grid report

DOE report warns of widespread power blackouts by 2030 amid grid challenges

A new report from the Department of Energy says the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030. Photo via Getty Images.

Scheduled retirements of traditional power plants, dependence on energy sources like wind and solar, and the growth of energy-gobbling data centers put the U.S. — including Texas — at much greater risk of massive power outages just five years from now, a new U.S. Department of Energy report suggests.

The report says the U.S. power grid won’t be able to sustain the combined impact of plant closures, heavy reliance on renewable energy, and the boom in data center construction. As a result, the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030, according to the report.

“The status quo of more [plant] retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability … . Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens,” the report says.

Avoiding planned shutdowns of traditional energy plants, such as those fueled by coal and oil, would improve grid reliability, but a shortfall would still persist in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), particularly during the winter, the report says. ERCOT operates the power grid for the bulk of Texas.

According to the report, 104 gigawatts of U.S. power capacity from traditional plants is set to be phased out by 2030. “This capacity is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis,” says the report, “and losing this generation could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation.”

To meet reliability targets, ERCOT would need 10,500 megawatts of additional “perfect” capacity by 2030, the report says. Perfect capacity refers to maximum power output under ideal conditions.

“ERCOT continues to undergo rapid change, and supply additions will have a difficult time keeping up with demand growth,” Brent Nelson, managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, said in a release earlier this summer. “With scarcity conditions ongoing and weather-dependent, expect a volatile market with boom years and bust years.”

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A View From HETI

Daikin has tapped Engie North America to provide clean electricity for its Texas facilities, including the massive Daikin Texas Technology Park. Photo courtesy Daikin.

Japan-based HVAC manufacturer Daikin has struck a five-year deal with Houston-based Engie North America to fully power its Texas facilities with renewable energy.

The deal includes Daikin Texas Technology Park (DTTP), home to the company’s North American headquarters and its largest factory (and one of the largest factories in the world). The more than $500 million, 4.2 million-square-foot campus sits on nearly 500 acres in Waller.

The technology park, which held its grand opening in 2017, combines manufacturing, engineering, logistics, marketing, and sales operations for Amana, Daikin and Goodman HVAC products. Earlier this year, Daikin installed a solar array at DTTP to power its central chiller plant.

Under the new agreement, Daikin will pay Engie North America for clean electricity from the 260-megawatt Impact Solar Farm, located northeast of Dallas-Fort Worth in Lamar County. Engie North America is a subsidiary of French utility company Engie.

The $250 million solar farm, which London-based Lightsource BP started operating in 2021, produces about 450,000 megawatt-hours of solar power each year. Lightsource, which has an office in Austin, develops, finances and operates utility-scale renewable energy projects. Lightsource BP is a subsidiary of energy giant BP, whose North American headquarters is in Houston.

“This initiative represents a major step forward in aligning our operations with Daikin’s long-term sustainability goals,” Mike Knights, senior vice president of procurement at Daikin, said in a release.

Daikin aims to make its DTTP a net-zero factory by 2030.

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