Guest Column

Is the Texas power grid prepared for summer 2025 heat?

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

  • Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
  • Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
  • Adjust transmission cost allocations
  • Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A View From HETI

Texas continues to lead the nation in clean energy adoption and grid modernization. Photo by Moritz Lange on Unsplash

Texas leads the nation in energy production, providing about one-fourth of the country’s domestically produced primary energy. It is also the largest energy-consuming state, accounting for about one-seventh of the nation’s total energy use, and ranks sixth among the states in per capita energy consumption.

However, because Texas produces significantly more energy than it consumes, it stands as the nation’s largest net energy supplier. October marked National Energy Awareness Month, so this is an ideal time to reflect on how far Texas has come in improving energy efficiency.

Progress in Clean Energy and Grid Resilience

Texas continues to lead the nation in clean energy adoption and grid modernization, particularly in wind and solar power. With over 39,000 MW of wind capacity, Texas ranks first in the country in wind-powered electricity generation, now supplying more than 10% of the state’s total electricity.

This growth was significantly driven by the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which requires utility companies to produce new renewable energy in proportion to their market share. Initially, the RPS aimed to generate 10,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2025. Thanks to aggressive capacity building, this ambitious target was reached much earlier than anticipated.

Solar energy is also expanding rapidly, with Texas reaching 16 GW of solar capacity as of April 2024. The state has invested heavily in large-scale solar farms and supportive policies, contributing to a cleaner energy mix.

Texas is working to integrate both wind and solar to create a more resilient and cost-effective grid. Efforts to strengthen the grid also include regulatory changes, winterization mandates, and the deployment of renewable storage solutions.

While progress is evident, experts stress the need for continued improvements to ensure grid reliability during extreme weather events, when we can’t rely on the necessities for these types of energy sources to thrive. To put it simply, the sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow.

Federal Funding Boosts Energy Efficiency

In 2024, Texas received $22.4 million, the largest share of a $66 million federal award, from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency Revolving Loan Fund Capitalization Grant Program.

The goal of this funding is to channel federal dollars into local communities to support energy-efficiency projects through state-based loans and grants. According to the DOE, these funds can be used by local businesses, homeowners, and public institutions for energy audits, upgrades, and retrofits that reduce energy consumption.

The award will help establish a new Texas-based revolving loan fund modeled after the state’s existing LoanSTAR program, which already supports cost-effective energy retrofits for public facilities and municipalities. According to the Texas Comptroller, as of 2023, the LoanSTAR program had awarded more than 337 loans totaling over $600 million.

In addition to expanding the revolving loan model, the state plans to use a portion of the DOE funds to offer free energy audit services to the public. The grant program is currently under development.

Building on this momentum, in early 2025, Texas secured an additional $689 million in federal funding to implement the Home Energy Performance-Based, Whole House (HOMES) rebate program and the Home Electrification and Application Rebate (HEAR) program.

This investment is more than five times the state’s usual energy efficiency spending. Texas’s eight private Transmission and Distribution Utilities typically spend about $110 million annually on such measures. The state will have multiple years to roll out both the revolving loan and rebate programs.

However, valuable federal tax incentives for energy-efficient home improvements are set to expire on December 31, 2025, including:

  • The Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit allows homeowners to claim up to $3,200 per year in federal income tax credits, covering 30% of the cost of eligible upgrades, such as insulation, windows, doors, and high-efficiency heating and cooling systems.
  • The Residential Clean Energy Credit provides a 30% income tax credit for the installation of qualifying clean energy systems, including rooftop solar panels, wind turbines, geothermal heat pumps, and battery storage systems.

As these incentives wind down, the urgency grows for Texas to build on the positive gains from the past several years despite reduced federal funding. The state has already made remarkable strides in clean energy production, grid modernization, and energy-efficiency investments, but the path forward requires a strategic and inclusive approach to energy planning. Through ongoing state-federal collaboration, community-driven initiatives, and forward-looking policy reforms, Texas can continue its progress, ensuring that future energy challenges are met with sustainable and resilient solutions.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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