Guest Column

Is the Texas power grid prepared for summer 2025 heat?

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

  • Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
  • Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
  • Adjust transmission cost allocations
  • Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

---

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Trending News

 

A View From HETI

Houston American Energy Corp. has acquired Abundia Global Impact Group, which converts plastic and certified biomass waste into high-quality renewable fuels. Photo via Getty Images.

Renewable energy company Houston American Energy Corp. (NYSE: HUSA) has acquired Abundia Global Impact Group, according to a news release.

Houston American reports that the acquisition will allow it to create a combined company focused on converting waste plastics into high-value, drop-in, low-carbon fuels and chemical products. It plans to move forward with Abundia’s plans for developing large-scale recycling projects, with a new facility previously announced for the Gulf Coast, located in Cedar Port Industrial Park, near the Baytown area of Houston.

New York-based Abundia used its proprietary pyrolysis process to convert plastic and certified biomass waste into high-quality renewable fuels. Its founder, Ed Gillespie, will serve as CEO of the combined company and will join HUSA’s board of directors. Peter Longo, who previously served as HUSA's CEO, will serve as chairman of the board. Lucie Harwood was named CFO and Joseph Gasik will serve as COO.

“The completion of this acquisition represents a pivotal transformation for HUSA,” Longo said in a news release. “Abundia has a commercially ready solution for converting waste into valuable fuels and chemicals, with a backlog of development opportunities utilizing proprietary technologies and key industry partnerships. This transaction gives HUSA shareholders a ready-made platform and project pipeline for future value generation as the fuel and chemical industries accelerate their adoption of low-carbon solutions and sustainable aviation fuel.”

The combined company plans to serve what it estimates is a multi-billion-dollar global demand for renewable fuels, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and recycled chemical feedstocks, according to the news release.

“This is a landmark moment for Abundia and a major step forward for the renewable industry,” Gillespie added in the release. “Joining forces with HUSA and entering the public capital markets positions us to accelerate growth, scale our technology and expand our influence within the renewable and recycling industries. I am proud of the hard work and determination of both the AGIG and HUSA teams to finalize this transaction. We look forward to delivering shareholder value and critical technologies to reduce carbon emissions.”

Houston American Energy announced the deal in March. The company also closed a $4.42 million registered direct offering in January.

Trending News