Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Houston researchers map data center growth, trends in new interactive platform

data center development

Have you ever wondered why data centers are located where they are?

Energy experts at Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies (CES) have developed a tool to help answer that question.

Rice researchers at the CES, part of Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, have created an interactive map to track data center growth and energy infrastructure in the United States.

Kenneth B. Medlock III, Miaomiao Rimmer, Anmol Mital and Beck Edwards developed the tool, known as the U.S. Data Centers and Infrastructure map. It aims to provide a comprehensive view of the factors shaping where data centers are located, from power and water costs to infrastructure, public policy and local sentiment.

“The map lets you see why data centers are being built where they are by connecting the dots between infrastructure, power costs, water availability, public policy and public sentiment across different regions,” Medlock, senior director at CES, said in a news release. “You can zoom out and look at the whole U.S. to easily realize why data centers locations are being chosen—the price of power and water matters.”

The tool maps information on data center locations against other factors like energy, water, economics and politics. It also shows existing infrastructure in the area, including electric transmission lines, power plants, and fiber-optic networks, and provides information on water stress, electricity prices and natural gas prices.

According to Rice, the map will be updated in real time and currently includes information on existing data centers and proposed data centers.

Additionally, the map provides county-level analyses of news coverage and media to explore local attitudes towards the development of data centers in communities. Users can also explore political and demographic information.

According to the Pew Research Center, most data centers that are being built will appear in rural areas, with Virginia, Texas and Georgia leading the way in the number of planned facilities. Pew’s 2026 findings also noted that 38 percent of Americans live within 5 miles of at least one operational data center.

Meanwhile, Houston and Texas are poised for continued data center growth. Other reports predict that Houston’s data center capacity could more than double by 2028. Texas is home to an estimated 400-plus data centers, according to commercial real estate services provider CBRE.

UH team lands $2.9M DOE grant to develop next-gen magnets with AI

critical minerals

University of Houston researchers are leading an effort to find alternatives to a key element of the U.S. economy.

A UH-led coalition is exploring the use of AI to design and manufacture next-generation permanent magnets for the energy and industrial sectors. The project seeks to develop new, more sustainable magnets that reduce U.S. reliance on vulnerable foreign sources of critical minerals, primarily China.

A nearly $2.9 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy supports the work.

“Rare earth elements, critical minerals, and magnets are indispensable to American energy, industry, and national security,” Conner Prochaska, director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy, said in a news release. “These projects will accelerate domestic mineral discovery and develop ultra-powerful magnets to mobilize U.S. critical mineral reserves, safeguard supply chains, and protect American energy and economic interests.”

Over the three-year grant period, principal investigator Jakoah Brgoch, a chemistry professor at UH, will head the Guided AI for Magnetic Boride/Carbide Intermetallic Technologies (GAMBIT) project. Brgosh was one of seven new senior members from UH named to the National Academy of Inventors earlier this year.

Other members of the team include Joshua Bocarsly, an assistant professor in the UH chemistry department; scientists at Rice University; and Houston-based startup Newfound Materials, which occupies space at Greentown Labs.

The UH-led team aims to surpass the properties of neodymium iron boron, the current industry-standard material for high-performance permanent magnets. These magnets are vital components in electric vehicles, industrial motors, generators, electronics and other advanced technologies.

“Strong magnets are used all over our economy. For example, many modern air-conditioning systems rely on permanent-magnet motors to drive compressors and blower fans,” Brgoch said.

“This has been a longstanding challenge to think about how we replace these magnets with high-performing and more reliable materials, and optimization by just replacing elements is not working,” Brgoch added. “Our goal is to use AI to find entirely new materials while simultaneously balancing these supply constraint concerns.”

The research team will work on discovering and testing potential magnet replacements. According to UH, the project’s ultimate goal is to commercialize the magnets through a new startup or by expanding Newfound Materials’ business units. The local startup has developed a predictive engine for materials research and development.

10 can't-miss events at Houston Energy and Climate Week 2026

where to be

Editor's note: Houston Energy and Climate Week returns for its third year, Sept. 12–18, with panels, happy hours, pitch days and tours focused on the energy transition.

The Ion District will host many of the week's events. Here are details on some can't-miss, signature events and how to register. Find the full schedule here. Please note: this article may be updated to add more events.

Sept. 13 — The & Awards

Kick off the week by celebrating Houston honorees leading the future of energy at the & Awards. The & Awards will honor Zay Zeidman, chairman of Houston First and managing partner of Altitude Ventures; The University of Houston's Renu Khator and Ramanan Krishnamoorti; Maryanne Maldonado, CEO of the World Affairs Council; and Fervo Energy co-founders Tim Latimer (CEO) and Jack Norbeck (CTO). The inaugural posthumous Lifetime Ambassador Award will honor former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, and this year’s Allies in Energy grant recipients will also be recognized. The evening will include a fireside chat, an immersive gallery, live music, passed hors d'oeuvres, Champagne and plenty of networking opportunities.

This event is Sunday, Sept. 13, from 6-9 p.m. at ARTECHOUSE Houston. Register here.

Sept. 14 — Brews on the Bayou

Head to Saint Arnold Brewery for a more laid-back kickoff event. Grab a beer and take in a live conversation with Paul Hobby, managing director of Genesis Park, and Katie Mehnert, CEO of The Bee Suite and co-founder of HECW. Rice University's Aaron Pomerantz will moderate the discussion. Then hear a live performance from AY Young.

This event is Monday, Sept. 14, from 6-9 p.m. at Saint Arnold Brewery. Register here.

Sept. 14–18 — Sip For Sustainability

Enjoy a signature cocktail at five H Town Restaurant Group spots each night of Houston Energy and Climate Week. A portion of every purchase will go toward Allies in Energy, which supports education, collaboration, and community programs that drive a more sustainable future. Participating eateries include Hugo's, Xochi, Uber, Zaranda and Caracol.

These events begin Monday, Sept. 14, from 3-5 p.m. Find more information on each day's happy hour here.

Sept. 15 — HTX Tech Tours

HECW will present two Tech Tours this year, offering attendees a closer look at the region's climatech scene. The Metro Innovation Tour & Market will visit Sugar Land Town Square, Shell Technology Center Houston, SLB West Houston Campus, University of Houston at Sugar Land, Ambrosia Space, NanoTech Materials and Syzygy Plasmonics. The Bay City South Innovation Tour will visit Sugar Land Town Square and Erthos Project Bravo in Matagorda County. Both tours will head to Astros Night at Daikin Park to wrap up the day.

These events are Tuesday, Sept. 15. Find more information here.

Sept. 15 — Meet the Activate Houston Cohort 2026 Fellows

Meet Activate's latest cohort, which was named this summer, and learn more about their hardtech and climate-focused solutions. Also meet founders from the organization’s 2025 cohort during Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 5-7 p.m. at the Ion. Register here.

Sept. 15 – Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase

Grab coffee and take in keynotes and panels featuring leaders from Amperon, Aramco Ventures, New Climate Ventures, Syzygy Plasmonics and many others during this signature event, this year under the theme “The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution.” After lunch, hear pitches from 31 ventures during the Pilotathon. This year's event will also feature a startup showcase with interactive booths where attendees can meet founders and see demonstrations, plus an industry hub where corporates and investors can engage with emerging technologies and identify the pilots they want to move forward with.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, from 9 a.m.-5 p.m. at POST Houston. Get tickets here.

Sept. 15 — Houston Astros Energy Night

Catch a game and chat with fellow clean energy enthusiasts during Houston Astros Energy Night. The 'Stros take on the Kansas City Royals. A bonus? Dollar Hot Dog Night at Daikin Park.

This event is Tuesday, Sept. 15, starting at 7:10 p.m. at Daikin Park. Get tickets here.

Sept. 16 — Greentown Labs Climatech Summit

Entrepreneurs, investors, corporate leaders, policymakers and philanthropists will head to Houston this month for the annual Greentown Climatetech Summit. Hear from Greentown CEO Georgina Campbell Flatter and keynote speaker Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Houston geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy, plus numerous other engaging panels at the Ion. Then head to Greentown Labs for an open house and startup showcase, where attendees can meet some of the climatech incubators' members, before taking in the startup pitch competition followed by happy hour over at the Continental Club.

This event is Wednesday, Sept. 16, from 8 a.m.–9 p.m. at multiple locations. Register here.

Sept. 17 — Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum

Hear from clean energy startups from around the world at the 23rd annual Energy Tech Venture Forum. In addition to the pitches, this event will also host keynotes from Sean Maher, chief economist at Phillips 66, and Ira Ehrenpreis, founder and managing partner of DBL Partner. Panels will focus on technologies, infrastructure and commercialization strategies needed to deploy breakthrough innovations at scale. Following the event, the Rice Alliance will also name its annual “Most Promising” startup.

This event is Thursday, Sept. 17, from 7:30 a.m.-5 p.m. at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business. Register here.

Sept. 18 — Halliburton Labs Finalists Pitch Day

Hear from Halliburton Labs' latest cohort of entrepreneurs. The incubator aims to advance the companies’ commercialization with support from Halliburton's network, facilities and financing opportunities. Its latest cohort includes one company from Texas.

This event is Friday, Sept. 18, from 8 a.m.-noon at The Ion. Register here.

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