solar on the rise

Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A View From HETI

The officials say Harris County “has little to no authority” over the construction of data centers. Photo via HARC

Three Harris County officials are pushing for greater local control over the development and operation of data centers.

County Attorney Abby Kamin, County Commissioner Lesley Briones and County Commissioner Adrian Garcia recently called for action to give Harris County more power to regulate data centers.

As it stands now, Harris County “has little to no authority” over the construction of data centers, Briones said at a news conference. Harris County has 55 operating, under-construction, or planned data centers, according to a document filed with the county.

Briones outlined four steps being included in the Harris County commissioners’ exploration of potentially tighter local regulation of data centers:

  • Reviewing what Harris County can and cannot do regarding data centers
  • Creating a Harris County plan for the upcoming state legislative session aimed at granting more local control over data center construction and operations. State lawmakers would need to approve any changes in local control.
  • Establishing community “listening” sessions in Harris County about data centers
  • Notifying Harris County commissioners when a proposed data center seeks permits

Kamin noted Houston and Harris County lack zoning regulations, and the county’s 34 cities set their own zoning rules. Furthermore, she said, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has not issued a ruling on whether counties can impose a moratorium on development of data centers.

However, she said, “limited jurisdiction does not mean limited responsibility … New technology is arriving in our communities faster than our laws and institutions can keep up with, whether that’s data centers, AI or even drones.”

The effort by Kamin, Briones, and Garcia follows Gov. Greg Abbott’s recent statewide halt of new environmental and construction permits for data centers. State permitting is frozen until the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Public Utility Commission of Texas complete their review of data centers.

Their initiative also comes amid growing public concern over the amount of electricity and water gobbled up by data centers, as well as residents’ own rising electric and water bills.

Houston-based CenterPoint Energy expects to connect 8 gigawatts of new data-center loads in the Houston area by 2029, with about 4 gigawatts to follow, Kamin said. That, she said, would significantly increase peak power demand.

“No industry should get to monopolize or run roughshod over residents, public safety, and our critical natural resources,” Kamin said.

That being said, Kamin and Briones stressed they take pride in Houston being the Energy Capital of the World and Texas being an economic powerhouse.

“This isn’t about being against technology or new technology, but growth has to go hand in hand with accountability,” Kamin said.

Garcia said he’s open to welcoming data centers as good corporate neighbors, but not without protecting the people who live near these projects.

“I’ll keep an open mind,” he said, “but I want to know what will ultimately be the benefit to the community. And right now, I need tools [to do that].”

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