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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
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CenterPoint gets $50M DOE grant to improve Houston power grid

grid grant

A $50 million federal grant will help Houston-based CenterPoint Energy strengthen Houston’s power grid.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) grant will support power substation upgrades in the Houston area.

“Our mission is to build the most resilient coastal grid in the nation for the 2.9 million customers we proudly serve in the greater Houston area … [The grant] will directly fund industry-leading technology improvements that are expected to strengthen resiliency, reliability, and meet the growing energy needs of our region,” Jason Ryan, CenterPoint Energy’s executive vice president for regulatory services and government affairs, said in a release.

CenterPoint says the project will make it one of the first U.S. utilities to install Siemens Energy’s grid-stabilizing technology.

The project will create more than 500 construction and installation jobs, CenterPoint says.

“Generations of CenterPoint customers and families in the region will benefit from the advanced technology this grant is funding,” said Kathleen Jackson, a member of the Public Utility Commission of Texas. “And any time companies make improvements like this to their systems, the long-term impact is making the entire grid stronger for Texans.”

The $176.7 million substation project is part of CenterPoint’s Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative, which launched in 2024.

So far, the initiative has:

  • Installed nearly 82,400 storm-resilient poles and equipment
  • Trimmed and cleared more than 13,700 miles of trees and vegetation near power lines
  • Added nearly 820 grid automation and intelligence devices
  • Put more than 880 miles of power lines underground

The initiative kicked off three years after Winter Storm Uri. CenterPoint received harsh criticism for what customers complained was the utility’s slow response to the 2021 storm. Uri caused a massive power outage and at least 246 deaths across Texas.

CenterPoint blamed the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the power grid for most Texans, for not supplying the utility with enough electricity during and after the storm.

EnergyTech Cypher names 7 startup winners from Pilotathon pitch event

startup spotlight

Houston Energy and Climate Week was full of fast-paced pitches and inspiring technology, showcased during some of the week's signature events.

EnergyTech Cypher's annual Piloathon and Startup Showcase was one of the places to be, bringing together 16 pilot-ready startups to present their best seven-minute pitches before investors, plus 52 companies that demonstrated their technologies on the showcase floor.

"This year's cohort raised the bar," Nada Ahmed, co-founder of EnergyTech Cypher, shared in a news release. "Working with these founders through the pitch preparation process, we saw firsthand the depth of technology and commercial readiness they brought to the stage. Three ties in four categories says it all."

Seven startups took home top honors in various categories, all under this year's theme of "The NEW Energy Industrial Revolution," with three categories ending in a tie. Judges included leaders from Baker Tilly, NRG Energy, Shell, Aramco Ventures, Baker Hughes, Avatar Innovations, Kanin Energy, NoviDigiTech, aiCTO Services, and the FIFA World Cup Houston Committee.

Here's who won in their respective categories:

Future of Industrial Work: Houston-based BigMachine AI, an AI engineer for industrial projects, and Oslo, Norway-based OTee, an automation machinery manufacturer. Otee was also named one of the 10 most-promising startups at the Rice Alliance Energy Tech Venture Forum during HECW.

Industrial Decarbonization: Berkeley-based Oleo, which is developing a biomanufacturing platform to transform biomass waste into carbon-negative, cost-competitive oil feedstocks for advanced fuels

Grid Infrastructure and Distributed Energy: Edinburgh-based Mocean Energy, which works to deliver renewable ocean energy to power offshore industry, and Tulsa-based RyuGen Energy Solutions Inc., which works to turn underused commercial power into distributed AI infrastructure

Critical Minerals and Resource Security: Houston-based Resollant, which is working to produce battery-grade graphite and ultra-low-cost hydrogen, and Berkeley-based Sunchem, which provides precision separation of critical metals from sources including e-waste, evaporator scrap, solar panels, and mining ores and concentrates.

Last year, the Pilotathon named eight winners from the competition, which focused on the theme of "Energy Access and Resilience." See the winners here.

EnergyTech Cypher rebranded from EnergyTech Nexus earlier this year. The energy transition hub also launched Cephyron, EnergyTech Cypher's new investor relationship management platform, built specifically for energy and climatech founders.

ENGIE inks deal to supply wind energy for Oracle’s Texas operations

wind deal

Houston-based renewable energy company ENGIE North America has made a deal to supply up to 568 megawatts of renewable electricity for tech giant Oracle's projects in Texas.

The power will come from ENGIE’s wind resources serving the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. Oracle is developing data centers in Abilene and Shackelford, Texas, according to its website.

The Oracle deal is part of ENGIE’s efforts to bring substantial new electricity supply to the grid. In the past six years, ENGIE has developed 12 gigawatts of new renewable generation and battery storage capacity in North Americas, equaling $11 billion in capital, according to the company.

"Our customers are looking for reliable, scalable energy solutions that can support long-term growth," Anne-Laure Chassanite, interim CEO of ENGIE North America, said in a news release. "ENGIE has invested heavily in developing new generation resources across North America, and we're pleased to support Oracle as it continues to expand its operations in Texas. These agreements reflect the strength of our portfolio and our ability to deliver customized energy solutions that help customers meet their business objectives.”

Computer technology and cloud computing company Oracle is working towards its goal to match 100 percent of AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035.

"Oracle is taking a responsible approach to meeting the energy needs of our growing AI and cloud operations in Texas — investing in carbon-free electricity without shifting costs to consumers," Julia Robin, head of infrastructure planning and sourcing for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, added in the release. "Our agreements with ENGIE advance Oracle's goal to match 100 percent of our AI data center electricity use with carbon-free electricity by 2035, while supporting long-term economic growth with no cost impact to the state of Texas.”

ENGIE also recently won the 2026 Green Power Leadership Award in the Market Innovation category for its work advancing 24/7 renewable energy solutions. The awards honor individuals and companies advancing sustainability and renewables in the energy industry through innovation and leadership.

The company has inked major deals to supply renewable energy to other major companies like Meta, Daikin and others.

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