A new study on Mars is shining a light on the Earth's own climate mysteries. Image via UH.edu

Scientists at the University of Houston have found a new understanding of climate and weather on Mars.

The study, which was published in a new paper in AGU Advances and will be featured in AGU’s science magazine EOS, generated the first meridional profile of Mars’ radiant energy budget (REB). REB represents the balance or imbalance between absorbed solar energy and emitted thermal energy across latitudes. An energy surplus can lead to global warming, and a deficit results in global cooling, which helps provide insights to Earth's atmospheric processes too. The profile of Mars’ REB influences weather and climate patterns.

The study was led by Larry Guan, a graduate student in the Department of Physics at UH's College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics under the guidance of his advisors Professor Liming Li from the Department of Physics and Professor Xun Jiang from the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and other planetary scientists. UH graduate students Ellen Creecy and Xinyue Wang, renowned planetary scientists Germán Martínez, Ph.D. (Houston’s Lunar and Planetary Institute), Anthony Toigo, Ph.D. (Johns Hopkins University) and Mark Richardson, Ph.D. (Aeolis Research), and Prof. Agustín Sánchez-Lavega (Universidad del País, Vasco, Spain) and Prof. Yeon Joo Lee (Institute for Basic Science, South Korea) also assisted in the project.

The profile of Mars’ REB is based on long-term observations from orbiting spacecraft. It offers a detailed comparison of Mars’ REB to that of Earth, which has shown differences in the way each planet receives and radiates energy. Earth shows an energy surplus in the tropics and a deficit in the polar regions, while Mars exhibits opposite behavioral patterns.

The surplus is evident in Mars’ southern hemisphere during spring, which plays a role in driving the planet’s atmospheric circulation and triggering the most prominent feature of weather on the planet, global dust storms. The storms can envelop the entire planet, alter the distribution of energy, and provide a dynamic element that affects Mars’ weather patterns and climate.

The research team is currently examining long-term energy imbalances on Mars and how it influences the planet’s climate.

“The REB difference between the two planets is truly fascinating, so continued monitoring will deepen our understanding of Mars’ climate dynamics,” Li says in a news release.

The global-scale energy imbalance on Earth was recently discovered, and it contributes to global warming at a “magnitude comparable to that caused by increasing greenhouse gases,” according to the study. Mars has an environment that differs due to its thinner atmosphere and lack of anthropogenic effects.

“The work in establishing Mars’ first meridional radiant energy budget profile is noteworthy,” Guan adds. “Understanding Earth’s large-scale climate and atmospheric circulation relies heavily on REB profiles, so having one for Mars allows critical climatological comparisons and lays the groundwork for Martian meteorology.”

The world can't keep on with what it's doing and expect to reach its goals when it comes to climate change. Radical innovations are needed at this point, writes Scott Nyquist. Photo via Getty Images

Only radical innovation can get the world to its climate goals, says this Houston expert

guest column

Almost 3 years ago, McKinsey published a report arguing that limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was “technically achievable,” but that the “math is daunting.” Indeed, when the 1.5°C figure was agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference, the assumption was that emissions would peak before 2025, and then fall 43 percent by 2030.

Given that 2022 saw the highest emissions ever—36.8 gigatons—the math is now more daunting still: cuts would need to be greater, and faster, than envisioned in Paris. Perhaps that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted March 20 (with “high confidence”) that it was “likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century.”

I agree with that gloomy assessment. Given the rate of progress so far, 1.5°C looks all but impossible. That puts me in the company of people like Bill Gates; the Economist; the Australian Academy of Science, and apparently many IPCC scientists. McKinsey has estimated that even if all countries deliver on their net zero commitments, temperatures will likely be 1.7°C higher in 2100.

In October, the UN Environment Program argued that there was “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” and called for “an urgent system-wide transformation” to change the trajectory. Among the changes it considers necessary: carbon taxes, land use reform, dietary changes in which individuals “consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction,” investment of $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year; applying current technology to all new buildings; no new fossil fuel infrastructure. And so on.

Let’s assume that the UNEP is right. What are the chances of all this happening in the next few years? Or, indeed, any of it? President Obama’s former science adviser, Daniel Schrag, put it this way: “ Who believes that we can halve global emissions by 2030?... It’s so far from reality that it’s kind of absurd.”

Having a goal is useful, concentrating minds and organizing effort. And I think that has been the case with 1.5°C, or recent commitments to get to net zero. Targets create a sense of urgency that has led to real progress on decarbonization.

The 2020 McKinsey report set out how to get on the 1.5°C pathway, and was careful to note that this was not a description of probability or reality but “a picture of a world that could be.” Three years later, that “world that could be” looks even more remote.

Consider the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter. In 2021, 79 percent of primary energy demand (see chart) was met by fossil fuels, about the same as a decade before. Globally, the figures are similar, with renewables accounting for just 12.5 percent of consumption and low-emissions nuclear another 4 percent. Those numbers would have to basically reverse in the next decade or so to get on track. I don’t see how that can happen.

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Credit: Energy Information Administration

But even if 1.5°C is improbable in the short term, that doesn’t mean that missing the target won’t have consequences. And it certainly doesn’t mean giving up on addressing climate change. And in fact, there are some positive trends. Many companies are developing comprehensive plans for achieving net-zero emissions and are making those plans part of their long-term strategy. Moreover, while global emissions grew 0.9 percent in 2022, that was much less than GDP growth (3.2 percent). It’s worth noting, too, that much of the increase came from switching from gas to coal in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine; that is the kind of supply shock that can be reversed. The point is that growth and emissions no longer move in lockstep; rather the opposite. That is critical because poorer countries are never going to take serious climate action if they believe it threatens their future prosperity.

Another implication is that limiting emissions means addressing the use of fossil fuels. As noted, even with the substantial rise in the use of renewables, coal, gas, and oil are still the core of the global energy system. They cannot be wished away. Perhaps it is time to think differently—that is, making fossil fuels more emissions efficient, by using carbon capture or other technologies; cutting methane emissions; and electrifying oil and gas operations. This is not popular among many climate advocates, who would prefer to see fossil fuels “stay in the ground.” That just isn’t happening. The much likelier scenario is that they are gradually displaced. McKinsey projects peak oil demand later this decade, for example, and for gas, maybe sometime in the late 2030s. Even after the peak, though, oil and gas will still be important for decades.

Second, in the longer term, it may be possible to get back onto 1.5°C if, in addition to reducing emissions, we actually remove them from the atmosphere, in the form of “negative emissions,” such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in power and heavy industry. The IPCC itself assumed negative emissions would play a major role in reaching the 1.5°C target; in fact, because of cost and deployment problems, it’s been tiny.

Finally, as I have argued before, it’s hard to see how we limit warming even to 2°C without more nuclear power, which can provide low-emissions energy 24/7, and is the largest single source of such power right now.

None of these things is particularly popular; none get the publicity of things like a cool new electric truck or an offshore wind farm (of which two are operating now in the United States, generating enough power for about 20,000 homes; another 40 are in development). And we cannot assume fast development of offshore wind. NIMBY concerns have already derailed some high-profile projects, and are also emerging in regard to land-based wind farms.

Carbon capture, negative emissions, and nuclear will have to face NIMBY, too. But they all have the potential to move the needle on emissions. Think of the potential if fast-growing India and China, for example, were to develop an assembly line of small nuclear reactors. Of course, the economics have to make sense—something that is true for all climate-change technologies.

And as the UN points out, there needs to be progress on other issues, such as food, buildings, and finance. I don’t think we can assume that such progress will happen on a massive scale in the next few years; the actual record since Paris demonstrates the opposite. That is troubling: the IPCC notes that the risks of abrupt and damaging impacts, such as flooding and crop yields, rise “with every increment of global warming.” But it is the reality.

There is one way to get us to 1.5°C, although not in the Paris timeframe: a radical acceleration of innovation. The approaches being scaled now, such as wind, solar, and batteries, are the same ideas that were being discussed 30 years ago. We are benefiting from long-term, incremental improvements, not disruptive innovation. To move the ball down the field quickly, though, we need to complete a Hail Mary pass.

It’s a long shot. But we’re entering an era of accelerated innovation, driven by advanced computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning that could narrow the odds. For example, could carbon nanotubes displace demand for high-emissions steel? Might it be possible to store carbon deep in the ocean? Could geo-engineering bend the curve?

I believe that, on the whole, the world is serious about climate change. I am certain that the energy transition is happening. But I don’t think we are anywhere near to being on track to hit the 1.5°C target. And I don’t see how doing more of the same will get us there.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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Rice researchers' quantum breakthrough could pave the way for next-gen superconductors

new findings

A new study from researchers at Rice University, published in Nature Communications, could lead to future advances in superconductors with the potential to transform energy use.

The study revealed that electrons in strange metals, which exhibit unusual resistance to electricity and behave strangely at low temperatures, become more entangled at a specific tipping point, shedding new light on these materials.

A team led by Rice’s Qimiao Si, the Harry C. and Olga K. Wiess Professor of Physics and Astronomy, used quantum Fisher information (QFI), a concept from quantum metrology, to measure how electron interactions evolve under extreme conditions. The research team also included Rice’s Yuan Fang, Yiming Wang, Mounica Mahankali and Lei Chen along with Haoyu Hu of the Donostia International Physics Center and Silke Paschen of the Vienna University of Technology. Their work showed that the quantum phenomenon of electron entanglement peaks at a quantum critical point, which is the transition between two states of matter.

“Our findings reveal that strange metals exhibit a unique entanglement pattern, which offers a new lens to understand their exotic behavior,” Si said in a news release. “By leveraging quantum information theory, we are uncovering deep quantum correlations that were previously inaccessible.”

The researchers examined a theoretical framework known as the Kondo lattice, which explains how magnetic moments interact with surrounding electrons. At a critical transition point, these interactions intensify to the extent that the quasiparticles—key to understanding electrical behavior—disappear. Using QFI, the team traced this loss of quasiparticles to the growing entanglement of electron spins, which peaks precisely at the quantum critical point.

In terms of future use, the materials share a close connection with high-temperature superconductors, which have the potential to transmit electricity without energy loss, according to the researchers. By unblocking their properties, researchers believe this could revolutionize power grids and make energy transmission more efficient.

The team also found that quantum information tools can be applied to other “exotic materials” and quantum technologies.

“By integrating quantum information science with condensed matter physics, we are pivoting in a new direction in materials research,” Si said in the release.

Oxy subsidiary granted landmark EPA permits for carbon capture facility

making progress

Houston’s Occidental Petroleum Corp., or Oxy, and its subsidiary 1PointFive announced that the U.S Environmental Protection Agency approved its Class VI permits to sequester carbon dioxide captured from its STRATOS Direct Air Capture (DAC) facility near Odessa. These are the first such permits issued for a DAC project, according to a news release.

The $1.3 billion STRATOS project, which 1PointFive is developing through a joint venture with investment manager BlackRock, is designed to capture up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually and is expected to begin commercial operations this year. DAC technology pulls CO2 from the air at any location, not just where carbon dioxide is emitted. Major companies, such as Microsoft and AT&T, have secured carbon removal credit agreements through the project.

The permits are issued under the Safe Drinking Water Act's Underground Injection Control program. The captured CO2 will be stored in geologic formations more than a mile underground, meeting the EPA’s review standards.

“This is a significant milestone for the company as we are continuing to develop vital infrastructure that will help the United States achieve energy security,” Vicki Hollub, Oxy president and CEO, said in a news release.“The permits are a catalyst to unlock value from carbon dioxide and advance Direct Air Capture technology as a solution to help organizations address their emissions or produce vital resources and fuels.”

Additionally, Oxy and 1PointFive announced the signing of a 25-year offtake agreement for 2.3 million metric tons of CO2 per year from CF Industries’ upcoming Bluepoint low-carbon ammonia facility in Ascension Parish, Louisiana.

The captured CO2 will be transported to and stored at 1PointFive’s Pelican Sequestration Hub, which is currently under development. Eventually, 1PointFive’s Pelican hub in Louisiana will include infrastructure to safely and economically sequester industrial emissions in underground geologic formations, similar to the STRATOS project.

“CF Industries’ and its partners' confidence in our Pelican Sequestration Hub is a validation of our expertise managing carbon dioxide and how we collaborate with industrial organizations to become their commercial sequestration partner,” Jeff Alvarez, President of 1PointFive Sequestration, said in a news release.

1PointFive is storing up to 20 million tons of CO2 per year, according to the company.

“By working together, we can unlock the potential of American manufacturing and energy production, while advancing industries that deliver high-quality jobs and economic growth,” Alvarez said in a news release.

Houston energy-focused AI platform raises $5M in Mercury-led seed round

fresh funding

Houston-based Collide, a provider of generative artificial intelligence for the energy sector, has raised $5 million in seed funding led by Houston’s Mercury Fund.

Other investors in the seed round include Bryan Sheffield, founder of Austin-based Parsley Energy, which was acquired by Dallas-based Pioneer Natural Resources in 2021; Billy Quinn, founder and managing partner of Dallas-based private equity firm Pearl Energy Investments; and David Albin, co-founder and former managing partner of Dallas-based private equity firm NGP Capital Partners.

“(Collide) co-founders Collin McLelland and Chuck Yates bring a unique understanding of the oil and gas industry,” Blair Garrou, managing partner at Mercury, said in a news release. “Their backgrounds, combined with Collide’s proprietary knowledge base, create a significant and strategic moat for the platform.”

Collide, founded in 2022, says the funding will enable the company to accelerate the development of its GenAI platform. GenAI creates digital content such as images, videos, text, and music.

Originally launched by Houston media organization Digital Wildcatters as “a professional network and digital community for technical discussions and knowledge sharing,” the company says it will now shift its focus to rolling out its enterprise-level, AI-enabled solution.

Collide explains that its platform gathers and synthesizes data from trusted sources to deliver industry insights for oil and gas professionals. Unlike platforms such as OpenAI, Perplexity, and Microsoft Copilot, Collide’s platform “uniquely accesses a comprehensive, industry-specific knowledge base, including technical papers, internal processes, and a curated Q&A database tailored to energy professionals,” the company said.

Collide says its approximately 6,000 platform users span 122 countries.