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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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Houston company lands first deal from new Blackstone energy transition fund

M&A activity

Asset manager Blackstone has agreed to buy Houston-based Dresser Utility Solutions from Connecticut private equity firm First Reserve for an undisclosed amount. First Reserve has a major presence in Houston.

The deal represents the first investment from Blackstone Energy Transition Partners V.

“Blackstone’s deep resources and experience in the utility sector make them an ideal partner as we continue to invest in innovation, expand our product portfolio, and deliver value for our customers,” Dresser CEO David Evans said in a news release.

Founded in 1880, Dresser provides metering technology, digital instrumentation and software, pressure and flow controls, and infrastructure repair products for gas and water utilities and industrial customers. The company employs about 850 people worldwide.

“As demands on the energy grid continue to grow, Dresser plays a critical role as a trusted partner to utilities managing essential infrastructure. The company’s products are foundational to the safe and reliable operation of gas and water networks, and its reputation for quality has helped build longstanding customer relationships,” David Foley, global head of Blackstone Energy Transition Partners, and JP Munfa, senior managing director, said in the release.

Blackstone Energy Transition Partners has invested more than $28 billion across the energy transition sector. New York-based Blackstone closed Blackstone Energy Transition Partners Fund IV at $5.6 billion in February 2025. Blackstone Energy Transition Partners Fund III closed in 2020 for $4.4 million, according to Pitchbook.

Other notable energy transition investments from Blackstone funds include Salt Lake City-based Energy Exemplar, French electronics manufacturing company Sediver, Plano-based Westwood Professional Services and others.

Two years ago, Dresser secured a $335 million credit facility from funds managed by asset manager Blue Owl Capital. At the time, Dresser said the money would go toward capital expenses, acquisitions and corporate needs.

This is the second notable investment Blackstone has made in a Houston-based energy company in recent months. In May, Blackstone and energy heavyweight Halliburton made a $1 billion equity investment in Houston power generation startup VoltaGrid, which provides behind-the-meter mobile power generation equipment for data centers, microgrids and industrial customers.

5 Houston energy transition news headlines to know for July 2026

Hot Topics

Editor's note: Early July has brought exciting developments in the energy transition sector. Here are the five most-read news stories published on EnergyCapitalHTX from July 1-15, 2026, from KBR's Singapore agreement to Yara's Texas City investment.

1. Houston startup secures $5M to turn oilfield wastewater into critical minerals

Altililion

Houston-based startup Altillion has secured $5 million in seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its proprietary IRIS and ALIX technologies, which convert oilfield-produced water into valuable minerals. Altillion says the funding will go toward pilot facilities and commercial deployments as the company looks to scale in the U.S. Continue reading.

2. Houston's KBR to provide tech for Singapore SAF plant

Houston engineering and technology contractor KBR has been picked as the technology provider for what’s expected to be Asia's first commercial-scale ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant. KBR will provide technology licensing and Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) services based on its PureSAF technology. Continue reading.

3. Texas City ammonia plant acquired by Yara in $1.3 billion deal

Yara North America, a subsidiary of Norwegian fertilizer and ammonia producer Yara International, has agreed to buy an ammonia production plant in Texas City for $1.3 billion. The seller is GCA Holdings, an affiliate of Texas City-based chemical manufacturer Gulf Coast Ammonia, which is owned by private equity firms Lotus Infrastructure Partners and MB Energy. Continue reading.

4. 13 Houston energy sector companies make U.S. News' best places to work

A new U.S. News & World Report ranking of the best employers has named two dozen Houston-based companies among the best companies to work in the South, and more than half are part of the region's booming energy sector. Continue reading.

5. Houston energy startup launches to power AI data centers with Microsoft agreement

Buoyed by a purchase agreement from Microsoft, Houston-based Joulent recently launched to build power plants that meet the electricity demands of AI data centers and other computing-heavy industries. Continue reading.

Houston cleantech startup closes $17M round to tap into hot geothermal sector

fresh funding

Houston-area startup Hephae Energy Technology Corp. has closed a $17.8 million Series A financing round to commercialize its geothermal technology.

The round was co-led by Pennsylvania-based Susquehanna Sustainable Investments, which invests in early-stage climatech companies, and Copenhagen-based Underground Ventures, which focuses on geothermal energy startups. Alfa8, Baruch Future Ventures, Centaurus Capital LP, Elemental Impact, Exa Ventures, Future Ventures, Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, New System Ventures and True North Institute joined the round, along with existing Houston-based investor Nabors Industries. Hyphae reports in a news release that the Series A round brings the company's total capital raised to $24.7 million.

Hephae develops ultra-high-temperature downhole sensing, measurement, communications and control systems that can withstand the heat of geothermal sites, which are hotter and deeper than traditional oil and gas reservoirs. The company's Pandora210 system can operate at up to 400 degrees Fahrenheit.

Hephae reports that it plans to use the new funding to commercialize its Pandora210 tool and to launch research and development into systems that can withstand temperatures of up to 570 degrees Fahrenheit. Houston-based Fervo Energy, for instance, recently tapped its hottest geothermal well to date in western Utah, showing temperatures above 555 degrees Fahrenheit.

"Commercial deployment represents a major milestone in our mission to scalable, always-on, emission-free power globally, with a world-class team to tackle this problem," Steve Krase, CEO of Hephae Energy Technology, said in the release." This investment enables Hephae to transition from development to scale, delivering the ultra-high temperature drilling technologies needed to support the rapid growth of the geothermal industry in the US and international markets."

Hephae has been collaborating with Fervo Energy in the field. The company told the Houston Business JournalHouston Business Journal this spring that it expected its Pandora210 technology to be deployed at its Utah sites.

“Fervo is encouraged by the early progress of our collaboration with Hephae, whose novel high-temperature innovations have the potential to contribute positively to EGS economics, unlock higher-energy geothermal resources, and further cement the competitiveness of next-generation geothermal power," Elliot Howard, director of drilling and completions at Fervo, added in the release.

As the geothermal industry continues to scale, Hephae says it aims for its technology to help companies "unlock hotter, deeper resources that result in lower produced energy costs."

The Spring-based startup was founded in 2020 by CEO Steve Krase and CTO John Clegg. Krase previously launched Navigate Energy Services, which was acquired by Nabors in 2013. Clegg is also an industry veteran and has held numerous leadership positions at energy companies, including Weatherford, NOV, Schlumberger and others.

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