Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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TEX-E names New Climate Ventures as latest expert in residence

energy mentors

Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship (TEX-E) has named its latest expert in residence.

The Houston-based energy transition nonprofit recently announced that New Climate Ventures will join the newly established program. The Expert-in-Residence partnership aims to connect TEX-E Fellows with "the people and organizations shaping the future of energy and entrepreneurship," the nonprofit previously announced.

Taylor Chapman, an investment principal at New Climate Ventures, sits on TEX-E's board of directors. New Climate Ventures invests in early-stage startups building next-gen technologies in the energy, materials and fuels sectors. The venture capital firm's portfolio includes Houston-based clean energy startups like Solidec, Syzygy Plasmonics and Rheom Materials.

“If you know me, you know that I'm passionate about ensuring that my beloved hometown, Houston, is the energy capital of the future — not just of the past," Chapman said in a LinkedIn post. "TEX-E is building a key piece to ensure that's the case: a strong pipeline of graduate and college students immersed [and] versed in the world of energy [and] climate entrepreneurship."

TEX-E says the partnership with New Climate Ventures will allow its fellows opportunities to learn from investors that work with emerging companies and understand how they evaluate new technologies.

TEX-E announced Houston-based geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy and venture capital firm Mercury Fund as its first experts in residence in August. At the time, it said the partnerships would allow its fellows to network and work with Tim Latimer, CEO of Fervo; Sarah Jewett, COO of Fervo; and Blair Garrou, managing partner of Mercury Fund.

The nonprofit was founded in 2022 through partnerships with MIT Martin Trust Center for Entrepreneurship and Greentown Labs. It works with university students from six schools: Rice University, University of Houston, Prairie View A&M University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M University and MIT.

Rice University spinouts named among 50 top cleantech companies to watch

green team

Two Rice University spinouts, Coflux Purification and DexMat, appear on a new list of the world’s 50 cleantech companies to watch.

Cleantech Group’s 2026 Cleantech 50 to Watch list recognizes early-stage companies “creating groundbreaking solutions to address some of the world’s most pressing environmental and sustainability challenges.”

Cleantech Group, a market research, consulting, and events company, selects the 50 honorees based on insights from analysts and early-stage innovators, along with public nominations.

Destroying “forever chemicals”

Coflux, founded in 2024, offers an onsite treatment system that captures and destroys manufactured “forever chemicals”—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances—in water and wastewater. It’s a member of Greentown Houston.

Alec Ajnsztajn, CEO; Jeremy Daum, chief technology officer; and Dana Vazquez, chief commercial officer, co-founded Coflux. Ajnsztajn and Daum earned doctoral degrees from Rice, and Vazquez earned an MBA from the university.

Coflux spun out of Rice labs directed by professors Rafael Verduzco and Pulickel Ajayan.

Last year, Coflux received a $175,000 grant from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture. The startup has also raised more than $500,000 in non-dilutive funding, including $80,000 awarded in 2024 by Rice’s One Small Step Grant program.

Promoting an alternative to copper

DexMat, founded in 2015, produces carbon nanotube products such as fibers, yarns, cables, and fabric. The company’s products address demand for materials that can reduce carbon emissions, according to CB Insights.

Its main product, Galvorn, is a copper alternative made of carbon nanotube fibers. CB Insights says Galvorn is engineered to be lighter and stronger than traditional conductive materials like carbon and steel. It’s used in industries such as energy, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer electronics, and health care.

DexMat emerged from Matteo Pasquali’s Carbon Lab at Rice. Pasquali, co-founder of DexMat, co-invented the company’s technology with the late Nobel Prize-winning chemist Rick Smalley. Smalley was a professor of chemistry, physics, and astronomy at Rice.

Pasquali is a professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering, chemistry, materials science, and nanoengineering at Rice. He co-founded DexMat with Rice graduate Dmitri Tsentalovich, the company’s director of product innovation.

Earlier this year, DexMat raised $5 million in seed funding from Non Sibi Ventures, Governance Partners, Tailwind Futures, BetterWay, Capital Factory, and other investors. The company also secured $3 million in non-dilutive funding.

In 2023, DexMat raised $3 million in a pre-seed round led by Shell Ventures.

Stardust Power, Power Electronics expand to Houston and more top energy news

Trending News

Editor's note: October brings big updates for the energy transition sector, with two companies expanding to Houston and two more announcing major funding. Here are the five most-read stories published on EnergyCapital from September 30-October 15, 2026:

Lithium refiner expands into Houston with new Energy Corridor office

Battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturer Stardust Power has expanded into Houston’s Energy Corridor, the company tells EnergyCapitalHTX. The company’s new office will serve as a project execution hub to support operations and planning for the company’s forthcoming lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma. The Greenwich, Connecticut-based, publicly traded company says the facility will be one of the largest lithium refining operations in the United States. The refinery is expected to have production capacity of up to 50,000 metric tons per year and seeks to address the critical shortage of U.S. lithium refining capacity. Continue reading.

Houston geothermal company picks Nevada site for commercial-scale project

Sage Geosystems, a Houston-based developer of geothermal power systems, has chosen a site in Nevada for its commercial-scale Project Vector facility. The company’s two-well enhanced geothermal system (EGS) will deliver around-the-clock geothermal heat to Ormat Technologies’ Blue Mountain geothermal power plant in Winnemucca, Nevada. The startup expects to begin drilling the first well later this year, with the first electricity to be generated in 2027 and full-scale production to start in 2028. Continue reading.

Houston carbon removal company secures $35M in financing

Houston-based Vaulted Deep, a waste management and carbon removal company, has announced a major $35 million debt facility from Italian investment bank Mediobanca to support its national expansion. U.K.-based market energy solutions CFP Energy arranged the deal, which is “the largest publicly disclosed U.S. commercial debt deal in durable carbon removal to be secured by long-term purchase contracts,” according to a news release from the companies. Continue reading.

Hertha Metals raises $133M Series A round, plans high-purity iron plant

Conroe-based Hertha Metals has closed a $133.65 million Series A round that includes a $65 million equity investment from the Pentagon. The startup uses a one-step process to convert iron into molten steel or high-purity iron. Khosla Ventures and Doerr Capital co-led the round, with participation from CEV, Pear Ventures, Gates Frontier, Niterra SUISO no MORI Fund, Toyota Ventures, and Siemens Financial Services. Continue reading.

European cleantech company breaks ground on Houston manufacturing site

Spanish renewable energy company Power Electronics broke ground on its new 53-acre Houston campus on Sept. 24. The new site is expected to create over 400 local jobs and deliver 40 gigawatts of production capacity per year. The company said that the campus is expected to be the largest manufacturing site for power conversion systems in the U.S. Power Electronics specializes in solar, energy storage, data centers and electrification technologies. Continue reading.

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