Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Hertha Metals raises $133M Series A round, plans high-purity iron plant

cleaner steel

Conroe-based Hertha Metals has closed a $133.65 million Series A round that includes a $65 million equity investment from the Pentagon. The startup uses a one-step process to convert iron into molten steel or high-purity iron.

Khosla Ventures and Doerr Capital co-led the round, with participation from CEV, Pear Ventures, Gates Frontier, Niterra SUISO no MORI Fund, Toyota Ventures, and Siemens Financial Services.

The federal investment came from the U.S. Department of Defense’s Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment program. The program aims to strengthen and modernize the U.S. Defense Industrial Base, a network that researches, designs, builds, and maintains military weapons, equipment, technology, and services.

The Series A funding will finance construction of Hertha Chalyx, a plant that will be capable of producing 10,000 metric tons of steel-grade and magnet-grade high-purity iron.

Hertha says Chalyx will provide U.S.-made material for manufacturers of rare-earth magnets. Today, China controls more than 90 percent of the global manufacturing of rare-earth magnets.

Rare-earth magnets can be found in fighter jets, smart bombs, submarines, satellites, drones and other military hardware. These magnets are also key components in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, computer hard drives, smartphones, headphones, cordless tools and an array of other products.

“Every electric vehicle, aerospace platform, radar system, and data center depends on domestic iron and magnet feedstock suppliers,” Laureen Meroueh, founder and CEO of Hertha, said in a press release.

“Hertha Chalyx closes that gap,” she added. “We are building the supply chain this country needs, and we are doing it by providing a domestic cost-competitive option for manufacturers while unlocking safer and cleaner production.”

Hertha says Chalyx, alongside its Pi100 pilot project, will be the first modern-day “iron and steel innovation complex.” The startup expects to break ground on Chalyx this year.

Since its founding in 2022, Hertha has raised more than $150 million from investors.

This spring, Hertha led the manufacturing category on Fast Company’s list of the World’s Most Innovative Companies of 2026.

3 must-know fall application deadlines for Houston energy innovators

Editor's note: As fall reaches full swing, Houston's innovation and cleantech scene is calling on the latest batch of founders and startups looking to make a difference. A number of accelerators have opened applications. Read below to see which might be a good fit for you or your venture. And take careful note of the deadlines. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional information and programs.

Did we miss an accelerator or competition accepting applications? Email innoeditor@innovationmap.com for editorial consideration.

Greentown Lab's Go Make 2027: Advanced Carbon Materials with ExxonMobil

Deadline: Oct. 9

Details: Greentown Labs is seeking applications from startups developing novel carbon-based technologies for its latest Go Make cohort in conjunction with ExxonMobil. The structured accelerator is designed to facilitate validation activities and explore potential long-term collaborations with Exxon, according to Greentown. Founders will have the opportunity to engage directly with industry leaders to test, validate and scale their carbon technologies in real commercial contexts. The program tentatively starts on Jan. 20, 2027 and concludes June 16, 2027. Find more information here.

Activate's U.S. Fellowship Cohort 2027

Deadline: Oct. 30

Details: Activate supports scientists at "the outset of their entrepreneurial journey." It partners with U.S.-based funders and research institutions to support its fellows in developing high-impact technology. Its fellows receive a living stipend, research and development funding, connections from Activate's robust network of mentors and access to a curriculum specific to the program for two years. Applicants must have a bachelor’s degree and 4-plus years of post-baccalaureate scientific research, engineering or technology development experience. Their work must be based in the physical or biological sciences or related engineering disciplines. Find more information here.

Rice Innovation Fellows

Deadline: Oct. 30

Details: The Liu Idea Lab for Innovation and Entrepreneurship (Lilie)'s Rice Innovation Fellows program supports Rice Ph.D. students and postdocs in turning their research into real-world ventures. Participants receive $10,000 in translational research funding, co-working space and personalized mentorship. Candidates from all Rice engineering and science-related disciplines are encouraged to apply. Find more information here.

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A version of this article originally appeared on our sister site, InnovationMap.

Houston carbon removal company secures $35M in financing

national scale

Houston-based Vaulted Deep, a waste management and carbon removal company, has announced a major $35 million debt facility from Italian investment bank Mediobanca to support its national expansion.

U.K.-based market energy solutions CFP Energy arranged the deal, which is “the largest publicly disclosed U.S. commercial debt deal in durable carbon removal to be secured by long-term purchase contracts,” according to a news release from the companies.

The financing will support new waste disposal sites for Vaulted Deep and advancements of the company’s AI-enabled site development platform. The platform helps identify locations, navigate permitting and optimize injection operations. When candidates are looking for sites, the platform will pull from regulatory, geology and waste-supply data to assist, which Vaulted Deep says will help streamline the permitting process. After the site is operating, the platform helps control algorithms to maximize safe disposal capacity and monitor the process along the way.

"Waste operators across the country need new options as traditional disposal options become limited,” Julia Reichelstein, CEO and co-founder of Vaulted Deep, said in the release. “This financing lets us take on more projects and invest in the tools that help us evaluate and develop new sites faster. This is a meaningful milestone for Vaulted as we move into the next phase of building infrastructure at a much larger scale."

The deal is supported by Vaulted Deep's long-term waste service and carbon removal purchase contracts. The company says it delivered more than 20,000 tons of carbon removal to buyers in the first half of 2026, which is more than it delivered in all of 2025.

"By facilitating these types of transactions, we connect institutional capital with innovative climate technologies, helping accelerate the deployment of high-integrity carbon removal solutions,” Tyler Manchester, head of voluntary carbon for CFP Energy, added in the release. “It reflects growing investor confidence in these solutions, driven by rising demand from corporate buyers seeking permanent pathways to support net-zero commitments and long-term climate strategies."

Beyond the facility, Vaulted Deep has secured $48 million in equity financing in addition to its $8 million from the XPRIZE Carbon Removal competition, backed by Elon Musk’s charitable organization, The Musk Foundation.

The company's well injection technology is used to store organic waste deep underground in stable geologic formations. In 2025, it inked a 12-year deal with Microsoft to remove up to 4.9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from the environment.

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