A key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, scientists say. Photo via Pexels

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

Rising temps could result in rolling brownouts this summer–unless we work together to reduce the strain on the electric grid. Photo via Shutterstock

NERC warns of summer energy shortfalls–what you can do now

THINGS ARE HEATING UP

The North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) issued a warning with the 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment yesterday – energy shortages could be coming this summer for two-thirds of North America if temperatures spike higher than normal.

“Increased, rapid deployment of wind, solar and batteries have made a positive impact,” Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of reliability assessments says in the release. “However, generator retirements continue to increase the risks associated with extreme summer temperatures, which factors into potential supply shortages in the western two-thirds of North America if summer temperatures spike.”

For Texans, the combined risk of drought and higher-than-normal temperatures could stress ERCOT system resources, especially in the case of reduced wind. But before there’s a mad rush on generators, keep in mind, electricity consumers can take simple actions to minimize the possibility of widespread shortfalls.

Electricity demand begins rising daily around 2 P.M. in the summer and peaks in the final hours of daylight. These hours are generally not only the warmest hours of the day but also the busiest. People return from work to their homes, crank down the air conditioner, turn on TVs, run a load of wash, and prepare meals using multiple electric-powered appliances.

If everyone takes one or two small steps to avoid unnecessary stress on the grid in the hours after coming home from work, we can prevent energy shortfalls. Modify routines now to get into the habit of running the dishwasher overnight, using the washer and dryer before noon or after 8 pm and pulling the shades down in the bright afternoon hours of the day.

Try to delay powering up devices – including EVs – until after dark. Turn off and unplug items to avoid sapping electricity when items are not in use. And if you can bear it, nudge that thermostat up a couple of degrees.

Energy sustainability demands consistent collaboration and coordination from every consumer of energy. Let’s get in the habit of acting neighborly now with conservative electricity practices before we start seeing temperatures–of both the literal and figurative kind–flare.

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California company launches Tesla Megapack battery project in Houston area

power on

Oakland, California-based Nightpeak Energy announced earlier this month that its 150-megawatt battery storage project in Brazoria County, known as Bocanova Power, is now operating to address Houston’s peak capacity needs.

“This battery storage project will enhance grid reliability in the Alvin area while continuing to support integrating renewable energy,” Cary Perrin, president and CEO of the Northern Brazoria County Chamber of Commerce, said in a news release. “I believe we need energy storage now more than ever for its pivotal role in reducing strain on the grid while meeting fast-growing power demand in Texas and Brazoria County."

The project reached commercial operation in August, according to the release. The project utilizes Tesla's Megapack 2 XL battery storage system, and the facility operates under a long-term power purchase agreement with an undisclosed “investment-grade power purchaser.”

“Bocanova Power demonstrates the speed at which Nightpeak Energy is overcoming complex challenges to energize projects that support America's growing need for affordable, reliable, and secure energy,” Paris Hays, co-founder and CEO/CDO of Nightpeak Energy, added in the news release. “Unprecedented AI data center and manufacturing growth has only accelerated the need for these resources.”

Hays added in the release that the company has plans for more energy infrastructure projects in Texas and in the Western U.S.

Nightpeak Energy develops, owns and operates power plants that support the growing capacity needs of a decarbonized grid. It also owns and operates 240 MW of battery storage and natural gas generation facilities.

The company was founded in 2022 and backed by equity funding of up to $200 million from Dallas-based investment firm Energy Spectrum Capital.

Texas ranks low on most energy-efficient states report

by the numbers

Texas has room to improve when it comes to energy efficiency, recent data from WalletHub shows.

The personal finance website ranked Texas at No. 35 on the latest Most & Least Energy-Efficient States list. Texas improved by one spot on the 2025 report, after coming in at No. 36 last year.

The report measured and ranked the efficiency of auto energy and home energy consumption in the 48 U.S. mainland states based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Energy Information Administration and the U.S. Department of Transportation – Federal Highway Administration.

Texas earned an overall score of 50.60. It was ranked No. 27 for home energy efficiency and No. 41 for auto efficiency. By comparison, No. 1-ranked Vermont earned a score of 85.30, ranking No. 2 for home energy and No. 6 for out energy.

The top five overall states included:

  • No. 1 Vermont
  • No. 2 California
  • No. 3 Washington
  • No. 4 New York
  • No. 5 Massachusetts

South Dakota earned the top rank for home energy efficiency, and Massachusetts earned the top rank for energy efficiency.

“Energy efficiency doesn’t just help save the planet – it also helps save you money by lowering the amount of electricity, gas, oil or other types of energy you need to consume. While there are some steps you can take to become more energy-efficient on your own, living in the right area can give you a big boost," WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo said in the report. "For example, certain states have much better public transportation systems that minimize your need to drive, at least in big cities. Some places also have better-constructed buildings that retain heat better during the winter or stay cooler during the summer.”

According to the report, some progress is being made in increasing energy efficiency across the country. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects 26 percent of electricity generation in 2026 will come from renewables. A number of them are being developed in the Houston area, including recent announcements like the Pleasure Island Power Collective in Port Arthur.

Still, Houston earned an abysmal ranking on WalletHub's greenest cities in the U.S. report earlier this year, coming in at No. 99 out of 100. Read more here.

Port Houston reports emissions progress as cargo volumes climb

greener growth

Port Houston’s initiatives to reduce emissions have shown some positive results, according to new data from the Port of Houston Authority.

Pulling from the Goods Movement Emissions Inventory (GMEI) report, which tracks port-related air emissions, Port Houston cited several improvements compared to the most recent report from 2019.

The port has seen total tonnage and container volumes increase by 16 percent and 28 percent, respectively, since 2019. However, greenhouse gas emissions have increased at a slower rate, growing only by 10 percent during the same time period, according to the data.

Additionally, emissions of nitrogen oxide fell by 7 percent, and emissions of particulate matter fell by 4 percent, despite adding 280 more pieces of cargo handling equipment.

“These results show that our emission-reduction efforts are working, and we are moving in the right direction,” Chairman Ric Campo said in a news release.

The Port Commission also recently approved items related to the $3 million U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Ports Program (CPP) grant, which it received last year. The items will allow the port to work towards five new sustainability initiatives.

They include:

  1. An inventory of the port’s Scopes 1, 2, and 3 for greenhouse gas emissions
  2. A Port Area Climate Action Plan for the area and surrounding communities
  3. A CPP Truck Route Analysis
  4. Creation of the CPP Trucking Industry Collaborative
  5. Design of a customized website for Port of Houston Partners in Maritime Education, which is a non-profit leading maritime workforce development effort in local schools.

Port Houston aims to be carbon neutral by 2050.

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This article originally appeared on our sister site, Innovation Map.