A key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, scientists say. Photo via Pexels

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

A team of Texas researchers has landed a nearly $1 million NSF grant to address rural flood management challenges with community input. Photo via Getty Images.

Houston-led project earns $1 million in federal funding for flood research

team work

A team from Rice University, the University of Texas at Austin and Texas A&M University have been awarded a National Science Foundation grant under the CHIRRP—or Confronting Hazards, Impacts and Risks for a Resilient Planet—program to combat flooding hazards in rural Texas.

The grant totals just under $1 million, according to a CHIRRP abstract.

The team is led by Avantika Gori, assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice. Other members include Rice’s James Doss-Gollin, Andrew Juan at Texas A&M University and Keri Stephens at UT Austin.

Researchers from Rice’s Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center and Ken Kennedy Institute, Texas A&M’s Institute for A Disaster Resilient Texas and the Technology & Information Policy Institute at UT Austin are part of the team as well.

Their proposal includes work that introduces a “stakeholder-centered framework” to help address rural flood management challenges with community input.

“Our goal is to create a flood management approach that truly serves rural communities — one that’s driven by science but centers around the people who are impacted the most,” Gori said in a news release.

The project plans to introduce a performance-based system dynamics framework that integrates hydroclimate variability, hydrology, machine learning, community knowledge, and feedback to give researchers a better understanding of flood risks in rural areas.

The research will be implemented in two rural Texas areas that struggle with constant challenges associated with flooding. The case studies aim to demonstrate how linking global and regional hydroclimate variability with local hazard dynamics can work toward solutions.

“By integrating understanding of the weather dynamics that cause extreme floods, physics-based models of flooding and AI or machine learning tools together with an understanding of each community’s needs and vulnerabilities, we can better predict how different interventions will reduce a community’s risk,” Doss-Gollin said in a news release.

At the same time, the project aims to help communities gain a better understanding of climate science in their terms. The framework will also consider “resilience indicators,” such as business continuity, transportation access and other features that the team says more adequately address the needs of rural communities.

“This work is about more than flood science — it’s also about identifying ways to help communities understand flooding using words that reflect their values and priorities,” said Stephens. “We’re creating tools that empower communities to not only recover from disasters but to thrive long term.”

The university will use the grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to develop a cost-effective, sustainable method for extracting rare earth elements from electronic waste. Photo via Getty Images

Texas A&M awarded $1.3M federal grant to develop clean energy tech from electronic waste

seeing green

Texas A&M University in College Station has received a nearly $1.3 million federal grant for development of clean energy technology.

The university will use the $1,280,553 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to develop a cost-effective, sustainable method for extracting rare earth elements from electronic waste.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a set of 17 metallic elements.

“REEs are essential components of more than 200 products, especially high-tech consumer products, such as cellular telephones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, and flat-screen monitors and televisions,” according to the Eos news website.

REEs also are found in defense equipment and technology such as electronic displays, guidance systems, lasers, and radar and sonar systems, says Eos.

The grant awarded to Texas A&M was among $17 million in DOE grants given to 14 projects that seek to accelerate innovation in the critical materials sector. The federal Energy Act of 2020 defines a critical material — such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, lithium, magnesium, nickel, and platinum — as a substance that faces a high risk of supply chain disruption and “serves an essential function” in the energy sector.

“DOE is helping reduce the nation’s dependence on foreign supply chains through innovative solutions that will tap domestic sources of the critical materials needed for next-generation technologies,” says U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm. “These investments — part of our industrial strategy — will keep America’s growing manufacturing industry competitive while delivering economic benefits to communities nationwide.”

Competing virtually against 145 teams from 34 countries, the students, known as The Dream Team, won third place for their plan to address energy poverty in Egypt and Turkey. Photo courtesy of UH

Houston university students earn top honors at global energy-poverty competition

dream team

A student-led team from the University of Houston and Texas A&M University took home top prizes at last month's Switch Energy Alliance Case Competition.

Competing virtually against 145 teams from 34 countries, the students, known as The Dream Team, won third place for their plan to address energy poverty in Egypt and Turkey. They were awarded $5,000 in prize money.

The competition challenges student teams to solve real-world energy problems to "drive progress towards a sustainable and equitable energy future," according to the Switch competition's website.

“The Switch competition tackles major issues that we often don’t think about on a daily basis in the United States, so it is a really interesting and tough challenge to solve,” Sarah Grace Kimberly, a senior finance major at UH and member of the team, said in a statement from the university

Kimberly was joined by Pranjal Sheth, a fellow senior finance major at UH, and Nathan Hazlett, a finance graduate student at TAMU with a bachelor’s degree in petroleum engineering.

The Dream Team developed a 10-year plan to address Egypt and Turkey's energy poverty that would create 200,000 jobs, reduce energy costs and improve energy access in rural areas. Its major components included:

  • Developing rooftop and utility-scale solar farms and solar canopies over irrigation canals
  • Expanding wind power capacity by taking advantage of high wind speeds in the Gulf of Suez and Western Desert
  • Deploying cost-efficient technologies along the Nile for rural electrification

“People in the United States should be extremely thankful for the infrastructure and systems that allow us to thrive with power, food and water,” Sheth said in the statement. “Texas went through Winter Storm Uri in 2021—people were without electricity for weeks, and lives were lost. It still comes up in conversations, but certain regions of the world, developing nations, live that experience almost every day. We need to make that a larger part of the conversation and work to help them.”

Team Quwa, a team of four students from the University of Texas at Austin, took home second place and $7,000 in prize money.

“This journey was both intellectually enriching and personally fulfilling,” Mohamed Awad, a PhD candidate at the Hildebrand Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, said in a statement from UT. “Through the case competition, we had an opportunity to contribute meaningful ideas to address a critical global issue.”

Team Energy Nexus from India earned the top prize and took home $10,000, according to a release from Switch.

Switch Energy Alliance is an Austin-based non-profit that's focused on energy education. The Switch competition began in 2020. Teams of three to four students create a presentation and 15-minute video. The top five teams present their case studies live and answer questions before a panel of judges.

More than 3,200 students from 55 countries have competed over the years. Click here to watch the 2024 final round.

Ali Mostafavi, founder of Resilitix.AI, joins the Houston Innovators Podcast to discuss how he pivoted to provide important data amid Hurricane Beryl. Photo via tamu.edu

Why this entrepreneur believes Houston should lead resilience technology alongside the energy transition

tune in

When it comes to developing resilience technology, Houston startup founder Ali Mostafavi knows he's in the right place.

Mostafavi, a civil and environmental engineering professor at Texas A&M University, co-founded Resilitix.AI two years ago, and with the help of his lab at A&M, has created a platform that brings publicly available data into AI algorithms to provide its partners near-real time information in storm settings.

"We are very excited that our company is Houston based," he says on the Houston Innovators Podcast. "We should not be just ground zero of disasters. We have to also be ground zero for solutions as well. I believe Houston should be the hub for resilience tech innovation as it is for energy transition.

"I think energy transition, climatetech, energy tech, and disaster tech go hand in hand," Mostafavi continues. "I feel that we are in the right place."

Earlier this month, Mostafavi got an unexpected chance to pilot his company's data-backed and artificial intelligence-powered platform — all while weathering one of Houston's most impactful storms.

As Hurricane Beryl came ashore with Houston on its path, Mostafavi says he had the opportunity to both test his technology and provide valuable information to his community during the storm.

"We were in the process of fine tuning some of our methods and algorithms behind our technology," Mostafavi says. "When disasters happen, you go to activation mode. We put our technology development and R&D efforts on hold and try to test our technology in an operational setting."

The platform provides its partners — right now, those include local and state organizations and emergency response teams — information on evacuation reports, street flooding, and even damage sustained based on satellite imagery. Mostafavi says that during Beryl, users were wondering how citizens were faring amid rising temperatures and power outages. The Resilitix team quickly pivoted to apply algorithms to hospital data to see which neighborhoods were experiencing high volumes of patients.

"We had the ability to innovate on the spot," Mostafavi says, adding that his own lack of power and internet was an additional challenge for the company. "When an event happens, we start receiving requests and questions. ... We had to be agile and adapt our methods to be responsive. Then at the same time, because we haven't tested it, we have to verify that we are confident (in the information we provide)."

On the episode, Mostafavi shares how Hurricane Harvey — which occurred shortly after Mostafavi moved to Houston — inspired the foundation of Resilitix, and he also explains how he plans to grow and scale the business.

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This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

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Syzygy partners with fellow Houston co. on sustainable aviation fuel facility

SAF production

Houston-based Syzygy Plasmonics has announced a partnership with Velocys, another Houston company, on its first-of-its-kind sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production project in Uruguay.

Velocys was selected to provide Fischer-Tropsch technology for the project. Fischer-Tropsch technology converts synthesis gas into liquid hydrocarbons, which is key for producing synthetic fuels like SAF.

Syzygy estimates that the project, known as NovaSAF 1, will produce over 350,000 gallons of SAF annually. It is backed by Uruguay’s largest dairy and agri-energy operations, Estancias del Lago, with permitting and equipment sourcing ongoing. Syzygy hopes to start operations by 2027.

"This project proves that profitable SAF production doesn't have to wait on future infrastructure," Trevor Best, CEO of Syzygy Plasmonics, said in a news release. "With Velocys, we're bringing in a complete, modular solution that drives down overall production costs and is ready to scale. Uruguay is only the start."

The NovaSAF 1 facility will convert dairy waste and biogas into drop-in jet fuel using renewable electricity and waste gas via its light-driven GHG e-Reforming technology. The facility is expected to produce SAF with at least an 80 percent reduction in carbon intensity compared to Jet A fuel.

Syzygy will use Velocys’ microFTL technology to convert syngas into high-yield jet fuel. Velocys’ microFTL will help maximize fuel output, which will assist in driving down the cost required to produce synthetic fuel.

"We're proud to bring our FT technology into a project that's changing the game," Matthew Viergutz, CEO of Velocys, added in the release. "This is what innovation looks like—fast, flexible, and focused on making SAF production affordable."

How carbon capture works and the debate about whether it's a future climate solution

Energy Transition

Power plants and industrial facilities that emit carbon dioxide, the primary driver of global warming, are hopeful that Congress will keep tax credits for capturing the gas and storing it deep underground.

The process, called carbon capture and sequestration, is seen by many as an important way to reduce pollution during a transition to renewable energy.

But it faces criticism from some conservatives, who say it is expensive and unnecessary, and from environmentalists, who say it has consistently failed to capture as much pollution as promised and is simply a way for producers of fossil fuels like oil, gas and coal to continue their use.

Here's a closer look.

How does the process work?

Carbon dioxide is a gas produced by burning of fossil fuels. It traps heat close to the ground when released to the atmosphere, where it persists for hundreds of years and raises global temperatures.

Industries and power plants can install equipment to separate carbon dioxide from other gases before it leaves the smokestack. The carbon then is compressed and shipped — usually through a pipeline — to a location where it’s injected deep underground for long-term storage.

Carbon also can be captured directly from the atmosphere using giant vacuums. Once captured, it is dissolved by chemicals or trapped by solid material.

Lauren Read, a senior vice president at BKV Corp., which built a carbon capture facility in Texas, said the company injects carbon at high pressure, forcing it almost two miles below the surface and into geological formations that can hold it for thousands of years.

The carbon can be stored in deep saline or basalt formations and unmineable coal seams. But about three-fourths of captured carbon dioxide is pumped back into oil fields to build up pressure that helps extract harder-to-reach reserves — meaning it's not stored permanently, according to the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

How much carbon dioxide is captured?

The most commonly used technology allows facilities to capture and store around 60% of their carbon dioxide emissions during the production process. Anything above that rate is much more difficult and expensive, according to the IEA.

Some companies have forecast carbon capture rates of 90% or more, “in practice, that has never happened,” said Alexandra Shaykevich, research manager at the Environmental Integrity Project’s Oil & Gas Watch.

That's because it's difficult to capture carbon dioxide from every point where it's emitted, said Grant Hauber, a strategic adviser on energy and financial markets at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

Environmentalists also cite potential problems keeping it in the ground. For example, last year, agribusiness company Archer-Daniels-Midland discovered a leak about a mile underground at its Illinois carbon capture and storage site, prompting the state legislature this year to ban carbon sequestration above or below the Mahomet Aquifer, an important source of drinking water for about a million people.

Carbon capture can be used to help reduce emissions from hard-to-abate industries like cement and steel, but many environmentalists contend it's less helpful when it extends the use of coal, oil and gas.

A 2021 study also found the carbon capture process emits significant amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that’s shorter-lived than carbon dioxide but traps over 80 times more heat. That happens through leaks when the gas is brought to the surface and transported to plants.

About 45 carbon-capture facilities operated on a commercial scale last year, capturing a combined 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide — a tiny fraction of the 37.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector alone, according to the IEA.

It's an even smaller share of all greenhouse gas emissions, which amounted to 53 gigatonnes for 2023, according to the latest report from the European Commission’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis says one of the world's largest carbon capture utilization and storage projects, ExxonMobil’s Shute Creek facility in Wyoming, captures only about half its carbon dioxide, and most of that is sold to oil and gas companies to pump back into oil fields.

Future of US tax credits is unclear

Even so, carbon capture is an important tool to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, particularly in heavy industries, said Sangeet Nepal, a technology specialist at the Carbon Capture Coalition.

“It’s not a substitution for renewables ... it’s just a complementary technology,” Nepal said. “It’s one piece of a puzzle in this broad fight against the climate change.”

Experts say many projects, including proposed ammonia and hydrogen plants on the U.S. Gulf Coast, likely won't be built without the tax credits, which Carbon Capture Coalition Executive Director Jessie Stolark says already have driven significant investment and are crucial U.S. global competitiveness.

Houston renewable fuel company expands reach with latest acquisition

fueling up

Houston-based Freedom CNG, a provider and distributor of compressed renewable natural gas, has acquired ComTech Energy, a Canada-based provider of on-site mobile refueling for compressed renewable natural gas. The purchase price wasn’t disclosed.

The acquisition allows Freedom CNG to adopt a hub-and-spoke operational model, allowing customers to move away from fixed fueling infrastructure with low-carbon energy solutions across North America, according to a news release.

In conjunction with the deal, ComTech President James Ro has joined Freedom CNG as chief commercial and strategy officer.

“As we expand our footprint in low‑carbon fuel solutions, acquiring ComTech Energy marks an important step in enhancing our ability to deliver efficient, innovative fueling infrastructure,” Nick Kurtenbach, president and chief financial officer of Freedom CNG, said in the release. The acquisition, he added, “allows us to offer a more comprehensive suite of solutions that support the transition to cleaner energy and meet the evolving needs of our customers.”

Freedom CNG’s North American footprint now spans more than 25 fueling stations for compressed renewable natural gas and over 60 operations and maintenance sites across the U.S. and Canada.

This is the third acquisition for Freedom CNG in the last two months. It also recently acquired Colorado-based X3 CNG and Utah-based Lancer Energy, according to a representative from Freedom CNG, this summer. The company services regional trucks, buses and service vehicles, as well as heavy construction, agriculture, data centers and other sectors.

Last year, funds affiliated with alternative asset manager Apollo bought a majority stake in Freedom CNG, which was founded in 2012. The value of the deal wasn’t disclosed.

“Freedom has developed a strong portfolio of [renewable natural gas] fueling stations with meaningful growth potential driven by established relationships with blue-chip customers and attractive new development opportunities,” Apollo partner Scott Browning said in 2024.