Texas solar set to overtake coal for first time in 2026, EIA forecasts

solar on the rise

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid. Photo via Pexels

Solar power promises to shine even brighter in Texas this year.

A new forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that for the first time, annual power generation from utility-scale solar will surpass annual power generation from coal across the territory covered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Solar generation is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026 in the ERCOT grid, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours for coal, the EIA forecast says. The ERCOT grid supplies power to about 90 percent of Texas, including the Houston area.

“Utility-scale solar generation has been increasing steadily in ERCOT as solar capacity additions help meet rapid electricity demand growth,” the forecast says.

Although natural gas remains the dominant source of electricity generation in ERCOT, accounting for an average 44 percent of electricity generation from 2021 to 2025, solar’s share of the generation mix rose from four percent to 12 percent. During the same period, coal’s share dropped from 19 percent to 13 percent.

EIA predicts about 40 percent of U.S. solar capacity, or 14 billion kilowatt-hours, added in 2026 will come from Texas.

Although EIA expects annual solar generation to exceed annual coal generation in 2026, solar surpassed coal in ERCOT on a monthly basis for the first time in March 2025, when solar generation totaled 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal’s totaled 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours. Solar generation continued to exceed that of coal until August of that year.

“In 2026, we estimate that solar exceeded coal for the first time in March, and we forecast generation from solar installations in ERCOT will continue to exceed that from coal until December, when coal generation exceeds solar,” says EIA. “We expect solar generation to exceed that of coal for every month in 2027 except January and December.”

For 2027, EIA forecasts annual solar generation of 99 billion kilowatt-hours in the ERCOT grid, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours of annual coal generation.

In April, ERCOT projected almost 368 billion kilowatt-hours of demand in ERCOT’s territory by 2032. ERCOT’s all-time peak demand hit 85.5 billion kilowatt-hours in August 2023.

“Texas is experiencing exceptional growth and development, which is reshaping how large load demand is identified, verified, and incorporated into long-term planning,” ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said. “As a result of a changing landscape, we believe this forecast to be higher than expected … load growth.”

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A new report predicts solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump by 89 percent by the end of 2027. Photo by Red Zeppelin/Pexels

ERCOT to capture big share of U.S. solar power growth through 2027

solar growth

Much of the country’s growth in utility-scale solar power generation will happen in the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), according to a new forecast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that solar power supplied to the ERCOT grid will jump from 56 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 106 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of 2027. That would be an increase of 89 percent.

In tandem with the rapid embrace of solar power, EIA anticipates battery storage capacity for ERCOT will expand from 15 gigawatts in 2025 to 37 gigawatts by the end of 2027, or 147 percent.

EIA expects utility-scale solar to be the country’s fastest-growing source of power generation from 2025 to 2027. It anticipates that this source will climb from 290 billion kilowatt-hours last year to 424 billion kilowatt-hours next year, or 46 percent.

Based on EIA’s projections, ERCOT’s territory would account for one-fourth of the country’s utility-scale solar power generation by the end of next year.

“Solar power and energy storage are the fastest-growing grid technologies in Texas, and can be deployed more quickly than any other generation resource,” according to the Texas Solar + Storage Association. “In the wholesale market, solar and storage are increasing grid reliability, delivering consumer affordability, and driving tax revenue and income streams into rural Texas.”

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Cemvita reaches breakthrough in sustainable fuel feedstock production

clean fuels

Houston-based biotech company Cemvita announced that it recently reached a critical milestone in the development of its FermOil product, which can be used to create Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and other renewable fuels at industrial scale.

The company shared in a news release that it completed a 75,000-liter industrial fermentation run at Belgium's Bio Base Europe Pilot Plant.

The campaign achieved target technical metrics for the production of FermOil, Cemvita’s renewable natural oil (RNO). FermOil is produced from industrial crude glycerin, an industrial byproduct, as opposed to traditional sugar-based feedstocks used in many bio-oil fermentation processes. It's designed to be a drop-in feedstock for creating SAFs.

Cemvita had previously advanced its FermOil production process through multiple scale-up stages before successfully reaching the 75,000-liter demonstration campaign, according to the company.

“This is not just a fermentation milestone,” Moji Karimi, CEO at Cemvita, said in the release. “It is a blueprint for how existing industrial infrastructure can evolve into circular bioeconomy infrastructure. Every biodiesel plant generating crude glycerin is a potential platform for renewable natural oil production.”

The milestone also supports the deployment of Cemvita’s industrial biomanufacturing platform, FermWorks, which integrates with existing energy and industrial infrastructure to turn waste carbon streams into SAFs and other materials. According to the release, Cemvita plans to move forward with commercial deployment discussions with partners in Brazil, Europe and in the UK. Cemvita already has a partnership with the Brazilian sustainable research institution REMA.

“We are proud to support innovative companies like Cemvita in scaling breakthrough industrial biotechnology solutions,” Hendrik Waegeman, head of business operations at Bio Base Europe Pilot Plant, added in the release. “Successfully operating at the 75,000-liter scale using a feedstock such as crude glycerin highlights both the maturity of the technology and the quality of the scale-up execution achieved by the Cemvita team.”

6+ must-attend Houston energy transition events for June 2026

Mark Your Calendars

Editor's note: Summer is here, and June brings a slate of must-attend events for those in the energy transition sector. CLEANPOWER is already underway, and the month continues with EPC Show and InnovateEnergy Week. Mark your calendars and register now.

June 1-4, 2026 — CLEANPOWER 2026 Conference and Exhibition

CLEANPOWER unites policymakers, experts, and corporate leaders to solve the challenges that none can solve alone. This must-attend, four-day conference is packed with cutting-edge discussions about wind, solar, storage, and transmission; dealmaking; networking; and fun.

This event continues through June 4 at the George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 4, 2026 — Energy Capital Conference

Join 300+ investors, operators, and capital providers in Houston for high-impact conversations shaping the next phase of energy investment. Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference is designed for senior decision-makers to meet the capital partners behind today’s deals; see where capital is flowing; strengthen the relationships that move business forward; and get ahead of where investment is going next. A pre-conference half-day workshop, titled Institutional Investing in Energy Workshop, will take place June 3.

This event takes place June 4 at the Post Oak Hotel. Register here.

June 9 — Greentown Go Make Kickoff

Head to the Ion to celebrate the Greentown Go Make 2026 cohort. The open-innovation program with Shell Catalysts & Technologies and Technip Energies focuses on catalytic solutions for industrial decarbonization and the energy transition. Hear pitches from the founders and network with a select group of startups while enjoying food and drink.

This event takes place June 9 at the Ion. Register here.

June 11, 2026 — Goals & Gigawatts Kickoff Party

Head to downtown Houston for Goals & Gigawatts: The Power of & Kickoff Party. The exciting Houston Energy & Climate Week gathering will combine fútbol, culture, climate, energy, innovation, and community for one unforgettable afternoon. Celebrate the opening FIFA match in Mexico City while connecting with professionals, innovators, investors, community leaders, and organizations shaping the future of energy and climate initiatives in Houston and beyond.

This event takes place at 1:30 pm on June 11, and the location is provided after registering. Register here.

June 16-17, 2026 — Energy Projects Conference & Expo

The Energy Projects Conference & Expo (EPC Show) is the largest event in North America for professionals working at the heart of major energy projects. The essential event for engineering, construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance across multiple energy sectors brings together five leading conferences under one roof. Conference subjects span LNG exporting, hydrogen and ammonia, midstream, petrochem and refining, and sustainable aviation fuels.

This event begins June 16 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

June 22-24, 2026 — InnovateEnergy Week

InnovateEnergy Week 2026 brings together the Energy Drone & Robotics Summit, Industrial Digital Reality Summit, and Industrial AI Nexus Summit for three days of high-powered innovation in Houston. This highly anticipated event will unite 1,500+ industrial, energy, and engineering leaders to explore the future of autonomous operations, spatial computing, digital twins, XR, AI, geospatial intelligence, and remote systems from the stars to the seafloor.

This event begins June 22 at Woodlands Waterway Marriott. Register here.

New Texas water plan does not consider data center growth, critics say

For the Future

A draft of Texas’ 2027 State Water Plan is drawing concerns from some water protection advocates who say it fails to account for one growing industry: data centers.

The plan, created by the Texas Water Development Board, will guide tens of billions of dollars in water development projects over the coming decades.

On Memorial Day, people packed Lake Travis to enjoy the water and sunshine while the lake remains near full capacity. But some advocates warn drought conditions could quickly return.

“Once we get into August, September, we'll be probably right back in the same drought situation,” said Mike Clifford with the Greater Edwards Aquifer Alliance.

The Texas Water Development Board released the draft plan in April. It recommends thousands of water projects carrying a projected cost of $174 billion over 50 years.

“We're not as shocked about the dollar amounts as some people are,” Clifford said. "To secure our water future, that's not an insane amount to ask for."

However, Clifford said his organization was surprised the draft does not specifically account for the growing impact of data centers, which can consume large amounts of water.

“If you leave the data centers out, it's not really a plan in our opinion. It's going to have to be changed and it's going to fall short,” Clifford said.

According to Data Center Map, Texas is currently home to 461 data centers.

Clifford argues the state should use projected future growth, not just historical data, when planning for long-term water needs.

“They're looking at the previous 10 years or 20 years or whatever, and we didn't have a lot of data centers in Texas,” he said.

Researchers at the the University of Texas at Austin estimate data centers could account for as much as 9 percent of Texas’ total water use by 2040, or potentially surpass the oil and gas industry that same year.

Read the full story from CultureMap news partner KVUE.com.

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