grid report

DOE report warns of widespread power blackouts by 2030 amid grid challenges

A new report from the Department of Energy says the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030. Photo via Getty Images.

Scheduled retirements of traditional power plants, dependence on energy sources like wind and solar, and the growth of energy-gobbling data centers put the U.S. — including Texas — at much greater risk of massive power outages just five years from now, a new U.S. Department of Energy report suggests.

The report says the U.S. power grid won’t be able to sustain the combined impact of plant closures, heavy reliance on renewable energy, and the boom in data center construction. As a result, the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030, according to the report.

“The status quo of more [plant] retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability … . Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens,” the report says.

Avoiding planned shutdowns of traditional energy plants, such as those fueled by coal and oil, would improve grid reliability, but a shortfall would still persist in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), particularly during the winter, the report says. ERCOT operates the power grid for the bulk of Texas.

According to the report, 104 gigawatts of U.S. power capacity from traditional plants is set to be phased out by 2030. “This capacity is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis,” says the report, “and losing this generation could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation.”

To meet reliability targets, ERCOT would need 10,500 megawatts of additional “perfect” capacity by 2030, the report says. Perfect capacity refers to maximum power output under ideal conditions.

“ERCOT continues to undergo rapid change, and supply additions will have a difficult time keeping up with demand growth,” Brent Nelson, managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, said in a release earlier this summer. “With scarcity conditions ongoing and weather-dependent, expect a volatile market with boom years and bust years.”

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A View From HETI

Fervo Energy has landed its latest accolade. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy

Houston-based geothermal power company Fervo Energy has notched a three-peat on MIT Technology Review’s annual 10 Climate Tech Companies to Watch List.

“The newly public company is betting that Al’s power boom will help turn enhanced geothermal energy into a scalable reality,” MIT Technology Review says of the three-time honoree.

Fervo went public in May through a $2.2 billion IPO.

Other Fervo recent milestones include:

“We are in the midst of a once-in-a-generation surge in power demand that is likely to dictate the outcome of the American success story in both artificial intelligence and industrial growth, but also the extent to which people have access to affordable, reliable power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder, chairman, president and CEO, said during Fervo’s second-quarter earnings call.

“The stakes have never been higher,” he added, “and I’ve never been more convinced that Fervo is uniquely positioned to meet this moment.”

Also making MIT Technology Review’s fourth annual list were:

  • Greentown Houston alum Energy Dome, based in Milan, Italy. “Energy Dome is using the gas to deliver cheap long-duration energy storage for the grid,” MIT Technology Review says.
  • Greentown Houston alum Moment Energy, based in Vancouver, Canada. “The startup is betting that repurposing — rather than recycling — used EV batteries will help buoy much-needed U.S. supply,” MIT Technology Review says.
  • Greentown Boston member Form Energy, based in Somersville, Massachusetts. It’s a three-time honoree. “Form’s 100-hour batteries could make clean energy more weather-resilient and help power data centers,” MIT Technology Review says.

Greentown Labs is an incubator for climatech and energy startups that's co-located in Houston and Boston. Fervo is also an alum of Greentown Houston.

“Whether early-stage startup or multinational corporation, the businesses we’ve chosen are working on technologies to help us address climate change or adapt to our warming world,” MIT Technology Review says. “There’s an urgent need for these innovators: We must begin to drastically reduce emissions to avoid the deadliest impacts of climate change, while also contending with its harmful effects.”

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