Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
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Houston startup strikes deal to develop hydrogen production plant in Canada

hydrogen partnership

Houston-based cleantech startup Vema Hydrogen has reached a tentative agreement with Canada-based CHARBONE Corp. to develop a hydrogen production and processing plant in Québec.

The deal would couple Vema’s production of engineered mineral hydrogen with CHARBONE’s purification, compression and distribution capabilities.

Engineered mineral hydrogen, also known as orange hydrogen, is produced underground by accelerating naturally occurring geochemical reactions in iron-rich rock formations, according to the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

“Across high-value markets — from aviation and maritime fuels to industrial gases — there is incredible demand for Vema’s low-carbon [hydrogen]. Now, more than ever, we need a pathway to deliver these low-carbon fuels,” Pierre Levin, CEO of Vema, said in a news release.

The project would enable Vema to expand into emerging markets like low-carbon maritime and aviation fuel, e-fuels and power generation. Incorporating CHARBONE’s capabilities, the agreement would also support Québec’s hydrogen supply chain.

“The market is demanding high-value industrial gases, and our customers need cleaner, more reliable supply. By pairing Vema’s [hydrogen] feedstock with our purification and distribution capabilities, we’re strengthening Québec’s position as a regional hub for next-generation hydrogen,” Dave Gagnon, CEO of CHARBONE, added in the release.

Vema said in February that it had completed drilling of its first two pilot wells in Québec, making them the world’s first pilot well for orange hydrogen. It’s the first time Vema’s technology has been used outside a lab.

“This pilot will provide the critical data needed to validate [our hydrogen] at commercial scale and demonstrate that Quebec can lead the world in this emerging clean energy category,” Levin said. “The quality of the rock within our core samples is exactly what we expected and is very promising for hydrogen yields.”

Shortly before Vema carried out the pilot drilling, it signed a 10-year deal with California-based energy technology company Verne Power to supply clean hydrogen for California data centers. Over the course of the 10-year agreement, Vema will boost annual production of orange hydrogen to more than 36,000 metric tons.

“There is a robust market for baseload power generation across the U.S., where data centers are straining the grid,” Levin said. “As we power California’s fastest-growing markets with clean hydrogen, we look toward expanding our hydrogen to markets globally and supporting AI-driven power hubs.”

Vema, founded two years ago, raised $13 million in seed funding in 2025.

“The energy transition and emerging uses of hydrogen have spurred demand for clean hydrogen,” Levin said in its funding announcement. “However, existing decarbonized hydrogen production methods simply don’t work — they are too costly and energy-intensive. Vema is here to change that. It’s time to unlock a new era of scalable, low-carbon hydrogen.”

Greentown names 5 climatech startups to manufacturing accelerator

Catalyst Cohort

Greentown Labs has named five climatech startups to its Go Make 2026 cohort, including one from Houston.

Greentown Go Make 2026 is in partnership with Shell Catalysts & Technologies and Technip Energies. Startups will be able to collaborate with leadership from Shell and Technip and have opportunities to work directly with their process engineering teams and develop potential partnerships, pilots and demonstrations, according to Greentown.

This year's manufacturing cohort focuses specifically on process technology and catalytic innovations, which, according to Greentown, have the potential to be a "critical enabler of the global energy transition." Greentown shares that 90 percent of chemical processes depend on catalysis, but traditional methods rely on fossil fuels and consume significant amounts of energy.

“Catalysis underpins the majority of industrial chemical processes, which together account for a significant share of global emissions, making it a critical lever for reducing carbon intensity while improving performance,” Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown, said in a news release. “Greentown Go Make 2026 is designed to close the gap between breakthrough innovation and industrial deployment. By connecting startups with Shell and Technip Energies’ technical expertise and global scale, we’re helping accelerate solutions that improve efficiency and drive industrial decarbonization.”

The five Greentown Go Make 2026 companies include:

  • Houston-based Biosimo, which makes scalable biochemicals from ethanol
  • Missouri-based Catalyxx, which transforms bioethanol into drop-in, cost-competitive, carbon-negative chemicals
  • Sydney, Australia-based HydGene Renewables, which produces low-carbon hydrogen and industrial chemicals from waste biomass
  • Switzerland-based TreaTech, which turns waste into renewable gas, water and minerals through catalytic hydrothermal gasification
  • California-based Unifuel, which has developed a chemical technology platform to make sustainable aviation fuel, renewable gasoline and other renewable chemicals

The cohort will be celebrated at a kickoff event in Houston at The Ion on June 9.

In addition to Greentown Go Make, Greentown also runs its Go Move (transportation), Go Energize (energy and electricity), Go Build (buildings), and Go Grow (food and agriculture) cohort-based programs. The climatech incubator announced its Go Build 2026 cohort in March. Read more here.