Scott Nyquist on the future of technology and how they affect the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

When smart people come together to consider the future, it’s worth listening to them.

Not long ago, McKinsey brought together more than 60 experts, and asked them to name the most important technology trends for business. They started from the premise that the next 10 years will see more technological progress than in the previous 100 years—and that this will up-end companies and industries everywhere.

“We believe the technology disruption over the next few years will be equal to the industrial revolution,” says Nicolaus Henke, a McKinsey alum who participated in this Tech Trends Index, which will be updated annually.

Here are some of the specific predictions. More than three-quarters of enterprise-generated data will be processed by edge or cloud computing by 2025. Ten percent of global GDP could be associated with blockchain by 2027. Renewables will produce 75 percent of global energy by 2050. 5G could reach 80 percent of the world’s population by 2030.

Time will tell if any or all of these are right; personally, I think renewables will have to wait a little longer for that kind of dominance. But by and large, I found the list, and the underlying thinking, compelling. And given my background in oil-and-gas, I thought it was striking that parts of the energy industry are working on just about every single one of them. Here is the list:

  • Next-level process automation and visualization.
  • Future of connectivity.
  • Distributed infrastructure.
  • Next-generation computing.
  • Applied artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Future of programming.
  • Trust architecture.
  • Bio revolution.
  • Next-generation materials.
  • Future of clean technologies.

Specifically, the first half-dozen items are all connected to digitization, and while the energy industry may not be at the cutting edge of development, it has a long track record of integrating these technologies and safely deploying them in order to deliver low-cost and reliable supply.

For example, the oil and gas industry has used AI for years to evaluate reservoirs and to plan drilling—one of many improvements over the traditional “one rock, two geologists, three opinions" way of doing things. And advanced materials, such as composites, engineered polymers, and low-density/high-strength metals and alloys are commonly used to lower costs and improve performance, for example in deep water oil and gas production and rotating equipment. As for connectivity, there is no shortage of commitment, but I think it is fair to say that the full potential has not been tapped.

McKinsey has estimated that making use of advanced connectivity alone—to optimize drilling and production, as well as to improve maintenance and field operations—could translate into $250 billion in value by 2030. That is something that the industry could really use, given recent price fluctuations. Taken as a whole, while the industry is nowhere near completing a full digital transformation, it is certainly well on its way.

As for the item most clearly connected to the industry — No. 10, clean technologies — at first glance, this might seem like bad news for traditional energy players. Not so fast. There are clear opportunities in areas such as clean coal, carbon capture, and energy storage. Moreover, other kinds of clean technologies can help the industry decarbonize its operations—something that will become more important as carbon regulation gets more stringent.

As I see it, then, while parts of the industry may seem old-school, it is actually heavily engaged in almost everything on the list. That should come as no surprise. From the first time oil was pumped in Pennsylvania in 1859, it has innovated and adapted to integrate technologies that improved productivity, safety, and environmental performance. In fact, it could it could even be said that the sector is part of what is often known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution—the convergence and interaction of physical, digital, and biological technologies.

I, and many others in the industry, believe that the ongoing energy transition will likely suppress demand for fossil fuels in the long term. But while the items on the Tech Trends Index, together and separately, will be disruptive, requiring big changes in business models and day-to-day operations, they could also help the industry to adapt.

———

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 4, 2021.

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New report maps Houston workforce development strategies as companies transition to cleaner energy

to-do list

The University of Houston’s Energy University latest study with UH’s Division of Energy and Innovation with stakeholders from the energy industry, academia have released findings from a collaborative white paper, titled "Workforce Development for the Future of Energy.”

UH Energy’s workforce analysis found that the greatest workforce gains occur with an “all-of-the-above” strategy to address the global shift towards low-carbon energy solutions. This would balance electrification and increased attention to renewables with liquid fuels, biomass, hydrogen, carbon capture, utilization and storage commonly known as CCUS, and carbon dioxide removal, according to a news release.

The authors of the paper believe this would support economic and employment growth, which would leverage workers from traditional energy sectors that may lose jobs during the transition.

The emerging hydrogen ecosystem is expected to create about 180,000 new jobs in the greater Houston area, which will offer an average annual income of approximately $75,000. Currently, 40 percent of Houston’s employment is tied to the energy sector.

“To sustain the Houston region’s growth, it’s important that we broaden workforce participation and opportunities,” Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice president of energy and innovation at UH, says in a news release. “Ensuring workforce readiness for new energy jobs and making sure we include disadvantaged communities is crucial.”

Some of the key takeaways include strategies that include partnering for success, hands-on training programs, flexible education pathways, comprehensive support services, and early and ongoing outreach initiatives.

“The greater Houston area’s journey towards a low-carbon future is both a challenge and an opportunity,” Krishnamoorti continues. “The region’s ability to adapt and lead in this new era will depend on its commitment to collaboration, innovation, and inclusivity. By preparing its workforce, engaging its communities, and leveraging its industrial heritage, we can redefine our region and continue to thrive as a global energy leader.”

The study was backed by federal funding from the Department of the Treasury through the State of Texas under the Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf Coast States Act of 2012.

Houston geothermal startup selects Texas location for first energy storage facility

major milestone

Houston-based geothermal energy startup Sage Geosystems has teamed up with a utility provider for an energy storage facility in the San Antonio metro area.

The three-megawatt EarthStore facility will be on land controlled by the San Miguel Electric Cooperative, which produces electricity for customers in 47 South Texas counties. The facility will be located in the town of Christine, near the cooperative’s coal-fired power plant.

Sage says its energy storage system will be paired with solar energy to supply power for the grid operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The facility is set to open later this year.

“Once operational, our EarthStore facility in Christine will be the first geothermal energy storage system to store potential energy deep in the earth and supply electrons to a power grid,” Cindy Taff, CEO of Sage Geosystems, says in a news release.

The facility is being designed to store geothermal energy during six- to 10-hour periods.

“Long-duration energy storage is crucial for the ERCOT utility grid, especially with the increasing integration of intermittent wind and solar power generation,” says Craig Courter, CEO of the San Miguel Electric Cooperative.