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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Texas has the most utility-scale solar capacity installed and is home to 20 percent of the overall U.S. solar fleet. Photo via Getty Images

Texas passes California on national report of top solar states

by the numbers

For the first time, Texas has passed California in the second quarter of 2024 to become the top solar state in the country.

The American Clean Power Association's quarterly market report found that, by adding 3,293 megawatts of new solar year-to-date, Texas has the most utility-scale solar capacity installed, comprising 20 percent of the overall U.S. solar fleet. The American Clean Power Association, which represents over 800 energy storage, wind, utility-scale solar, transmission, and clean hydrogen companies, found that Texas is home to 21,932 megawatts of capacity,

By utilizing clean energy initiatives, Texas included 1.6 gigawatts of new solar, 574 megawatts of storage, and 366 megawatts of onshore wind. With more than 28,000 megawatts, Texas had the highest volume of clean power development capacity in the second quarter. About 163,000 megawatts of capacity overall are in the works throughout the United States. Texas ranks No. 1 for total operating wind capacity and total operating solar capacity, and comes in second for operating storage capacity.

Texas again led in production levels with clean power construction projects nationally, which boasts more than 19,000 megawatts worth of clean power energy currently under construction. With almost 28.3 gigawatts in advanced development or under construction, Texas continues to come in at No.1, as California is next with over 16.4 gigawatts in the state’s project pipeline.

California added more than 1,900 megawatts of new clean power capacity in the second quarter, with its clean energy development behavior leaning more towards adding storage, which amounts to 60 percent of California’s year-to-date clean power installations.

According to the report from SmartAsset, the Lone Star State has the most clean energy capacity at 56,405 megawatts due to its sheer size for solar capacity, but continues to trail states with similar geographic characteristics in overall clean energy prevalence.

Another report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, says Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year, followed by California (10 percent) and Florida (6 percent).

While Texas’ solar efforts have shown positive trends, the state ranked No. 38 in a report by WalletHub that determined it was the thirteenth least green state.

In Texas last month, coal use dropped and solar energy soared, according to a new report. Photo via Pexels

Report: Solar tops coal in Texas for energy generation for the first time

by the numbers

For the first time in Texas, according to a recent report, solar energy generation surpassed the output by coal.

The report — from the Institute For Energy Economics and Financial Analysis — sourced the Energy Information Administration’s hourly grid monitor for March 2024. This shift in a predominantly oil and gas dominated history of Texas energy output, was due to solar power’s 3.26 million megawatt-hours to Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, compared to coal’s 2.96 million MWh.

In addition, coal’s market share fell below 10 percent to 9 percent for the first time ever, to just over 9 percent. The increase in solar energy pushed solar’s share of ERCOT generation to more than 10 percent for the month, which was also a first.

Due to its sheer size, Texas is the No.1 state for solar capacity. According to the report from SmartAsset, the Lone Star State has the most clean energy capacity at 56,405 megawatts, but continues to trail states with similar geographic characteristics in overall clean energy prevalence.

Texas only 38 percent of the state’s electricity capacity comes from clean electricity, and it has the second-largest solar capacity, which means Texas has the most means, space, and potential to accommodate cleaner electricity. Texas as a whole, ranked No. 22 on the list for states with the most clean energy in the SmartAsset report.

In Texas, generation in March 2024 was 1.17 million MWh more year-over-year, which is a 56 percent increase. ERCOT data shows that the system currently has 22,710 megawatts (MW) of operational solar capacity according to IEEFA, and is expected to expand by almost one-third by the end of 2024 with an additional 7,168 MW of capacity added. The number just considers Texas solar projects that have set aside the financing required to get onto the ERCOT grid and that have a signed interconnection agreement.

Texas burned 50.7 million tons of coal for electricity, which was 13 percent of the U.S. total in 2023 according to the EIA grid monitor. Coal's annual share of ERCOT demand ranged from 36 percent to 40 percent from 2003 through 2014. The last year percent. In 2020, coal was under 20 percent in 2020; and was less than 15 percent in 2023 supplying just 13.9 percent of the system’s total demand.

The IEEFA notes coal’s low March production is important because in recent years it has been the moderate temperatures of April and May and steady winds that have affected the usage and the market share.

Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas shines as top state for new solar, battery capacity

by the numbers

On a state-by-state basis, Texas will account for the biggest share of new utility-scale solar capacity and new battery storage capacity in 2024, a new federal report predicts.

The report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), says Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year, followed by California (10 percent) and Florida (six percent).

In 2024, EIA expects a record-setting addition of 36.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity across the U.S., nearly double last year’s record-setting addition of 18.4 gigawatts. One gigawatt of electric-generating capacity can power an average of 750,000 homes.

“As the effects of supply chain challenges and trade restrictions ease, solar continues to outpace capacity additions from other generating resources,” the report states.

Meanwhile, a new report from the Environment Texas Research & Policy Center and the Frontier Group found that Texas ranks third in the U.S. for residential solar power generation. Residential solar power generation in Texas grew 646 percent from 2017 through 2022, according to the report.

A February 2023 poll conducted by the University of Houston indicated that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Texas homeowners are somewhat or very interested in buying a solar energy system.

“Texas is already soaking up the benefits of rooftop solar,” says Luke Metzger, executive director of the Environment Texas center. “With federal tax credits in place to boost solar adoption in Texas, now is the time to lean in. Every sunny roof without solar panels is a missed opportunity.”

In addition to a spike in utility-scale solar, the EIA report forecasts Texas will lead the way this year in the addition of battery storage capacity, with the expected addition of 6.4 gigawatts. In second place is California, with an expected 5.2 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity. The two states will make up 82 percent of new U.S. battery storage capacity in 2024, says the report.

The federal agency predicts 14.3 gigawatts of U.S. battery storage capacity will be tacked on this year to the existing 15.5 gigawatts.

Overall, EIA anticipates solar will make up 58 percent of all new utility-scale electric-generating capacity this year in the U.S., followed by battery storage at 23 percent.

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Houston company lands first deal from new Blackstone energy transition fund

M&A activity

Asset manager Blackstone has agreed to buy Houston-based Dresser Utility Solutions from Connecticut private equity firm First Reserve for an undisclosed amount. First Reserve has a major presence in Houston.

The deal represents the first investment from Blackstone Energy Transition Partners V.

“Blackstone’s deep resources and experience in the utility sector make them an ideal partner as we continue to invest in innovation, expand our product portfolio, and deliver value for our customers,” Dresser CEO David Evans said in a news release.

Founded in 1880, Dresser provides metering technology, digital instrumentation and software, pressure and flow controls, and infrastructure repair products for gas and water utilities and industrial customers. The company employs about 850 people worldwide.

“As demands on the energy grid continue to grow, Dresser plays a critical role as a trusted partner to utilities managing essential infrastructure. The company’s products are foundational to the safe and reliable operation of gas and water networks, and its reputation for quality has helped build longstanding customer relationships,” David Foley, global head of Blackstone Energy Transition Partners, and JP Munfa, senior managing director, said in the release.

Blackstone Energy Transition Partners has invested more than $28 billion across the energy transition sector. New York-based Blackstone closed Blackstone Energy Transition Partners Fund IV at $5.6 billion in February 2025. Blackstone Energy Transition Partners Fund III closed in 2020 for $4.4 million, according to Pitchbook.

Other notable energy transition investments from Blackstone funds include Salt Lake City-based Energy Exemplar, French electronics manufacturing company Sediver, Plano-based Westwood Professional Services and others.

Two years ago, Dresser secured a $335 million credit facility from funds managed by asset manager Blue Owl Capital. At the time, Dresser said the money would go toward capital expenses, acquisitions and corporate needs.

This is the second notable investment Blackstone has made in a Houston-based energy company in recent months. In May, Blackstone and energy heavyweight Halliburton made a $1 billion equity investment in Houston power generation startup VoltaGrid, which provides behind-the-meter mobile power generation equipment for data centers, microgrids and industrial customers.

5 Houston energy transition news headlines to know for July 2026

Hot Topics

Editor's note: Early July has brought exciting developments in the energy transition sector. Here are the five most-read news stories published on EnergyCapitalHTX from July 1-15, 2026, from KBR's Singapore agreement to Yara's Texas City investment.

1. Houston startup secures $5M to turn oilfield wastewater into critical minerals

Altililion

Houston-based startup Altillion has secured $5 million in seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its proprietary IRIS and ALIX technologies, which convert oilfield-produced water into valuable minerals. Altillion says the funding will go toward pilot facilities and commercial deployments as the company looks to scale in the U.S. Continue reading.

2. Houston's KBR to provide tech for Singapore SAF plant

Houston engineering and technology contractor KBR has been picked as the technology provider for what’s expected to be Asia's first commercial-scale ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. KBR will provide technology licensing and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) services based on its PureSAF technology. Continue reading.

3. Texas City ammonia plant acquired by Yara in $1.3 billion deal

Yara North America, a subsidiary of Norwegian fertilizer and ammonia producer Yara International, has agreed to buy an ammonia production plant in Texas City for $1.3 billion. The seller is GCA Holdings, an affiliate of Texas City-based chemical manufacturer Gulf Coast Ammonia, which is owned by private equity firms Lotus Infrastructure Partners and MB Energy. Continue reading.

4. 13 Houston energy sector companies make U.S. News' best places to work

A new U.S. News & World Report ranking of the best employers has named two dozen Houston-based companies among the best companies to work in the South, and more than half are part of the region's booming energy sector. Continue reading.

5. Houston energy startup launches to power AI data centers with Microsoft agreement

Buoyed by a purchase agreement from Microsoft, Houston-based Joulent recently launched to build power plants that meet the electricity demands of AI data centers and other computing-heavy industries. Continue reading.

Houston cleantech startup closes $17M round to tap into hot geothermal sector

fresh funding

Houston-area startup Hephae Energy Technology Corp. has closed a $17.8 million Series A financing round to commercialize its geothermal technology.

The round was co-led by Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Sustainable Investments, which invests in early-stage climatech companies, and Copenhagen-based Underground Ventures, which focuses on geothermal energy startups. Alfa8, Baruch Future Ventures, Centaurus Capital LP, Elemental Impact, Exa Ventures, Future Ventures, Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, New System Ventures and True North Institute joined the round, along with existing Houston-based investor Nabors Industries. Hyphae reports in a news release that the Series A round brings the company's total capital raised to $24.7 million.

Hephae develops ultra-high-temperature downhole sensing, measurement, communications and control systems that can withstand the heat of geothermal sites, which are hotter and deeper than traditional oil and gas reservoirs. The company's Pandora210 system can operate at up to 400 degrees Fahrenheit.

Hephae reports that it plans to use the new funding to commercialize its Pandora210 tool and to launch research and development into systems that can withstand temperatures of up to 570 degrees Fahrenheit. Houston-based Fervo Energy, for instance, recently tapped its hottest geothermal well to date in western Utah, showing temperatures above 555 degrees Fahrenheit.

"Commercial deployment represents a major milestone in our mission to scalable, always-on, emission-free power globally, with a world-class team to tackle this problem," Steve Krase, CEO of Hephae Energy Technology, said in the release." This investment enables Hephae to transition from development to scale, delivering the ultra-high temperature drilling technologies needed to support the rapid growth of the geothermal industry in the US and international markets."

Hephae has been collaborating with Fervo Energy in the field. The company told the Houston Business JournalHouston Business Journal this spring that it expected its Pandora210 technology to be deployed at its Utah sites.

“Fervo is encouraged by the early progress of our collaboration with Hephae, whose novel high-temperature innovations have the potential to contribute positively to EGS economics, unlock higher-energy geothermal resources, and further cement the competitiveness of next-generation geothermal power," Elliot Howard, director of drilling and completions at Fervo, added in the release.

As the geothermal industry continues to scale, Hephae says it aims for its technology to help companies "unlock hotter, deeper resources that result in lower produced energy costs."

The Spring-based startup was founded in 2020 by CEO Steve Krase and CTO John Clegg. Krase previously launched Navigate Energy Services, which was acquired by Nabors in 2013. Clegg is also an industry veteran and has held numerous leadership positions at energy companies, including Weatherford, NOV, Schlumberger and others.

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