mixed feelings

Texas-based Tesla posts first quarterly increase in deliveries, but shares slump

Shares of Tesla Inc. dropped sharply in morning trading yesterday. Photo via Tesla Motors/Instagram

Low interest financing, sweet lease deals, price cuts and free charging boosted Tesla’s global deliveries in the third quarter, the first increase this year for the electric vehicle maker.

The Austin, Texas, company said Wednesday that it delivered 462,890 vehicles from July through September, bolstered by loans as low as 1.99%, and $299 monthly leases on the Model 3, its least expensive vehicle. It delivered 435,059 vehicles during the same period last year.

The figures for July through September came in slightly higher than analyst estimates of 462,000 for the period, according to data provider FactSet.

However, shares of Tesla Inc. dropped sharply in morning trading, down nearly 4%.

The deliveries were “good and a step in the right direction,” wrote Dan Ives of Wedbush, but that there would be pressure on the company's stock because investors had been hoping for even better.

“Overall, this is a clear improvement from the first half and we believe getting in the range of 1.8 million for the year is still the key and important bogey,” Ives said.

Tesla has struggled much of the year to sell its aging model lineup as growth in electric vehicle sales in the U.S. and Europe slowed due to concerns with range, price and the ability to charge on trips.

Falling sales early in the year led to once-unheard of discounts for the automaker, cutting into its industry leading profit margins. Analysts estimated that Tesla’s average vehicle sales price was $42,500 for the third quarter, the lowest price in four years.

The sales decline likely will pull down third quarter earnings when they are announced on Oct. 23.

Tesla’s sales decline comes as competition is increasing from legacy and startup automakers, which are trying to nibble away at the company’s market share.

Nearly all of Tesla’s sales came from the smaller and less-expensive Models 3 and Y, with the company selling only 22,915 of its more expensive models that include X and S, as well as the new Cybertruck.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note to investors Tuesday that third-quarter sales would bring a rebound as China sales continue to increase and price and demand stabilizes.” As China continues to heat up on the demand story for Tesla with favorable leasing/financing terms and pent-up demand in the region, we are confident that we will see a significant growth figure in the region,” he wrote.

Europe will continue to be slow with macroeconomic pressures, and U.S. demand should stabilize, Ives wrote.

But BNP Paribas Exane said in an investor note that long term expectations of the market are somewhat high for Tesla. The company said its sales estimates for 2026 and 2027 “remain 10% to 15% below the street, respectively.”

Tesla is scheduled to unveil a purpose built robotaxi at an event next week.

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A View From HETI

ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call that the company is "concerned about the development of a broader market" for its low-carbon hydrogen plant in Baytown. Photo via exxonmobil.com

Spring-based ExxonMobil, the country’s largest oil and gas company, might delay or cancel what would be the world’s largest low-carbon hydrogen plant due to a significant change in federal law. The project carries a $7 billion price tag.

The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act created a new 10-year incentive, the 45V tax credit, for production of clean hydrogen. But under President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the window for starting construction of low-carbon hydrogen projects that qualify for the tax credit has narrowed. The Inflation Reduction Act mandated that construction start by 2033. But the Big Beautiful Bill switched the construction start time to early 2028.

“While our project can meet this timeline, we’re concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives,” ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said during the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call.

Woods said ExxonMobil is working to determine whether a combination of the 45Q tax credit for carbon capture projects and the revised 45V tax credit will help pave the way for a “broader” low-carbon hydrogen market.

“If we can’t see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won’t move forward with the [Baytown] project,” Woods said.

“We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line,” he added.

Woods said ExxonMobil is trying to nail down sales contracts connected to the project, including exports of ammonia to Asia and Europe and sales of hydrogen in the U.S.

ExxonMobil announced in 2022 that it would build the low-carbon hydrogen plant at its refining and petrochemical complex in Baytown. The company has said the plant is slated to go online in 2027 and 2028.

As it stands now, ExxonMobil wants the Baytown plant to produce up to 1 billion cubic feet of hydrogen per day made from natural gas, and capture and store more than 98 percent of the associated carbon dioxide. The company has said the project could store as much as 10 million metric tons of CO2 per year.

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