Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Houston geothermal companies secure more than $45M in DOE funding

geothermal boost

Three Houston-based companies—Fervo Energy, Quaise Energy and XGS Energy—have been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to advance geothermal technologies and field tests.

Combined, the companies will receive more than $45 million in funding from the DOE's Next-Generation Geothermal Field Tests and Geothermal Resource Characterization and Confirmation initiative. The projects were among 21 selected from around the country to receive a total of $99 million.

Fervo was selected to conduct two projects under the initiative for approximately $20 million in funding. For the first project, the geothermal unicorn, which achieved first power at its flagship geothermal plant last week, will drill and complete enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) wells in Elmore County, Idaho, and will deploy high-temperature seismic monitoring technology at record-high temperatures at or above 200°C.

For the second project, the company will conduct an appraisal drilling campaign at a "high-priority" site in Humboldt County, Nevada, to confirm if the reservoir is suitable for EGS development.

“We are grateful to the Department of Energy for funding these grants. We believe this is a clear indication from the federal government that expanding geothermal energy to new states is a national priority,” Jack Norbeck, CTO and co-founder of Fervo Energy, said in a news release. “We expect this funding to accelerate Fervo’s pipeline and advance the cutting edge of geothermal technologies.”

Fresh off a $180 million Series B, Quaise Energy also received $25 million in DOE funding through the initiative to support its Project Obsidian super hot geothermal plant in Central Oregon. The funding will go toward the analysis of the drilling, stimulation and flow results of the first two wells at the Project Obsidian site, which will help the company optimize its third well on site.

“This DOE support is a recognition of what we are building at Quaise and the progress we are making in the field, including the confirmation well currently being drilled at Project Obsidian,” Carlos Araque, CEO and president of Quaise, said in a release. “Our ambition has always been to make superhot geothermal a commercial reality, and Project Obsidian is where we first deliver on that promise.”

XGS Energy, which recently relocated its headquarters from Palo Alto, California, to Houston, was also selected for an exploration drilling project. The company will drill a deep vertical appraisal well in Socorro County, New Mexico, to determine if the site is a viable source of geothermal energy. XGS had not disclosed a funding estimate at press time.

The full value of the proposed DOE funding is subject to completion of award negotiations, according to Quaise.

Data from these projects will be shared through DOE’s Geothermal Data Repository (GDR), providing valuable information to researchers and stakeholders in the geothermal sector.

“This is an excellent example of how public and private entities can partner together to scale critical energy technologies,” Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Fervo, added in a release. “With this funding, the Department of Energy is making important investments to help Americans across the country gain access to clean, affordable geothermal energy.”

Other geothermal companies and institutions from around the country will complete the 17 remaining projects. They include:

Denver-based 400C Energy Inc.
Salt Lake City-based AlterG Resources
Denver-based DAVINCI EP LLC
Anchorage-based GeoAlaska LLC
Oklahoma City-based GreenFire Energy Inc.
Virginia-based Hexagon Energy LLC
Virginia-based INTEK Inc.
Chicago-based Invenergy Geothermal Development LLC
Massachusetts-based LiPower Geothermal LLC
Fort Worth-based Oriah Geothermal LLC
Reno-based Raser Power Systems LLC
Santa Fe-based San Ildefonso Services LLC
Salt Lake City-based The University of Utah
Reno-based TLS Geothermics Corp.
Salt Lake City-based Zanskar Geothermal and Minerals

Read more about the full list of projects here.

CenterPoint gets $50M DOE grant to improve Houston power grid

grid grant

A $50 million federal grant will help Houston-based CenterPoint Energy strengthen Houston’s power grid.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) grant will support power substation upgrades in the Houston area.

“Our mission is to build the most resilient coastal grid in the nation for the 2.9 million customers we proudly serve in the greater Houston area … [The grant] will directly fund industry-leading technology improvements that are expected to strengthen resiliency, reliability, and meet the growing energy needs of our region,” Jason Ryan, CenterPoint Energy’s executive vice president for regulatory services and government affairs, said in a release.

CenterPoint says the project will make it one of the first U.S. utilities to install Siemens Energy’s grid-stabilizing technology.

The project will create more than 500 construction and installation jobs, CenterPoint says.

“Generations of CenterPoint customers and families in the region will benefit from the advanced technology this grant is funding,” said Kathleen Jackson, a member of the Public Utility Commission of Texas. “And any time companies make improvements like this to their systems, the long-term impact is making the entire grid stronger for Texans.”

The $176.7 million substation project is part of CenterPoint’s Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative, which launched in 2024.

So far, the initiative has:

Installed nearly 82,400 storm-resilient poles and equipment
Trimmed and cleared more than 13,700 miles of trees and vegetation near power lines
Added nearly 820 grid automation and intelligence devices
Put more than 880 miles of power lines underground

The initiative kicked off three years after Winter Storm Uri. CenterPoint received harsh criticism for what customers complained was the utility’s slow response to the 2021 storm. Uri caused a massive power outage and at least 246 deaths across Texas.

CenterPoint blamed the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the power grid for most Texans, for not supplying the utility with enough electricity during and after the storm.

EnergyTech Cypher names 7 startup winners from Pilotathon pitch event

startup spotlight

Houston Energy and Climate Week was full of fast-paced pitches and inspiring technology, showcased during some of the week's signature events.

EnergyTech Cypher's annual Piloathon and Startup Showcase was one of the places to be, bringing together 16 pilot-ready startups to present their best seven-minute pitches before investors, plus 52 companies that demonstrated their technologies on the showcase floor.

"This year's cohort raised the bar," Nada Ahmed, co-founder of EnergyTech Cypher, shared in a news release. "Working with these founders through the pitch preparation process, we saw firsthand the depth of technology and commercial readiness they brought to the stage. Three ties in four categories says it all."

Seven startups took home top honors in various categories, all under this year's theme of "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution," with three categories ending in a tie. Judges included leaders from Baker Tilly, NRG Energy, Shell, Aramco Ventures, Baker Hughes, Avatar Innovations, Kanin Energy, NoviDigiTech, aiCTO Services, and the FIFA World Cup Houston Committee.

Here's who won in their respective categories:

Future of Industrial Work: Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects, and Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer. Otee was also named one of the 10 most-promising startups at the Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum during HECW.

Industrial Decarbonization: Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels

Grid Infrastructure and Distributed Energy: Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry, and Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure

Critical Minerals and Resource Security: Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen, and Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates.

Last year, the Pilotathon named eight winners from the competition, which focused on the theme of "Energy Access and Resilience." See the winners here.

EnergyTech Cypher rebranded from EnergyTech Nexus earlier this year. The energy transition hub also launched Cephyron, EnergyTech Cypher's new investor relationship management platform, built specifically for energy and climatech founders.

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