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New report predicts major data center boom in Texas by 2028

data analysis

A new report predicts that Texas will be home to 30 percent of the U.S. data center market by 2028. Photo via Chevron.com

Data centers are proving to be a massive economic force in Texas.

For instance, a new report from clean energy company Bloom Energy predicts Texas will see a 142 percent increase in its market share for data centers from 2025 to 2028. That would be the highest increase of any state.

Bloom Energy expects Texas to exceed 40 gigawatts of data-center capacity by 2028, representing a nearly 30 percent share of the U.S. market. A typical AI data center consumes 1 to 2 gigawatts of energy.

“Data center and AI factory developers can’t afford delays,” Natalie Sunderland, Bloom Energy’s chief marketing officer, said in the report. “Our analysis and survey results show that they’re moving into power‑advantaged regions where capacity can be secured faster — and increasingly designing campuses to operate independently of the grid.”

“The surge in AI demand creates a clear opportunity for states that can adapt to support large-scale AI deployments at speed,” Sunderland adds.

Further evidence of the data center explosion in Texas comes from ConstructConnect, a provider of data and software for contractors and manufacturers. ConstructConnect reported that in the 12-month span through November 2025, data-center construction starts in Texas accounted for $11 billion in spending. At $12.5 billion, only Louisiana surpassed the Texas total.

Capital expenses for U.S. data centers were expected to surpass $425 billion last year, according to ratings agency S&P Global.

ConstructConnect also reports that Texas is among five states collectively grabbing 80 percent of potential data center construction starts. Currently, Texas hosts around 400 data centers, with close to 60 of them in the Houston market.

A large pool of data-center construction spending in Texas is flowing from Google, which announced in November that it would earmark $40 billion for new AI data centers in the state.

“Texas leads in AI and tech innovation,” Gov. Greg Abbott proclaimed when the Google investment was unveiled.

Other studies and reports lay out just how much data centers are influencing economic growth in the Lone Star State:

  • A study by Texas Royalty Brokers indicates Texas leads the U.S. with 17 clusters of AI data centers. The study measured the density of AI data centers by counting the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) installed in those clusters. GPUs are specialized chips built to run AI models and perform complex calculations.
  • Citing data from construction consulting company FMI, The Wall Street Journal reported that spending on construction of data centers is expected to rise 23 percent in 2026 compared with last year. Much of that construction spending will happen in Texas. In the 12 months through November 2025, the average data center cost $597 million, according to ConstructConnect.
  • Data published in 2025 by commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows three Texas markets — Austin, Dallas and San Antonio — boast the lowest construction costs for data centers among the 19 U.S. markets that were analyzed. The mid-range of costs in that trio of markets is roughly $10.65 million per megawatt. Houston isn’t included in the data.

Although Houston isn’t cited in the Cushman & Wakefield data, it nonetheless is playing a major role in the data-center boom. Houston-area energy giants Chevron and ExxonMobil are chasing opportunities to supply natural gas as a power source for data centers, for example.

“As Houston rapidly evolves into a hub for AI, cloud computing, and data infrastructure, the city is experiencing a surge in data-center investments driven by its unique position at the intersection of energy, technology, and innovation,” says the Greater Houston Partnership.
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Here's a look back at HETI's 2025 highlights. Photo courtesy of HETI

Houston Energy Transition Initiative releases 2025 year in review

The View From HETI

The Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) concludes another impactful year by reaffirming our commitment to positioning Houston as the global leader in the energy transition – delivering more energy with fewer emissions. HETI continues to be focused on advancing key regional priorities, driving economic development and talent recruitment.

It was a year of changes across the energy landscape, yet HETI continued to collaborate, convene, and deliver measurable progress. Below are some of the year’s key highlights:

Sharing Members’ Impact on Decarbonization and Emissions Reductions

HETI released a report detailing members’ low-carbon initiatives and commitments, showcasing industry momentum and long-term pathways to achieving the dual challenge of meeting growing global energy demand while reducing emissions. Major findings include more than $95 billion in low-carbon investments and 20% reduction in Scope 1 emissions since 2017 by HETI-affiliated companies. The report also recommends strategic pathways for continued emissions reductions.

Advancing CCUS at Commercial Scale

HETI publicly supported efforts to accelerate carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) efforts to commercial scale. Early in the year, HETI and the Houston CCS Alliance commissioned Texas A&M University’s Energy Institute and Mary Kay O’Connor Process Safety Center to research the operational history and safety record of CCUS in the United States. In November, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency granted Texas authority to permit CCUS—a significant win that increases the region’s competitiveness in the global energy ecosystem.

Leadership in Resilient Power for Houston’s Growth

In June, HETI hosted its first Resilient Power: Fueling Houston’s Growing Economy summit, bringing together more than 100 business and civic leaders to discuss the role of resilient, reliable power in Houston’s economic development. Cross-sector leaders explored the impacts of rising power demand driven by industrial decarbonization and digitalization, and discussed the essential collaboration between the energy and tech sectors to strengthen long-term resilience through an “all of the above” approach. HETI also published a fact sheet on Houston’s resilient power access, affordability, and reliability as a resource for partners.

Showcasing Houston’s Leadership at CERAWeek 2025

HETI participated in CERAWeek 2025, elevating Houston’s energy leadership on the world stage. The HETI House activation in the Innovation Agora attracted more than 1,000 visitors and generated over 80 economic development leads. In addition, HETI partnered with Rice Alliance and TEX-E for the fourth annual Energy Ventures Pitch Competition at CERAWeek, bringing together students, startups and energy leaders to advance innovation and investment.

Scaling Houston’s Innovation Ecosystem

As Houston’s energy innovation ecosystem continues to grow, HETI plays an important role in shaping its future. During its second year, Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week attracted more than 3,900 attendees from local and global startups, industry leaders, and investors—further solidifying Houston’s status as the world’s leading energy innovation hub.

Strengthening Regional Competitiveness

To advance technology commercialization and support the Gulf Coast’s continued energy competitiveness, HETI hosted its second annual Gulf Coast National Labs Workshop. This year’s event convened more than 120 leaders representing six national laboratories, industry partners, academia, and government stakeholders to accelerate collaboration around the region’s greatest energy and chemical challenges.

HETI’s progress this year is significant, but the work ahead is even more critical. As we move into the new year, HETI remains steadfast in its commitment to convening industry leaders, informing policy, supporting innovation, and driving economic growth across the region. This work strengthens Houston’s core energy economy and accelerates the emerging sectors that will ensure Houston continues to lead the world in energy.

———

This article originally appeared on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

This move could help the U.S. cut emissions while staying competitive in the global energy game. Image via Getty Images

What EPA’s carbon capture and storage permitting announcement means for Texas

The View From HETI

Earlier this month, Texas was granted authority by the federal government for permitting carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. This move could help the U.S. cut emissions while staying competitive in the global energy game.

In June, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed approving Texas’ request for permitting authority under the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) for Class VI underground injection wells for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the state under a process called “primacy.” The State of Texas already has permitting authority for other injection wells (Classes I-V). In November, the EPA announced final approval of Texas’ primacy request.

Why This Matters for Texas

Texas is the headquarters for virtually every segment of the energy industry. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Texas is the top crude oil- and natural-gas producing state in the nation. The state has more crude oil refineries and refining capacity than any other state in the nation. Texas produces more electricity than any other state, and the demand for electricity will grow with the development of data centers and artificial intelligence (AI). Simply put, Texas is the backbone of the nation’s energy security and competitiveness. For the nation’s economic competitiveness, it is important that Texas continue to produce more energy with less emissions. CCS is widely regarded as necessary to continue to lower the emissions intensity of the U.S. industrial sector for critical products including power generation, refining, chemicals, steel, cement and other products that our country and world demand.

The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) has supported efforts to bring CCUS to a broader commercial scale since the initiative’s inception.

“Texas is uniquely positioned to deploy CCUS at scale, with world-class geology, a skilled workforce, and strong infrastructure. We applaud the EPA for granting Texas the authority to permit wells for CCUS, which we believe will result in safe and efficient permitting while advancing technologies that strengthen Texas’ leadership in the global energy market,” said Jane Stricker, Executive Director of HETI and Senior Vice President, Energy Transition at the Greater Houston Partnership.

What is Primacy, and Why is it Important?

Primacy grants permitting authority for Class VI wells for CCS to the Texas Railroad Commission instead of the EPA. Texas is required to follow the same strict standards the EPA uses. The EPA has reviewed Texas’ application and determined it meets those requirements.

Research suggests that Texas has strong geological formations for CO2 storage, a world-class, highly skilled workforce, and robust infrastructure primed for the deployment of CCS. However, federal permitting delays are stalling billions of dollars of private sector investment. There are currently 257 applications under review, nearly one-quarter of which are located in Texas, with some applications surpassing the EPA’s target review period of 24 months. This creates uncertainty for developers and investors and keeps thousands of potential jobs out of reach. By transferring permitting to the state, Texas will apply local resources to issue Class VI permits across the states in a timely manner.

Texas joins North Dakota, Wyoming, Louisiana, West Virginia and Arizona with the authority for regulating Class VI wells.

Is CCS safe?

A 2025 study by Texas A&M University reviewed operational history and academic literature on CCS in the United States. The study analyzed common concerns related to CCS efficacy and safety and found that CCS reduces pollutants including carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides. The research found that the risks of CCS present a low probability of impacting human life and can be effectively managed through existing state and federal regulations and technical monitoring and safety protocols.

What’s Next?

The final rule granting Texas’ primacy will become effective 30 days after publication in the Federal Register. Once in effect, the Texas Railroad Commission will be responsible for permitting wells for carbon capture, use and storage and enforcing their safe operation.

———

This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. For more information about the Houston Energy Transition Initiative, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

What lies ahead over the next year? Photo via Getty Images

Oil markets on edge: Geopolitics, supply risks, and what comes next

guest column

Oil prices are once again riding the waves of geopolitics. Uncertainty remains a key factor shaping global energy trends.

As of June 25, 2025, U.S. gas prices were averaging around $3.22 per gallon, well below last summer’s levels and certainly not near any recent high. Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading near $68 per barrel, though analysts warn that renewed escalation especially involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $90 or even $100. Trump’s recent comments that China may continue purchasing Iranian oil add yet another layer of geopolitical complexity.

So how should we think about the state of the oil market and what lies ahead over the next year?

That question was explored on the latest episode of The Energy Forum with experts Skip York and Abhi Rajendran, who both bring deep experience in analyzing global oil dynamics.

“About 20% of the world’s oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Skip. “When conflict looms, even the perception of disruption can move the market $5 a barrel or more.”

This is exactly what we saw recently: a market reacting not just to actual supply and demand, but to perceived risk. And that risk is compounding existing challenges, where global demand remains steady, but supply has been slow to respond.

Abhi noted that U.S. shale production has been flat so far this year, and that given the market’s volatility, it’s becoming harder to stay short on oil. In his view, a higher price floor may be taking hold, with longer-lasting upward pressure likely if current dynamics continue.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is signaling supply increases, but actual delivery has underwhelmed. Add in record-breaking summer heat in the Middle East, pulling up seasonal demand, and it’s easy to see why both experts foresee a return to the $70–$80 range, even without a major shock.

Longer-term, structural changes in China’s energy mix are starting to reshape demand patterns globally. Diesel and gasoline may have peaked, while petrochemical feedstock growth continues.

Skip noted that China has chosen to expand mobility through “electrons, not molecules,” a reference to electric vehicles over conventional fuels. He pointed out that EVs now account for over 50% of monthly vehicle sales, a signal of a longer-term shift in China’s energy demand.

But geopolitical context matters as much as market math. In his recent policy brief, Jim Krane points out that Trump’s potential return to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran is no longer guaranteed strong support from Gulf allies.

Jim points out that Saudi and Emirati leaders are taking a more cautious approach this time, worried that another clash with Iran could deter investors and disrupt progress on Vision 2030. Past attacks and regional instability continue to shape their more restrained approach.

And Iran, for its part, has evolved. The “dark fleet” of sanctions-evasion tankers has expanded, and exports are booming up to 2 million barrels per day, mostly to China. Disruption won’t be as simple as targeting a single export terminal anymore, with infrastructure like the Jask terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Where do we go from here?

Skip suggests we may see prices drift upward through 2026 as OPEC+ runs out of spare capacity and U.S. shale declines. Abhi is even more bullish, seeing potential for a quicker climb if demand strengthens and supply falters.

We’re entering a phase where geopolitical missteps, whether in Tehran, Beijing, or Washington, can have outsized impacts. Market fundamentals matter, but political risk is the wildcard that could rewrite the price deck overnight.

As these dynamics continue to evolve, one thing is clear: energy policy, diplomacy, and investment strategy must be strategically coordinated to manage risk and maintain market stability. The stakes for global markets are simply too high for misalignment.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally appeared on LinkedIn.

Houston is the epicenter of energy and power resilience. Photo courtesy of HETI

Key takeaways from HETI's Resilient Power Fueling Houston's Economy event

The View From HETI

Recently, the Resilient Power Fueling Houston’s Growing Economy workshop hosted by The Greater Houston Partnership’s Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI) brought together more than 80 industry, civic and innovation leaders in Houston to examine the region’s ability to meet rising demand with resilient power leadership.

The overarching message was clear: Houston is the epicenter of energy and power resilience and the “all of the above” strategy continues to position Houston well for the mission of continued economic growth for the region.

Morning highlights

Keynote speakers and panelists throughout the morning sessions highlighted that Houston’s ability to collaborate is creating real opportunities in a time of significant complexity and uncertainty in the power landscape. Discussions also focused on strategic approaches to resilience in both generation and transmission to serve growing power demand and drive economic growth over the near-term and long-term.

A successful near-term strategy highlighted in the workshop is the innovative business partnership to provide resilience for H-E-B’s retail operations with Enchanted Rock’s bridge-to-grid power solutions. The impact of growing sources of power demand was explored, including the decarbonization of industry and increasing digitization, and the essential collaborations between the energy and tech sectors to drive effective long-term power resilience and economic growth were discussed.

Notable quotes

“Public-private collaborations are the key to solve long-term power resilience problems with the technical expertise and investment capital of corporations and a right-sized local government approach” – Angela Blanchard, Chief Resilience Officer, City of Houston

"The risks and challenges in terms of our net zero power goals require both urgency and long-term focus to drive standardization across the system with speed.” – Sverre Brandsberg-Dahl, General Manager & Head of Product, Microsoft Cloud for Energy

Afternoon highlights

Afternoon sessions focused on complexities and challenges in the current power landscape, as well as policy enablers, investment trends, and innovations driving growth in Houston’s power sector. Stakeholder engagement, supply chain, permitting, and policy emerged from these discussions as key enablers for power and infrastructure investment, innovation, and project advancement.

Advancing and accelerating power and infrastructure projects will require focusing on the critical needs of land, power, and permits. Public-private investment partnerships, along with redesigned regulatory architecture and redirected government incentives, can enable and accelerate innovation and emerging technologies within the power sector.

Notable quotes

“Broad based stakeholder engagement on the ground – early and often – is necessary for the build-out of large-scale power infrastructure.” – Al Vickers, Chief Operating Officer, Grid United

“Learning curves are essential to cost curves, iterative improvement is paramount to project execution.” – Mary Dhillon, Strategy Lead, Fervo Energy

“Show us good unit economics, and we will find the capital for those power and infrastructure projects.” – Michael Johnson, Vice Chairman, Energy Transition Investment Banking, J.P. Morgan

Houston’s resilient power leadership demonstrated through a unique “all of the above” approach with a broad range of investments and collaborations across sectors is creating sustained value for businesses and development opportunities for communities. The insights shared in this workshop reinforce the critical need for resilience of the power sector to meet growing demand for continued economic prosperity in the Houston region.

As the world moves toward a future of significant power demand growth, the power sector should prioritize integrated strategies, stakeholder engagement, supply chain, permitting, and policy as key enablers for innovation, investment, and collaboration.

———

This article originally ran on the Greater Houston Partnership's Houston Energy Transition Initiative blog. HETI exists to support Houston's future as an energy leader. Power resilience is a strategic imperative for the Greater Houston Partnership, and power management continues to be a key workstream for HETI. To learn more about HETI's work in power management and resilience, connect with us at contactheti@houston.org. And for more information about HETI, EnergyCapitalHTX's presenting sponsor, visit htxenergytransition.org.

Texas legislators carved out $715 million for nuclear, semiconductor and other economic development projects in the 2025 session. Photo via Getty Images

Here's how Houston's energy and innovation sectors fared in the 2025 Texas legislative session

bills, bills, bills

The Greater Houston Partnership is touting a number of victories during the recently concluded Texas legislative session that will or could benefit the Houston area. They range from millions of dollars for energy projects to billions of dollars for dementia research.

“These wins were only possible through deep collaboration, among our coalition partners, elected officials, business and community leaders, and the engaged members of the Partnership,” according to a partnership blog post. “Together, we’ve demonstrated how a united voice for Houston helps drive results that benefit all Texans.”

In terms of business innovation, legislators carved out $715 million for nuclear, semiconductor, and other economic development projects, and a potential $1 billion pool of tax incentives through 2029 to support research-and-development projects. The partnership said these investments “position Houston and Texas for long-term growth.”

"Nuclear power renaissance"

House Bill 14 (HB 14), for instance, aims to lead a “nuclear power renaissance in the United States,” according to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office. HB 14 establishes the Texas Advanced Nuclear Energy Office, and allocates $350 million for nuclear development and deployment. Two nuclear power plants currently operate in Texas, generating 10 percent of the energy that feeds the Electric Reliability Council Texas (ERCOT) power grid.

“This initiative will also strengthen Texas’ nuclear manufacturing capacity, rebuild a domestic fuel cycle supply chain, and train the future nuclear workforce,” Abbott said in a news release earlier this year.

One of the beneficiaries of Texas’ nuclear push could be Washington, D.C.-based Last Energy, which plans to build 30 micro-nuclear reactors near Abilene to serve power-gobbling data centers across the state. Houston-based Pelican Energy Partners also might be able to take advantage of the legislation after raising a $450 million fund to invest in companies that supply nuclear energy services and equipment.

Reed Clay, president of the Texas Nuclear Alliance, called this legislation “the most important nuclear development program of any state.”

“It is a giant leap forward for Texas and the United States, whose nuclear program was all but dead for decades,” said Clay. “With the passage of HB 14 and associated legislation, Texas is now positioned to lead a nuclear renaissance that is rightly seen as imperative for the energy security and national security of the United States.”

Infrastructure

In the infrastructure arena, state lawmakers:

  • Approved $265 million for Houston-area water and flood mitigation projects, including $100 million for the Lynchburg Pump Station.
  • Created the Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District.
  • Established a fund for the Gulf Coast Protection District to supply $550 million for projects to make the coastline and ship channel more resilient.

Dementia institute

One of the biggest legislative wins cited by the Greater Houston Partnership was passage of legislation sponsored by Sen. Joan Huffman, a Houston Republican, to provide $3 billion in funding over 10 years for the Dementia Prevention and Research Institute of Texas. Voters will be asked in November to vote on a ballot initiative that would set aside $3 billion for the new institute.

The dementia institute would be structured much like the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT), a state agency that provides funding for cancer research in the Lone Star State. Since its founding in 2008, CPRIT has awarded nearly $3.9 billion in research grants.

“By establishing the Dementia Prevention and Research Institute of Texas, we are positioning our state to lead the charge against one of the most devastating health challenges of our time,” Huffman said. “With $3 billion in funding over the next decade, we will drive critical research, develop new strategies for prevention and treatment, and support our healthcare community. Now, it’s up to voters to ensure this initiative moves forward.”

More than 500,000 Texans suffer from some form of dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, according to Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

“With a steadfast commitment, Texas has the potential to become a world leader in combating [dementia] through the search for effective treatments and, ultimately, a cure,” Patrick said.

Funding for education

In the K-12 sector, lawmakers earmarked an extra $195 million for Houston ISD, $126.7 million for Cypress-Fairbanks ISD, $103.1 million for Katy ISD, $80.6 million for Fort Bend ISD, and $61 million for Aldine ISD, the partnership said.

In higher education, legislators allocated:

  • $1.17 billion for the University of Houston College of Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, UT MD Anderson Cancer Center, and Baylor College of Medicine.
  • $922 million for the University of Houston System.
  • $167 million for Texas Southern University.
  • $10 million for the Center for Biotechnology at San Jacinto College.
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Shell launches hydrogen electrolyzer pilot and more energy news to know

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Editor's note: The new year brings big news in the energy transition sector, from Shell's hydrogen electrolyzer pilot to a maritime technology company on a mission to electrify ships. Below are the five most-read EnergyCapitalHTX stories from the second half of January 2026:

1. Shell partners with UK-based co. for hydrogen electrolyzer pilot

Supercritical Solutions' electrolyzer aims to deliver high-efficiency renewable hydrogen at a lower cost for the industrial hydrogen market. Photo courtesy Supercritical Solutions.

Shell Global Solutions International, a subsidiary of Shell, which maintains its U.S. headquarters in Houston, has signed a collaboration agreement with London-based Supercritical Solutions to advance Supercritical’s ultra-efficient hydrogen electrolyzer technology toward a field pilot demonstration. Continue reading.

2. 3 Houston-area companies named to Global Cleantech 100

Amperon, Hertha Metals and Vaulted Deep were named to this year's Global Cleantech 100 list. Photo via Getty Images

Three Houston-area companies—Amperon, Hertha Metals and Vaulted Deep—appear on this year’s Global Cleantech 100 list. The unranked list, generated by market intelligence and advisory firm Cleantech Group, identifies the 100 privately held companies around the world that are most likely to make a significant impact in the cleantech market over the next five to 10 years. Continue reading.

3. Houston maritime startup raises $43M to electrify cargo vessels

Fleetzero has raised $43 million to expand the manufacturing of its hybrid and electric marine propulsion system. Photo courtesy Fleetzero.

A Houston-based maritime technology company that is working to reduce emissions in the cargo and shipping industry has raised VC funding and opened a new Houston headquarters. Fleetzero announced that it closed a $43 million Series A financing round this month. The funding will go toward expanding manufacturing of its Leviathan hybrid and electric marine propulsion system. Continue reading.

4. Houston geothermal company raises $97M Series B

Sage Geosystems has raised a $97 million Series B. Photo via sagegeosystems.com.

Houston-based geothermal energy startup Sage Geosystems has closed its Series B fundraising round and plans to use the money to launch its first commercial next-generation geothermal power generation facility. Ormat Technologies and Carbon Direct Capital co-led the $97 million round. The new geothermal power generation facility will be located at one of Ormat Technologies' existing power plants. Continue reading.

5. Houston expert discusses the clean energy founder's paradox

Nada Ahmed. Courtesy photo

Everyone tells you to move fast and break things. In clean energy, moving fast without structural integrity means breaking the only planet we’ve got. This is the founder's paradox: you are building a company in an industry where the stakes are existential, the timelines are glacial, and the capital requires patience. Continue reading this guest column.

Expert: Why Texas must make energy transmission a top priority in 2026

guest column

Texas takes pride in running one of the most dynamic and deregulated energy markets in the world, but conversations about electricity rarely focus on what keeps it moving: transmission infrastructure.

As ERCOT projects unprecedented electricity demand growth and grid operators update their forecasts for 2026, it’s becoming increasingly clear that generation, whether renewable or fossil, is only part of the solution. Transmission buildout and sound governing policy now stand as the linchpin for reliability, cost containment, and long-term resilience in a grid under unprecedented stress.

At the heart of this urgency is one simple thing: demand. Over 2024 and 2025, ERCOT has been breaking records at a pace we haven’t seen before. From January through September of 2025 alone, electricity use jumped more than 5% over the year before, the fastest growth of any major U.S. grid. And it’s not slowing down.

The Energy Information Administration expects demand to climb another 14% in 2026, pushing total consumption to roughly 425 terawatt-hours in just the first nine months. That surge isn’t just about more people moving to Texas or running their homes differently; it’s being driven by massive industrial and technology loads that simply weren’t part of the equation ten years ago.

The most dramatic contributor to that rising demand is large-scale infrastructure such as data centers, cloud computing campuses, crypto mining facilities, and electrified industrial sectors. In the latest ERCOT planning update, more than 233 gigawatts of total “large load” interconnection requests were being tracked, an almost 300% jump over just a year earlier, with more than 70% of those requests tied to data centers.

Imagine hundreds of new power plants requesting to connect to the grid, all demanding uninterrupted power 24/7. That’s the scale of the transition Texas is facing, and it’s one of the major reasons transmission planning is no longer back-of-house policy talk but a central grid imperative.

Yet transmission is complicated, costly, and inherently long-lead. It takes three to six years to build new transmission infrastructure, compared with six to twelve months to add a new load or generation project.

This is where Texas will feel the most tension. Current infrastructure can add customers and power plants quickly, but the lines to connect them reliably take time, money, permitting, and political will.

To address these impending needs, ERCOT wrapped up its 2024 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) at the end of last year, and the message was pretty clear: we’ve got work to do. The plan calls for 274 transmission projects and about 6,000 miles of new, rebuilt, or upgraded lines just to handle the growth coming our way and keep the lights on.

The plan also suggests upgrading to 765-kilovolt transmission lines, a big step beyond the standard 345-kV system. When you start talking about 765-kilovolt transmission lines, that’s a big leap from what Texas normally uses. Those lines are built to move a massive amount of power over long distances, but they’re expensive and complicated, so they’re only considered when planners expect demand to grow far beyond normal levels. Recommending them is a clear signal that incremental upgrades won’t be enough to keep up with where electricity demand is headed.

There’s a reason transmission is suddenly getting so much attention. ERCOT and just about every industry analyst watching Texas are projecting that electricity demand could climb as high as 218 gigawatts by 2031 if even a portion of the massive queue of large-load projects actually comes online. When you focus only on what’s likely to get built, the takeaway is the same: demand is going to stay well above anything we’ve seen before, driven largely by the steady expansion of data centers, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure across the state.

Ultimately, the decisions Texas makes on transmission investment and the policies that determine how those costs are allocated will shape whether 2026 and the years ahead bring greater stability or continued volatility to the grid. Thoughtful planning can support growth while protecting reliability and affordability, but falling short risks making volatility a lasting feature of Texas’s energy landscape.

Transmission Policy: The Other Half of the Equation

Infrastructure investment delivers results only when paired with policies that allow it to operate efficiently and at scale. Recognizing that markets alone won’t solve these challenges, Texas lawmakers and regulators have started creating guardrails.

For example, Senate Bill 6, now part of state law, aims to improve how large energy consumers are managed on the grid, including new rules for data center operations during emergencies and requirements around interconnection. Data centers may even be required to disconnect under extreme conditions to protect overall system reliability, a novel and necessary rule given their scale.

Similarly, House Bill 5066 changed how load forecasting occurs by requiring ERCOT to include utility-reported projections in its planning processes, ensuring transmission planning incorporates real-world expectations. These policy updates matter because grid planning isn’t just a technical checklist. It’s about making sure investment incentives, permitting decisions, and cost-sharing rules are aligned so Texas can grow its economy without putting unnecessary pressure on consumers.

Without thoughtful policy, we risk repeating past grid management mistakes. For example, if transmission projects are delayed or underfunded while new high-demand loads come online, we could see congestion worsen. If that happens, affordable electricity would be located farther from where it’s needed, limiting access to low-cost power for consumers and slowing overall economic growth. That’s especially critical in regions like Houston, where energy costs are already a hot topic for households and businesses alike.

A 2026 View: Strategy Over Shortage

As we look toward 2026, here are the transmission and policy trends that matter most:

  • Pipeline of Projects Must Stay on Track: ERCOT’s RTP is ambitious, and keeping those 274 projects, thousands of circuit miles, and next-generation 765-kV lines moving is crucial for reliability and cost containment.
  • Large Load Forecasting Must Be Nuanced: The explosion in large-load interconnection requests, whether or not every project materializes, signals demand pressure that transmission planners cannot ignore. Building lines ahead of realized demand is not wasteful planning; it’s insurance against cost and reliability breakdowns.
  • Policy Frameworks Must Evolve: Laws like SB 6 and HB 5066 are just the beginning. Texas needs transparent rules for cost allocation, interconnection standards, and emergency protocols that keep consumers protected while supporting innovation and economic growth.
  • Coordination Among Stakeholders Is Critical: Transmission doesn’t stop at one utility’s borders. Regional cooperation among utilities, ERCOT, and local stakeholders is essential to manage congestion and develop systemwide reliability solutions.

Here’s the bottom line: Generation gets the headlines, but transmission makes the grid work. Without a robust transmission buildout and thoughtful governance, even the most advanced generation mix that includes wind, solar, gas, and storage will struggle to deliver the reliability Texans expect at a price they can afford.

In 2026, Texas is not merely testing its grid’s capacity to produce power; it’s testing its ability to move that power where it’s needed most. How we rise to meet that challenge will define the next decade of energy in the Lone Star State.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

New Gulf Coast recycling plant partners with first-of-kind circularity hub

now open

TALKE USA Inc., the Houston-area arm of German logistics company TALKE, officially opened its Recycling Support Center earlier this month.

Located next to the company's Houston-area headquarters, the plant will process post-consumer plastic materials, which will eventually be converted into recycling feedstock. Chambers County partially funded the plant.

“Our new recycling support center expands our overall commitment to sustainable growth, and now, the community’s plastics will be received here before they head out for recycling. This is a win for the residents of Chambers County," Richard Heath, CEO and president of TALKE USA, said in a news release.

“The opening of our recycling support facility offers a real alternative to past obstacles regarding the large amount of plastic products our local community disposes of. For our entire team, our customers, and the Mont Belvieu community, today marks a new beginning for effective, safe, and sustainable plastics recycling.”

The new plant will receive the post-consumer plastic and form it into bales. The materials will then be processed at Cyclyx's new Houston Circularity Center, a first-of-its-kind plastic waste sorting and processing facility being developed through a joint venture between Cyclix, ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell.

“Materials collected at this facility aren’t just easy-to-recycle items like water bottles and milk jugs. All plastics are accepted, including multi-layered films—like chip bags and juice pouches. This means more of the everyday plastics used in the Chambers County community can be captured and kept out of landfills,” Leslie Hushka, chief impact officer at Cyclyx, added in a LinkedIn post.

Cyclyx's circularity center is currently under construction and is expected to produce 300 million pounds of custom-formulated feedstock annually.

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