Climate Report

Scientists warn greenhouse gas accumulation is accelerating and more extreme weather will come

A key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, scientists say. Photo via Pexels

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

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A View From HETI

Lydian Energy has secured financing for three battery storage system projects in Texas. Photo via Getty Images.

The Electricity Reliability Council of Texas’ grid will get a boost courtesy of Lydian Energy.

The D.C.-based company announced the successful financial close of its first institutional project financing totaling $233 million, backed by ING Group and KeyBank. The financing will support three battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in Texas.

Lydian is an independent power producer that specializes in the development, construction and operation of utility-scale solar and battery energy storage projects. The company reports that it plans to add 550 megawatts of energy—which can power approximately 412,500 homes—to the Texas grid administered by ERCOT.

“This financing marks an important step forward as we continue executing on our vision to scale transformative battery storage projects that meet the evolving energy needs of the communities we serve,” Emre Ersenkal, CEO at Lydian Energy, said in a news release.

The projects include:

Pintail 

  • Located in San Patricio county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Crane

  • Located in Crane county
  • 200 megawatts
  • Backed by ING

Headcamp

  • Located in Pecos county
  • 150 megawatts
  • Backed by KeyBank

ING served as the lender for Pintail and Crane projects valued at a combined total of approximately $139 million.

KeyBank provided a $94 million financing package for the Headcamp project. KeyBanc Capital Markets also structured the financing package for Headcamp.

The three projects are being developed under Excelsior Energy Capital’s Fund II. Lydian’s current portfolio comprises 20 solar and storage projects, totaling 4.7 gigawatts of capacity.

“Our support of Lydian’s portfolio reflects ING’s focus on identifying strategic funding opportunities that align with the accelerating demand for sustainable power,” Sven Wellock, managing director and head of energy–renewables and power at ING, said in the release. “Battery storage plays a central role in supporting grid resilience, and we’re pleased to back a platform with strong fundamentals and a clear execution path.”

The facilities are expected to be placed in service by Q4 2025. Lydian is also pursuing additional financing for further projects, which are expected to commence construction by the end of 2025.

“These financings represent more than capital – they reflect the strong demand for reliable energy infrastructure in high-growth U.S. markets,” Anne Marie Denman, co-founding partner at Excelsior Energy Capital and chair of the board at Lydian Energy, added in the news release. “We’re proud to stand behind Lydian’s talented team as they deliver on the promise of battery storage with bankable projects, proven partners, and disciplined execution. In the midst of a lot of noise, these financings are a reminder that capital flows where infrastructure is satisfying fundamental needs of our society – in this case, the need for reliable, sustainable, domestic, and affordable energy.”

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