New forecast shows impact of 'Big Beautiful Bill' on Texas clean energy generation

energy forecast

A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

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Houston cleantech startup secures $134M to develop ‘superhot’ geothermal plant

deep round

Houston-based Quaise Energy, a producer of utility-scale geothermal power, raised $134 million in a Series B round to advance its “superhot” geothermal power plant.

Climate-focused San Francisco-based investment firm Prelude Ventures led the round, with participation from JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generation company, and Idemitsu Kosan, one of Japan’s largest energy companies. Nearly all existing investors, including cleantech-focused investment firm Safar Partners, participated in the round.

“We have backed Quaise since the beginning because we believed accessing superhot rock would unlock geothermal energy at a scale the world has never seen,” Mark Cupta, managing director at Prelude Ventures, said in a press release.

The startup expects more equity and debt deals to close “imminently.” Quaise has raised $230 million since its founding in 2018.

Quaise says some of the fresh funding will go toward building the world’s first commercial-scale “superhot” geothermal power plant —Project Obsidian in central Oregon. In addition, Quaise is earmarking money for continued development and commercialization of its millimeter-wave drilling system toward depths exceeding 5 kilometers (about 16,400 feet).

Quaise uses a millimeter-wave drilling system developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to remove rock at depths and temperatures that aren’t economically feasible with conventional drilling. With this technology, Quaise can reach rock at temperatures of around 570 degrees to 930 degrees in most places worldwide, enabling construction of geothermal systems that rival fossil fuels and nuclear energy in power density and that rival renewables in cost.

“Our ambition is to power civilization with Earth's most compelling energy source. This round takes us from field-proven technology to first commercial revenues,” Carlos Araque, co-founder, president and CEO of Quaise, added in the release.

Quaise has demonstrated the capability of its millimeter-wave drilling system at its Central Texas test site, drilling more than about 330 feet through granite in 2025—the first time the technology penetrated basement rock at full scale in the field. The company is approaching a depth of about 3,300 feet at the same site.

Construction of Project Obsidian is underway at Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest. The project, which has the potential to generate gigawatt-scale power, is slated to deliver electricity to the Pacific Northwest grid by 2030.

Shell expands lower-carbon energy solutions while cutting emissions

The View from HETI

Shell’s approach to sustainable development reflects an integrated value chain perspective—reducing emissions from oil and gas production, transforming downstream businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions, and building new energy businesses at scale. The company’s 31% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions since 2016 demonstrates that this integrated strategy delivers results.

Three Strategic Priorities Drive Progress

Leading Integrated Gas: Shell is growing its world-leading LNG business with lower carbon intensity, meeting rising demand for natural gas as a transition fuel and foundation for renewable energy integration.

Advantaged Upstream: The company is cutting emissions from oil and gas production while keeping output stable, proving that operational excellence can reduce environmental impact without sacrificing energy security.

Differentiated Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions: Shell is transforming its businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions while reducing sales of traditional oil products, positioning the company for the evolving energy market.

Shell’s emissions reductions are happening across global operations:

United States: Significant emissions cuts from production assets through operational efficiency and technology deployment

Malaysia & Philippines: Emissions reduction programs at offshore operations demonstrating that low-carbon production works in diverse environments

Norway: Continued emissions intensity improvements from mature assets, showing that even older fields can decarbonize

Whale Partnership Demonstrates Innovation

Shell’s recent partnership with Chevron at the Whale deepwater asset showcases what’s possible with next-generation project design. By integrating emissions reduction strategies from the start, the partnership has lowered the greenhouse gas intensity approximately 30% over the project lifecycle relative to similar deepwater oil and gas production assets.

Shell’s strategy to deliver more value with less emissions includes climate change transition plans, mitigation actions and decarbonization levers supported by a suite of processes and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets such as:

2025 Results:

Eliminated routine flaring from upstream operations

Maintained methane emissions intensity below 0.2%

By 2030:

Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control (vs. 2016)

Achieve near-zero methane emissions

Reduce Scope 3 net carbon intensity (NCI) by 15-20% (vs. 2016)

Cut customer emissions from oil products by 15-20% (vs. 2021)

By 2050:

Achieve net zero emissions across Scopes 1, 2, and 3

Across all strategic initiatives, Shell prioritizes trading and optimization capabilities that maximize value while minimizing emissions. This commercial approach ensures that the company’s energy transition strategy creates long-term shareholder value while advancing climate goals.

Shell is building an integrated energy business for the low-carbon future by delivering the energy products customers need today while investing in the solutions they’ll need tomorrow.

As a steering-level member of HETI, Shell exemplifies the leadership and commitment required to transform Houston’s energy sector while maintaining global energy security.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog . Explore Shell’s energy transition strategy at: https://www.shell.us/about-us/sustainability.html, and read the full analysis here: https://htxenergytransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/07.18.25-HETI-Leadership-Narrative-Report-V2_pages-1-2.pdf

UH report projects $1T in new midstream infrastructure needed to power AI era

midstream report

A new study from the University of Houston estimates that the U.S. will need more than $1 trillion in new midstream energy infrastructure investment by 2052 to meet the rising energy demands from data centers in the age of artificial intelligence.

According to the report, this would average $40 billion to $48 billion per year across investments in natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids, hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure.

UH, in collaboration with the INGAA Foundation and Wood and ESMIA Consultants, released the 2025 North American Midstream Infrastructure Report, which details the needs, pipelines and associated infrastructure necessary to meet global market needs and increased energy demands. UH led the consortium that conducted the analysis. Paul Doucette, hydrogen program officer at UH, served as the principal investigator of the report.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, data center energy consumption could reach 800 terawatt-hours annually by 2050, a roughly 167 percent increase from 300 terawatt-hours in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity generation from all energy sources is projected to reach 5,858 terawatt-hours in 2052, a 27 percent increase over current levels.

The report proposes two routes to meeting this level of demand.

The first scenario is a reference case based on current federal, state and provincial policies as of April 1, 2025. The second option presents a low-carbon scenario. The report concludes that natural gas would need to remain a “foundational component of the region’s energy system” in both scenarios.

“Meeting energy demand is a critical challenge right now, and this report quantifies the necessary midstream infrastructure and corresponding development dollars needed to meet that demand,” Hebe Shaw, executive director of the INGAA Foundation, said in a news release. “Meeting the energy needs of North America will require sustained investment and development, which must begin now to ensure a safe, reliable and affordable energy system.”

The report also identified several key midstream infrastructure requirements, including:

103,000 miles of new natural gas gathering pipelines
37,000 miles of additional natural gas transmission pipelines, which includes approximately 33,800 miles in the United States
24 million jobs over 25 years

The report adds that hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and other decarbonization strategies can help meet infrastructure needs.

UH released a condensed version of the report here.

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