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Houston expert: Where is tech going? And can the energy industry keep up?

Scott Nyquist on the future of technology and how they affect the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

When smart people come together to consider the future, it’s worth listening to them.

Not long ago, McKinsey brought together more than 60 experts, and asked them to name the most important technology trends for business. They started from the premise that the next 10 years will see more technological progress than in the previous 100 years—and that this will up-end companies and industries everywhere.

“We believe the technology disruption over the next few years will be equal to the industrial revolution,” says Nicolaus Henke, a McKinsey alum who participated in this Tech Trends Index, which will be updated annually.

Here are some of the specific predictions. More than three-quarters of enterprise-generated data will be processed by edge or cloud computing by 2025. Ten percent of global GDP could be associated with blockchain by 2027. Renewables will produce 75 percent of global energy by 2050. 5G could reach 80 percent of the world’s population by 2030.

Time will tell if any or all of these are right; personally, I think renewables will have to wait a little longer for that kind of dominance. But by and large, I found the list, and the underlying thinking, compelling. And given my background in oil-and-gas, I thought it was striking that parts of the energy industry are working on just about every single one of them. Here is the list:

  • Next-level process automation and visualization.
  • Future of connectivity.
  • Distributed infrastructure.
  • Next-generation computing.
  • Applied artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Future of programming.
  • Trust architecture.
  • Bio revolution.
  • Next-generation materials.
  • Future of clean technologies.

Specifically, the first half-dozen items are all connected to digitization, and while the energy industry may not be at the cutting edge of development, it has a long track record of integrating these technologies and safely deploying them in order to deliver low-cost and reliable supply.

For example, the oil and gas industry has used AI for years to evaluate reservoirs and to plan drilling—one of many improvements over the traditional “one rock, two geologists, three opinions" way of doing things. And advanced materials, such as composites, engineered polymers, and low-density/high-strength metals and alloys are commonly used to lower costs and improve performance, for example in deep water oil and gas production and rotating equipment. As for connectivity, there is no shortage of commitment, but I think it is fair to say that the full potential has not been tapped.

McKinsey has estimated that making use of advanced connectivity alone—to optimize drilling and production, as well as to improve maintenance and field operations—could translate into $250 billion in value by 2030. That is something that the industry could really use, given recent price fluctuations. Taken as a whole, while the industry is nowhere near completing a full digital transformation, it is certainly well on its way.

As for the item most clearly connected to the industry — No. 10, clean technologies — at first glance, this might seem like bad news for traditional energy players. Not so fast. There are clear opportunities in areas such as clean coal, carbon capture, and energy storage. Moreover, other kinds of clean technologies can help the industry decarbonize its operations—something that will become more important as carbon regulation gets more stringent.

As I see it, then, while parts of the industry may seem old-school, it is actually heavily engaged in almost everything on the list. That should come as no surprise. From the first time oil was pumped in Pennsylvania in 1859, it has innovated and adapted to integrate technologies that improved productivity, safety, and environmental performance. In fact, it could it could even be said that the sector is part of what is often known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution—the convergence and interaction of physical, digital, and biological technologies.

I, and many others in the industry, believe that the ongoing energy transition will likely suppress demand for fossil fuels in the long term. But while the items on the Tech Trends Index, together and separately, will be disruptive, requiring big changes in business models and day-to-day operations, they could also help the industry to adapt.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 4, 2021.

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A View From HETI

Zeta Energy's batteries are targeted to power Stellantis electric vehicles by 2030. Image via Zeta Energy

Houston-based Zeta Energy Corp. has teamed up with an automaker to develop new battery technology.

Zeta Energy and Stellantis N.V. announced a joint development deal to advance battery cell technology for electric vehicle applications that will develop lithium-sulfur EV batteries with gravimetric energy density that can achieve a volumetric energy density comparable to today’s lithium-ion technology. The batteries are targeted to power Stellantis electric vehicles by 2030.

“The combination of Zeta Energy’s lithium-sulfur battery technology with Stellantis’ unrivaled expertise in innovation, global manufacturing and distribution can dramatically improve the performance and cost profile of electric vehicles while increasing the supply chain resiliency for batteries and EVs,” Tom Pilette, CEO of Zeta Energy, says in a news release.

The batteries will be produced using waste materials and methane that boasts lower CO2 emissions than any existing battery technology. Zeta Energy battery technology is intended to be manufacturable within existing gigafactory technology and would leverage an entire domestic supply chain in Europe or North America.

The technology can lead to a significantly lighter battery pack with the same usable energy as contemporary lithium-ion batteries. The companies believe this will enable greater range, improved handling and enhanced performance. The technology has the potential to improve fast-charging speed by up to 50 percent, which can make EV ownership easier.

Lithium-sulfur batteries are expected to cost less than half the price per kilowatt of current lithium-ion batteries according to a news release. Zeta has more than 60 patents on its proprietary lithium-sulfur anode and cathode technologies.

Lighter and more compact EV batteries have become an important design goal for vehicle designers and manufacturers. This objective is similar to what General Motors is doing with prismatic cell technology with LG Energy Solution.

“Our collaboration with Zeta Energy is another step in helping advance our electrification strategy as we work to deliver clean, safe and affordable vehicles,” Ned Curic, Stellantis chief engineering and technology officer, says in the release. “Groundbreaking battery technologies like lithium-sulfur can support Stellantis’ commitment to carbon neutrality by 2038 while ensuring our customers enjoy optimal range, performance and affordability.”

Last year, Zeta Energy announced that it was selected to receive $4 million in federal funding for the development of efficient electric vehicle batteries from the U.S. Department of Energy's ARPA-E Electric Vehicles for American Low-Carbon Living, or EVs4ALL, program.

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