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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

  • Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
  • Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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ExxonMobil expands Gulf Coast CCS business with Louisiana deal

carbon contract

Spring-based energy powerhouse ExxonMobil has picked up another project in the carbon capture and storage (CCS) market.

Natural gas pipeline operator Williams Cos. has tapped ExxonMobil to transport and store up to one metric ton per year of CO2 from Williams’ natural gas collection and processing plant in southwest Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale.

Williams will transport natural gas via its Louisiana Energy Gateway pipeline, then process the natural gas and deliver it to the Gulf Coast for export as liquefied natural gas (LNG). The LNG will be used in power generation, residential and commercial heating, and industrial processes.

Williams recently agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5 billion to expand Williams’ LNG presence in the Haynesville Shale. Haynesville is the country’s third-largest producer of natural gas.

Once the deal closes, Williams will own a $1.5 billion project in southwest Louisiana that will expand capacity of the Transco natural gas distribution system. The system serves power and LNG-export customers. Williams will also gain over 4,000 miles of pipeline and more than one million acres.

While Williams is based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, it has a significant presence in Houston. Last month, Green Street’s Real Estate Alert reported Williams bought the 64-story, 1.4 million-square-foot Williams Tower south of The Galleria from Invesco Real Estate for more than $300 million. The company will occupy about 360,000 square feet in the skyscraper for its Houston hub.

Williams employs about 800 people in Bayou City, including roughly 700 who work at Williams Tower, and plans to hire another 100 by the end of this year.

The Williams deal is ExxonMobil’s seventh CCS contract. ExxonMobil’s CCS portfolio supports LNG, lower-carbon-intensity steel, ammonia, natural gas processing, industrial gases and methanol.

ExxonMobil has established a “carbon superhighway” along the Gulf Coast to fuel its CCS business. The company owns and operates a more than 1,300-mile CO2 pipeline system, the largest in the U.S.

“Carbon capture is becoming an increasingly important part of industrial operations, but capture alone doesn’t solve the problem of high emissions,” says ExxonMobil. “What matters next is how CO2 is transported, used, and stored.”

ExxonMobil’s CCS initiatives are aimed at capturing a chunk of the rapidly growing CCS market in the U.S. Straits Research forecasts the market will grow from $5.66 billion this year to $13.56 billion by 2034.

“It’s not every day you get to witness the birth of a new American industry, but that’s exactly what’s happening right now at the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Dominic Genetti, senior vice president of CCS at ExxonMobil, wrote in an article published last year on the company’s website.

Fervo Energy, Mercury Fund leaders named first experts in residence for TEX-E

energy mentors

Two leading companies in Houston's clean energy scene have been named the Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship's first experts in residence.

TEX-E announced this month that Houston-based geothermal unicorn Fervo Energy and venture capital firm Mercury Fund have joined the nonprofit's new Expert-in-Residence partnership. The program aims to connect TEX-E Fellows with "the people and organizations shaping the future of energy and entrepreneurship."

The 2026 TEX-E Fellows were named in June and include 67 students from six Texas universities and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Nineteen are from Houston universities. See the full list here.

Through the Expert-in-Residence program, fellows will be able to network and work with:

"More than anything, students need the determination and creativity to step outside of their comfort zones and tackle problems that lack clear answers. At Fervo, we've consistently bet on young people who lack traditional 'hard skills' but are willing to embrace uncertainty and learn on the job. That open-mindedness will take students far," Jewett said in a prepared statement. Fervo named Jewett as COO in June.

TEX-E was founded in 2022 through partnerships with MIT Martin Trust Center for Entrepreneurship and Greentown Labs. It works with university students from six schools: Rice University, University of Houston, Prairie View A&M University, The University of Texas at Austin, Texas A&M University and MIT.

The organization named Houston venture capital and innovation leader Sandy Guitar as its new executive director last year. Guitar previously served as general partner and managing director at Houston-based VC firm HX Venture Fund and is co-founder of Weathergage Capital.

TEX-E is known for its student track within the Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition at CERAWeek. It awarded $50,000 to student teams from the University of Texas and Rice University. Read more here.

BP to sell Houston’s Archaea Energy after $4.1 billion bet on biogas

RNG exit

Oil and gas conglomerate BP is unloading its Houston-based U.S. renewable natural gas business just four years after buying it.

The British company announced the planned sale of Archaea during its most recent earnings call but offered few details.

On the call, BP’s new CEO, Meg O’Neill, said her company had put Archaea on the market and already had attracted interest from potential buyers. BP acquired Houston-based Archaea Energy, the country’s largest producer of renewable natural gas (RNG), in 2022 for about $4.1 billion.

BP, whose North American headquarters is in Houston, is streamlining its portfolio. As such, O’Neill said Archaea represents a “capital intense” approach to biogas instead of the “capital light” approach BP now favors.

“If there’s somebody who sees an opportunity to create additional value, who will invest in that business, who will build on the foundation, because our team has made really good progress in improving the profitability of that business, then that will be a good outcome,” O’Neill told Wall Street analysts.

The proposed sale of Archaea is part of BP’s effort to sell about $20 billion in assets by the end of next year.

Archaea captures biogas, a natural byproduct of waste decomposition at landfills and dairy farms, and converts it into electricity or RNG. This process leads to cleaner air, less odor, and more sustainable energy than traditional fossil fuels.

Archaea was slated to be a cornerstone of BP’s plan to boost its biogas supply by roughly 600 percent to the equivalent of about 70,000 barrels of oil per day.

Bioenergy had been identified as one of bp’s five pillars of its multibillion-dollar energy transition initiative.

Another pillar: EV charging. Last month, BP agreed to sell its EV charging business in Austria to Switzerland’s Volenergy, along with 250 BP-branded stores and a fleet of business vehicles.

“By concentrating our capital on the assets and markets where BP can be most competitive and best serve customers, we are strengthening our balance sheet and creating a stronger downstream portfolio,” Richard Harding, interim executive vice president of downstream at BP, said of the Volenergy deal.

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