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Houston expert asks: Is the Texas grid ready for the future?

Guets Column

Data centers, EVs, and storms put the Texas grid to the test. Photo courtesy UH.

Texas has spent the past five years racing to strengthen its electric grid after Winter Storm Uri exposed just how vulnerable it was. Billions have gone into new transmission lines, grid hardening, and a surge of renewables and batteries. Those moves have made a difference, we haven’t seen another systemwide blackout like Uri, but the question now isn’t what’s been done, it’s whether Texas can keep up with what’s coming.

Massive data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial projects are driving electricity demand to unprecedented levels. NERC recently boosted its 10-year load forecast for Texas by more than 60%. McKinsey projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise roughly 40% by 2030 and double by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for as much as 11-12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 4% today. Texas, already the top destination for new data centers, will feel that surge at a greater scale.

While the challenges ahead are massive and there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road (some probably big), we have an engaged Texas legislature, capable regulatory bodies, active non-profits, pragmatic industry groups, and the best energy minds in the world working together to make a market-based system work. I am optimistic Texas will find a way.

Why Texas Faces a Unique Grid Challenge

About 90% of Texas is served by a single, independent grid operated by ERCOT, rather than being connected to the two large interstate grids that cover the rest of the country. This structure allows ERCOT to avoid federal oversight of its market design, although it still must comply with FERC reliability standards. The trade-off is limited access to power from neighboring states during emergencies, leaving Texas to rely almost entirely on in-state generation and reserves when extreme weather hits.

ERCOT’s market design is also different. It’s an “energy-only” market, meaning generators are paid for electricity sold, not for keeping capacity available. While that lowers prices in normal times, it also makes it harder to finance backup, dispatchable generation like natural gas and batteries needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining.

The Risks Mounting

In Texas, solar and wind power supply a significant percentage of electricity to the grid. As Julie Cohn, a nonresident scholar at the Baker Institute, explains, these inverter‑based resources “connect through power electronics, which means they don’t provide the same physical signals to the grid that traditional generators do.” The Odessa incidents, where solar farms tripped offline during minor grid disturbances, showed how fragile parts of this evolving grid can be. “Fortunately, it didn’t result in customer outages, and it was a clear signal that Texas has the opportunity to lead in solving this challenge.”

Extreme weather adds more pressure while the grid is trying to adapt to a surge in use. CES research manager Miaomiao Rimmer notes: “Hurricane frequencies haven't increased, but infrastructure and population in their paths have expanded dramatically. The same hurricane that hit 70 years ago would cause far more damage today because there’s simply more in harm’s way.”

Medlock: “Texas has made significant strides in the last 5 years, but there’s more work to be done.”

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, argues that Texas’s problem isn’t a lack of solutions; it’s how quickly those solutions are implemented. He stresses that during the January 2024 cold snap, natural gas kept the grid stable, proving that “any system configuration with sufficient, dispatchable generation capacity would have kept the lights on.” Yet ERCOT load has exceeded dispatchable capacity with growing frequency since 2018, raising the stakes for future reliability.

Ken notes: “ERCOT has a substantial portfolio of options, including investment in dispatchable generation, storage near industrial users, transmission expansion, and siting generation closer to load centers. But allowing structural risks to reliability that can be avoided at a reasonable cost is unacceptable. Appropriate market design and sufficient regulatory oversight are critical.” He emphasizes that reliability must be explicitly priced into ERCOT’s market so backup resources can be built and maintained profitably. These resources, whether natural gas, nuclear, or batteries, cannot remain afterthoughts if Texas wants a stable grid.

Building a More Reliable Grid

For Texas to keep pace with rising demand and withstand severe weather, it must act decisively on multiple fronts, strengthening its grid while building for long-term growth.

  • Coordinated Planning: Align regulators, utilities, and market players to plan decades ahead, not just for next summer.
  • Balancing Clean and Reliable Power: Match renewable growth with flexible, dispatchable generation that can deliver power on demand.
  • Fixing Local Weak Spots: Harden distribution networks, where most outages occur, rather than focusing only on large-scale generation.
  • Market Reform and Technology Investment: Price reliability fairly and support R&D to make renewables strengthen, not destabilize, the grid.

In Conclusion

While Texas has undeniably improved its grid since Winter Storm Uri, surging electricity demand and intensifying weather mean the work is far from over. Unlike other states, ERCOT can’t rely on its neighbors for backup power, and its market structure makes new dispatchable resources harder to build. Decisive leadership, investment, and reforms will be needed to ensure Texas can keep the lights on.

It probably won’t be a smooth journey, but my sense is that Texas will solve these problems and do something spectacular. It will deliver more power with fewer emissions, faster than skeptics believe, and surprise us all.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

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Meta will use electricity generated by one of ENGIE's Texas solar farms to power its U.S. data centers. Photo via engie.com.

Meta to buy all power from new ENGIE Texas solar farm

power purchase

Meta, the parent company of social media platform Facebook, has agreed to buy all of the power from a $900 million solar farm being developed near Abilene by Houston-based energy company ENGIE North America.

The 600-megawatt Swenson Ranch solar farm, located in Stonewall County, will be the largest one ever built in the U.S. by ENGIE. The solar farm is expected to go online in 2027.

Meta will use electricity generated by the solar farm to power its U.S. data centers. All told, Meta has agreed to purchase more than 1.3 gigawatts of renewable energy from four ENGIE projects in Texas.

“This project marks an important step forward in the partnership between our two companies and their shared desire to promote a sustainable and competitive energy model,” Paulo Almirante, ENGIE’s senior executive vice president of renewable and flexible power, said in a news release.

In September, ENGIE North America said it would collaborate with Prometheus Hyperscale, a developer of sustainable liquid-cooled data centers, to build data centers at ENGIE-owned renewable energy and battery storage facilities along the I-35 corridor in Texas. The corridor includes Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Waco.

The first projects under the ENGIE-Prometheus umbrella are expected to go online in 2026.

ENGIE and Prometheus said their partnership “brings together ENGIE's deep expertise in renewables, batteries, and energy management and Prometheus' highly efficient liquid-cooled data center design to meet the growing demand for reliable, sustainable compute capacity — particularly for AI and other high-performance workloads.”
The University of Houston is one of 23 institutions to be awarded DOE funding for fusion research. Photo courtesy UH.

UH lands $8M in federal funding for fusion energy research

fusion funding

The University of Houston will receive $8 million in federal funding from the U.S. Department of Energy for its work on fusion technology to help power data centers and medical work.

Venkat Selvamanickam, professor at UH’s Cullen College of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and director of the Advanced Manufacturing Institute, has been tasked to lead the research on superconducting magnets that he said will make compact fusion reactors possible.

“Beyond fusion, superconductors can transform how we deliver power to data centers, enable highly efficient motors and generators and improve electric power devices,” Selvamanickam said in a news release. “They also enable critical applications such as MRI and proton beam therapy for cancer treatment. I want society to experience the broad benefits this remarkable technology can provide.”

UH is one of 23 institutions selected to share part of $134 million from the DOE’s Fusion Energy Sciences division. The total funding is split across two initiatives: $128 million for the Fusion Innovation Research Engine (FIRE) and $6.1 million for the Innovation Network for Fusion Energy program, according to the university.

UH will partner with the FIRE Collaborative for the research, which looks to understand why superconducting magnets in fusion reactors break down and work on developing solutions to make them more resilient.

“The advantage of fusion is it’s clean and it does not require storage. Solar energy can’t be used at night, and wind energy depends on wind conditions,” Selvamanickam added in the release. “Our goal is to make fusion a truly viable energy source.”

Jarred Shaffer has been named director of the new Texas Advanced Nuclear Energy Office. Photo via LinkedIn.

Policy adviser tapped to lead ‘nuclear renaissance’ in Texas

going nuclear

As Texas places a $350 million bet on nuclear energy, a budget and policy adviser for Gov. Greg Abbott has been tapped to head the newly created Texas Advanced Nuclear Energy Office.

Jarred Shaffer is now director of the nuclear energy office, which administers the $350 million Texas Advanced Nuclear Development Fund. The fund will distribute grants earmarked for the development of more nuclear reactors in Texas.

Abbott said Shaffer’s expertise in energy will help Texas streamline nuclear regulations and guide “direct investments to spur a flourishing and competitive nuclear power industry in the Lone Star State. Texas will lead the nuclear renaissance.”

The Texas Nuclear Alliance says growth of nuclear power in the U.S. has stalled while China and Russia have made significant gains in the nuclear sector.

“As Texas considers its energy future, the time has come to invest in nuclear power — an energy source capable of ensuring grid reliability, economic opportunity, and energy and national security,” Reed Clay, president of the alliance, said.

“Texas is entering a pivotal moment and has a unique opportunity to lead. The rise of artificial intelligence and a rebounding manufacturing base will place unprecedented demands on our electricity infrastructure,” Clay added. “Meeting this moment will require consistent, dependable power, and with our business-friendly climate, streamlined regulatory processes, and energy-savvy workforce, we are well-positioned to become the hub for next-generation nuclear development.”

Abbott’s push for increased reliance on nuclear power in Texas comes as public support for the energy source grows. A 2024 survey commissioned by the Texas Public Policy Institute found 55 percent of Texans support nuclear energy. Nationwide support for nuclear power is even higher. A 2024 survey conducted by Bisconti Research showed a record-high 77 percent of Americans support nuclear energy.

Nuclear power accounted for 7.5 percent of Texas’ electricity as of 2024, according to the Nuclear Energy Institute, but made up a little over 20 percent of the state’s clean energy. Currently, four traditional reactors produce nuclear power at two plants in Texas. The total capacity of the four nuclear reactors is nearly 5,000 megawatts.

Because large nuclear plants take years to license and build, small factory-made modular reactors will meet much of the shorter-term demand for nuclear energy. A small modular reactor has a power capacity of up to 300 megawatts. That’s about one-third of the generating power of a traditional nuclear reactor, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

A report from BofA Global Research predicts the global market for small nuclear reactors could reach $1 trillion by 2050. These reactors are cheaper and safer than their larger counterparts, and take less time to build and produce fewer CO2 emissions, according to the report. Another report, this one from research company Bloomberg Intelligence, says soaring demand for electricity — driven mostly by AI data centers — will fuel a $350 billion boom in nuclear spending in the U.S., boosting output from reactors by 63 percent by 2050.

Global nuclear capacity must triple in size by 2050 to keep up with energy demand tied to the rise of power-gobbling AI data centers, and to accomplish decarbonization and energy security goals, the BofA report says. Data centers could account for nine percent of U.S. electricity demand by 2035, up from about four percent today, according to BloombergNEF.

As the Energy Capital of the World, Houston stands to play a pivotal role in the evolution of small and large nuclear reactors in Texas and around the world. Here are just three of the nuclear power advancements that are happening in and around Houston:

Houston is poised to grab a big chunk of the more than 100,000 jobs and more than $50 billion in economic benefits that Jimmy Glotfelty, a former member of the Texas Public Utility Commission, predicts Texas will gain from the state’s nuclear boom. He said nuclear energy legislation signed into law this year by Abbott will provide “a leg up on every other state” in the race to capitalize on the burgeoning nuclear economy.

“Everybody in the nuclear space would like to build plants here in Texas,” Inside Climate News quoted Glotfelty as saying. “We are the low-regulatory, low-cost state. We have the supply chain. We have the labor.”
A team of Rice University researchers has found a way to convert data center waste into clean power using rooftop solar collectors. Photo courtesy Rice University.

Rice University team finds economical way to recycle data center heat into power

waste not

As data centers expand, their energy demands rise as well. Researchers at Rice University have discovered a way to capture low-temperature waste heat from data centers and convert it back into usable power.

The team has introduced a novel solar thermal-boosted organic Rankine cycle (ORC)—a power system that uses a safe working fluid to make electricity from heat. The design incorporates low-cost rooftop flat-plate solar collectors, which warm the data center’s coolant stream before it enters the ORC. The findings, published in Solar Energy, show that the additional “solar bump” helps surpass the technical roadblocks with data center waste, which has typically been too cool to generate power on its own.

The research was supported by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy LLC, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the U.S. Department of Energy.

“There’s an invisible river of warm air flowing out of data centers,” Laura Schaefer, the Burton J. and Ann M. McMurtry Chair of Mechanical Engineering at Rice and co-author of the paper, said in a news release. “Our question was: Can we nudge that heat to a slightly higher temperature with sunlight and convert a lot more of it into electricity? The answer is yes, and it’s economically compelling.”

Traditionally, electric heat pumps have been used to raise temperatures before recovery, but the benefits were limited because the pumps consumed significant extra power.

Kashif Liaqat, a graduate student in mechanical engineering at Rice, and Schaefer achieved a "temperature lift” by using solar energy to create thermoeconomic models. They modeled affordable, low-profile rooftop solar collectors that fed into an ORC and tied into a liquid-cooling loop. The collectors were validated against industry tools and tested at some of America’s largest data center hubs in Ashburn, Virginia, and Los Angeles, which provided varying climate challenges.

The system recovered 60 percent to 80 percent more electricity annually from the same waste heat, with a 60 percent boost in Ashburn and an 80 percent boost in Los Angeles, according to Rice. It also achieved over 8 percent higher ORC efficiency during peak hours, and an increase in annual average efficiency. The approach also lowered the cost of electricity from the recovered power by 5.5 percent in Ashburn and by 16.5 percent in Los Angeles.

“What the industry considers a weakness becomes a strength once you add solar,” Liaqat said in a news release. “That’s great news for modern data centers.”

Next up, the team will look to pilot its hybrid system in operational sites and explore thermal storage, which the researchers hope could bank solar heat during the day to assist with energy recovery efforts at night.

Hitachi Energy will build a new power transformer factory and plans to manufacture infrastructure for the U.S. electric grid. Photo courtesy Hitachi Energy.

Houston energy company to invest $1B in U.S. electric grid manufacturing

grid boost

Hitachi Energy, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston, has earmarked more than $1 billion to manufacture infrastructure for the U.S. electric grid, which is coping with greater power demand from data centers and AI platforms.

Of that sum, $457 million is dedicated to building a power transformer factory in Virginia. Hitachi Energy said it’ll be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S.

“Power transformers are a linchpin technology for a robust and reliable electric grid and winning the AI race. Bringing production of large power transformers to the U.S. is critical to building a strong domestic supply chain for the U.S. economy and reducing production bottlenecks, which is essential as demand for these transformers across the economy is surging,” said Andreas Schierenbeck, CEO of Switzerland-based Hitachi Energy, which generates revenue of about $16 billion.

The Hitachi announcement aligns with various priorities of the Trump administration. The White House is promoting more U.S.-based manufacturing, more power to accommodate data centers and AI, and greater use of U.S. energy resources.

“If we are going to win the AI race, reindustrialize, and keep the lights on, America is going to need a lot more reliable energy,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.

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Baker Hughes to provide equipment for massive low-carbon ammonia plant

coming soon

Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes has been tapped to supply equipment for what will be the world’s largest low-carbon ammonia plant.

French technology and engineering company Technip Energies will buy a steam turbine generator and compression equipment from Baker Hughes for Blue Point Number One, a $4 billion low-carbon ammonia plant being developed in Louisiana by a joint venture comprising CF Industries, JERA and Mitsui & Co. Technip was awarded a contract worth at least $1.1 billion to provide services for the Blue Point project.

CF, a producer of ammonia and nitrogen, owns a 40 percent stake in the joint venture, with JERA, Japan’s largest power generator, at 35 percent and Mitsui, a Japanese industrial conglomerate, at 25 percent.

The Blue Point Number One project, to be located at CF’s Blue Point ammonia production facility, will be capable of producing about 1.4 million metric tons of low-carbon ammonia per year and permanently storing up to 2.3 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

Construction of the ammonia-making facility is expected to start in 2026, with production of low-carbon ammonia set to get underway in 2029.

“Ammonia, as a lower-carbon energy source, is poised to play a pivotal role in enabling and accelerating global sustainable energy development,” Alessandro Bresciani, senior vice president of energy equipment at Baker Hughes, said in a news release.

Earlier this year, British engineering and industrial gas company Linde signed a long-term contract to supply industrial gases for Blue Point Number One. Linde Engineering Americas is based in Houston.

Houston companies partner to advance industrial carbon capture tech

green team

Carbon Clean and Samsung E&A, both of which maintain their U.S. headquarters in Houston, have formed a partnership to accelerate the global use of industrial carbon capture systems.

Carbon Clean provides industrial carbon capture technology. Samsung E&A offers engineering, construction and procurement services. The companies say their partnership will speed up industrial decarbonization and make carbon capture more accessible for sectors that face challenges in decarbonizing their operations.

Carbon Clean says its fully modular columnless carbon capture unit, known as CycloneCC, is up to 50 percent smaller than traditional units and each "train" can capture up to 100,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.

“Our partnership with Samsung E&A marks a major milestone in scaling industrial carbon capture,” Aniruddha Sharma, chair and CEO of Carbon Clean, said in a news release.

Hong Namkoong, CEO of Samsung E&A, added that the partnership with Carbon Clean will accelerate the global rollout of carbon capture systems that “are efficient, reliable, and ready for the energy transition.”

Carbon Clean and Samsung E&A had previously worked together on carbon capture projects for Aramco, an oil and gas giant, and Modec, a supplier of floating production systems for offshore oil and gas facilities. Aramco’s Americas headquarters is also in Houston, as is Modec’s U.S. headquarters.

Major Houston energy companies join new Carbon Measures coalition

green team

Six companies with a large presence in the Houston area have joined a new coalition of companies pursuing a better way to track the carbon emissions of products they manufacture, purchase and finance.

Houston-area members of the Carbon Measures coalition are:

  • Spring-based ExxonMobil
  • Air Liquide, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston
  • Honeywell, whose Performance Materials and Technologies business is based in Houston.
  • BASF, whose global oilfield solutions business is based in Houston
  • Linde, whose Linde Engineering Americas business is based in Houston

Carbon Measures will create an accounting framework that eliminates double-counting of carbon pollution and attributes emissions to their sources, said Amy Brachio, the group’s CEO. The model is expected to take two years to develop, and between five and seven years to scale up, Bloomberg reported.

The coalition wants to create a system that will “unleash markets and competition,” unlock investments and speed up the pace of emissions reduction, said Brachio, former vice chair of sustainability at professional services firm EY.

“If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it,” said Darren Woods, chairman and CEO of ExxonMobil. “The first step to reducing global emissions is to know where they’re coming from — and today, we don’t have an accurate system to do this.”

Other members of the coalition include BlackRock-owned Global Infrastructure Partners, Banco Satanader, EY and NextEra Energy.

“Transparent and consistent emissions accounting is not just a technical necessity — it’s a strategic imperative. It enables smarter decisions and accelerates real progress across industries and borders,” said Ken West, president and CEO of Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions.

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