University of Houston selected for DOE-backed energy storage innovation initiative

tapping in

The University of Houston has joined the Energy Storage Research Alliance, one of two DOE-backed energy innovation hubs. Photo via Getty Images

The University of Houston was selected for a new energy storage initiative from the United States Department of Energy.

UH is part of the Energy Storage Research Alliance (ESRA), which is one of the two energy innovation hubs that the DOE is creating with $125 million. The DOE will provide up to $62.5 million in ESRA funding over a span of five years.

“To fuel innovation and cultivate a sustainable and equitable energy future, all universities, government entities, industry and community partners have to work together,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release. “No one person or entity can achieve all this by themselves. As the Energy University and a Carnegie-designated Tier One research university, located in Houston — a center of diverse talent and experience from across the energy industry — UH has a unique advantage of continuing to build on Houston’s global leadership and demonstrating solutions at scale.

The hubs will attempt to address battery challenges and encourage next-generation innovation, which include safety, high-energy density and long-duration batteries. The batteries will be made from inexpensive, abundant materials, per the release.

The work that will be done at ESRA and other hubs can optimize renewable energy usage, reduce emissions, enhance grid reliability, and assist in growing electric transportation, and other clean energy solutions.

ESRA will bring in 50 researchers from three national laboratories and 12 other universities, including UH. The deputy lead of the soft matter scientific thrust and the principal investigator for UH’s portion of the project will be Yan Yao. Yao is the Hugh Roy and Lillie Cranz Cullen Distinguished Professor at the UH Cullen College of Engineering and principal investigator at the Texas Center for Superconductivity.

UH professor Yan Yao will lead the school's participation in the program. Photo via UH.edu

ESRA will focus on three interconnected scientific thrusts and how they work together: liquids, soft matter, and condensed matter phases. Yao and his team have created next-generation batteries using low-cost organic materials. The team previously used quinones that can be synthesized from plants and food like soybeans to increase energy density, electrochemical stability and safety in the cathode. Yao’s team were the first to make solid-state sodium batteries by using multi-electron conformal organic cathodes. The cathodes had a demonstrated record of recharging stability of 500 charging cycles.

Robert A. Welch Assistant Professor of electrical and computer engineering at UH Pieremanuele Canepa, will serve as co-PI. Both will investigate phase transitions in multi-electron redox materials and conformable cathodes to enable solid-state batteries by “marrying Yao’s experimental lab work with Canepa’s expertise in computational material science,” according to the release.

Joe Powell, founding director of the UH Energy Transition Institute and a professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, will create a community benefit plan and develop an energy equity course.

“New energy infrastructure and systems can have benefits and burdens for communities,” Powell says in the release. “Understanding potential issues and partnering to develop best solutions is critical. We want everyone to be able to participate in the new energy economy and benefit from clean energy solutions.”

This project will be led by Argonne National Laboratory and co-led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

“This is a once in a lifetime opportunity,” adds Yao. “To collaborate with world-class experts to understand and develop new science and make discoveries that will lead to the next generation of batteries and energy storage concepts, and potentially game changing devices is exciting. It’s also a great opportunity for our students to learn from and work with top scientists in the country and be part of cutting-edge research.”

From Your Site Articles

Some of the key takeaways include strategies that include partnering for success, hands-on training programs, flexible education pathways, comprehensive support services, and early and ongoing outreach initiatives. Photo via Getty Images

New report maps Houston workforce development strategies as companies transition to cleaner energy

to-do list

The University of Houston’s Energy University latest study with UH’s Division of Energy and Innovation with stakeholders from the energy industry, academia have released findings from a collaborative white paper, titled "Workforce Development for the Future of Energy.”

UH Energy’s workforce analysis found that the greatest workforce gains occur with an “all-of-the-above” strategy to address the global shift towards low-carbon energy solutions. This would balance electrification and increased attention to renewables with liquid fuels, biomass, hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization and storage commonly known as CCUS, and carbon dioxide removal, according to a news release.

The authors of the paper believe this would support economic and employment growth, which would leverage workers from traditional energy sectors that may lose jobs during the transition.

The emerging hydrogen ecosystem is expected to create about 180,000 new jobs in the greater Houston area, which will offer an average annual income of approximately $75,000. Currently, 40 percent of Houston’s employment is tied to the energy sector.

“To sustain the Houston region’s growth, it’s important that we broaden workforce participation and opportunities,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president of energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release. “Ensuring workforce readiness for new energy jobs and making sure we include disadvantaged communities is crucial.”

“The greater Houston area’s journey towards a low-carbon future is both a challenge and an opportunity,” Krishnamoorti continues. “The region’s ability to adapt and lead in this new era will depend on its commitment to collaboration, innovation, and inclusivity. By preparing its workforce, engaging its communities, and leveraging its industrial heritage, we can redefine our region and continue to thrive as a global energy leader.”

The study was backed by federal funding from the Department of the Treasury through the State of Texas under the Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012.

The projects are among 16 other early-stage research projects at U.S. colleges and universities to receive a total of $17.4 million from the DOE's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Photo courtesy of University of Houston

3 Houston energy projects land $17.4M in federal funding for early-stage research

grants granted

Three projects from the University of Houston have been awarded funds from the U.S. Department of Energy for research on decarbonization and emissions.

“These three projects show the relevance and quality of the research at UH and our commitment to making a meaningful impact by addressing society’s needs and challenges by doing critical work that impacts the real world,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, says in a statement. “The success of these project could attract investment, create jobs, produce clean energy, save costs, reduce carbon emissions, and benefit not only the greater Houston area, but the Gulf Coast and beyond.”

The projects were selected under FECM’s University Training and Research program, which aims to support "research and development opportunities for traditionally underrepresented communities and tap into the innovative and diverse thinking of student researchers," according to an announcement from the DOE.

Here are the projects from UH and their funding amounts:

A Comprehensive Roadmap for Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy Projects in the Gulf of Mexico, $749,992 — Led by Ram Seetharam, UH Energy program officer, this project looks at ways to prolong the life of platforms, wells and pipelines in the Gulf Coast and will create a plan "covering technical, social, and regulatory aspects, as well as available resources," according to UH.

Houston Hydrogen Transportation Pilot, $750,000— Led by Christine Ehlig-Economides, Hugh Roy and Lillie Cranz Cullen, and managed by Joe Powell, this project will demonstrate the potential for a hydrogen refueling pilot in Houston. The first phase will create a system to optimize hydrogen and the second will create a workforce training network. The project is in collaboration with Prairie View A&M University.

Synergizing Minority-Serving Institution Partnerships for Carbon-Negative Geologic Hydrogen Production, $1.5 million — This project is in collaboration with Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and Texas Tech. The project will create a visiting scholars program for students from UH and TTU, who will spend one month per year at Stanford for three years. While in the program, students will focus on creating carbon-negative hydrogen from rocks beneath the Earth's surface. Kyung Jae Lee, associate professor in the Department of Petroleum Engineering at UH, is working alongside colleagues at TTU and Stanford on this project.

Other projects in the group come from the University of Texas at El Paso, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Tennessee State University, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Duke University and more.

Last year the DOE also awarded $2 million to Harris and Montgomery counties for projects that improve energy efficiency and infrastructure in the region. Click here to read about those projects.

The DOE also granted more than $10 million in funding to four carbon capture projects with ties to Houston last summer.

———

This article originally ran on InnovationMap.

Two UH-affiliated organizations scored DOE funding for advancing superconductivity projects. Photo courtesy of UH

University of Houston pockets $5M in DOE funding for superconductivity projects

taking on tape

A program within the U.S. Department of Energy has deployed $10 million into three projects working on superconducting tape innovation. Two of these projects are based on research from the University of Houston.

The DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, or ARPA-E, issued the funding through its Novel Superconducting Technologies for Conductors Exploratory Topic. Superconductivity — found only in certain materials — is a focus point for the DOE because it allows for the conduction of direct electric current without resistance or energy loss.

The demand for HTS, or high-temperature superconducting, tapes has risen as the country moves toward net-zero energy, driving up the cost of the materials, which are manufactured outside of the U.S. Here's where the DOE wants to help.

“If we can improve superconductors and manufacture them here in the United States, we can ultimately speed up the energy transition through enabling cost savings, faster production, and improved capability,” ARPA-E Director Evelyn N. Wang says in the DOE press release. “The teams [selected] will all pursue ARPA-E’s mission to lower emissions, bolster national security, increase energy independence and improve energy efficiency through their critical research.”

Selva Research Group, a team from UH focused on scaling HTS tape production and led by Venkat Selvamanickam, M.D. Anderson Chair Professor of Mechanical Engineering and director of the Advanced Manufacturing Institute, received a $2 million grant.

“Even though our superconducting tape is three times better than today’s industry products, for us to be able to take it to full-scale commercialization, we need to produce it faster and at a lower cost while maintaining its high quality,” Selvamanickam says in a UH press release. “This funding is to address this challenge and it’s an important step forward towards commercialization of our technology.”

The other UH-based team is MetOx Technologies, which secured $3 million in funding to support the advancement of its proprietary manufacturing technology for its HTS wire. Co-founded in 1998 by Alex Ignatiev, UH professor emeritus of physics and a fellow of the National Academy of Inventors, who also serves as the company’s chief science officer, MetOx plans to open its new manufacturing facility by the end of the year.

“This ARPA-E funding not only allows MetOx to advance its HTS wire fabrication process that I developed at UH, but also signifies the DOE’s recognition that MetOx is important,” Ignatiev says in the release. “The cost-effective HTS product that MetOx is developing at scale is critical to the national and global application of HTS for the world’s energy needs.”

The ARPA-E funding emphasizes the need for advancement of HTS tape innovation, and UH-affiliated groups receiving two of the three grants indicates the school is a leader in the space — something UH Vice President for Energy and Innovation Ramanan Krishnamoorti is proud of.

“These awards recognize the relevance and quality of the research at UH and our commitment to making a meaningful impact by addressing society’s needs and challenges by transitioning innovations out of research labs and into the real world,” Krishnamoorti says in the release.

High-temperature superconducting tapes have a high potential in the energy transition. Photo courtesy of UH

The PhD and doctoral students will each receive a one-year $12,000 fellowship, along with mentoring from experts at UH and Chevron. Photo via UH.edu

University of Houston names first group of Chevron-backed fellows

meet the chosen ones

The University of Houston has named eight graduate students to its first-ever cohort of UH-Chevron Energy Graduate Fellows.

The PhD and doctoral students will each receive a one-year $12,000 fellowship, along with mentoring from experts at UH and Chevron. Their work focuses on energy-related research in fields ranging from public policy to geophysics and math. The fellowship is funded by Chevron.

“The UH-Chevron Energy Fellowship program is an exciting opportunity for our graduate students to research the many critical areas that impact the energy industry, our communities and our global competitiveness,” Ramanan Krishnamoortil UH's Vice President for Energy and Innovation says in a statement.

“Today’s students not only recognize the importance of energy, but they are actively driving the push for affordable, reliable, sustainable and secure energy and making choices that clearly indicate that they are meaningfully contributing to the change,” he continues.

“We love that Chevron is sponsoring this group of fellows because it’s a fantastic way for us to get involved with the students who are working on some of the biggest problems we’ll face in society,” Chevron Technology Ventures President Jim Gable adds.

The 2023 UH-Chevron Energy Graduate Fellows are:

Kripa Adhikari, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in the Cullen College of Engineering. Her work focuses on thermal regulation in enhanced geothermal systems. She currently works under the mentorship of Professor Kalyana Babu Nakshatrala and previously worked as a civil engineer with the Nepal Reconstruction Authority.

Aparajita Datta, a researcher at UH Energy and a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science. Her work focuses on the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), a redistributive welfare policy designed to help households pay their energy bills. She holds a bachelor’s degree in computer science and engineering from the University of Petroleum and Energy Studies in India, and master’s degrees in energy management and public policy from UH. She also recently worked on a paper for UH about transportation emissions.

Chirag Goel, a Ph.D. student in materials science and engineering at UH. His work focuses on using High Temperature Superconductors (HTS) to optimize manufacturing processes, which he says can help achieve carbon-free economies by 2050. The work has uses in renewable energy generation, electric power transmission and advanced scientific applications.

Meghana Idamakanti, a third-year Ph.D. student in the William A. Brookshire Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering. Her work focuses on using electrically heated steam methane for cleaner hydrogen production. She received her bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University in India in 2020 and previously worked as a process engineering intern at Glochem Industries in India.

Erin Picton, an environmental engineering Ph.D. student in the Shaffer Lab at UH. Her work focuses on ways to increase the sustainability of lithium processing and reducing wasted water and energy. “I love the idea of taking waste and turning it into value,” she said in a statement. She has previously worked in collaboration with MIT and Greentown Labs, as chief sustainability officer of a Houston-based desalination startup; and as a visiting graduate researcher at Argonne National Lab and at INSA in Lyon, France.

Mohamad Sarhan, a Ph.D. student and a teaching assistant in the Department of Petroleum Engineering. His work focuses on seasonal hydrogen storage and the stability of storage candidates during hydrogen cycling. He holds a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree in petroleum engineering from Cairo University

Swapnil Sharma, a Ph.D. student in the William A. Brookshire Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering. His work has been funded by the Department of Energy and focuses on thermal modeling of large-scale liquid hydrogen storage tanks. He works with Professor Vemuri Balakotaiah. He holds bachelor's and master’s degrees in chemical engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT). He also developed one of the world’s highest fiber-count optical fiber cables while working in India and founded CovRelief, which helped millions of Indians find resources about hospital beds, oxygen suppliers and more during the pandemic.

Larkin Spires, who's working on her doctoral research in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences in the College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics. Her work focuses on a semi-empirical Brown and Korringa model for fluid substitution and the ties between geophysics and mathematics. She works under Professor John Castagna and holds a bachelor’s degree in math from Louisiana State University and a master’s degree in geophysics from UH.

Earlier this month Evolve Houston also announced its first-ever cohort of 13 microgrant recipients, whose work aims to make EVs and charging infrastructure more accessible in some of the city's more underserved neighborhoods.

The first phase of the Pelican Gulf Coast Carbon Removal project recently received nearly $4.9 million in grants. Photo via Getty Images

Louisiana DAC project supported by UH, Shell gets $4.9M in funding

closer look

The University of Houston is spilling details about its role in a potential direct air capture, or DAC, hub in Louisiana.

The first phase of the Pelican Gulf Coast Carbon Removal project recently received nearly $4.9 million in grants, including almost $3 million from the U.S. Department of Energy. Led by Louisiana State University, the Pelican consortium includes UH and Shell, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston.

The funding will go toward studying the feasibility of a DAC hub that would pull carbon dioxide from the air and either store it in deep geological formations or use it to manufacture various products, such as concrete.

“This support of development and deployment of direct air capture technologies is a vital part of carbon management and allows us to explore sustainable technological and commercial opportunities,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president for energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release.

Chemical engineer Joseph Powell, founding executive director of the university’s Energy Transition Institute, will be the primary leader of UH’s work on the Pelican project.

“DAC can be an important technology for addressing difficult-to-decarbonize sectors such as aviation and marine transport as well as chemicals, or to achieve negative emissions goals,” Powell says.

Powell, a fellow of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, was Shell’s first-ever chief scientist for chemical engineering from 2006 until his retirement in 2020. He joined Shell in 1988.

Shell is the Pelican project’s “technical delivery partner.”

“Advancing carbon management technologies is a critical part of the energy transition, and effectively scaling this technology will require continued collaboration, discipline, and innovation,” says Adam Prince, general manager of carbon capture storage strategy and growth at Shell.

Ad Placement 300x100

Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Property Showcase

METRO rolls out electric shuttles for downtown Houston commuters

seeing green

The innovative METRO microtransit program will be expanding to the downtown area, the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County announced on Monday.

“Microtransit is a proven solution to get more people where they need to go safely and efficiently,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said in a statement. “Connected communities are safer communities, and bringing microtransit to Houston builds on my promise for smart, fiscally-sound infrastructure growth.”

The program started in June 2023 when the city’s nonprofit Evolve Houston partnered with the for-profit Ryde company to offer free shuttle service to residents of Second and Third Ward. The shuttles are all-electric and take riders to bus stops, medical buildings, and grocery stores. Essentially, it works as a traditional ride-share service but focuses on multiple passengers in areas where bus access may involve hazards or other obstacles. Riders access the system through the Ride Circuit app.

So far, the microtransit system has made a positive impact in the wards according to METRO. This has led to the current expansion into the downtown area. The system is not designed to replace the standard bus service, but to help riders navigate to it through areas where bus service is more difficult.

“Integrating microtransit into METRO’s public transit system demonstrates a commitment to finding innovative solutions that meet our customers where they are,” said METRO Board Chair Elizabeth Gonzalez Brock. “This on-demand service provides a flexible, easier way to reach METRO buses and rail lines and will grow ridership by solving the first- and last-mile challenges that have hindered people’s ability to choose METRO.”

The City of Houston approved a renewal of the microtransit program in July, authorizing Evolve Houston to spend $1.3 million on it. Some, like council member Letitia Plummer, have questioned whether microtransit is really the future for METRO as the service cuts lines such as the University Corridor.

However, the microtransit system serves clear and longstanding needs in Houston. Getting to and from bus stops in the city with its long blocks, spread-out communities, and fickle pedestrian ways can be difficult, especially for poor or disabled riders. While the bus and rail work fine for longer distances, shorter ones can be underserved.

Even in places like downtown where stops are plentiful, movement between them can still involve walks of a mile or more, and may not serve for short trips.

“Our microtransit service is a game-changer for connecting people, and we are thrilled to launch it in downtown Houston,” said Evolve executive director Casey Brown. “The all-electric, on-demand service complements METRO’s existing fixed-route systems while offering a new solution for short trips. This launch marks an important milestone for our service, and we look forward to introducing additional zones in the new year — improving access to public transit and local destinations.”

———

This article originally ran on CultureMap.

Houston-based co. closes acquisition of 50 percent stake in Texas cogeneration facility

M&A Moves

Fengate Asset Management announced the financial close on the acquisition of a 50 percent interest in Freeport Power Limited, which owns a 440-megawatt cogeneration facility in Freeport, Texas.

FPL is located near the Freeport Energy Center, which is a 260-megawatt cogeneration facility that is currently owned and managed by Fengate. The two facilities work to provide cost-effective power and steam to Dow’s Freeport site, which is the largest integrated chemical manufacturing complex in the Western Hemisphere.

“We are thrilled to have closed this acquisition, which aligns with our strategy of acquiring behind-the-meter cogeneration projects with strong industrial partners like Dow,” Greg Calhoun, managing director of Infrastructure Investments at Fengate, says in a news release.

Fengate was able to acquire interest in FPL under a strategic operating partnership with asset manager Ironclad Energy. The partnership with Ironclad was established in 2022 to acquire and operate cogeneration, district energy and other power generation projects throughout North America.

“This is our second acquisition with Fengate, and we look forward to continuing our partnership to optimize and expand the portfolio,” Christopher Fanella, president and CFO of Ironclad Energy, says in the release.

Fengate opened its first U.S. office in 2017 in Houston.

“Combined heat and power projects like FPL will continue to play an important role in the U.S. power industry – especially for hard-to-abate industrial sectors – to ensure reliability, efficiency and affordability,” adds in the release.

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

"Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
"The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
"Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

------------

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

View All Listings

ENERGYCAPITALHTX EMAILS ARE AWESOME