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Houston researchers: Texas to face gridlock challenges with reducing emissions in transportation

One of the biggest obstacles to Texas' net-zero goals is its transportation sector, according to Houston research. Photo via UH.edu

A new report found that one of Texas' biggest roadblocks with reducing emissions is its transportation sector.

In its white paper series, the University of Houston's energy researchers found that — unless something changes — the Lone Star State is not likely to hit its carbon neutrality goals by 2050 within the transportation sector.

“What would it take to make the Texas transportation sector net zero by 2050?” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, UH vice president for energy and innovation, says in a news release. “The answer is a miracle, policy interventions that start as soon as possible, and somewhere between 30 to 50 billion dollars of public money between now and 2050 and at least an equal match from the private sector.”

According to the Net Zero in Texas: The Role of Transportation report, over 230 million metric tons of carbon dioxide gas is released from Texas roads each year. By 2050, estimates show that the remaining gasoline and diesel vehicles on the road will still be contributing about 40 million metric tons of emissions. Krishnamoorti collaborated with UH Energy researcher Aparajita Datta on a white paper.

“The future is crucial not only for Texas, where carbon emissions hinge on transportation solutions but also for our nation. Emissions transcend state lines and considering the size of Texas, its growing population and strong industry, the impact is significant,” Krishnamoorti adds.

Some of the challenges the state faces, per the report, hinge on electric vehicle adoption, which has been slow for a variety of reasons. One is the lack of EV production materials, such as lithium, cobalt, copper, manganese and graphite, due to increased demand, which is slated to be increased by 140 to 500 percent.

The EV workforce development also poses a challenge. Right now, hourly wages in the traditional auto sector range from $26 to $60, but most jobs in the EV industry, which are not unionized, range from $17 to $21 per hour.

The call for EV infrastructure is also estimated to be high. Per a news release about the report, "the change will require an annual expenditure of $250 million to $640 million for Level-2 (L2) charging stations and between $500 million and $1.3 billion for DC Fast Charging (DCFC) stations in 2040."

The transition will include an addition of 40,000 and 180,000 jobs in Texas between now and 2050, as well as an estimated $104 billion addition in public health benefits for Texans – fewer deaths, fewer asthma attacks and fewer sick days, according to the study.

“It is evident that decarbonizing Texas’ transportation sector will be a significant challenge and relying solely on consumer behavior to change is unrealistic,” Krishnamoorti says in the release. “We need robust policies to drive the state’s transportation electrification. Let’s acknowledge the journey ahead; federal mandates alone will not guide us to net zero by 2050. Texas needs to act now.”

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A View From HETI

Shell has entered a 15-year agreement to be the first offtaker to receive electrons from Fervo Energy's flagship geothermal development in Beaver County, Utah, known as Cape Station. Photo via fervoenergy.com

Beginning in 2026, Shell will be able to apply 31 megawatts of 24/7 carbon-free geothermal power to its customers thanks to a new 15-year power purchase agreement with Houston next-gen geothermal development company Fervo Energy.

“This agreement demonstrates that Fervo is stepping up to meet the moment,” Dawn Owens, VP, Head of Development & Commercial Markets at Fervo, said in a news release.

Shell will become the first offtaker to receive electrons from Fervo's flagship geothermal development in Beaver County, Utah’s Phase I of Cape Station. Cape Station is currently one of the world’s largest enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) developments, and the station will begin to deliver electricity to the grid in 2026.

Cape Station will increase from 400 MW to 500 MW, which is considered by the company a major accomplishment due to recent breakthroughs in Fervo’s field development strategy and well design. Fervo is now able to generate more megawatts per well by optimizing well spacing using fiber optic sensing, increasing casing diameter and implementing staggered bench development. This can allow for a 100 MW capacity increase without the need for additional drilling, according to the company.

With the addition of the new Shell deal, all 500 MW of capacity from Fervo’s Cape Station are now fully contracted. The deal also includes existing agreements, like Fervo’s PPAs with Southern California Edison and an expanded deal with Clean Power Alliance that adds 18 MW of carbon-free geothermal energy to the company’s existing PPA with Fervo.

“As customers seek out 24/7 carbon-free energy, geothermal is clearly an essential part of the solution,” Owens said in the release.

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