New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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HETI discusses Houston’s energy leadership, from pathways to progress

The View From HETI

In 2024, RMI in collaboration with Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) and the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) mapped out ambitious scenarios for the region’s decarbonization journey. The report showed that with the right investments and technologies, Houston could achieve meaningful emissions reductions while continuing to power the world. That analysis painted a picture of what could be possible by 2030 and 2050.

Today, the latest HETI progress report shows Houston is not just planning anymore — the region is delivering.

Real results, right now

The numbers tell a compelling story. Since 2017, HETI’s member companies have invested more than $95 billion in low-carbon infrastructure, technologies, and R&D. That’s not a commitment for the future—that’s capital deployed, projects built, and operations transformed.

The results showed industry-wide reductions of 20% in total Scope 1 greenhouse gas emissions and a remarkable 55% decrease in methane emissions from global operations. These aren’t projections—they’re actual reductions happening across refineries, chemical plants, and production facilities throughout the Houston region.

How Houston is leading

What makes Houston’s approach work is its practical, technology-driven focus. Companies across the energy value chain are implementing solutions that work today:

Electrifying operations and integrating renewable power

Deploying advanced methane detection and elimination technologies

Upgrading equipment for greater efficiency

Capturing and storing carbon at commercial scale

Developing breakthrough technologies from geothermal to advanced nuclear

Take ExxonMobil’s Permian Basin electrification, Shell and Chevron’s lower-carbon Whale project, or BP’s massive Tangguh carbon capture project in Indonesia. These aren’t pilot programs—they’re multi-billion dollar investments demonstrating that decarbonization and energy production go hand in hand.

From scenarios to strategy

The RMI analysis identified three key pathways forward: enabling operational decarbonization, accelerating low-carbon technology scale-up, and creating carbon accounting mechanisms. Houston’s energy leaders have embraced all three.

The momentum is undeniable. Companies are setting ambitious 2030 and 2050 targets with clear roadmaps. New projects are reaching final investment decisions. Innovation ecosystems are flourishing. And critically, this progress is creating jobs and driving economic growth across the region.

Why this matters

Houston isn’t just managing the energy transition—it’s proving what’s possible when you combine world-class engineering expertise, integrated infrastructure, access to capital, and a commitment to both energy security and emissions reduction.

The dual challenge of delivering more energy with less emissions isn’t theoretical in Houston—it’s operational reality. Every ton of CO₂ reduced, every efficiency gain achieved, and every technology deployed demonstrates that we can meet growing global energy demand while making measurable progress on climate goals.

The path forward

The journey from last year’s scenarios to this year’s results shows something crucial: when industry, policymakers, and communities align around practical solutions, transformation accelerates.

Houston’s energy leadership isn’t about choosing between reliable energy and environmental progress, it’s about delivering both. And based on the progress we’re seeing, the momentum is only building.

———

Read the full analysis here. This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog . HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

TotalEnergies to supply solar power to new Google data centers in Texas

power deal

French energy company TotalEnergies, whose U.S. headquarters are in Houston, has signed power purchase agreements to supply 1 gigawatt of solar power for Google data centers in Texas over a 15-year span.

The power will be generated by TotalEnergies’ two solar farms that are being developed in Texas. Construction on the company’s Wichita site (805 megawatt-peak, or MWp) and Mustang Creek site (195 MWp) is scheduled to start in the second quarter of this year.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, U.S. vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a press release that the 1-gigawatt deal “highlights TotalEnergies’ strategy to deliver tailored renewable energy solutions that support the decarbonization goals of digital players, particularly data centers.”

The deal comes after California-based Clearway, in which TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent stake, secured an agreement to supply 1.2 gigawatts of solar power to Google data centers in Texas and other states.

“Supporting a strong, stable, affordable grid is a top priority as we expand our infrastructure,” said Will Conkling, director of clean energy and power at Google. “Our agreement with TotalEnergies adds necessary new generation to the local system, boosting the amount of affordable and reliable power supply available to serve the entire region.”

TotalEnergies maintains a 10-gigawatt-capacity portfolio of onshore solar, wind and battery storage assets in the U.S., including 5 gigawatts in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Other clean energy customers of TotalEnergies include Airbus, Air Liquide, Amazon, LyondellBasell, Merck and Microsoft.

UH lands $1.5M for endowed professorship and energy workforce initiative

funding the future

The University of Houston announced two major funding awards last month focused on energy transition initiatives and leadership.

Longtime UH supporters Peggy and Chris Seaver made a $1 million gift to the university to establish the Peggy and Chris Seaver Endowed Aspire Professorship, a faculty position “designed to strengthen UH Energy and expand the university’s leadership in addressing the most pressing global energy challenges,” according to a news release.

The new role is the third professorship appointed to UH Energy. The professorship can qualify for a dollar-for-dollar match through the Aspire Fund Challenge, a $50 million matching initiative launched by an anonymous donor.

“This gift will be key to cementing UH’s role as The Energy University,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, said in the release. “By recruiting a highly respected faculty member with international experience, we are further elevating UH Energy’s global profile while deepening our impact here in the energy capital of the world.”

Also in January, the university shared that it would be joining the Urban Enrichment Institute (UEI) and the City of Houston to help train the next generation of energy workers, thanks to a $560,000 grant.

The Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine awarded the funding to the UEI, a nonprofit that supports at-risk youth. It will allow the UEI to work with UH’s Energy Transition Institute and the Houston Health Department to launch “Spark Energy Futures: Equipping Youth and Communities for the Energy Transition.”

The new initiative is designed for Houstonians ages 16-25 and will provide hands-on experience, four months of STEM-based training, and industry-aligned certifications without a four-year degree. Participants can also earn credentials and job placement support.

“Our energy systems are going through unprecedented changes to address the growing energy demands in the United States, Gulf Coast and Texas,” Debalina Sengupta, assistant vice president and Chief Operating Officer of ETI at UH, said in a news release.“To meet growing demands, the energy supply, transmission, distribution and markets associated with an ever-increasing energy mix needs a workforce skilled in multidimensional aspects of energy, as well as the flexibility to switch as needed to provide affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to our population.”

Keith Cornelius, executive director of UEI, added that he expects about 50 students to participate in the program’s inaugural year and that the program is looking to attract those interested in entering the energy workforce without a college degree.

“We’re looking to have tremendous success with the Energy Transition Institute,” Cornelius said. “This program is a testament to what can be done between a community-based organization, a major university and the city.”

The award was part of a $2.7 million grant that will fund four projects in the Gulf region, including two others in Texas. The Gulf Research Program Awards also granted $748,175 to launch the “Building the South Texas Energy Workforce” initiative in in Kingsville, Texas and $728,000 for “Texas Green Careers Academy: Activating a New Generation of Energy Professionals” in Austin.

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