A key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, scientists say. Photo via Pexels

Humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas in less than three years that a key threshold for limiting global warming will be nearly unavoidable, according to a study released June 19.

The report predicts that society will have emitted enough carbon dioxide by early 2028 that crossing an important long-term temperature boundary will be more likely than not. The scientists calculate that by that point there will be enough of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere to create a 50-50 chance or greater that the world will be locked in to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times. That level of gas accumulation, which comes from the burning of fuels like gasoline, oil and coal, is sooner than the same group of 60 international scientists calculated in a study last year.

“Things aren’t just getting worse. They’re getting worse faster,” said study co-author Zeke Hausfather of the tech firm Stripe and the climate monitoring group Berkeley Earth. “We’re actively moving in the wrong direction in a critical period of time that we would need to meet our most ambitious climate goals. Some reports, there’s a silver lining. I don’t think there really is one in this one.”

That 1.5 goal, first set in the 2015 Paris agreement, has been a cornerstone of international efforts to curb worsening climate change. Scientists say crossing that limit would mean worse heat waves and droughts, bigger storms and sea-level rise that could imperil small island nations. Over the last 150 years, scientists have established a direct correlation between the release of certain levels of carbon dioxide, along with other greenhouse gases like methane, and specific increases in global temperatures.

In Thursday's Indicators of Global Climate Change report, researchers calculated that society can spew only 143 billion more tons (130 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide before the 1.5 limit becomes technically inevitable. The world is producing 46 billion tons (42 billion metric tons) a year, so that inevitability should hit around February 2028 because the report is measured from the start of this year, the scientists wrote. The world now stands at about 1.24 degrees Celsius (2.23 degrees Fahrenheit) of long-term warming since preindustrial times, the report said.

Earth's energy imbalance

The report, which was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that the rate of human-caused warming per decade has increased to nearly half a degree (0.27 degrees Celsius) per decade, Hausfather said. And the imbalance between the heat Earth absorbs from the sun and the amount it radiates out to space, a key climate change signal, is accelerating, the report said.

“It's quite a depressing picture unfortunately, where if you look across the indicators, we find that records are really being broken everywhere,” said lead author Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds in England. “I can't conceive of a situation where we can really avoid passing 1.5 degrees of very long-term temperature change.”

The increase in emissions from fossil-fuel burning is the main driver. But reduced particle pollution, which includes soot and smog, is another factor because those particles had a cooling effect that masked even more warming from appearing, scientists said. Changes in clouds also factor in. That all shows up in Earth’s energy imbalance, which is now 25% higher than it was just a decade or so ago, Forster said.

Earth’s energy imbalance “is the most important measure of the amount of heat being trapped in the system,” Hausfather said.

Earth keeps absorbing more and more heat than it releases. “It is very clearly accelerating. It’s worrisome,” he said.

Crossing the temperature limit

The planet temporarily passed the key 1.5 limit last year. The world hit 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since preindustrial times for an entire year in 2024, but the Paris threshold is meant to be measured over a longer period, usually considered 20 years. Still, the globe could reach that long-term threshold in the next few years even if individual years haven't consistently hit that mark, because of how the Earth's carbon cycle works.

That 1.5 is “a clear limit, a political limit for which countries have decided that beyond which the impact of climate change would be unacceptable to their societies,” said study co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London.

The mark is so important because once it is crossed, many small island nations could eventually disappear because of sea level rise, and scientific evidence shows that the impacts become particularly extreme beyond that level, especially hurting poor and vulnerable populations, he said. He added that efforts to curb emissions and the impacts of climate change must continue even if the 1.5 degree threshold is exceeded.

Crossing the threshold "means increasingly more frequent and severe climate extremes of the type we are now seeing all too often in the U.S. and around the world — unprecedented heat waves, extreme hot drought, extreme rainfall events, and bigger storms,” said University of Michigan environment school dean Jonathan Overpeck, who wasn't part of the study.

Andrew Dessler, a Texas A&M University climate scientist who wasn't part of the study, said the 1.5 goal was aspirational and not realistic, so people shouldn’t focus on that particular threshold.

“Missing it does not mean the end of the world,” Dessler said in an email, though he agreed that “each tenth of a degree of warming will bring increasingly worse impacts.”

A new study on Mars is shining a light on the Earth's own climate mysteries. Image via UH.edu

Houston scientists create first profile of Mars’ radiant energy budget, revealing climate insights on Earth

research findings

Scientists at the University of Houston have found a new understanding of climate and weather on Mars.

The study, which was published in a new paper in AGU Advances and will be featured in AGU’s science magazine EOS, generated the first meridional profile of Mars’ radiant energy budget (REB). REB represents the balance or imbalance between absorbed solar energy and emitted thermal energy across latitudes. An energy surplus can lead to global warming, and a deficit results in global cooling, which helps provide insights to Earth's atmospheric processes too. The profile of Mars’ REB influences weather and climate patterns.

The study was led by Larry Guan, a graduate student in the Department of Physics at UH's College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics under the guidance of his advisors Professor Liming Li from the Department of Physics and Professor Xun Jiang from the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and other planetary scientists. UH graduate students Ellen Creecy and Xinyue Wang, renowned planetary scientists Germán Martínez, Ph.D. (Houston’s Lunar and Planetary Institute), Anthony Toigo, Ph.D. (Johns Hopkins University) and Mark Richardson, Ph.D. (Aeolis Research), and Prof. Agustín Sánchez-Lavega (Universidad del País, Vasco, Spain) and Prof. Yeon Joo Lee (Institute for Basic Science, South Korea) also assisted in the project.

The profile of Mars’ REB is based on long-term observations from orbiting spacecraft. It offers a detailed comparison of Mars’ REB to that of Earth, which has shown differences in the way each planet receives and radiates energy. Earth shows an energy surplus in the tropics and a deficit in the polar regions, while Mars exhibits opposite behavioral patterns.

The surplus is evident in Mars’ southern hemisphere during spring, which plays a role in driving the planet’s atmospheric circulation and triggering the most prominent feature of weather on the planet, global dust storms. The storms can envelop the entire planet, alter the distribution of energy, and provide a dynamic element that affects Mars’ weather patterns and climate.

The research team is currently examining long-term energy imbalances on Mars and how it influences the planet’s climate.

“The REB difference between the two planets is truly fascinating, so continued monitoring will deepen our understanding of Mars’ climate dynamics,” Li says in a news release.

The global-scale energy imbalance on Earth was recently discovered, and it contributes to global warming at a “magnitude comparable to that caused by increasing greenhouse gases,” according to the study. Mars has an environment that differs due to its thinner atmosphere and lack of anthropogenic effects.

“The work in establishing Mars’ first meridional radiant energy budget profile is noteworthy,” Guan adds. “Understanding Earth’s large-scale climate and atmospheric circulation relies heavily on REB profiles, so having one for Mars allows critical climatological comparisons and lays the groundwork for Martian meteorology.”

The world can't keep on with what it's doing and expect to reach its goals when it comes to climate change. Radical innovations are needed at this point, writes Scott Nyquist. Photo via Getty Images

Only radical innovation can get the world to its climate goals, says this Houston expert

guest column

Almost 3 years ago, McKinsey published a report arguing that limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was “technically achievable,” but that the “math is daunting.” Indeed, when the 1.5°C figure was agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference, the assumption was that emissions would peak before 2025, and then fall 43 percent by 2030.

Given that 2022 saw the highest emissions ever—36.8 gigatons—the math is now more daunting still: cuts would need to be greater, and faster, than envisioned in Paris. Perhaps that is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted March 20 (with “high confidence”) that it was “likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century.”

I agree with that gloomy assessment. Given the rate of progress so far, 1.5°C looks all but impossible. That puts me in the company of people like Bill Gates; the Economist; the Australian Academy of Science, and apparently many IPCC scientists. McKinsey has estimated that even if all countries deliver on their net zero commitments, temperatures will likely be 1.7°C higher in 2100.

In October, the UN Environment Program argued that there was “no credible pathway to 1.5°C in place” and called for “an urgent system-wide transformation” to change the trajectory. Among the changes it considers necessary: carbon taxes, land use reform, dietary changes in which individuals “consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction,” investment of $4 trillion to $6 trillion a year; applying current technology to all new buildings; no new fossil fuel infrastructure. And so on.

Let’s assume that the UNEP is right. What are the chances of all this happening in the next few years? Or, indeed, any of it? President Obama’s former science adviser, Daniel Schrag, put it this way: “ Who believes that we can halve global emissions by 2030?... It’s so far from reality that it’s kind of absurd.”

Having a goal is useful, concentrating minds and organizing effort. And I think that has been the case with 1.5°C, or recent commitments to get to net zero. Targets create a sense of urgency that has led to real progress on decarbonization.

The 2020 McKinsey report set out how to get on the 1.5°C pathway, and was careful to note that this was not a description of probability or reality but “a picture of a world that could be.” Three years later, that “world that could be” looks even more remote.

Consider the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter. In 2021, 79 percent of primary energy demand (see chart) was met by fossil fuels, about the same as a decade before. Globally, the figures are similar, with renewables accounting for just 12.5 percent of consumption and low-emissions nuclear another 4 percent. Those numbers would have to basically reverse in the next decade or so to get on track. I don’t see how that can happen.

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Credit: Energy Information Administration

But even if 1.5°C is improbable in the short term, that doesn’t mean that missing the target won’t have consequences. And it certainly doesn’t mean giving up on addressing climate change. And in fact, there are some positive trends. Many companies are developing comprehensive plans for achieving net-zero emissions and are making those plans part of their long-term strategy. Moreover, while global emissions grew 0.9 percent in 2022, that was much less than GDP growth (3.2 percent). It’s worth noting, too, that much of the increase came from switching from gas to coal in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine; that is the kind of supply shock that can be reversed. The point is that growth and emissions no longer move in lockstep; rather the opposite. That is critical because poorer countries are never going to take serious climate action if they believe it threatens their future prosperity.

Another implication is that limiting emissions means addressing the use of fossil fuels. As noted, even with the substantial rise in the use of renewables, coal, gas, and oil are still the core of the global energy system. They cannot be wished away. Perhaps it is time to think differently—that is, making fossil fuels more emissions efficient, by using carbon capture or other technologies; cutting methane emissions; and electrifying oil and gas operations. This is not popular among many climate advocates, who would prefer to see fossil fuels “stay in the ground.” That just isn’t happening. The much likelier scenario is that they are gradually displaced. McKinsey projects peak oil demand later this decade, for example, and for gas, maybe sometime in the late 2030s. Even after the peak, though, oil and gas will still be important for decades.

Second, in the longer term, it may be possible to get back onto 1.5°C if, in addition to reducing emissions, we actually remove them from the atmosphere, in the form of “negative emissions,” such as direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in power and heavy industry. The IPCC itself assumed negative emissions would play a major role in reaching the 1.5°C target; in fact, because of cost and deployment problems, it’s been tiny.

Finally, as I have argued before, it’s hard to see how we limit warming even to 2°C without more nuclear power, which can provide low-emissions energy 24/7, and is the largest single source of such power right now.

None of these things is particularly popular; none get the publicity of things like a cool new electric truck or an offshore wind farm (of which two are operating now in the United States, generating enough power for about 20,000 homes; another 40 are in development). And we cannot assume fast development of offshore wind. NIMBY concerns have already derailed some high-profile projects, and are also emerging in regard to land-based wind farms.

Carbon capture, negative emissions, and nuclear will have to face NIMBY, too. But they all have the potential to move the needle on emissions. Think of the potential if fast-growing India and China, for example, were to develop an assembly line of small nuclear reactors. Of course, the economics have to make sense—something that is true for all climate-change technologies.

And as the UN points out, there needs to be progress on other issues, such as food, buildings, and finance. I don’t think we can assume that such progress will happen on a massive scale in the next few years; the actual record since Paris demonstrates the opposite. That is troubling: the IPCC notes that the risks of abrupt and damaging impacts, such as flooding and crop yields, rise “with every increment of global warming.” But it is the reality.

There is one way to get us to 1.5°C, although not in the Paris timeframe: a radical acceleration of innovation. The approaches being scaled now, such as wind, solar, and batteries, are the same ideas that were being discussed 30 years ago. We are benefiting from long-term, incremental improvements, not disruptive innovation. To move the ball down the field quickly, though, we need to complete a Hail Mary pass.

It’s a long shot. But we’re entering an era of accelerated innovation, driven by advanced computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning that could narrow the odds. For example, could carbon nanotubes displace demand for high-emissions steel? Might it be possible to store carbon deep in the ocean? Could geo-engineering bend the curve?

I believe that, on the whole, the world is serious about climate change. I am certain that the energy transition is happening. But I don’t think we are anywhere near to being on track to hit the 1.5°C target. And I don’t see how doing more of the same will get us there.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn.

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Houston-area company leads Texas businesses on Time's most sustainable list

Spring-based IT company Hewlett Packard Enterprise leads the list of eight Texas businesses that appear in Time magazine’s and data provider Statista’s World’s Most Sustainable Companies list for 2025.

HPE landed at No. 68, earning a score of 74.36 out of 100.

Time and Statista said the ranking highlights corporate responsibility and promotes sustainable practices.

“In an era marked by significant environmental challenges and social inequalities, it is crucial to recognize and reward companies prioritizing sustainability,” according to an article on Time’s website. “By featuring these leading entities, the ranking sets a benchmark for other businesses, fostering transparency and accountability and encouraging the integration of sustainability into core corporate strategies.”

Time and Statista’s ranking process started with a list of more than 5,000 of the world’s largest, most influential companies based on factors such as revenue and public prominence. They identified the top 500 companies based on more than 20 data points.

The process weeded out non-sustainable businesses, such as those involved in producing fossil fuels, and zeroed in on:

  • External sustainability ratings
  • Availability and quality of sustainability reports
  • Performance regarding environmental and social responsibility measures

HPE is targeting net-zero status across its supply chain by 2040. Working toward that goal, the company predicts its carbon emissions will decrease by 33 percent from 2020 to 2028.

“The climate transition demands collective action across our entire value chain, and I am resolute in my commitment to ensure that HPE plays a central role in showcasing the attainability of net-zero emissions through our technologies and actions,” said Antonio Neri, HPE’s president and CEO.

Among the ways HPE is reducing carbon emissions are:

  • Shipping certain products in bigger bundles
  • Incorporating environmentally responsible design
  • Using more renewable energy
  • Improving energy efficiency in buildings
  • Eventually shifting to an all-electric automotive fleet

Here’s a rundown of the eight Texas-based companies that made the sustainability list, including their global rankings and scores.

  • No. 68 Spring-based Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Score: 74.36
  • No. 81 Dallas-based CBRE. Score: 73.49
  • No. 142 Dallas-based AMN Healthcare Services. Score: 69.8
  • No. 165 Austin-based Digital Realty. Score: 68.64
  • No. 257 Round Rock-based Dell Technologies. Score: 64.89
  • No. 295 Frisco-based Keurig Dr Pepper. Score: 63.25
  • No. 335 Dallas-based Jacobs Engineering. Score: 61.98
  • No. 471 Dallas-based AT&T. Score: 57.28

France-based Schneider Electric claimed the top spot on the global list. The company opened a 10,500-square-foot, state-of-the-art Energy Innovation Center in Houston earlier this year.

10+ must-attend Houston energy transition events happening in Q3 2025

Must-Attend Meetings

Editor's note: Q3 is here, and with it, a full slate of must-attend events for Houston energy professionals. On the agenda are casual mixers, exciting showcases, week-long happenings, and more. Mark your calendars for these top Houston energy transition events coming up from July to September 2025, and begin registering today. Please note: this article may be updated to include additional events.

July 17 — TEX-E Energy, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship networking mixer

The Texas Exchange for Energy & Climate Entrepreneurship hosts this casual networking event to connect the Houston energy and climate tech ecosystem.

This event takes place Thursday, July 17 at 5 pm at Second Draught. Click here to register.

July 29 — Center for Houston's Future presents Summer Salon

This year's Summer Salon breakfast program is titled "Digital Technology and AI: Challenges and Opportunities for Driving Energy Innovation." Sponsored by bp, it will feature a timely conversation about the intersection of digital technology (including AI) and energy innovation.

This event takes place Tuesday, July 29 at 7:30 am at Junior League of Houston. Click here to register.

August 21 — Transition on Tap

Greentown Labs’ signature networking event returns in August to foster conversations and connections within Houston's climate and energy transition ecosystem. Entrepreneurs, investors, students, philanthropists, and more are invited to attend, meet colleagues, discuss solutions, and engage with the growing community.

This event takes place Thursday, August 21 at 5:30 pm at Greentown Labs. Click here to register.

August 22 – Determined to Lead Women Lunch: Investing Through Market Cycles with Ellen Wilkirson

EnergyTech Nexus hosts a monthly Determined to Lead Women’s Lunch as part of its ongoing efforts to create safe spaces for women leaders in the energy transition to connect, learn, and lead. The August session features Ellen Wilkirson, principal at Rev Innovations. With deep experience across traditional and transition energy sectors, Wilkirson will share how she’s approached investing through multiple market and commodity cycles and what it means to be a clean energy investor in today’s evolving landscape.

This event takes place Friday, August 22 at 1 pm. Click here to register.

August 27-28 — 6th Texas Energy Forum 2025

The 6th Texas Energy Forum will dive deep into the strategies, policies, and innovative solutions that reinforce energy security for the United States and its allies and fuel economic growth — centered on Texas’ pivotal role in the global energy landscape. Key discussions will address the future of regulatory reform, tariffs, and tax incentives; advancements in oil, gas, and LNG markets; the expansion of power generation; and breakthroughs in EVs and charging infrastructure. This year's topic is "Texas: The Energy Innovation Powerhouse."

This event begins Wednesday, August 27 at the Petroleum Club of Houston. Click here to register.

September 3-4 — 11th Annual Digitalization in Oil & Gas Conference

This conference will delve deep into the intersection of digitalization and decarbonization, highlighting the transformation required for the oil and gas sector to stay relevant, resilient, and achieve business value. This year, the focus is on leveraging AI and generative AI, driving sustainability and workforce development, and achieving operational excellence through digitalization. Key objectives include building future-ready facilities, planning for a lower carbon market, and realizing business value through innovative solutions.

This event begins Wednesday, September 3 at Hilton Americas Houston. Click here to register.

September 8-10 — SPE Energy Transition Symposium

The SPE Energy Transition Symposium brings together professionals from multiple disciplines across the energy sector, offering a comprehensive platform for learning, networking, and collaboration. Its primary objective is to facilitate the exchange and dissemination of knowledge drawn from the insights of industry leaders, technical experts, academics, practitioners, representatives from the financial community, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) leaders. This year's symposium is titled "Synergizing Innovation and Collaboration: Transforming Energy for a Sustainable Future."

This event begins Monday, September 8 at Houston Marriott Sugar Land. Click here to register.

September 15-19 — Houston Energy & Climate Week

Houston Energy & Climate Week utilizes Houston's potential to propel global climate action. This gathering welcomes an unparalleled selection of global energy leaders and communities, giving participants opportunities to interact and discuss capital, technology, workforce, and policy needs. It is organized by Allies in Energy, a nonprofit dedicated to building energy and climate literacy and a pathway to the workforce of the future.

Following an invite-only dinner on Sunday, September 14, this event begins with Opening Ceremonies on Monday, September 15. Click here for details.

September 15-19 — Houston Energy + Climate Startup Week

Launched in 2024, the official Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week returns for its second year, showcasing how Houston is developing and scaling real solutions for the dual challenge of meeting growing global energy demand while reducing carbon emissions. Join leading energy and climate venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups from around the world for this showcase of the most innovative companies and technologies that are transforming the energy industry while driving a sustainable, low-carbon energy future.

This event begins Monday, September 15 with a kickoff event at the Ion Plaza. Click here for details.

September 16 — Pilotathon 2025 & Company Showcase

EnergyTech Nexus hosts its annual Pilotathon — a high-impact event designed to fast-track pilot deployments for climate and energy tech startups. Expect a full day of curated startup pitches, a 50-plus company innovation showcase, and direct engagement with corporate partners, investors, and ecosystem leaders. The afternoon will also feature participants from the ETN CoPilot Accelerator. Startup applications and event registration is now open at www.pilotathon.com.

This event takes place Tuesday, September 16 at 8 am at GreenStreet. Click here to register.

September 18 — ACCEL Year 3 Showcase

As part of Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week, Greentown Labs will celebrate ACCEL, an accelerator program for startups led by BIPOC and other underrepresented founders. The third ACCEL cohort will present a showcase featuring their technologies, what they’ve accomplished in the first six months of the program, and where they’re headed next. Attendees will also have the opportunity to network with industry leaders who are passionate about and building an inclusive and sustainable future.

This event takes place Thursday, September 18 at 5 pm at Greentown Labs. Click here to register.

Greentown Labs adds 6 Texas clean energy startups to Houston incubator

green team

Greentown Labs announced the six startups to join its Houston community in Q2 of 2025.

The companies are among a group of 13 that joined the climatetech incubator, which is co-located in Houston and Boston, in the same time period. The companies that joined the Houston-based lab specialize in a number of clean energy applications, from long-duration energy storage systems to 3D solar towers.

The new Houston members include:

  • Encore CO2, a Louisiana-based company that converts CO2 into ethanol, acetate, ethylene and other sustainable chemicals through its innovative electrolysis technology
  • Janta Power, a Dallas-based company with proprietary 3D-solar-tower technology that deploys solar power vertically rather than flatly, increasing power and energy generation
  • Licube, an Austin-based company focused on sustainable lithium recovery from underutilized sources using its proprietary and patented electrodialysis technology
  • Newfound Materials, a Houston-based company that has developed a predictive engine for materials R&D
  • Pix Force, a Houston-based company that develops AI algorithms to inspect substations, transmission lines and photovoltaic plants using drones
  • Wattsto Energy, a Houston-based manufacturer of a long-duration-energy-storage system with a unique hybrid design that provides fast, safe, sustainable and cost-effective energy storage at the microgrid and grid levels

Seven other companies will join Greentown Boston's incubator. See the full list here.

Greentown Houston also added five startups to its local lab in Q1. Read more about the companies here.