Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Canada-founded energy tech company moves global HQ to Energy Corridor

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Pulsed-power technology company BlueSpark Energy will open its new global headquarters in Houston’s Energy Corridor to house its engineering, research and development, manufacturing, commercial and digital teams.

“Houston isn’t simply our new headquarters; it’s where a new BlueSpark begins,” Kahina Abdeli-Galinier, president and CEO of BlueSpark, said in a news release. ”We’re building the well health technology the industry needs to get more from existing wells, reduce intervention costs and keep wells producing for longer. Our new home brings us closer to our customers and places us at the heart of one of the most exciting markets in the industry, with the talent pool to match.”

The company, which began in Calgary, plans to grow its Houston workforce to 100 employees by the end of 2028, while the manufacturing element is expected to be operational in February 2027.

According to BlueSpark, the new facility will feature double the manufacturing floorspace of its current site, and the extra space will allow it to scale its tool manufacturing.

The headquarters is on West Sam Houston Parkway. BlueSpark's Chief Technology Officer Matt Mohajer and Chief Commercial Officer Zach Wilbur are already leading teams at the new space, according to the release.

BlueSpark develops pulsed-power technology that uses electrical energy to clean oil and gas well components, remove scale buildup and restore production without damaging equipment. Its technology helps operators reduce downtime, improve well performance and extend the productive life of existing wells.

Late last year, the company named Kahina Abdeli-Galinier as its CEO. It has since rebranded and focused on expanding its technology into new applications, including plugging and abandonment, cement removal and water services.

“We’re investing heavily in our technology, both the physics and the intelligence and delivery layer around it,” Abdeli-Galinier added in the release. “Having our engineering, manufacturing, digital, R&D and commercial teams in one place allows us to move much faster, giving our customers the tools they need to keep wells healthy and producing more for longer.”

Houston energy startups named finalists for 2026 Innovation Awards

Meet the Innovators

InnovationMap.com, EnergyCaptialHTX's sister website, has revealed the finalists for the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards, and the local energy sector is well-represented throughout the awards.

The sixth annual Houston Innovation Awards program returns in an all-digital format this fall to honor the best of Houston's innovation ecosystem, including startups, entrepreneurs, mentors, and more.

Finalists were determined by an esteemed panel of judges. The panel reviewed applications across 10 prestigious categories to determine our finalists. They will select the winner for each category, except for Startup of the Year, which will be chosen by the public via online voting launching later this month.

We will announce the honoree of our annual Trailblazer Award in the coming weeks, then stay tuned as we unveil all of this year's winners on InnovationMap.com in mid-November.

Without further ado, here are the 2026 Houston Innovation Awards finalists:

Minority-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by BIPOC or LGBTQ+ representation:

AI Made Fun
Deep Anchor Solutions
HEXAspec
Prana Surgical
Torres Orbital Mining Inc.

Female-founded Business

Honoring an innovative startup founded or co-founded by a woman:

Adair
ARIX Technologies
Bairitone Health
FlowCellutions
ParaDocs Health

Energy Transition Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing a solution within renewables, climatetech, clean energy, alternative materials, circular economy and beyond:

Capwell Services
FlowCellutions
Hertha Metals
Mars Materials
Solidec

Health Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup within the health and medical technology sectors:

Bairitone Health
InformAI Inc.
Prana Surgical
Skybound MedTech

Deep Tech Business

Honoring an innovative startup providing technology solutions based on substantial scientific or engineering challenges, including those in the AI, robotics and space sectors:

Casimir
Focis AI
Machine Saver Inc.
Square Robot
Venus Aerospace

Startup of the Year (People's Choice)

Honoring a startup celebrating a recent milestone or success. The winner will be selected by the community via an online voting experience:

Fluxworks
IronLattice
Lumino
Progress Report
Rosarium Health
Thread
TokenRoster

Scaleup of the Year

Honoring an innovative later-stage startup that's recently reached a significant milestone in company growth:

Erock
Hertha Metals
Venus Aerospace

Incubator/Accelerator of the Year

Honoring a local incubator or accelerator that is championing and fueling the growth of Houston startups:

Activate
Impact Hub Houston
MarMo Innovation

Mentor of the Year

Honoring an individual who dedicates their time and expertise to guide and support budding entrepreneurs:

Al Danto, Rice University
Eric Rubenstein, New Climate Ventures
Jeremy Pitts, Activate
Joe Alapat, Liongard
Kyle Judah, Rice University's Liu Idea Lab for Innovation & Entrepreneurship
Rachel Bickham, Bickham Services Unlimited LLC

Trailblazer Recipient

To be announced

Energy AI company opens first U.S. office in Houston after Halliburton deal

houston expansion

Building on its partnership with Houston-based oilfield services provider Halliburton, energy-sector AI company Shape Digital recently opened an office at The Ion. It’s the company’s first U.S. location.

Shape Digital’s workforce in Houston includes employees specializing in tech support, business development and client services. The company’s local hiring projections and headcount weren’t available. The new office will be located within Industrious at the Ion, according to Rice Alliance.

A key driver of the new Houston office: The company forecasts North America will account for more than 20 percent of its business in 2027.

“North America is a critical market for industrial innovation, and Houston sits at the center of companies driving that progress,” Caio Sene, vice president of client services at Shape Digital, said in a release. “Growing our presence here allows us to work alongside operators as they look for practical ways to turn existing operational data into clear recommendations for what to do next.”

Shape Digital, which also has offices in Singapore and Brazil, develops decision-making platforms for the oil and gas sector.

The Ion District office gives Shape Digital a presence close to Halliburton’s headquarters. In May, the two companies forged a partnership to combine Halliburton’s Digital Field Solverdecision-making system with Shape Digital’s AI portfolio.

Shape Digital layers AI software atop existing operations data rather than replacing legacy systems or adding new software.

The company’s suite of AI agents draws on more than 200 operations-monitoring algorithms, continually learning from company and industry data. The suite comprises four products: Shape Aura, Shape Lighthouse, Shape Lumen and Shape Reef.

Shape Digital says that by working with a customer’s existing operations data, it can deliver ROI in less than two months without any additional investment in equipment or infrastructure.

The company is a 2021 spinoff of Japan-based Modec. Modec builds, owns, and operates floating offshore oil and gas production facilities. Its Modec America subsidiary is based in Houston.

This article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

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