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Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”
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Sage Geosystems brings South Texas geothermal plant online

powering up

Houston-based Sage Geosystems, a provider of geothermal power, has begun full operations at its South Texas facility for the San Miguel Electric Cooperative.

Sage says the plant was recently “placed in service,” according to a news release. This means it’s fully built and tested, and ready to generate and supply electricity to the grid.

Since selling its first electricity in Q2 of this year, the facility has been operating for more than four months to evaluate aspects like efficiency and water management. Sage relied on its GeoTwin modeling tool to carry out some of the testing.

The testing demonstrates Sage’s proprietary approach to geothermal power “overcomes one of the industry’s most persistent challenges, high water losses in engineered reservoirs, while delivering the consistent performance required to scale next-generation geothermal,” co-founder and CEO Cindy Taff said in the release.

Sage says the South Texas facility will serve as a model for future projects, including one in Nevada. The Nevada facility will use Sage’s proprietary technology to extract geothermal heat from hot dry rock, creating a reliable, affordable source of carbon-free power.

During the testing period, water losses amounted to less than 10 percent. This low rate indicates most water remains in the system, enabling Sage to capture more usable energy, boost power production and improve the project’s finances, the company says.

“Commercial geothermal isn’t just about creating a reservoir. It’s about creating one whose performance can be engineered, predicted, and consistent,” Lev Ring, the company’s co-founder, president and chief technology officer, said in the release.

Since being founded in 2020, Sage has raised $159 million in outside funding. This includes a more than $97 million Series B round co-led by Ormat Technologies and Carbon Direct Capital.

Two years ago, Sage announced a deal with Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to supply up to 150 megawatts of geothermal power to Meta data centers.

Halliburton Labs adds 3 energy, materials startups to Houston incubator

green team

Three new companies have joined Halliburton Labs, the incubator for early-stage energy and hardtech startups run by Houston energy giant Halliburton.

Halliburton Labs provides the emerging companies with mentorship, industry connections, laboratory access and other resources as they work toward commercialization. The latest companies to join the incubator focus on battery materials, resource recovery and gas separation solutions to address some of the "key bottlenecks in the energy and industrial landscape," according to a news release.

The new members include:

  • Electroflow, a California-based company that produces lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material from lithium brines through its proprietary process. LFPs are critical components in batteries used in electric vehicles, grid storage systems and industrial electrification, according to Halliburton Labs.
  • Osmoses, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company that has developed a membrane platform to reduce the energy use, cost and emissions associated with gas separations used in natural gas, hydrogen, helium and other industrial applications
  • SiTration Inc., another Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company that has developed electro-extraction and filtration technologies to recover critical metals like copper directly from mining waste streams more quickly and affordably. Its process has completed successful pilot projects with Tier 1 mining companies in three continents.

"Affordable and reliable molecules are essential building blocks of the energy future. Each company brings a bold, technical solution to a complex industrial challenge. We look forward to helping them scale and deploy their technologies," Andres Cabada, Halliburton Labs managing director, added in the news release.

Halliburton Labs previously added four new members from around the world —Nandina REM, Noon Energy, Proof Energy and Tidal Metals—this spring. Alumni from the incubator include Houston-based companies like NanoTech Materials, which is developing insulation and fireproofing to reduce heat transfer in buildings and outdoor infrastructure; and SolvCor, which develops water additives to improve cooling for data centers and thermal storage.

With the addition of the three new members, the incubator currently supports nine early-stage companies.

Houston companies advance 200MW green ammonia plant in South Texas

coming soon

Two global companies with a major presence in Houston are teaming up on a green ammonia plant in Port of Victoria, Texas.

Topsoe, a Danish company with operations in Houston and Bayport, Texas, has been tapped to provide ammonia synthesis technology for the project being developed by First Ammonia, a New York-based company with offices in Houston and Denmark.

The flagship 200-megawatt plant will use renewable electricity to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis, which will then be combined with nitrogen from a nearby Air Liquide pipeline to make green ammonia, according to First Ammonia. It is expected to serve both U.S. and global markets.

According to First Ammonia, every 100,000 tons of electric ammonia produced avoids approximately 240,000 tons of CO2 emissions compared to fossil ammonia

The Topsoe technology used on site is designed to be able to increase production from 10 percent to 100 percent within 30 minutes, and decrease production at a similar rate, allowing the plant to respond to fluctuations from solar- or wind-based energy sources.

“Topsoe is the world leader in ammonia synthesis, and First Ammonia is delighted to continue our partnership with them in establishing a green ammonia industry in the US and around the world,” Joel Moser, CEO of First Ammonia, said in a news release.

Topsoe has previously signed on to supply its 100-megawatt solid oxide electrolyser (SOEC) to the First Ammonia project. However, the company announced in March that it did not extend the contract after multiple delays.

The First Ammonia project was originally expected to come online by 2027 and to produce 1.1 million tonnes of green ammonia. The project is now expected to reach financial before the end of 2026, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and commercial operations launching by 2029.

“As green ammonia projects move from ambition to execution, operational flexibility becomes increasingly important,” Yassir Ghiyati, chief commercial officer at Topsoe, added in a news release. “We’re proud to support First Ammonia with technology designed to enable efficient and reliable green ammonia production. We look forward to continuing to work with the First Ammonia team to help bring this important U.S project to life.”

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