DOE report warns of widespread power blackouts by 2030 amid grid challenges

grid report

A new report from the Department of Energy says the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030. Photo via Getty Images.

Scheduled retirements of traditional power plants, dependence on energy sources like wind and solar, and the growth of energy-gobbling data centers put the U.S. — including Texas — at much greater risk of massive power outages just five years from now, a new U.S. Department of Energy report suggests.

The report says the U.S. power grid won’t be able to sustain the combined impact of plant closures, heavy reliance on renewable energy, and the boom in data center construction. As a result, the risk of power blackouts will be 100 times greater in 2030, according to the report.

“The status quo of more [plant] retirements and less dependable replacement generation is neither consistent with winning the AI race and ensuring affordable energy for all Americans, nor with continued grid reliability … . Absent intervention, it is impossible for the nation’s bulk power system to meet the AI growth requirements while maintaining a reliable power grid and keeping energy costs low for our citizens,” the report says.

Avoiding planned shutdowns of traditional energy plants, such as those fueled by coal and oil, would improve grid reliability, but a shortfall would still persist in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), particularly during the winter, the report says. ERCOT operates the power grid for the bulk of Texas.

According to the report, 104 gigawatts of U.S. power capacity from traditional plants is set to be phased out by 2030. “This capacity is not being replaced on a one-to-one basis,” says the report, “and losing this generation could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation.”

To meet reliability targets, ERCOT would need 10,500 megawatts of additional “perfect” capacity by 2030, the report says. Perfect capacity refers to maximum power output under ideal conditions.

“ERCOT continues to undergo rapid change, and supply additions will have a difficult time keeping up with demand growth,” Brent Nelson, managing director of markets and strategy at Ascend Analytics, a provider of data and analytics for the energy sector, said in a release earlier this summer. “With scarcity conditions ongoing and weather-dependent, expect a volatile market with boom years and bust years.”

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A new study puts Texas at No. 2 among the states most at risk for power outages this summer. Photo via Getty Images

Texas plugs in among states at highest risk for summer power outages in 2025

by the numbers

Warning: Houston could be in for an especially uncomfortable summer.

A new study from solar energy company Wolf River Electric puts Texas at No. 2 among the states most at risk for power outages this summer. Michigan tops the list.

Wolf River Electric analyzed the number of large-scale outages that left more than 5,000 utility customers, including homes, stores and schools, without summertime electricity from 2019 to 2023. During that period, Texas experienced 7,164 summertime power outages.

Despite Michigan being hit with more summertime outages, Texas led the list of states with the most hours of summertime power outages — an annual average of 35,440. That works out to 1,477 days. “This means power cuts in Texas tend to last longer, making summer especially tough for residents and businesses,” the study says.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the electric grid serving 90 percent of the state, predicts its system will set a monthly record for peak demand this August — 85,759 megawatts. That would exceed the current record of 85,508 megawatts, dating back to August 2023.

In 2025, natural gas will account for 37.7 percent of ERCOT’s summertime power-generating capacity, followed by wind (22.9 percent) and solar (19 percent), according to an ERCOT fact sheet.

This year, ERCOT expects four months to surpass peak demand of 80,000 megawatts:

June 2025 — 82,243 megawatts
July 2025 — 84,103 megawatts
August 2025 — 85,759 megawatts
September 2025 — 80,773 megawatts

One megawatt is enough power to serve about 250 residential customers amid peak demand, according to ERCOT. Using that figure, the projected peak of 85,759 megawatts in August would supply enough power to serve more than 21.4 million residential customers in Texas.

Data centers, artificial intelligence and population growth are driving up power demand in Texas, straining the ERCOT grid. In January, ERCOT laid out a nearly $33 billion plan to boost power transmission capabilities in its service area.

CenterPoint has partnered with Atlanta-based Osmose and Australia-based Neara to use AI-powered predictive modeling to inform decisions on restorations and risk. Photo via Getty Images

CenterPoint partners with AI and infrastructure companies to boost reliability

power partnership

Houston utilities giant CenterPoint is partnering with companies from Atlanta and Australia to use AI to increase data accuracy and strengthen the power grid.

The partnership is part of a collaboration between AI-powered predictive modeling platform company Neara and utility infrastructure asset assessment solutions company Osmose, according to a news release.

Last year, CenterPoint Energy announced an agreement with Neara for engineering-grade simulations and analytics and to deploy Neara’s AI capabilities across CenterPoint’s Greater Houston service area. Now, Neaera will work with Osmose to give energy providers like CenterPoint more up-to-date data to inform decisions on restorations and risks.

CenterPoint Energy is already using the partnership's tools to improve network reliability and enhance its storm preparedness.

"At CenterPoint Energy, we are focused every day on building the most resilient coastal grid in the nation and increasing the resiliency of the communities we are privileged to serve," Eric Easton, VP of Grid Transformation at CenterPoint Energy, said in a news release.

According to Osmose, its services to CenterPoint can result in repair cost savings of up to 70 percent and boost restoration times by up to 80 percent. Osmose also said its services assist with being 25 percent better at ensuring the most critical repairs happen first.

"By integrating Neara's AI-driven modeling with our industry-leading field services, we're giving utilities a powerful tool to make smarter, more data-driven decisions," Mike Adams, CEO of Osmose, said in a news release. "Accurate asset data is the foundation for a resilient grid, and this partnership provides the precision needed to maximize reliability and performance."

Ultimately, the companies say the partnership aims to help minimize disruptions and improve reliability for CenterPoint customers.

"As we work to leverage technology to deliver better outcomes for our customers, we're continuing to enhance our advanced modeling capabilities, which includes collaborating with cutting-edge technology providers like Neara and Osmose,” Easton added in the release.

D.C.-based Last Energy plans to bring 30 micro-nuclear reactors in Texas online within the next two years. Rending courtesy Last Energy.

Energy co. to build 30 micro-nuclear reactors in Texas to meet rising demand

going nuclear

A Washington, D.C.-based developer of micro-nuclear technology plans to build 30 micro-nuclear reactors near Abilene to address the rising demand for electricity to operate data centers across Texas.

The company, Last Energy, is seeking permission from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build the microreactors on a more than 200-acre site in Haskell County, about 60 miles north of Abilene.

The privately financed microreactors are expected to go online within roughly two years. They would be connected to ERCOT’s power grid, which serves the bulk of Texas.

“Texas is America’s undisputed energy leader, but skyrocketing population growth and data center development is forcing policymakers, customers, and energy providers to embrace new technologies,” says Bret Kugelmass, founder and CEO of Last Energy.

“Nuclear power is the most effective way to meet Texas’ demand, but our solution—plug-and-play microreactors, designed for scalability and siting flexibility—is the best way to meet it quickly,” Kugelmass adds. “Texas is a state that recognizes energy is a precondition for prosperity, and Last Energy is excited to contribute to that mission.”

Texas is home to more than 340 data centers, according to Perceptive Power Infrastructure. These centers consume nearly 8 gigawatts of power and make up 9 percent of the state’s power demand.

Data centers are one of the most energy-intensive building types, says to the U.S. Department of Energy, and account for approximately 2 percent of the total U.S. electricity use.

Microreactors are 100 to 1,000 times smaller than conventional nuclear reactors, according to the Idaho National Laboratory. Yet each Last Energy microreactor can produce 20 megawatts of thermal energy.

Before announcing the 30 proposed microreactors to be located near Abilene, Last Energy built two full-scale prototypes in Texas in tandem with manufacturing partners. The company has also held demonstration events in Texas, including at CERAWeek 2024 in Houston. Last Energy, founded in 2019, is a founding member of the Texas Nuclear Alliance.

“Texas is the energy capital of America, and we are working to be No. 1 in advanced nuclear power,” Governor Greg Abbott said in a statement. “Last Energy’s microreactor project in Haskell County will help fulfill the state’s growing data center demand. Texas must become a national leader in advanced nuclear energy. By working together with industry leaders like Last Energy, we will usher in a nuclear power renaissance in the United States.”

Nuclear energy is not a major source of power in Texas. In 2023, the state’s two nuclear power plants generated about 7% of the state’s electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Texas gains most of its electricity from natural gas, coal, wind, and solar.

A new coalition of energy leaders wants to “take the Texas grid from good to great." Photo via Getty Images

Houston energy leaders form new coalition to improve Texas power grid

grid tech

A Houston-based coalition that launched this month aims to educate Texas officials about technology designed to shore up the state’s power grid.

The public-private Texas Reliability Coalition says it will promote utility-scale microgrid technology geared toward strengthening the resilience and reliability of the Texas power grid, particularly during extreme weather.

A utility-operated microgrid is a group of interconnected power loads and distributed energy sources that can operate in tandem with or apart from regular power grids, such as the grid run by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Legislation passed in 2023 enables the use of utility-scale microgrid technology in Texas’ deregulated energy market, according to the coalition.

John Elder, executive director of the coalition, says that with the legal framework now in place, the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT need to create rules to establish the Texas marketplace for microgrid technology. The goal, he says, is to “take the Texas grid from good to great” by installing microgrid technology, improving the infrastructure, and strengthening the system — all targeted toward meeting power needs during extreme weather and amid growing demand.

Houston-based CenterPoint Energy will test the utility-scale microgrid technology being promoted by the coalition. In a January 31 filing with the Public Utility Commission, CenterPoint says microgrid technology will be featured in a $36.5 million pilot program that’ll set up an estimated three to five microgrids in the company’s service area. The pilot program is slated to last from 2026 to 2028.

In the public affairs arena, five Houston executives are leading the new reliability commission’s microgrid initiative.

Elder, one of the coalition’s founding members, is president and CEO of Houston-based Acclaim Energy. Other founders include Ember Real Estate Investment & Development, Park Eight Development, and PowerSecure. Ember and Park Eight are based in Houston. Durham, North Carolina-based PowerSecure, which produces microgrid technology, is a subsidiary of energy provider Southern Co.

Aside from Elder, members of the coalition’s board are:

Stewart Black, board secretary of the coalition and vice president of Acclaim Energy’s midstream division
Todd Burrer, president of municipal utility districts at Inframark.
Harry Masterson, managing principal of Ember
Martin Narendorf, former vice president at CenterPoint Energy.

The 1-gigawatt site will be constructed at a cost of approximately $8 billion. Photo courtesy ECL

California co. announces fully sustainable, hydrogen-powered data center in Houston

moving in

The Houston area will soon be home to what's being lauded as the first fully sustainable 1-gigawatt data center on a 600-acres site east of Houston.

Data center-as-a-service company ECL, headquartered in Mountain View, California, announced its plans to build the ECL TerraSite-TX1. Hardware and cloud service company Lambda will serve as its first tenant. Lambda and other AI leaders will get access to necessary space and power for the next wave zero emission innovations.

Phase 1 of TerraSite-TX1 will be complete by summer of 2025 with a cost of approximately $450 million. The 50 megawatt of data center capacity will be utilized by data center cloud and AI cloud operators. The 1-gigawatt site will be constructed at a cost of approximately $8 billion. The funding will come from ECL and financial partners.

ECL Terrasite-TX1 comes at a needed time for Texas with The Electric Reliability Council of Texas stating on June 12 that the state’s power grid needs will grow approximately double by 2030. This is due in part to the growth of data centers and AI. The ECL Terrasite-TX1 is built to help eliminate the stress on the state’s power grid and help facilitate “state-level economic development and growth of the AI industry,” according to a news release.

ECL houston data center The project will span over 600 acres east of Houston. Rendering courtesy ECL

ECL data centers are built to be modular, which allows for expansion in 1-megawatt increments. They are “ built to suit” and delivered in less than 12 months, which is shorter than the industry standard of 36 to 48.

“While others talk about delivering off-grid, hydrogen-powered data centers in five, ten, or 20 years, only ECL is giving the AI industry the space, power, and peace of mind they and their customers need, now,” Yuval Bachar, co-founder and CEO of ECL, says in a news release. “The level of innovation that we have introduced to the market is unprecedented and will serve not only us and our customers but the entire data center industry for decades to come.”

ECL’s ECL-MV1 is the world’s first off-grid, hydrogen-powered modular data center that operates 24/7 with zero emissions, less noise, and a negative water footprint that replenishes water to the community. ECL-MV1 offers a 10x increase in “energy efficiency with a power usage effectiveness of 1.05 and a 7-times improvement in data density per rack, which is ideal for AI high-density demand” according to the release.

“The data center technology committed to by ECL is truly transformative in the industry,” Lambda's Vice President for Data Center Infrastructure Ken Patchett adds. “We believe ECL’s technology could unlock a powerful and eco-conscious foundation for AI advancement. This new infrastructure could give researchers and developers essential computational resources while drastically reducing the environmental impact of AI operations.”

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Houston energy company to invest $1B in U.S. electric grid manufacturing

grid boost

Hitachi Energy, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston, has earmarked more than $1 billion to manufacture infrastructure for the U.S. electric grid, which is coping with greater power demand from data centers and AI platforms.

Of that sum, $457 million is dedicated to building a power transformer factory in Virginia. Hitachi Energy said it’ll be the largest facility of its kind in the U.S.

“Power transformers are a linchpin technology for a robust and reliable electric grid and winning the AI race. Bringing production of large power transformers to the U.S. is critical to building a strong domestic supply chain for the U.S. economy and reducing production bottlenecks, which is essential as demand for these transformers across the economy is surging,” said Andreas Schierenbeck, CEO of Switzerland-based Hitachi Energy, which generates revenue of about $16 billion.

The Hitachi announcement aligns with various priorities of the Trump administration. The White House is promoting more U.S.-based manufacturing, more power to accommodate data centers and AI, and greater use of U.S. energy resources.

“If we are going to win the AI race, reindustrialize, and keep the lights on, America is going to need a lot more reliable energy,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.

Texas still has its best solar days ahead of it, even as federal tax credit sunsets

Guest Column

If you follow energy policy, you already know that Congress repealed the 30% residential solar tax credit. This poses a significant challenge for continued growth in the market. It also provides an opportunity for the industry to grow in a smart, consumer-friendly way. That’s why in Texas, the story is what happens next: The state and the market are continuing to make going solar much simpler, better, and cheaper.

Policies are moving in the right direction. For example, starting this month, a bipartisan permitting reform takes effect that will cut red tape for home solar and batteries. It lets licensed third-party professionals review plans and perform inspections, requires agencies to post standardized rules and fees online, and allows homeowners to start work once those third-party approvals are submitted. It also shifts negligence liability to the third-party reviewer, thereby reducing municipal risk while accelerating safe, code-compliant installs. In plain English: fewer bottlenecks, faster installs, and lower “soft costs.”

As a result, Houston is already piloting the National Renewable Energy Lab’s free SolarAPP+ to auto-approve standard solar designs, which cuts roughly 12 days from typical timelines. Independent analyses estimate that these automated permitting rules could trim rooftop solar costs by thousands. In other words, even small, costless policy changes like this can save you almost as much money as the huge solar tax credit did, and these great reforms are happening all the time, and they make the process much more convenient and reliable.

While Texas is making solar simpler, it’s also helping consumers have a good experience when going solar. As of this month, Texas law now also requires solar salespeople to register with the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation. The same bill standardizes contracts and provides for mandatory disclosures of upfront cost and financing terms. The whole solar industry benefits when customers have a good solar experience. Word of mouth is vital to keeping solar shining.

There's yet another pro-solar Texas law that's also going into effect this month: in addition to SB 1202 (streamlining solar permits) and SB 1036 (regulating solar sales tactics), the legislature is also supporting the dissemination of information about your options when going solar via SB 1697. You can read more about these three brand-new pro-solar state laws here.

The end of the solar tax credit is not the end of the solar industry. Far from it.

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Dori Wolf is Senior Texas Program Associate for Solar United Neighbors, a vendor and neutral nonprofit with more than 15 years helping people go solar. Their free Solar Help Desk walks you through the details. Also check out their Go Solar Guide and Solar Owner’s Manual.

Solar United Neighbors also helps you find the best retail electricity plan through its partnership with Texas Power Guide.

Sunnova assets officially sold as founder launches new Houston energy startup

solar shift

Solaris Assets has completed its acquisition of the majority of Sunnova Energy International’s residential solar assets. Houston-based Sunnova filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this summer after piling up billions of dollars in debt.

Meanwhile, Sunnova founder and former CEO John Berger has launched a Houston-based home energy services startup, Otovo USA, which just received more than $4 million in seed funding.

Solaris now owns Sunnova’s residential solar services platform and its solar generation and storage portfolio, along with leases, loans and power purchase agreements. Sunnova’s operations are being shifted to SunStrong Management, an Austin-based asset manager for the renewable energy sector.

“By bringing together SunStrong’s asset management expertise with Sunnova’s nationally scaled customer base, we are creating a stronger, more capable leader in the solar industry,” Brendon Merkley, CEO of SunStrong, said in a news release. “Our priority is to maintain the highest levels of service for customers as we expand our footprint as a premier solar asset servicer.”

In June, Sunnova sold its new-home business to homebuilder Lennar for $15.2 million and sold certain assets to investment firm Atlas SP Partners for $15 million.

As of December, Sunnova’s debt totaled nearly $10.7 billion, Reuters reported. Sunnova faced numerous challenges in its quest to survive, including higher interest rates, the reduction of solar incentives in California, and a shakeup in federal subsidies for renewable energy.

Sunnova filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June. A month later, a bankruptcy judge approved the court-supervised sale of Sunnova. Solaris’ acquisition of Sunnova closed Sept. 3.

As SunStrong absorbs the bulk of Sunnova’s assets, Berger — who quit in March as Sunnova’s CEO — has formed a new business. He’s now the founder and CEO of Otovo USA, a partner of European residential power company Otovo.

Otovo USA offers solar power systems, solar batteries, standby generators, EV chargers, electric-load managers, and other power generation and management systems. Otovo’s AI-supported offerings are now available in Texas; the company plans to expand nationwide.

Otovo USA raised its seed funding from the EIC Rose Rock Venture Fund, which invests in energy startups.

“Otovo USA is here to help the millions of Americans with home energy services that are fed up with the complexities of warranties, juggling multiple vendors, and long repair times,” Berger said. The startup, he added, “is bringing customers what they really need: reliable power and a single partner accountable for keeping it up and running. It’s your power, backed by ours.”

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