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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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The CERAWeek by S&P Global 2025 programming will focus on energy policy and the reshaping energy landscape. Photo courtesy of CERAWeek

CERAWeek 2025 returns to Houston featuring U.S. energy policy leaders

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CERAWeek by S&P Global will bring together energy leaders from around the world for its 43rd annual conference next week, March 10–14, at the Hilton Americas Houston.

U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum will headline the conference with plenary addresses focused on strengthening global energy security.

Wright’s company, Liberty Energy, is also an investor in Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy. Burgum also chairs the newly formed White House National Energy Dominance Council and was previously the governor of North Dakota.

"We are very pleased to welcome Secretary Wright to CERAWeek as he leads the Department of Energy and guides U.S. energy policy with the tremendous array of responsibilities that affect American national and energy security," Daniel Yergin, conference chair and Vice Chairman of S&P Global said in a news release. "His insights on the future of U.S. energy policy will be an important and timely contribution to critical dialogues at this year's conference about the technological, market and geopolitical factors that are shaping the global energy landscape."

Yergin added in a separate release: "As the cabinet secretary responsible for federal lands and resources and chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council, (Burgum’s) views on U.S. energy policy and security have tremendous impact. Moreover, he brings in-depth experience of having been governor of a major energy-producing state. His participation will be a timely and important addition to the critical dialogues taking place at this year's conference."

This year, CERAWeek will zero in on the theme “Moving Ahead: Energy strategies for a complex world,” and will consider how changes in policy, technology and geopolitics are reshaping the energy landscape.

Some of the speakers include:

  • Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp.
  • Laurence D. Fink, founder, chairman and CEO of BlackRock
  • Murray Auchincloss, CEO of bp plc
  • Vicki Hollub, president and CEO of Oxy
  • Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips
  • Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell
  • Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes
  • John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation
  • Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines
  • And many others

CERAWeek's key themes this year tackle power, grid and electrification, renewables and low-carbon fuels, the capital transition, innovation technology, climate and sustainability and others topics.

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation will feature thought leadership "transformational technology platforms in energy and adjacent industries ranging across AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation, and more," according to the release.

The "Agora Hubs" will return and will focus on climate, carbon and new energies.

The 2024 CERAWeek addressed topics like funding the energy transition, geothermal energy, AI and more. Registration for 2025 is available now.

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7 must-attend Houston energy transition events in August 2025

Must-Attend Meetings

Editor's note: It's time to mark your calendars for the top Houston energy events this month. From globally-focused forums to intimate conversations with Houston energy leaders, these events are not to be missed, so begin registering today. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional event listings.

August 6-7 — U.S.-Africa Energy Forum

The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum (USAEF) connects the U.S. market with Africa’s vast energy sector opportunities. The forum empowers participants to uncover emerging opportunities in Africa’s energy sector, positioning licensing rounds and projects as prime conduits for U.S. investment. By bringing together investors, governments, and project developers, the forum fosters meaningful partnerships, expands investor networks, and paves the way for impactful collaborations across the energy value chain.

This event begins August 6 at the Post Oak Hotel. Click here to register.

August 21 — Transition on Tap

Greentown Labs’ signature networking event returns in August to foster conversations and connections within Houston's climate and energy transition ecosystem. Entrepreneurs, investors, students, philanthropists, and more are invited to attend, meet colleagues, discuss solutions, and engage with the growing community.

This event takes place Thursday, August 21 at 5:30 pm at Greentown Labs. Click here to register.

August 22 – Determined to Lead Women Lunch: Investing Through Market Cycles with Ellen Wilkirson

EnergyTech Nexus hosts a monthly Determined to Lead Women’s Lunch as part of its ongoing efforts to create safe spaces for women leaders in the energy transition to connect, learn, and lead. The August session features Ellen Wilkirson, principal at Rev Innovations. With deep experience across traditional and transition energy sectors, Wilkirson will share how she’s approached investing through multiple market and commodity cycles and what it means to be a clean energy investor in today’s evolving landscape.

This event takes place Friday, August 22 at 1 pm. Click here to register.

August 25-28 — IMAGE 2025

Join the world's premier gathering for geoscientists, energy professionals, and industry leaders to connect, collaborate, and innovate. IMAGE 2025 will feature 1,100 presentations and 260 exhibitors. It will connect more than 7,800 energy leaders from more than 90 countries. In addition to four days of programming, guests can attend pre-convention field trips on August 23-25 and post-convention workshops on August 29.

This event begins August 25 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Click here to register.

August 27 — Future of Flight: Inside Venus Aerospace with Founder Sassie Duggleby

Join EO Houston for an exclusive, behind-the-scenes conversation with Sassie Duggleby, co-founder and CEO of Venus Aerospace, a Houston-based company pioneering breakthrough propulsion systems for hypersonic and space applications.

This event takes place Wednesday, August 27 at 10 am at Venus Aerospace. It is open to EO members and partners only. Click here to register.

August 27 — Work Wednesday Lunch AMA with Scott Craig

EnergyTech Nexus will host a Work Wednesday Lunch & Learn with special guest Scott Craig from Latham Watkins LLP. This recurring event is an opportunity for founders andc ommunity members to connect, network, and share ideas, with a focus on exploring the latest trend sin climate technology. Craig advises startups and investors across climate tech, energy transition, and frontier technology and has firsthand insight into structuring early-stage deals and navigating regulatory complexity.

This event takes place Wednesday, August 27 at 12 pm at One Memorial City Plaza. Click here to register.

August 27-28 — 6th Texas Energy Forum 2025

The 6th Texas Energy Forum will dive deep into the strategies, policies, and innovative solutions that reinforce energy security for the United States and its allies and fuel economic growth — centered on Texas’ pivotal role in the global energy landscape. Key discussions will address the future of regulatory reform, tariffs, and tax incentives; advancements in oil, gas, and LNG markets; the expansion of power generation; and breakthroughs in EVs and charging infrastructure. This year's topic is "Texas: The Energy Innovation Powerhouse."

This event begins Wednesday, August 27 at the Petroleum Club of Houston. Click here to register.

Japanese energy tech manufacturer officially relocates U.S. HQ to Houston

new to hou

TMEIC Corporation Americas has officially relocated its headquarters from Roanoke, Virginia, to Houston.

TMEIC Corporation Americas, a group company of Japan-based TMEIC Corporation Japan, recently inaugurated its new space in the Energy Corridor, according to a news release from TMEIC. The new HQ occupies the 10th floor at 1080 Eldridge Parkway, according to ConnectCRE. The company first announced the move last summer.

TMEIC Corporation Americas specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems. It employs approximately 500 people in the Houston area, and has plans to grow its workforce in the city in the coming year as part of its overall U.S. expansion.

"We are thrilled to be part of the vibrant Greater Houston community and look forward to expanding our business in North America's energy hub," Manmeet S. Bhatia, president and CEO of TMEIC Corporation Americas, said in the release.

The TMEIC group will maintain its office in Roanoke, which will focus on advanced automation systems, large AC motors and variable frequency drive systems for the industrial sector, according to the release.

TMEIC Corporation Americas also began operations at its new 144,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art facility in Brookshire, which is dedicated to manufacturing utility-scale PV inverters, earlier this year. The company also broke ground on its 267,000-square-foot manufacturing facility—its third in the U.S. and 13th globally—this spring, also in Waller County. It's scheduled for completion in May 2026.

"With the global momentum toward decarbonization, electrification, and domestic manufacturing resurgence, we are well-positioned for continued growth," Bhatia added in the release. "Together, we will continue to drive industry and uphold our legacy as a global leader in energy and industrial solutions."

Houston renewable fuel co. expands and more energy transition news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: The biggest energy transition news in recent weeks includes a major acquisition, big funding, a new biomaterial from Houston researchers, and more. Below are the five most-read stories from EnergyCaptialHTX from July 15-31, 2025:

1. Houston renewable fuel company expands reach with latest acquisition

Freedom CNG is growing. Photo courtesy Freedom CNG

Houston-based Freedom CNG, a provider and distributor of compressed renewable natural gas, has acquired ComTech Energy, a Canada-based provider of on-site mobile refueling for compressed renewable natural gas. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed. The acquisition allows Freedom CNG to adopt a hub-and-spoke operational model, allowing customers to move away from fixed fueling infrastructure with low-carbon energy solutions across North America. Continue reading.

2. Houston researchers develop strong biomaterial that could replace plastic

A team led by M.A.S.R. Saadi and Muhammad Maksud Rahman has developed a biomaterial that they hope could be used for the “next disposable water bottle." Photo courtesy Rice University.

Collaborators from two Houston universities are leading the way in engineering a biomaterial into a scalable, multifunctional material that could potentially replace plastic. The team introduced a biosynthesis technique that aligns bacterial cellulose fibers in real-time, which resulted in robust biopolymer sheets with “exceptional mechanical properties.” Continue reading.

3. Houston energy tech platform Molecule closes series B funding

Molecule has closed its latest investment round. Photo via Getty Images

Houston-based energy trading risk management (ETRM) software company Molecule has completed a successful series B round for an undisclosed amount. The raise was led by Sundance Growth, a California-based software growth equity firm, and Molecule founder Sameer Soleja said the funding will allow the company to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets." Continue reading.

4. 7 Houston energy-focused businesses among Time's best midsize companies 2025

null7 Houston energy-focused businesses among Time's best midsize companies 2025

CenterPoint is one of 13 Houston companies on Time's list. Photo via centerpoint.com

Seven Houston-based businesses focused on the energy industry appear on Time magazine and Statista’s new ranking of the country’s best midsize companies. Time and Statista ranked companies based on employee satisfaction, revenue growth, and transparency about sustainability. All 500 companies on the list have annual revenue from $100 million to $10 billion. Continue reading.

5. TEX-E names Houston VC leader as new executive director

TEX-E, a Houston-based energy transition nonprofit, has named Sandy Guitar as its executive director. Photo courtesy TEX-E.

The Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship (TEX-E) has named Houston venture capital and innovation leader Sandy Guitar as its new executive director. Guitar previously served as general partner and managing director at Houston-based VC firm HX Venture Fund and is co-founder of Weathergage Capital. She also sits on the advisory board of Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lilie) and launched the Women Investing in VC in Houston group. Continue reading.

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