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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Texas has the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Photo by Sam LaRussa on Unsplash

Expert: Debunking the myth that Texas doesn't care about renewable energy

Guest Column

When most people think about Texas, wind turbines and solar panels may not be the first images that come to mind. But in reality, the state now leads the nation in both wind-powered electricity generation and utility-scale solar capacity. In 2024 alone, Texas added approximately 9,700 megawatts of solar and 4,374 megawatts of battery storage, outpacing all other energy sources in new generation capacity that year. So what’s driving Texas’ rapid rise as the renewable energy capital of the United States?

Leader in wind energy

Texas has been a national leader in wind energy for more than a decade, thanks to its vast open landscapes and consistent wind conditions, particularly in regions like West Texas and the Panhandle. These ideal geographic features have enabled the development of massive wind farms, giving Texas the largest installed wind capacity in the United States. Wind energy also plays a strategic role in balancing the grid and complements solar energy well, as it often peaks at night when solar output drops.

Battery storage growth

Increasing battery storage capacity is unlocking more potential from solar and wind. When intermittent energy sources like wind and solar go offline, batteries release stored electricity and provide stability to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas system. Excluding California, Texas has more battery storage than the rest of the United States combined, accounting for over 32% of all the capacity installed nationwide.

Solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. Between June 1 and August 31, solar contributed nearly 25% of total power demand during mid-day hours. In the evening, as demand stayed high but solar output declined, battery discharges successfully filled the gap. Battery storage solutions are now a core element of ERCOT’s future capacity and demand planning.

Interest in creating a hydrogen economy

Texas is well positioned to become a national hub in the hydrogen economy. The state has everything needed to lead in this emerging space with low-cost natural gas, abundant and growing low carbon electricity, geology well suited for hydrogen and carbon storage, mature hydrogen demand centers, existing hydrogen pipelines, established port infrastructure and more. The state already has an existing hydrogen market with two-thirds of the country’s hydrogen transport infrastructure.

In 2023, the Texas Legislature created the Texas Hydrogen Production Policy Council, which found that:

  • Hydrogen could represent a grid-scale energy storage solution that can help support the increased development of renewable electricity from wind and solar. Renewable electricity that is converted to hydrogen can improve overall grid reliability, resilience and dispatchability.
  • The development of the hydrogen industry, along with its supporting infrastructure and its downstream markets within Texas, could attract billions of dollars of investment. This development may create hundreds of thousands of jobs - especially with younger generations who are passionate about climate science - and greatly boost the Texas economy.
  • Hydrogen supports the current energy economy in Texas as a critical component to both conventional refining and the growing production of new biofuels (such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel) within the state.

Legislative action and pressure to reduce carbon emissions

Texas has also seen key legislative actions and policies that have supported the growth of renewable energy in Texas. During the most recent legislative session, lawmakers decided that The Texas Energy Fund, a low-interest loan program aimed at encouraging companies to build more power infrastructure, will receive an additional $5 billion on top of the $5 billion lawmakers approved in 2023. Of that amount, $1.8 billion is earmarked to strengthen existing backup generators, which must be powered by a combination of solar, battery storage and natural gas. These funds signal growing institutional support for a diversified and more resilient energy grid.

Furthermore, there is growing pressure from investors, regulators and consumers to reduce carbon emissions, and as a result, private equity firms in the oil and gas sector are diversifying their portfolios to include wind, solar, battery storage and carbon capture projects. In 2022, private equity investment in renewable energy and clean technology surged to a record-high $26 billion.

The future of the renewable energy workforce

With renewable energy jobs projected to grow to 38 million globally by 2030, the sector is poised to be one of the most promising career landscapes of the future. Given that young people today are increasingly environmentally conscious, there is a powerful opportunity to engage students early and help them see how their values align with meaningful, purpose-driven careers in clean energy. Organizations like the Energy Education Foundation play a vital role in this effort by providing accessible, high-quality resources that bridge the gap between energy literacy and real-world impact. The nonprofit employs comprehensive, science-based educational initiatives to help students and educators explore complex energy topics through clear explanations and engaging learning tools, laying a strong foundation for informed, future-ready learners.

STEM and AI education, which are reshaping how young people think, build, and solve problems, provide a natural gateway into the renewable energy field. From robotics and coding to climate modeling and sustainable engineering, these learning experiences equip students with the critical skills and mindsets needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving energy economy. By investing in engaging, future-focused learning environments now and through leveraging trusted educational partners, like the Energy Education Foundation, we can help ensure that the next generation of learners are not just prepared to enter the clean energy workforce but are empowered to lead it.

With its rapidly growing wind, solar, battery and hydrogen sectors, Texas is redefining its energy identity. To sustain this momentum, the state must continue aligning education, policy, and innovation—not only to meet the energy demands of tomorrow, but to inspire and equip the next generation to lead the way toward a more sustainable, resilient and inclusive energy future.

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Kristen Barley is the executive director of the Energy Education Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to inspiring the next generation of energy leaders by providing comprehensive, engaging education that spans the entire energy spectrum.


Engie and CBRE IM have partnered on a portfolio of 31 projects in ERCOT and California-based CAISO territories. Photo via Getty Images

Engie partners on major Texas, California battery storage portfolio

power partners

Houston’s Engie North America has partnered with New York-based CBRE Investment Management on a 2.4-gigawatt portfolio of battery storage assets in Texas and California.

The portfolio consists of 31 projects operating in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and California Independent System Operator (CAISO) territories. According to a company statement, the transaction represents one of Engie’s largest operating portfolio partnerships in the U.S.

“We are delighted that ENGIE and CBRE IM are partnering in this industry-leading transaction, supporting 2.4 GW of storage that will support the growing demand for power in Texas and California,” Dave Carroll, Chief Renewables Officer and SVP, ENGIE North America, said in the news release.

The deal is also one of the sector’s largest sales completed to date. Engie will retain a controlling share in the portfolio and will continue to operate and manage the assets.

“The scale of this portfolio reflects ENGIE’s commitments to meeting the energy needs of the U.S. and increasing the resilience of the ERCOT and CAISO grids,” Carroll added in the news release. “CBRE IM’s investment reflects their confidence in ENGIE’s proven track record in developing, building, operating and financing renewable assets, both in North America and globally.”

In North America, ENGIE currently has more than 11 gigawatts of renewable production and battery storage in operation or construction. Last year, Engie added 4.2 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity worldwide, bringing the total capacity to 46 gigawatts as of December 31. It also recently made a preliminary deal to supply wind power to a Cipher Mining data center in Texas.

As of March 31, 2025, CBRE IM had $149.1 billion in assets under management and operated in 20 countries.

“We are excited to partner with ENGIE on this high-quality, scaled battery storage portfolio with a strong operating track record,” Robert Shaw, managing director, private infrastructure strategies at CBRE Investment Management, said in the release.

SMT Energy, CenterPoint and Irby Construction have broken ground on a 160-megawatt battery energy storage system in ERCOT's Houston zone. Photo via Getty Images

$135 million Houston battery storage facility breaks ground

coming soon

SMT Energy and CenterPoint Energy have partnered with utility infrastructure solutions provider Irby Construction Company to break ground on a 160 megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) located in the Houston zone of the ERCOT market.

“We are proud to be underway and deliver this grid-strengthening project to Houston,” Kevin Midei, SVP of engineering, procurement and construction, at SMT Energy, said in a news release.

The BESS, SMT Houston IV, is expected to support grid stability, deliver fast-response power during peak demands and provide resiliency and renewable integration. The project is expected to be online by 2026 and store and dispatch enough electricity to power 8,800 homes in Texas annually.

SMT Energy is the project owner and developer, and CenterPoint Energy will serve as the interconnecting utility, integrating the system into Houston’s broader electrical network,” according to the companies. Irby Construction will serve as the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor, and construction of the project is expected to be completed by July. On May 14, the companies broke ground with a ribbon-cutting ceremony to symbolize the start of the build.

“Projects like this demonstrate how collaboration and forward-thinking infrastructure come together to power a more resilient energy future,” Tony Gardner, SVP and chief customer officer at CenterPoint, said in a news release. “At CenterPoint, we recently completed nearly 90 percent of our overall grid resiliency improvements. This is one more action we are taking to build a more resilient and reliable grid to better serve our customers.”

In March, Colorado-based SMT Energy secured $135 million in funding for the SMT Houston IV, led by Macquarie and KeyBanc Capital Markets as joint lead arrangers. In 2023, SMT Energy and joint venture partner SUSI Partners announced plans to add 10 battery storage projects to Texas, which would double capacity from 100 megawatts to 200 megawatts in the Houston and Dallas areas.

In 2019, Irby began construction on the Manatee BESS site with Florida Power and Light (FPL), which was the world’s largest BESS project at the time. Irby has built over 30 BESS sites and has more than 20 currently under construction or contract.

China-based Trina Storage is starting its U.S. expansion in Houston. Photo via trinasolar.com

China-based company to launch its largest U.S. energy storage project in Houston

coming soon

Trina Storage and FlexGen, a North Carolina-based company that develops integrated energy storage systems, are bringing a 371-megawatt battery energy storage system to Houston. The project will be the largest grid-scale deployment project in North America by Trina Storage, which is a business unit of China-based Trina Solar.

"This project is a testament to Trina Storage's ability to provide a fully bankable, integrated energy storage solution that meets the evolving needs of the market," Terry Chen, vice president of Trina Storage North America, said in a news release. "As our first grid-scale deployment in North America, this achievement reflects the industry's confidence in our technology and our commitment to de-risking energy storage investments and supporting the energy transition in the region."

The project, developed by Boulder, Colorado-based SMT Energy, will utilize Trina Storage's advanced Elementa 2 battery storage system, which is designed to optimize energy performance and reliability. The system uses Trinas proprietary lithium iron phosphate cells that are more than 95 percent energy efficient, according to the company.

FlexGen will provide system integration and use its HybridOS energy management software. The HybridOS allows site operators to manage systems, detect issues faster and predict maintenance needs.

"This collaboration with Trina Storage and SMT Energy represents another major step in accelerating the deployment of flexible energy storage assets to meet growing demand," Diane Giacomozzi, COO at FlexGen, added in the release. "By pre-integrating FlexGen HybridOS with Trina's Elementa 2 energy storage solution in our Durham Innovation Lab, we're enabling faster project delivery and optimized performance from the first moment of operation."

Trina Storage currently has 10 energy storage facilities in China and two in the UK. The Houston facility is part of its plans to expand across the U.S., according to a LinkedIn post form the company.

Base Power, founded by Justin Lopas and Zach Dell, closed a $200 million series B and plans to expand in Texas and around the country. Photo courtesy Base Power.

Texas energy startup closes $200M round to fund first factory in the state

fresh funding

Base Power, an Austin-based startup that provides battery-powered home energy services and just entered the Houston market, has raised $200 million in series B funding.

The money will help finance the construction of Base Power’s first factory in Texas. A site for the factory hasn’t been announced. The cash will also go toward the national expansion of Base Power’s services.

Andreessen Horowitz, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Valor Equity Partners co-led the round, with participation from existing investors such as Thrive Capital, Altimeter, Terrain, and Trust.

As part of the fundraising, Lee Fixel of Addition and Antonio Gracias of Valor Equity Partners are joining Base Power’s board of directors.

Last year, the startup landed $68 million in a series A funding round.

Base Power, founded in 2023, specializes in developing battery storage for energy that it provides to residential customers. Its partners include homebuilder Lennar and the Bandera Electric Cooperative, which supplies power to customers in seven Hill Country counties. Earlier this year it began serving the Houston-area territory serviced by CenterPoint Energy.

“Our rapid expansion has allowed us to power up thousands of Texans in just a few months, while driving their energy costs down and power reliability up,” Zach Dell, co-founder and CEO of Base Power, says in a news release. “With this investment, we will continue to innovate on new grid solutions, establish our domestic manufacturing capabilities, and accelerate adoption nationally.”

Dell’s father is Austin tech billionaire Michael Dell. He founded the company with Justin Lopas.

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New UH white paper details Texas grid's shortfalls

grid warning

Two University of Houston researchers are issuing a warning about the Texas power grid: Its current infrastructure falls short of what’s needed to keep pace with rising demand for electricity.

The warning comes in a new whitepaper authored by Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president of energy and innovation at UH, and researcher Aparajita Datta, a Ph.D candidate at UH.

“As data centers pop up around the Lone Star State, electric vehicles become more commonplace, industries adopt decarbonization technologies, demographics change, and temperatures rise statewide, electricity needs in Texas could double by 2035,” a UH news release says. “If electrification continues to grow unconstrained, demand could even quadruple over the next decade.”

Without significant upgrades to power plants and supporting infrastructure, Texas could see electricity shortages, rising power costs and more stress on the state’s grid in coming years, the researchers say. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid serves 90 percent of the state.

“Texas, like much of the nation, has fallen behind on infrastructure updates, and the state’s growing population, diversified economy and frequent severe weather events are increasing the strain on the grid,” Datta says. “Texas must improve its grid to ensure people in the state have access to reliable, affordable, and resilient energy systems so we can preserve and grow the quality of life in the state.”

The whitepaper’s authors caution that Texas faces a potential electricity shortfall of up to 40 gigawatts annually by 2035 if the grid doesn’t expand, with a more probable shortfall of about 27 gigawatts. And they allude to a repeat of the massive power outages in Texas during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.

One gigawatt of electricity can power an estimated 750,000 homes in Texas, according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association.

The state’s current energy mix includes 40 percent natural gas, 29 percent wind, 12 percent coal, 10 percent nuclear and eight percent solar, the authors say.

Despite surging demand, 360 gigawatts of solar and battery storage projects are stuck in ERCOT’s queue, according to the researchers, and new natural gas plants have been delayed or withdrawn due to supply chain challenges, bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainties and shifting financial incentives.

Senate Bill 6, recently signed by Gov. Greg Abbott, calls for demand-response mandates, clearer rate structures and new load management requirements for big users of power like data centers and AI hubs.

“While these provisions are a step in the right direction,” says Datta, “Texas needs more responsive and prompt policy action to secure grid reliability, address the geographic mismatch between electricity demand and supply centers, and maintain the state’s global leadership in energy.”

Houston-area logistics co. breaks ground on recycling center tied to circularity hub

coming soon

TALKE USA Inc., a Houston-area arm of German logistics company TALKE, broke ground on its new Recycling Support Center in Mont Belvieu Aug. 1.

The facility will process post-consumer plastic materials, which will then be further processed at Cyclyx's new Houston-based Circularity Center, a first-of-its-kind plastic waste sorting and processing facility that was developed through a joint venture between Cyclix, ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell.

The materials will ultimately be converted into recycling feedstock.

“We’re proud to break ground on a facility that reflects our long-term vision for sustainable growth,” Richard Heath, CEO and president of TALKE USA Inc., said in a news release. “This groundbreaking marks an important milestone for our team, our customers, and the Mont Belvieu community.”

The new facility was partially funded by Chambers County, according to the release. The Baytown Sun reports that the county put $1 million towards the construction of the project, which brings advanced recycling and mechanical recycling to the area.

TALKE USA said it plans to share more about the new facility and its impact in the future.

Meanwhile, the Houston-based Cyclyx Circularity Center (CCC1) is slated to open this year and is expected to produce 300 million pounds of custom-formulated feedstock annually. A second circularity center, CCC2, is expected to start up in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in the second half of 2026. Read more here.

8 Houston energy giants top global corporate startup index for 2025

Global Group

Eight major players in Houston’s energy industry rank among the world’s top 20 energy companies for corporate startup activity.

The inaugural Corporate Startup Activity Index 2025, published by StartupBlink, ranks global corporations by industry. The eight Houston-area employers fall into the index’s energy and environment category.

Researchers from StartupBlink, an innovation research platform, scored more than 370 companies based on three factors: corporate involvement in startup activity, startup success and ecosystem integration.

The eight Houston-area energy employers that landed in the energy and environment category’s top 20 are:

  • No. 3 BP. Score: 13.547. U.S. headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 5 Saudi Aramco. Score: 7.405. Americas headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 7 Eni. Score: 6.255. Headquarters of Eni U.S. Operating Co. in Houston.
  • No. 8 Shell. Score: 6.217. U.S. headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 11 Occidental Petroleum. Score: 5.347. Global headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 15 Engie. Score: 3.352. North American headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 17 Repsol. Score: 2.980. U.S. headquarters for oil and gas operations in The Woodlands.
  • No. 19 Chevron. Score: 2.017. Global headquarters in Houston.

“Building a startup is hard, and navigating corporate innovation can be just as complex. This ranking is a step toward making the connection between startups and corporations more transparent, enabling startups and corporations to collaborate more effectively for mutual success,” said Eli David Rokah, CEO of StartupBlink.

Salesforce topped the global index with a score of 380.090, followed by Intel, Google, Qualcomm, and Comcast.

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This article originally appeared on InnovationMap.com.

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