more outages than any other state over the past five years due to the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events and rapidly growing demand, as the outages caused by Hurricane Beryl demonstrated.

A bigger storm is brewing

Electric demand is poised to increase exponentially over the next few years. Grid planners nationwide are doubling their five-year load forecast. Texas predicts it will need to provide nearly double the amount of power within six years. These projections anticipate increasing demand from buildings, transportation, manufacturing, data centers, AI and electrification, underscoring the daunting challenges utilities face in maintaining grid reliability and managing rising demand.

However, Texas can accelerate its journey to becoming a grid reliability success story by taking two impactful steps. First, it could do more to encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) like residential solar and battery storage to better balance the prodigious amounts of remote grid-scale renewables that have been deployed over the past decade. More DERs mean more local energy resources that can support the grid, especially local distribution circuits that are prone to storm-related outages. Second, by combining DERs with modern demand-side management programs and technology, utilities can access and leverage these additional resources to help them manage peak demand in real time and avoid blackout scenarios.

Near-term strategies and long-term priorities

Increasing electrical capacity with utility-scale renewable energy and storage projects and making necessary electrical infrastructure updates are critical to meet projected demand. However, these projects are complex, resource-intensive and take years to complete. The need for robust demand-side management is more urgent than ever.

Texas needs rapidly deployable solutions now. That’s where demand-side management comes in. This strategy enables grid operators to keep the lights on by lowering peak demand rather than burning more fossil fuels to meet it or, worse, shutting everything off.

Demand response, a demand-side management program, is vital in balancing the grid by lowering electricity demand through load control devices to ensure grid stability. Programs typically involve residential energy consumers volunteering to let the grid operator reduce their energy consumption at a planned time or when the grid is under peak load, typically in exchange for a credit on their energy bill. ERCOT, for example, implements demand response and rate structure programs to reduce strain on the grid and plans to increase these strategies in the future, especially during the months when extreme weather events are more likely and demand is highest.

The primary solution for meeting peak demand and preventing blackouts is for the utility to turn on expensive, highly polluting, gas-powered “peaker” plants. Unfortunately, there’s a push to add more of these plants to the grid in anticipation of increasing demand. Instead of desperately burning fossil fuels, we should get more out of our existing infrastructure through demand-side management.

Optimizing existing infrastructure

The effectiveness of demand response programs depends in part on energy customers' participation. Despite the financial incentive, customers may be reluctant to participate because they don’t want to relinquish control over their AC. Grid operators also need timely energy usage data from responsive load control technology to plan and react to demand fluctuations. Traditional load control switches don’t provide these benefits.

However, intelligent residential load management technology like smart panels can modernize demand response programs and maximize their effectiveness with real-time data and unprecedented responsiveness. They can encourage customer participation with a less intrusive approach – unlocking the ability for the customer to choose from multiple appliances to enroll. They can also provide notifications for upcoming demand response events, allowing the customer to plan for the event or even opt-out by appliance. In addition to their demand response benefits, smart panels empower homeowners to optimize their home energy and unlock extended runtime for home batteries during a blackout.

Utilities and government should also encourage the adoption of distributed energy resources like rooftop solar and home batteries. These resources can be combined with residential load management technology to drastically increase the effectiveness of demand response programs, granting utilities more grid-stabilizing resources to prevent blackouts.

Solar and storage play a key role

During the ten demand records in the summer of 2023, batteries discharging in the evening helped avoid blackouts, while solar and wind generation covered more than a third of ERCOT's daytime load demand, preventing power price spikes.

Rooftop solar panels generate electricity that can be stored in battery backup systems, providing reliable energy during outages or peak demand. Smart panels extend the runtime of these batteries through automated energy optimization, ensuring critical loads are prioritized and managed efficiently.

Load management technology, like smart panels, enhances the effectiveness of DERs. In rolling blackouts, homeowners with battery storage can rely on smart panels to manage energy use, keeping essential appliances operational and extending stored energy usability. Smart panels allow utilities to effectively manage peak demand, enabling load flexibility and preventing grid overburdening. These technologies and an effective demand response strategy can help Texans optimize the existing energy capacity and infrastructure.

A more resilient energy future

Texas can turn its energy challenges into opportunities by embracing advanced energy management technologies and robust demand-side strategies. Smart panels and distributed energy resources like solar and battery storage offer a promising path to a resilient and efficient grid. As Texans navigate increasing electricity demands and extreme weather events, these innovations provide hope for a future where reliable energy is accessible to all, ensuring grid stability and enhancing the quality of life across the state.

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Kelly Warner is the CEO of Lumin, a responsive energy management solutions company.

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ExxonMobil may delay or cancel plans for $7 billion Baytown hydrogen plant

project uncertainty

Spring-based ExxonMobil, the country’s largest oil and gas company, might delay or cancel what would be the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen plant due to a significant change in federal law. The project carries a $7 billion price tag.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act created a new 10-year incentive, the 45V tax credit, for production of clean hydrogen. But under President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the window for starting construction of low-carbon hydrogen projects that qualify for the tax credit has narrowed. The Inflation Reduction Act mandated that construction start by 2033. But the Big Beautiful Bill switched the construction start time to early 2028.

“While our project can meet this timeline, we’re concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call.

Woods said ExxonMobil is working to determine whether a combination of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects and the revised 45V tax credit will help pave the way for a “broader” low-carbon hydrogen market.

“If we can’t see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won’t move forward with the [Baytown] project,” Woods said.

“We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line,” he added.

Woods said ExxonMobil is trying to nail down sales contracts connected to the project, including exports of ammonia to Asia and Europe and sales of hydrogen in the U.S.

ExxonMobil announced in 2022 that it would build the low-carbon hydrogen plant at its refining and petrochemical complex in Baytown. The company has said the plant is slated to go online in 2027 and 2028.

As it stands now, ExxonMobil wants the Baytown plant to produce up to 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day made from natural gas, and capture and store more than 98 percent of the associated carbon dioxide. The company has said the project could store as much as 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

EPA scraps $7B solar program, stripping Texas of hundreds of millions in clean energy funds

funding cut

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is ending a $7 billion Biden-era program that was supposed to enable low-income Americans to access affordable solar power. The program, which EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called a “boondoggle,” would have benefited more than 900,000 U.S. households.

In line with the EPA’s action, the Lone Star State is losing a $249.7 million grant awarded last year to the Harris County-led Texas Solar for All Coalition. The grant money would have equipped more than 46,000 low-income and disadvantaged communities and households in Texas with residential solar power. The nonprofit Solar United Neighbors organization said Texas had already begun to roll out this initiative.

Also slipping out of Texas’ hands are:

  • A more than $156 million 19-state grant awarded to the Clean Energy Fund of Texas in partnership with the Bullard Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at Houston’s Texas Southern University. The Clean Energy Fund is a Houston-based “green bank” that backs investments in solar and wind power.
  • Part of a $249.3 million multistate grant awarded to the Community Power Coalition’s Powering America Together Program. The nonprofit Inclusive Prosperity Capital organization leads the coalition.
  • Part of a $249.8 million multistate grant awarded to the Solar Access for Nationwide Affordable Housing Program, led by the nonprofit GRID Alternatives organization.

In a post on the X social media platform, Zeldin said the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” killed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which would have financed the $7 billion Solar for All program.

“The bottom line is this: EPA no longer has the statutory authority to administer the program or the appropriated funds to keep this boondoggle alive,” Zeldin said.

Anya Schoolman, executive director of Washington, D.C.-based Solar United Neighbors, accused the EPA of illegally terminating the Solar for All program. She said ending the program “harms families struggling with rising energy costs and will cost us good local jobs.”

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent, joined Schoolman in alleging the EPA’s “outrageous” action is illegal. Sanders introduced the legislation that established the Solar for All program.

The senator lashed out at President Trump for axing the program in order “to protect the obscene profits of his friends in the oil and gas industry.”

New UH white paper details Texas grid's shortfalls

grid warning

Two University of Houston researchers are issuing a warning about the Texas power grid: Its current infrastructure falls short of what’s needed to keep pace with rising demand for electricity.

The warning comes in a new whitepaper authored by Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president of energy and innovation at UH, and researcher Aparajita Datta, a Ph.D candidate at UH.

“As data centers pop up around the Lone Star State, electric vehicles become more commonplace, industries adopt decarbonization technologies, demographics change, and temperatures rise statewide, electricity needs in Texas could double by 2035,” a UH news release says. “If electrification continues to grow unconstrained, demand could even quadruple over the next decade.”

Without significant upgrades to power plants and supporting infrastructure, Texas could see electricity shortages, rising power costs and more stress on the state’s grid in coming years, the researchers say. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid serves 90 percent of the state.

“Texas, like much of the nation, has fallen behind on infrastructure updates, and the state’s growing population, diversified economy and frequent severe weather events are increasing the strain on the grid,” Datta says. “Texas must improve its grid to ensure people in the state have access to reliable, affordable, and resilient energy systems so we can preserve and grow the quality of life in the state.”

The whitepaper’s authors caution that Texas faces a potential electricity shortfall of up to 40 gigawatts annually by 2035 if the grid doesn’t expand, with a more probable shortfall of about 27 gigawatts. And they allude to a repeat of the massive power outages in Texas during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.

One gigawatt of electricity can power an estimated 750,000 homes in Texas, according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association.

The state’s current energy mix includes 40 percent natural gas, 29 percent wind, 12 percent coal, 10 percent nuclear and eight percent solar, the authors say.

Despite surging demand, 360 gigawatts of solar and battery storage projects are stuck in ERCOT’s queue, according to the researchers, and new natural gas plants have been delayed or withdrawn due to supply chain challenges, bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainties and shifting financial incentives.

Senate Bill 6, recently signed by Gov. Greg Abbott, calls for demand-response mandates, clearer rate structures and new load management requirements for big users of power like data centers and AI hubs.

“While these provisions are a step in the right direction,” says Datta, “Texas needs more responsive and prompt policy action to secure grid reliability, address the geographic mismatch between electricity demand and supply centers, and maintain the state’s global leadership in energy.”

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