Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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Houston cleantech startup secures $134M to develop ‘superhot’ geothermal plant

deep round

Houston-based Quaise Energy, a producer of utility-scale geothermal power, raised $134 million in a Series B round to advance its “superhot” geothermal power plant.

Climate-focused San Francisco-based investment firm Prelude Ventures led the round, with participation from JERA Co., Japan’s largest power generation company, and Idemitsu Kosan, one of Japan’s largest energy companies. Nearly all existing investors, including cleantech-focused investment firm Safar Partners, participated in the round.

“We have backed Quaise since the beginning because we believed accessing superhot rock would unlock geothermal energy at a scale the world has never seen,” Mark Cupta, managing director at Prelude Ventures, said in a press release.

The startup expects more equity and debt deals to close “imminently.” Quaise has raised $230 million since its founding in 2018.

Quaise says some of the fresh funding will go toward building the world’s first commercial-scale “superhot” geothermal power plant —Project Obsidian in central Oregon. In addition, Quaise is earmarking money for continued development and commercialization of its millimeter-wave drilling system toward depths exceeding 5 kilometers (about 16,400 feet).

Quaise uses a millimeter-wave drilling system developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to remove rock at depths and temperatures that aren’t economically feasible with conventional drilling. With this technology, Quaise can reach rock at temperatures of around 570 degrees to 930 degrees in most places worldwide, enabling construction of geothermal systems that rival fossil fuels and nuclear energy in power density and that rival renewables in cost.

“Our ambition is to power civilization with Earth's most compelling energy source. This round takes us from field-proven technology to first commercial revenues,” Carlos Araque, co-founder, president and CEO of Quaise, added in the release.

Quaise has demonstrated the capability of its millimeter-wave drilling system at its Central Texas test site, drilling more than about 330 feet through granite in 2025—the first time the technology penetrated basement rock at full scale in the field. The company is approaching a depth of about 3,300 feet at the same site.

Construction of Project Obsidian is underway at Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest. The project, which has the potential to generate gigawatt-scale power, is slated to deliver electricity to the Pacific Northwest grid by 2030.

Shell expands lower-carbon energy solutions while cutting emissions

The View from HETI

Shell’s approach to sustainable development reflects an integrated value chain perspective—reducing emissions from oil and gas production, transforming downstream businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions, and building new energy businesses at scale. The company’s 31% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 operational emissions since 2016 demonstrates that this integrated strategy delivers results.

Three Strategic Priorities Drive Progress

Leading Integrated Gas: Shell is growing its world-leading LNG business with lower carbon intensity, meeting rising demand for natural gas as a transition fuel and foundation for renewable energy integration.

Advantaged Upstream: The company is cutting emissions from oil and gas production while keeping output stable, proving that operational excellence can reduce environmental impact without sacrificing energy security.

Differentiated Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions: Shell is transforming its businesses to offer more low-carbon solutions while reducing sales of traditional oil products, positioning the company for the evolving energy market.

Shell’s emissions reductions are happening across global operations:

United States: Significant emissions cuts from production assets through operational efficiency and technology deployment

Malaysia & Philippines: Emissions reduction programs at offshore operations demonstrating that low-carbon production works in diverse environments

Norway: Continued emissions intensity improvements from mature assets, showing that even older fields can decarbonize

Whale Partnership Demonstrates Innovation

Shell’s recent partnership with Chevron at the Whale deepwater asset showcases what’s possible with next-generation project design. By integrating emissions reduction strategies from the start, the partnership has lowered the greenhouse gas intensity approximately 30% over the project lifecycle relative to similar deepwater oil and gas production assets.

Shell’s strategy to deliver more value with less emissions includes climate change transition plans, mitigation actions and decarbonization levers supported by a suite of processes and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets such as:

2025 Results:

Eliminated routine flaring from upstream operations

Maintained methane emissions intensity below 0.2%

By 2030:

Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control (vs. 2016)

Achieve near-zero methane emissions

Reduce Scope 3 net carbon intensity (NCI) by 15-20% (vs. 2016)

Cut customer emissions from oil products by 15-20% (vs. 2021)

By 2050:

Achieve net zero emissions across Scopes 1, 2, and 3

Across all strategic initiatives, Shell prioritizes trading and optimization capabilities that maximize value while minimizing emissions. This commercial approach ensures that the company’s energy transition strategy creates long-term shareholder value while advancing climate goals.

Shell is building an integrated energy business for the low-carbon future by delivering the energy products customers need today while investing in the solutions they’ll need tomorrow.

As a steering-level member of HETI, Shell exemplifies the leadership and commitment required to transform Houston’s energy sector while maintaining global energy security.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog . Explore Shell’s energy transition strategy at: https://www.shell.us/about-us/sustainability.html, and read the full analysis here: https://htxenergytransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/07.18.25-HETI-Leadership-Narrative-Report-V2_pages-1-2.pdf

UH report projects $1T in new midstream infrastructure needed to power AI era

midstream report

A new study from the University of Houston estimates that the U.S. will need more than $1 trillion in new midstream energy infrastructure investment by 2052 to meet the rising energy demands from data centers in the age of artificial intelligence.

According to the report, this would average $40 billion to $48 billion per year across investments in natural gas, oil, natural gas liquids, hydrogen and CO2 infrastructure.

UH, in collaboration with the INGAA Foundation and Wood and ESMIA Consultants, released the 2025 North American Midstream Infrastructure Report, which details the needs, pipelines and associated infrastructure necessary to meet global market needs and increased energy demands. UH led the consortium that conducted the analysis. Paul Doucette, hydrogen program officer at UH, served as the principal investigator of the report.

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, data center energy consumption could reach 800 terawatt-hours annually by 2050, a roughly 167 percent increase from 300 terawatt-hours in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity generation from all energy sources is projected to reach 5,858 terawatt-hours in 2052, a 27 percent increase over current levels.

The report proposes two routes to meeting this level of demand.

The first scenario is a reference case based on current federal, state and provincial policies as of April 1, 2025. The second option presents a low-carbon scenario. The report concludes that natural gas would need to remain a “foundational component of the region’s energy system” in both scenarios.

“Meeting energy demand is a critical challenge right now, and this report quantifies the necessary midstream infrastructure and corresponding development dollars needed to meet that demand,” Hebe Shaw, executive director of the INGAA Foundation, said in a news release. “Meeting the energy needs of North America will require sustained investment and development, which must begin now to ensure a safe, reliable and affordable energy system.”

The report also identified several key midstream infrastructure requirements, including:

103,000 miles of new natural gas gathering pipelines
37,000 miles of additional natural gas transmission pipelines, which includes approximately 33,800 miles in the United States
24 million jobs over 25 years

The report adds that hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and other decarbonization strategies can help meet infrastructure needs.

UH released a condensed version of the report here.

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