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Guest column: How growing energy demand will impact the Texas grid

Guest Column

Texas' energy demand will nearly double by 2030, says ERCOT. Photo via Getty Images

Although Texas increased its power supply by 35% over the last four years, a recent report from ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026. There are many factors and variables that could either increase or decrease the grid’s stability.

Homebuilding in Texas

One of the most easily identifiable challenges is that the population of Texas is continuing to grow, which places greater demand on the state’s power grid. With its booming population, the state is now the second most populous in the country.

In 2024, Texas led the nation in homebuilding, issuing 15% of the country's new-home permits in 2024. Within the first two months of 2025, Houston alone saw more than 11,000 new building permits issued. The fact that Houston is the only major metro in the United States to lack zoning laws means it does not directly regulate density or separate communities by use type, which is advantageous for developers and homebuilders, who have far fewer restrictions to navigate when constructing new homes.

Large-scale computing facilities

Another main source of the growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations. These facilities consume large amounts of electricity to run and keep their computing equipment cool.

In 2022, in an effort to ensure grid reliability, ERCOT created a program to approve and monitor these large load (LFL) customers. The Large Flexible Load Task Force is a non-voting body that develops policy recommendations related to planning, markets, operations, and large load interconnection processes. LFL customers are those with an expected peak demand capacity of 75 megawatts or greater.

It is anticipated that electricity demand from customers identified by ERCOT as LFL will total 54 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2025, which is up almost 60% from the expected demand in 2024. If this comes to fruition, the demand from LFL customers would represent about 10% of the total forecast electricity consumption on the ERCOT grid this year. To accommodate the expected increase in power demand from large computing facilities, the state created the Texas Energy Fund, which provides grants and loans to finance the construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of electric facilities in Texas. During this year’s 89th legislative session, lawmakers approved a major expansion of the Texas Energy Fund, allocating $5 billion more to help build new power plants and fund grid resilience projects.

Is solar power the key to stabilizing the grid?

The fastest-growing source of new electric generating capacity in the United States is solar power, and Texas stands as the second-highest producer of solar energy in the country.

On a regular day, solar power typically constitutes about 5% of the grid’s total energy output. However, during intense heat waves, when the demand for electricity spikes and solar conditions are optimal, the share of solar power can significantly increase. In such scenarios, solar energy’s contribution to the Texas grid can rise to as much as 20%, highlighting its potential to meet higher energy demands, especially during critical times of need.

While the benefits of solar power are numerous, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, lowering electricity bills, and promoting energy independence from the grid, it is important to acknowledge its barriers, such as:

  • Sunlight is intermittent and variable. Cloudy days, nighttime, and seasonal changes can affect energy production, requiring backup or storage solutions. Extreme weather conditions, such as hailstorms, can damage solar panels, affecting their performance and lifespan.
  • The upfront costs of purchasing and installing solar panels and associated equipment can be relatively high.
  • Large-scale solar installations may require significant land area, potentially leading to concerns about land use, habitat disruption, and conflicts with agricultural activities.
  • Integrating solar power into existing electricity grids can pose challenges due to its intermittent nature. Upgrading and modifying grids to handle distributed generation can be costly.

Although Texas has made progress in expanding its power supply, the rapid pace of population growth, homebuilding, and large-scale computing facilities presents challenges for grid stability. The gap between energy supply and demand needs to continue to be addressed with proactive planning. While solar power is a promising solution, there are realistic limitations to consider. A diversified approach that includes both renewable and traditional energy sources, along with ongoing legislative movement, is critical to ensuring a resilient energy future for Texas.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Heat dome moves into Texas with record highs expected

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A heat dome that has led to nearly 90 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures in Phoenix moved into Texas Wednesday, with record highs expected to fall by the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, energy demand in Texas hit an unofficial all-time high Tuesday, according to data from the state’s grid operator.

A major heat alert is in place for Texas, reflecting what the weather service called “rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief.” An extreme heat alert was issued for eastern New Mexico.

A heat dome is a slow moving, upper-level high pressure system of stable air and a deep layer of high temperatures, meteorologist Bryan Jackson said.

“It is usually sunny, the sun is beating down, it is hot and the air is contained there,” Jackson said. “There are dozen or so sites that are setting daily records ... mostly over Texas.”

Record high temperatures were expected in cities such as Corpus Christi, San Antonio and Amarillo. In Phoenix, monsoon rains have provided brief respites since Sunday, although daytime highs continue to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius).

The dome was expected to move into western Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico beginning Saturday, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley, where it was forecast to weaken slightly, Jackson said.

About 14.7 million people are under an excessive heat warning, with heat indexes expected at 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) and above. Another 10 million people were under a heat advisory.

There were 38 heat-related deaths in Texas from January through July, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services, and hundreds have already sought emergency care, according to MedStar ambulance in Fort Worth, Texas. The service responded to 286 heat-related calls during the first 20 days of August, about 14 per day, compared to about 11 per day in August 2023, according to public information officer Desiree Partain.

Austin-Travis County EMS Capt. Christa Stedman said calls about heat-related illness in the area around the Texas state Capitol since April 1 are up by about one per day compared with a year ago, though July was somewhat milder this year.

"The vast majority of what we see is heat exhaustion, which is good because we catch it before it’s heat stroke, but it’s bad because people are not listening to the red flags,” such as heat cramps in the arms, legs or stomach warning that the body is becoming too hot, Stedman said.

Despite the record heat in Texas, residents haven't been asked to cut back on their energy use like in years prior. This contrasts with the 11 conservation notices issued last year. One reason is that the agency, which manages Texas' independent energy grid and deregulated providers, has improved the grid's capabilities with the addition of more than 15 gigawatts of power supply since last summer.

Although the agency has gotten better at controlling the demands of the grid, their criteria for when to notify residents to conserve energy has also changed, Doug Lewin, an energy consultant and president of Stoic Energy said.

Lewin suspects it’s because they’re ineffective and unpopular.

“I don’t think they’re seeing all that much reduction when they give notices,” Lewin said of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In fact public uproar against the conservation warnings has led to the agency sending fewer of them, he continued.

“There are many factors that ERCOT operations take into consideration when determining the need to issue conservation, case by case depending on conditions at the time,” communications manager Trudi Webster said on the matter.

“It’s been a hot summer, but this one does stand out in terms of extremes,” said Jackson, the meteorologist.

Earlier this month, about 100 people were sickened and 10 were hospitalized due to extreme heat at a Colorado air show and at least two people have died due to the heat in California's Death Valley National Park.

Globally, a string of 13 straight months with a new average heat record came to an end this past July as the natural El Nino climate pattern ebbed, the European climate agency Copernicus announced Thursday.

ERCOT now estimates an extra 40,000 megawatts of growth in demand for electricity by 2030 compared with last year’s outlook. Photo via Getty Images

Eyeing demand growth, ERCOT calls for energy investments across Texas

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With the Electric Reliability Council of Texas forecasting a big spike in demand for electricity over the next five to seven years, the operator of Texas’ massive power grid is embracing changes that it says will yield a “tremendous opportunity” for energy investments across the state.

The council, known as ERCOT, now estimates an extra 40,000 megawatts of growth in demand for electricity by 2030 compared with last year’s outlook. According to ERCOT data, 40,000 megawatts of electricity would power roughly 8 million Texas homes during peak demand.

ERCOT has been under intense scrutiny in the wake of recent summertime and wintertime debacles involving power emergencies or outages. The organization manages 90 percent of Texas’ power supply.

“As a result of Texas’ continued strong economic growth, new load is being added to the ERCOT system faster and in greater amounts than ever before,” Pablo Vegas, president and CEO of ERCOT, says in a news release. “As we develop and implement the tools provided by the prior two [legislative sessions], ERCOT is positioned to better plan for and meet the needs of our incredibly fast-growing state.”

Meeting the increased demand will create opportunities for energy investments in Texas, says ERCOT. These opportunities will undoubtedly lie in traditional energy production as well as in renewable energy segments such as solar, wind, and “green” hydrogen.

Some of the opportunities might be financed, at least in part, by the newly established Texas Energy Fund. The fund, which has been allotted $5 billion for 2025-26, will provide loans and grants for construction, maintenance, modernization, and operation of power-generating facilities in Texas.

ERCOT is also working with partners to develop tools aimed at improving grid reliability and market efficiency.

ERCOT says changes in its operations that’ll be required to fulfill heightened demand for power will position the nonprofit organization “as a significant component of the economic engine driving the national economy.”

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New UH white paper details Texas grid's shortfalls

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Two University of Houston researchers are issuing a warning about the Texas power grid: Its current infrastructure falls short of what’s needed to keep pace with rising demand for electricity.

The warning comes in a new whitepaper authored by Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president of energy and innovation at UH, and researcher Aparajita Datta, a Ph.D candidate at UH.

“As data centers pop up around the Lone Star State, electric vehicles become more commonplace, industries adopt decarbonization technologies, demographics change, and temperatures rise statewide, electricity needs in Texas could double by 2035,” a UH news release says. “If electrification continues to grow unconstrained, demand could even quadruple over the next decade.”

Without significant upgrades to power plants and supporting infrastructure, Texas could see electricity shortages, rising power costs and more stress on the state’s grid in coming years, the researchers say. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid serves 90 percent of the state.

“Texas, like much of the nation, has fallen behind on infrastructure updates, and the state’s growing population, diversified economy and frequent severe weather events are increasing the strain on the grid,” Datta says. “Texas must improve its grid to ensure people in the state have access to reliable, affordable, and resilient energy systems so we can preserve and grow the quality of life in the state.”

The whitepaper’s authors caution that Texas faces a potential electricity shortfall of up to 40 gigawatts annually by 2035 if the grid doesn’t expand, with a more probable shortfall of about 27 gigawatts. And they allude to a repeat of the massive power outages in Texas during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021.

One gigawatt of electricity can power an estimated 750,000 homes in Texas, according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association.

The state’s current energy mix includes 40 percent natural gas, 29 percent wind, 12 percent coal, 10 percent nuclear and eight percent solar, the authors say.

Despite surging demand, 360 gigawatts of solar and battery storage projects are stuck in ERCOT’s queue, according to the researchers, and new natural gas plants have been delayed or withdrawn due to supply chain challenges, bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainties and shifting financial incentives.

Senate Bill 6, recently signed by Gov. Greg Abbott, calls for demand-response mandates, clearer rate structures and new load management requirements for big users of power like data centers and AI hubs.

“While these provisions are a step in the right direction,” says Datta, “Texas needs more responsive and prompt policy action to secure grid reliability, address the geographic mismatch between electricity demand and supply centers, and maintain the state’s global leadership in energy.”

Houston-area logistics co. breaks ground on recycling center tied to circularity hub

coming soon

TALKE USA Inc., a Houston-area arm of German logistics company TALKE, broke ground on its new Recycling Support Center in Mont Belvieu Aug. 1.

The facility will process post-consumer plastic materials, which will then be further processed at Cyclyx's new Houston-based Circularity Center, a first-of-its-kind plastic waste sorting and processing facility that was developed through a joint venture between Cyclix, ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell.

The materials will ultimately be converted into recycling feedstock.

“We’re proud to break ground on a facility that reflects our long-term vision for sustainable growth,” Richard Heath, CEO and president of TALKE USA Inc., said in a news release. “This groundbreaking marks an important milestone for our team, our customers, and the Mont Belvieu community.”

The new facility was partially funded by Chambers County, according to the release. The Baytown Sun reports that the county put $1 million towards the construction of the project, which brings advanced recycling and mechanical recycling to the area.

TALKE USA said it plans to share more about the new facility and its impact in the future.

Meanwhile, the Houston-based Cyclyx Circularity Center (CCC1) is slated to open this year and is expected to produce 300 million pounds of custom-formulated feedstock annually. A second circularity center, CCC2, is expected to start up in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in the second half of 2026. Read more here.

8 Houston energy giants top global corporate startup index for 2025

Global Group

Eight major players in Houston’s energy industry rank among the world’s top 20 energy companies for corporate startup activity.

The inaugural Corporate Startup Activity Index 2025, published by StartupBlink, ranks global corporations by industry. The eight Houston-area employers fall into the index’s energy and environment category.

Researchers from StartupBlink, an innovation research platform, scored more than 370 companies based on three factors: corporate involvement in startup activity, startup success and ecosystem integration.

The eight Houston-area energy employers that landed in the energy and environment category’s top 20 are:

  • No. 3 BP. Score: 13.547. U.S. headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 5 Saudi Aramco. Score: 7.405. Americas headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 7 Eni. Score: 6.255. Headquarters of Eni U.S. Operating Co. in Houston.
  • No. 8 Shell. Score: 6.217. U.S. headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 11 Occidental Petroleum. Score: 5.347. Global headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 15 Engie. Score: 3.352. North American headquarters in Houston.
  • No. 17 Repsol. Score: 2.980. U.S. headquarters for oil and gas operations in The Woodlands.
  • No. 19 Chevron. Score: 2.017. Global headquarters in Houston.

“Building a startup is hard, and navigating corporate innovation can be just as complex. This ranking is a step toward making the connection between startups and corporations more transparent, enabling startups and corporations to collaborate more effectively for mutual success,” said Eli David Rokah, CEO of StartupBlink.

Salesforce topped the global index with a score of 380.090, followed by Intel, Google, Qualcomm, and Comcast.

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This article originally appeared on InnovationMap.com.

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