Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

The Woodlands-based Lancium has licensed patents to ERCOT that help increase or decrease power consumption during peak periods or emergencies. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

Woodlands company licenses free patents to ERCOT to boost grid reliability

grid deal

Lancium, a company based in The Woodlands that specializes in infrastructure for connecting large-scale data centers to power grids, is licensing a portfolio of patents to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) at no cost.

In a news release, Lancium says the intellectual property agreement “ensures ERCOT can sublicense these patents freely, thereby expanding market participation opportunities without risk of patent infringement disputes.”

“This agreement exemplifies Lancium’s dedication to supporting grid stability and innovation across the ERCOT region,” Michael McNamara, CEO of Lancium, said in a news release. “While these patents represent significant technological advancements, we believe that enabling ERCOT and its market participants to operate freely is more valuable for the long-term reliability and resilience of the Texas grid.”

The licensed patents encompass Lancium technologies that support load resources in ERCOT’s market, which covers about 90 percent of Texas. Specifically, the patents deal with controllable load resources. A controlled load resource allows ERCOT and other grids to increase or decrease power consumption during peak periods or emergencies.

ERCOT predicts power demand in Texas will nearly double by 2030, “in part due to more requests to plug into the grid from large users like data centers, crypto mining facilities, hydrogen production plants, and oil and gas companies,” The Texas Tribune reported.

What is the future of "the fifth utility"? Getty Images

Experts on U.S. energy infrastructure, sustainability, and the future of data

Guest column

Digital infrastructure is the dominant theme in energy and infrastructure, real estate and technology markets.

Data, the byproduct and primary value generated by digital infrastructure, is referred to as “the fifth utility,” along with water, gas, electricity and telecommunications. Data is created, aggregated, stored, transmitted, shared, traded and sold. Data requires data centers. Data centers require energy. The United States is home to approximately 40% of the world's data centers. The U.S. is set to lead the world in digital infrastructure advancement and has an opportunity to lead on energy for a very long time.

Data centers consume vast amounts of electricity due to their computational and cooling requirements. According to the United States Department of Energy, data centers consume “10 to 50 times the energy per floor space of a typical commercial office building.” Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory issued a report in December 2024 stating that U.S. data center energy use reached 176 TWh by 2023, “representing 4.4% of total U.S. electricity consumption.” This percentage will increase significantly with near-term investment into high performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI). The markets recognize the need for digital infrastructure build-out and, developers, engineers, investors and asset owners are responding at an incredible clip.

However, the energy demands required to meet this digital load growth pose significant challenges to the U.S. power grid. Reliability and cost-efficiency have been, and will continue to be, two non-negotiable priorities of the legal, regulatory and quasi-regulatory regime overlaying the U.S. power grid.

Maintaining and improving reliability requires physical solutions. The grid must be perfectly balanced, with neither too little nor too much electricity at any given time. Specifically, new-build, physical power generation and transmission (a topic worthy of another article) projects must be built. To be sure, innovative financial products such as virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs), hedges, environmental attributes, and other offtake strategies have been, and will continue to be, critical to growing the U.S. renewable energy markets and facilitating the energy transition, but the U.S. electrical grid needs to generate and move significantly more electrons to support the digital infrastructure transformation.

But there is now a third permanent priority: sustainability. New power generation over the next decade will include a mix of solar (large and small scale, offsite and onsite), wind and natural gas resources, with existing nuclear power, hydro, biomass, and geothermal remaining important in their respective regions.

Solar, in particular, will grow as a percentage of U.S grid generation. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reported that solar added 50 gigawatts of new capacity to the U.S. grid in 2024, “the largest single year of new capacity added to the grid by an energy technology in over two decades.” Solar is leading, as it can be flexibly sized and sited.

Under-utilized technology such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) will become more prominent. Hydrogen may be a potential game-changer in the medium-to-long-term. Further, a nuclear power renaissance (conventional and small modular reactor (SMR) technologies) appears to be real, with recent commitments from some of the largest companies in the world, led by technology companies. Nuclear is poised to be a part of a “net-zero” future in the United States, also in the medium-to-long term.

The transition from fossil fuels to zero carbon renewable energy is well on its way – this is undeniable – and will continue, regardless of U.S. political and market cycles. Along with reliability and cost efficiency, sustainability has become a permanent third leg of the U.S. power grid stool.

Sustainability is now non-negotiable. Corporate renewable and low carbon energy procurement is strong. State renewable portfolio standards (RPS) and clean energy standards (CES) have established aggressive goals. Domestic manufacturing of the equipment deployed in the U.S. is growing meaningfully and in politically diverse regions of the country. Solar, wind and batteries are increasing less expensive. But, perhaps more importantly, the grid needs as much renewable and low carbon power generation as possible - not in lieu of gas generation, but as an increasingly growing pairing with gas and other technologies. This is not an “R” or “D” issue (as we say in Washington), and it's not an “either, or” issue, it's good business and a physical necessity.

As a result, solar, wind and battery storage deployment, in particular, will continue to accelerate in the U.S. These clean technologies will inevitably become more efficient as the buildout in the U.S. increases, investments continue and technology advances.

At some point in the future (it won’t be in the 2020s, it could be in the 2030s, but, more realistically, in the 2040s), the U.S. will have achieved the remarkable – a truly modern (if not entirely overhauled) grid dependent largely on a mix of zero and low carbon power generation and storage technology. And when this happens, it will have been due in large part to the clean technology deployment and advances over the next 10 to 15 years resulting from the current digital infrastructure boom.

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Hans Dyke and Gabbie Hindera are lawyers at Bracewell. Dyke's experience includes transactions in the electric power and oil and gas midstream space, as well as transactions involving energy intensive industries such as data storage. Hindera focuses on mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, and public and private capital market offerings.

Baker Hughes has teamed up with Dallas-based Frontier Infrastructure and has been selected by the U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense for global clean energy projects. Photo via bakerhughes.com.

Baker Hughes launches major clean energy initiatives with U.S. military and more

clean team

Energy tech company Baker Hughes announced two major clean energy initiatives this month.

The Houston-based company has teamed up with Dallas-based Frontier Infrastructure to develop carbon capture and storage (CCS), power generation and data center operations in the U.S.

Baker Hughes will supply technology for Frontier’s nearly 100,000-acre CCS hub in Wyoming, which will provide open-access CO2 storage for manufacturers and ethanol producers, as well as future Frontier projects. Frontier has already begun drilling activities at the Wyoming site.

“Baker Hughes is committed to delivering innovative solutions that support increasing energy demand, in part driven by the rapid adoption of AI, while ensuring we continue to enable the decarbonization of the industry,” says Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes.

Additionally, Baker Hughes announced this week that it was selected by the U.S. Air Force and the Department of Defense’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) to develop utility-scale geothermal power plants that would power global U.S. military bases.

Baker Hughes was granted an "awardable," or eligible, status through the CDAO's Tradewinds Solutions Marketplace, which aims to accelerate "mission-critical technologies," including AI, machine learning and resilient energy technologies. The potential geothermal plants would provide cost-effective electricity, even during a grid outage.

“The ability of geothermal to provide reliable, secure baseload power makes it an ideal addition to America’s energy mix,” Ajit Menon, vice president of geothermal, oilfield services and equipment at Baker Hughes, said in a news release. “Baker Hughes has been a pioneer in this field for more than 40 years and our unique subsurface-to-surface expertise and advanced technology across the geothermal value chain will help the U.S. military unlock this critical domestic energy source, while simultaneously driving economic growth and energy independence.”

D.C.-based Last Energy plans to bring 30 micro-nuclear reactors in Texas online within the next two years. Rending courtesy Last Energy.

Energy co. to build 30 micro-nuclear reactors in Texas to meet rising demand

going nuclear

A Washington, D.C.-based developer of micro-nuclear technology plans to build 30 micro-nuclear reactors near Abilene to address the rising demand for electricity to operate data centers across Texas.

The company, Last Energy, is seeking permission from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build the microreactors on a more than 200-acre site in Haskell County, about 60 miles north of Abilene.

The privately financed microreactors are expected to go online within roughly two years. They would be connected to ERCOT’s power grid, which serves the bulk of Texas.

“Texas is America’s undisputed energy leader, but skyrocketing population growth and data center development is forcing policymakers, customers, and energy providers to embrace new technologies,” says Bret Kugelmass, founder and CEO of Last Energy.

“Nuclear power is the most effective way to meet Texas’ demand, but our solution—plug-and-play microreactors, designed for scalability and siting flexibility—is the best way to meet it quickly,” Kugelmass adds. “Texas is a state that recognizes energy is a precondition for prosperity, and Last Energy is excited to contribute to that mission.”

Texas is home to more than 340 data centers, according to Perceptive Power Infrastructure. These centers consume nearly 8 gigawatts of power and make up 9 percent of the state’s power demand.

Data centers are one of the most energy-intensive building types, says to the U.S. Department of Energy, and account for approximately 2 percent of the total U.S. electricity use.

Microreactors are 100 to 1,000 times smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, according to the Idaho National Laboratory. Yet each Last Energy microreactor can produce 20 megawatts of thermal energy.

Before announcing the 30 proposed microreactors to be located near Abilene, Last Energy built two full-scale prototypes in Texas in tandem with manufacturing partners. The company has also held demonstration events in Texas, including at CERAWeek 2024 in Houston. Last Energy, founded in 2019, is a founding member of the Texas Nuclear Alliance.

“Texas is the energy capital of America, and we are working to be No. 1 in advanced nuclear power,” Governor Greg Abbott said in a statement. “Last Energy’s microreactor project in Haskell County will help fulfill the state’s growing data center demand. Texas must become a national leader in advanced nuclear energy. By working together with industry leaders like Last Energy, we will usher in a nuclear power renaissance in the United States.”

Nuclear energy is not a major source of power in Texas. In 2023, the state’s two nuclear power plants generated about 7% of the state’s electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Texas gains most of its electricity from natural gas, coal, wind, and solar.

A new joint venture will work on four projects supplying 5 gigawatts of power from combined-cycle power plants for the ERCOT and PJM Interconnection grids. Photo via Getty Images.

NRG Energy forms joint venture to build power plants for ERCOT and AI-driven demand

teaming up

Houston-based power provider NRG Energy Inc. has formed a joint venture with two other companies to meet escalating demand for electricity to fuel the rise of data centers and the evolution of generative AI.

NRG’s partners in the joint venture are GE Vernova, a provider of renewable energy equipment and services, and TIC – The Industrial Co., a subsidiary of construction and engineering company Kiewit.

“The growing demand for electricity in part due to GenAI and the buildup of data centers means we need to form new, innovative partnerships to quickly increase America’s dispatchable generation,” Robert Gaudette, head of NRG Business and Wholesale Operations, said in a news release. “Working together, these three industry leaders are committed to executing with speed and excellence to meet our customers’ generation needs.”

Initially, the joint venture will work on four projects supplying 5 gigawatts of power from combined-cycle power plants, which uses a combination of natural gas and steam turbines that produce additional electricity from natural gas waste. Electricity from these projects will be produced for power grids operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM Interconnection. The projects are scheduled to come online from 2029 through 2032.

The joint venture says the model it’s developing for these four projects is “replicable and scalable,” with the potential for expansion across the U.S.

The company is also developing a new 721-megawatt natural gas combined-cycle unit at its Cedar Bayou plant in Baytown, Texas. Read more here.

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Gold H2 harvests clean hydrogen from depleted California reservoirs in first field trial

breakthrough trial

Houston climatech company Gold H2 completed its first field trial that demonstrates subsurface bio-stimulated hydrogen production, which leverages microbiology and existing infrastructure to produce clean hydrogen.

Gold H2 is a spinoff of another Houston biotech company, Cemvita.

“When we compare our tech to the rest of the stack, I think we blow the competition out of the water," Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon, CEO of Gold H2 Sekhon previously told Energy Capital.

The project represented the first-of-its-kind application of Gold H2’s proprietary biotechnology, which generates hydrogen from depleted oil reservoirs, eliminating the need for new drilling, electrolysis or energy-intensive surface facilities. The Woodlands-based ChampionX LLC served as the oilfield services provider, and the trial was conducted in an oilfield in California’s San Joaquin Basin.

According to the company, Gold H2’s technology could yield up to 250 billion kilograms of low-carbon hydrogen, which is estimated to provide enough clean power to Los Angeles for over 50 years and avoid roughly 1 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent.

“This field trial is tangible proof. We’ve taken a climate liability and turned it into a scalable, low-cost hydrogen solution,” Sekhon said in a news release. “It’s a new blueprint for decarbonization, built for speed, affordability, and global impact.”

Highlights of the trial include:

  • First-ever demonstration of biologically stimulated hydrogen generation at commercial field scale with unprecedented results of 40 percent H2 in the gas stream.
  • Demonstrated how end-of-life oilfield liabilities can be repurposed into hydrogen-producing assets.
  • The trial achieved 400,000 ppm of hydrogen in produced gases, which, according to the company,y is an “unprecedented concentration for a huff-and-puff style operation and a strong indicator of just how robust the process can perform under real-world conditions.”
  • The field trial marked readiness for commercial deployment with targeted hydrogen production costs below $0.50/kg.

“This breakthrough isn’t just a step forward, it’s a leap toward climate impact at scale,” Jillian Evanko, CEO and president at Chart Industries Inc., Gold H2 investor and advisor, added in the release. “By turning depleted oil fields into clean hydrogen generators, Gold H2 has provided a roadmap to produce low-cost, low-carbon energy using the very infrastructure that powered the last century. This changes the game for how the world can decarbonize heavy industry, power grids, and economies, faster and more affordably than we ever thought possible.”

Rice University spinout lands $500K NSF grant to boost chip sustainability

cooler computing

HEXAspec, a spinout from Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, was recently awarded a $500,000 National Science Foundation Partnership for Innovation grant.

The team says it will use the funding to continue enhancing semiconductor chips’ thermal conductivity to boost computing power. According to a release from Rice, HEXAspec has developed breakthrough inorganic fillers that allow graphic processing units (GPUs) to use less water and electricity and generate less heat.

The technology has major implications for the future of computing with AI sustainably.

“With the huge scale of investment in new computing infrastructure, the problem of managing the heat produced by these GPUs and semiconductors has grown exponentially. We’re excited to use this award to further our material to meet the needs of existing and emerging industry partners and unlock a new era of computing,” HEXAspec co-founder Tianshu Zhai said in the release.

HEXAspec was founded by Zhai and Chen-Yang Lin, who both participated in the Rice Innovation Fellows program. A third co-founder, Jing Zhang, also worked as a postdoctoral researcher and a research scientist at Rice, according to HEXAspec's website.

The HEXASpec team won the Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship's H. Albert Napier Rice Launch Challenge in 2024. More recently, it also won this year's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition during CERAWeek in the TEX-E student track, taking home $25,000.

"The grant from the NSF is a game-changer, accelerating the path to market for this transformative technology," Kyle Judah, executive director of Lilie, added in the release.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.