ERCOT braces for record-breaking power demand this summer

hot temps, high demand

ERCOT predicts power demand will hit a peak of more than 92.2 gigawatts this summer. Photo via Unsplash

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages about 90 percent of the state’s power, is waving a warning flag: The ERCOT grid may set a new record for peak demand this summer.

Based on expectations for a hotter summer this year than last year, ERCOT predicts power demand will hit a peak of more than 92.2 gigawatts this summer — enough power for roughly 18.4 million homes.

“Given the potential for extreme heat combined with significant load growth, ERCOT may surpass its current all-time summer peak,” the organization says in its 2026 summertime forecast.

Further taxing the ERCOT grid are power-hungry data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

Last year’s peak summer demand for ERCOT reached 83.7 megawatts on Aug. 18, and all-time peak demand of 85.5 gigawatts was recorded on Aug. 10, 2023.

Fortunately, ERCOT believes the grid is in good shape to withstand this summer’s heat: It found a 0.09 percent chance of a grid emergency in June and a 0.21 percent chance in July.

More generation of electricity from solar and wind is helping ERCOT meet stepped-up demand prompted by population growth, and the significant power needs of data centers and cryptocurrency-mining facilities.

About 27 million Texas customers depend on power from ERCOT’s grid.

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Spring-based Arroyo Investors has purchased Whirlwind Energy Center in Amarillo, Texas. Photo by Sam LaRussa on Unsplash.

Spring-based private equity firm acquires West Texas wind farm

power deal

Spring-based private equity firm Arroyo Investors has teamed up with ONCEnergy, a Portland, Oregon-based developer of clean energy projects, to buy a 60-megawatt wind farm southeast of Amarillo.

Skyline Renewables, which acquired the site, known as the Whirlwind Energy Center, in 2018, was the seller. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed.

Whirlwind Energy Center, located in Floyd County, West Texas, comprises 26 utility-scale wind turbines. The wind farm, built in 2007, supplies power to Austin Energy.

“The acquisition reflects our focus on value-driven investments with strong counterparties, a solid operating track record, and clear relevance to markets with growing capacity needs,” Brandon Wax, a partner at Arroyo, said in a press release. “Partnering with ONCEnergy allows us to leverage deep operational expertise while expanding our investment footprint in the market.”

Arroyo focuses on energy infrastructure investments in the Americas. Its portfolio includes Spring-based Seaside LNG, which produces liquefied natural gas and LNG transportation services.

Last year, Arroyo closed an investment fund with more than $1 billion in total equity commitments.

Since its launch in 2003, Arroyo has “remained committed to investing in high-quality assets, creating value and positioning assets for exit within our expected hold period,” founding partner Chuck Jordan said in 2022.

A new JLL report predicts that power will become the primary factor in selecting future data center sites, with renewables playing a major role. Photo courtesy JLL.

Renewables to play greater role in powering data centers, JLL says

Data analysis

Renewable energy is evolving as the primary energy source for large data centers, according to a new report.

The 2026 Global Data Center Outlook from commercial real estate services giant JLL points out that the pivot toward big data centers being powered by renewable energy stems from rising electricity costs and tightening carbon reduction requirements. In the data center sector, renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, is expected to outcompete fossil fuels on cost, the report says.

The JLL forecast carries implications for the Houston area’s tech and renewable energy sectors.

As of December, Texas was home to 413 data centers, second only to Virginia at 665, according to Visual Capitalist. Dozens more data centers are in the pipeline, with many of the new facilities slated for the Houston, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio areas.

Amid Texas’ data center boom, several Houston companies are making inroads in the renewable energy market for data centers. For example, Houston-based low-carbon energy supplier ENGIE North America agreed last May to supply up to 300 megawatts of wind power for a Cipher Mining data center in West Texas.

The JLL report says power, not location or cost, will become the primary factor in selecting sites for data centers due to multi-year waits for grid connections.

“Energy infrastructure has emerged as the critical bottleneck constraining expansion [of data centers],” the report says. “Grid limitations now threaten to curtail growth trajectories, making behind-the-meter generation and integrated battery storage solutions essential pathways for sustainable scaling.”

Behind-the-meter generation refers to onsite energy systems such as microgrids, solar panels and solar battery storage. The report predicts global solar capacity will expand by roughly 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030 to more than 10,000 gigawatts.

“Solar will account for nearly half of global renewable energy capacity in 2026, and despite its intermittent properties, solar will remain a key source of sustainable energy for the data center sector for years to come,” the report says.

Thanks to cost and sustainability benefits, solar-plus-storage will become a key element of energy strategies for data centers by 2030, according to the report.

“While some of this energy harvesting will be colocated with data center facilities, much of the energy infrastructure will be installed offsite,” the report says.

Other findings of the report include:

AI could represent half of data center workloads by 2030, up from a quarter in 2025.
The current five-year “supercycle” of data center infrastructure development may result in global investments of up to $3 trillion by 2030.
Nearly 100 gigawatts worth of new data centers will be added between 2026 and 2030, doubling global capacity.

“We’re witnessing the most significant transformation in data center infrastructure since the original cloud migration,” says Matt Landek, who leads JLL’s data center division. “The sheer scale of demand is extraordinary.”

Hyperscalers, which operate massive data centers, are allocating $1 trillion for data center spending between 2024 and 2026, Landek notes, “while supply constraints and four-year grid connection delays are creating a perfect storm that’s fundamentally reshaping how we approach development, energy sourcing, and market strategy.”

A new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that wind and solar supplied more than 30 percent of ERCOT’s electricity in the first nine months of 2025. Photo via Unsplash.

Wind and solar supplied over a third of ERCOT power, report shows

power report

Since 2023, wind and solar power have been the fastest-growing sources of electricity for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and increasingly are meeting stepped-up demand, according to a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The report says utility-scale solar generated 50 percent more electricity for ERCOT in the first nine months this year compared with the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, electricity generated by wind power rose 4 percent in the first nine months of this year versus the same period in 2024.

Together, wind and solar supplied 36 percent of ERCOT’s electricity in the first nine months of 2025.

Heavier reliance on wind and solar power comes amid greater demand for ERCOT electricity. In the first nine months of 2025, ERCOT recorded the fastest growth in electricity demand (5 percent) among U.S. power grids compared with the same period last year, according to the report.

“ERCOT’s electricity demand is forecast to grow faster than that of any other grid operator in the United States through at least 2026,” the report says.

EIA forecasts demand for ERCOT electricity will climb 14 percent in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period this year. This anticipated jump coincides with a number of large data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities coming online next year.

The ERCOT grid covers about 90 percent of Texas’ electrical load.

A team from UH has published two breakthrough studies that could help cut costs and boost efficiency in carbon capture. Photo courtesy UH.

UH researchers make breakthrough in cutting carbon capture costs

Carbon breakthrough

A team of researchers at the University of Houston has made two breakthroughs in addressing climate change and potentially reducing the cost of capturing harmful emissions from power plants.

Led by Professor Mim Rahimi at UH’s Cullen College of Engineering, the team released two significant publications that made significant strides relating to carbon capture processes. The first, published in Nature Communications, introduced a membraneless electrochemical process that cuts energy requirements and costs for amine-based carbon dioxide capture during the acid gas sweetening process. Another, featured on the cover of ES&T Engineering, demonstrated a vanadium redox flow system capable of both capturing carbon and storing renewable energy.

“These publications reflect our group’s commitment to fundamental electrochemical innovation and real-world applicability,” Rahimi said in a news release. “From membraneless systems to scalable flow systems, we’re charting pathways to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and support the transition to a low-carbon economy.”

According to the researchers, the “A Membraneless Electrochemically Mediated Amine Regeneration for Carbon Capture” research paper marked the beginning of the team’s first focus. The research examined the replacement of costly ion-exchange membranes with gas diffusion electrodes. They found that the membranes were the most expensive part of the system, and they were also a major cause of performance issues and high maintenance costs.

The researchers achieved more than 90 percent CO2 removal (nearly 50 percent more than traditional approaches) by engineering the gas diffusion electrodes. According to PhD student and co-author of the paper Ahmad Hassan, the capture costs approximately $70 per metric ton of CO2, which is competitive with other innovative scrubbing techniques.

“By removing the membrane and the associated hardware, we’ve streamlined the EMAR workflow and dramatically cut energy use,” Hassan said in the news release. “This opens the door to retrofitting existing industrial exhaust systems with a compact, low-cost carbon capture module.”

The second breakthrough, published by PhD student Mohsen Afshari, displayed a reversible flow battery architecture that absorbs CO2 during charging and releases it upon discharge. The results suggested that the technology could potentially provide carbon removal and grid balancing when used with intermittent renewables, such as solar or wind power.

“Integrating carbon capture directly into a redox flow battery lets us tackle two challenges in one device,” Afshari said in the release. “Our front-cover feature highlights its potential to smooth out renewable generation while sequestering CO2.”

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Houston cleantech startup secures $134M to develop ‘superhot’ geothermal plant

deep round

Houston-based Quaise Energy, a producer of utility-scale geothermal power, raised $134 million in a Series B round to advance its “superhot” geothermal power plant.

Climate-focused San Francisco-based investment firm Prelude Ventures led the round, with participation from JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generation company, and Idemitsu Kosan, one of Japan’s largest energy companies. Nearly all existing investors, including cleantech-focused investment firm Safar Partners, participated in the round.

“We have backed Quaise since the beginning because we believed accessing superhot rock would unlock geothermal energy at a scale the world has never seen,” Mark Cupta, managing director at Prelude Ventures, said in a press release.

The startup expects more equity and debt deals to close “imminently.” Quaise has raised $230 million since its founding in 2018.

Quaise says some of the fresh funding will go toward building the world’s first commercial-scale “superhot” geothermal power plant —Project Obsidian in central Oregon. In addition, Quaise is earmarking money for continued development and commercialization of its millimeter-wave drilling system toward depths exceeding 5 kilometers (about 16,400 feet).

Quaise uses a millimeter-wave drilling system developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to remove rock at depths and temperatures that aren’t economically feasible with conventional drilling. With this technology, Quaise can reach rock at temperatures of around 570 degrees to 930 degrees in most places worldwide, enabling construction of geothermal systems that rival fossil fuels and nuclear energy in power density and that rival renewables in cost.

“Our ambition is to power civilization with Earth's most compelling energy source. This round takes us from field-proven technology to first commercial revenues,” Carlos Araque, co-founder, president and CEO of Quaise, added in the release.

Quaise has demonstrated the capability of its millimeter-wave drilling system at its Central Texas test site, drilling more than about 330 feet through granite in 2025—the first time the technology penetrated basement rock at full scale in the field. The company is approaching a depth of about 3,300 feet at the same site.

Construction of Project Obsidian is underway at Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest. The project, which has the potential to generate gigawatt-scale power, is slated to deliver electricity to the Pacific Northwest grid by 2030.

Shell expands lower-carbon energy solutions while cutting emissions

The View from HETI

Shell’s approach to sustainable development reflects an integrated value chain perspective—reducing emissions from oil and gas production, transforming downstream businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions, and building new energy businesses at scale. The company’s 31% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions since 2016 demonstrates that this integrated strategy delivers results.

Three Strategic Priorities Drive Progress

Leading Integrated Gas: Shell is growing its world-leading LNG business with lower carbon intensity, meeting rising demand for natural gas as a transition fuel and foundation for renewable energy integration.

Advantaged Upstream: The company is cutting emissions from oil and gas production while keeping output stable, proving that operational excellence can reduce environmental impact without sacrificing energy security.

Differentiated Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions: Shell is transforming its businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions while reducing sales of traditional oil products, positioning the company for the evolving energy market.

Shell’s emissions reductions are happening across global operations:

United States: Significant emissions cuts from production assets through operational efficiency and technology deployment

Malaysia & Philippines: Emissions reduction programs at offshore operations demonstrating that low-carbon production works in diverse environments

Norway: Continued emissions intensity improvements from mature assets, showing that even older fields can decarbonize

Whale Partnership Demonstrates Innovation

Shell’s recent partnership with Chevron at the Whale deepwater asset showcases what’s possible with next-generation project design. By integrating emissions reduction strategies from the start, the partnership has lowered the greenhouse gas intensity approximately 30% over the project lifecycle relative to similar deepwater oil and gas production assets.

Shell’s strategy to deliver more value with less emissions includes climate change transition plans, mitigation actions and decarbonization levers supported by a suite of processes and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets such as:

2025 Results:

Eliminated routine flaring from upstream operations

Maintained methane emissions intensity below 0.2%

By 2030:

Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control (vs. 2016)

Achieve near-zero methane emissions

Reduce Scope 3 net carbon intensity (NCI) by 15-20% (vs. 2016)

Cut customer emissions from oil products by 15-20% (vs. 2021)

By 2050:

Achieve net zero emissions across Scopes 1, 2, and 3

Across all strategic initiatives, Shell prioritizes trading and optimization capabilities that maximize value while minimizing emissions. This commercial approach ensures that the company’s energy transition strategy creates long-term shareholder value while advancing climate goals.

Shell is building an integrated energy business for the low-carbon future by delivering the energy products customers need today while investing in the solutions they’ll need tomorrow.

As a steering-level member of HETI, Shell exemplifies the leadership and commitment required to transform Houston’s energy sector while maintaining global energy security.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog . Explore Shell’s energy transition strategy at: https://www.shell.us/about-us/sustainability.html, and read the full analysis here: https://htxenergytransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/07.18.25-HETI-Leadership-Narrative-Report-V2_pages-1-2.pdf

UH report projects $1T in new midstream infrastructure needed to power AI era

midstream report

A new study from the University of Houston estimates that the U.S. will need more than $1 trillion in new midstream energy infrastructure investment by 2052 to meet the rising energy demands from data centers in the age of artificial intelligence.

According to the report, this would average $40 billion to $48 billion per year across investments in natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids, hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure.

UH, in collaboration with the INGAA Foundation and Wood and ESMIA Consultants, released the 2025 North American Midstream Infrastructure Report, which details the needs, pipelines and associated infrastructure necessary to meet global market needs and increased energy demands. UH led the consortium that conducted the analysis. Paul Doucette, hydrogen program officer at UH, served as the principal investigator of the report.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, data center energy consumption could reach 800 terawatt-hours annually by 2050, a roughly 167 percent increase from 300 terawatt-hours in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity generation from all energy sources is projected to reach 5,858 terawatt-hours in 2052, a 27 percent increase over current levels.

The report proposes two routes to meeting this level of demand.

The first scenario is a reference case based on current federal, state and provincial policies as of April 1, 2025. The second option presents a low-carbon scenario. The report concludes that natural gas would need to remain a “foundational component of the region’s energy system” in both scenarios.

“Meeting energy demand is a critical challenge right now, and this report quantifies the necessary midstream infrastructure and corresponding development dollars needed to meet that demand,” Hebe Shaw, executive director of the INGAA Foundation, said in a news release. “Meeting the energy needs of North America will require sustained investment and development, which must begin now to ensure a safe, reliable and affordable energy system.”

The report also identified several key midstream infrastructure requirements, including:

103,000 miles of new natural gas gathering pipelines
37,000 miles of additional natural gas transmission pipelines, which includes approximately 33,800 miles in the United States
24 million jobs over 25 years

The report adds that hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and other decarbonization strategies can help meet infrastructure needs.

UH released a condensed version of the report here.

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