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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Lydian Energy has secured financing for three battery storage system projects in Texas. Photo via Getty Images.

D.C. energy company secures $233M for ERCOT battery storage projects

fresh funding

The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas’ grid will get a boost courtesy of Lydian Energy.

The D.C.-based company announced the successful financial close of its first institutional project financing totaling $233 million, backed by ING Group and KeyBank. The financing will support three battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in Texas.

Lydian is an independent power producer that specializes in the development, construction and operation of utility-scale solar and battery energy storage projects. The company reports that it plans to add 550 megawatts of energy—which can power approximately 412,500 homes—to the Texas grid administered by ERCOT.

“This financing marks an important step forward as we continue executing on our vision to scale transformative battery storage projects that meet the evolving energy needs of the communities we serve,” Emre Ersenkal, CEO at Lydian Energy, said in a news release.

The projects include:

Pintail

  • Located in San Patricio county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Crane

  • Located in Crane county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Headcamp

  • Located in Pecos county
  • 150 megawatts
  • Backed by KeyBank

ING served as the lender for Pintail and Crane projects valued at a combined total of approximately $139 million.

KeyBank provided a $94 million financing package for the Headcamp project. KeyBanc Capital Markets also structured the financing package for Headcamp.

The three projects are being developed under Excelsior Energy Capital’s Fund II. Lydian’s current portfolio comprises 20 solar and storage projects, totaling 4.7 gigawatts of capacity.

“Our support of Lydian’s portfolio reflects ING’s focus on identifying strategic funding opportunities that align with the accelerating demand for sustainable power,” Sven Wellock, managing director and head of energy–renewables and power at ING, said in the release. “Battery storage plays a central role in supporting grid resilience, and we’re pleased to back a platform with strong fundamentals and a clear execution path.”

The facilities are expected to be placed in service by Q4 2025. Lydian is also pursuing additional financing for further projects, which are expected to commence construction by the end of 2025.

“These financings represent more than capital – they reflect the strong demand for reliable energy infrastructure in high-growth U.S. markets,” Anne Marie Denman, co-founding partner at Excelsior Energy Capital and chair of the board at Lydian Energy, added in the news release. “We’re proud to stand behind Lydian’s talented team as they deliver on the promise of battery storage with bankable projects, proven partners, and disciplined execution. In the midst of a lot of noise, these financings are a reminder that capital flows where infrastructure is satisfying fundamental needs of our society – in this case, the need for reliable, sustainable, domestic, and affordable energy.”

Here are the top five stories on EnergyCapital for May 16-30. Photo via Getty Images

$135M battery facility breaks ground in Houston and more energy news to know

Hot Topics

Editor's note: We're looking back at the hottest EnergyCapitalHTX stories from the second half of May 2025. Our most-read stories from May 16-30 include large-scale battery storage developments, collaborations with major brands, and a scientific breakthrough.

$135 million Houston battery storage facility breaks ground

SMT Energy, CenterPoint and Irby Construction have broken ground on a 160-megawatt battery energy storage system in ERCOT's Houston zone. Photo via Getty Images

SMT Energy and CenterPoint Energy have partnered with utility infrastructure solutions provider Irby Construction Company to break ground on a 160 megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) located in the Houston zone of the ERCOT market.

“We are proud to be underway and deliver this grid-strengthening project to Houston,” Kevin Midei, SVP of engineering, procurement and construction, at SMT Energy, said. Continue reading.

Houston researchers make breakthrough on electricity-generating bacteria

A team of Rice researchers, including Caroline Ajo-Franklin and Biki Bapi Kundu, has uncovered how certain bacteria breathe by generating electricity. Photo by Jeff Fitlow/Rice University.

New research from Rice University that merges biology with electrochemistry has uncovered new findings on how some bacteria generate electricity.

Led by Caroline Ajo-Franklin, a Rice professor of biosciences and the director of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute, the team published its findings in the journal Cell in April. The report showed how some bacteria use compounds called naphthoquinones, rather than oxygen, to transfer electrons to external surfaces in a process known as extracellular respiration. In other words, the bacteria are exhale electricity as they breathe. Continue reading.

Ultra-fast EV charging bays coming to Waffle House locations in Texas and beyond

bp pulse plans to install a network of DC fast chargers at Waffle House locations in Texas, Georgia and Florida. Photo via Getty Images.

Scattered, smothered and ... charged? Starting next year, EV drivers can connect to ultra-fast charging stations at select Waffle House locations throughout Texas, courtesy of bp pulse.

The EV arm of British energy giant bp announced a strategic partnership with the all-day breakfast chain. The company aims to deploy a network of 400kW DC fast chargers and a mix of CCS and NACS connectors at Waffle House locations in Texas, Georgia, Florida, and other restaurants in the South. Continue reading.

Engie partners on major Texas, California battery storage portfolio

Engie and CBRE are partnering up. Photo via Getty Images

Houston’s Engie North America has partnered with New York-based CBRE Investment Management on a 2.4-gigawatt portfolio of battery storage assets in Texas and California.

The portfolio consists of 31 projects operating in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and California Independent System Operator (CAISO) territories. According to a company statement, the transaction represents one of Engie’s largest operating portfolio partnerships in the U.S. Continue reading.

Houston renewables developer and Google agree to second solar collaboration

Google will soon be able to pull from energyRe’s portfolio of more than 600 megawatts of new solar and solar storage projects in South Carolina. Photo via Pixabay

EnergyRe, a developer of large-scale renewable energy projects with headquarters in Houston and New York, has signed a renewable energy agreement that will allow Google to invest in and purchase renewable energy credits (RECs) from its projects under development in South Carolina.

Google will be able to pull from energyRe’s portfolio of more than 600 megawatts of new solar and solar storage projects in the state. Continue reading.

China-based Trina Storage is starting its U.S. expansion in Houston. Photo via trinasolar.com

Large-scale battery storage project slated for Houston and more energy news to know

Hot Topics

Editor's note: The top energy transition news for the first half of May 2025 includes two global energy projects with Houston ties. Plus, we look at Houston's new Climate Justice Plan. Get the details on EnergyCapitalHTX's most-read stories below.

1. China-based company to launch its largest U.S. energy storage project in Houston

China-based Trina Storage is starting its U.S. expansion in Houston. Photo via trinasolar.com

Trina Storage and FlexGen, a North Carolina-based company that develops integrated energy storage systems, are bringing a 371-megawatt battery energy storage system to Houston. The project will be the largest grid-scale deployment project in North America by Trina Storage, which is a business unit of China-based Trina Solar.

"This project is a testament to Trina Storage's ability to provide a fully bankable, integrated energy storage solution that meets the evolving needs of the market," Terry Chen, vice president of Trina Storage North America, said.

"As our first grid-scale deployment in North America, this achievement reflects the industry's confidence in our technology and our commitment to de-risking energy storage investments and supporting the energy transition in the region." Continue reading.

2. Houston climatech company signs on to massive carbon capture project in Malaysia

HYCO1 has signed an agreement to convert 1 million tons per year of raw CO2 into industrial-grade syngas at a new carbon capture project in Malaysia. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based CO2 utilization company HYCO1 has signed a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia LNG Sdn. Bhd., a subsidiary of Petronas, for a carbon capture project in Malaysia, which includes potential utilization and conversion of 1 million tons of carbon dioxide per year.

The project will be located in Bintulu in Sarawak, Malaysia, where Malaysia LNG is based, according to a news release. Malaysia LNG will supply HYCO1 with an initial 1 million tons per year of raw CO2 for 20 years starting no later than 2030. The CCU plant is expected to be completed by 2029.

"This is very exciting for all stakeholders, including HYCO1, MLNG, and Petronas, and will benefit all Malaysians," HYCO1 CEO Gregory Carr said. "We approached Petronas and MLNG in the hopes of helping them solve their decarbonization needs, and we feel honored to collaborate with MLNG to meet their Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.” Continue reading.

3. Oxy opens energy-focused innovation center in Midtown Houston

The Oxy Innovation Center is now open at the Ion in Houston, and a new coworking space launches this week. Photo courtesy of the Ion

Houston-based Occidental officially opened its new Oxy Innovation Center with a ribbon cutting at the Ion last month.

The opening reflects Oxy and the Ion's "shared commitment to advancing technology and accelerating a lower-carbon future," according to an announcement from the Ion.

Oxy, which was named a corporate partner of the Ion in 2023, now has nearly 6,500 square feet on the fourth floor of the Ion. Continue reading.

4. Harris County looks to future with new Climate Justice Plan

Harris County commissioners approved a plan that seeks to address issues of ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Photo via Getty Images.

Harris County commissioners approved a five-point Climate Justice Plan last month with a 3-1 vote by Harris County commissioners. The plan was created by the Office of County Administration’s Office of Sustainability and the nonprofit Coalition for Environment, Equity and Resilience.

“Climate action planning that centers on justice has the potential to spark innovative thinking and transformative actions that will lead to meaningful and just transitions in communities, policies, funding mechanisms, and implementation strategies,” the 59-page report reads.

The plan seeks to address issues relating to ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Continue reading.

5. Houston company completes orphan well decommission project in the Gulf

Promethean Energy had completed a significant decommissioning project in the Matagorda Island area. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based Promethean Energy announced this month that it has successfully decommissioned offshore orphaned wells in the Matagorda Island lease area.

Around this time last year, the company shared that it would work on the temporary abandonment of nine orphan wells on behalf of the Department of Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, or BSEE, in the area. Promethean is known for decommissioning mature assets in a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable manner.

“Our team is incredibly proud to have completed this critical work efficiently, safely, and ahead of budget,” Steve Louis, SVP of decommissioning at Promethean Energy, said. “By integrating our expertise, technologies and strategic partnerships, we have demonstrated that decommissioning can be both cost-effective and environmentally responsible.” Continue reading.

Rice's Atin Pramanik and a team in Pulickel Ajayan's lab shared new findings that offer a sustainable alternative to lithium batteries by enhancing sodium and potassium ion storage. Photo by Jeff Fitlow/Courtesy Rice University

Houston researchers make headway on developing low-cost sodium-ion batteries

energy storage

A new study by researchers from Rice University’s Department of Materials Science and NanoEngineering, Baylor University and the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Thiruvananthapuram has introduced a solution that could help develop more affordable and sustainable sodium-ion batteries.

The findings were recently published in the journal Advanced Functional Materials.

The team worked with tiny cone- and disc-shaped carbon materials from oil and gas industry byproducts with a pure graphitic structure. The forms allow for more efficient energy storage with larger sodium and potassium ions, which is a challenge for anodes in battery research. Sodium and potassium are more widely available and cheaper than lithium.

“For years, we’ve known that sodium and potassium are attractive alternatives to lithium,” Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Engineering at Rice, said in a news release. “But the challenge has always been finding carbon-based anode materials that can store these larger ions efficiently.”

Lithium-ion batteries traditionally rely on graphite as an anode material. However, traditional graphite structures cannot efficiently store sodium or potassium energy, since the atoms are too big and interactions become too complex to slide in and out of graphite’s layers. The cone and disc structures “offer curvature and spacing that welcome sodium and potassium ions without the need for chemical doping (the process of intentionally adding small amounts of specific atoms or molecules to change its properties) or other artificial modifications,” according to the study.

“This is one of the first clear demonstrations of sodium-ion intercalation in pure graphitic materials with such stability,” Atin Pramanik, first author of the study and a postdoctoral associate in Ajayan’s lab, said in the release. “It challenges the belief that pure graphite can’t work with sodium.”

In lab tests, the carbon cones and discs stored about 230 milliamp-hours of charge per gram (mAh/g) by using sodium ions. They still held 151 mAh/g even after 2,000 fast charging cycles. They also worked with potassium-ion batteries.

“We believe this discovery opens up a new design space for battery anodes,” Ajayan added in the release. “Instead of changing the chemistry, we’re changing the shape, and that’s proving to be just as interesting.”

Tesla is expected to bring a 'megafactory' to Brookshire.

Tesla targets Houston area for $200 million 'mega' battery factory

Tesla Town

Tesla is expected to bring a “megafactory” and 1,500 manufacturing jobs to the Houston area.

According to various news reports this week, Tesla intends to spend $200 million on a facility in Brookshire, Texas. The Waller County Commissioners Court approved tax abatements on March 5 for the new plant.

“We are super excited about this opportunity—1,500 advanced manufacturing jobs in the county and in the city," Waller County Precinct 4 Commissioner Justin Beckendorff said during Wednesday’s Commissioners Court meeting.

Tesla will lease two buildings in Brookshire's Empire West Business Park. According to documents from Waller County, Tesla will add $44 million in facility improvements. In addition, it will install $150 million worth of manufacturing equipment.

As part of the deal, Tesla will invest in property improvements that involve a 600,000-square-foot, $31 million manufacturing facility that will house $2 million worth of equipment and include improvements to the venue.

The facility will produce Tesla megapacks, which are powerful batteries to provide energy storage and support, according to the company. A megapack can store enough energy to power about 3,600 homes for one hour.

Tesla can receive a 60 percent tax abatement for 10 years. According to the tax abatement agreement, Tesla has to employ at least 1,500 people by 2028 in order to be eligible for the tax break.

In addition to the employment clause, Tesla also will be required to have a minimum of $75 million in taxable inventory by January 1, 2026, which will increase to $300 million after three years.

---

This story originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

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UH launches new series on AI’s impact on the energy sector

where to be

The University of Houston's Energy Transition Institute has launched a new Energy in Action Seminar Series that will feature talks focused on the intersection of the energy industry and digitization trends, such as AI.

The first event in the series took place earlier this month, featuring Raiford Smith, global market lead for power & energy for Google Cloud, who presented "AI, Energy, and Data Centers." The talk discussed the benefits of widespread AI adoption for growth in traditional and low-carbon energy resources.

Future events include:

“Through this timely and informative seminar series, ETI will bring together energy professionals, researchers, students, and anyone working in or around digital innovation in energy," Debalina Sengupta, chief operating officer of ETI, said in a news release. "We encourage industry members and students to register now and reap the benefits of participating in both the seminar and the reception, which presents a fantastic opportunity to stay ahead of industry developments and build a strong network in the Greater Houston energy ecosystem.”

The series is slated to continue throughout 2026. Each presentation is followed by a one-hour networking reception. Register for the next event here.

ExxonMobil pauses plans for $7B hydrogen plant in Baytown

project on pause

As anticipated, Spring-based oil and gas giant ExxonMobil has paused plans to build a low-hydrogen plant in Baytown, Chairman and CEO Darren Woods told Reuters.

“The suspension of the project, which had already experienced delays, reflects a wider slowdown in efforts by traditional oil and gas firms to transition to cleaner energy sources as many of the initiatives struggle to turn a profit,” Reuters reported.

Woods signaled during ExxonMobil’s second-quarter earnings call that the company was weighing whether it would move forward with the proposed $7 billion plant.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act established a 10-year incentive, the 45V tax credit, for production of clean hydrogen. But under President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the period for beginning construction of low-carbon hydrogen projects that qualify for the tax credit has been compressed. The Inflation Reduction Act called for construction to begin by 2033. The Big Beautiful Bill changed the construction start time to early 2028.

“While our project can meet this timeline, we’re concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives,” Woods said during the earnings call.

Woods had said ExxonMobil was figuring out whether a combination of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects and the revised 45V tax credit would enable a broader market for low-carbon hydrogen.

“If we can’t see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won’t move forward with the [Baytown] project,” Woods told Wall Street analysts.

“We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line,” he added.

ExxonMobil announced in 2022 that it would build the low-carbon hydrogen plant at its refining and petrochemical complex in Baytown. The company had indicated the plant would start initial production in 2027.

ExxonMobil had said the Baytown plant would produce up to 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day made from natural gas, and capture and store more than 98 percent of the associated carbon dioxide. The plant would have been capable of storing as much as 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

Greentown and partners name 10 startups to carbontech accelerator

new cohort

The Carbon to Value Initiative (C2V Initiative)—a collaboration between Greentown Labs, NYU Tandon School of Engineering's Urban Future Lab and Fraunhofer USA—has announced 10 startup participants to join the fifth cohort of its carbontech accelerator.

The six-month accelerator aims to help cleantech startups advance their commercialization efforts through access to the C2V Initiative’s Carbontech Leadership Council (CLC). The invitation-only council consists of corporate and nonprofit leaders from organizations like Shell, TotalEnergies, XPRIZE, L’Oréal and others who “foster commercialization opportunities and identify avenues for technology validation, testing, and demonstration,” according to a release from Greentown

“The No. 1 reason startups engage with Greentown is to find customers, grow their businesses, and accelerate impact—and the Carbon to Value Initiative delivers exactly that,” Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown, said in a news release. “It’s a powerful example of how meaningful engagement between entrepreneurs and industry turns innovation into commercial traction.”

The C2V Initiative received more than 100 applications from 33 countries, representing a variety of carbontech innovations. The 10 startups chosen for the 2025 fifth cohort include:

  • Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Sora Fuel, which integrates direct-air capture with direct conversion of the captured carbon into syngas for production of sustainable aviation fuel
  • Brooklyn-based Arbon, which develops a humidity-swing carbon-capture solution by capturing CO₂ from the air or point-source without heat or pressure
  • New York-based Cella Mineral Storage, which works to develop subsurface mineralization technology with integrated software, enabling new ways to sequester CO2 underground
  • Germany-based ICODOS, which helps transform emissions into value through a point-source carbon capture and methanol synthesis process in a single, modularized system
  • Vancouver-based Lite-1, which uses advanced biomanufacturing processes to produce circular colourants for use in textiles, cosmetics and food
  • London-based Mission Zero Technologies, which has developed and deployed an electrified, direct-air carbon capture solution that employs both liquid-adsorption and electrochemical technologies
  • Kenya-based Octavia Carbon, which develops a solid-adsorption-based, direct-air carbon capture solution that utilizes geothermal heat
  • California-based Rushnu, which combines point-source carbon capture with chemical production, turning salt and CO2 into chlorine-based chemicals and minerals
  • Brooklyn-based Turnover Labs, which develops modular electrolyzers that transform raw, industrial CO2 emissions into chemical building blocks, without capture or purification
  • Ontario-based Universal Matter, which develops a Flash Joule Heating process that converts carbon waste such as end-of-life plastics, tires or industrial waste into graphene

The C2V Initiative is based on Greentown Go, Greentown’s open-innovation program. The C2V Initiative has supported 35 startups that have raised over $600 million in follow-on funding.

Read about the 2024 cohort here.
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