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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright will return to CERAWeek this month, along with dozens of energy executives and innovators. Photos courtesy CERAWeek.

CERAWeek 2026 to bring energy leaders to Houston to discuss tech and geopolitics

where to be

CERAWeek returns this month, March 23-27, and will once again bring leading energy executives and government officials to Houston.

The 44th annual event will again host U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum.

Wright will participate in a plenary session focused on energy policy with Daniel Yergin, conference chair and vice chairman of S&P Global, on March 23. The following day, he will be featured in the Celebrating 10 Years of U.S. LNG reception with Jack Fusso, president and CEO, of Cheniere Energy. Both events are part of the Executive Conference track.

Burgum will participate in a leadership dialogue plenary session with Yergin on March 25. It is also part of the Executive Conference track. Burgum is also chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council, established by President Trump in 2025.

Top energy executives, many of whom are based in Houston, will also be featured prominently at the week-long event. Other speakers include:

  • Bill Blevins, director of grid coordination for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
  • Trevor Best, CEO of Syzygy Plasmonics
  • Marie Contour Carrere, executive director of the Rice Sustainability Institute
  • Ryan DuChanois, co-founder and CEO of Solidec
  • Reginald DesRoches, president of Rice University
  • Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown Labs
  • Jim Fitterling, chair and CEO of Dow Inc.
  • Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp.
  • Renu Katon, chancellor and president of the University of Houston
  • Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips
  • Olivier Le Peuch, CEO of SLB
  • Patrick Pouyanné, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies SE
  • Adrian Tromel, chief innovation officer and interim VP for Innovation at Rice University
  • Bobby Tudor, founder and CEO of Artemis Energy Partners and chairman of HETI
  • Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell plc
  • Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes Co.
  • Mike Wirth, chairman and CEO of Chevron Corp.
  • Jeremy Pitts, managing director of Activate Houston
  • And many others

This year, CERAWeek will center around the theme of Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics.

"Change is inescapable," Yergin said in a news release. "The global energy landscape—and to a large extent the entire global economy—is being fundamentally reshaped by the dual forces of convergence and competition. The race for AI is fusing the energy and technology industries like never before, bringing into sharp relief the need to align energy expansion with sustainable economic growth."

"Yet, the potential for collaboration and innovation is increasingly matched by the risk for collision and conflict in a world marked by geopolitical rivalry, tariffs and fragmented supply chains," he continued. "Reconciling an increasingly complex world with the growing demand for energy that is stable, secure and affordable is a complex reality that CERAWeek 2026 will tackle when global energy leaders meet in Houston."

Key topics of discussion will include:

  • Politics, Economics, Trade and Supply Chains
  • Policy, Regulations and Stakeholders
  • Oil Value Chain
  • Power, Renewables, Generation and Grid
  • AI and Digital
  • Minerals and Mining
  • Electrification Technologies
  • Investment and Financing
  • Chemicals and Materials
  • Business Strategies
  • The Innovation Ecosystem
  • Managing Emissions
  • Low-Carbon Fuels and Mobility
  • Climate and Sustainability
  • Workforce Strategy

The CERAWeek Innovation Agora track, which is the program's deeper dive into technology and innovation, will feature thought leadership on "AI, decarbonization, low carbon fuels, cybersecurity, hydrogen, nuclear, mining and minerals, mobility, automation and more," according to the release.

Agora Hubs will return this year and be divided into three zones: new energies, carbon and climate, and AI. The hubs will feature amphitheater-style sessions and panels. Agora Pods will allow energy startups to showcase their ideas in 20- to 30-minute presentations.

Additionally, CERAWeek will introduce a new program this year on Friday, March 27. Known as Look Forward, it will focus on economics, politics and technology.

See the full agenda for the week here. Find more information and register for the event here.

This are heating up for Fervo. Photo via Fervo Energy

Fervo taps new geothermal site and more energy transition news to know

Trending Topics

Editor's note: We're looking back at the biggest energy transition headlines from the second half of February, including Fervo's hottest well to date and the future of data centers in Texas. Below are the five most-read EnergyCapital stories from February 16-28, 2026.

1. Fervo taps into its hottest-ever geothermal reservoir

Fervo Energy has unlocked multigigawatt potential from a new geothermal energy site. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy.

Things are heating up at Houston-based geothermal power company Fervo Energy. Fervo recently drilled its hottest well so far at a new geothermal site in western Utah. Fewer than 11 days of drilling more than 11,000 feet deep at Project Blanford showed temperatures above 555 degrees Fahrenheit, which exceeds requirements for commercial viability. Fervo used proprietary AI-driven analytics for the test. Continue reading.

2. Texas could topple Virginia as biggest data-center market by 2030, JLL report says

A new report shows the role Texas could play as the data-center sector enters "hyperdrive." Photo via JLL.com.

Everything’s bigger in Texas, they say—and that phrase now applies to the state’s growing data-center presence. A new report from commercial real estate services provider JLL says Texas could overtake Northern Virginia as the world’s largest data-center market by 2030. Northern Virginia is a longtime holder of that title. Continue reading.

3. Texas claims No. 1 spot on new energy resilience report

Texas outpaced the rest of the country in a new energy resilience report, despite grid challenges and rising AI demand. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

A new report by mineral group Texas Royalty Brokers ranks Texas as the No. 1 most energy-resilient state. The study focused on four main sources of electricity in hydroelectric dams, natural gas plants, nuclear reactors and petroleum facilities. Each state was given an Energy Resilience Score based on size and diversity of its power infrastructure, energy production and affordability for residents. Continue reading.

4. Texas' oil and gas foundation could boost its geothermal future, UH says

A new UH white paper says that Texas is poised to lead advanced geothermal due to its oil and gas skills and capacity. Photo via UH.edu.

Equipped with the proper policies and investments, Texas could capitalize on its oil and gas infrastructure and expertise to lead the U.S. in development of advanced geothermal power, a new University of Houston white paper says. Continue reading.

5. HETI leader reflects on four years focused on the energy transition

Jane Stricker reflects on four years at HETI. Courtesy photo

It’s hard to believe only four years have passed since I joined the Greater Houston Partnership to lead the Houston Energy Transition Initiative. We talk about COVID years feeling simultaneously like just yesterday and a lifetime ago, and my time at HETI feels quite similar. The energy and climate landscape has evolved dramatically over the last few years, but one constant has endured…Houston remains at the heart of the energy industry. Continue reading.

TotalEnergies will supply power to Google data centers from two Texas solar farms under development. Photo via totalenergies.us

TotalEnergies to supply solar power to new Google data centers in Texas

power deal

French energy company TotalEnergies, whose U.S. headquarters are in Houston, has signed power purchase agreements to supply 1 gigawatt of solar power for Google data centers in Texas over a 15-year span.

The power will be generated by TotalEnergies’ two solar farms that are being developed in Texas. Construction on the company’s Wichita site (805 megawatt-peak, or MWp) and Mustang Creek site (195 MWp) is scheduled to start in the second quarter of this year.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, U.S. vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a press release that the 1-gigawatt deal “highlights TotalEnergies’ strategy to deliver tailored renewable energy solutions that support the decarbonization goals of digital players, particularly data centers.”

The deal comes after California-based Clearway, in which TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent stake, secured an agreement to supply 1.2 gigawatts of solar power to Google data centers in Texas and other states.

“Supporting a strong, stable, affordable grid is a top priority as we expand our infrastructure,” said Will Conkling, director of clean energy and power at Google. “Our agreement with TotalEnergies adds necessary new generation to the local system, boosting the amount of affordable and reliable power supply available to serve the entire region.”

TotalEnergies maintains a 10-gigawatt-capacity portfolio of onshore solar, wind and battery storage assets in the U.S., including 5 gigawatts in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Other clean energy customers of TotalEnergies include Airbus, Air Liquide, Amazon, LyondellBasell, Merck and Microsoft.

A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
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Houston startup nets new funding to accelerate methane leak detection

fresh funding

Houston climatech startup Aquanta Vision has secured pre-seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its methane leak detection software.

EIC Rose Rock participated in the round, joining investors like Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Chevron Technology Ventures, Ecosphere Ventures, and Odyssey Energy Advisors. The investment follows successful field trials for Aquanta Vision’s optical gas imaging (OGI) detection software, according to the company.

“This investment highlights our shared excitement as our patented novel technology improves detection levels for OGI camera operators,” Babur Ozden, Aquanta Vision’s CEO and founder, said in a news release. “The funding from EIC Rose Rock enables us to strategically accelerate this impact.”

Aquanta Vision’s OGI technology features an automated detection layer through an add-on app that improves methane detectability without requiring new hardware. It installs in minutes, runs locally and provides real-time, in-flight plume visualization for inspections with drone-mounted and handheld cameras.

“We are excited to partner with Aquanta Vision to scale and deploy this world-class technology that enables the energy industry to continue to deliver the secure, reliable and affordable energy that drives the American economy,” David Clouse, managing director of the EIC Rose Rock fund, added in the news release.

The company has partnered with Teledyne Flir and Sierra Olympia, makers of one of the world’s largest deployed fleet of handheld and drone-mounted optical gas imaging cameras used in industrial inspections. AquantaVision is now working with Teledyne Flir’s product team, as well as Sierra Olympia and its OEM partners.

Aquanta Vision has estimated that methane leaks cost the U.S. energy industry billions of dollars each year, with 60 percent of leaks going undetected, and methane leaks accounting for around 10 percent of natural gas's contribution to climate change, according to MIT’s climate portal.

Houston trio lands on Time’s list of 10 most influential energy companies

making an impact

Three companies with headquarters in Houston made Time magazine’s new list of the 10 most influential energy companies.

The unranked list includes:

  • Houston-based oil and gas giant Chevron
  • Houston-based Fervo Energy, a geothermal power provider that just went public in a $1.9 billion IPO
  • Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston

In naming Chevron to the list, Time cites the company’s standing as the only major American oil company operating in Venezuela. Time says Chevron wields “extraordinary power” over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

Despite pressure from the White House on U.S. oil and gas producers to ramp up investments in Venezuela, “Chevron has pumped the brakes, pledging to boost output gradually and not chase price fluctuations,” Time says.

“Chevron has been in Venezuela for over a century,” CEO Mike Wirth told shareholders in January. “We remain committed to leveraging our deep expertise and long-standing partnerships for the benefit of our shareholders and the people of Venezuela.”

Time points out that Fervo sits “at the front of the pack” in generation of geothermal energy. The Houston-based company uses fracking techniques borrowed from the oil and gas industry to create underground hot-rock reservoirs that heat water to generate electricity.

Fervo’s Cape Station in Utah is scheduled to start delivering power to the grid this year. At full capacity of 500 megawatts, it will be the first large-scale commercial geothermal plant in the U.S. Time says another site in Utah, Project Blanford, is Fervo’s hottest well yet, highlighting the potential for harnessing geothermal heat for at-scale clean energy.

“It’s hard to find something that can [deliver] reliable 24/7 energy, that’s carbon-free, and can be constructed in a timely manner,” Fervo CEO Tim Latimer said. “It’s energy without a lot of the compromises.”

Government-owned Saudi Aramco, which last year earned $104.7 billion in profit, not only is a dominant player in the Mideast oil and gas sector, but Time says it holds “global clout in politics and business” that reaches far beyond oilfields. For example, the company finances big projects spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, who chairs Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. These include initiatives in global sports, tourism, and AI.

Baker Hughes teams up with Oklahoma co. to advance geothermal development

geothermal partnership

In recent months, Houston-based energy corporation Baker Hughes has launched multiple partnerships to expand geothermal energy extraction across the United States. The latest, a deal with Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne Inc. (H&P), was announced Wednesday.

As part of the deal, H&P will provide a geothermal-capable land drilling rig, while Baker Hughes will contribute technology and expertise. The rig is expected to be deployed later this year, according to a news release.

“Geothermal energy plays a critical role in meeting growing power demand by providing clean, reliable baseload generation,” Amerino Gatti, executive vice president of oilfield services & equipment for Baker Hughes, said in the release. “This collaboration reflects a deliberate step to move its development in the U.S. from concept to reality. By working together, Baker Hughes and Helmerich & Payne are helping customers advance these critical energy projects with greater confidence and deliver reliable, sustainable power.”

Investment in the geothermal energy sector is currently exploding in the U.S., having grown by at least 1,000 percent just in the last seven years, according to a recent report by Rocky Mountain Institute.

On one hand, only about 1 percent of the American energy grid currently uses geothermal, but on the other, the U.S. holds roughly 25 percent of the world’s geothermal capacity. Harnessing that power becomes even more attractive as conflicts in Russia and Iran continue to hamstring energy markets from those countries and revitalize interest in renewable energy.

Baker Hughes has been at the forefront of the geothermal boom. This new deal with H&P combines H&P’s drilling platform technology with Baker Hughes’s subsurface and energy extraction support technologies.

“This agreement underscores Helmerich & Payne’s commitment to supporting emerging energy opportunities through our drilling technologies and operational expertise,” H&P President and CEO Trey Adams added in the release. “We are pleased to collaborate with Baker Hughes to support the advancement of geothermal development in the United States.”

The deal with H&P is just one of several recent ones Baker Hughes has closed. In March, they announced support for XGS’s geothermal extraction projects in New Mexico, which are being used to meet the increasing demands of data centers in the state. Last May, Fervo Energy selected Baker Hughes to supply equipment for its flagship geothermal project in Utah.

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