A key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, scientists say. Photo via Pexels

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

A new initiative from federal agencies hopes to enhance access to information about greenhouse gas emissions. Photo via nasa.gov

NASA, EPA share plans for greenhouse gas initiative at COP28

need some space

Two of Houston's top industries are in for a collaboration of sorts, according to a recent announcement at the 28th annual United Nations Climate Conference, or COP28.

NASA, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and other U.S. agencies have unveiled the plans for the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center, a hub for collaboration for the federal agencies and nonprofit and private sector partners.

“NASA data is essential to making the changes needed on the ground to protect our climate. The U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center is another way the Biden-Harris Administration is working to make critical data available to more people – from scientists running data analyses, to government officials making decisions on climate policy, to members of the public who want to understand how climate change will affect them,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson says in a news release. “We’re bringing space to Earth to benefit communities across the country.”

NASA is taking the lead implementing agency position for the new center, which will be run by Argyro Kavvada, center program manager, who's based in NASA headquarters in Washington. The EPA, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will also be involved and provide greenhouse gas datasets and analysis tools.

“A goal of the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center is to accelerate the collaborative use of Earth science data,” Kavvada says. “We’re working to get the right data into the hands of people who can use it to manage and track greenhouse gas emissions.”

The center’s data catalog will be available online and target three areas: greenhouse gas emissions from humans, naturally occurring greenhouse gas emissions, and large methane emission event identification and quantification from aircraft and space-based data.

According to the release, the center is one piece of the current administration's effort to amplify information on greenhouse gas emissions, as outlined in the recently released National Strategy to Advance an Integrated U.S. Greenhouse Gas Measurement, Monitoring, and Information System.

Lignium combats greenhouse gasses with a green fuel that boasts an enviably low carbon footprint. Photo courtesy of Lignium

Why this growing Chilean clean energy company moved its HQ to Houston

future of farming

In Houston, air pollution is usually more of an abstract concept than a harsh reality. But in parts of Chile, the consequences of heating homes with wet wood are catching up to residents.

“Given all the contamination, there are times kids aren’t allowed to go to school. The air pollution is really affecting people’s health,” says Agustín Ríos, COO of Lignium Energy.

Additionally, the methane and nitrous oxide produced by cattle farming are a problem. But Lignium Energy, an international company started in Chile and now headquartered in Houston’s Greentown Labs, has a solution that can solve both problems by upending the latter.

“There’s a lack of solutions with the problem of manure. Methane gases are destroying our planet,” says CEO and co-founder Enrique Guzmán. He goes on to say that most solutions currently being developed are expensive and complex. But not Lignium Energy’s method, invented by co-founder José Antonio Caraball.

Caraball has patented an extraordinarily simple concept. Lignium separates the solid from liquid excretions, then cleans the solid to generate a hay-like biomass. Biomass refers to organic matter that can be used as fuel. What Lignium makes from the cattle evacuations is a clean, odorless and highly calorific biomass.

Essentially, Lignium combats greenhouse gasses with a green fuel that boasts an enviably low carbon footprint. “Our process is very cheap and very simple. That’s why we are a great solution,” explains Guzmán.

Caraball, an industrial engineer, came up with the idea six years ago, says Guzmán. Five years ago, he began working with the company, one year ago, Guzmán and Ríos picked up and moved to Houston.

“We decided to move out of Chile due to market size,” says Ríos. However, the product is already being sold to consumers in its homeland.

Why Houston? The reason was twofold. As an energy company, Ríos says that they wanted to be in “the energy capital of the world.” But Texas is also one of the largest sites of cattle farming on the planet. Lignium prefers to work with farms with more than 500 head to optimize harvesting the waste that becomes biomass.

With that in mind, Lignium has partnered with Southwest Regional Dairy Center in Stephenville, Texas, a little more than an hour southwest of Fort Worth, a town known as the world’s rodeo capital. The facility is associated with Texas A&M, though Guzmán says Lignium is not officially associated with the university.

Guzmán says that the company is currently hiring a team member to help Lignium figure out commercial logistics, as well as four or five other Houstonians who will help them take their product to market in the United States, and eventually around the globe. For now, he predicts that they will be able to sell to consumers in this country by early next year, if not the fourth quarter of 2023.

“We are very committed to the solution because, at the end of the day, if we do good work with the company, we are sure we can give better conditions to the cattle industry,” says Guzmán. “Then we can make a big impact on a real problem.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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Houston Methodist leader on the push for sustainable health care and new local event

Q&A

Every industry can play a role in the energy transition, and Houston Methodist is leading the charge in the health care sector.

Culminating at this week’s inaugural Green ICU Conference, part of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week, the health care system has spent the last three years taking a closer look at its environmental footprint—and showing other hospital systems and medical organizations how they too can make simple changes to reduce emissions.

The event, held tomorrow, Sept. 17, at TMC Helix Park, will bring together health care professionals, industry leaders, policymakers and innovators to explore solutions for building a more sustainable healthcare system.

In an interview with EnergyCapital, Dr. Faisal N. Masud, medical director of critical care at Houston Methodist and a champion for sustainability efforts across the system, shares the inspiration behind the event and what attendees can expect to take away.

Tell us about how the Green ICU Conference came to be.

Houston Methodist’s inaugural Green ICU conference is about three years in the making. It originated because Houston Methodist recognized the significant impact health care has on sustainability and the lack of similar initiatives in the U.S.

The Center for Critical Care at Houston Methodist launched a sustainability-focused ICU initiative, published a roadmap and became involved in international efforts to develop guidelines that many other organizations now use. Our work led to the creation of the first Green ICU Collaborative in the country, and the Green ICU Conference was established to share best practices and address the global impact of critical care on the environment.

What were some of the biggest takeaways from the collaborative, and how are they represented in this new event?

Through the Green ICU Collaborative, we’ve seen that health care professionals can make a significant impact on sustainability through simple, practical changes, and many solutions can be implemented without major costs or compromising patient care. Additionally, there’s a strong link between environmental stewardship and patient safety and quality. These lessons will be represented in the new Green ICU Conference by showcasing easy-to-adopt best practices, emphasizing the importance of sustainability in daily health care operations, and fostering a sense of shared responsibility among attendees to improve both patient outcomes and environmental impact.

Why are ICUs considered to be such carbon hot spots?

ICUs are considered carbon hot spots because they care for the sickest patients, requiring intensive therapies, numerous medications and a large amount of equipment, such as ventilators and pumps. This makes them the most resource- and energy-intensive areas in a hospital. A single day in the ICU can have a greenhouse gas impact equivalent to driving a car 1,000 kilometers.

The U.S. health care sector is responsible for approximately 8.5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, and hospitals are the second-most energy-intensive commercial buildings in the country. With the Texas Medical Center being in the heart of Houston, it’s critical that health care organizations play a role in this area.

That’s why the Center for Critical Care launched a system-wide Green ICU Initiative with the Houston Methodist Office of Sustainability to help reduce our carbon impact and waste while continuing to provide unparalleled patient care. Innovation is part of our culture, and that extends into our sustainability efforts. Houston Methodist’s Green ICU initiative is the first-of-its-kind in the U.S.

What efforts has Houston Methodist taken to cut emissions?

The first step to cutting emissions is measuring an organization’s carbon footprint to determine the best path forward. Houston Methodist’s Office of Sustainability has aggregated two years of baseline emissions data pending third-party validation. The hospital has taken several steps to cut emissions, including implementing composting programs, installing solar panels, improving energy utilization and participating in global plastic recycling initiatives. These efforts are part of a broader commitment led by our Office of Sustainability to reduce the hospital’s environmental footprint.

Tell us a little more about the event. Who should attend? What do you expect to be some of the highlights?

The Green ICU Conference, taking place during Houston Energy and Climate Week, is focused on health care sustainability, bringing together health care professionals, engineers, experts and anyone interested in reducing health care’s environmental impact. With participants and speakers from six countries, the conference brings together leading experts who aim to raise awareness, share best practices and offer practical, easy-to-adopt solutions for making health care more sustainable.

Highlights include perspectives from leading voices in health care sustainability, real-world examples of successful sustainability initiatives and opportunities for networking and collaboration. Anyone interested in health care, sustainability,or making a positive impact in their community should consider attending.

And, because of increasing interest, we’ve opened up the opportunity for attendees to join virtually at no cost or in person.

What do you hope attendees take away? What are your major goals for the event?

The main goals of hosting the Green ICU Conference for the first time are to raise awareness about the environmental impact of health care; engage and empower attendees to implement easy, practical sustainability solutions; and foster a sense of shared community and responsibility.

I hope attendees leave the event feeling motivated and equipped to make meaningful changes in their own practices, whether that’s improving patient care, supporting their colleagues, or leaving their organization and environment in a better place for future generations.

Texas House Democrats urge Trump administration to restore $250M solar grant

solar grants

Eight Democratic members of the U.S. House from Texas, including two from Houston, are calling on the Trump administration to restore a nearly $250 million solar energy grant for Texas that’s being slashed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

In a letter to Lee Zeldin, head of the EPA, and Russell Vought, director of the federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the House members urged the two officials to reinstate the nearly $250 million grant, which was awarded to Texas under the $7 billion Biden-era Solar for All program. The Texas grant was designed to assist 28,000 low-income households in installing solar panels, aiming to reduce their energy bills.

“This administration has improperly withheld billions in congressionally appropriated funding that was intended to benefit everyday Americans,” the letter stated.

The letter claimed that numerous court rulings have determined the EPA cannot repeal already allocated funding.

“Congress made a commitment to families, small businesses, and communities across this country to lower their utility bills and reduce harmful pollution through investments in clean energy. The Solar for All program was part of that commitment, and the EPA’s actions to rescind this funding effectively undermine that congressional intent,” the House members wrote.

The six House members who signed the letter are:

  • U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Al Green of Houston
  • U.S. Rep. Greg Casar of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Austin
  • U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Dallas
  • U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey of Fort Worth

The nearly $250 million grant was awarded last year to the Harris County-led Texas Solar for All Coalition.

In a post on the X social media platform, Zeldin said the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill” killed the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which would have financed the $7 billion Solar for All program.

“The bottom line is this: EPA no longer has the statutory authority to administer the program or the appropriated funds to keep this boondoggle alive,” Zeldin said.