Solar surpasses coal to become ERCOT’s third-largest power source in 2025

by the numbers

Solar represented 14 percent of energy supplied to the ERCOT electric grid in 2025. Photo via bp.com

Solar barely eclipsed coal to become the third biggest source of energy generated for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) in 2025, according to new data.

In 2024, solar represented 10 percent of energy supplied to the ERCOT electric grid. Last year, that number climbed to 14 percent. During the same period, coal’s share remained at 13 percent.

From the largest to smallest share, here’s the breakdown of other ERCOT energy sources in 2025 compared with 2024:

Combined-cycle gas: 33 percent, down from 35 percent in 2024
Wind: 23 percent, down from 24 percent in 2024
Natural gas: 8 percent, down from 9 percent in 2024
Nuclear: 8 percent, unchanged from 2024
Other sources: 1 percent, unchanged from 2024

Combined, solar and wind accounted for 37 percent of ERCOT energy sources.

Looking ahead, solar promises to reign as the star of the ERCOT show:

An ERCOT report released in December 2024 said solar is on track to continue outpacing other energy sources in terms of growth of installed generating capacity, followed by battery energy storage.
In December, ERCOT reported that more than 11,100 megawatts of new generating capacity had been added to its grid since the previous winter. One megawatt of electricity serves about 250 homes in peak-demand periods. Battery energy storage made up 47 percent of the new capacity, with solar in second place at 40 percent.

The mix of ERCOT’s energy is critical to Texas’ growing need for electricity, as ERCOT manages about 90 percent of the electric load for the state, including the Houston metro area. Data centers, AI and population growth are driving heightened demand for electricity.

In the first nine months of 2025, Texas added a nation-leading 7.4 gigawatts of solar capacity, according to a report from data and analytics firm Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association.

“Remarkable growth in Texas, Indiana, Utah and other states ... shows just how decisively the market is moving toward solar,” says Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the solar association.

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Texas leaned heavily on clean energy in 2025. Photo via Pexels

Energy expert: What 2025 revealed about the evolution of Texas power

guest column

2025 marked a pivotal year for Texas’ energy ecosystem. Rising demand, accelerating renewable integration, tightening reserve margins and growing industrial load reshaped the way policymakers, utilities and the broader market think about reliability.

This wasn’t just another year of operational challenges; it was a clear signal that the state is entering an era where growth and innovation must move together in unison if Texas is going to keep pace.

What happened in 2025 is already influencing the decisions utilities, regulators and large energy consumers will make in 2026 and beyond. If Texas is going to remain the nation’s proving ground for large-scale energy innovation, this year made one thing clear: we need every tool working together and working smarter.

What changed: Grid, policy & the growth of renewables

This year, ERCOT recorded one of the steepest demand increases in its history. From January through September 2025, electricity consumption reached 372 terawatt-hours (TWh), a 5 percent increase over the previous year and a 23 percent jump since 2021. That growth officially positions ERCOT as the fastest-expanding large grid in the country.

To meet this rising load, Texas leaned heavily on clean energy. Solar, wind and battery storage served approximately 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity needs over the first nine months of the year, a milestone that showcased how quickly Texas has diversified its generation mix. Utility-scale solar surged to 45 TWh, up 50 percent year-over-year, while wind generation reached 87 TWh, a 36 percent increase since 2021.

Battery storage also proved its value. What was once niche is now essential: storage helped shift mid-day excess solar to evening peaks, especially during a historic week in early spring when Texas hit new highs for simultaneous wind, solar and battery output.

Still, natural gas remained the backbone of reliability. Dispatchable thermal resources supplied more than 50 percent of ERCOT’s power 92 percent of the time in Q3 2025. That dual structure of fast-growing renewables backed by firm gas generation is now the defining characteristic of Texas’s energy identity.

But growth cuts both ways. Intermittent generation is up, yet demand is rising faster. Storage is scaling, but not quite at the rate required to fill the evening reliability gap. And while new clean-energy projects are coming online rapidly, the reality of rising population, data center growth, electrification and heavy industrial expansion continues to outpace the additions.

A recent forecast from the Texas Legislative Study Group projects demand could climb another 14 percent by mid-2026, tightening reserve margins unless meaningful additions in capacity, or smarter systemwide usage, arrive soon.

What 2025 meant for the energy ecosystem

The challenges of 2025 pushed Texas to rethink reliability as a shared responsibility between grid operators, generation companies, large load customers, policymakers and consumers. The year underscored several realities:

1. The grid is becoming increasingly weather-dependent. Solar thrives in summer; wind dominates in spring and winter. But extreme heat waves and cold snaps also push demand to unprecedented levels. Reliability now hinges on planning for volatility, not just averages.

2. Infrastructure is straining under rapid load growth. The grid handled multiple stress events in 2025, but it required decisive coordination and emerging technologies, such as storage methods, to do so.

3. Innovation is no longer optional. Advanced forecasting, grid-scale batteries, demand flexibility tools, and hybrid renewable-gas portfolios are now essential components of grid stability.

4. Data centers and industrial electrification are changing the game. Large flexible loads present both a challenge and an opportunity. With proper coordination, they can help stabilize the grid. Without it, they can exacerbate conditions of scarcity.

Texas can meet these challenges, but only with intentional leadership and strong public-private collaboration.

The system-level wins of 2025

Despite volatility, 2025 showcased meaningful progress:

Renewables proved their reliability role. Hitting 36 percent of ERCOT’s generation mix for three consecutive quarters demonstrates that wind, solar and batteries are no longer supplemental — they’re foundational.

Storage emerged as a real asset for reliability. Battery deployments doubled their discharge records in early 2025, showing the potential of short-duration storage during peak periods.

The dual model works when balanced wisely. Natural gas continues to provide firm reliability during low-renewable hours. When paired with renewable growth, Texas gains resilience without sacrificing affordability.

Energy literacy increased across the ecosystem. Communities, utilities and even industrial facilities are paying closer attention to how loads, pricing signals, weather and grid conditions interact—a necessary cultural shift in a fast-changing market.

Where Texas goes in 2026

Texas heads into 2026 with several unmistakable trends shaping the road ahead. Rate adjustments will continue as utilities like CenterPoint request cost recovery to strengthen infrastructure, modernize outdated equipment and add the capacity needed to handle record-breaking growth in load.

At the same time, weather-driven demand is expected to stay unpredictable. While summer peaks will almost certainly set new records, winter is quickly becoming the bigger wild card, especially as natural gas prices and heating demand increasingly drive both reliability planning and consumer stress.

Alongside these pressures, distributed energy is set for real expansion. Rooftop solar, community battery systems and hybrid generation-storage setups are no longer niche upgrades; they’re quickly becoming meaningful grid assets that help support reliability at scale.

And underlying all of this is a cultural shift toward energy literacy. The utilities, regulators, businesses, and institutions that understand load flexibility, pricing signals and efficiency strategies will be the ones best positioned to manage costs and strengthen the grid. In a market that’s evolving this fast, knowing how we use energy matters just as much as knowing how much.

The big picture: 2025 as a blueprint for a resilient future

If 2025 showed us anything, it’s that Texas can scale innovation at a pace few states can match. We saw record renewable output, historic storage milestones and strong thermal performance during strain events. The Texas grid endured significant stress but maintained operational integrity.

But it also showed that reliability isn’t a static achievement; it’s a moving target. As population growth, AI and industrial electrification and weather extremes intensify, Texas must evolve from a reactive posture to a proactive one.

The encouraging part is that Texas has the tools, the talent and the market structure to build one of the most resilient and future-ready power ecosystems in the world. The test ahead isn’t whether we can generate enough power; it’s whether we can coordinate systems, technologies and market behavior fast enough to meet the moment.

And in 2026, that coordination is precisely where the opportunity lies.

———

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Reliant is offering new incentives to boost NRG's virtual power plant network in Texas. Photo via goodleap.com.

Reliant partners to expand Texas virtual power plant and home battery use

energy incentives

Houston’s Reliant and San Francisco tech company GoodLeap are teaming up to bolster residential battery participation and accelerate the growth of NRG’s virtual power plant (VPP) network in Texas.

Through the new partnership, eligible Reliant customers can either lease a battery or enter into a power purchase agreement with GoodLeap through its GoodGrid program, which incentivizes users by offering monthly performance-based rewards for contributing stored power to the grid. Through the Reliant GoodLeap VPP Battery Program, customers will start earning $40 per month in rewards from GoodLeap.

“These incentives highlight our commitment to making homeowner battery adoption more accessible, effectively offsetting the cost of the battery and making the upgrade a no-cost addition to their homes,” Dan Lotano, COO at GoodLeap, said in a news release.“We’re proud to work with NRG to unlock the next frontier in distributed energy in Texas. This marks an important step in GoodLeap reaching our nationwide goal of 1.5 GW of managed distributed energy over the next five years.”

Other features of the program include power outage plans, with battery reserves set aside for outage events. The plan also intelligently manages the battery without homeowner interaction.

The partnership comes as Reliant’s parent company, NRG, continues to scale its VPP program. Last year, NRG partnered with California-based Renew Home to distribute hundreds of thousands of VPP-enabled smart thermostats by 2035 in an effort to help households manage and lower their energy costs.

“We started building our VPP with smart thermostats across Texas, and now this partnership with GoodLeap brings home battery storage into our platform,” Mark Parsons, senior vice president and head of Texas energy at NRG, said in a the release. “Each time we add new devices, we’re enabling Texans to unlock new value from their homes, earn rewards and help build a more resilient grid for everyone. This is about giving customers the opportunity to actively participate in the energy transition and receive tangible benefits for themselves and their communities.

CenterPoint customers in the Houston area will pay an extra $1 a month to cover costs of the recently approved $2.9 billion resiliency plan starting next year. Photo via centerpointenergy.com

CenterPoint gets go-ahead for $2.9B upgrade of Houston grid

grid resiliency

Texas utility regulators have given the green light for Houston-based CenterPoint Energy to spend $2.9 billion on strengthening its Houston-area electric grid to better withstand extreme weather.

The cost of the plan is nearly $3 billion below what CenterPoint initially proposed to the Public Utility Commission of Texas.

In early 2025, CenterPoint unveiled a $5.75 billion plan to upgrade its Houston-area power system from 2026 through 2028. But the price tag dropped to $2.9 billion as part of a legal settlement between CenterPoint and cities in the utility’s service area.

Sometime after the first quarter of next year, CenterPoint customers in the Houston area will pay an extra $1 a month for the next three years to cover costs of the resiliency plan. CenterPoint serves 2.9 million customers in a 12-county territory anchored by Houston.

CenterPoint says the plan is part of its “commitment to building the most resilient coastal grid in the country.”

A key to improving CenterPoint’s local grid will be stepping up management of high-risk vegetation (namely trees), which ranks as the leading cause of power outages in the Houston area. CenterPoint says it will “go above and beyond standard vegetation management by implementing an industry-leading three-year trim cycle,” clearing vegetation from thousands of miles of power lines.

The utility company says its plan aims to prevent Houston-area power outages in case of hurricanes, floods, extreme temperatures, tornadoes, wildfires, winter storms, and other extreme weather events.

CenterPoint says the plan will:

Improve systemwide resilience by 30 percent
Expand the grid’s power-generating capacity. The company expects power demand in the Houston area to grow 2 percent per year for the foreseeable future.
Save about $50 million per year on storm cleanup costs
Avoid outages for more than 500,000 customers in the event of a disaster like last year’s Hurricane Beryl
Provide 130,000 stronger, more storm-resilient utility poles
Put more than 50 percent of the power system underground
Rebuild or upgrade more than 2,200 transmission towers
Modernize 34,500 spans of underground cables

In the Energy Capital of the World, residents “expect and deserve an electric system that is safe, reliable, cost-effective, and resilient when they need it most. We’re determined to deliver just that,” Jason Wells, president and CEO of CenterPoint, said in January.

Data centers, EVs, and storms put the Texas grid to the test. Photo courtesy UH.

Houston expert asks: Is the Texas grid ready for the future?

Guets Column

Texas has spent the past five years racing to strengthen its electric grid after Winter Storm Uri exposed just how vulnerable it was. Billions have gone into new transmission lines, grid hardening, and a surge of renewables and batteries. Those moves have made a difference, we haven’t seen another systemwide blackout like Uri, but the question now isn’t what’s been done, it’s whether Texas can keep up with what’s coming.

Massive data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial projects are driving electricity demand to unprecedented levels. NERC recently boosted its 10-year load forecast for Texas by more than 60%. McKinsey projects that U.S. electricity demand will rise roughly 40% by 2030 and double by 2050, with data centers alone accounting for as much as 11-12% of total U.S. electricity demand by 2030, up from about 4% today. Texas, already the top destination for new data centers, will feel that surge at a greater scale.

While the challenges ahead are massive and there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road (some probably big), we have an engaged Texas legislature, capable regulatory bodies, active non-profits, pragmatic industry groups, and the best energy minds in the world working together to make a market-based system work. I am optimistic Texas will find a way.

Why Texas Faces a Unique Grid Challenge

About 90% of Texas is served by a single, independent grid operated by ERCOT, rather than being connected to the two large interstate grids that cover the rest of the country. This structure allows ERCOT to avoid federal oversight of its market design, although it still must comply with FERC reliability standards. The trade-off is limited access to power from neighboring states during emergencies, leaving Texas to rely almost entirely on in-state generation and reserves when extreme weather hits.

ERCOT’s market design is also different. It’s an “energy-only” market, meaning generators are paid for electricity sold, not for keeping capacity available. While that lowers prices in normal times, it also makes it harder to finance backup, dispatchable generation like natural gas and batteries needed when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining.

The Risks Mounting

In Texas, solar and wind power supply a significant percentage of electricity to the grid. As Julie Cohn, a nonresident scholar at the Baker Institute, explains, these inverter‑based resources “connect through power electronics, which means they don’t provide the same physical signals to the grid that traditional generators do.” The Odessa incidents, where solar farms tripped offline during minor grid disturbances, showed how fragile parts of this evolving grid can be. “Fortunately, it didn’t result in customer outages, and it was a clear signal that Texas has the opportunity to lead in solving this challenge.”

Extreme weather adds more pressure while the grid is trying to adapt to a surge in use. CES research manager Miaomiao Rimmer notes: “Hurricane frequencies haven't increased, but infrastructure and population in their paths have expanded dramatically. The same hurricane that hit 70 years ago would cause far more damage today because there’s simply more in harm’s way.”

Medlock: “Texas has made significant strides in the last 5 years, but there’s more work to be done.”

Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, argues that Texas’s problem isn’t a lack of solutions; it’s how quickly those solutions are implemented. He stresses that during the January 2024 cold snap, natural gas kept the grid stable, proving that “any system configuration with sufficient, dispatchable generation capacity would have kept the lights on.” Yet ERCOT load has exceeded dispatchable capacity with growing frequency since 2018, raising the stakes for future reliability.

Ken notes: “ERCOT has a substantial portfolio of options, including investment in dispatchable generation, storage near industrial users, transmission expansion, and siting generation closer to load centers. But allowing structural risks to reliability that can be avoided at a reasonable cost is unacceptable. Appropriate market design and sufficient regulatory oversight are critical.” He emphasizes that reliability must be explicitly priced into ERCOT’s market so backup resources can be built and maintained profitably. These resources, whether natural gas, nuclear, or batteries, cannot remain afterthoughts if Texas wants a stable grid.

Building a More Reliable Grid

For Texas to keep pace with rising demand and withstand severe weather, it must act decisively on multiple fronts, strengthening its grid while building for long-term growth.

Coordinated Planning: Align regulators, utilities, and market players to plan decades ahead, not just for next summer.
Balancing Clean and Reliable Power: Match renewable growth with flexible, dispatchable generation that can deliver power on demand.
Fixing Local Weak Spots: Harden distribution networks, where most outages occur, rather than focusing only on large-scale generation.
Market Reform and Technology Investment: Price reliability fairly and support R&D to make renewables strengthen, not destabilize, the grid.

In Conclusion

While Texas has undeniably improved its grid since Winter Storm Uri, surging electricity demand and intensifying weather mean the work is far from over. Unlike other states, ERCOT can’t rely on its neighbors for backup power, and its market structure makes new dispatchable resources harder to build. Decisive leadership, investment, and reforms will be needed to ensure Texas can keep the lights on.

It probably won’t be a smooth journey, but my sense is that Texas will solve these problems and do something spectacular. It will deliver more power with fewer emissions, faster than skeptics believe, and surprise us all.

-----------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Last Energy will build a 5-megawatt reactor at the Texas A&M-RELLIS campus. Photo courtesy Last Energy.

Micro-nuclear reactor to launch next year at Texas A&M innovation campus

nuclear pilot

The Texas A&M University System and Last Energy plan to launch a micro-nuclear reactor pilot project next summer at the Texas A&M-RELLIS technology and innovation campus in Bryan.

Washington, D.C.-based Last Energy will build a 5-megawatt reactor that’s a scaled-down version of its 20-megawatt reactor. The micro-reactor initially will aim to demonstrate safety and stability, and test the ability to generate electricity for the grid.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) fast-tracked the project under its New Reactor Pilot Program. The project will mark Last Energy’s first installation of a nuclear reactor in the U.S.

Private funds are paying for the project, which Robert Albritton, chairman of the Texas A&M system’s board of regents, said is “an example of what’s possible when we try to meet the needs of the state and tap into the latest technologies.”

Glenn Hegar, chancellor of the Texas A&M system, said the 5-megawatt reactor is the kind of project the system had in mind when it built the 2,400-acre Texas A&M-RELLIS campus.

The project is “bold, it’s forward-looking, and it brings together private innovation and public research to solve today’s energy challenges,” Hegar said.

As it gears up to build the reactor, Last Energy has secured a land lease at Texas A&M-RELLIS, obtained uranium fuel, and signed an agreement with DOE. Founder and CEO Bret Kugelmass said the project will usher in “the next atomic era.”

In February, John Sharp, chancellor of Texas A&M’s flagship campus, said the university had offered land at Texas A&M-RELLIS to four companies to build small modular nuclear reactors. Power generated by reactors at Texas A&M-RELLIS may someday be supplied to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid.

Also in February, Last Energy announced plans to develop 30 micro-nuclear reactors at a 200-acre site about halfway between Lubbock and Fort Worth.

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Shell partners with UK-based co. for hydrogen electrolyzer pilot

ultra-efficient electrolyzer

Shell Global Solutions International, a subsidiary of Shell, which maintains its U.S. headquarters in Houston, has signed a collaboration agreement with London-based Supercritical Solutions to advance Supercritical’s ultra-efficient hydrogen electrolyzer technology toward a field pilot demonstration.

In the deal, the companies will collaborate on a paid technology feasibility study that will support the evaluation and planning of the pilot demonstration, according to a news release. Supercritical Solutions’ technology aims to deliver high-efficiency renewable hydrogen at a lower cost for the industrial hydrogen market.

"Signing this collaboration agreement with Shell is a major milestone for Supercritical Solutions and an important step on our commercialisation journey,” Luke Tan, co-founder of Supercritical, said in the news release. “We are directly addressing the cost and complexity barriers facing the renewable hydrogen market. We are excited to move forward with a company like Shell, whose global leadership has been proven to accelerate innovative technologies to market.”

Supercritical’s hydrogen electrolyser technology can operate at high temperatures and pressures of up to 220 bar without the need for an external hydrogen compressor, rare-earth materials or easily degradable membranes. The technology removes the typical compression step in the process while delivering hydrogen at industry standards. It requires significantly less energy than many traditional electrolyzers and is more cost-efficient.

This recent investment builds on an ongoing relationship between Shell and Supercritical. Supercritical was founded in 2020 and was runner-up in Shell’s New Energy Challenge, which helps startups and scaleups develop sustainable technologies, in 2021. Shell Ventures then invested in Supercritical’s Series A funding round in 2024 with Toyota Ventures.

3 Houston-area companies named to Global Cleantech 100

Energized

Three Houston-area companies—Amperon, Hertha Metals and Vaulted Deep—appear on this year’s Global Cleantech 100 list.

The unranked list, generated by market intelligence and advisory firm Cleantech Group, identifies the 100 privately held companies around the world that are most likely to make a significant impact in the cleantech market over the next five to 10 years.

For the 2026 list, Cleantech Group received more than 24,000 Global Cleantech 100 nominations from nearly 60 countries. Cleantech Group scored those companies and narrowed the contenders to 264. An expert panel reviewed those nominees, and the list was whittled down to the 100 winners.

Here’s a rundown of the three Houston-area honorees:

Amperon

Founded in 2018 by Sean Kelly and Abe Stanway, Houston-based Amperon offers an AI-enabled energy forecasting and analytics platform designed to help stabilize electric grids. Amperon received undisclosed amounts of venture capital from National Grid Partners and Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. last year and announced a recent investment from Samsung Ventures earlier this month.

Hertha Metals

Founded in 2022 by Laureen Meroueh, Conroe-based Hertha Metals provides a single-step process for producing sustainable steel. Last year, the company emerged from stealth mode and raised more than $17 million in venture capital.

Vaulted Deep

Vaulted Deep’s technology injects excess organic waste underground to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Julia Reichelstein and Omar Abou-Sayed founded the Houston-based company in 2023. Last year, the startup raised $32.3 million in venture capital. Also in 2025, Vaulted Deep signed a 12-year deal with software giant Microsoft to remove up to 4.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the environment.

Vaulted Deep also made the list last year, along with Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics and Fervo Energy. Fervo was also named the 2025 North American Company of the Year by Cleantech Group.

Houston AI energy forecasting company lands investment from Samsung Ventures

funding for forecasts

Amperon, a Houston-based AI-powered forecasting solutions company, has received an investment for an undisclosed amount from Samsung Ventures, the corporate venture arm of Samsung Group.

According to Amperon, the funding will be put toward the company's global growth and next-generation product development. Samsung Ventures invests in emerging businesses developing technologies for the AI, advanced devices and energy-related sectors.

“Samsung Ventures’ investment is a strong validation of our mission to transform the way energy is forecasted and traded,” Sean Kelly, CEO and co-founder of Amperon, said in a news release. “Samsung’s global footprint and leadership in semiconductors, data infrastructure, and AI acceleration make them a natural fit as we expand Amperon’s reach into energy-intensive sectors like data centers. Their track record of scaling next-generation technologies aligns perfectly with our vision to build a more intelligent, resilient, and data-driven energy system.”

Amperon was founded in 2018. Its AI models combine real-time weather, consumption and market data for energy retailers, utilities and independent power producers.

Last year, the company launched its weather-informed grid demand Mid-Term Forecast (MTF), which provides users with data on electricity demand up to seven months in advance. It also secured strategic investments from Acario, the corporate venture capital and innovation division of Tokyo Gas, as well as National Grid Partners, the venture investment and innovation arm of National Grid (NYSE: NGG).

After expanding into Europe in 2024, the company has continued to see international growth, and currently operates in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Australia, Europe and the Middle East.

“Amperon has demonstrated strong technical capabilities and global traction in a rapidly evolving energy landscape,” a spokesperson for Samsung Ventures added in the release. “Their ability to forecast and model real-time energy data at global scale positions them as a key enabler of smarter energy systems and climate resilience. We are pleased to invest in a company developing technologies that support a more sustainable and digitized world.”

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