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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A recent testimony before a U.S. Senate committee shows how solar power and battery storage are helping keep Texas electricity prices more stable, even as demand surges.Photo via SEIA.org.

Solar power and storage help save Texans millions on electric bills, CEO tells Senate

price stability

Solar power and battery storage are saving Texans hundreds of millions of dollars on their electric bills, the president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association recently told a congressional committee.

Abigail Ross Hopper, the association’s president and CEO, said in testimony given to the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that states like Texas that are adding significant capacity for solar power and battery storage are enjoying lower, more stable prices for electricity.

“Unsubsidized solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in history in much of the country,” Hopper said. “With no fuel costs, solar provides a hedge against natural gas price volatility that continues to cause electricity price spikes.”

“The only way to put downward pressure on prices is by bringing more power online, not less,” she added.

To illustrate the value of solar power and battery storage, Hopper compared two hot summer days in Texas—one in July 2022 and the other in July 2025.

Hopper explained that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) had begun installing solar on its grid in 2022 but had very little battery storage. ERCOT manages 90 percent of the state’s electrical load.

When ERCOT grid conditions buckled under high demand on the highlighted day in 2022, the price of electricity spiked to nearly $1,500 per megawatt-hour, Hopper said.

“Three years later, the amount of solar had increased substantially and was complemented by energy storage,” she said.

On the specified day in 2025, under even greater demand than three years earlier, sizable amounts of solar power, battery storage and wind power kept ERCOT’s midday price of electricity low and stable—around $50 per megawatt-hour. That dollar amount represented a nearly 100 percent decrease compared with the highlighted day in 2022.

Solar and wind supplied nearly 40 percent of Texas’ power during the first nine months of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Despite the state’s expansion of solar power and battery storage capacity, residential electricity prices in ERCOT’s territory rose 30 percent from 2020 to 2025 and are expected to climb another 29 percent from 2025 to 2030, according to a forecast from the Texas Energy Poverty Research Institute.

The increase in electric bills is tied to factors such as:

  • Higher natural gas prices
  • Greater demand from AI data centers and cryptomining facilities
  • Extreme weather
  • Population growth
  • Development of new transmission and distribution lines

The strain on ERCOT’s grid is only getting worse. An EIA forecast predicts demand for ERCOT electricity will jump 9.6 percent in 2026, and ERCOT expects a 50 percent jump in demand by 2029.

Texas has the most utility-scale solar capacity installed and is home to 20 percent of the overall U.S. solar fleet. Photo via Getty Images

Texas passes California on national report of top solar states

by the numbers

For the first time, Texas has passed California in the second quarter of 2024 to become the top solar state in the country.

The American Clean Power Association's quarterly market report found that, by adding 3,293 megawatts of new solar year-to-date, Texas has the most utility-scale solar capacity installed, comprising 20 percent of the overall U.S. solar fleet. The American Clean Power Association, which represents over 800 energy storage, wind, utility-scale solar, transmission, and clean hydrogen companies, found that Texas is home to 21,932 megawatts of capacity,

By utilizing clean energy initiatives, Texas included 1.6 gigawatts of new solar, 574 megawatts of storage, and 366 megawatts of onshore wind. With more than 28,000 megawatts, Texas had the highest volume of clean power development capacity in the second quarter. About 163,000 megawatts of capacity overall are in the works throughout the United States. Texas ranks No. 1 for total operating wind capacity and total operating solar capacity, and comes in second for operating storage capacity.

Texas again led in production levels with clean power construction projects nationally, which boasts more than 19,000 megawatts worth of clean power energy currently under construction. With almost 28.3 gigawatts in advanced development or under construction, Texas continues to come in at No.1, as California is next with over 16.4 gigawatts in the state’s project pipeline.

California added more than 1,900 megawatts of new clean power capacity in the second quarter, with its clean energy development behavior leaning more towards adding storage, which amounts to 60 percent of California’s year-to-date clean power installations.

According to the report from SmartAsset, the Lone Star State has the most clean energy capacity at 56,405 megawatts due to its sheer size for solar capacity, but continues to trail states with similar geographic characteristics in overall clean energy prevalence.

Another report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, says Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year, followed by California (10 percent) and Florida (6 percent).

While Texas’ solar efforts have shown positive trends, the state ranked No. 38 in a report by WalletHub that determined it was the thirteenth least green state.

In Texas last month, coal use dropped and solar energy soared, according to a new report. Photo via Pexels

Report: Solar tops coal in Texas for energy generation for the first time

by the numbers

For the first time in Texas, according to a recent report, solar energy generation surpassed the output by coal.

The report — from the Institute For Energy Economics and Financial Analysis — sourced the Energy Information Administration’s hourly grid monitor for March 2024. This shift in a predominantly oil and gas dominated history of Texas energy output, was due to solar power’s 3.26 million megawatt-hours to Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, compared to coal’s 2.96 million MWh.

In addition, coal’s market share fell below 10 percent to 9 percent for the first time ever, to just over 9 percent. The increase in solar energy pushed solar’s share of ERCOT generation to more than 10 percent for the month, which was also a first.

Due to its sheer size, Texas is the No.1 state for solar capacity. According to the report from SmartAsset, the Lone Star State has the most clean energy capacity at 56,405 megawatts, but continues to trail states with similar geographic characteristics in overall clean energy prevalence.

Texas only 38 percent of the state’s electricity capacity comes from clean electricity, and it has the second-largest solar capacity, which means Texas has the most means, space, and potential to accommodate cleaner electricity. Texas as a whole, ranked No. 22 on the list for states with the most clean energy in the SmartAsset report.

In Texas, generation in March 2024 was 1.17 million MWh more year-over-year, which is a 56 percent increase. ERCOT data shows that the system currently has 22,710 megawatts (MW) of operational solar capacity according to IEEFA, and is expected to expand by almost one-third by the end of 2024 with an additional 7,168 MW of capacity added. The number just considers Texas solar projects that have set aside the financing required to get onto the ERCOT grid and that have a signed interconnection agreement.

Texas burned 50.7 million tons of coal for electricity, which was 13 percent of the U.S. total in 2023 according to the EIA grid monitor. Coal's annual share of ERCOT demand ranged from 36 percent to 40 percent from 2003 through 2014. The last year percent. In 2020, coal was under 20 percent in 2020; and was less than 15 percent in 2023 supplying just 13.9 percent of the system’s total demand.

The IEEFA notes coal’s low March production is important because in recent years it has been the moderate temperatures of April and May and steady winds that have affected the usage and the market share.

Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year. Photo via Getty Images

Report: Texas shines as top state for new solar, battery capacity

by the numbers

On a state-by-state basis, Texas will account for the biggest share of new utility-scale solar capacity and new battery storage capacity in 2024, a new federal report predicts.

The report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), says Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year, followed by California (10 percent) and Florida (six percent).

In 2024, EIA expects a record-setting addition of 36.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity across the U.S., nearly double last year’s record-setting addition of 18.4 gigawatts. One gigawatt of electric-generating capacity can power an average of 750,000 homes.

“As the effects of supply chain challenges and trade restrictions ease, solar continues to outpace capacity additions from other generating resources,” the report states.

Meanwhile, a new report from the Environment Texas Research & Policy Center and the Frontier Group found that Texas ranks third in the U.S. for residential solar power generation. Residential solar power generation in Texas grew 646 percent from 2017 through 2022, according to the report.

A February 2023 poll conducted by the University of Houston indicated that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Texas homeowners are somewhat or very interested in buying a solar energy system.

“Texas is already soaking up the benefits of rooftop solar,” says Luke Metzger, executive director of the Environment Texas center. “With federal tax credits in place to boost solar adoption in Texas, now is the time to lean in. Every sunny roof without solar panels is a missed opportunity.”

In addition to a spike in utility-scale solar, the EIA report forecasts Texas will lead the way this year in the addition of battery storage capacity, with the expected addition of 6.4 gigawatts. In second place is California, with an expected 5.2 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity. The two states will make up 82 percent of new U.S. battery storage capacity in 2024, says the report.

The federal agency predicts 14.3 gigawatts of U.S. battery storage capacity will be tacked on this year to the existing 15.5 gigawatts.

Overall, EIA anticipates solar will make up 58 percent of all new utility-scale electric-generating capacity this year in the U.S., followed by battery storage at 23 percent.

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3 must-know fall application deadlines for Houston energy innovators

Editor's note: As fall reaches full swing, Houston's innovation and cleantech scene is calling on the latest batch of founders and startups looking to make a difference. A number of accelerators have opened applications. Read below to see which might be a good fit for you or your venture. And take careful note of the deadlines. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional information and programs.

Did we miss an accelerator or competition accepting applications? Email innoeditor@innovationmap.com for editorial consideration.

Greentown Lab's Go Make 2027: Advanced Carbon Materials with ExxonMobil

Deadline: Oct. 9

Details: Greentown Labs is seeking applications from startups developing novel carbon-based technologies for its latest Go Make cohort in conjunction with ExxonMobil. The structured accelerator is designed to facilitate validation activities and explore potential long-term collaborations with Exxon, according to Greentown. Founders will have the opportunity to engage directly with industry leaders to test, validate and scale their carbon technologies in real commercial contexts. The program tentatively starts on Jan. 20, 2027 and concludes June 16, 2027. Find more information here.

Activate's U.S. Fellowship Cohort 2027

Deadline: Oct. 30

Details: Activate supports scientists at "the outset of their entrepreneurial journey." It partners with U.S.-based funders and research institutions to support its fellows in developing high-impact technology. Its fellows receive a living stipend, research and development funding, connections from Activate's robust network of mentors and access to a curriculum specific to the program for two years. Applicants must have a bachelor’s degree and 4-plus years of post-baccalaureate scientific research, engineering or technology development experience. Their work must be based in the physical or biological sciences or related engineering disciplines. Find more information here.

Rice Innovation Fellows

Deadline: Oct. 30

Details: The Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lilie)'s Rice Innovation Fellows program supports Rice Ph.D. students and postdocs in turning their research into real-world ventures. Participants receive $10,000 in translational research funding, co-working space and personalized mentorship. Candidates from all Rice engineering and science-related disciplines are encouraged to apply. Find more information here.

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A version of this article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

Houston carbon removal company secures $35M in financing

national scale

Houston-based Vaulted Deep, a waste management and carbon removal company, has announced a major $35 million debt facility from Italian investment bank Mediobanca to support its national expansion.

U.K.-based market energy solutions CFP Energy arranged the deal, which is “the largest publicly disclosed U.S. commercial debt deal in durable carbon removal to be secured by long-term purchase contracts,” according to a news release from the companies.

The financing will support new waste disposal sites for Vaulted Deep and advancements of the company’s AI-enabled site development platform. The platform helps identify locations, navigate permitting and optimize injection operations. When candidates are looking for sites, the platform will pull from regulatory, geology and waste-supply data to assist, which Vaulted Deep says will help streamline the permitting process. After the site is operating, the platform helps control algorithms to maximize safe disposal capacity and monitor the process along the way.

"Waste operators across the country need new options as traditional disposal options become limited,” Julia Reichelstein, CEO and co-founder of Vaulted Deep, said in the release. “This financing lets us take on more projects and invest in the tools that help us evaluate and develop new sites faster. This is a meaningful milestone for Vaulted as we move into the next phase of building infrastructure at a much larger scale."

The deal is supported by Vaulted Deep's long-term waste service and carbon removal purchase contracts. The company says it delivered more than 20,000 tons of carbon removal to buyers in the first half of 2026, which is more than it delivered in all of 2025.

"By facilitating these types of transactions, we connect institutional capital with innovative climate technologies, helping accelerate the deployment of high-integrity carbon removal solutions,” Tyler Manchester, head of voluntary carbon for CFP Energy, added in the release. “It reflects growing investor confidence in these solutions, driven by rising demand from corporate buyers seeking permanent pathways to support net-zero commitments and long-term climate strategies."

Beyond the facility, Vaulted Deep has secured $48 million in equity financing in addition to its $8 million from the XPRIZE Carbon Removal competition, backed by Elon Musk’s charitable organization, The Musk Foundation.

The company's well injection technology is used to store organic waste deep underground in stable geologic formations. In 2025, it inked a 12-year deal with Microsoft to remove up to 4.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the environment.

Houston's power future report and more top energy transition headlines

Hot News

Editor's note: It's time to look back at the top Houston energy transition news in recent weeks, from a report that examines Houston's power future, to exciting funding raises for a local startup and a member of a local incubator. Here are the five most-read EnergyCapitalHTX stories from September 16-30, 2026:

Houston’s power future: The role of energy efficiency and demand response

A new report from the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, “Role of Efficiency & Demand Response to Meet Near-Term Regional Power Demand,” examines how Houston can get more from the grid it has today. Its central finding: energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DE) can create measurable grid “headroom” while new major infrastructure projects are being planned, financed, permitted and built. Explore the key takeaways from the report. Continue reading.

ExxonMobil secures approval for $5B East Texas carbon capture project

Spring-based ExxonMobil has won approval from the Texas Railroad Commission for a $5 billion carbon capture and storage project in East Texas. The project will enable the company to inject about 53 metric tons of industrial customers’ carbon emissions into three underground wells it drilled in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. Over a 13-year period, ExxonMobil plans to inject about 4 million metric tons per year into the Fleming and Upper Frio rock formations, according to Carbon Herald. Continue reading.

Houston-based ‘grid in a box’ provider Branch Energy raises $33M

Houston-based startup Branch Energy, which offers a self-contained “grid in a box,” has collected $33 million in a Series B round. Piva Capital and Clean Energy Ventures led the round. Active Impact Investments, Whitecap Venture Partners, Prelude Ventures, Zero Infinity Partners and Inovia Capital also contributed to the round. In 2024, Branch raised $10.8 million in an oversubscribed Series A round. Continue reading.

Kanin Energy raises up to $100M for waste-heat-to-power projects

Kanin Energy, a member of the Greentown Labs climatech and energy incubator in Houston, recently raised as much as $100 million in capital to grow its energy-as-a-service platform. S2G Investments led a round of up to $50 million, and the Canada Growth Fund chipped in an additional $50 million. The money will primarily support Kanin’s development and operation of waste-heat-to-power projects. Continue reading.

Houston-based ENGIE wins national award for clean energy leadership

Houston-based ENGIE has been recognized for its work in the clean energy space. The battery storage and energy infrastructure company recently won the 2026 Green Power Leadership Award in the Market Innovation category for its work advancing 24/7 renewable energy solutions. The awards honor individuals and companies advancing sustainability and renewables in the energy industry through innovation and leadership. Continue reading.

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