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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Lydian Energy has secured financing for three battery storage system projects in Texas. Photo via Getty Images.

D.C. energy company secures $233M for ERCOT battery storage projects

fresh funding

The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas’ grid will get a boost courtesy of Lydian Energy.

The D.C.-based company announced the successful financial close of its first institutional project financing totaling $233 million, backed by ING Group and KeyBank. The financing will support three battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in Texas.

Lydian is an independent power producer that specializes in the development, construction and operation of utility-scale solar and battery energy storage projects. The company reports that it plans to add 550 megawatts of energy—which can power approximately 412,500 homes—to the Texas grid administered by ERCOT.

“This financing marks an important step forward as we continue executing on our vision to scale transformative battery storage projects that meet the evolving energy needs of the communities we serve,” Emre Ersenkal, CEO at Lydian Energy, said in a news release.

The projects include:

Pintail

  • Located in San Patricio county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Crane

  • Located in Crane county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Headcamp

  • Located in Pecos county
  • 150 megawatts
  • Backed by KeyBank

ING served as the lender for Pintail and Crane projects valued at a combined total of approximately $139 million.

KeyBank provided a $94 million financing package for the Headcamp project. KeyBanc Capital Markets also structured the financing package for Headcamp.

The three projects are being developed under Excelsior Energy Capital’s Fund II. Lydian’s current portfolio comprises 20 solar and storage projects, totaling 4.7 gigawatts of capacity.

“Our support of Lydian’s portfolio reflects ING’s focus on identifying strategic funding opportunities that align with the accelerating demand for sustainable power,” Sven Wellock, managing director and head of energy–renewables and power at ING, said in the release. “Battery storage plays a central role in supporting grid resilience, and we’re pleased to back a platform with strong fundamentals and a clear execution path.”

The facilities are expected to be placed in service by Q4 2025. Lydian is also pursuing additional financing for further projects, which are expected to commence construction by the end of 2025.

“These financings represent more than capital – they reflect the strong demand for reliable energy infrastructure in high-growth U.S. markets,” Anne Marie Denman, co-founding partner at Excelsior Energy Capital and chair of the board at Lydian Energy, added in the news release. “We’re proud to stand behind Lydian’s talented team as they deliver on the promise of battery storage with bankable projects, proven partners, and disciplined execution. In the midst of a lot of noise, these financings are a reminder that capital flows where infrastructure is satisfying fundamental needs of our society – in this case, the need for reliable, sustainable, domestic, and affordable energy.”

Here are the top five stories on EnergyCapital for May 16-30. Photo via Getty Images

$135M battery facility breaks ground in Houston and more energy news to know

Hot Topics

Editor's note: We're looking back at the hottest EnergyCapitalHTX stories from the second half of May 2025. Our most-read stories from May 16-30 include large-scale battery storage developments, collaborations with major brands, and a scientific breakthrough.

$135 million Houston battery storage facility breaks ground

SMT Energy, CenterPoint and Irby Construction have broken ground on a 160-megawatt battery energy storage system in ERCOT's Houston zone. Photo via Getty Images

SMT Energy and CenterPoint Energy have partnered with utility infrastructure solutions provider Irby Construction Company to break ground on a 160 megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) located in the Houston zone of the ERCOT market.

“We are proud to be underway and deliver this grid-strengthening project to Houston,” Kevin Midei, SVP of engineering, procurement and construction, at SMT Energy, said. Continue reading.

Houston researchers make breakthrough on electricity-generating bacteria

A team of Rice researchers, including Caroline Ajo-Franklin and Biki Bapi Kundu, has uncovered how certain bacteria breathe by generating electricity. Photo by Jeff Fitlow/Rice University.

New research from Rice University that merges biology with electrochemistry has uncovered new findings on how some bacteria generate electricity.

Led by Caroline Ajo-Franklin, a Rice professor of biosciences and the director of the Rice Synthetic Biology Institute, the team published its findings in the journal Cell in April. The report showed how some bacteria use compounds called naphthoquinones, rather than oxygen, to transfer electrons to external surfaces in a process known as extracellular respiration. In other words, the bacteria are exhale electricity as they breathe. Continue reading.

Ultra-fast EV charging bays coming to Waffle House locations in Texas and beyond

bp pulse plans to install a network of DC fast chargers at Waffle House locations in Texas, Georgia and Florida. Photo via Getty Images.

Scattered, smothered and ... charged? Starting next year, EV drivers can connect to ultra-fast charging stations at select Waffle House locations throughout Texas, courtesy of bp pulse.

The EV arm of British energy giant bp announced a strategic partnership with the all-day breakfast chain. The company aims to deploy a network of 400kW DC fast chargers and a mix of CCS and NACS connectors at Waffle House locations in Texas, Georgia, Florida, and other restaurants in the South. Continue reading.

Engie partners on major Texas, California battery storage portfolio

Engie and CBRE are partnering up. Photo via Getty Images

Houston’s Engie North America has partnered with New York-based CBRE Investment Management on a 2.4-gigawatt portfolio of battery storage assets in Texas and California.

The portfolio consists of 31 projects operating in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and California Independent System Operator (CAISO) territories. According to a company statement, the transaction represents one of Engie’s largest operating portfolio partnerships in the U.S. Continue reading.

Houston renewables developer and Google agree to second solar collaboration

Google will soon be able to pull from energyRe’s portfolio of more than 600 megawatts of new solar and solar storage projects in South Carolina. Photo via Pixabay

EnergyRe, a developer of large-scale renewable energy projects with headquarters in Houston and New York, has signed a renewable energy agreement that will allow Google to invest in and purchase renewable energy credits (RECs) from its projects under development in South Carolina.

Google will be able to pull from energyRe’s portfolio of more than 600 megawatts of new solar and solar storage projects in the state. Continue reading.

China-based Trina Storage is starting its U.S. expansion in Houston. Photo via trinasolar.com

Large-scale battery storage project slated for Houston and more energy news to know

Hot Topics

Editor's note: The top energy transition news for the first half of May 2025 includes two global energy projects with Houston ties. Plus, we look at Houston's new Climate Justice Plan. Get the details on EnergyCapitalHTX's most-read stories below.

1. China-based company to launch its largest U.S. energy storage project in Houston

China-based Trina Storage is starting its U.S. expansion in Houston. Photo via trinasolar.com

Trina Storage and FlexGen, a North Carolina-based company that develops integrated energy storage systems, are bringing a 371-megawatt battery energy storage system to Houston. The project will be the largest grid-scale deployment project in North America by Trina Storage, which is a business unit of China-based Trina Solar.

"This project is a testament to Trina Storage's ability to provide a fully bankable, integrated energy storage solution that meets the evolving needs of the market," Terry Chen, vice president of Trina Storage North America, said.

"As our first grid-scale deployment in North America, this achievement reflects the industry's confidence in our technology and our commitment to de-risking energy storage investments and supporting the energy transition in the region." Continue reading.

2. Houston climatech company signs on to massive carbon capture project in Malaysia

HYCO1 has signed an agreement to convert 1 million tons per year of raw CO2 into industrial-grade syngas at a new carbon capture project in Malaysia. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based CO2 utilization company HYCO1 has signed a memorandum of understanding with Malaysia LNG Sdn. Bhd., a subsidiary of Petronas, for a carbon capture project in Malaysia, which includes potential utilization and conversion of 1 million tons of carbon dioxide per year.

The project will be located in Bintulu in Sarawak, Malaysia, where Malaysia LNG is based, according to a news release. Malaysia LNG will supply HYCO1 with an initial 1 million tons per year of raw CO2 for 20 years starting no later than 2030. The CCU plant is expected to be completed by 2029.

"This is very exciting for all stakeholders, including HYCO1, MLNG, and Petronas, and will benefit all Malaysians," HYCO1 CEO Gregory Carr said. "We approached Petronas and MLNG in the hopes of helping them solve their decarbonization needs, and we feel honored to collaborate with MLNG to meet their Net Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050.” Continue reading.

3. Oxy opens energy-focused innovation center in Midtown Houston

The Oxy Innovation Center is now open at the Ion in Houston, and a new coworking space launches this week. Photo courtesy of the Ion

Houston-based Occidental officially opened its new Oxy Innovation Center with a ribbon cutting at the Ion last month.

The opening reflects Oxy and the Ion's "shared commitment to advancing technology and accelerating a lower-carbon future," according to an announcement from the Ion.

Oxy, which was named a corporate partner of the Ion in 2023, now has nearly 6,500 square feet on the fourth floor of the Ion. Continue reading.

4. Harris County looks to future with new Climate Justice Plan

Harris County commissioners approved a plan that seeks to address issues of ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Photo via Getty Images.

Harris County commissioners approved a five-point Climate Justice Plan last month with a 3-1 vote by Harris County commissioners. The plan was created by the Office of County Administration’s Office of Sustainability and the nonprofit Coalition for Environment, Equity and Resilience.

“Climate action planning that centers on justice has the potential to spark innovative thinking and transformative actions that will lead to meaningful and just transitions in communities, policies, funding mechanisms, and implementation strategies,” the 59-page report reads.

The plan seeks to address issues relating to ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Continue reading.

5. Houston company completes orphan well decommission project in the Gulf

Promethean Energy had completed a significant decommissioning project in the Matagorda Island area. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-based Promethean Energy announced this month that it has successfully decommissioned offshore orphaned wells in the Matagorda Island lease area.

Around this time last year, the company shared that it would work on the temporary abandonment of nine orphan wells on behalf of the Department of Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, or BSEE, in the area. Promethean is known for decommissioning mature assets in a cost-effective and environmentally sustainable manner.

“Our team is incredibly proud to have completed this critical work efficiently, safely, and ahead of budget,” Steve Louis, SVP of decommissioning at Promethean Energy, said. “By integrating our expertise, technologies and strategic partnerships, we have demonstrated that decommissioning can be both cost-effective and environmentally responsible.” Continue reading.

Rice's Atin Pramanik and a team in Pulickel Ajayan's lab shared new findings that offer a sustainable alternative to lithium batteries by enhancing sodium and potassium ion storage. Photo by Jeff Fitlow/Courtesy Rice University

Houston researchers make headway on developing low-cost sodium-ion batteries

energy storage

A new study by researchers from Rice University’s Department of Materials Science and NanoEngineering, Baylor University and the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Thiruvananthapuram has introduced a solution that could help develop more affordable and sustainable sodium-ion batteries.

The findings were recently published in the journal Advanced Functional Materials.

The team worked with tiny cone- and disc-shaped carbon materials from oil and gas industry byproducts with a pure graphitic structure. The forms allow for more efficient energy storage with larger sodium and potassium ions, which is a challenge for anodes in battery research. Sodium and potassium are more widely available and cheaper than lithium.

“For years, we’ve known that sodium and potassium are attractive alternatives to lithium,” Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Engineering at Rice, said in a news release. “But the challenge has always been finding carbon-based anode materials that can store these larger ions efficiently.”

Lithium-ion batteries traditionally rely on graphite as an anode material. However, traditional graphite structures cannot efficiently store sodium or potassium energy, since the atoms are too big and interactions become too complex to slide in and out of graphite’s layers. The cone and disc structures “offer curvature and spacing that welcome sodium and potassium ions without the need for chemical doping (the process of intentionally adding small amounts of specific atoms or molecules to change its properties) or other artificial modifications,” according to the study.

“This is one of the first clear demonstrations of sodium-ion intercalation in pure graphitic materials with such stability,” Atin Pramanik, first author of the study and a postdoctoral associate in Ajayan’s lab, said in the release. “It challenges the belief that pure graphite can’t work with sodium.”

In lab tests, the carbon cones and discs stored about 230 milliamp-hours of charge per gram (mAh/g) by using sodium ions. They still held 151 mAh/g even after 2,000 fast charging cycles. They also worked with potassium-ion batteries.

“We believe this discovery opens up a new design space for battery anodes,” Ajayan added in the release. “Instead of changing the chemistry, we’re changing the shape, and that’s proving to be just as interesting.”

Tesla is expected to bring a 'megafactory' to Brookshire.

Tesla targets Houston area for $200 million 'mega' battery factory

Tesla Town

Tesla is expected to bring a “megafactory” and 1,500 manufacturing jobs to the Houston area.

According to various news reports this week, Tesla intends to spend $200 million on a facility in Brookshire, Texas. The Waller County Commissioners Court approved tax abatements on March 5 for the new plant.

“We are super excited about this opportunity—1,500 advanced manufacturing jobs in the county and in the city," Waller County Precinct 4 Commissioner Justin Beckendorff said during Wednesday’s Commissioners Court meeting.

Tesla will lease two buildings in Brookshire's Empire West Business Park. According to documents from Waller County, Tesla will add $44 million in facility improvements. In addition, it will install $150 million worth of manufacturing equipment.

As part of the deal, Tesla will invest in property improvements that involve a 600,000-square-foot, $31 million manufacturing facility that will house $2 million worth of equipment and include improvements to the venue.

The facility will produce Tesla megapacks, which are powerful batteries to provide energy storage and support, according to the company. A megapack can store enough energy to power about 3,600 homes for one hour.

Tesla can receive a 60 percent tax abatement for 10 years. According to the tax abatement agreement, Tesla has to employ at least 1,500 people by 2028 in order to be eligible for the tax break.

In addition to the employment clause, Tesla also will be required to have a minimum of $75 million in taxable inventory by January 1, 2026, which will increase to $300 million after three years.

---

This story originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

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UH lands $1.5M for endowed professorship and energy workforce initiative

funding the future

The University of Houston announced two major funding awards last month focused on energy transition initiatives and leadership.

Longtime UH supporters Peggy and Chris Seaver made a $1 million gift to the university to establish the Peggy and Chris Seaver Endowed Aspire Professorship, a faculty position “designed to strengthen UH Energy and expand the university’s leadership in addressing the most pressing global energy challenges,” according to a news release.

The new role is the third professorship appointed to UH Energy. The professorship can qualify for a dollar-for-dollar match through the Aspire Fund Challenge, a $50 million matching initiative launched by an anonymous donor.

“This gift will be key to cementing UH’s role as The Energy University,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, said in the release. “By recruiting a highly respected faculty member with international experience, we are further elevating UH Energy’s global profile while deepening our impact here in the energy capital of the world.”

Also in January, the university shared that it would be joining the Urban Enrichment Institute (UEI) and the City of Houston to help train the next generation of energy workers, thanks to a $560,000 grant.

The Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine awarded the funding to the UEI, a nonprofit that supports at-risk youth. It will allow the UEI to work with UH’s Energy Transition Institute and the Houston Health Department to launch “Spark Energy Futures: Equipping Youth and Communities for the Energy Transition.”

The new initiative is designed for Houstonians ages 16-25 and will provide hands-on experience, four months of STEM-based training, and industry-aligned certifications without a four-year degree. Participants can also earn credentials and job placement support.

“Our energy systems are going through unprecedented changes to address the growing energy demands in the United States, Gulf Coast and Texas,” Debalina Sengupta, assistant vice president and Chief Operating Officer of ETI at UH, said in a news release.“To meet growing demands, the energy supply, transmission, distribution and markets associated with an ever-increasing energy mix needs a workforce skilled in multidimensional aspects of energy, as well as the flexibility to switch as needed to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to our population.”

Keith Cornelius, executive director of UEI, added that he expects about 50 students to participate in the program’s inaugural year and that the program is looking to attract those interested in entering the energy workforce without a college degree.

“We’re looking to have tremendous success with the Energy Transition Institute,” Cornelius said. “This program is a testament to what can be done between a community-based organization, a major university and the city.”

The award was part of a $2.7 million grant that will fund four projects in the Gulf region, including two others in Texas. The Gulf Research Program Awards also granted $748,175 to launch the “Building the South Texas Energy Workforce” initiative in in Kingsville, Texas and $728,000 for “Texas Green Careers Academy: Activating a New Generation of Energy Professionals” in Austin.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Spring-based private equity firm acquires West Texas wind farm

power deal

Spring-based private equity firm Arroyo Investors has teamed up with ONCEnergy, a Portland, Oregon-based developer of clean energy projects, to buy a 60-megawatt wind farm southeast of Amarillo.

Skyline Renewables, which acquired the site, known as the Whirlwind Energy Center, in 2018, was the seller. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed.

Whirlwind Energy Center, located in Floyd County, West Texas, comprises 26 utility-scale wind turbines. The wind farm, built in 2007, supplies power to Austin Energy.

“The acquisition reflects our focus on value-driven investments with strong counterparties, a solid operating track record, and clear relevance to markets with growing capacity needs,” Brandon Wax, a partner at Arroyo, said in a press release. “Partnering with ONCEnergy allows us to leverage deep operational expertise while expanding our investment footprint in the market.”

Arroyo focuses on energy infrastructure investments in the Americas. Its portfolio includes Spring-based Seaside LNG, which produces liquefied natural gas and LNG transportation services.

Last year, Arroyo closed an investment fund with more than $1 billion in total equity commitments.

Since its launch in 2003, Arroyo has “remained committed to investing in high-quality assets, creating value and positioning assets for exit within our expected hold period,” founding partner Chuck Jordan said in 2022.

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