Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

TotalEnergies will supply power to Google data centers from two Texas solar farms under development. Photo via totalenergies.us

TotalEnergies to supply solar power to new Google data centers in Texas

power deal

French energy company TotalEnergies, whose U.S. headquarters are in Houston, has signed power purchase agreements to supply 1 gigawatt of solar power for Google data centers in Texas over a 15-year span.

The power will be generated by TotalEnergies’ two solar farms that are being developed in Texas. Construction on the company’s Wichita site (805 megawatt-peak, or MWp) and Mustang Creek site (195 MWp) is scheduled to start in the second quarter of this year.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, U.S. vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a press release that the 1-gigawatt deal “highlights TotalEnergies’ strategy to deliver tailored renewable energy solutions that support the decarbonization goals of digital players, particularly data centers.”

The deal comes after California-based Clearway, in which TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent stake, secured an agreement to supply 1.2 gigawatts of solar power to Google data centers in Texas and other states.

“Supporting a strong, stable, affordable grid is a top priority as we expand our infrastructure,” said Will Conkling, director of clean energy and power at Google. “Our agreement with TotalEnergies adds necessary new generation to the local system, boosting the amount of affordable and reliable power supply available to serve the entire region.”

TotalEnergies maintains a 10-gigawatt-capacity portfolio of onshore solar, wind and battery storage assets in the U.S., including 5 gigawatts in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Other clean energy customers of TotalEnergies include Airbus, Air Liquide, Amazon, LyondellBasell, Merck and Microsoft.

A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Sun Day Houston will be held this Sunday, Sept. 21. Photo via Upslash.

Houston solar rally, renewable energy celebration to take place this weekend

where to be

Local organizations will celebrate solar, wind and renewable energy this Sunday, Sept. 21, during Sun Day Houston.

Timed with the autumn equinox, the inaugural event will bring together speakers, exhibits, workshops and hands-on activities that promote the adoption of clean power sources outside of Christ the King Lutheran Church at 2353 Rice Blvd., near Rice University. It will take place from 2-4:30 p.m.

Featured speakers include:

  • Daniel Cohan, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice, who will speak on the science of renewable energy and its growing role in ERCOT and the national U.S. energy grid
  • Andrea Oyuela, manager of the Harris County Solar for All program, who will speak on Harris County’s efforts to expand solar energy access to underserved communities and the county's leadership role in the Texas Solar for All Coalition

Attendees will also be able to participate in mobile solar and home solar battery displays, an electric vehicle show-and-tell, and a rain barrel workshop. Other workshops include the Tips and Tricks for Going Solar Workshop and the Welcoming the Energy Transition Workshop.

Exhibits will be hosted by:

  • Harris County Sustainability Division
  • Solar United Neighbors
  • Environment Texas
  • Public Citizen
  • Houston Chapter, Citizens Climate Lobby
  • Texas Campaign for the Environment
  • Houston Electric Vehicle Association
  • Houston Climate Boulder Project
  • Turtle Island Restoration Network
  • Climate Conversation Brazoria County
  • Sunrise Movement
  • Rice Wildlife Conservation Corps

Sun Day Houston is part of hundreds of Sun Day events worldwide. TH!RD ACT, a national nonprofit founded by environmentalist Bill McKibben, is serving as the primary sponsor. It is co-sponsored by 22 Gulf Coast environmental organizations, including Sierra Club of Houston, Harris County Sustainability Division, the Green Building Council, and many others. Find more information here.

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American Airlines and Google ink record-breaking deal for cleaner jet fuel

SAF DEAL

Fort Worth-based American Airlines has sealed a record-breaking deal with tech giant Google to bolster the use of cleaner jet fuel.

The deal involves Google’s purchase of sustainable aviation fuel certificates tied to fuel that American will use at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, one of the airline’s hubs. These certificates enable companies like Google to pay for the environmental benefits of sustainable jet fuel without actually using the fuel.

American and Google say this is the largest publicly announced certificate deal between an airline and a corporate customer.

Google says environmental gains from the certificates will help it cut emissions from employees’ business travel.

The agreement covers 35 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel over three years, resulting in a nearly 300,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. American has agreed to buy the fuel from San Antonio-based Valero.

“Our industry-leading agreement with Google is a critical step forward in reducing emissions from our operations,” Jill Blickstein, American’s chief sustainability officer, said in a news release. “By working with leaders like Google who share our commitment to innovation, we’re helping to grow demand for [cleaner jet fuel] and support the development of a stronger, more resilient market.”

Sustainable aviation fuel can reduce emissions by up to 80 percent compared with traditional jet fuel. It is made from feedstocks, like waste oil and fats, or it can be produced synthetically using captured carbon dioxide and renewable electricity.

The aviation industry accounts for about 2.5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions around the world, according to the International Energy Agency.

CenterPoint reports grid resilience updates as hurricane season begins

hurricane readiness

As hurricane season descends upon the region, CenterPoint Energy has shared the latest update on its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative (GHRI) that’s been working to make grid upgrades and introduce weather-related tech since 2024.

As of April 2026, CenterPoint had:

  • Replaced more than 65,000 poles with stronger storm-resistant infrastructure
  • Trimmed or cleared more than 10,000 miles of vegetation
  • Undergrounded more than 500 miles of power lines
  • Installed more than 600 automation devices
  • Installed more than 150 weather stations

In May, CenterPoint announced its new Community Progress Tracker, which helps residents track electronic infrastructure improvements. In terms of other technology, CenterPoint has announced its partnership with weather, wildfire and flood modeling software Technosylva. The software is expected to help CenterPoint track weather conditions in advance to better prepare crews.

CenterPoint has also added 150 weather stations to improve weather monitoring, conducted a full-scale hurricane response exercise involving more than 400 employees and completed more than 25,000 hours of FEMA training across more than 800 employees. The company opened a new year-round Emergency Operations Center to help coordinate with emergency response partners, local and state officials, and media during major weather events.

“We are proud of the progress made in 2025, which helped deliver more than 100 million fewer outage minutes when compared to 2024, and we are determined to make even more progress in 2026 as we work toward our defining goal: building the nation's most resilient coastal grid,” Nathan Brownell, CenterPoint's vice president of resilience and capital delivery, previously said in a news release.

According to the company, the GHRI aims to improve overall grid resiliency and reliability and to reduce outages for customers. CenterPoint projects its efforts can reduce customer outages by 150 million by the end of 2026.

Energy expert: Why Houston's 100-degree days matter more than 5 years ago

guest column

If you are a Houston native or have lived in the city since the 1980s, you likely remember when a 100-degree day was so rare it made the local news. There were heat advisory warnings, with special attention to the midday hours, because the heat exposure carried with it risks like dehydration, heat stroke and extreme exposure to UV rays.

In this new era for our city and state, 100-degree days are becoming more common. Our local weather forecasters still report on the occurrence, but we are no longer able to restrict our activities as heavily.

The climate has changed rapidly, and Texans are navigating our collective response to the increased heat that has serious implications for our health, energy supply, economy and regional life.

Houston Has Always Been Hot, But This Heat is Different

Houston has expanded exponentially in the last few decades, doubling its population from roughly 1.4 million in 1976 to 2.4 million today. When we account for the growth in the surrounding suburbs, the population boom nearly quintuples.

Houston and the surrounding suburbs now total nearly 7 million people, a huge population increase that brings greater demand for energy. This demand impacts our infrastructure, energy availability, consumer costs, workforce productivity and water supply significantly. With these additions comes more asphalt and fewer trees. With less tree cover and green space, heat gets trapped, increasing temperatures in the city.

We are not just inheriting rising temperatures; we are also building hotter cities.

100-Degree Days and The Texas Grid

I have written before about our grid capacity, changes facing Texas, and the strain that we have seen on the grid. While redundancies in the Texas grid are improving, the pace of this change continues to pose challenges for our area.

The extreme heat has now made air conditioning mandatory for a greater percentage of days during the calendar year. AC units (large and small) are no longer cycling on and off as they are designed to run; instead, most systems are running continuously to meet the needs of Texans.

Daily activities and devices, including remote work, the AI boom, physical exercise, children’s playtime, charging multiple devices, and streaming entertainment, require much more cooling than in previous generations, producing a much larger demand on the grid.

Additionally, the way Houstonians live at home has also changed. Homes across America are much larger on average than they were in the 1980’s. Also, with the rise of remote work, there is a greater need for all-day electricity in each individual household. These factors, combined with the exponential increase in the number of devices and appliances used in households, significantly affect energy demand in our region.

Of course, we’re also seeing massive usage of electricity from large business users (warehouses, data centers, and more), including empty office buildings as return-to-office is slower than expected post-pandemic.

Heat is Not the Only Culprit

As Houston is a coastal city, we not only have to contend with 100-degree temperatures, but humidity also adds an extra layer of complexity to our climate. Thanks to the humidity, temperatures stay elevated for longer periods, meaning everything is retaining heat at a higher rate and for longer than ever before.

The heat never really leaves us anymore, as we don’t have cooler nights to help balance these very hot days. The compounding effect of extreme temperatures and high humidity makes energy demand higher in our region than in places like the New Mexico desert.

Economic Impact on Our Region

Extreme heat hits Texans’ wallets long before a weather alert ever pops up. When temperatures stay above 100 degrees for days at a time, air conditioners are basically working overtime, which sends electricity bills climbing.

And the harder those systems run, the more wear and tear homeowners end up dealing with, usually at the worst possible time, like the middle of July when a boom of AC units decide to quit at once. Meanwhile, roads, transformers and other infrastructure are all under more stress than they were originally built for.

There’s also a much bigger ripple effect that people don’t always think about. When it’s dangerously hot outside, construction crews, energy workers, landscapers, and other outdoor industries simply can’t operate the same way, which slows productivity and raises safety concerns.

Cities are also spending more money on cooling centers and heat-related emergency response, and over time, all of those rising costs have a way of showing up somewhere, whether that’s insurance rates, utility costs or the price communities pay to keep up with extreme weather.

The Opportunity for Houston

Texas is becoming a real-time test case for what happens when extreme heat, rapid growth, and massive energy demand all hit at once. While problematic, it also creates a huge opportunity for Houston and the Texas energy sector to lead. If there’s any place equipped to determine what the future of energy resilience looks like, it’s the city that already powers so much of the world’s energy conversation.

And the solution isn’t just “create more electricity.” It’s about building a smarter, more flexible system overall with better grid technology, battery storage, stronger infrastructure, more efficient building, and energy systems that can handle these extreme weather swings without everything feeling stressed at once. The reality is that a lot of what Texas figures out over the next few years could become the blueprint for other cities and states across the country.

Houston is already testing some of these smarter resilience strategies, such as microgrids, stronger substations, and more flexible energy systems designed to keep critical facilities running during major storms or outages. The goal is simple: build a grid that can take a hit without everything feeling strained all at once.

Going Forward

Hotter days are here to stay. We can’t stop our lives amid the extreme heat, so we have to find ways to adapt and we have to do it quickly. If there’s one thing Texas has always done well, however, it’s innovate under pressure. The communities, companies and energy leaders that move fastest now won’t just be responding to the future, they’ll be helping define it.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.