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Houston expert: Where is tech going? And can the energy industry keep up?

Scott Nyquist on the future of technology and how they affect the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

When smart people come together to consider the future, it’s worth listening to them.

Not long ago, McKinsey brought together more than 60 experts, and asked them to name the most important technology trends for business. They started from the premise that the next 10 years will see more technological progress than in the previous 100 years—and that this will up-end companies and industries everywhere.

“We believe the technology disruption over the next few years will be equal to the industrial revolution,” says Nicolaus Henke, a McKinsey alum who participated in this Tech Trends Index, which will be updated annually.

Here are some of the specific predictions. More than three-quarters of enterprise-generated data will be processed by edge or cloud computing by 2025. Ten percent of global GDP could be associated with blockchain by 2027. Renewables will produce 75 percent of global energy by 2050. 5G could reach 80 percent of the world’s population by 2030.

Time will tell if any or all of these are right; personally, I think renewables will have to wait a little longer for that kind of dominance. But by and large, I found the list, and the underlying thinking, compelling. And given my background in oil-and-gas, I thought it was striking that parts of the energy industry are working on just about every single one of them. Here is the list:

  • Next-level process automation and visualization.
  • Future of connectivity.
  • Distributed infrastructure.
  • Next-generation computing.
  • Applied artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Future of programming.
  • Trust architecture.
  • Bio revolution.
  • Next-generation materials.
  • Future of clean technologies.

Specifically, the first half-dozen items are all connected to digitization, and while the energy industry may not be at the cutting edge of development, it has a long track record of integrating these technologies and safely deploying them in order to deliver low-cost and reliable supply.

For example, the oil and gas industry has used AI for years to evaluate reservoirs and to plan drilling—one of many improvements over the traditional “one rock, two geologists, three opinions" way of doing things. And advanced materials, such as composites, engineered polymers, and low-density/high-strength metals and alloys are commonly used to lower costs and improve performance, for example in deep water oil and gas production and rotating equipment. As for connectivity, there is no shortage of commitment, but I think it is fair to say that the full potential has not been tapped.

McKinsey has estimated that making use of advanced connectivity alone—to optimize drilling and production, as well as to improve maintenance and field operations—could translate into $250 billion in value by 2030. That is something that the industry could really use, given recent price fluctuations. Taken as a whole, while the industry is nowhere near completing a full digital transformation, it is certainly well on its way.

As for the item most clearly connected to the industry — No. 10, clean technologies — at first glance, this might seem like bad news for traditional energy players. Not so fast. There are clear opportunities in areas such as clean coal, carbon capture, and energy storage. Moreover, other kinds of clean technologies can help the industry decarbonize its operations—something that will become more important as carbon regulation gets more stringent.

As I see it, then, while parts of the industry may seem old-school, it is actually heavily engaged in almost everything on the list. That should come as no surprise. From the first time oil was pumped in Pennsylvania in 1859, it has innovated and adapted to integrate technologies that improved productivity, safety, and environmental performance. In fact, it could it could even be said that the sector is part of what is often known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution—the convergence and interaction of physical, digital, and biological technologies.

I, and many others in the industry, believe that the ongoing energy transition will likely suppress demand for fossil fuels in the long term. But while the items on the Tech Trends Index, together and separately, will be disruptive, requiring big changes in business models and day-to-day operations, they could also help the industry to adapt.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 4, 2021.

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A View From HETI

A new report shows that Texas data centers used 25 billion gallons of water in 2025. Photo via HARC report.

As data centers continue to boom throughout Texas, a new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) warns that the trend could strain the state’s water supply.

HARC estimates Texas data centers used 25 billion gallons of water in 2025—and that the demand for water will continue to rise to meet the needs of the 464 data centers currently in Texas, as well as 70 additional sites currently under development.

In the report, titled “Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State: The Impact of Data Center Growth on Texas’ Water Supply,” The Woodlands-based nonprofit says that water use for cooling data centers is expected to double or triple by 2028 on the national level. If projections hold, the total annual water use for data centers in Texas will increase by 0.5 percent to 2.7 percent by 2030, or to between 29 billion and 161 billion gallons of water consumed.

Data centers often use water for cooling, though water demand is dependent on the type of cooling used, the size and type of the data center. Although used water can be reused, some new water withdrawals are always needed to replace evaporated water and other systems’ water losses. Water is also used to cool the power plants that generate electricity used by the data centers.

The HARC report offers guidance to address the overall concerns of water demands by data centers, including:

  • Dry cooling methods
  • Increased reliance on wind and solar energy sources
  • Alternative water supplies, like treated wastewater or brackish water for cooling
  • Adjusted operating schedules to accommodate water usage
  • Partnering with local companies to develop projects that reduce water leaks
  • Companies creating their own water infrastructure investments

The report goes on to explain that the Texas State Water Plan, produced by the Texas Water Development Board, projects shortages of 1.6 trillion gallons by 2030 and 2.3 trillion gallons by 2070. HARC posits that the recent surge in water demand from AI data centers is not fully reflected in those projections.

"Texas water plans always look backward, not forward," the report reads. "That means the 2027 water plan, which is in development now, will be based on 2026 regional water plans that do not include forecasted data center water use. Data centers that began operation in 2025 will not be added to the State Water Plan until 2032."

Currently, there are no state regulations that require data centers to report how much water they use. However, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) plans to survey operators of data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities on their water consumption, cooling methods and electricity sources this spring. It is expected to release the results by the end of the year. The companies will have six weeks to respond. The Texas Water Development Board will assist the PUCT on the questions.

“I think we all recognize the importance of data centers and the technology they support and what they give to our modern-day life,” PUC Commissioner Courtney Hjaltman said during the last commission meeting. “Texans, regulators and the legislature really need that understanding of data centers, really need to understand the water they’re using so that we can plan and create the Texas we want.”

See the full HARC report here.

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