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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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TotalEnergies will supply power to Google data centers from two Texas solar farms under development. Photo via totalenergies.us

TotalEnergies to supply solar power to new Google data centers in Texas

power deal

French energy company TotalEnergies, whose U.S. headquarters are in Houston, has signed power purchase agreements to supply 1 gigawatt of solar power for Google data centers in Texas over a 15-year span.

The power will be generated by TotalEnergies’ two solar farms that are being developed in Texas. Construction on the company’s Wichita site (805 megawatt-peak, or MWp) and Mustang Creek site (195 MWp) is scheduled to start in the second quarter of this year.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, U.S. vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a press release that the 1-gigawatt deal “highlights TotalEnergies’ strategy to deliver tailored renewable energy solutions that support the decarbonization goals of digital players, particularly data centers.”

The deal comes after California-based Clearway, in which TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent stake, secured an agreement to supply 1.2 gigawatts of solar power to Google data centers in Texas and other states.

“Supporting a strong, stable, affordable grid is a top priority as we expand our infrastructure,” said Will Conkling, director of clean energy and power at Google. “Our agreement with TotalEnergies adds necessary new generation to the local system, boosting the amount of affordable and reliable power supply available to serve the entire region.”

TotalEnergies maintains a 10-gigawatt-capacity portfolio of onshore solar, wind and battery storage assets in the U.S., including 5 gigawatts in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Other clean energy customers of TotalEnergies include Airbus, Air Liquide, Amazon, LyondellBasell, Merck and Microsoft.

A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Sun Day Houston will be held this Sunday, Sept. 21. Photo via Upslash.

Houston solar rally, renewable energy celebration to take place this weekend

where to be

Local organizations will celebrate solar, wind and renewable energy this Sunday, Sept. 21, during Sun Day Houston.

Timed with the autumn equinox, the inaugural event will bring together speakers, exhibits, workshops and hands-on activities that promote the adoption of clean power sources outside of Christ the King Lutheran Church at 2353 Rice Blvd., near Rice University. It will take place from 2-4:30 p.m.

Featured speakers include:

  • Daniel Cohan, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice, who will speak on the science of renewable energy and its growing role in ERCOT and the national U.S. energy grid
  • Andrea Oyuela, manager of the Harris County Solar for All program, who will speak on Harris County’s efforts to expand solar energy access to underserved communities and the county's leadership role in the Texas Solar for All Coalition

Attendees will also be able to participate in mobile solar and home solar battery displays, an electric vehicle show-and-tell, and a rain barrel workshop. Other workshops include the Tips and Tricks for Going Solar Workshop and the Welcoming the Energy Transition Workshop.

Exhibits will be hosted by:

  • Harris County Sustainability Division
  • Solar United Neighbors
  • Environment Texas
  • Public Citizen
  • Houston Chapter, Citizens Climate Lobby
  • Texas Campaign for the Environment
  • Houston Electric Vehicle Association
  • Houston Climate Boulder Project
  • Turtle Island Restoration Network
  • Climate Conversation Brazoria County
  • Sunrise Movement
  • Rice Wildlife Conservation Corps

Sun Day Houston is part of hundreds of Sun Day events worldwide. TH!RD ACT, a national nonprofit founded by environmentalist Bill McKibben, is serving as the primary sponsor. It is co-sponsored by 22 Gulf Coast environmental organizations, including Sierra Club of Houston, Harris County Sustainability Division, the Green Building Council, and many others. Find more information here.

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Canada-founded energy tech company moves global HQ to Energy Corridor

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Pulsed-power technology company BlueSpark Energy will open its new global headquarters in Houston’s Energy Corridor to house its engineering, research and development, manufacturing, commercial and digital teams.

“Houston isn’t simply our new headquarters; it’s where a new BlueSpark begins,” Kahina Abdeli-Galinier, president and CEO of BlueSpark, said in a news release. ”We’re building the well health technology the industry needs to get more from existing wells, reduce intervention costs and keep wells producing for longer. Our new home brings us closer to our customers and places us at the heart of one of the most exciting markets in the industry, with the talent pool to match.”

The company, which began in Calgary, plans to grow its Houston workforce to 100 employees by the end of 2028, while the manufacturing element is expected to be operational in February 2027.

According to BlueSpark, the new facility will feature double the manufacturing floorspace of its current site, and the extra space will allow it to scale its tool manufacturing.

The headquarters is on West Sam Houston Parkway. BlueSpark's Chief Technology Officer Matt Mohajer and Chief Commercial Officer Zach Wilbur are already leading teams at the new space, according to the release.

BlueSpark develops pulsed-power technology that uses electrical energy to clean oil and gas well components, remove scale buildup and restore production without damaging equipment. Its technology helps operators reduce downtime, improve well performance and extend the productive life of existing wells.

Late last year, the company named Kahina Abdeli-Galinier as its CEO. It has since rebranded and focused on expanding its technology into new applications, including plugging and abandonment, cement removal and water services.

“We’re investing heavily in our technology, both the physics and the intelligence and delivery layer around it,” Abdeli-Galinier added in the release. “Having our engineering, manufacturing, digital, R&D and commercial teams in one place allows us to move much faster, giving our customers the tools they need to keep wells healthy and producing more for longer.”

Houston energy startups named finalists for 2026 Innovation Awards

Meet the Innovators

InnovationMap.com, EnergyCaptialHTX's sister website, has revealed the finalists for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, and the local energy sector is well-represented throughout the awards.

The sixth annual Houston Innovation Awards program returns in an all-digital format this fall to honor the best of Houston's innovation ecosystem, including startups, entrepreneurs, mentors, and more.

Finalists were determined by an esteemed panel of judges. The panel reviewed applications across 10 prestigious categories to determine our finalists. They will select the winner for each category, except for Startup of the Year, which will be chosen by the public via online voting launching later this month.

We will announce the honoree of our annual Trailblazer Award in the coming weeks, then stay tuned as we unveil all of this year's winners on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Without further ado, here are the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists:

Minority-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by BIPOC or LGBTQ+ representation:

  • AI Made Fun
  • Deep Anchor Solutions
  • HEXAspec
  • Prana Surgical
  • Torres Orbital Mining Inc.

Female-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by a woman:

  • Adair
  • ARIX Technologies
  • Bairitone Health
  • FlowCellutions
  • ParaDocs Health

Energy Transition Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing a solution within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy and beyond:

  • Capwell Services
  • FlowCellutions
  • Hertha Metals
  • Mars Materials
  • Solidec

Health Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup within the health and medical technology sectors:

  • Bairitone Health
  • InformAI Inc.
  • Prana Surgical
  • Skybound MedTech

Deep Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing technology solutions based on substantial scientific or engineering challenges, including those in the AI, robotics and space sectors:

  • Casimir
  • Focis AI
  • Machine Saver Inc.
  • Square Robot
  • Venus Aerospace

Startup of the Year (People's Choice)

Honoring a startup celebrating a recent milestone or success. The winner will be selected by the community via an online voting experience:

  • Fluxworks
  • IronLattice
  • Lumino
  • Progress Report
  • Rosarium Health
  • Thread
  • TokenRoster

Scaleup of the Year

Honoring an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth:

  • Erock
  • Hertha Metals
  • Venus Aerospace

Incubator/Accelerator of the Year

Honoring a local incubator or accelerator that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups:

  • Activate
  • Impact Hub Houston
  • MarMo Innovation

Mentor of the Year

Honoring an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs:

  • Al Danto, Rice University
  • Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures
  • Jeremy Pitts, Activate
  • Joe Alapat, Liongard
  • Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship
  • Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Trailblazer Recipient

  • To be announced

Energy AI company opens first U.S. office in Houston after Halliburton deal

houston expansion

Building on its partnership with Houston-based oilfield services provider Halliburton, energy-sector AI company Shape Digital recently opened an office at The Ion. It’s the company’s first U.S. location.

Shape Digital’s workforce in Houston includes employees specializing in tech support, business development and client services. The company’s local hiring projections and headcount weren’t available. The new office will be located within Industrious at the Ion, according to Rice Alliance.

A key driver of the new Houston office: The company forecasts North America will account for more than 20 percent of its business in 2027.

“North America is a critical market for industrial innovation, and Houston sits at the center of companies driving that progress,” Caio Sene, vice president of client services at Shape Digital, said in a release. “Growing our presence here allows us to work alongside operators as they look for practical ways to turn existing operational data into clear recommendations for what to do next.”

Shape Digital, which also has offices in Singapore and Brazil, develops decision-making platforms for the oil and gas sector.

The Ion District office gives Shape Digital a presence close to Halliburton’s headquarters. In May, the two companies forged a partnership to combine Halliburton’s Digital Field Solverdecision-making system with Shape Digital’s AI portfolio.

Shape Digital layers AI software atop existing operations data rather than replacing legacy systems or adding new software.

The company’s suite of AI agents draws on more than 200 operations-monitoring algorithms, continually learning from company and industry data. The suite comprises four products: Shape Aura, Shape Lighthouse, Shape Lumen and Shape Reef.

Shape Digital says that by working with a customer’s existing operations data, it can deliver ROI in less than two months without any additional investment in equipment or infrastructure.

The company is a 2021 spinoff of Japan-based Modec. Modec builds, owns, and operates floating offshore oil and gas production facilities. Its Modec America subsidiary is based in Houston.

This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

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