Guest Column

Guest column: How growing energy demand will impact the Texas grid

Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A View From HETI

To remain the world leader in energy, Houston must ensure that every household has access to affordable and dependable power. Photo via Getty Images

As the energy capital of the world, Houston has been at the forefront of innovation, powering industries and communities for generations. Many Houston families, however, are facing a reality that undermines our leadership: high energy bills and ongoing concerns about grid reliability.

Affordability and reliability are not just technical issues; they’re equity issues. To remain the world leader in energy, we must ensure that every household has access to affordable and dependable power.

Affordability: The First Step Toward Equity

According to the recent 2025 study by The Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute, nearly 80% of low- to moderate-income Houstonians scaled back on basic needs to cover electric bills. Rising costs mean some Houstonians are forced to choose between paying their utility bill or paying for groceries.

Additionally, Houston now has the highest poverty rate among America’s most populous cities. Energy should not be a privilege for only half of our city’s population. That’s why affordability needs to be at the center of Houston’s energy conversation.

Several practical solutions exist to help address this inequity:

  • We can increase transparency in electricity pricing and help families better understand their electricity facts labels to make smarter choices.
  • We can expand energy efficiency programs, like weatherizing homes and apartments, swapping out old light bulbs for LEDs, and adopting smart thermostats.
  • Incentives to help families invest in these changes can deliver long-term benefits for both them and apartment complex owners.

Many small changes, when combined, can add up to significant savings for families while reducing overall demand on the grid.

Reliability: A Shared Community Priority

The memories of Hurricane Beryl, Derecho, and Winter Storm Uri are still fresh in the minds of Texans. We saw firsthand the fragility of our grid and how devastating outages are to families, especially those without resources to handle extreme weather. Reliability of the grid is an issue of public health, economic stability, and community safety.

Houston has an opportunity to lead by embracing innovation. Grid modernization, from deploying microgrids to expanding battery storage, can provide stability when the system is under stress. Partnerships between utilities, businesses, and community organizations are key to building resilience. With Houston’s innovation ecosystem, we can pilot solutions here that other regions will look to replicate.

Energy Equity in Action

Reliable, affordable energy strengthens equity in tangible ways. When households spend less on utilities, they have more to invest in their children’s education or save for the future. When power is stable, schools remain open, businesses continue to operate, and communities thrive. Extending energy efficiency programs across all neighborhoods creates a fairer, more balanced system, breaking down inequities tied to income and geography.

Studies show that expanding urban green spaces such as community gardens and tree-planting programs can lower neighborhood temperatures, reduce energy use for cooling, and improve air quality in disadvantaged areas, directly reducing household utility burdens.

In Houston, for example, the median energy burden for low-income households is 7.1% of income, more than twice that of the general population, with over 20% of households having energy burdens above 6%.

Research also demonstrates that community solar programs and urban cooling investments deliver clean, affordable power, helping to mitigate heat stress and making them high-impact strategies for energy equity and climate resilience in vulnerable neighborhoods.

Public-Private Partnerships Make the Difference

The solutions to affordability and reliability challenges must come from cross-sector collaboration. For example, CenterPoint Energy offers incentives through its Residential and Hard-to-Reach Programs, which support contractors and community agencies in delivering energy efficiency upgrades, including weatherization, to low-income households in the greater Houston area.

Nonprofits like the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) received a $1.9 million Department of Energy grant to lead a weatherization program tailored for underserved communities in Harris County, helping to lower bills and improve housing safety

Meanwhile, the City of Houston’s Green Office Challenge and Better Buildings Initiative bring private-sector sponsors, nonprofits, and city leadership together to drive energy reductions across millions of square feet of commercial buildings, backed by training and financial incentives. Together, these partnerships can result in real impact that brings more equity and access to affordable energy.

BKV Energy is committed to being part of the solution by promoting practical, consumer-focused strategies that help families save money and use energy more efficiently. We offer a suite of programs designed to provide customers with financial benefits and alleviate the burden of rising electricity bills. Programs like BKV Energy’s demonstrate how utilities can ease financial strain for families while building stronger customer loyalty and trust. Expanding similar initiatives across Houston would not only lower household energy burdens but also set a new standard for how energy companies can invest directly in their communities.

By proactively addressing affordability, energy companies can help ensure that rising costs don’t disproportionately impact vulnerable households. These efforts also contribute to a more resilient and equitable energy future for Houston, where all residents can access reliable power without sacrificing financial stability.

Houston as a Blueprint

Houston has always been a city of leadership and innovation, whether pioneering the space race, driving advancements in medical research at the Texas Medical Center, or anchoring the global energy industry. Today, our challenge is just as urgent: affordability and reliability must become the cornerstones of our energy future. Houston has the expertise and the collaborative spirit to show how it can be done.

By scaling innovative solutions, Houston can make energy more equitable, strengthening our own community while setting a blueprint for the nation. As the energy capital of the world, it is both our responsibility and our opportunity to lead the way to a more equitable future for all.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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