Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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Fervo and Google strike major deal and more top energy transition news

Top Energy News

Editor's note: September is a big month for the energy sector in Houston, bringing marquee events to town, alongside big news headlines. From a Fervo-Google powerhouse deal to NVIDIA's $2 billion investment, here are the five most-read energy transition headlines published September 1-15, 2026:

Fervo Energy strikes largest-ever power deal with Google

In its largest-ever purchase agreement, Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy will supply 396 megawatts of power to tech powerhouse Google. The deal includes an option for Google to expand capacity by about 600 megawatts, for a total of 1 gigawatt, by June 2030, according to Fervo. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. Google will purchase carbon-free energy from Fervo for a potential data center in Utah, where Fervo is building its more than $2 billion Cape Station geothermal project. Continue reading.

In $2 billion deal, NVIDIA takes 20% stake in Woodlands-based Lancium

Lancium has partnered with AI leader NVIDIA. Photo courtesy Lancium

With an initial investment of $2 billion, AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA just acquired a 20 percent stake in The Woodlands-based Lancium, which develops large-scale campuses that combine AI data centers and onsite power supplies. Lancium didn’t disclose the dollar amount. The Information, a news website, reported NVIDIA’s investment totaled $2 billion, with the possibility of an additional $1 billion if Lancium achieves certain milestones. Continue reading.

Meet the 80+ startups pitching at Houston Energy and Climate Week

One of the highlights from Houston Energy and Climate Week is hearing directly from the up-and-coming founders working to reshape the energy landscape. This year, dozens of startups from Brazil to Berkeley and from right here in the Bayou City will compete for cash prizes and bragging rights while showcasing their concepts at HECW pitch events. Continue reading.

San Antonio company breaks ground on 347MW solar project outside of Houston

Crews have broken ground on the forthcoming 347-megawatt direct-current SunRoper Solar project in Wharton County, Texas, that will add capacity to the ERCOT grid. The solar project, which is slated to begin operations in December 2027, will provide electricity to an undisclosed Fortune 100 company under a long-term power purchase agreement. Continue reading.

UH team lands $2.9M DOE grant to develop next-gen magnets with AI

University of Houston researchers are leading an effort to find alternatives to a key element of the U.S. economy. A UH-led coalition is exploring the use of AI to design and manufacture next-generation permanent magnets for the energy and industrial sectors. The project seeks to develop new, more sustainable magnets that reduce U.S. reliance on vulnerable foreign sources of critical minerals, primarily China. A nearly $2.9 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy supports the work. Continue reading.

ExxonMobil secures approval for $5B East Texas carbon capture project

ccs expansion

Spring-based ExxonMobil has won approval from the Texas Railroad Commission for a $5 billion carbon capture and storage project in East Texas.

Dominic Genetti, senior vice president of CCS at ExxonMobil, told The Financial Times, which broke the news, that the Railroad Commission’s action is a “major milestone” that lets the company keep expanding along the Gulf Coast. In a 2-1 vote, commissioners authorized a carbon sequestration permit for the project.

“The Railroad Commission clearly recognizes the important role carbon capture and storage can play in meeting growing global demand for lower-carbon products while supporting new jobs and economic growth,” Genetti said.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approved ExxonMobil’s Rose CCS project last year.

The project will enable the company to inject about 53 metric tons of industrial customers’ carbon emissions into three underground wells it drilled in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. Over a 13-year period, ExxonMobil plans to inject about 4 million metric tons per year into the Fleming and Upper Frio rock formations, according to Carbon Herald.

ExxonMobil says it owns the world’s first and largest CCS system, comprising 1,300 miles of CO2 pipeline and secure storage sites. Seventy percent of the pipelines are along the Gulf Coast.

The company ramped up its CCS business in 2023 with the $4.9 billion purchase of Denbury, which owned about 1,000 miles of CO2 pipelines.

“Our expertise, combined with Denbury’s talent and CO2 pipeline network, expands our low-carbon leadership and best positions us to meet the decarbonization needs of industrial customers while also reducing emissions in our own operations,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said when the deal closed.

In January, Genetti wrote in a post on ExxonMobil’s website that the company is committed to CCS “for the long haul.”

“CCS is not new technology, but it’s flown relatively under the radar compared with the attention that production of hydrocarbons commands,” he wrote. “Now, as the world becomes more aware of the need to reduce emissions, CCS finally has a brighter spotlight and a broader runway to scale up.”

The company also announced this week that it has begun CCS operations at a direct reduced iron facility in Convent, Louisiana. The project will capture, transport and store up to 800,000 metric tons of CO2 per year, according to the company.

Houston’s power future: The role of energy efficiency and demand response

The View from HETI

In Houston, industrial expansion, advanced manufacturing, data centers, AI, electrification, and population growth are all increasing demand for power across the region. At the same time, the infrastructure needed to support that growth, from generation and transmission to distribution and storage, takes significant time and investment to plan and build.

This growing power demand creates a near-term challenge: how can the region support new investment while major grid projects are planned and built?

A new report from the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, “Role of Efficiency & Demand Response to Meet Near-Term Regional Power Demand”, examines how Houston can get more from the grid it has today. Its central finding: energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DE) can create measurable grid “headroom” while new major infrastructure projects are being planned, financed, permitted and built.

Explore the key takeaways from the report:

Houston’s power challenge affects economic growth

Houston’s ability to attract industrial investment increasingly depends on reliable, affordable power. ERCOT and MISO Texas project major load growth through 2030 and 2035 from industrial development, data centers, AI, advanced manufacturing and electrification.

Efficiency and demand response can lower peak demand and help manage local grid constraints that could slow growth.

EE and DE are different tools, and Houston needs both

Energy efficiency creates lasting reductions in electricity use through equipment upgrades, building improvements and changes in operations. Demand response lets customers temporarily reduce or shift power use based on grid conditions, incentives or market signals.

Texas programs show measurable results

In 2024, Texas investor-owned utility programs delivered about 609 MW of evaluated demand reduction and 603 GWh of annual energy savings. The report puts the lifetime cost of saved energy at about $0.02 per kWh.
CenterPoint Energy accounted for more than 40% of ERCOT investor-owned utilities’ total demand reduction and energy savings. It achieved about 236 MW of peak demand reduction and 229 GWh of energy savings, above goals of 66 MW and 116 GWh.

Entergy Texas also achieved significantly more demand reduction and energy savings than its 2024 program year goals, with a reported 24 MW of peak demand reduction against a goal of 17 MW and 43 GWh of energy savings against a goal of 30 GWh.

Large power users can add flexibility

Data centers, industrial facilities and advanced manufacturers may be able to shift noncritical work, adjust cooling, use on-site resources or briefly cut consumption.

The report states that verified demand savings, flexible loads and behind-the-meter resilience could help reduce interconnection risk and support more cost-effective growth.

Technology can expand options

Storage, smart controls and energy management systems can work with efficiency and demand response. Smaller loads can also be combined across commercial buildings, multifamily developments and homes.

For Houston, these tools do not replace new generation, transmission, distribution or storage. They can help the region use existing infrastructure more effectively while new capacity is built, supporting reliable, affordable power and continued economic growth.

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This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog . HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, visit htxenergytransition.org. Download your copy of Role of Efficiency & Demand Response to Meet Near-Term Regional Power Demand to learn more.

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