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New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Thanks to a new partnership, Engie North America plans to add 'precycling' provisions to power purchase agreements on projects in the Midwest. Photo via Getting Images.

Engie to add 'precycling' agreements for forthcoming solar projects

reduce, reuse

Houston-based Engie North America has partnered with Arizona-based Solarcycle to recycle 1 million solar panels on forthcoming projects with a goal of achieving project circularity.

The collaboration allows Engie to incorporate "precycling" provisions into power purchase agreements made on 375 megawatts worth of projects in the Midwest, which are expected to be completed in the next few years, according to a news release from Engie.

Engie will use Solarcycle's advanced tracking capabilities to ensure that every panel on the selected projects is recycled once it reaches its end of life, and that the recovered materials are returned to the supply chain.

Additionally, all construction waste and system components for the selected projects will be recycled "to the maximum degree possible," according to Engie.

“We are delighted to bring this innovative approach to life. Our collaboration with Solarcycle demonstrates the shared commitment we have to the long-term sustainability of our industry,” Caroline Mead, SVP power marketing at ENGIE North America, said in the release.

Solarcyle, which repairs, refurbishes, reuses and recycles solar power systems, estimates that the collaboration and new provisions will help divert 48 million pounds of material from landfills and avoid 33,000 tons of carbon emissions.

“ENGIE’s precycling provision sets a new precedent for the utility-scale solar industry by proving that circular economy principles can be achieved without complex regulatory intervention and in a way that doesn’t require an up-front payment," Jesse Simons, co-founder and chief commercial officer at SOLARCYCLE, added in the release. "We’re happy to work creatively with leaders like ENGIE to support their commitment to circularity, domestic energy, and sustainability.”

Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Guest column: How growing energy demand will impact the Texas grid

Guest Column

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

PJ Popovic, founder and CEO of Houston-based Rhythm Energy, which has acquired Inspire Clean Energy. Photo courtesy of Rhythm

Houston's Rhythm Energy expands nationally with clean power acquisition

power deal

Houston-based Rhythm Energy Inc. has acquired Inspire Clean Energy for an undisclosed amount. The deal allows Rhythm to immediately scale outside of Texas and into the Northeast, Midwest and mid-Atlantic regions, according to a release from the company.

Inspire offers subscription-based renewable electricity plans to customers in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Ohio, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. By combining forces, Rhythm will now be one of the largest independent green-energy retailers in the country.

“Adding Inspire to the Rhythm family gives us the geographic reach to serve millions of new customers with the highly rated customer experience Texans already enjoy,” PJ Popovic, CEO of Rhythm, said in the release. “Together we become one of the largest independent green-energy retailers in the country and can roll out innovations like our PowerShift Time-of-Use plan and device-enabled demand-response programs that put customers fully in control of their energy costs.”

Rhythm was founded by Popovic in 2020 and offers 100 percent renewable energy plans using solar power, wind power and other renewable power sources.

In addition to scaling geographically, the acquisition will "(marry) Rhythm's data-driven technology with Inspire's successful subscription model." Rhythm also plans to upgrade its digital tools and provide more advanced services to help lower clean energy costs, according to the release.

Popovic spoke with EnergyCapital in 2023 about where he thinks renewables fit into Texas’s energy consumption. Read more here.

Harris County commissioners approved a plan that seeks to address issues of ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Photo via Getty Images.

Harris County looks to future with new Climate Justice Plan

progress plan

Harris County commissioners approved a five-point Climate Justice Plan last month with a 3-1 vote by Harris County commissioners. The plan was created by the Office of County Administration’s Office of Sustainability and the nonprofit Coalition for Environment, Equity and Resilience.

“Climate action planning that centers on justice has the potential to spark innovative thinking and transformative actions that will lead to meaningful and just transitions in communities, policies, funding mechanisms, and implementation strategies,” the 59-page report reads.

The plan seeks to address issues relating to ecology, infrastructure, economy, community and culture. Here’s a breakdown:

Ecology

The plan will work towards clean air, water, and soil efforts that support the health of the environment, renewable energy that reduces greenhouse gases and pollution, and conservation and protection of our natural resources. Some action items include:

  • Increasing resources for local government agencies
  • Developing a free native seed bank at all libraries
  • Identifying partners and funding streams to reduce the costs of solar power for area households
  • Producing renewable energy on large tracts of land
  • Expanding tree planting by 20 percent
  • Providing tree maintenance and restoration efforts
  • Incentivizing gray water systems and filtration to conserve fresh water

Economy

In terms of the economy, the Climate Justice Plan wants the basic needs of the community met and wants to also incentivize resilience, sustainability, and climate solutions, and recycling and reuse methods. Specific actions include:

  • Quantifying the rising costs associated with climate change
  • Expanding resources and partnering with organizations to support programs that provide food, utility, housing, and direct cash assistance
  • Supporting a coalition of area non-profit organizations and county offices to strengthen social service support infrastructure
  • Supporting home repair, solar installation, and weatherization programs
  • Identify methods to expand free and efficient recycling and composting services
  • Creating a climate tax levied on greenhouse gas emissions to develop a climate fund to offset the impacts of pollution

Infrastructure

As Houston has been prone to hurricanes and flooding damage, the infrastructure portion of the plan aims to protect the region from risks through preventative floodplain and watershed management. Highlights include:

  • Investing in generators and solar power, plus battery backup and bidirectional EV charging for all county libraries
  • Providing more heating and cooling centers with charging stations
  • Coordinating and deploying community microgrids, especially in neighborhoods prone to losing power
  • Seeking partnerships and funding for low- or no-cost water purifiers for areas with the highest needs
  • Protecting the electric grid through regular maintenance and upgrading, and advocating for greater accountability and responsiveness among appointed officials
  • Developing regulations to require resilient power line infrastructure to prevent outages and failures in new developments

Community and Culture

Housing, a strong economy and access to affordable and healthy food will be achieved under the community aspect of the plan. Under culture, the plan seeks to share knowledge and build trust. Key goals include:

  • Developing a campaign to promote the use of the Harris County 311 system to identify critical community concerns
  • Supporting the development of a Community Housing Plan that ensures stable and safe housing
  • Advocating for revisions to Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster funding to account for renters’ losses and unmet housing needs
  • Developing and funding a whole-home program for repairs, weatherization, and solar energy
  • Developing culturally relevant public relations campaigns to increase knowledge of health, environment and biodiversity across generations
Read the full plan here.
Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. File photo

New report shows Texas led nation in solar and battery growth in 2024

by the numbers

The winds of change in power generation are sweeping through Texas.

Texas outpaced all other states in various categories of power generation in 2024, according to a new report from Ember, an energy think tank. The report shows:

  • Texas contributed more (12 terawatt-hours) to the country’s 64 terawatt-hour rise in solar generation last year than any other state.
  • Texas installed more solar (7.4 gigawatts) and battery (3.9 gigawatt) capacity than any other state.
  • Texas installed more utility-scale battery capacity (3.9 gigawatts) than any other state.
  • Texas saw the second biggest increase (eight terawatt-hours) in natural gas generation in 2024. Only Virginia, at 10 terawatt-hours, ranked higher.
  • Texas ranked second among the states for the biggest drop in production of coal-fueled power (6.07 terawatt-hours), preceded only by Wyoming (6.3 terawatt-hours).

Overall, coal represented 14 percent of power generation in Texas last year, with the combination of wind and solar at 30 percent, according to the report. Across the U.S., says the report, wind and solar generated more electricity than coal for the first time. Coal generation made up just 15% of U.S. electricity generation in 2024.

“The shift away from coal has been primarily driven by market dynamics and availability of more cost-effective resources,” the report says. “The unit costs of wind and solar have reduced significantly and their quick installation makes them commercially attractive.”

Citing data like the figures published by Ember, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott champions Texas as the “Energy Capital of the World,” a title that Houston also claims.

“As Texas continues to experience unprecedented growth, we will remain a leader in energy while also bolstering the Texas grid to meet the growing demands of our great state,” Abbott said in 2024.

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Japanese energy tech manufacturer officially relocates U.S. HQ to Houston

new to hou

TMEIC Corporation Americas has officially relocated its headquarters from Roanoke, Virginia, to Houston.

TMEIC Corporation Americas, a group company of Japan-based TMEIC Corporation Japan, recently inaugurated its new space in the Energy Corridor, according to a news release from TMEIC. The new HQ occupies the 10th floor at 1080 Eldridge Parkway, according to ConnectCRE. The company first announced the move last summer.

TMEIC Corporation Americas specializes in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage systems. It employs approximately 500 people in the Houston area, and has plans to grow its workforce in the city in the coming year as part of its overall U.S. expansion.

"We are thrilled to be part of the vibrant Greater Houston community and look forward to expanding our business in North America's energy hub," Manmeet S. Bhatia, president and CEO of TMEIC Corporation Americas, said in the release.

The TMEIC group will maintain its office in Roanoke, which will focus on advanced automation systems, large AC motors and variable frequency drive systems for the industrial sector, according to the release.

TMEIC Corporation Americas also began operations at its new 144,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art facility in Brookshire, which is dedicated to manufacturing utility-scale PV inverters, earlier this year. The company also broke ground on its 267,000-square-foot manufacturing facility—its third in the U.S. and 13th globally—this spring, also in Waller County. It's scheduled for completion in May 2026.

"With the global momentum toward decarbonization, electrification, and domestic manufacturing resurgence, we are well-positioned for continued growth," Bhatia added in the release. "Together, we will continue to drive industry and uphold our legacy as a global leader in energy and industrial solutions."

Houston renewable fuel co. expands and more energy transition news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: The biggest energy transition news in recent weeks includes a major acquisition, big funding, a new biomaterial from Houston researchers, and more. Below are the five most-read stories from EnergyCaptialHTX from July 15-31, 2025:

1. Houston renewable fuel company expands reach with latest acquisition

Freedom CNG is growing. Photo courtesy Freedom CNG

Houston-based Freedom CNG, a provider and distributor of compressed renewable natural gas, has acquired ComTech Energy, a Canada-based provider of on-site mobile refueling for compressed renewable natural gas. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed. The acquisition allows Freedom CNG to adopt a hub-and-spoke operational model, allowing customers to move away from fixed fueling infrastructure with low-carbon energy solutions across North America. Continue reading.

2. Houston researchers develop strong biomaterial that could replace plastic

A team led by M.A.S.R. Saadi and Muhammad Maksud Rahman has developed a biomaterial that they hope could be used for the “next disposable water bottle." Photo courtesy Rice University.

Collaborators from two Houston universities are leading the way in engineering a biomaterial into a scalable, multifunctional material that could potentially replace plastic. The team introduced a biosynthesis technique that aligns bacterial cellulose fibers in real-time, which resulted in robust biopolymer sheets with “exceptional mechanical properties.” Continue reading.

3. Houston energy tech platform Molecule closes series B funding

Molecule has closed its latest investment round. Photo via Getty Images

Houston-based energy trading risk management (ETRM) software company Molecule has completed a successful series B round for an undisclosed amount. The raise was led by Sundance Growth, a California-based software growth equity firm, and Molecule founder Sameer Soleja said the funding will allow the company to "double down on product innovation, grow our team, and reach even more markets." Continue reading.

4. 7 Houston energy-focused businesses among Time's best midsize companies 2025

null7 Houston energy-focused businesses among Time's best midsize companies 2025

CenterPoint is one of 13 Houston companies on Time's list. Photo via centerpoint.com

Seven Houston-based businesses focused on the energy industry appear on Time magazine and Statista’s new ranking of the country’s best midsize companies. Time and Statista ranked companies based on employee satisfaction, revenue growth, and transparency about sustainability. All 500 companies on the list have annual revenue from $100 million to $10 billion. Continue reading.

5. TEX-E names Houston VC leader as new executive director

TEX-E, a Houston-based energy transition nonprofit, has named Sandy Guitar as its executive director. Photo courtesy TEX-E.

The Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship (TEX-E) has named Houston venture capital and innovation leader Sandy Guitar as its new executive director. Guitar previously served as general partner and managing director at Houston-based VC firm HX Venture Fund and is co-founder of Weathergage Capital. She also sits on the advisory board of Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lilie) and launched the Women Investing in VC in Houston group. Continue reading.

Texas among top states for EV charging access, report shows

by the numbers

A new study from FinanceBuzz reports that Texas has the fifth most public electric vehicle charging stations among states in the U.S.

In its Electric Vehicle (EV) Statistics [2025]: Trends in Sales, Savings, and More report, FinanceBuzz, a personal finance and investment adviser, compiled electric vehicle data to find sales trends, adoption rates, charging infrastructure, costs, savings and more.

Texas has a total of 3,709 public EV charging stations, which equals about 16 stations per 1,000 EVs, according to the report. The remaining top five included:

  • No. 1 California with 17,122 EV charging stations
  • No. 2 New York with 4,814 EV charging stations
  • No.3 Massachusetts with 3,738 EV charging stations
  • No. 4 Florida with 3,715 EV charging stations

Los Angeles had the most public charging stations at 1,609 among U.S. cities. Austin was Texas’s top city with 656 stations.

The study also looked at how much Americans are spending on transportation, and found that the average American using a gas vehicle spends $1,865 annually on fuel. FinanceBuzz found that electric vehicle owners would pay 65 percent less on energy costs. Calculations were based on driving 14,489 miles annually, which measures to 37.9 miles per day. The full report sourced data from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Department of Transportation, AAA, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other organizations.

The report said Americans purchased over 1.5 million EVs in 2024, which equals approximately 10 percent of all new light-duty vehicles sold, citing information from the International Council on Clean Transportation.

While Tesla remains the most popular make, 24 new EV models were launched in 2024 by other companies, which represents a 15 percent increase from the previous year.

Other trends in the report included:

  • The U.S. now has more than 64,000 public charging stations and over 168,000 charging ports, which is up from fewer than 1,000 stations in 2010.
  • An average EV owner will spend about $654 per year on electricity, compared to $1,865 for a gas-powered vehicle. The savings equate to about $1,211 per year.
  • In 2024, U.S. EV sales surpassed 1.5 million, but the pace slowed compared to the previous year, with a 10 percent increase versus 40 percent in 2023.
  • Insuring an EV can be more costly because parts are harder to come by, making repairs and replacements more expensive.
  • In the second quarter of 2024, nearly half of new EVs were leased, which is a 28 percentage point increase since 2021.
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