Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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TotalEnergies will supply power to Google data centers from two Texas solar farms under development. Photo via totalenergies.us

TotalEnergies to supply solar power to new Google data centers in Texas

power deal

French energy company TotalEnergies, whose U.S. headquarters are in Houston, has signed power purchase agreements to supply 1 gigawatt of solar power for Google data centers in Texas over a 15-year span.

The power will be generated by TotalEnergies’ two solar farms that are being developed in Texas. Construction on the company’s Wichita site (805 megawatt-peak, or MWp) and Mustang Creek site (195 MWp) is scheduled to start in the second quarter of this year.

Marc-Antoine Pignon, U.S. vice president for renewables at TotalEnergies, said in a press release that the 1-gigawatt deal “highlights TotalEnergies’ strategy to deliver tailored renewable energy solutions that support the decarbonization goals of digital players, particularly data centers.”

The deal comes after California-based Clearway, in which TotalEnergies holds a 50 percent stake, secured an agreement to supply 1.2 gigawatts of solar power to Google data centers in Texas and other states.

“Supporting a strong, stable, affordable grid is a top priority as we expand our infrastructure,” said Will Conkling, director of clean energy and power at Google. “Our agreement with TotalEnergies adds necessary new generation to the local system, boosting the amount of affordable and reliable power supply available to serve the entire region.”

TotalEnergies maintains a 10-gigawatt-capacity portfolio of onshore solar, wind and battery storage assets in the U.S., including 5 gigawatts in the territory served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Other clean energy customers of TotalEnergies include Airbus, Air Liquide, Amazon, LyondellBasell, Merck and Microsoft.

A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

Higher natural gas prices
Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
Extreme weather
Population growth
Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Sun Day Houston will be held this Sunday, Sept. 21. Photo via Upslash.

Houston solar rally, renewable energy celebration to take place this weekend

where to be

Local organizations will celebrate solar, wind and renewable energy this Sunday, Sept. 21, during Sun Day Houston.

Timed with the autumn equinox, the inaugural event will bring together speakers, exhibits, workshops and hands-on activities that promote the adoption of clean power sources outside of Christ the King Lutheran Church at 2353 Rice Blvd., near Rice University. It will take place from 2-4:30 p.m.

Featured speakers include:

Daniel Cohan, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice, who will speak on the science of renewable energy and its growing role in ERCOT and the national U.S. energy grid
Andrea Oyuela, manager of the Harris County Solar for All program, who will speak on Harris County’s efforts to expand solar energy access to underserved communities and the county's leadership role in the Texas Solar for All Coalition

Attendees will also be able to participate in mobile solar and home solar battery displays, an electric vehicle show-and-tell, and a rain barrel workshop. Other workshops include the Tips and Tricks for Going Solar Workshop and the Welcoming the Energy Transition Workshop.

Exhibits will be hosted by:

Harris County Sustainability Division
Solar United Neighbors
Environment Texas
Public Citizen
Houston Chapter, Citizens Climate Lobby
Texas Campaign for the Environment
Houston Electric Vehicle Association
Houston Climate Boulder Project
Turtle Island Restoration Network
Climate Conversation Brazoria County
Sunrise Movement
Rice Wildlife Conservation Corps

Sun Day Houston is part of hundreds of Sun Day events worldwide. TH!RD ACT, a national nonprofit founded by environmentalist Bill McKibben, is serving as the primary sponsor. It is co-sponsored by 22 Gulf Coast environmental organizations, including Sierra Club of Houston, Harris County Sustainability Division, the Green Building Council, and many others. Find more information here.

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Houston clean energy leader to receive posthumous Trailblazer Legacy Award

lasting legacy

Every year, the Houston Innovation Awards, presented by EnergyCapital's sister site InnovationMap, honor one Houstonian with the Trailblazer Award, whose impact is felt throughout the city's innovation and business ecosystem.

This year, the Trailblazer Legacy Award will be given posthumously to Don Kendall Jr., who died in September while on a trip to the Republic of the Congo with the Jane Goodall Institute, one of the many organizations he was deeply involved with.

Kendall's obituary puts it simply: "Don’s truest passions were conservation and his family." Many saw those passions play out in his career, particularly in the role he played in shaping Houston's clean energy sector.

Kendall served as general partner of New Climate Ventures, a Houston-based early-stage venture capital firm that invests in next-gen energy, materials and fuel technologies and startups. The firm's portfolio includes Houston-based clean energy companies like Solidec, Syzygy Plasmonics and Rheom Materials.

Kendall was also founding managing director and CEO of Kenmont Capital LP. He ran a $500 million distressed debt and credit-based hedge fund focused on the energy, power and transportation sectors and one of the top-performing private equity funds under the Kenmont umbrella.

He served on the board of Talos Energy, American Midstream Partners, Syzygy Plasmonics, Tangent Energy, Stream Energy and others. Notably, he served as Chair of the Special Committee of the SolarCity board during its acquisition by Tesla in 2016. According to his obituary, Kendall negotiated with "Elon Musk in the middle of the night on a rickety pier in Indonesia after eluding a poisonous snake."

Outside of the clean energy space, Kendall also served on the boards of the Jane Goodall Institute, Earthwatch International and Ecological Defense Group. He also served as vice chair of the Houston Zoo Inc. and chair of its Conservation Committee.

Kendall was selected by our esteemed panel of judges to receive the 2026 Trailblazer Legacy Award. The panel includes carbon removal entrepreneur and CEO of Houston-based Mars Materials Aaron Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald shares the profound impact Kendall had on his career and those of many others.

"Honoring Don with the Trailblazer Legacy Award is a fitting tribute to a leader whose impact spanned civic work with the Houston Zoo, wildlife conservation, and the growth of our startup ecosystem," Fitzgerald says. "He paired a keen eye for potential with the relentless drive to unlock it. For Mars Materials, his early backing carried us through a critical valley when we needed belief the most, and his presence as a personal mentor is profoundly missed."

Don was an avid traveler, cyclist and collector. He is survived by his wife of 50 years, Diane S. Kendall. A celebration of life will be held early in 2027.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

Katy’s TerraFlow acquires Houston battery tech startup FlowCellutions

m&a activity

Katy-based TerraFlow Energy, an energy storage and infrastructure company, has acquired Houston-based battery technology startup FlowCellutions. Financial terms weren’t disclosed.

FlowCellutions still operates under its established name, but with the tagline “A TerraFlow Energy Company.” Becca Segel, founder and CEO of FlowCellutions, now runs the business as its president.

FlowCellutions specializes in electrochemical sensing, diagnostics, analytics, and testing that offer insights into battery chemistry, charging capabilities, and system performance.

“FlowCellutions has always been focused on developing better ways to understand what is happening inside a flow battery and using that information to improve how these systems perform,” Segal said in a press release. “Joining TerraFlow gives us the opportunity to apply that work at a much larger scale while continuing to build the capabilities and expertise that make FlowCellutions unique.”

The FlowCellutions platform supports data centers and other heavy users of power. It’s designed to help reduce operating costs, prevent failures and costly downtime, and extend battery lifetime from about seven years to more than 30 years.

Segel founded the company in 2022. A member of Greentown Labs, the company raised more than $2 million in non-dilutive funding and received $1.5 million in National Science Foundation funding earlier this year.

FlowCellutions is one of five finalists in the Energy Transition Business category of InnovationMap’s 2026 Houston Innovation Awards.

“FlowCellutions brings a depth of scientific and technical expertise that fits naturally with where TerraFlow is going,” Jon Parrella, CEO of TerraFlow, said in the release.

“As we move from developing these systems to deploying them at commercial scale, understanding performance at a deeper level matters,” he said. “Bringing FlowCellutions into TerraFlow strengthens that capability and gives both teams more opportunity to advance the technology.”

TerraFlow, founded in 2024, develops long-duration energy storage and power infrastructure for data centers, industrial facilities, utilities and other large power consumers.

2 Houston cleantech cos. among world's 50 to watch and more energy news

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Rice University spinouts named among 50 top cleantech companies to watch

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These 5 trailblazing Houston startups are leading the energy transition

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Tesla unveils new Roadster sports car, which can thrust itself in the air

Tesla has unveiled its new Roadster sports car, which can thrust itself in the air, among other engineering bells and whistles. But drivers shouldn't expect to take it for a spin anytime soon. Elon Musk's electric car company rolled out its second-generation Roadster at a recent event, showing off a set of cold gas thrusters and a “multi-mode” suction system that can fling the car in the air for short spurts and spin the vehicle mid-flight. Continue reading.

Houston researchers develop heating method to recover critical minerals from e-waste

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Houston solar manufacturer expands facility, production capacity

Solar tracking and manufacturing company PV Hardware USA is increasing its production capacity and expanding its Houston facility in an effort to meet growing demands. The move marks the company's third expansion in the Houston area in three years. PV Hardware reports a 400 percent surge in national market growth over the past three years, as solar-based projects have been pivotal in energy resilience efforts. Continue reading.

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