data analysis

New report predicts major data center boom in Texas by 2028

A new report predicts that Texas will be home to 30 percent of the U.S. data center market by 2028. Photo via Chevron.com

Data centers are proving to be a massive economic force in Texas.

For instance, a new report from clean energy company Bloom Energy predicts Texas will see a 142 percent increase in its market share for data centers from 2025 to 2028. That would be the highest increase of any state.

Bloom Energy expects Texas to exceed 40 gigawatts of data-center capacity by 2028, representing a nearly 30 percent share of the U.S. market. A typical AI data center consumes 1 to 2 gigawatts of energy.

“Data center and AI factory developers can’t afford delays,” Natalie Sunderland, Bloom Energy’s chief marketing officer, said in the report. “Our analysis and survey results show that they’re moving into power‑advantaged regions where capacity can be secured faster — and increasingly designing campuses to operate independently of the grid.”

“The surge in AI demand creates a clear opportunity for states that can adapt to support large-scale AI deployments at speed,” Sunderland adds.

Further evidence of the data center explosion in Texas comes from ConstructConnect, a provider of data and software for contractors and manufacturers. ConstructConnect reported that in the 12-month span through November 2025, data-center construction starts in Texas accounted for $11 billion in spending. At $12.5 billion, only Louisiana surpassed the Texas total.

Capital expenses for U.S. data centers were expected to surpass $425 billion last year, according to ratings agency S&P Global.

ConstructConnect also reports that Texas is among five states collectively grabbing 80 percent of potential data center construction starts. Currently, Texas hosts around 400 data centers, with close to 60 of them in the Houston market.

A large pool of data-center construction spending in Texas is flowing from Google, which announced in November that it would earmark $40 billion for new AI data centers in the state.

“Texas leads in AI and tech innovation,” Gov. Greg Abbott proclaimed when the Google investment was unveiled.

Other studies and reports lay out just how much data centers are influencing economic growth in the Lone Star State:

  • A study by Texas Royalty Brokers indicates Texas leads the U.S. with 17 clusters of AI data centers. The study measured the density of AI data centers by counting the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) installed in those clusters. GPUs are specialized chips built to run AI models and perform complex calculations.
  • Citing data from construction consulting company FMI, The Wall Street Journal reported that spending on construction of data centers is expected to rise 23 percent in 2026 compared with last year. Much of that construction spending will happen in Texas. In the 12 months through November 2025, the average data center cost $597 million, according to ConstructConnect.
  • Data published in 2025 by commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows three Texas markets — Austin, Dallas and San Antonio — boast the lowest construction costs for data centers among the 19 U.S. markets that were analyzed. The mid-range of costs in that trio of markets is roughly $10.65 million per megawatt. Houston isn’t included in the data.

Although Houston isn’t cited in the Cushman & Wakefield data, it nonetheless is playing a major role in the data-center boom. Houston-area energy giants Chevron and ExxonMobil are chasing opportunities to supply natural gas as a power source for data centers, for example.

“As Houston rapidly evolves into a hub for AI, cloud computing, and data infrastructure, the city is experiencing a surge in data-center investments driven by its unique position at the intersection of energy, technology, and innovation,” says the Greater Houston Partnership.

Trending News

A View From HETI

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

Trending News