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Is the Texas power grid prepared for summer 2025 heat?

Guest Column

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

  • Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
  • Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
  • Adjust transmission cost allocations
  • Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Heat dome moves into Texas with record highs expected

stay cool

A heat dome that has led to nearly 90 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures in Phoenix moved into Texas Wednesday, with record highs expected to fall by the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, energy demand in Texas hit an unofficial all-time high Tuesday, according to data from the state’s grid operator.

A major heat alert is in place for Texas, reflecting what the weather service called “rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief.” An extreme heat alert was issued for eastern New Mexico.

A heat dome is a slow moving, upper-level high pressure system of stable air and a deep layer of high temperatures, meteorologist Bryan Jackson said.

“It is usually sunny, the sun is beating down, it is hot and the air is contained there,” Jackson said. “There are dozen or so sites that are setting daily records ... mostly over Texas.”

Record high temperatures were expected in cities such as Corpus Christi, San Antonio and Amarillo. In Phoenix, monsoon rains have provided brief respites since Sunday, although daytime highs continue to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius).

The dome was expected to move into western Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico beginning Saturday, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley, where it was forecast to weaken slightly, Jackson said.

About 14.7 million people are under an excessive heat warning, with heat indexes expected at 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) and above. Another 10 million people were under a heat advisory.

There were 38 heat-related deaths in Texas from January through July, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services, and hundreds have already sought emergency care, according to MedStar ambulance in Fort Worth, Texas. The service responded to 286 heat-related calls during the first 20 days of August, about 14 per day, compared to about 11 per day in August 2023, according to public information officer Desiree Partain.

Austin-Travis County EMS Capt. Christa Stedman said calls about heat-related illness in the area around the Texas state Capitol since April 1 are up by about one per day compared with a year ago, though July was somewhat milder this year.

"The vast majority of what we see is heat exhaustion, which is good because we catch it before it’s heat stroke, but it’s bad because people are not listening to the red flags,” such as heat cramps in the arms, legs or stomach warning that the body is becoming too hot, Stedman said.

Despite the record heat in Texas, residents haven't been asked to cut back on their energy use like in years prior. This contrasts with the 11 conservation notices issued last year. One reason is that the agency, which manages Texas' independent energy grid and deregulated providers, has improved the grid's capabilities with the addition of more than 15 gigawatts of power supply since last summer.

Although the agency has gotten better at controlling the demands of the grid, their criteria for when to notify residents to conserve energy has also changed, Doug Lewin, an energy consultant and president of Stoic Energy said.

Lewin suspects it’s because they’re ineffective and unpopular.

“I don’t think they’re seeing all that much reduction when they give notices,” Lewin said of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In fact public uproar against the conservation warnings has led to the agency sending fewer of them, he continued.

“There are many factors that ERCOT operations take into consideration when determining the need to issue conservation, case by case depending on conditions at the time,” communications manager Trudi Webster said on the matter.

“It’s been a hot summer, but this one does stand out in terms of extremes,” said Jackson, the meteorologist.

Earlier this month, about 100 people were sickened and 10 were hospitalized due to extreme heat at a Colorado air show and at least two people have died due to the heat in California's Death Valley National Park.

Globally, a string of 13 straight months with a new average heat record came to an end this past July as the natural El Nino climate pattern ebbed, the European climate agency Copernicus announced Thursday.

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Rice University partners with Australian co. to boost mineral processing, battery innovation

critical mineral partnership

Rice University and Australian mineral exploration company Locksley Resources have joined together in a research partnership to accelerate the development of antimony processing in the U.S. Antimony is a critical mineral used for defense systems, electronics and battery storage.

Rice and Locksley will work together to develop scalable methods for extracting and utilizing antimony. Currently, the U.S. relies on imports for nearly all refined antimony, according to Rice.

Locksley will fund the research and provide antimony-rich feedstocks and rare earth elements from a project in the Mojave Desert. The research will explore less invasive hydrometallurgical techniques for antimony extraction and explore antimony-based materials for use in batteries and other energy storage applications.

“This strategic collaboration with Rice marks a pivotal step in executing Locksley’s U.S. strategy,” Nathan Lude, chairman of Locksley Resources, said in a news release. “By fast-tracking our research program, we are helping rebuild downstream capacity through materials innovation that the country urgently requires.”

Pulickel Ajayan, the Benjamin M. and Mary Greenwood Anderson Professor of Materials Science and Nanoengineering at Rice, is the principal investigator of the project.

“Developing scalable, domestic pathways for antimony processing is not only a scientific and engineering challenge but also a national strategic priority,” Ajayan said in the news release. “By combining Rice’s expertise in advanced materials with Locksley’s resources, we can address a critical supply chain gap and build collaborations that strengthen U.S. energy resilience.”

The Rice Advanced Materials Institute (RAMI) will play a major role in supporting the advancement of technology and energy-storage applications.

“This partnership aligns with our mission to lead in materials innovations that address national priorities,” Lane Martin, director of RAMI, said in a news release. “By working with Locksley, we are helping to build a robust domestic supply chain for critical materials and support the advancement of next-generation energy technologies.”

Expert examines how far Texas has come in energy efficiency

Guest Column

Texas leads the nation in energy production, providing about one-fourth of the country’s domestically produced primary energy. It is also the largest energy-consuming state, accounting for about one-seventh of the nation’s total energy use, and ranks sixth among the states in per capita energy consumption.

However, because Texas produces significantly more energy than it consumes, it stands as the nation’s largest net energy supplier. October marked National Energy Awareness Month, so this is an ideal time to reflect on how far Texas has come in improving energy efficiency.

Progress in Clean Energy and Grid Resilience

Texas continues to lead the nation in clean energy adoption and grid modernization, particularly in wind and solar power. With over 39,000 MW of wind capacity, Texas ranks first in the country in wind-powered electricity generation, now supplying more than 10% of the state’s total electricity.

This growth was significantly driven by the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which requires utility companies to produce new renewable energy in proportion to their market share. Initially, the RPS aimed to generate 10,000 MW of renewable energy capacity by 2025. Thanks to aggressive capacity building, this ambitious target was reached much earlier than anticipated.

Solar energy is also expanding rapidly, with Texas reaching 16 GW of solar capacity as of April 2024. The state has invested heavily in large-scale solar farms and supportive policies, contributing to a cleaner energy mix.

Texas is working to integrate both wind and solar to create a more resilient and cost-effective grid. Efforts to strengthen the grid also include regulatory changes, winterization mandates, and the deployment of renewable storage solutions.

While progress is evident, experts stress the need for continued improvements to ensure grid reliability during extreme weather events, when we can’t rely on the necessities for these types of energy sources to thrive. To put it simply, the sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow.

Federal Funding Boosts Energy Efficiency

In 2024, Texas received $22.4 million, the largest share of a $66 million federal award, from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency Revolving Loan Fund Capitalization Grant Program.

The goal of this funding is to channel federal dollars into local communities to support energy-efficiency projects through state-based loans and grants. According to the DOE, these funds can be used by local businesses, homeowners, and public institutions for energy audits, upgrades, and retrofits that reduce energy consumption.

The award will help establish a new Texas-based revolving loan fund modeled after the state’s existing LoanSTAR program, which already supports cost-effective energy retrofits for public facilities and municipalities. According to the Texas Comptroller, as of 2023, the LoanSTAR program had awarded more than 337 loans totaling over $600 million.

In addition to expanding the revolving loan model, the state plans to use a portion of the DOE funds to offer free energy audit services to the public. The grant program is currently under development.

Building on this momentum, in early 2025, Texas secured an additional $689 million in federal funding to implement the Home Energy Performance-Based, Whole House (HOMES) rebate program and the Home Electrification and Application Rebate (HEAR) program.

This investment is more than five times the state’s usual energy efficiency spending. Texas’s eight private Transmission and Distribution Utilities typically spend about $110 million annually on such measures. The state will have multiple years to roll out both the revolving loan and rebate programs.

However, valuable federal tax incentives for energy-efficient home improvements are set to expire on December 31, 2025, including:

  • The Energy Efficiency Home Improvement Credit allows homeowners to claim up to $3,200 per year in federal income tax credits, covering 30% of the cost of eligible upgrades, such as insulation, windows, doors, and high-efficiency heating and cooling systems.
  • The Residential Clean Energy Credit provides a 30% income tax credit for the installation of qualifying clean energy systems, including rooftop solar panels, wind turbines, geothermal heat pumps, and battery storage systems.

As these incentives wind down, the urgency grows for Texas to build on the positive gains from the past several years despite reduced federal funding. The state has already made remarkable strides in clean energy production, grid modernization, and energy-efficiency investments, but the path forward requires a strategic and inclusive approach to energy planning. Through ongoing state-federal collaboration, community-driven initiatives, and forward-looking policy reforms, Texas can continue its progress, ensuring that future energy challenges are met with sustainable and resilient solutions.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

Meta to buy all power from new ENGIE Texas solar farm

power purchase

Meta, the parent company of social media platform Facebook, has agreed to buy all of the power from a $900 million solar farm being developed near Abilene by Houston-based energy company ENGIE North America.

The 600-megawatt Swenson Ranch solar farm, located in Stonewall County, will be the largest one ever built in the U.S. by ENGIE. The solar farm is expected to go online in 2027.

Meta will use electricity generated by the solar farm to power its U.S. data centers. All told, Meta has agreed to purchase more than 1.3 gigawatts of renewable energy from four ENGIE projects in Texas.

“This project marks an important step forward in the partnership between our two companies and their shared desire to promote a sustainable and competitive energy model,” Paulo Almirante, ENGIE’s senior executive vice president of renewable and flexible power, said in a news release.

In September, ENGIE North America said it would collaborate with Prometheus Hyperscale, a developer of sustainable liquid-cooled data centers, to build data centers at ENGIE-owned renewable energy and battery storage facilities along the I-35 corridor in Texas. The corridor includes Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio and Waco.

The first projects under the ENGIE-Prometheus umbrella are expected to go online in 2026.

ENGIE and Prometheus said their partnership “brings together ENGIE's deep expertise in renewables, batteries, and energy management and Prometheus' highly efficient liquid-cooled data center design to meet the growing demand for reliable, sustainable compute capacity — particularly for AI and other high-performance workloads.”
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