Is the Texas power grid prepared for summer 2025 heat?

Guest Column

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
Adjust transmission cost allocations
Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

---

Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

From Your Site Articles

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Heat dome moves into Texas with record highs expected

stay cool

A heat dome that has led to nearly 90 consecutive days of triple-digit temperatures in Phoenix moved into Texas Wednesday, with record highs expected to fall by the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Meanwhile, energy demand in Texas hit an unofficial all-time high Tuesday, according to data from the state’s grid operator.

A major heat alert is in place for Texas, reflecting what the weather service called “rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief.” An extreme heat alert was issued for eastern New Mexico.

A heat dome is a slow moving, upper-level high pressure system of stable air and a deep layer of high temperatures, meteorologist Bryan Jackson said.

“It is usually sunny, the sun is beating down, it is hot and the air is contained there,” Jackson said. “There are dozen or so sites that are setting daily records ... mostly over Texas.”

Record high temperatures were expected in cities such as Corpus Christi, San Antonio and Amarillo. In Phoenix, monsoon rains have provided brief respites since Sunday, although daytime highs continue to top 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius).

The dome was expected to move into western Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico beginning Saturday, then into the mid-Mississippi Valley, where it was forecast to weaken slightly, Jackson said.

About 14.7 million people are under an excessive heat warning, with heat indexes expected at 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 degrees Celsius) and above. Another 10 million people were under a heat advisory.

There were 38 heat-related deaths in Texas from January through July, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services, and hundreds have already sought emergency care, according to MedStar ambulance in Fort Worth, Texas. The service responded to 286 heat-related calls during the first 20 days of August, about 14 per day, compared to about 11 per day in August 2023, according to public information officer Desiree Partain.

Austin-Travis County EMS Capt. Christa Stedman said calls about heat-related illness in the area around the Texas state Capitol since April 1 are up by about one per day compared with a year ago, though July was somewhat milder this year.

"The vast majority of what we see is heat exhaustion, which is good because we catch it before it’s heat stroke, but it’s bad because people are not listening to the red flags,” such as heat cramps in the arms, legs or stomach warning that the body is becoming too hot, Stedman said.

Despite the record heat in Texas, residents haven't been asked to cut back on their energy use like in years prior. This contrasts with the 11 conservation notices issued last year. One reason is that the agency, which manages Texas' independent energy grid and deregulated providers, has improved the grid's capabilities with the addition of more than 15 gigawatts of power supply since last summer.

Although the agency has gotten better at controlling the demands of the grid, their criteria for when to notify residents to conserve energy has also changed, Doug Lewin, an energy consultant and president of Stoic Energy said.

Lewin suspects it’s because they’re ineffective and unpopular.

“I don’t think they’re seeing all that much reduction when they give notices,” Lewin said of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. In fact public uproar against the conservation warnings has led to the agency sending fewer of them, he continued.

“There are many factors that ERCOT operations take into consideration when determining the need to issue conservation, case by case depending on conditions at the time,” communications manager Trudi Webster said on the matter.

“It’s been a hot summer, but this one does stand out in terms of extremes,” said Jackson, the meteorologist.

Earlier this month, about 100 people were sickened and 10 were hospitalized due to extreme heat at a Colorado air show and at least two people have died due to the heat in California's Death Valley National Park.

Globally, a string of 13 straight months with a new average heat record came to an end this past July as the natural El Nino climate pattern ebbed, the European climate agency Copernicus announced Thursday.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

10+ must-attend Houston energy events happening in Q1 2026

Mark Your Calendar

Editor's note: With the new year comes a new slate of must-attend events for those in the Houston energy sector. We've rounded up a host of events to put on your calendar for Q1, including some that you can attend this month. Plus, other premier annual events will return in February and March 2026 and are currently offering early-bird, discounted registration. Book now.

Jan. 7-8 — AAPG Subsurface Energy to Power Workshop

This two-day AAPG workshop explores the expanding role of natural gas, geothermal, hydrogen, lithium, and uranium in accelerating electricity capacity. Participants will examine innovative solutions designed to reduce reliance on long-distance transmission lines, pipelines, and other costly infrastructure. Throughout the workshop, attendees will gain insight into both the technical deployment of subsurface resources and the land, legal, and permitting factors that influence project development.

This event begins Jan. 7 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 19-22 — PPIM 2026

The 38th international Pipeline Pigging & Integrity Management Conference and Exhibition takes place over four days at the George R. Brown Convention Center and the Hilton Americas. This industry forum is devoted exclusively to pigging for pipeline maintenance and inspection, engineering assessment, repair, risk management, and NDE. Two days of courses will take place Jan. 19-20, followed by the conference on Jan. 21-22, and the exhibition running Jan. 20-22. Register here.

Jan. 22 — MicroSeismic - Romancing Energy Forum

This forum will feature raw, unfiltered stories from the pioneers who changed the trajectory of American Shale. Attendees will gain insights into the playbooks, decisions, data, and lessons learned behind the biggest discoveries and engineering triumphs in modern energy. Keynote speakers include Tom and Diane Gates of Gates Ranch.

This event begins at 8 am on Jan. 22 at Norris Conference Center at CityCentre. Register here.

Jan. 22 — Houston Downton Luncheon: Beyond the Barrel: Pricing, Transition, and Geopolitics in 2026

Women's Energy Network Houston Chapter hosts this January lunch and learn featuring guest speaker Ha Nguyen with S&P Global Energy. Nguyen will discuss the global energy outlook for 2026, with a focus on strategic drivers, such as decarbonization and EV adoption, and a look at Houston's crucial role in the future of the U.S. market.

This event begins at 11:30 am on Jan. 22 at The Houston Club. Register here.

Feb. 18-20 — NAPE Summit Week 2026

NAPE is the energy industry’s marketplace for the buying, selling, and trading of prospects and producing properties. NAPE brings together all industry disciplines and companies of all sizes, and in 2026 it will introduce three new hubs — offshore, data centers, and critical minerals — for more insights, access, and networking opportunities. The event includes a summit, exhibition, and more.

This event begins Feb. 18 at George R. Brown Convention Center. Register here.

Feb. 24-26 — 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference

The 2026 Energy HPC & AI Conference marks the 19th year for the Ken Kennedy Institute to convene experts from the energy industry, academia, and national labs to share breakthroughs for HPC and AI technologies. The conference returns to Houston with engaging speaker sessions, a technical talk program, networking receptions, add-on workshops, and more.

This event begins Feb. 24 at Rice University's BRC. Register here.

Feb. 26 — February Transition on Tap

Mix and mingle at Greentown Labs' first Transition on Tap event of the year. Meet the accelerator's newest startup members, who are working on innovations ranging from methane capture to emissions-free manufacturing processes to carbon management.

This event begins at 5:30 pm on Feb. 26 at Greentown Labs Houston. Register here.

March 2-4 — The Future Energy Summit

The Future Energy Summit is a premier global event bringing together visionaries, industry leaders, and energy experts to shape the future of energy. The second edition of the conference will provide a platform for groundbreaking discussions, cutting-edge technologies, and transformative strategies that will accelerate the energy transition.

This event begins March 2. Register here.

March 10-12 — World Hydrogen & Carbon Americas

S&P Global Energy brings together two leading events — Carbon Management Americas and World Hydrogen North America — to form a new must-attend event for those in the hydrogen and carbon industries. More than 800 senior leaders from across the energy value chain will attend this event featuring immersive roundtable discussions, hands-on training, real-world case studies, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

This event begins March 10 at Marriott Marquis Houston. Register here.

March 23-27 — CERAWeek 2026

CERAWeek 2026 will focus on "Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics." The industry's foremost thought leaders will convene in Houston to cultivate relationships and exchange transformative ideas during the annual event. Through the lens of 16 dynamic themes, CERAWeek 2026 will explore breakthroughs, cross-industry connections, and powerful partnerships that are accelerating the transformation of the global energy system.

This event begins March 23. Register here.

Japanese company launches solar module manufacturing at Houston-area plant

solar plant

A local subsidiary of a Japanese solar equipment manufacturer recently began producing solar modules at a new plant in Humble.

TOYO Co. Ltd.’s TOYO Solar LLC subsidiary can produce 1 gigawatt worth of solar modules per year at a 567,140-square-foot plant it leases in Lovett Industrial’s Nexus North Logistics Park on Greens Road. TOYO Solar’s next phase will accommodate 2.5 gigawatts’ worth of solar module manufacturing. The subsidiary eventually plans to expand manufacturing capacity to 6.5 gigawatts.

For now, TOYO Solar operates only one assembly line at the Humble plant. Once TOYO Solar has five assembly lines up and running, it could employ as many as 750 manufacturing workers there, according to Connect CRE.

TOYO says the plant enlarges its U.S. footprint “to be closer to the majority of its clients, meet the demand for American-made solar panels, and contribute to the growing demand for secure, sustainable energy solutions as demands on the grid continue to rise.”

Last month, TOYO purchased the remaining 24.99 percent stake in TOYO Solar to make it a wholly owned subsidiary. TOYO entered the Houston-area market through its 2024 acquisition of a majority stake in Solar Plus Technology Texas LLC.

Record $9.6M fine for Houston-based co. after Gulf of Mexico oil spill

In the news

Pipeline safety regulators on Monday, January 5, assessed their largest fine ever against the company responsible for leaking 1.1 million gallons of oil into the Gulf off the coast of Louisiana in 2023. But the $9.6 million fine isn’t likely to be a major burden for Third Coast to pay.

This single fine is close to the normal total of $8 million to $10 million in all fines that the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration hands out each year. But Third Coast has a stake in some 1,900 miles of pipelines, and in September, the Houston-based company announced that it had secured a nearly $1 billion loan.

Pipeline Safety Trust Executive Director Bill Caram said this spill “resulted from a company-wide systemic failure, indicating the operator’s fundamental inability to implement pipeline safety regulations,” so the record fine is appropriate and welcome.

“However, even record fines often fail to be financially meaningful to pipeline operators. The proposed fine represents less than 3% of Third Coast Midstream’s estimated annual earnings,” Caram said. “True deterrence requires penalties that make noncompliance more expensive than compliance.”

The agency said Third Coast didn't establish proper emergency procedures, which is part of why the National Transportation Safety Board found that operators failed to shut down the pipeline for nearly 13 hours after their gauges first hinted at a problem. PHMSA also said the company didn't adequately assess the risks or properly maintain the 18-inch Main Pass Oil Gathering pipeline.

The agency said the company “failed to perform new integrity analyses or evaluations following changes in circumstances that identified new and elevated risk factors” for the pipeline.

That echoed what the NTSB said in its final report in June, that “Third Coast missed several opportunities to evaluate how geohazards may threaten the integrity of their pipeline. Information widely available within the industry suggested that land movement related to hurricane activity was a threat to pipelines.”

The NTSB said the leak off the coast of Louisiana was the result of underwater landslides, caused by hazards such as hurricanes, that Third Coast, the pipeline owner, failed to address despite the threats being well known in the industry.

A Third Coast spokesperson said the company has been working to address regulators' concerns about the leak, so it was taken aback by some of the details the agency included in its allegations and the size of the fine.

“After constructive engagement with PHMSA over the last two years, we were surprised to see aspects of the recent allegations that we believe are inaccurate and exceed established precedent. We will address these concerns with the agency moving forward," the company spokesperson said.

The amount of oil spilled in this incident was far less than the 2010 BP oil disaster, when 134 million gallons were released in the weeks following an oil rig explosion, but it could have been much smaller if workers in the Third Coast control room had acted more quickly, the NTSB said.

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME