Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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Houston-based CAMS will operate and manage Project Goody, a solar and battery storage project that will provide power to Meta. Photo via Unsplash.

Houston company tapped to run renewables project with Meta power agreement

power deal

Houston-based Consolidated Asset Management Services (CAMS) has been selected to operate Plano-based Nexus Renewable Power's major renewables development, known as Project Goody.

CAMS will provide comprehensive asset management, operations, maintenance, regulatory compliance and remote operations services for the $220 million solar and battery storage project located in Lamar County, Texas, northeast of Dallas.

“The project underscores CAMS’ commitment to supporting dependable, grid-strengthening energy infrastructure across the United States,” Brian Ivany, EVP of CAMS Renewables, said in a news release. “Our team is proud to support Nexus and excited to apply our subject matter expertise and hands-on approach to ensure operational excellence and long-term success of the Goody project.”

Project Goody, or MRG Goody Solar and Storage, will feature a 172-megawatt solar facility paired with 237 megawatts of battery energy storage. The project will be connected to the ERCOT grid. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has signed on as the power offtaker for the project.

Nexus Renewable Power develops, finances and operates solar and energy storage assets. It currently operates projects generating 325 megawatts of solar and 350 megawatts of battery storage, with another 300 megawatts of solar and 1 gigawatt of battery storage projects under construction, according to its website. Project Goody is the first in a series of renewable developments underway, according to Nexus.

CAMS manages and operates energy infrastructure assets for its clients. Last year, it added InfraRed Capital Partners, which owns the 202-megawatt Mesteño Wind Project in the Rio Grande Valley, to its customer list. It also rolled out services to help deliver power to meet the growing demand from AI data centers.

San Antonio-based OCI Energy is developing Project SunRope outside of Houston. Photo via Pexels.com

Houston-area solar farm to move forward with $394M in construction financing

solar funding

Project SunRope, a 347-megawatt solar project outside of Houston, has landed $394 million in construction financing.

The project, located in Wharton County, about 60 miles outside of Houston, is slated to begin commercial operation in Q3 2027 and aims to support emission reductions, grid reliability and affordability in one of the highest electricity-demand regions in Texas and the U.S. It’s being developed through a joint venture between San Antonio-based OCI Energy and leading Israeli solar company Arava Power. New York-based ING Capital underwrote the financing package.

“The close of construction financing for Project SunRoper represents an important milestone for OCI Energy and our partners,” Sabah Bayatli, resident of OCI Energy, said in a news release. “This transaction reflects our continued commitment to deliver high-quality, utility-scale solar projects that strengthen grid reliability and provide affordable energy infrastructure.”

The construction financing is supported by a 20-year power purchase agreement with a Fortune 100 company, according to the release. Other collaborators include BHI and Bank of Hapoalim, which provided financing support and letters of credit to support the development of the project.

This is the second transaction between OCI Energy and ING, as they previously worked together on financing for the Alamo City Battery Energy Storage System, a 120-megawatt battery energy storage system under development in Bexar County.

“This project exemplifies the high‑quality renewable infrastructure we seek to finance – a strong sponsor partnership, a long‑term contracted revenue profile, and a well‑located asset in one of the most dynamic power markets in the United States,” Sven Wellock, managing director at ING, added in the release. “We are proud to build on our existing relationship with OCI Energy and to partner with Arava Power on its continued expansion in the U.S. market, advancing a project that will deliver reliable, affordable clean energy for years to come.”

OCI Energy operates several utility-scale solar and battery energy storage system projects outside of the San Antonio area, as well as in Georgia and New Jersey. It has five other projects under construction outside of San Antonio and Waco, with more than 20 under development throughout the state.

A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

Higher natural gas prices
Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
Extreme weather
Population growth
Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Musk has vowed to upend another industry. Photo via Getty Images

Elon Musk vows to put data centers in space and run them on solar power

Outer Space

Elon Musk vowed this week to upend another industry just as he did with cars and rockets — and once again he's taking on long odds.

The world's richest man said he wants to put as many as a million satellites into orbit to form vast, solar-powered data centers in space — a move to allow expanded use of artificial intelligence and chatbots without triggering blackouts and sending utility bills soaring.

To finance that effort, Musk combined SpaceX with his AI business on Monday, February 2, and plans a big initial public offering of the combined company.

“Space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale,” Musk wrote on SpaceX’s website, adding about his solar ambitions, “It’s always sunny in space!”

But scientists and industry experts say even Musk — who outsmarted Detroit to turn Tesla into the world’s most valuable automaker — faces formidable technical, financial and environmental obstacles.

Feeling the heat

Capturing the sun’s energy from space to run chatbots and other AI tools would ease pressure on power grids and cut demand for sprawling computing warehouses that are consuming farms and forests and vast amounts of water to cool.

But space presents its own set of problems.

Data centers generate enormous heat. Space seems to offer a solution because it is cold. But it is also a vacuum, trapping heat inside objects in the same way that a Thermos keeps coffee hot using double walls with no air between them.

“An uncooled computer chip in space would overheat and melt much faster than one on Earth,” said Josep Jornet, a computer and electrical engineering professor at Northeastern University.

One fix is to build giant radiator panels that glow in infrared light to push the heat “out into the dark void,” says Jornet, noting that the technology has worked on a small scale, including on the International Space Station. But for Musk's data centers, he says, it would require an array of “massive, fragile structures that have never been built before.”

Floating debris

Then there is space junk.

A single malfunctioning satellite breaking down or losing orbit could trigger a cascade of collisions, potentially disrupting emergency communications, weather forecasting and other services.

Musk noted in a recent regulatory filing that he has had only one “low-velocity debris generating event" in seven years running Starlink, his satellite communications network. Starlink has operated about 10,000 satellites — but that's a fraction of the million or so he now plans to put in space.

“We could reach a tipping point where the chance of collision is going to be too great," said University at Buffalo's John Crassidis, a former NASA engineer. “And these objects are going fast -- 17,500 miles per hour. There could be very violent collisions."

No repair crews

Even without collisions, satellites fail, chips degrade, parts break.

Special GPU graphics chips used by AI companies, for instance, can become damaged and need to be replaced.

“On Earth, what you would do is send someone down to the data center," said Baiju Bhatt, CEO of Aetherflux, a space-based solar energy company. "You replace the server, you replace the GPU, you’d do some surgery on that thing and you’d slide it back in.”

But no such repair crew exists in orbit, and those GPUs in space could get damaged due to their exposure to high-energy particles from the sun.

Bhatt says one workaround is to overprovision the satellite with extra chips to replace the ones that fail. But that’s an expensive proposition given they are likely to cost tens of thousands of dollars each, and current Starlink satellites only have a lifespan of about five years.

Competition — and leverage

Musk is not alone trying to solve these problems.

A company in Redmond, Washington, called Starcloud, launched a satellite in November carrying a single Nvidia-made AI computer chip to test out how it would fare in space. Google is exploring orbital data centers in a venture it calls Project Suncatcher. And Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin announced plans in January for a constellation of more than 5,000 satellites to start launching late next year, though its focus has been more on communications than AI.

Still, Musk has an edge: He's got rockets.

Starcloud had to use one of his Falcon rockets to put its chip in space last year. Aetherflux plans to send a set of chips it calls a Galactic Brain to space on a SpaceX rocket later this year. And Google may also need to turn to Musk to get its first two planned prototype satellites off the ground by early next year.

Pierre Lionnet, a research director at the trade association Eurospace, says Musk routinely charges rivals far more than he charges himself —- as much as $20,000 per kilo of payload versus $2,000 internally.

He said Musk’s announcements this week signal that he plans to use that advantage to win this new space race.

“When he says we are going to put these data centers in space, it’s a way of telling the others we will keep these low launch costs for myself,” said Lionnet. “It’s a kind of powerplay.”

A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”

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Houston investment firm closes $105M energy venture fund

seeing green

Houston-based investment firm Veriten has announced the initial close of its second flagship energy venture fund with more than $105 million in capital commitments.

Fund II will build on Veriten’s initial fund and aim to support “scalable technology solutions for energy, power and industrial applications,” according to a company news release.

"Our differentiated network, research-driven process, and first principles approach to investing are having an impact across multiple verticals including traditional energy, electrification, and industrial technology. Fund II builds on that platform,” John Sommers, partner, investments at Veriten, added in the release. “In this environment, the differentiator isn't capital – it's all about connectivity, deep sector expertise, and an economically-driven approach. As new technologies and approaches develop at breakneck speed, the need for more reliable, affordable energy and power continues to grow dramatically. The current backdrop accentuates the need for Veriten's solution."

Veriten is supported by over 50 strategic partnerships in the energy, power, industrial and technology sectors, including major players like Halliburton and Phillips 66.

"Veriten continues to build a differentiated platform at the intersection of energy, technology and industry expertise," Jeff Miller, chairman and CEO of Halliburton, said in the release. "We were early believers in the team and their ability to identify practical solutions to real challenges across the energy value chain. As all industries increasingly adopt digital tools, automation and AI-enabled technologies to improve performance and execution, we are proud to partner with Veriten again to help accelerate high-impact solutions across the broader energy landscape."

Veriten closed its debut fund, NexTen LP, of $85 million in committed capital in October 2023. It was launched in January 2022 by Maynard Holt, co-founder and former CEO of the energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

It has invested in Houston-based AI-powered electricity analytics provider Amperon and led a $12 million Seed 2 funding round for Houston-based Helix Technologies to scale manufacturing of its energy-efficient commercial HVAC add-on earlier this year. In the past year it has contributed to funding rounds for San Francisco-based Armada and Calgary-based Veerum.

Veriten also named Nick Morriss as its new managing director earlier this month. Morriss most recently served as vice president of business development at next-generation nuclear technology company Natura Resources and spent nearly 20 years at NOV Inc.

Houston energy expert asks: Who pays when AI outruns the power grid?

Guets Column

For most of the past 20 years, U.S. electricity policy relied on predictable trends in demand. Electricity use, in most regions, increased gradually, forecasts were stable, and utilities adjusted the system in small steps. Power plants, transmission lines, and substations were generally added to reflect shifts in load, rather than growth, and costs were recovered through modest adjustments to customer bills.

Growth in AI data centers has disrupted this model. A single facility can add as much electricity demand as a small town. That demand comes all at once, runs continuously, and has little tolerance for outages. If electricity service drops even briefly, computation stops, and services shut down. Ironically, data centers need reliable service, a point that their emergence is driving concern around for the rest of the grid.

What the numbers say

The International Energy Agency projects global electricity consumption from data centers to double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 TWh, nearly 3 percent of global electricity demand, with consumption growing about 15 percent per year this decade. McKinsey projects that U.S. data center demand alone could grow 20–25 percent per year, with global capacity demand more than tripling by 2030.

After years of roughly 0.5 percent annual demand growth, many forecasts now place total U.S. electricity demand growth closer to 2–3 percent per year through the mid-2030s, with much higher growth in specific regions. In Texas, some forecasters are saying electricity demand could double over the next five years, a staggering 10 percent per year growth rate. What sounds incremental on paper translates into a major challenge on the ground. Meeting this pace of growth is estimated to require $250–$300 billion per year in grid investment, about double what the system has been absorbing.

Where the system starts to strain

The strain appears first in the interconnection queue. It shows up as long waits, backlogs, and delays for connecting new loads and new generation.

Before new generators or large load customers can be connected, a study is required to assess their impact on the grid, whether it can physically handle the added load, and whether upgrades are required. With AI-driven data centers, utilities face far more connection requests than they can realistically support. In ERCOT, large-load interconnection requests exceed 200 gigawatts, most tied to data centers. That amount exceeds historical norms, and it is several times larger than what can be practically studied or built in the near term.

To be clear, public utility commissions are required to study these requests because they must manage system capabilities to ensure minimal disruption. This means engineers spend time evaluating projects that may never be built, while other more commercially viable projects may wait longer for approvals. This extends timelines and makes infrastructure planning less reliable.

Why policymakers are rethinking the rules

Utilities and their regulators must decide how much generation, transmission, and substation capacity to build years before it comes online. Those decisions are based on expected demand at the time projects are approved. When it comes to data centers, by the time infrastructure is completed, they may end up deploying newer, more efficient chips that use less power than originally assumed. This can result in grid infrastructure built for a higher load than what actually materializes, leaving excess capacity that still must be paid for through system-wide rates.

That’s the central dilemma. If utilities build too little capacity, the system operates with less reserve margin. During periods of grid stress, operators have fewer options, increasing the likelihood of curtailments or outages. However, if utilities build too much, customers may be asked to pay for infrastructure that is not fully used.

In response, policymakers are adjusting the rules. In some regions, regulators are moving toward bring-your-own-power approaches that require large data centers to supply or fund part of the capacity needed to serve them or reduce demand during system stress. At the federal level, permitting reforms tied to datacenter infrastructure increasingly treat electricity as a strategic economic input.

As Ken Medlock, senior director at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES), explains:

“Many of the planned data centers are now also adding behind-the-meter options to their development plans because they do not anticipate being able to manage their needs solely from the grid, and they certainly cannot do so with only intermittent power sources.”

Behind-the-meter (BTM) refers to power that a consumer controls on its side of the utility meter, such as on-site gas generation or a dedicated power plant. These resources allow data centers to keep operating during grid-related service. Most facilities remain connected to the grid, but the backup BTM generation serves as insurance for operating their core business.

This shifts responsibility. Utilities traditionally manage reliability across all customers by maintaining an operating reserve margin, or spare capacity. Increasingly, large-load customers manage part of their own electricity reliability needs, which changes how infrastructure is planned and how risk is distributed.

Bottom line

AI-driven load growth is arriving faster and in more concentrated places than the power system was built to accommodate. Utilities and regulators are being forced to make decisions sooner than planned about where to build, how fast to build, and which customers get priority when capacity is limited. The effects extend beyond data centers, showing up in system costs, reliability margins, competition for grid access, and pressure on communities and industries that depend on affordable and dependable power. The issue is not whether electricity can be generated, but how the costs and risks of rapid demand growth are distributed as the system tries to keep up. How regulators balance these decisions will determine who pays as AI demand outruns the power grid.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Houston startup raises $12M to commercialize quantum energy chip technology

seed funding

Houston-based Casimir has emerged from stealth with a $12 million seed round to commercialize its quantum energy chip.

The round was led by Austin-based Scout Ventures. Lavrock Ventures, Cottonwood Technology, Capital Factory, American Deep Tech, and Tim Draper of Draper Associates also participated in the round. The oversubscribed round exceeded the company’s original $8 million target, according to a news release.

Casimir’s semiconductor chips can generate power from quantum vacuum fields without the need for batteries or charging. The company plans to commercialize its first-generation MicroSparc chip by 2028.

The MicroSparc chip measures 5 millimeters by 5 millimeters and is designed to produce 1.5 volts at 25 microamps, comparable to a small rechargeable battery, without degradation and no replacement cycle.

“Casimir represents exactly the kind of breakthrough dual-use technology Scout Ventures was built to back,” Brad Harrison, founder and managing partner at Scout Ventures, said in the release. “This is based on 100 years of science and we’re finally approaching a commercial product … We’re proud to lead this round and support Casimir’s journey from applied science to deployed technology.”

Casimir says it aims to scale its technology across the ”full power spectrum,” including large-scale energy systems that can power homes, commercial infrastructures and electric vehicles.

Casimir's scientific work has been supported by DARPA-funded nanofabrication research and its technology was incubated at the Limitless Space Institute (LSI). LSI is a nonprofit that works to innovate interstellar travel and was founded by Kam Ghaffarian. Technology investor and serial entrepreneur Ghaffarian has been behind companies like X-energy, Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and Quantum Space.

Harold “Sonny” White, founder and CEO of Casimir, believes the technology can power devices for years without replacements.

“Millions of devices will operate for years without a battery ever needing to be replaced or recharged because we have engineered a customized Casimir cavity into hardware capable of producing persistent electrical power,” White added in the release. “I spent nearly two decades at NASA studying how we power humanity’s future. That work led me to the Casimir effect and the quantum vacuum, where new tools have allowed us to build on a century of scientific knowledge and bring abundant power to the world.”

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.com.

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