Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Houston geothermal startup adds former bp, Calpine execs to C-suite

new leaders

XGS Energy, a Houston-based developer of geothermal power systems, has added several energy industry veterans to its C-suite this summer.

The company named Al Vickers as its new chief operating officer earlier this month. Vickers will replace Ghazal Izadi in the role, as she moves into the chief growth officer position.

Vickers previously served as CEO of bp's U.S. Low Carbon Energy business and most recently was COO of Houston-based Grid United, which develops next-generation transmission infrastructure.

“I have spent my career developing, building, and operating large, complex energy infrastructure, and I am excited to work with XGS’s proven technology, which is ready to deliver clean, round-the-clock power at the scale the grid and customers need,” Vickers said in a news release. “XGS sits at the intersection of innovation, affordability, demand growth, responsible infrastructure development, and long-term energy resilience. I’m excited to roll up my sleeves and apply best practices from both oil and gas and infrastructure development to deliver gigawatt-scale geothermal projects.”

Kurt Fricker, who most recently held leadership roles at Hess Corporation, was also announced as XGS's new chief procurement officer.

The hires come shortly after XGS announced Richard Chong as its new chief financial officer in May.

Chong joins XGS from Houston-based power producer Calpine, where he most recently was vice president of finance. His work there included leading $2.25 billion in financing for Geysers, the world’s largest geothermal power complex.

Chong says XGS’ proven technology and the rising demand for clean power will help the company execute on its multi-gigawatt pipeline.

“I look forward to applying the experience I’ve built over two decades in energy finance to help XGS deliver clean, reliable power to customers and unlock the massive development opportunity ahead for next-generation geothermal,” Chong said in the release.

XGS’ first project is a 150-megawatt geothermal facility in New Mexico. It will supply around-the-clock electricity to the grid operated by Public Service Co. of New Mexico in support of Meta data centers.

XGS recently tapped Houston-based energy technology company Baker Hughes to provide engineering services for the New Mexico project.

XGS’ geothermal system uses thermally conductive materials to deliver affordable energy anywhere hot rock exists — without the need for water resources or specific geological conditions. This results in lower-risk projects, more site options, easier permitting and faster deployment.

Since 2023, XGS has raised nearly $57 million in venture capital.

XGS launched in 2008 in Palo Alto, California, as Geothermic Solution. In conjunction with its Series A round in 2023, the company rebranded to its current name. The company recently moved its headquarters to Houston, according to the Houston Business Journal.

Woodlands-based Lancium teams up on West Texas data center campus

coming soon

The Woodlands-based Lancium Technologies, which designs, develops, and manages gigawatt-scale data center campuses, has teamed up with Denver-based data center builder and operator Crusoe Energy Systems on a new grid-connected campus more than 100 miles east of Wichita Falls.

Construction on the 1-gigawatt Childress County campus, being built for an unidentified tech company, is expected to start in Q3 of this year.

Lancium owns the 270-acre site where the data center campus will be located and will set up and manage the campus’ energy infrastructure. Crusoe will design, build, and operate the campus.

The two companies already are working together on data centers in Abilene. Their first data center has already expanded to a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts, and a 900-megawatt data center is planned for adjacent land owned by Lancium.

The Abilene project is the first site of the Stargate initiative, an AI infrastructure program backed by MGX, OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank to create a U.S. network of hyperscale AI data centers. The four-year initiative has earmarked $500 billion to build the network.

“Childress is a natural next step in our partnership with Crusoe,” Lancium CEO Michael McNamara said in a news release. “Crusoe has been a great partner to build alongside in Abilene, and we’re glad to bring that same model — and the jobs and investment that come with it — to the community of Childress. We are deeply committed to working with local stakeholders to advance a model of development that addresses the broader needs of the community we will share for a very long time.”

Last year, Lancium appeared at No. 43 on Time and Statista’s list of America’s top greentech companies.

Lancium has raised $1.25 billion in funding since its founding in 2017, according to PitchBook and CB Insights.

In 2021, Lancium closed $150 million in funding led by Hanwha Solutions, with participation from SBI Holdings, Novawulf and other investors. Four years later, the company arranged $600 million in debt financing to advance development of “clean” data center campuses.

New York energy firm scoops up Houston’s Infinity Power Partners

m&a activity

Houston-based energy management and consulting firm Infinity Power Partners has been acquired by New York City-based Environ Energy, which also offers energy management and consulting services.

The deal creates a new “anchor segment” for Environ in the multifamily market. With the addition of Infinity Power’s roughly 2,000 clients in the multifamily sector, representing more than 1 million multifamily units under contract, Environ now has more than 8,000 U.S. clients in the commercial real estate, healthcare, manufacturing, education and government sectors.

“This acquisition continues to solidify our presence in key energy markets while aligning with founders who share our deep commitment to client success,” Environ CEO Chris Sternberg said in a news release.

Infinity Power co-founders and managing partners Nick Altman and Peter Selber have joined Environ, a portfolio company of investment firm 424 Capital. Altman and Selber founded Infinity Power in 2011.

“We built our business one relationship at a time,” Selber said, “with a strong commitment to the communities we serve. That same dedication is reflected in Environ’s approach — now delivered at scale.”

Altman says the acquisition is part of the “next chapter” in energy management. Energy management services help commercial customers reduce utility bills, improve equipment life, achieve green energy goals, and decrease risk tied to fluctuating energy prices.

“Energy management is a culture for continual improvement of energy performance and efficiency that’s integrated within an organization’s normal business practice,” according to the U.S. Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy.

In all, Environ has made six acquisitions in the past 17 months.

Last year, Environ acquired another Houston-based energy management and consulting firm, CSD Energy Advisors. In that deal, Environ gained nearly 1,000 clients, including several Fortune 500 companies and three large industrial energy users in Texas. As part of the deal, CSD co-founders Andrew Barth and JB Sowyrda joined Environ.

Also last year, Environ purchased Carrollton-based energy advisory firm Rapid Power Management (RPM).

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