Guest column: How growing energy demand will impact the Texas grid

Guest Column

Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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SMT Energy is expected to bring a new battery storage facility online next year to support the ERCOT grid. Photo via Getty Images

$135 million in funding secured for new Houston battery storage facility

battery expansion

Boulder, Colorado-based SMT Energy has secured $135 million in funding for a 160-megawatt battery energy storage facility, dubbed SMT Houston IV, according to an announcement.

The new facility will work to support the ERCOT grid by providing access to stored energy. The project is expected to be online by 2026 and store and dispatch enough electricity to power 8,800 homes in Texas annually.

Macquarie and KeyBanc Capital Markets were joint lead arrangers in a $100 million project financing facility. Macquarie's Commodities and Global Markets business will also provide a preferred equity investment and are mandated to sell the project's investment tax credits of approximately $62 million, according to SMT. KeyBanc will also act as a financial advisor to SMT.

North Carolina-based battery energy storage integrator FlexGen Power Systems will obtain equipment for the project. The project will also use FlexGen's energy management system software. The software provides site integration, site control and advanced analytics insights to maximize the availability and operating ranges of battery energy storage assets.

"FlexGen is proud to partner with SMT Energy on the deployment of the SMT Houston IV project, which will deliver critical services to the dynamic ERCOT power grid," Jason Abiecunas, Executive Vice President of Business Development with FlexGen said in the release.

In 2023, SMT Energy and joint venture partner SUSI Partners announced plans to add 10 battery storage projects to Texas, doubling capacity from 100 megawatts to 200 megawatts in the Houston and Dallas areas. SMT has a 2 gigawatt per hour pipeline of battery energy storage projects in ERCOT and Southwest Power Pool targeted for commercial operation by 2030, according to the release.

Solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the ERCOT grid during some of 2024's hottest summer days. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

Report: Texas solar power, battery storage helped stabilize grid in summer 2024, but challenges remain

by the numbers

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that solar power and battery storage capacity helped stabilize Texas’ electric grid last summer.

Between June 1 and Aug. 31, solar power met nearly 25 percent of midday electricity demand within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power grid. Rising solar and battery output in ERCOT assisted Texans during a summer of triple-digit heat and record load demands, but the report fears that the state’s power load will be “pushed to its limits” soon.

The report examined how the grid performed during more demanding hours. At peak times, between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. in the summer of 2024, solar output averaged nearly 17,000 megawatts compared with 12,000 megawatts during those hours in the previous year. Between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m., discharge from battery facilities averaged 714 megawatts in 2024 after averaging 238 megawatts for those hours in 2023. Solar and battery output have continued to grow since then, according to the report.

“Batteries made a meaningful contribution to what those shoulder periods look like and how much scarcity we get into during these peak events,” ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said at a board of directors conference call.

Increases in capacity from solar and battery-storage power in 2024 also eclipsed those of 2023. In 2023 ECOT added 4,570 megawatts of solar, compared to adding nearly 9,700 megawatts in 2024. Growth in battery storage capacity also increased from about 1,500 megawatts added in 2023 to more than 4,000 megawatts added in 2024. Natural gas capacity also saw increases while wind capacity dropped by about 50 percent.

Texas’ installation of utility-scale solar surpassed California’s in the spring of last year, and jumped from 1,900 megawatts in 2019 to over 20,000 megawatts in 2024 with solar meeting about 50 percent of Texas' peak power demand during some days.

While the numbers are encouraging, the report states that there could be future challenges, as more generating capacity will be required due to data center construction and broader electrification trends. The development of generating more capacity will rely on multiple factors like price signals and market conditions that invite more baseload and dispatchable generating capacity, which includes longer-duration batteries, and investment in power purchase agreements and other power arrangements by large-scale consumers, according to the report.

Additionally, peak demand during winter freezes presents challenges not seen in the summer. For example, in colder months, peak electricity demand often occurs in the early morning before solar energy is available, and it predicts that current battery storage may be insufficient to meet the demand. The analysis indicated a 50% chance of rolling outages during a cold snap similar to December 2022 and an 80% chance if conditions mirror the February 2021 deep freeze at the grid’s current state.

The report also claimed that ERCOT’s energy-only market design and new incentive structures, such as the Texas Energy Fund, do not appear to be enough to meet the predicted future magnitude and speed of load growth.

Read the full report here.

Jupiter Power's Callisto I is up and running. Photo courtesy of jupiterpower.io

Houston clean energy storage facility goes online to power ERCOT grid

green light

A new battery energy storage facility in Houston is officially up and running to power the ERCOT grid with a supply of reliable, zero emissions power.

Jupiter Power announced the commercial operations launch of its 400-megawatt-hour battery facility, Callisto I, in central Houston on the site of the former HL&P H.O. Clarke fossil fuel power plant.

"Jupiter couldn't be prouder about bringing the Callisto I project online," Andy Bowman, CEO of Jupiter Power, says in a news release. "This project responds to lawmakers' calls to increase affordable and dispatchable new generation in an area where people need more power. Callisto I is the first energy storage project at this scale in the City of Houston and will help meet Houston's growing power needs while also increasing resiliency from extreme weather events."

The new project is Jupiter Power's ninth project to deliver energy storage to ERCOT — bringing its total ERCOT fleet to 1,375-megawatt-hour capacity — but its the first in the Houston area. The company is currently developing over 11,000 megawatts of projects across the country. Founded in 2017, Jupiter Power is headquartered in Austin and has offices in Houston and Chicago.

"The announcement of Jupiter Power's Callisto I Energy Storage project is significant and exciting for the region, as it's the first large-scale transmission-connected energy storage project in the City of Houston," Jane Stricker, senior vice president at the Greater Houston Partnership and executive director at the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, adds. "This critical project will help address peak power demand and is another great example of our region's leadership in scaling and deploying impactful solutions for an all the above energy future."

Among the company's financial backers is Houston-based EnCap Energy Transition, which invested in Jupiter Power via its Fund II.

U.S. Congressman Jake Ellzey made the announcement in Dallas last week. Photo courtesy of Google

Google to invest $1B in clean energy, data center tech in Texas

money moves

Google is making a big investment in Texas to the tune of $1 billion.

According to a news release from the company, the tech giant will spend more than $1 billion to support its cloud and data center infrastructure and expand its commitment to clean energy.

The $1 billion will be spent on data center campuses in Midlothian and Red Oak to help meet growing demand for Google Cloud, AI innovations, and other digital products and services such as Search, Maps, and Workspace.

In addition to its data center investment, Google has also forged long-term power purchase agreements with Houston-based Engie, as well as Madrid-based entities Elawan, Grupo Cobra, and X-ELIO for solar energy based in Texas. Together, these new agreements are expected to provide 375 MW of carbon-free energy capacity, which will help support Google’s operations in Texas.

These agreements were facilitated through LEAP (LevelTen Energy’s Accelerated Process), which was co-developed by Google and LevelTen Energy to make sourcing and executing clean energy PPAs more efficient, and contributes to the company’s ambitious 2030 goal to run on 24/7 carbon-free energy on every grid where it operates.

The company has contracted with energy partners to bring more than 2,800 megawatts (MW) of new wind and solar projects to the state. Google’s CFE percentage in the ERCOT grid region, which powers its Texas data centers, nearly doubled from 41 percent in 2022 to 79 percent in 2023.

The initiatives were announced at a conference in Midlothian on August 15, attended by business leaders and politicians including U.S. Congressman Jake Ellzey, Google Cloud VP Yolande Piazza, Ted Cruz, and Citi CIO Shadman Zafar.

The Dallas cloud region is part of Google Cloud's global network of 40 regions that delivers services to large enterprises, startups, and public sector organizations.

In a statement, Piazza said that "expanding our cloud and data center infrastructure in Midlothian and Red Oak reflects our confidence in the state's ability to lead in the digital economy."

Data centers are the engines behind the growing digital economy. Google has helped train more than 1 million residents in digital skills through partnerships with 590 local organizations, including public libraries, chambers of commerce, and community colleges.

In addition to its cloud region and Midlothian data center, Google has offices in Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The new Google’s total investment in Texas to more than $2.7 billion.

———

This article originally ran on CultureMap.

This latest incident is more than a sign that Houstonians must take control of their power. Photo by Eric Turnquist

Op-Ed: To protect the Texas grid, help Texans protect themselves

guest column

On the evening of May 16, a devastating “derecho” storm howled through Houston. Nearly 800,000 customers lost power. Many were still without electricity days later, as a heat wave baked neighborhoods that couldn’t power air conditioners.

It was yet another unwelcome reminder about the precariousness of the power grid.

These outages followed repeated grid warnings, conservation calls, and near-misses last summer and the summer before, as well as the catastrophic Winter Storm Uri freeze in February 2021.

The outages also preceded the increasingly extreme weather Texas faces and staggering growth on the ERCOT grid: after growing about 1 percent a year for 20 years, the power grid covering most of Texas may need to be 78 percent bigger by 2030.

So, this latest incident is more than a sign that Houstonians must take control of their power. It also shows that more and more, the state needs you to act.

Like any other market, a power grid runs on supply and demand. The supply of Texas energy is growing, which is great. At the same time, the economy is booming, leaving Texas setting demand records almost constantly. Generators can’t always keep up, especially when power plants break down or don’t produce electricity — there’s about an 18 percent chance that Texas will face at least one grid emergency this summer.

With odds like that, it’s no wonder that more and more Texans are finding ways to live more powerfully. Many are investing in solar panels and energy storage devices like Tesla Powerwalls.

These systems let families and business owners generate electricity during the day, store it, and use it later when there’s an emergency or just when power is scarce. They protect people from high bills and blackouts; it’s no coincidence that just since last month's storm, we've seen a five-fold increase in leads, reflecting a huge growth in interest in solar power. Further, since the storm, 90 percent of new Houston-area solar customers have bought backup battery systems, compared to 50 percent in 2024 and less than 25 percent in 2023.

That pattern has repeated across the country after severe weather events.

Homeowners and business owners can also slash their bills by weatherizing houses and buildings, the way power plants did after Uri. Advanced devices that help people automatically, and voluntarily, reduce electricity use when the grid is stretched would also help.

These improvements and investments would help more than just homeowners and business owners — they’d help the entire power grid. Every kilowatt that someone doesn’t need or can generate themselves frees up power for other families and businesses across the grid. That helps Texas keep the lights on, especially if electricity demand is about to spike as dramatically as the state expects.

Texas already incentivizes conservation and generation at a large scale. For example, large users like manufacturers and crypto miners get paid by ERCOT for reducing electricity use when the grid is stretched. And just last year, the legislature passed a $10 billion program to help fund new gas power plants.

It’s past time to extend similar incentives to everyday Texans, especially when we’re increasingly called upon to help ERCOT keep the lights on.

If crypto companies get money for reducing electricity use when ERCOT asks them to, then residential and business customers deserve to get paid too. The state could help Texans invest in technologies and smart metering programs that cut bills andautomatically reward people for reducing use on the hottest afternoons and coldest mornings.

More than that, the state has got to do more to reward solar customers who generate electricity and return it to the grid when demand rises. These virtual power plants will increasingly provide vital power when the state badly needs it, and consumers need to be rewarded for it. (Fortunately, the state is looking at strategies to take better advantage of virtual power plants.)

Finally, if Texas is helping big generators build gas plants, it should figure out ways to help regular Texans install solar panels and battery storage units. Such systems obviously help protect Texans from power outages, but they also fortify the ERCOT grid by reducing the demand on it.

Last month’s derecho was exactly the sort of freak occurrence that will become more common as the weather grows more extreme. The best way to protect the grid from such catastrophes is to protect individual Texas customers as well.

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Bret Biggart is CEO of Freedom Solar Power, a Texas-based solar company.

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Hydrogen Technology Expo expected to bring largest event yet to NRG Center

where to be

The Hydrogen Technology Expo North America returns to NRG Center this month, June 25-26, and is slated to be the largest yet with an expected 10,000 attendees, 500 exhibitors, 200 speakers and more than 100 hours of content.

The 2025 event will feature cutting-edge technologies, interactive panel discussions and networking opportunities while targeting industries looking to adopt hydrogen and fuel cell technology to help decarbonize their sectors. The event will be co-located with the Carbon Capture Technology Expo North America.

The 2025 expo will introduce the new Ammonia Zone, a dedicated area fostering collaboration with industries leveraging ammonia as a key component in the hydrogen economy. It will also offer one- and two-day passes for the first time.

The expo is divided into five tracks:

Strategic forum
Hydrogen and alternative fuel production
Infrastructure and integration
Mobility and propulsion systems
Carbon capture, utilization and storage

Speakers include Martin Perez, former associate director for carbon capture at the office of clean energy demonstrations for the U.S. Department of Energy; Frank Wolak, president and CEO of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association; Seema Santhakumar, hydrogen market development leader –Americas at Baker Hughes; Rich Byrnes, chief infrastructure officer for Port Houston; and many others. A full list of exhibitors can be found here.

Technologies on display will include storage systems, industrial plant technologies, liquefaction technologies, advanced materials and composites, gasification technology, simulation and evaluation, safety systems, hydrogen fuels, hydrogen injectors, line assemblies, fuel-cell control units and more.

“The Hydrogen Technology Expo offers industry leaders a valuable opportunity to network and stay informed about the latest developments in the rapidly evolving world of hydrogen,” Susan Shifflett, Executive Director at Texas Hydrogen Alliance, said. “We’re a proud partner of the show.”

Entry to the exhibition hall is free of charge. Passes start at $450. Find more information about how to register here.

CenterPoint reaches agreement on SRP to significantly reduce outages

grid resilience

CenterPoint Energy has reached a settlement agreement with parties to its 2026-2028 Systemwide Resiliency Plan (SRP), which will represent the largest single grid resiliency investment in CenterPoint's history.

The plan is expected to reduce storm-related outages by 1 billion minutes for its 2.8 million customers by 2029 and build on the first two phases of the company's Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative (GHRI), according to a release from CenterPoint.

This SRP is designed to further address the impacts of extreme weather threats. The deal, which is subject to Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) review and approval, reflects discussions with intervening parties following the filing of CenterPoint's enhanced SRP with the PUCT in January 2025.

“Our plan is cost-effective and will build on the progress we've made to date through the Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative,” Jason Wells, president and CEO of CenterPoint, said in a news release. “We believe that these resiliency actions will help create a future with fewer outages that impact smaller clusters of customers, coupled with faster restoration times for our Greater Houston communities.”

Included in the SRP is a revised, agreed-upon investment of more than $3 billion in CenterPoint's electric distribution system, and also includes the deferment of more than $240 million in SRP costs until the second half of 2029, which will spread the costs out for customers over a four-year period. All SRP work will be completed in the proposed 2026-2028 timeframe, once approved.

The plan will target high-risk areas. Key initiatives include:

Distributing 130,000 stronger storm-resilient poles
Clearing 100 percent of power lines of hazardous vegetation every three years
Undergrounding more than 50 percent of CenterPoint's system
Modernizing 20,150 spans of underground cables
Automating lines serving the most customers to make them capable of “self-healing”

CenterPoint also announced it will continue its nearly $2 billion investment planned for the electric transmission system, which includes rebuilding or upgrading 2,200 structures to help withstand extreme weather.

The SRP investment in the electric distribution system would add $1.40 per month for an average residential customer each year from 2026 through 2028, with a final $0.60 per month added in 2030, according to the news release.

“This is another major step on our strategic roadmap to building and operating the most resilient coastal grid in the nation,” Wells said in the release.

In preparation for filing the SRP, CenterPoint ran 30 community meetings, listening sessions and solicited feedback on the plan during the draft stages.

In April, CenterPoint began building a network of 100 new weather monitoring stations, which will provide 24/7 weather monitoring and storm response preparation, and in June began installing 100 new local weather monitoring stations as part of the GHRI Phase 2. Also in April, CenterPoint began a collaboration between AI-powered predictive modeling platform company Neara and utility infrastructure asset assessment solutions company Osmose.

Enbridge activates first solar power project in Texas

power on

Canadian energy company Enbridge Inc., whose gas transmission and midstream operations are based in Houston, has flipped the switch on its first solar power project in Texas.

The Orange Grove project, about 45 miles west of Corpus Christi, is now generating 130 megawatts of energy that feeds into the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). ERCOT supplies electricity to 90 percent of the state.

Orange Grove features 300,000 solar panels installed on more than 920 acres in Jim Wells County. Construction began in 2024.

Telecom giant AT&T has signed a long-term power purchase agreement with Enbridge to buy energy from Orange Grove at a fixed price. Rather than physically acquiring this power, though, AT&T will receive renewable energy certificates. One renewable energy certificate represents the consumption of one megawatt of grid power from renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.

“Orange Grove is a key part of our commitment to develop, construct, and operate onshore renewable projects across North America,” Matthew Akman, executive vice president of corporate strategy and president of renewable power at Enbridge, said in 2024.

Orange Grove isn’t Enbridge’s only Texas project. Enbridge owns the 110-megawatt Keechi wind farm in Jacksboro, about 60 miles northwest of Fort Worth, and the 249.1-megawatt Chapman Ranch wind farm near Corpus Christi, along with a majority stake in the 203.3-megatt Magic Valley I wind farm near Harlingen. The company’s 815-megawatt Sequoia solar project, east of Abilene, is scheduled to go online in early 2026. Enbridge has signed long-term power purchase agreements with AT&T and Toyota North America for energy produced by Sequoia.

During a recent earnings call, Enbridge President and CEO Greg Ebel said that given the “unprecedented demand for power generation across North America,” driven largely by explosive growth in the data center sector, the company expects to unveil more renewable energy projects.

“The policy landscape for renewables is dynamic,” Ebel said, “but we think we are well-positioned with our portfolio of late-stage (projects).”

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