Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

From Your Site Articles

A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

UH report says CO2 technology could unlock 137B barrels of U.S. oil

oil recovery

A new report from the University of Houston estimates that a method known as carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) could recover roughly 137 billion barrels of U.S. oil—with Texas and the Gulf Coast poised to play a major role.

A UH Energy-produced white paper, titled “Revitalization of Mature Oil Fields: Opportunities and Challenges of CO2-EOR,” looks at how CO2-EOR could increase U.S. energy supply, reduce carbon emissions and lower the carbon intensity of oil production.

CO2-EOR injects pressurized carbon dioxide into mature oil wells to loosen and push oil trapped underground toward the production wells, allowing operators to extract oil typically left behind. The process permanently stores some CO2 underground, reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity.

“Injected CO2 works to revitalize mature oil fields by reducing oil viscosity, improving sweep efficiency and restoring reservoir pressure, resulting in incremental oil production beyond primary and secondary recovery,” the report reads. “CO2-EOR also supports permanent carbon storage and by virtue of this will produce uniquely low-carbon intensity oil for global markets.”

Authored by Charles McConnell, executive director of UH's Center for Carbon Management in Energy, and Zhiyuan Li, a UH petroleum engineering doctoral candidate, the paper says that much of the opportunity lies right under the feet of Texas oil companies.

Texas and the Gulf Coast, including its offshore resources, have half of the nation's oil resources considered favorable for the CO2-EOR technology, the report says. According to UH, conventional U.S. oil reservoirs contain 624 billion barrels, with 434 billion barrels still underground, including about 20 billion barrels of proven reserves.

Still, the paper argues that the economics behind CO2-EOR need to be considered. The process’ success depends on a number of factors, including costs of carbon capture, field redevelopment, operations, monitoring, transportation and available tax incentives, according to UH.

Logistically, developing CO2-EOR operations out of older wells and infrastructure presents pros and cons. While using older wells can be more economical, aging infrastructure may require more frequent monitoring, inspection, repair or re-plugging, according to UH.

Ultimately, the report recommends focusing CO2-EOR development on mature oil fields with existing infrastructure, well-understood geology and reliable CO2 supplies. This approach, UH says, could help extend the productive life of existing oil fields while supporting “lower carbon intensity oil for global markets and a significant contribution to energy security.”

Read the full report here.

Amazon's EV robotaxi service Zook is set to arrive in Houston

EV News

Amazon-owned electric robotaxi ride-hailing service Zoox is zooming into Houston in September.

Initially, self-driving retrofitted SUVs with safety drivers on board will serve downtown Houston, centrally located tourist hotspots, and certain residential neighborhoods. The SUVs will test Houston roads before Zoox rolls out autonomous robotaxis, the company says.

Zoox takes Houston for a test drive

At the outset, Zoox says, a limited number of vehicles will be driven by people to gather data about Houston roads.

“This helps create a detailed picture of each street, from road geometry to traffic lights,” the company says. “Once we have mapped out an area, we will test autonomous driving capabilities. Safety and operational readiness govern the pace of our rollout.”

Zoox says its robotaxi differs from vehicles operated by other ride-hailing services.

The all-electric robotaxi “is purpose-built for autonomous ride-hailing and designed for riders from day one,” the company says. “It has no traditional driving controls and instead has carriage-style seating, sliding glass doors, and features that let the rider personalize their journey.”

To help manage the fleet, Zoox plans to open a depot in Houston for vehicle charging and maintenance, a representative says via email.

Along with Houston, Zoox is launching this month in San Diego. The ride-hailing service already operates in Austin, Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

Zoox breaks into “sprawling” Houston market

Zoox describes Houston as its “most sprawling market to date.”

“Driving here means navigating complex service-road networks, unique merging scenarios, and challenging environmental conditions, including severe heat, heavy rain, and urban flooding,” the company says. “It’s a rigorous test of our technology across geography and terrain.”

Zoox will join two other autonomous ride-hailing services in Houston:

Waymo began rolling in Houston in February. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, owns Waymo.
Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla began offering robotaxi services earlier this year.

A third Zoox competitor is arriving within the next year. A partnership comprising rideshare provider Uber, EV manufacturer Lucid, and autonomous technology company Nuro plans to launch a robotaxi service in Houston by mid-2027.

---

This article originally appeared on CultureMap.com.

San Antonio company breaks ground on 347MW solar project outside of Houston

coming soon

Crews have broken ground on the forthcoming 347-megawatt direct-current SunRoper Solar project in Wharton County, Texas, that will add capacity to the ERCOT grid.

The solar project, which is slated to begin operations in December 2027, will provide electricity to an undisclosed Fortune 100 company under a long-term power purchase agreement, according to a news release.

San Antonio’s OCI Energy and Israel's Arava Power are developing the project. It's being financed by ING Capital and constructed by Louisiana-based WHC Inc. The project received $394 million in construction financing in February.

"SunRoper demonstrates how strategic partnerships can help meet Texas' growing demand for electricity through investments in critical energy infrastructure," Sabah Bayatli, president of OCI Energy, said in the release.

Project partners, landowners and company executives attended a groundbreaking event for SunRoper on Sept. 1 at the site outside of the Houston metro area. The companies say they are advancing this energy project to strengthen grid reliability and to help deliver affordable power to one of the highest-demand areas in the state.

“WHC is proud to serve as EPC contractor on the SunRoper Solar project, bringing our construction expertise to bear on a facility that will deliver meaningful power to the Houston region,” Randel Badeaux, president of power North America for WHC, added in the news release. “This groundbreaking reflects months of careful planning and coordination with OCI Energy, Arava Power and our project partners, and we look forward to executing a safe, high-quality build through to completion in 2027.”

OCI Energy currently operates several utility-scale solar and battery energy storage system projects outside of the San Antonio area, and has five other projects under construction outside of San Antonio and Waco, with more than 30 under development in Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, Colorado and Alberta, Canada. The company also has existing projects in New Jersey and Georgia.

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME