Guest Column

Can the Texas grid handle extreme weather conditions across regions?

Texans are facing extreme weather at every turn — can the grid withstand these events? Photo via heimdallpower.com

From raging wildfires to dangerous dust storms and fierce tornadoes, Texans are facing extreme weather conditions at every turn across the state. Recently, thousands in the Texas Panhandle-South Plains lost power as strong winds ranging from 35 to 45 mph with gusts upwards of 65 mph blew through. Meanwhile, many North Texas communities are still reeling from tornadoes, thunderstorms, and damaging winds that occurred earlier this month.

A report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that Texas led the nation with the most billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2023, while a report from Texas A&M University researchers indicates Texas will experience twice as many 100-degree days, 30-50% more urban flooding and more intense droughts 15 years from now if present climate trends persist.

With the extreme weather conditions increasing in Texas and nationally, recovering from these disasters will only become harder and costlier. When it comes to examining the grid’s capacity to withstand these volatile changes, we’re past due. As of now, the grid likely isn’t resilient enough to make do, but there is hope.

Where does the grid stand now?

Investment from utility companies have resulted in significant improvements, but ongoing challenges remain, especially as extreme weather events become more frequent. While the immediate fixes have helped improve reliability for the time being, it won't be enough to withstand continuous extreme weather events. Grid resiliency will require ongoing efforts over one-time bandaid approaches.

What can be done?

Transmission and distribution infrastructure improvements must vary geographically because each region of Texas faces a different set of hazards. This makes a one-size-fits-all solution impossible. We’re already seeing planning and investment in various regions, but sweeping action needs to happen responsibly and quickly to protect our power needs.

After investigators determined that the 2024 Smokehouse Creek fire (the largest wildfire in Texas history) was caused by a decayed utility pole breaking, it raised the question of whether the Panhandle should invest more in wrapping poles with fire retardant material or covering wires so they are less likely to spark.

In response, Xcel Energy (the Panhandle’s version of CenterPoint) filed its initial System Resiliency Plan with the Public Utility Commission of Texas, with proposed investments to upgrade and strengthen the electric grid and ensure electricity for about 280,000 homes and businesses in Texas. Tailored to the needs of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, the $539 million resiliency plan will upgrade equipment’s fire resistance to better stand up to extreme weather and wildfires.

Oncor, whose territories include Dallas-Fort Worth and Midland-Odessa, analyzed more than two decades of weather damage data and the impact on customers to identify the priorities and investments needed across its service area. In response, it proposed investing nearly $3 billion to harden poles, replace old cables, install underground wires, and expand the company's vegetation management program.

What about Houston?

While installing underground wires in a city like Dallas makes for a good investment in grid resiliency, this is not a practical option in the more flood-prone areas of Southeast Texas like Houston. Burying power lines is incredibly expensive, and extended exposure to water from flood surges can still cause damage. Flood surges are also likely to seriously damage substations and transformers. When those components fail, there’s no power to run through the lines, buried or otherwise.

As part of its resiliency plan for the Houston metro area, CenterPoint Energy plans to invest $5.75 billion to strengthen the power grid against extreme weather. It represents the largest single grid resiliency investment in CenterPoint’s history and is currently the most expensive resiliency plan filed by a Texas electric utility. The proposal calls for wooden transmission structures to be replaced with steel or concrete. It aims to replace or strengthen 5,000 wooden distribution poles per year until 2027.

While some of our neighboring regions focus on fire resistance, others must invest heavily in strengthening power lines and replacing wooden poles. These solutions aim to address the same critical and urgent goal: creating a resilient grid that is capable of withstanding the increasingly frequent and severe weather events that Texans are facing.

The immediate problem at hand? These solutions take time, meaning we’re likely to encounter further grid instability in the near future.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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A View From HETI

A major heat alert is in place for Texas. Photo via Getty Images

Although the first official day of summer is not until June 20, Houstonians are already feeling the heat with record-breaking, triple-digit temperatures. The recent heatwave has many Texans wondering if the state’s grid will have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer.

How the Texas grid fared in summer 2024

To predict what could happen as we enter summer this year, it is essential to assess the state of the grid during summer 2024, and what, if anything, has been improved.

According to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, solar electricity generation and utility-scale batteries within the ERCOT power grid set records in summer 2024. On average, solar contributed nearly 25 percent of total power needs during mid-day hours between June 1 and August 31. In critical evening hours, when load (demand for electricity) remains elevated but solar output declines, discharge from batteries successfully filled the gap.

Texas added more battery storage capacity than any other state last year, and, excluding California, now has more battery capacity than the rest of the country combined. The state also added 3,410 megawatts of natural gas-fueled power last year. While we did experience major power losses as a result of extreme weather, such as the derecho in May and Hurricane Beryl in July, ERCOT did not have to issue a single conservation appeal last summer to ward off capacity-related outages--and it was the sixth-hottest summer on record.

Policymakers are also taking steps to pass legislation that will help stabilize the grid. During this year’s 89th legislative session, Senate Bill 6 (TX SB6) was introduced, which seeks to:

  • Improve ERCOT's load forecasting transparency
  • Enhance outage protections for residential consumers
  • Adjust transmission cost allocations
  • Bolster grid reliability

In essence, the bill is meant to balance business growth with grid reliability, ensuring that the state continues to be an attractive destination for industrial expansion while preventing reliability risks due to rapid demand increases.

Is the Texas grid prepared for summer 2025?

The good news is that the grid is predicted to be able to manage the energy demand this summer, but there is no guarantee that power disruptions will not happen.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has indicated that summer 2025 will likely be warmer and drier than average across most of Texas. Based on ERCOT data and weather projections, West Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metropolitan areas face the highest risk of outages.

While Texas is No. 1 in wind power and No. 2 in solar power, only behind California, there are valid concerns about heavy reliance on renewables when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, compounded by a lack of large-scale battery storage. Then, there’s the underlying cost and ecological footprint associated with the manufacturing of those batteries. Although solar and wind capacity continues to expand rapidly, integration challenges remain during peak demand periods, especially during the late afternoon when solar generation declines but air conditioning usage remains high.

Additional factors that contribute to the grid’s instability are that Texas faces a massive surge in demand for electricity due to an increase in large users like crypto mining facilities and data centers, as well as population growth. ERCOT predicts that Texas’ energy demand will nearly double by 2030, with power supply projected to fall short of peak demand in a worst-case scenario beginning in summer 2026.

Thanks to investments in solar power, battery storage, and traditional energy sources, ERCOT has made progress in improving grid reliability which indicates that, at least for this summer, energy load will be manageable. A combination of legislative action, strategic planning and technological innovation will need to continue to ensure that this momentum remains on a positive trajectory.

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Sam Luna is director at BKV Energy, where he oversees brand and go-to-market strategy, customer experience, marketing execution, and more.

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