grid report

DOE report warns of widespread power blackouts by 2030 amid grid challenges

A new report from the Department of Energy says the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030. Photo via Getty Images.

Scheduled retirements of traditional power plants, dependence on energy sources like wind and solar, and the growth of energy-gobbling data centers put the U.S. — including Texas — at much greater risk of massive power outages just five years from now, a new U.S. Department of Energy report suggests.

The report says the U.S. power grid won’t be able to sustain the combined impact of plant closures, heavy reliance on renewable energy, and the boom in data center construction. As a result, the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030, according to the report.

“The status quo of more [plant] retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability … . Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens,” the report says.

Avoiding planned shutdowns of traditional energy plants, such as those fueled by coal and oil, would improve grid reliability, but a shortfall would still persist in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), particularly during the winter, the report says. ERCOT operates the power grid for the bulk of Texas.

According to the report, 104 gigawatts of U.S. power capacity from traditional plants is set to be phased out by 2030. “This capacity is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis,” says the report, “and losing this generation could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation.”

To meet reliability targets, ERCOT would need 10,500 megawatts of additional “perfect” capacity by 2030, the report says. Perfect capacity refers to maximum power output under ideal conditions.

“ERCOT continues to undergo rapid change, and supply additions will have a difficult time keeping up with demand growth,” Brent Nelson, managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, said in a release earlier this summer. “With scarcity conditions ongoing and weather-dependent, expect a volatile market with boom years and bust years.”

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A View From HETI

Simon M. King, a Rice University sophomore, served as the first author on a recent study of a new process for recycling lithium-ion batteries. Photo courtesy Rice

Rice University researchers have uncovered a more energy-efficient and faster way to recycle critical minerals from used lithium-ion batteries.

Traditional methods rely on high heat, long processing times and harsh chemicals to recover a small fraction of critical materials from batteries used in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles. However, the team from Rice's Department of Materials Science and Nanoengineering developed a process that uses a water-based solution containing amino chlorides to extract more metals in less time

The team published the findings in a recent edition of the scientific journal Small.

Simon King, a sophomore studying chemical and biomolecular engineering who completed this work as a summer research fellow at the Rice Advanced Materials Institute, served as first author of the study. He worked with corresponding authors Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Engineering, and Sohini Bhattacharyya, a research scientist in Ajayan’s lab.

By using a hydroxylammonium chloride (HACI) solution, the team achieved roughly 65 percent extraction of key battery metals in just one minute at room temperature, according to the study. The efficiencies grew to roughly 75 percent for several metals under longer processing times.

“We were surprised by just how fast the reaction occurs, especially without the involvement of high temperatures,” King said in a news release. “Within the first minute, we’re already seeing the majority of the metal extraction take place.”

By not requiring high temperatures or long reaction times, Rice predicts the process could have a major impact on cost and the environmental impact of lithium battery recycling. Additionally, the water-based HACI solution makes waste handling easier and lowers certain environmental risks.

In addition to extracting the materials, the team went on to demonstrate that the recovered metals could be recycled and reprocessed into new battery materials.

“A big advantage of this system is that it works under relatively mild conditions,” Ajayan added in the release. “That opens the door to more sustainable and scalable recycling technologies.”

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