A forecast from Energy Innovation Policy & Technology shows that Texas is expected to see a decline in solar, wind and battery-powered storage by 2035 due to clean energy tax credit repeals in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act.' Photo via Getty Images.

Texas is expected to see a 77-gigawatt decrease in power generation capacity within the next 10 years under the federal "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which President Trump recently signed into law, a new forecast shows.

Primarily due to the act’s repeal of some clean energy tax credits, a forecast, published by energy policy research organization Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, predicts that Texas is expected to experience a:

  • 54-gigawatt decline in capacity from solar power by 2035
  • 23-gigawatt decline in capacity from wind power by 2035
  • 3.1-gigawatt decline in capacity from battery-stored power by 2035
  • 2.5-gigawatt increase in capacity from natural gas by 2035

The legislation “will reduce additions of new, cost-effective electricity capacity in Texas, raising power prices for consumers and decreasing the state’s GDP and job growth in the coming years,” the forecast says.

The forecast also reports that the loss of sources of low-cost renewable energy and the resulting hike in natural gas prices could bump up electric bills in Texas. The forecast envisions a 23 percent to 54 percent hike in electric rates for residential, commercial and industrial customers in Texas.

Household energy bills are expected to increase by $220 per year by 2030 and by $480 per year by 2035, according to the forecast.

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology expects job growth and economic growth to also take a hit under the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The nonprofit organization foresees annual losses of $5.9 billion in Texas economic output (as measured by GDP) by 2030 and $10 billion by 2035. In tandem with the impact on GDP, Texas is projected to lose 42,000 jobs by 2030 and 94,000 jobs by 2035 due to the law’s provisions, according to the organization.

The White House believes the "Big Beautiful Bill" will promote, not harm, U.S. energy production. The law encourages the growth of traditional sources of power such as oil, natural gas, coal and hydropower.

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a historic piece of legislation that will restore energy independence and make life more affordable for American families by reversing disastrous Biden-era policies that constricted domestic energy production,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a news release.

Promoters of renewable energy offer an opposing viewpoint.

“The bill makes steep cuts to solar energy and places new restrictions on energy tax credits that will slow the deployment of residential and utility-scale solar while undermining the growth of U.S. manufacturing,” says the Solar Energy Industries Association.

Jason Grumet, CEO of the American Clean Power Association, complained that the legislation limits energy production, boosts prices for U.S. businesses and families, and jeopardizes the reliability of the country’s power grid.

“Our economic and national security requires that we support all forms of American energy,” Grumet said in a statement. “It is time for the brawlers to get out of the way and let the builders get back to work.”

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Japanese company plans $357M solar manufacturing plant in Houston area

coming soon

Japanese solar manufacturing company TOYO Co. Ltd. plans to invest $357 million to bring a 1.5-gigwatt solar cell manufacturing facility to the Houston area.

TOYO’s latest state-of-the-art facility will be co-located at its existing solar module site in Humble, according to a news release from the company. It will produce heterojunction (HJT) solar cells, which are known to be more durable and efficient with a higher heat threshold.

TOYO reports that the new facility will create 400 full-time manufacturing jobs. The project is expected to be completed in 20 months, which includes an initial pilot production.

"Expanding into domestic cell manufacturing is the natural next step in our commitment to creating an integrated onshore solar supply chain from polysilicon to panels," Takahiko Onozuka, chairman and CEO of TOYO, said in the news release. "Co-locating 1.5 GW of HJT cell capacity at our Houston module site significantly optimizes our capital allocation and infrastructure spend.”

TOYO entered the Houston market in 2024 through its acquisition of a majority stake in Solar Plus Technology Texas LLC.

Earlier this year, it began producing solar modules at its 567,140-square-foot plant in Lovett Industrial’s Nexus North Logistics Park. At the time, the company said it planned to expand manufacturing capacity to 6.5 gigawatts.

"The new cell plant reflects TOYO's long-term strategy to build a fully FEOC-compliant domestic manufacturing platform focused on serving the needs of the U.S. utility-scale solar market," Rhone Resch, TOYO's chief strategy officer, added in the release. "By producing premium solar products in the United States, we will be well positioned to meet the market's evolving domestic content requirements while strengthening supply chain security and reliability. Looking ahead, we believe HJT is the optimal technology platform for integrating next-generation perovskite solar cells, which we expect will drive the next major advancement in solar conversion efficiency and support TOYO's long-term technology roadmap.”

New survey reveals concerns over AI data center growth in Houston

data findings

A new report out of the University of Houston shows that area residents remain wary of the long-term effects of operating data centers.

The recent survey from the University of Houston’s latest SPACE City Panel, conducted by the Center for Public Policy at the Hobby School of Public Affairs, shows that while 85 percent of Houston-area residents use AI, nearly 63 percent oppose the construction of AI data centers within 1 mile of their homes.

Respondents’ concerns centered around data centers’ high energy demand and the area’s power grid reliability. According to the survey, 32 percent of residents who oppose local data center projects would be more likely to support the centers if they relied on renewable energy over fossil fuels.

“Respondents understand that AI can bring economic and educational benefits, but they are also concerned about the physical infrastructure needed to fuel AI, especially data centers,” Soran Mohtadi, post-doctoral fellow at the Hobby School and a researcher on the report, said in a news release. “This physical infrastructure demands more electricity and water, leading to environmental impacts.”

Experts estimate that 6.5 gigawatts of data center capacity will be added to the Texas grid by 2030. And Houston’s data center capacity is predicted to more than double by 2028.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas also projects electricity demand could reach 218 gigawatts by 2031, which would be more than double the record peak set in August 2023. Data centers are expected to account for 86 gigawatts of that new demand.

Survey respondents also said they are concerned about the state's future water supply, given the large amounts of water that data centers need to stay cool.

In terms of who’s responsible for that issue, 57.6 percent of respondents said they put the onus on Texas lawmakers, while 31.5 percent say tech companies should be responsible.

Additionally, more than 75 percent of respondents believed that data center developers and technology companies—not residents—should bear the cost of infrastructure upgrades to support data centers.

“Every decision legislators make has implications on residents’ everyday lives and local infrastructure now and in the future,” Maria P. Perez Arguelles, lead researcher on the report and research assistant professor at the Hobby School, added in the news release. “This issue is going to become more important in years to come, so this is just the beginning.”

Read the full report here.

---

This article originally appeared on our sister site, EnergyCapitalHTX.com.

American Airlines and Google ink record-breaking deal for cleaner jet fuel

SAF DEAL

Fort Worth-based American Airlines has sealed a record-breaking deal with tech giant Google to bolster the use of cleaner jet fuel.

The deal involves Google’s purchase of sustainable aviation fuel certificates tied to fuel that American will use at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, one of the airline’s hubs. These certificates enable companies like Google to pay for the environmental benefits of sustainable jet fuel without actually using the fuel.

American and Google say this is the largest publicly announced certificate deal between an airline and a corporate customer.

Google says environmental gains from the certificates will help it cut emissions from employees’ business travel.

The agreement covers 35 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel over three years, resulting in a nearly 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. American has agreed to buy the fuel from San Antonio-based Valero.

“Our industry-leading agreement with Google is a critical step forward in reducing emissions from our operations,” Jill Blickstein, American’s chief sustainability officer, said in a news release. “By working with leaders like Google who share our commitment to innovation, we’re helping to grow demand for [cleaner jet fuel] and support the development of a stronger, more resilient market.”

Sustainable aviation fuel can reduce emissions by up to 80 percent compared with traditional jet fuel. It is made from feedstocks, like waste oil and fats, or it can be produced synthetically using captured carbon dioxide and renewable electricity.

The aviation industry accounts for about 2.5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions around the world, according to the International Energy Agency.