by the numbers

Report: Texas shines as top state for new solar, battery capacity

Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year. Photo via Getty Images

On a state-by-state basis, Texas will account for the biggest share of new utility-scale solar capacity and new battery storage capacity in 2024, a new federal report predicts.

The report, published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), says Texas will make up 35 percent of new utility-scale solar capacity in the U.S. this year, followed by California (10 percent) and Florida (six percent).

In 2024, EIA expects a record-setting addition of 36.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity across the U.S., nearly double last year’s record-setting addition of 18.4 gigawatts. One gigawatt of electric-generating capacity can power an average of 750,000 homes.

“As the effects of supply chain challenges and trade restrictions ease, solar continues to outpace capacity additions from other generating resources,” the report states.

Meanwhile, a new report from the Environment Texas Research & Policy Center and the Frontier Group found that Texas ranks third in the U.S. for residential solar power generation. Residential solar power generation in Texas grew 646 percent from 2017 through 2022, according to the report.

A February 2023 poll conducted by the University of Houston indicated that nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Texas homeowners are somewhat or very interested in buying a solar energy system.

“Texas is already soaking up the benefits of rooftop solar,” says Luke Metzger, executive director of the Environment Texas center. “With federal tax credits in place to boost solar adoption in Texas, now is the time to lean in. Every sunny roof without solar panels is a missed opportunity.”

In addition to a spike in utility-scale solar, the EIA report forecasts Texas will lead the way this year in the addition of battery storage capacity, with the expected addition of 6.4 gigawatts. In second place is California, with an expected 5.2 gigawatts of new battery storage capacity. The two states will make up 82 percent of new U.S. battery storage capacity in 2024, says the report.

The federal agency predicts 14.3 gigawatts of U.S. battery storage capacity will be tacked on this year to the existing 15.5 gigawatts.

Overall, EIA anticipates solar will make up 58 percent of all new utility-scale electric-generating capacity this year in the U.S., followed by battery storage at 23 percent.

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A View From HETI

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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