Guest column: How growing energy demand will impact the Texas grid

Guest Column

Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Heat dome moves into Texas with record highs expected

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A heat dome that has led to nearly 90 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures in Phoenix moved into Texas Wednesday, with record highs expected to fall by the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, energy demand in Texas hit an unofficial all-time high Tuesday, according to data from the state’s grid operator.

A major heat alert is in place for Texas, reflecting what the weather service called “rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief.” An extreme heat alert was issued for eastern New Mexico.

A heat dome is a slow moving, upper-level high pressure system of stable air and a deep layer of high temperatures, meteorologist Bryan Jackson said.

“It is usually sunny, the sun is beating down, it is hot and the air is contained there,” Jackson said. “There are dozen or so sites that are setting daily records ... mostly over Texas.”

Record high temperatures were expected in cities such as Corpus Christi, San Antonio and Amarillo. In Phoenix, monsoon rains have provided brief respites since Sunday, although daytime highs continue to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius).

The dome was expected to move into western Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico beginning Saturday, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley, where it was forecast to weaken slightly, Jackson said.

About 14.7 million people are under an excessive heat warning, with heat indexes expected at 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) and above. Another 10 million people were under a heat advisory.

There were 38 heat-related deaths in Texas from January through July, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services, and hundreds have already sought emergency care, according to MedStar ambulance in Fort Worth, Texas. The service responded to 286 heat-related calls during the first 20 days of August, about 14 per day, compared to about 11 per day in August 2023, according to public information officer Desiree Partain.

Austin-Travis County EMS Capt. Christa Stedman said calls about heat-related illness in the area around the Texas state Capitol since April 1 are up by about one per day compared with a year ago, though July was somewhat milder this year.

"The vast majority of what we see is heat exhaustion, which is good because we catch it before it’s heat stroke, but it’s bad because people are not listening to the red flags,” such as heat cramps in the arms, legs or stomach warning that the body is becoming too hot, Stedman said.

Despite the record heat in Texas, residents haven't been asked to cut back on their energy use like in years prior. This contrasts with the 11 conservation notices issued last year. One reason is that the agency, which manages Texas' independent energy grid and deregulated providers, has improved the grid's capabilities with the addition of more than 15 gigawatts of power supply since last summer.

Although the agency has gotten better at controlling the demands of the grid, their criteria for when to notify residents to conserve energy has also changed, Doug Lewin, an energy consultant and president of Stoic Energy said.

Lewin suspects it’s because they’re ineffective and unpopular.

“I don’t think they’re seeing all that much reduction when they give notices,” Lewin said of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In fact public uproar against the conservation warnings has led to the agency sending fewer of them, he continued.

“There are many factors that ERCOT operations take into consideration when determining the need to issue conservation, case by case depending on conditions at the time,” communications manager Trudi Webster said on the matter.

“It’s been a hot summer, but this one does stand out in terms of extremes,” said Jackson, the meteorologist.

Earlier this month, about 100 people were sickened and 10 were hospitalized due to extreme heat at a Colorado air show and at least two people have died due to the heat in California's Death Valley National Park.

Globally, a string of 13 straight months with a new average heat record came to an end this past July as the natural El Nino climate pattern ebbed, the European climate agency Copernicus announced Thursday.

ERCOT now estimates an extra 40,000 megawatts of growth in demand for electricity by 2030 compared with last year’s outlook. Photo via Getty Images

Eyeing demand growth, ERCOT calls for energy investments across Texas

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With the Electric Reliability Council of Texas forecasting a big spike in demand for electricity over the next five to seven years, the operator of Texas’ massive power grid is embracing changes that it says will yield a “tremendous opportunity” for energy investments across the state.

The council, known as ERCOT, now estimates an extra 40,000 megawatts of growth in demand for electricity by 2030 compared with last year’s outlook. According to ERCOT data, 40,000 megawatts of electricity would power roughly 8 million Texas homes during peak demand.

ERCOT has been under intense scrutiny in the wake of recent summertime and wintertime debacles involving power emergencies or outages. The organization manages 90 percent of Texas’ power supply.

“As a result of Texas’ continued strong economic growth, new load is being added to the ERCOT system faster and in greater amounts than ever before,” Pablo Vegas, president and CEO of ERCOT, says in a news release. “As we develop and implement the tools provided by the prior two [legislative sessions], ERCOT is positioned to better plan for and meet the needs of our incredibly fast-growing state.”

Meeting the increased demand will create opportunities for energy investments in Texas, says ERCOT. These opportunities will undoubtedly lie in traditional energy production as well as in renewable energy segments such as solar, wind, and “green” hydrogen.

Some of the opportunities might be financed, at least in part, by the newly established Texas Energy Fund. The fund, which has been allotted $5 billion for 2025-26, will provide loans and grants for construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of power-generating facilities in Texas.

ERCOT is also working with partners to develop tools aimed at improving grid reliability and market efficiency.

ERCOT says changes in its operations that’ll be required to fulfill heightened demand for power will position the nonprofit organization “as a significant component of the economic engine driving the national economy.”

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Global energy startup competition returns to Houston this fall

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The Society of Petroleum Engineers' Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition (ATCE) takes place in Houston this fall, and with it comes its ATCE Startup Village Energy Startup Competition.

Held this year at the George R. Brown Convention Center on Oct. 21, the fast-paced pitch competition invites early stage, upstream technology ventures from around the world to present on their companies and technologies in front of venture capitalists, angel investors and industry leaders.

The deadline to apply for the competition is Friday, July 18. Apply here.

The ATCE Startup Village is a partnership between SPE and the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship. Ten primary finalists and two alternates are selected to participate in the competition, where they have the opportunity to win cash prizes and gain mentorship from industry leaders.

Finalists will present a seven-minute pitch, followed by an additional seven minutes of Q&A.

They will also have the opportunity to meet with a panel of industry experts during a private coaching session the week of Sept. 22. Winners will be announced at ATCE in Houston, and finalists and alternates will be notified in late August.

Judging is based on four main criteria:

Innovative technology
Commercial strategy and business plan
Market potential
Management team and advisors

The competition has awarded nearly $460,000 in prize money to startups through the competition to date, according to the ATCE's website. Past winners have come from Canada, France, the Netherlands, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

Several Houston teams pitched at the 2024 competition during the 100th annual ATCE in New Orleans. The local teams included:

Decimetrix, led by CEO Alejandro Zotti, went on to win the Best in Show and People's Choice awards. Revolink Technology Company earned the Rising Star, or runner up, award.

Tesla announces annual meeting under pressure from shareholders

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Tesla has scheduled an annual shareholder meeting for November, one day after it came under pressure from major shareholders to do so.

Billionaire Elon Musk's company said in a regulatory filing on Thursday that the meeting would be held Nov. 6, but that may prove troublesome because it comes nearly three months after it is required to do so under state law in Texas, where the company is incorporated.

The annual meeting, given Tesla's fortunes this year, has the potential to be a raucous event and it is unclear how investors will react to the delay, which is rare for any major U.S. corporation.

Tesla shares have plunged 27% this year, largely due to blowback over Musk's affiliation with President Donald Trump, as well as rising competition.

The announcement of the meeting comes a day after a group of more than 20 Tesla shareholders sent a letter to the company's board pressing for an annual meeting after receiving no word of one with the deadline just days away.

Many shareholders have been miffed by Musk's participation in the Trump administration this year, saying he needs to focus on his EV company which is facing extraordinary pressures.

“An annual meeting provides shareholders with the opportunity to hear directly from the board about these concerns, and to vote for or against directors, the board’s approach to executive compensation, and other matters of material importance,” the group said in the letter.

The group cited Texas law, which requires companies to schedule annual shareholders meetings within 13 months of the prior annual meeting.

Tesla’s last shareholders meeting was on June 13 of last year, where investors voted to restore Musk’s record $44.9 billion pay package that was thrown out by a Delaware judge earlier that year.

Also on Thursday, Musk that the Grok chatbot will be heading to Tesla vehicles.

“Grok is coming to Tesla vehicles very soon. Next week at the latest,” Musk said on social media platform X, in response to a post stating that Grok implementation on Teslas wasn't announced on a Grok livestream Wednesday.

Grok was developed by Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI and pitched as an alternative to “woke AI” interactions from rival chatbots like Google’s Gemini, or OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Shares of Tesla rose 3% at the opening bell after tumbling this week when the feud between Trump and Musk heated up again.

Greentown Labs names Lawson Gow as its new Houston leader

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Greentown Labs has named Lawson Gow as its Head of Houston.

Gow is the founder of The Cannon, a coworking space with seven locations in the Houston area, with additional partner spaces. He also recently served as managing partner at Houston-based investment and advisory firm Helium Capital. Gow is the son of David Gow, founder of Energy Capital's parent company, Gow Media.

According to Greentown, Gow will "enhance the founder experience, cultivate strategic partnerships, and accelerate climatetech solutions" in his new role.

“I couldn’t be more excited to join Greentown at this critical moment for the energy transition,” Gow said in a news release. “Greentown has a fantastic track record of supporting entrepreneurs in Houston, Boston, and beyond, and I am eager to keep advancing our mission in the energy transition capital of the world.”

Gow has also held analyst, strategy and advising roles since graduating from Rice University.

“We are thrilled to welcome Lawson to our leadership team,” Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown Labs, added in the release. “Lawson has spent his career building community and championing entrepreneurs, and we look forward to him deepening Greentown’s support of climate and energy startups as our Head of Houston.”

Gow is the latest addition to a series of new hires at Greentown Labs following a leadership shakeup.

Flatter was named as the organization's new CEO in February, replacing Kevin Dutt, Greentown’s interim CEO, who replaced Kevin Knobloch after he announced that he would step down in July 2024 after less than a year in the role.

Greentown also named Naheed Malik its new CFO in January.

Timmeko Moore Love was named the first Houston general manager and senior vice president of Greentown Labs. According to LinkedIn, she left the role in January.

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