Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

NRG and Renew Home expect the virtual power plant program to arrive for Texas customers in spring of 2025. Photo via Getty Images

NRG Energy partners to launch Texas' largest AI-powered virtual power plant

dream team

NRG Energy is partnering with a virtual power plant company to distribute hundreds of thousands of VPP-enabled smart thermostats by 2035 in an overall effort to improve the Texas grid's resiliency and help households manage and lower their energy costs.

Renew Home will create a nearly 1 gigawatt AI-powered VPP, which will be enabled by Google Cloud technology and be the largest AI-enabled VPP in Texas. NRG and Renew Home expect the VPP program to arrive for Texas customers in spring of 2025.

A 1 gigawatt VPP can deliver a capacity that is equivalent to 200,000 homes during peak demand times. NRG and Renew Home plan to offer Vivint and Nest smart thermostats, which will include professional installation at no cost to eligible customers as part of the goal to build the VPP.

The advanced thermostats can make automatic HVAC adjustments that can help customers shift their energy use to times when electricity is less expensive, and cleaner. The program will combine smart devices, energy intelligence, and AI. The companies expect to add devices like batteries and electric vehicles to the VPP.

“By partnering with industry leaders like Renew Home and Google Cloud, we are set to deliver cutting-edge, AI-driven solutions that will bolster grid resilience and contribute to a more sustainable future,” Rasesh Patel, president of NRG Consumer, says in a news release. “We are excited about the transformative impact this collaboration will have on our customers and the broader energy landscape.”

NRG will also be utilizing the multi-year technology transformation with Google Cloud. NRG will be able to better predict weather conditions, forecast wind and solar generation output, and create predictive pricing models through the use of Google Cloud's data, analytics, and AI technology.

"As we move toward a more sustainable future and face increasing energy demands, Google Cloud recognizes the importance of partnering with innovators like NRG and Renew Home to help transform the consumer energy experience with AI and the best of Google Cloud,” Michael Clark, president - North America at Google Cloud, adds. "Our collaboration will help Texas meet its growing energy demands, and also empower consumers to get more from their energy, smart home, and essential home services in the future.”

Texas reached an unprecedented demand surge of 85 gigawatts in 2023.

“As rapid population growth and weather events create new challenges for meeting demand in ERCOT, VPPs can deliver a reliable, flexible and dispatchable energy resource,” Renew Home CEO Ben Brown continues. “NRG’s commitment to creating a more resilient and sustainable energy future while also making electricity bills more affordable makes them an ideal partner for co-developing this unique VPP program. This initiative raises the bar for future-proofing our electricity infrastructure and delivering cost savings to customers.”

The United States Department of Energy is doling out over $200 million for grid improvements — and one of the largest portions will be coming to Texas. Photo via Getty Images

DOE announces over $60M in federal funding for power grid improvement

show me the money

Texas is getting $60.6 million in federal grants to bolster the state’s frequently taxed power grid.

The funding, announced July 6 by the U.S. Department of Energy, totals over $200 million to be distributed across the country. The Lone Star State's chunk will be earmarked for pinpointing gaps in the grid’s dependability and reducing weather-related grid disruptions. The Texas Division of Energy Management will decide how to dole out the money.

“By itself, is $60 million going to be determinative to make our grid reliable? Of course not,” Doug Lewin, president of Austin-based energy consulting firm Stoic Energy, tells the Austin American-Statesman. “It’ll cost more than that, but every bit counts, and $60 million is not a small amount of money, so [the state] could probably do a lot of good with that.”

The Texas grid infamously came under intense scrutiny in February 2021 during and after the statewide deep freeze. The cold snap caused power plants and natural gas facilities to fail, leading to blackouts around the state and at least 200 deaths.

The February 2021 disaster “exposed the inability of the state’s energy supply chain to withstand extremely cold temperatures,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas observes. The bank adds that “questions remain whether the electrical grid is now more resilient to winter weather.”

Although the grid has held up during this year’s heat wave, some observers wonder how long the grid can handle record-setting demand and still keep the lights (and air conditioning) on. So far, an abundance of wind and solar power has rescued Texas from the same fate that crippled the state in February 2021.

All eyes then and now are on the quasi-governmental Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which delivers power to about 90 percent of the state.

Since ERCOT’s winter debacle two years ago, state officials have beefed up weatherization requirements for power generation, power transmission, and natural gas facilities. Meanwhile, ERCOT underwent a management overhaul and bumped up its backup supply of thermal power.

During the state legislative session in 2021, a measure that would have earmarked $2 billion for weatherization of Texas power facilities passed in the House but stalled in the Senate.

This year, Texas lawmakers created a fund containing as much as $10 billion for loans and grants to encourage construction and maintenance of gas-fueled power plants. Gov. Greg Abbott signed that bill. But separate legislation that would have set aside billions of dollars to build a network of gas-powered backup plants died in the House.

A report published in 2022 by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy faulted ERCOT for the previous year’s winter chaos but didn’t pin sole blame on the organization. The report recommended better coordination among state regulators regarding the power grid, including potential formation of a state agency dedicated solely to energy issues. Today, the Texas Railroad Commission and Public Utility Commission of Texas largely share oversight of energy matters in the state.

“All forms of generation capacity experienced failures,” says the institute’s report on the 2021 winter catastrophe, “but bureaucratic failure in identifying and addressing risks along fuel supply chains was a major failure.”

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Syzygy partners with fellow Houston co. on sustainable aviation fuel facility

SAF production

Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics has announced a partnership with Velocys, another Houston company, on its first-of-its-kind sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production project in Uruguay.

Velocys was selected to provide Fischer-Tropsch technology for the project. Fischer-Tropsch technology converts synthesis gas into liquid hydrocarbons, which is key for producing synthetic fuels like SAF.

Syzygy estimates that the project, known as NovaSAF 1, will produce over 350,000 gallons of SAF annually. It is backed by Uruguay’s largest dairy and agri-energy operations, Estancias del Lago, with permitting and equipment sourcing ongoing. Syzygy hopes to start operations by 2027.

"This project proves that profitable SAF production doesn't have to wait on future infrastructure," Trevor Best, CEO of Syzygy Plasmonics, said in a news release. "With Velocys, we're bringing in a complete, modular solution that drives down overall production costs and is ready to scale. Uruguay is only the start."

The NovaSAF 1 facility will convert dairy waste and biogas into drop-in jet fuel using renewable electricity and waste gas via its light-driven GHG e-Reforming technology. The facility is expected to produce SAF with at least an 80 percent reduction in carbon intensity compared to Jet A fuel.

Syzygy will use Velocys’ microFTL technology to convert syngas into high-yield jet fuel. Velocys’ microFTL will help maximize fuel output, which will assist in driving down the cost required to produce synthetic fuel.

"We're proud to bring our FT technology into a project that's changing the game," Matthew Viergutz, CEO of Velocys, added in the release. "This is what innovation looks like—fast, flexible, and focused on making SAF production affordable."

How carbon capture works and the debate about whether it's a future climate solution

Energy Transition

Power plants and industrial facilities that emit carbon dioxide, the primary driver of global warming, are hopeful that Congress will keep tax credits for capturing the gas and storing it deep underground.

The process, called carbon capture and sequestration, is seen by many as an important way to reduce pollution during a transition to renewable energy.

But it faces criticism from some conservatives, who say it is expensive and unnecessary, and from environmentalists, who say it has consistently failed to capture as much pollution as promised and is simply a way for producers of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal to continue their use.

Here's a closer look.

How does the process work?

Carbon dioxide is a gas produced by burning of fossil fuels. It traps heat close to the ground when released to the atmosphere, where it persists for hundreds of years and raises global temperatures.

Industries and power plants can install equipment to separate carbon dioxide from other gases before it leaves the smokestack. The carbon then is compressed and shipped — usually through a pipeline — to a location where it’s injected deep underground for long-term storage.

Carbon also can be captured directly from the atmosphere using giant vacuums. Once captured, it is dissolved by chemicals or trapped by solid material.

Lauren Read, a senior vice president at BKV Corp., which built a carbon capture facility in Texas, said the company injects carbon at high pressure, forcing it almost two miles below the surface and into geological formations that can hold it for thousands of years.

The carbon can be stored in deep saline or basalt formations and unmineable coal seams. But about three-fourths of captured carbon dioxide is pumped back into oil fields to build up pressure that helps extract harder-to-reach reserves — meaning it's not stored permanently, according to the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

How much carbon dioxide is captured?

The most commonly used technology allows facilities to capture and store around 60% of their carbon dioxide emissions during the production process. Anything above that rate is much more difficult and expensive, according to the IEA.

Some companies have forecast carbon capture rates of 90% or more, “in practice, that has never happened,” said Alexandra Shaykevich, research manager at the Environmental Integrity Project’s Oil & Gas Watch.

That's because it's difficult to capture carbon dioxide from every point where it's emitted, said Grant Hauber, a strategic adviser on energy and financial markets at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Environmentalists also cite potential problems keeping it in the ground. For example, last year, agribusiness company Archer-Daniels-Midland discovered a leak about a mile underground at its Illinois carbon capture and storage site, prompting the state legislature this year to ban carbon sequestration above or below the Mahomet Aquifer, an important source of drinking water for about a million people.

Carbon capture can be used to help reduce emissions from hard-to-abate industries like cement and steel, but many environmentalists contend it's less helpful when it extends the use of coal, oil and gas.

A 2021 study also found the carbon capture process emits significant amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that’s shorter-lived than carbon dioxide but traps over 80 times more heat. That happens through leaks when the gas is brought to the surface and transported to plants.

About 45 carbon-capture facilities operated on a commercial scale last year, capturing a combined 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — a tiny fraction of the 37.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector alone, according to the IEA.

It's an even smaller share of all greenhouse gas emissions, which amounted to 53 gigatonnes for 2023, according to the latest report from the European Commission’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says one of the world's largest carbon capture utilization and storage projects, ExxonMobil’s Shute Creek facility in Wyoming, captures only about half its carbon dioxide, and most of that is sold to oil and gas companies to pump back into oil fields.

Future of US tax credits is unclear

Even so, carbon capture is an important tool to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, particularly in heavy industries, said Sangeet Nepal, a technology specialist at the Carbon Capture Coalition.

“It’s not a substitution for renewables ... it’s just a complementary technology,” Nepal said. “It’s one piece of a puzzle in this broad fight against the climate change.”

Experts say many projects, including proposed ammonia and hydrogen plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast, likely won't be built without the tax credits, which Carbon Capture Coalition Executive Director Jessie Stolark says already have driven significant investment and are crucial U.S. global competitiveness.

Houston renewable fuel company expands reach with latest acquisition

fueling up

Houston-based Freedom CNG, a provider and distributor of compressed renewable natural gas, has acquired ComTech Energy, a Canada-based provider of on-site mobile refueling for compressed renewable natural gas. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed.

The acquisition allows Freedom CNG to adopt a hub-and-spoke operational model, allowing customers to move away from fixed fueling infrastructure with low-carbon energy solutions across North America, according to a news release.

In conjunction with the deal, ComTech President James Ro has joined Freedom CNG as chief commercial and strategy officer.

“As we expand our footprint in low‑carbon fuel solutions, acquiring ComTech Energy marks an important step in enhancing our ability to deliver efficient, innovative fueling infrastructure,” Nick Kurtenbach, president and chief financial officer of Freedom CNG, said in the release. The acquisition, he added, “allows us to offer a more comprehensive suite of solutions that support the transition to cleaner energy and meet the evolving needs of our customers.”

Freedom CNG’s North American footprint now spans more than 25 fueling stations for compressed renewable natural gas and over 60 operations and maintenance sites across the U.S. and Canada.

This is the third acquisition for Freedom CNG in the last two months. It also recently acquired Colorado-based X3 CNG and Utah-based Lancer Energy, according to a representative from Freedom CNG, this summer. The company services regional trucks, buses and service vehicles, as well as heavy construction, agriculture, data centers and other sectors.

Last year, funds affiliated with alternative asset manager Apollo bought a majority stake in Freedom CNG, which was founded in 2012. The value of the deal wasn’t disclosed.

“Freedom has developed a strong portfolio of [renewable natural gas] fueling stations with meaningful growth potential driven by established relationships with blue-chip customers and attractive new development opportunities,” Apollo partner Scott Browning said in 2024.