Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

NRG and Renew Home expect the virtual power plant program to arrive for Texas customers in spring of 2025. Photo via Getty Images

NRG Energy partners to launch Texas' largest AI-powered virtual power plant

dream team

NRG Energy is partnering with a virtual power plant company to distribute hundreds of thousands of VPP-enabled smart thermostats by 2035 in an overall effort to improve the Texas grid's resiliency and help households manage and lower their energy costs.

Renew Home will create a nearly 1 gigawatt AI-powered VPP, which will be enabled by Google Cloud technology and be the largest AI-enabled VPP in Texas. NRG and Renew Home expect the VPP program to arrive for Texas customers in spring of 2025.

A 1 gigawatt VPP can deliver a capacity that is equivalent to 200,000 homes during peak demand times. NRG and Renew Home plan to offer Vivint and Nest smart thermostats, which will include professional installation at no cost to eligible customers as part of the goal to build the VPP.

The advanced thermostats can make automatic HVAC adjustments that can help customers shift their energy use to times when electricity is less expensive, and cleaner. The program will combine smart devices, energy intelligence, and AI. The companies expect to add devices like batteries and electric vehicles to the VPP.

“By partnering with industry leaders like Renew Home and Google Cloud, we are set to deliver cutting-edge, AI-driven solutions that will bolster grid resilience and contribute to a more sustainable future,” Rasesh Patel, president of NRG Consumer, says in a news release. “We are excited about the transformative impact this collaboration will have on our customers and the broader energy landscape.”

NRG will also be utilizing the multi-year technology transformation with Google Cloud. NRG will be able to better predict weather conditions, forecast wind and solar generation output, and create predictive pricing models through the use of Google Cloud's data, analytics, and AI technology.

"As we move toward a more sustainable future and face increasing energy demands, Google Cloud recognizes the importance of partnering with innovators like NRG and Renew Home to help transform the consumer energy experience with AI and the best of Google Cloud,” Michael Clark, president - North America at Google Cloud, adds. "Our collaboration will help Texas meet its growing energy demands, and also empower consumers to get more from their energy, smart home, and essential home services in the future.”

Texas reached an unprecedented demand surge of 85 gigawatts in 2023.

“As rapid population growth and weather events create new challenges for meeting demand in ERCOT, VPPs can deliver a reliable, flexible and dispatchable energy resource,” Renew Home CEO Ben Brown continues. “NRG’s commitment to creating a more resilient and sustainable energy future while also making electricity bills more affordable makes them an ideal partner for co-developing this unique VPP program. This initiative raises the bar for future-proofing our electricity infrastructure and delivering cost savings to customers.”

The United States Department of Energy is doling out over $200 million for grid improvements — and one of the largest portions will be coming to Texas. Photo via Getty Images

DOE announces over $60M in federal funding for power grid improvement

show me the money

Texas is getting $60.6 million in federal grants to bolster the state’s frequently taxed power grid.

The funding, announced July 6 by the U.S. Department of Energy, totals over $200 million to be distributed across the country. The Lone Star State's chunk will be earmarked for pinpointing gaps in the grid’s dependability and reducing weather-related grid disruptions. The Texas Division of Energy Management will decide how to dole out the money.

“By itself, is $60 million going to be determinative to make our grid reliable? Of course not,” Doug Lewin, president of Austin-based energy consulting firm Stoic Energy, tells the Austin American-Statesman. “It’ll cost more than that, but every bit counts, and $60 million is not a small amount of money, so [the state] could probably do a lot of good with that.”

The Texas grid infamously came under intense scrutiny in February 2021 during and after the statewide deep freeze. The cold snap caused power plants and natural gas facilities to fail, leading to blackouts around the state and at least 200 deaths.

The February 2021 disaster “exposed the inability of the state’s energy supply chain to withstand extremely cold temperatures,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas observes. The bank adds that “questions remain whether the electrical grid is now more resilient to winter weather.”

Although the grid has held up during this year’s heat wave, some observers wonder how long the grid can handle record-setting demand and still keep the lights (and air conditioning) on. So far, an abundance of wind and solar power has rescued Texas from the same fate that crippled the state in February 2021.

All eyes then and now are on the quasi-governmental Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which delivers power to about 90 percent of the state.

Since ERCOT’s winter debacle two years ago, state officials have beefed up weatherization requirements for power generation, power transmission, and natural gas facilities. Meanwhile, ERCOT underwent a management overhaul and bumped up its backup supply of thermal power.

During the state legislative session in 2021, a measure that would have earmarked $2 billion for weatherization of Texas power facilities passed in the House but stalled in the Senate.

This year, Texas lawmakers created a fund containing as much as $10 billion for loans and grants to encourage construction and maintenance of gas-fueled power plants. Gov. Greg Abbott signed that bill. But separate legislation that would have set aside billions of dollars to build a network of gas-powered backup plants died in the House.

A report published in 2022 by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy faulted ERCOT for the previous year’s winter chaos but didn’t pin sole blame on the organization. The report recommended better coordination among state regulators regarding the power grid, including potential formation of a state agency dedicated solely to energy issues. Today, the Texas Railroad Commission and Public Utility Commission of Texas largely share oversight of energy matters in the state.

“All forms of generation capacity experienced failures,” says the institute’s report on the 2021 winter catastrophe, “but bureaucratic failure in identifying and addressing risks along fuel supply chains was a major failure.”

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Gold H2 harvests clean hydrogen from depleted California reservoirs in first field trial

breakthrough trial

Houston climatech company Gold H2 completed its first field trial that demonstrates subsurface bio-stimulated hydrogen production, which leverages microbiology and existing infrastructure to produce clean hydrogen.

Gold H2 is a spinoff of another Houston biotech company, Cemvita.

“When we compare our tech to the rest of the stack, I think we blow the competition out of the water," Prabhdeep Singh Sekhon, CEO of Gold H2 Sekhon previously told Energy Capital.

The project represented the first-of-its-kind application of Gold H2’s proprietary biotechnology, which generates hydrogen from depleted oil reservoirs, eliminating the need for new drilling, electrolysis or energy-intensive surface facilities. The Woodlands-based ChampionX LLC served as the oilfield services provider, and the trial was conducted in an oilfield in California’s San Joaquin Basin.

According to the company, Gold H2’s technology could yield up to 250 billion kilograms of low-carbon hydrogen, which is estimated to provide enough clean power to Los Angeles for over 50 years and avoid roughly 1 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent.

“This field trial is tangible proof. We’ve taken a climate liability and turned it into a scalable, low-cost hydrogen solution,” Sekhon said in a news release. “It’s a new blueprint for decarbonization, built for speed, affordability, and global impact.”

Highlights of the trial include:

  • First-ever demonstration of biologically stimulated hydrogen generation at commercial field scale with unprecedented results of 40 percent H2 in the gas stream.
  • Demonstrated how end-of-life oilfield liabilities can be repurposed into hydrogen-producing assets.
  • The trial achieved 400,000 ppm of hydrogen in produced gases, which, according to the company,y is an “unprecedented concentration for a huff-and-puff style operation and a strong indicator of just how robust the process can perform under real-world conditions.”
  • The field trial marked readiness for commercial deployment with targeted hydrogen production costs below $0.50/kg.

“This breakthrough isn’t just a step forward, it’s a leap toward climate impact at scale,” Jillian Evanko, CEO and president at Chart Industries Inc., Gold H2 investor and advisor, added in the release. “By turning depleted oil fields into clean hydrogen generators, Gold H2 has provided a roadmap to produce low-cost, low-carbon energy using the very infrastructure that powered the last century. This changes the game for how the world can decarbonize heavy industry, power grids, and economies, faster and more affordably than we ever thought possible.”

Rice University spinout lands $500K NSF grant to boost chip sustainability

cooler computing

HEXAspec, a spinout from Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, was recently awarded a $500,000 National Science Foundation Partnership for Innovation grant.

The team says it will use the funding to continue enhancing semiconductor chips’ thermal conductivity to boost computing power. According to a release from Rice, HEXAspec has developed breakthrough inorganic fillers that allow graphic processing units (GPUs) to use less water and electricity and generate less heat.

The technology has major implications for the future of computing with AI sustainably.

“With the huge scale of investment in new computing infrastructure, the problem of managing the heat produced by these GPUs and semiconductors has grown exponentially. We’re excited to use this award to further our material to meet the needs of existing and emerging industry partners and unlock a new era of computing,” HEXAspec co-founder Tianshu Zhai said in the release.

HEXAspec was founded by Zhai and Chen-Yang Lin, who both participated in the Rice Innovation Fellows program. A third co-founder, Jing Zhang, also worked as a postdoctoral researcher and a research scientist at Rice, according to HEXAspec's website.

The HEXASpec team won the Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship's H. Albert Napier Rice Launch Challenge in 2024. More recently, it also won this year's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition during CERAWeek in the TEX-E student track, taking home $25,000.

"The grant from the NSF is a game-changer, accelerating the path to market for this transformative technology," Kyle Judah, executive director of Lilie, added in the release.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.