A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
Conversations rarely focus on what keeps electricity moving: transmission infrastructure. Photo by REVTLProjects on Unsplash

Expert: Why Texas must make energy transmission a top priority in 2026

guest column

Texas takes pride in running one of the most dynamic and deregulated energy markets in the world, but conversations about electricity rarely focus on what keeps it moving: transmission infrastructure.

As ERCOT projects unprecedented electricity demand growth and grid operators update their forecasts for 2026, it’s becoming increasingly clear that generation, whether renewable or fossil, is only part of the solution. Transmission buildout and sound governing policy now stand as the linchpin for reliability, cost containment, and long-term resilience in a grid under unprecedented stress.

At the heart of this urgency is one simple thing: demand. Over 2024 and 2025, ERCOT has been breaking records at a pace we haven’t seen before. From January through September of 2025 alone, electricity use jumped more than 5% over the year before, the fastest growth of any major U.S. grid. And it’s not slowing down.

The Energy Information Administration expects demand to climb another 14% in 2026, pushing total consumption to roughly 425 terawatt-hours in just the first nine months. That surge isn’t just about more people moving to Texas or running their homes differently; it’s being driven by massive industrial and technology loads that simply weren’t part of the equation ten years ago.

The most dramatic contributor to that rising demand is large-scale infrastructure such as data centers, cloud computing campuses, crypto mining facilities, and electrified industrial sectors. In the latest ERCOT planning update, more than 233 gigawatts of total “large load” interconnection requests were being tracked, an almost 300% jump over just a year earlier, with more than 70% of those requests tied to data centers.

Imagine hundreds of new power plants requesting to connect to the grid, all demanding uninterrupted power 24/7. That’s the scale of the transition Texas is facing, and it’s one of the major reasons transmission planning is no longer back-of-house policy talk but a central grid imperative.

Yet transmission is complicated, costly, and inherently long-lead. It takes three to six years to build new transmission infrastructure, compared with six to twelve months to add a new load or generation project.

This is where Texas will feel the most tension. Current infrastructure can add customers and power plants quickly, but the lines to connect them reliably take time, money, permitting, and political will.

To address these impending needs, ERCOT wrapped up its 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) at the end of last year, and the message was pretty clear: we’ve got work to do. The plan calls for 274 transmission projects and about 6,000 miles of new, rebuilt, or upgraded lines just to handle the growth coming our way and keep the lights on.

The plan also suggests upgrading to 765-kilovolt transmission lines, a big step beyond the standard 345-kV system. When you start talking about 765-kilovolt transmission lines, that’s a big leap from what Texas normally uses. Those lines are built to move a massive amount of power over long distances, but they’re expensive and complicated, so they’re only considered when planners expect demand to grow far beyond normal levels. Recommending them is a clear signal that incremental upgrades won’t be enough to keep up with where electricity demand is headed.

There’s a reason transmission is suddenly getting so much attention. ERCOT and just about every industry analyst watching Texas are projecting that electricity demand could climb as high as 218 gigawatts by 2031 if even a portion of the massive queue of large-load projects actually comes online. When you focus only on what’s likely to get built, the takeaway is the same: demand is going to stay well above anything we’ve seen before, driven largely by the steady expansion of data centers, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure across the state.

Ultimately, the decisions Texas makes on transmission investment and the policies that determine how those costs are allocated will shape whether 2026 and the years ahead bring greater stability or continued volatility to the grid. Thoughtful planning can support growth while protecting reliability and affordability, but falling short risks making volatility a lasting feature of Texas’s energy landscape.

Transmission Policy: The Other Half of the Equation

Infrastructure investment delivers results only when paired with policies that allow it to operate efficiently and at scale. Recognizing that markets alone won’t solve these challenges, Texas lawmakers and regulators have started creating guardrails.

For example, Senate Bill 6, now part of state law, aims to improve how large energy consumers are managed on the grid, including new rules for data center operations during emergencies and requirements around interconnection. Data centers may even be required to disconnect under extreme conditions to protect overall system reliability, a novel and necessary rule given their scale.

Similarly, House Bill 5066 changed how load forecasting occurs by requiring ERCOT to include utility-reported projections in its planning processes, ensuring transmission planning incorporates real-world expectations. These policy updates matter because grid planning isn’t just a technical checklist. It’s about making sure investment incentives, permitting decisions, and cost-sharing rules are aligned so Texas can grow its economy without putting unnecessary pressure on consumers.

Without thoughtful policy, we risk repeating past grid management mistakes. For example, if transmission projects are delayed or underfunded while new high-demand loads come online, we could see congestion worsen. If that happens, affordable electricity would be located farther from where it’s needed, limiting access to low-cost power for consumers and slowing overall economic growth. That’s especially critical in regions like Houston, where energy costs are already a hot topic for households and businesses alike.

A 2026 View: Strategy Over Shortage

As we look toward 2026, here are the transmission and policy trends that matter most:

  • Pipeline of Projects Must Stay on Track: ERCOT’s RTP is ambitious, and keeping those 274 projects, thousands of circuit miles, and next-generation 765-kV lines moving is crucial for reliability and cost containment.
  • Large Load Forecasting Must Be Nuanced: The explosion in large-load interconnection requests, whether or not every project materializes, signals demand pressure that transmission planners cannot ignore. Building lines ahead of realized demand is not wasteful planning; it’s insurance against cost and reliability breakdowns.
  • Policy Frameworks Must Evolve: Laws like SB 6 and HB 5066 are just the beginning. Texas needs transparent rules for cost allocation, interconnection standards, and emergency protocols that keep consumers protected while supporting innovation and economic growth.
  • Coordination Among Stakeholders Is Critical: Transmission doesn’t stop at one utility’s borders. Regional cooperation among utilities, ERCOT, and local stakeholders is essential to manage congestion and develop systemwide reliability solutions.

Here’s the bottom line: Generation gets the headlines, but transmission makes the grid work. Without a robust transmission buildout and thoughtful governance, even the most advanced generation mix that includes wind, solar, gas, and storage will struggle to deliver the reliability Texans expect at a price they can afford.

In 2026, Texas is not merely testing its grid’s capacity to produce power; it’s testing its ability to move that power where it’s needed most. How we rise to meet that challenge will define the next decade of energy in the Lone Star State.

———

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

ENGIE plans to add one wind and two solar projects to the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels.

Houston-based ENGIE to add new wind and solar projects to Texas grid

coming soon

Houston-based ENGIE North America Inc. has expanded its partnership with Los Angeles-based Ares Infrastructure Opportunities to add 730 megawatts of renewable energy projects to the ERCOT grid.

The new projects will include one wind and two solar projects in Texas.

“The continued growth of our relationship with Ares reflects the strength of ENGIE’s portfolio of assets and our track record of delivering, operating and financing growth in the U.S. despite challenging circumstances,” Dave Carroll, CEO and Chief Renewables Officer of ENGIE North America, said in a news release. “The addition of another 730 MW of generation to our existing relationship reflects the commitment both ENGIE and Ares have to meeting growing demand for power in the U.S. and our willingness to invest in meeting those needs.”

ENGIE has more than 11 gigawatts of renewable energy projects in operation or under construction in the U.S. and Canada, and 52.7 gigawatts worldwide. The company is targeting 95 gigawatts by 2030.

ENGIE launched three new community solar farms in Illinois since December, including the 2.5-megawatt Harmony community solar farm in Lena and the Knox 2A and Knox 2B projects in Galesburg.

The company's 600-megawatt Swenson Ranch Solar project near Abilene, Texas, is expected to go online in 2027 and will provide power for Meta, the parent company of social media platform Facebook. Late last year, ENGIE also signed a nine-year renewable energy supply agreement with AstraZeneca to support the pharmaceutical company’s manufacturing operations from its 114-megawatt Tyson Nick Solar Project in Lamar County, Texas.

NRG Energy has partnered with Sunrun to grow its virtual power plant and support the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels.

NRG makes latest partnership to grow virtual power plant

VPP partners

Houston-based NRG Energy recently announced a new long-term partnership with San Francisco-based Sunrun that aims to meet Texas’ surging energy demands and accelerate the adoption of home battery storage in Texas. The partnership also aligns with NRG’s goal of developing a 1-gigawatt virtual power plant by connecting thousands of decentralized energy sources by 2035.

Through the partnership, the companies will offer Texas residents home energy solutions that pair Sunrun’s solar-plus-storage systems with optimized rate plans and smart battery programming through Reliant, NRG’s retail electricity provider. As new customers enroll, their stored energy can be aggregated and dispatched to the ERCOT grid, according to a news release.

Additionally, Sunrun and NRG will work to create customer plans that aggregate and dispatch distributed power and provide electricity to Texas’ grid during peak periods.

“Texas is growing fast, and our electricity supply must keep pace,” Brad Bentley, executive vice president and president of NRG Consumer, said in the release. “By teaming up with Sunrun, we’re unlocking a new source of dispatchable, flexible energy while giving customers the opportunity to unlock value from their homes and contribute to a more resilient grid

Participating Reliant customers will be paid for sharing their stored solar energy through the partnership. Sunrun will be compensated for aggregating the stored capacity.

“This partnership demonstrates the scale and strength of Sunrun’s storage and solar distributed power plant assets,” Sunrun CEO Mary Powell added in the release. “We are delivering critical energy infrastructure that gives Texas families affordable, resilient power and builds a reliable, flexible power plant for the grid.”

In December, Reliant also teamed up with San Francisco tech company GoodLeap to bolster residential battery participation and accelerate the growth of NRG’s virtual power plant network in Texas.

In 2024, NRG partnered with California-based Renew Home to distribute hundreds of thousands of VPP-enabled smart thermostats by 2035 to help households manage and lower their energy costs. At the time, the company reported that its 1-gigawatt VPP would be able to provide energy to 200,000 homes during peak demand.

Texas leaned heavily on clean energy in 2025. Photo via Pexels

Energy expert: What 2025 revealed about the evolution of Texas power

guest column

2025 marked a pivotal year for Texas’ energy ecosystem. Rising demand, accelerating renewable integration, tightening reserve margins and growing industrial load reshaped the way policymakers, utilities and the broader market think about reliability.

This wasn’t just another year of operational challenges; it was a clear signal that the state is entering an era where growth and innovation must move together in unison if Texas is going to keep pace.

What happened in 2025 is already influencing the decisions utilities, regulators and large energy consumers will make in 2026 and beyond. If Texas is going to remain the nation’s proving ground for large-scale energy innovation, this year made one thing clear: we need every tool working together and working smarter.

What changed: Grid, policy & the growth of renewables

This year, ERCOT recorded one of the steepest demand increases in its history. From January through September 2025, electricity consumption reached 372 terawatt-hours (TWh), a 5 percent increase over the previous year and a 23 percent jump since 2021. That growth officially positions ERCOT as the fastest-expanding large grid in the country.

To meet this rising load, Texas leaned heavily on clean energy. Solar, wind and battery storage served approximately 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity needs over the first nine months of the year, a milestone that showcased how quickly Texas has diversified its generation mix. Utility-scale solar surged to 45 TWh, up 50 percent year-over-year, while wind generation reached 87 TWh, a 36 percent increase since 2021.

Battery storage also proved its value. What was once niche is now essential: storage helped shift mid-day excess solar to evening peaks, especially during a historic week in early spring when Texas hit new highs for simultaneous wind, solar and battery output.

Still, natural gas remained the backbone of reliability. Dispatchable thermal resources supplied more than 50 percent of ERCOT’s power 92 percent of the time in Q3 2025. That dual structure of fast-growing renewables backed by firm gas generation is now the defining characteristic of Texas’s energy identity.

But growth cuts both ways. Intermittent generation is up, yet demand is rising faster. Storage is scaling, but not quite at the rate required to fill the evening reliability gap. And while new clean-energy projects are coming online rapidly, the reality of rising population, data center growth, electrification and heavy industrial expansion continues to outpace the additions.

A recent forecast from the Texas Legislative Study Group projects demand could climb another 14 percent by mid-2026, tightening reserve margins unless meaningful additions in capacity, or smarter systemwide usage, arrive soon.

What 2025 meant for the energy ecosystem

The challenges of 2025 pushed Texas to rethink reliability as a shared responsibility between grid operators, generation companies, large load customers, policymakers and consumers. The year underscored several realities:

1. The grid is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Solar thrives in summer; wind dominates in spring and winter. But extreme heat waves and cold snaps also push demand to unprecedented levels. Reliability now hinges on planning for volatility, not just averages.

2. Infrastructure is straining under rapid load growth. The grid handled multiple stress events in 2025, but it required decisive coordination and emerging technologies, such as storage methods, to do so.

3. Innovation is no longer optional. Advanced forecasting, grid-scale batteries, demand flexibility tools, and hybrid renewable-gas portfolios are now essential components of grid stability.

4. Data centers and industrial electrification are changing the game. Large flexible loads present both a challenge and an opportunity. With proper coordination, they can help stabilize the grid. Without it, they can exacerbate conditions of scarcity.

Texas can meet these challenges, but only with intentional leadership and strong public-private collaboration.

The system-level wins of 2025

Despite volatility, 2025 showcased meaningful progress:

Renewables proved their reliability role. Hitting 36 percent of ERCOT’s generation mix for three consecutive quarters demonstrates that wind, solar and batteries are no longer supplemental — they’re foundational.

Storage emerged as a real asset for reliability. Battery deployments doubled their discharge records in early 2025, showing the potential of short-duration storage during peak periods.

The dual model works when balanced wisely. Natural gas continues to provide firm reliability during low-renewable hours. When paired with renewable growth, Texas gains resilience without sacrificing affordability.

Energy literacy increased across the ecosystem. Communities, utilities and even industrial facilities are paying closer attention to how loads, pricing signals, weather and grid conditions interact—a necessary cultural shift in a fast-changing market.

Where Texas goes in 2026

Texas heads into 2026 with several unmistakable trends shaping the road ahead. Rate adjustments will continue as utilities like CenterPoint request cost recovery to strengthen infrastructure, modernize outdated equipment and add the capacity needed to handle record-breaking growth in load.

At the same time, weather-driven demand is expected to stay unpredictable. While summer peaks will almost certainly set new records, winter is quickly becoming the bigger wild card, especially as natural gas prices and heating demand increasingly drive both reliability planning and consumer stress.

Alongside these pressures, distributed energy is set for real expansion. Rooftop solar, community battery systems and hybrid generation-storage setups are no longer niche upgrades; they’re quickly becoming meaningful grid assets that help support reliability at scale.

And underlying all of this is a cultural shift toward energy literacy. The utilities, regulators, businesses, and institutions that understand load flexibility, pricing signals and efficiency strategies will be the ones best positioned to manage costs and strengthen the grid. In a market that’s evolving this fast, knowing how we use energy matters just as much as knowing how much.

The big picture: 2025 as a blueprint for a resilient future

If 2025 showed us anything, it’s that Texas can scale innovation at a pace few states can match. We saw record renewable output, historic storage milestones and strong thermal performance during strain events. The Texas grid endured significant stress but maintained operational integrity.

But it also showed that reliability isn’t a static achievement; it’s a moving target. As population growth, AI and industrial electrification and weather extremes intensify, Texas must evolve from a reactive posture to a proactive one.

The encouraging part is that Texas has the tools, the talent and the market structure to build one of the most resilient and future-ready power ecosystems in the world. The test ahead isn’t whether we can generate enough power; it’s whether we can coordinate systems, technologies and market behavior fast enough to meet the moment.

And in 2026, that coordination is precisely where the opportunity lies.

———

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

ERCOT plans to build a “super highway” of new transmission lines to boost grid reliability. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT approves $9.4B project to improve grid, meet data center demand

power project

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the electric grid for 90 percent of Texans, is undertaking a $9.4 billion project to improve the reliability and efficiency of statewide power distribution. The initiative comes as ERCOT copes with escalating demand for electricity from data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

The project, approved Dec. 9 by ERCOT’s board, will involve building a 1,109-mile “super highway” of new 765-kilovolt transmission lines. One kilovolt equals 1,000 volts of electricity.

According to the Hoodline Dallas news site, the $9.4 billion project represents the five- to six-year first phase of ERCOT’s Strategic Transmission Expansion Plan (STEP). Hoodline says the plan, whose price tag is nearly $33 billion, calls for 2,468 miles of new 765-kilovolt power lines.

STEP will enable ERCOT to “move power longer distances with fewer losses,” Hoodline reports.

Upgrading the ERCOT grid is a key priority amid continued population growth in Texas, along with the state’s explosion of new data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

ERCOT says about 11,000 megawatts of new power generation capacity have been added to the ERCOT grid since last winter.

But in a report released ahead of the December board meeting, ERCOT says it received 225 requests this year from large power users to connect to its grid — a 270 percent uptick in the number of megawatts being sought by mega-users since last December. Nearly three-fourths (73 percent) of the requests came from data centers.

Allan Schurr, chief commercial officer of Houston-based Enchanted Rock, a provider of products and services for microgrids and onsite power generation, tells Energy Capital that the quickly expanding data center industry is putting “unprecedented pressure” on ERCOT’s grid.

“While the state has added new generation and transmission capacity, lengthy interconnection timelines and grid-planning limitations mean that supply and transmission are not keeping pace with this rapid expansion,” Schurr says. “This impacts both reliability and affordability.”

For families in Texas, this could result in higher energy bills, he says. Meanwhile, critical facilities like hospitals and grocery stores face a heightened challenge of preventing power outages during extreme weather or at other times when the ERCOT grid is taxed.

“I expect this trend to continue as AI and high-density computing grow, driving higher peak demand and greater grid variability — made even more complex by more renewables, extreme weather and other large energy users, like manufacturers,” Schurr says.

According to the Pew Research Center, data centers accounted for 4 percent of U.S. electricity use in 2024, and power demand from data centers is expected to more than double by 2030. Data centers that support the AI boom make up much of the rising demand.

In September, RBN Energy reported more than 10 massive data-center campuses had been announced in Texas, with dozens more planned. The Lone Star State is already home to roughly 400 data centers.

“Texas easily ranks among the nation’s top states for existing data centers, with only Virginia edging it out in both data-center count and associated power demand,” says RBN Energy.

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Here are 5 must-attend Houston energy events for February 2026

Mark Your Calendar

Editor's note: The second half of February is buzzing with must-attend events for those in the Houston energy sector. We've rounded up a host of events to put on your calendar for the month, with topics ranging from AI in energy to emissions management for a sustainable future. Get the details below, and register now.

Feb. 18-20 — NAPE Summit Week 2026

NAPE is the energy industry’s marketplace for the buying, selling, and trading of prospects and producing properties. NAPE brings together all industry disciplines and companies of all sizes, and in 2026 it will introduce three new hubs — offshore, data centers, and critical minerals — for more insights, access, and networking opportunities. The event includes a summit, exhibition, and more.

This event begins Feb. 18 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Feb. 23-25 — AI in Energy Summit

The third annual AI in Energy Summit will bring together 200 senior leaders from the utilities, oil and gas, power generation, and renewables sectors for three days of conversation in Houston, the heart of energy innovation. Attendees will hear directly from operators who’ve taken AI projects from proof of concept to full deployment; learn how make data AI-ready and align AI with business goals; and discover what’s working in GenAI, ML Ops, Agentic AI, and more.

This event begins Feb. 23 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

Feb. 24-26 — 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference

The 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference marks the 19th year for the Ken Kennedy Institute to convene experts from the energy industry, academia, and national labs to share breakthroughs for HPC and AI technologies. The conference returns to Houston with engaging speaker sessions, a technical talk program, networking receptions, add-on workshops, and more.

This event begins Feb. 24 at Rice University's BRC. Register here.

Feb. 25-26 — Energy Emissions Management Conference

The fifth annual Energy Emissions Management Conference is the premier gathering for energy leaders who are committed to staying ahead of the rapidly evolving emissions landscape. The conference aims to foster collaboration, drive technological innovation, and strengthen transparency, supporting organizations in meeting their regulatory obligations and sustainability goals.

This event begins Feb. 25 at Hilton Houston Westchase. Register here.

Feb. 26 — February Transition on Tap

Mix and mingle at Greentown Labs' first Transition on Tap event of the year. Meet the accelerator's newest startup members, who are working on innovations ranging from methane capture to emissions-free manufacturing processes to carbon management.

This event begins at 5:30 pm on Feb. 26 at Greentown Labs Houston. Register here.

Syzygy inks long-term offtake agreement for first commercial SAF plant

fuel deal

Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics has secured a six-year official offtake agreement for the entire production volume of its first commercial-scale biogas-to-sustainable aviation fuel project in Uruguay, known as NovaSAF-1.

SP Developments Uruguay S.A., a subsidiary of Syzygy, entered into the agreement with Singapore-based commodity company Trafigura, according to a news release. There is also an option for Trafigura to purchase additional volumes from future Syzygy projects.

The first deliveries from the landmark SAF facility are expected in 2028.

“This agreement marks a critical step in our journey toward commercial-scale impact and disrupting the SAF market,” Trevor Best, CEO of Syzygy Plasmonics, said in the news release. “With a signed offtake agreement from a global leader like Trafigura, and after having successfully completed FEED engineering in December, we're now ready to secure financing for the construction of NovaSAF-1 and move our technology from potential into production."

The NovaSAF-1 project will be located in Durazno, Uruguay. The facility will be the world's first electrified biogas-to-SAF facility producing renewable and advanced compliant SAF. Syzygy estimates that the project will produce over 350,000 gallons of SAF annually. The facility is expected to produce SAF with at least an 80 percent reduction in carbon intensity compared to Jet A fuel.

It’s backed by Uruguay’s largest dairy and agri-energy operations, Estancias del Lago. It will also work with Houston-based Velocys, which will provide Fischer-Tropsch technology for the project. Fischer-Tropsch technology converts synthesis gas into liquid hydrocarbons, which is key for producing synthetic fuels like SAF.