Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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ERCOT has launched its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative to help resolve grid challenges and meet growing demand. Photo via Getty Images

ERCOT steps up grid innovation efforts to support growing power demand

grid boost

As AI data centers gobble up more electricity, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — whose grid supplies power to 90 percent of Texas — has launched an initiative to help meet challenges presented by an increasingly strained power grid.

ERCOT, based in the Austin suburb of Taylor, said its new Grid Research, Innovation, and Transformation (GRIT) initiative will tackle research and prototyping of emerging technology and concepts to “deeply understand the implications of rapid grid and technology evolution, positioning ERCOT to lead in the future energy landscape.”

“As the ERCOT grid continues to rapidly evolve, we are seeing greater interest from industry and academia to collaborate on new tools and innovative technologies to advance the reliability needs of tomorrow’s energy systems,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said in a news release. “These efforts will provide an opportunity to share ideas and bring new innovations forward, as we work together to lead the evolution and expansion of the electric power grid.”

In conjunction with the GRIT initiative, ERCOT launched the Research and Innovation Partnership Engagement (RIPE) program. The program enables partners to work with ERCOT on developing technology aimed at resolving grid challenges.

To capitalize on ideas for grid improvements, the organization will host its third annual ERCOT Innovation Summit on March 31 in Round Rock. The summit “brings together thought leaders across the energy research and innovation ecosystem to explore solutions that use innovation to impact grid transformation,” ERCOT said.

“As the depth of information and industry collaboration evolves, we will continue to enhance the GRIT webpages to create a dynamic and valuable resource for the broader industry to continue fostering strong collaboration and innovation with our stakeholders,” said Venkat Tirupati, ERCOT’s vice president of DevOps and grid transformation.

ERCOT’s GRIT initiative comes at a time when the U.S. is girding for heightened demand for power, due in large part to the rise of data centers catering to the AI boom.

A study released in 2024 by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) predicted electricity for data centers could represent as much as 9.1 percent of total power usage in the U.S. by 2030. According to EPRI, the share of Texas electricity consumed by data centers could climb from 4.6 percent in 2023 to almost 11 percent by 2030.

A report issued in 2024 by the federal government’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory envisions an even faster increase in data-center power usage. The report projected data centers will consume as much as 12 percent of U.S. electricity by 2028, up from 4.4 percent in 2023.

In 2023, the EPRI study estimated, 80 percent of the U.S. electrical load for data centers was concentrated in two states, led by Virginia and Texas. The University of Texas at Austin’s Center for Media Engagement reported in July that Texas is home to 350 data centers, second only to Virginia.

“The U.S. electricity sector is working hard to meet the growing demands of data centers, transportation electrification, crypto-mining, and industrial onshoring, while balancing decarbonization efforts,” David Porter, EPRI’s vice president of electrification and sustainable energy strategy, said. “The data center boom requires closer collaboration between large data center owners and developers, utilities, government, and other stakeholders to ensure that we can power the needs of AI while maintaining reliable, affordable power to all customers.”

ERCOT has made four leadership changes. Photo courtesy of ERCOT

ERCOT makes major leadership changes, names COO

reorganization

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, announced a reorganization amongst its leadership.

“These changes were designed to harness the collaborative talents and strengths of our experienced team in supporting the delivery of reliable and efficient energy to the millions of Texans that we serve,” Pablo Vegas, ERCOT President and CEO, says in a news release.

Effective September 1, four ERCOT leaders have new titles and positions.

Woody Rickerson has been named to the newly created position of senior vice president and COO of ERCOT. He previously served as vice president of system planning and weatherization. In his new role, he will maintain control over weatherization and planning while adding grid and commercial operations to his responsibilities.

“This new position will leverage Rickerson’s deep operations experience and support ERCOT’s continued investments in grid innovations,” adds Vegas.

Kristi Hobbs, who previously served as vice president of corporate strategy and public utility commission relations, will replace Rickerson as vice president of system planning and weatherization and will report directly to Rickerson. She will oversee transmission planning, generator interconnection activities, modeling, and weatherization in her new role.

ERCOT announced two other appointments:

Betty Day, vice president of security and compliance and chief compliance officer, has assumed oversight of business continuity.
Rebecca Zerwas will serve as director of state policy and public utility commission relations, board liaison.

“As our industry faces dynamic changes, ERCOT is continuously evolving and making the necessary improvements to the grid to support the needs of a growing population and robust economy," Vegas says. "This reorganization allows us to sharpen our focus on daily operations while implementing our long-term strategic plan."

Images via ERCOT.com

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8 must-attend Houston energy events happening in November 2026

Mark your calendars

Editor's note: The November calendar is front-loaded with events for those in Houston's energy sector. From annual summits to an expo exploring AI and energy, these are the events you'll want to register for this month.

Nov. 2 — Energy Leadership Speaker Series

Join UH Energy for a conversation with Jason Wells, Chair, President, and Chief Executive Officer of CenterPoint Energy. The Energy Leadership Speaker Series is a year-long program featuring 12 expert-led sessions covering topics from energy leadership to AI and data science in energy operations. The November topic is "Grid Modernization & The Electricity Revolution."

This event begins at 4:15 pm on November 2 at the University of Houston. Find details here.

Nov. 3-4 — Next-Gen AI for Energy Summit 2026

The summit brings together over 600 senior executives from energy, technology, policy, and investment communities worldwide to explore six strategic areas: operational optimization, digital infrastructure, finance, digital twins, risk management, cybersecurity, and AI-driven market and regulatory strategies. The summit is co-located with EnergyTech X, an invite-only forum connecting energy innovators, AI founders, startups, and investors to scale next-generation energy technologies.

This event begins Nov. 3 at the Intercontinental Houston. Register here.

Nov. 3-5: 17th Annual Operational Excellence in Oil & Gas Summit

The 17th Annual Operational Excellence in Oil & Gas Summit will focus on aligning technology, process, and workforce to balance reliability, resilience, and operational cost. It will feature case studies on AI adoption, asset management, and workforce modernization.

This event begins Nov. 3 at Norris Conference Center. Register here.

Nov. 4-5 — 2026 OPIS Global LPG Conference: Powering Global Connectivity

This November, industry leaders, traders, producers, and infrastructure stakeholders will once again converge in Houston—the world’s LPG hub—for the 2026 OPIS Global LPG Conference. The conference will cover the global LPG market, which is entering a new phase of structural evolution, and how the industry is moving from managing volume to mastering the connectivity between expanding supply hubs and global energy and petrochemical demand.

This event begins Nov. 4 at the Royal Sonesta Houston Galleria. Register here.

Nov. 4-6: SAF North America Congress 2026

The aviation and energy value chains will gather in Houston once again to help shape the future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in North America. The focus will be on safeguarding progress made to date and ensuring SAF remains central to energy and climate strategies.

This event begins Nov. 4 at Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

Nov. 11: BNEF Summit Houston 2026

The BNEF Summit Houston 2026 will explore how AI-driven demand, geopolitical tensions, and electrification are reshaping energy systems at unprecedented speed. Bringing together 600 leaders across energy, tech, digital infrastructure and finance, the summit will address the race to build power, infrastructure, and supply chains — and who will fund, deliver, and benefit from the next phase of growth.

This event takes place Nov. 11 at Post Oak Houston. Register here.

Nov. 11-12: Energy Supply Chain & Procurement Summit

For 12 years, the Energy Supply Chain and Procurement Summit has brought senior procurement, supply chain, and logistics leaders to Houston — from operators, EPCs, utilities, service and equipment providers, and the suppliers they depend on. At the 2026 summit, leaders will discuss what production growth is doing to sourcing, supplier risk, and assurance of supply, and what’s working.

This event begins Nov. 11 at Houston Marriott Uptown. Register here.

Nov. 18-19: American Data Centers & AI Conference and Exhibition 2026

Set to redefine the intersection of energy and digital infrastructure, the American Data Centers & AI Conference and Exhibition convenes in Houston for its second annual event. The event will address the increasing demand for high-performance computing and the sustainable development of AI infrastructure, which requires significant power. Participants can expect to learn about practical solutions in energy integration, modern data center design, and scalable approaches. The agenda includes presentations from leading experts, demonstrations of new technologies for thermal management and grid optimization, and detailed discussions on AI's environmental impact and how to reuse generated heat.

This event begins Nov. 18 at the Double Tree Hotel at Greenway Plaza. Register here.

Utah solar company acquires Houston projects, expands to Texas

solar deals

Utah-based solar technology and battery storage company SunPower has announced its expansion into Texas by acquiring “prime project assets” from Houston installer Green Light Solar.

As part of the deal, Green Light Solar CEO James Garrett will lead SunPower’s U.S. installation group. Garrett is based in the Houston area, according to LinkedIn.

Green Light Solar focuses on residential and commercial solar installations, battery backups and whole-home generators throughout Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Colorado. As of press time, SunPower had not disclosed which specific projects or assets were included in the acquisition.

In addition to the Green Light acquisition, SunPower also announced its second strategic partnership with Fort Worth-based SOLRITE Energy, which provides solar and battery project financing and virtual power plant capabilities.

Through the partnership, SunPower plans to expand its residential solar and battery storage business and grow its virtual power plant (VPP) network in Texas.

A virtual power plant is a network of connected energy sources that can supply electricity to the grid when demand is high. The network draws on energy stored in individual residential and commercial battery systems. VPPs can also help participating homeowners generate additional revenue by selling their stored power.

“SOLRITE not only sources projects to us but also provides project funding for innovative systems with large batteries connected to a VPP, enabling power sales into the open market,” T. J. Rodgers, SunPower CEO, said in a news release. “That VPP capability provides an extra source of income that SOLRITE shares with homeowners and EPCs, making SOLRITE an attractive partner.”

SunPower will bring its sales, installation and lifetime warranty support to the partnership, while SOLRITE will provide its virtual power plant platform and solar financing capabilities, according to the release.

"Building our VPP business is a key part of SunPower’s growth strategy going forward,” Kapil Rai, EVP of Direct at SunPower, added in the release. “Our partnership with SOLRITE gives us a path to bring together customer acquisition, solar, storage deployment, and financing to develop this business in Texas and beyond.”

Solid-state generator company secures $9M in financing, names CTO

fresh financing

ATS Energy has secured a $9 million investment to help commercialize its solid-state generator technology, a representative from the company tells Energy Capital.

The Colorado-based company is a member of Houston's Greentown Labs climatech community and was named the second most-promising startup in the Innovations for Traditional Energy, Electricity, & the Grid track during CERA Week's Energy Venture Day and Pitch Competition in March.

ATS's technology converts industrial waste heat into electricity via its proprietary thermoelectric cartridges, according to a news release. The cartridges convert the otherwise wasted thermal energy directly into usable electricity with no turbine, no moving parts and no emissions.

"We have spent years building a proven track record of breakthrough technology," Doug Hudson, CEO of ATS Energy, said in the release. "What has developed over the past year is that markets are moving toward ATS Energy, said in the release. We've moved well beyond early interest to commercial commitments, active proposals and a pipeline that continues to expand across multiple industrial sectors. That puts us in a tremendous position to meet the moment in delivering energy to industry. This investment responds to real commercial opportunity, and it positions ATS Energy to scale production, meet customer demand faster, and drive commercial deployments."

According to the release, ATS plans to complete and deploy its first commercial generator using the thermoelectric cartridges by mid-2027. The company shared that it plans to begin revenue-generating operations next year, as well.

ATS has also named Edward Ganja as its new CTO. Ganja previously served as a technology advisor for ATS and spent more than 30 years at Shell, most recently as vice president of catalyst and analytical technology in Houston, according to LinkedIn.

"Having worked closely with the team as a Technology Adviser, I am thrilled to step into the Chief Technology Officer role to lead our technology strategy and advanced materials scale-up," Ganja shared in a LinkedIn post. "ATS is tackling crucial energy challenges, and I look forward to working with our talented team, partners, and industry colleagues to accelerate our commercial development and technological footprint."

A representative from the company shares that ATS has three employees in Texas, including two in Houston. The company is targeting industrial facilities, including Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants, for its production model, which will leverage established manufacturing capabilities to help quickly scale its commercial pipeline.

"We are scaling manufacturing with the discipline required for commercial-grade industrial deployment, moving beyond proof-of-concept to deliver mission-critical equipment," Terry Hill, COO of ATS, added in the release. "We've been building the supply chain, identifying the right manufacturing partners and putting the processes in place to move toward repeatable production. By leveraging contract manufacturing, we can focus our capital on the technology, the product and our customers rather than building factories. Just as importantly, we're working to reduce the time between installations so we can respond to the demand we're seeing in the market."

ATS won the prestigious Earthshot Prize in the Fix Our Climate category in 2024. The Earthshot Prize, founded by Prince William, awards £1 million to five energy startups each year over a decade.

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