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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
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Clean energy leaders taking the stage at Houston Energy and Climate Week

expert voices

Some of the biggest names in the clean energy scene will be sharing their expertise in Houston this week.

From leaders fresh off one of the industry's biggest IPOs to local organizers, here's who's speaking at promising panels and anchor events during Houston Energy and Climate Week—taking place now through Sept. 18. Visit each event's website for a full lineup.

Read more about Houston Energy and Climate Week and its programming in Energy Capital's event preview. Or learn more about the startups pitching at events throughout the week here.

Energy Solutions in a New Era Hosted by JERA & Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — Sept. 15 at the Ion

  • Mary Dhillon, strategy manager at Fervo Energy
  • Ricky Sakai, SVP of investment & business development at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America
  • Daniel Padilla, strategy & business development lead at Emerald AI
  • Adrian Trömel, chief innovation officer / interim vice president for innovation at Rice University (moderator)
  • Shigeki Uchihashi, VP of strategy & corporate venturing at JERA Americas

Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase — Sept. 15 at POST Houston

  • Nada Ahmed, co-founder and CRO of Energytech Cypher
  • Taylor Chapman, investment principal at New Climate Ventures
  • Jason Ethier, co-founder and CEO of Energytech Cypher
  • Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon
  • Ionel Nechiti, investment director for Aramco Ventures
  • Hema Prapoo, global energy industry leader from Microsoft
  • Ishan Rao, VP of commercial at Syzygy Plasmonics

Greentown Climatetech Summit — Sept. 16 at Greentown Labs

  • Arne Ballantine, co-founder of Ohmium International
  • David Baldwin, partner at SCF Partners
  • Christopher Hanson, former chair of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
  • Tim Latimer, CEO and co-founder of Fervo Energy
  • Georgina Campbell Flatter, CEO of Greentown Labs
  • Nicolaus Radford, CEO and co-founder of Persona AI
  • Prag Mishra, chief AI officer at Armada
  • Jeremy Pitts, managing director at Activate
  • Bobby Gallagher, CEO, CTO and co-founder of Deployable Energy
  • Jason Wells, chair, president and CEO of CenterPoint Energy
  • Eliecer Viamontes, CEO of Entergy Texas

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum — Sept. 17 at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business

  • Laurent Alteirac, enabling technology development manager at SLB
  • Kemal Anbarci, managing executive and general manager of venture capital at Chevron Technology Ventures
  • Sameer Bandhu, managing director of ventures and licensing at GE Vernova
  • Brad Burke, former associate vice president at Rice Office of Innovation and former executive director of Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship at Rice University (moderator)
  • Andres Cabada, managing director at Halliburton Labs
  • Quennie Co, managing partner at Shell Ventures
  • Rob Crane, technology scouting & venturing manager at ExxonMobil
  • Ira Ehrenpreis, founder and managing partner at DBL Partners
  • Menachem Elimelech, director of Rice Center for Membrane Excellence (RiCeME) at Rice University
  • Brian Iversen, founder & managing partner at Cimbria Capital
  • Dustin Kinder, CEO of Maverick Water Group
  • Megan Lund, lead of venturing strategy & strategic partnerships at Woodside Energy
  • Sean Maher, vice president of investor relations & chief economist at Phillips 66
  • Robert Mellors, SUPERHOT program director at ARPA-E
  • John (JR) Reale, interim associate vice president for industry and new ventures at Rice University and executive director of Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship at Rice University
  • Chad Seely, SVP of regulatory policy, general counsel, chief compliance officer, and corporate secretary at ERCOT
  • David Sholl, executive vice president for research and professor of chemical & biomolecular engineering at Rice University
  • Jim Sledzik, managing director of strategic venturing, North America, at Aramco Ventures

New 160MW battery storage project comes online in Houston

powered on

Colorado-based energy storage company SMT Energy and North Carolina-based software company FlexGen have begun operations of Houston IV, a 160-megawatt utility-scale battery storage facility that aims to support the ERCOT grid.

The companies delivered the project in just six weeks, according to a news release. Mississippi-based Irby Construction Company served as the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) partner, and CenterPoint Energy will serve as the interconnecting utility.

“FlexGen’s distinctive combination of software automation, our remote operations center, and on-the-ground field expertise all work together to accelerate battery deployment,” Jason Rislov, SVP of operations at FlexGen, said in the release. “What used to take 25-plus weeks took us six. That time saved translates directly into giving the grid and consumers what they need most right now: a more reliable, resilient energy system.”

Houston IV is one of more than 12 projects that SMT and FlexGen have built to connect to ERCOT, according to Energy Storage News.

“Bringing a 160-MW battery storage facility online in just six weeks required disciplined planning, seamless coordination, and an unwavering focus on safety and quality,” Shaun Coleman, project manager at Irby Construction, said in a news release. “The SMT Energy, FlexGen, and Irby Construction teams coordinated engineering, procurement, and construction to keep every workstream aligned, identify challenges early, and maintain safety and quality at an accelerated pace. That integration is critical, not only to delivering projects quickly, but also to ensuring battery storage facilities perform reliably over the long term.”

Houston IV is expected to store and provide enough electricity to power 8,800 homes in Texas annually. In March, SMT Energy secured $135 million in funding for the project from Macquarie and KeyBanc Capital Markets as joint lead arrangers. SMT and FlexGen broke ground to signal the start of the process in May.

In 2023, SMT Energy and joint venture partner SUSI Partners also announced plans to add 10 battery storage projects to Texas, which would double capacity from 100 megawatts to 200 megawatts in the Houston and Dallas areas.

Meet the 80+ startups pitching at Houston Energy and Climate Week

Pitch Lineup

One of the highlights from Houston Energy and Climate Week is hearing directly from the up-and-coming founders working to reshape the energy landscape.

This year, dozens of startups from Brazil to Berkeley and from right here in the Bayou City will compete for cash prizes and bragging rights while showcasing their concepts at HECW pitch events. Here's who's pitching at some of the week's signature competitions. Check back after the week wraps to see who takes home the top prizes.

Cypher Pilotathon and Startup Showcase — Sept. 15 at POST Houston

At the Cypher Pilotathon, founders will give their best 7-minute pilot pitches to industry experts and a live audience, followed by Q&A. This year's event will center around the theme, "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution." Here's who's pitching:

  • Houston-based Aeromine Technologies, a distributed wind turbine company
  • San Francisco-based Ammobia, which develops low-carbon, energy source-agnostic ammonia
  • Birmingham, Alabama-based Ashipa Electric, a renewable energy semiconductor and microgrid manufacturer
  • Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects
  • Houston-based Corrolytics, which has developed corrosion detection technology
  • São Paulo, Brazil-based GLR Tech, which has developed a compact, scalable, low-cost platform for industrial emissions control
  • Monreal-based Green Graphite Technologies, which produces battery-grade graphite in a cost-effective and sustainable manner
  • Boston-based KIRA, which converts industrial wastewater into ultrapure water and solids
  • Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry
  • Los Angeles-based Mote, which works to convert agricultural and forestry waste into clean energy
  • Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels
  • Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer
  • Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen
  • Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure
  • Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates

Twenty-two other startups will participate in the startup showcase. See the full list here.

Greentown Climatetech Summit — Sept. 16 at the Continental Club

Ten Greentown startups will compete for $25,000 in prizes at Greentown Climatetech Summit's signature pitch event. Judges include Dave Dreessen, of Chevron Technology Ventures’ Future Energy Fund, and Jon Greene, of New Climate Ventures. Here's who's pitching:

  • Houston-based AMPeers, which manufactures high-temperature superconducting wire for high-power electrification infrastructure
  • Detroit-based AmHyTech, which enables ambient-condition liquid ammonia handling for fertilizer and fuel applications
  • Houston- and Zurich-based Biosimo, which converts biomass-based ethanol into lower-carbon acetic acid and acetyls
  • Houston-based Capwell Services Inc., which captures methane from low-flow oil and gas vents and returns it to market
  • Cleveland- and Ghana-based Cocoa Potash, which extracts potassium carbonate and fertilizer from cocoa, coconut, and palm-nut waste
  • Houston-based Solidec, which electrolyzes air, water, and electricity into onsite hydrogen peroxide.
  • Houston-based Focis AI, which converts industrial laser scans into a queryable digital twin of refineries and plants
  • Calgary-based Kanin Energy, which develops and finances waste heat to power projects for industrial clients
  • San Francisco-based FelixFusion, which models grid connection points so developers can validate interconnection in minutes
  • Houston-based Pike Robotics, which deploys its Wall-Eye robot to inspect hazardous tanks without taking assets offline

TEX-E Student Innovators will also pitch earlier in the day-long event, and an additional five Greentown startups will compete for $1,000 during the Lightning Pitch Competition. Find more information here.

Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum — Sept. 17 at Rice University’s Jones Graduate School of Business

Houston-based companies Aquanta Vision, Capwell Services and Deep Anchor Solutions will be joined by startups from around the world to compete to be named one of the 10 Most Promising Companies at the 23rd Energy Tech Venture Forum. Additional companies will participate in office hours.

See the full list of nearly 50 companies pitching here.

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day — Sept. 18 at the Ion

Halliburton Labs Pitch Day brings together a curated group of early‑stage energy technology investors and 16 participating companies. The event is invitation‑only. Here's who's pitching:

  • Australia-based Aquafortus, which has developed a non-thermal liquid to liquid desalination technology for resource recovery from wastewater brine
  • Calgary-based Ayrton Energy, which has developed a proprietary technology that enables hydrogen to be stored within an organic liquid, which can be handled and transported like gasoline
  • Illinois-based Cache Energy, which is developing electrified heat and long-term energy storage
  • New York-based Cella, which is working to advance subsurface mineralization of CO2
  • Miami-based Chemergy, which has developed a patented process to convert wet organic and plastic wastes into green hydrogen
  • Tennessee-based Enexor BioEnergy, which is developing on-site waste-to-bioenergy conversion systems
  • Reno-based Espiku, which focuses on water and minerals recovery from industrially produced water
  • UK-based LiNa Energy, which is developing low-cost, solid-state sodium battery technology
  • Michigan-based Marel Power Solutions, which is developing advanced cooling technology to redefine power-stacks
  • California-based Mitico, which is developing technology to collect and purify carbon dioxide at the source, post-combustion, before it enters the atmosphere
  • Singapore-based Nandina REM, which turns end-of-life assets into new, reliable, high-performance carbon fiber materials for the aviation, aerospace and defense industries
  • California-based Noon Energy, which is developing a 100-plus-hour ultra-long-duration battery storage
  • Silicon Valley-based Proof Energy, which is commercializing next-generation metallic solid oxide fuel cell (M-SOFC) technology.
  • Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates
  • Singapore-based Sungreen, an advanced materials company pioneering nanotechnology-based coatings for high-efficiency, low-cost electrodes
  • Minneapolis-based Syncris, which is developing next-generation modular power systems designed for the most demanding environments
Read more about Houston Energy and Climate Week and its programming in Energy Capital's event preview.
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