Scott Nyquist on the future of technology and how they affect the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

When smart people come together to consider the future, it’s worth listening to them.

Not long ago, McKinsey brought together more than 60 experts, and asked them to name the most important technology trends for business. They started from the premise that the next 10 years will see more technological progress than in the previous 100 years—and that this will up-end companies and industries everywhere.

“We believe the technology disruption over the next few years will be equal to the industrial revolution,” says Nicolaus Henke, a McKinsey alum who participated in this Tech Trends Index, which will be updated annually.

Here are some of the specific predictions. More than three-quarters of enterprise-generated data will be processed by edge or cloud computing by 2025. Ten percent of global GDP could be associated with blockchain by 2027. Renewables will produce 75 percent of global energy by 2050. 5G could reach 80 percent of the world’s population by 2030.

Time will tell if any or all of these are right; personally, I think renewables will have to wait a little longer for that kind of dominance. But by and large, I found the list, and the underlying thinking, compelling. And given my background in oil-and-gas, I thought it was striking that parts of the energy industry are working on just about every single one of them. Here is the list:

  • Next-level process automation and visualization.
  • Future of connectivity.
  • Distributed infrastructure.
  • Next-generation computing.
  • Applied artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Future of programming.
  • Trust architecture.
  • Bio revolution.
  • Next-generation materials.
  • Future of clean technologies.

Specifically, the first half-dozen items are all connected to digitization, and while the energy industry may not be at the cutting edge of development, it has a long track record of integrating these technologies and safely deploying them in order to deliver low-cost and reliable supply.

For example, the oil and gas industry has used AI for years to evaluate reservoirs and to plan drilling—one of many improvements over the traditional “one rock, two geologists, three opinions" way of doing things. And advanced materials, such as composites, engineered polymers, and low-density/high-strength metals and alloys are commonly used to lower costs and improve performance, for example in deep water oil and gas production and rotating equipment. As for connectivity, there is no shortage of commitment, but I think it is fair to say that the full potential has not been tapped.

McKinsey has estimated that making use of advanced connectivity alone—to optimize drilling and production, as well as to improve maintenance and field operations—could translate into $250 billion in value by 2030. That is something that the industry could really use, given recent price fluctuations. Taken as a whole, while the industry is nowhere near completing a full digital transformation, it is certainly well on its way.

As for the item most clearly connected to the industry — No. 10, clean technologies — at first glance, this might seem like bad news for traditional energy players. Not so fast. There are clear opportunities in areas such as clean coal, carbon capture, and energy storage. Moreover, other kinds of clean technologies can help the industry decarbonize its operations—something that will become more important as carbon regulation gets more stringent.

As I see it, then, while parts of the industry may seem old-school, it is actually heavily engaged in almost everything on the list. That should come as no surprise. From the first time oil was pumped in Pennsylvania in 1859, it has innovated and adapted to integrate technologies that improved productivity, safety, and environmental performance. In fact, it could it could even be said that the sector is part of what is often known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution—the convergence and interaction of physical, digital, and biological technologies.

I, and many others in the industry, believe that the ongoing energy transition will likely suppress demand for fossil fuels in the long term. But while the items on the Tech Trends Index, together and separately, will be disruptive, requiring big changes in business models and day-to-day operations, they could also help the industry to adapt.

———

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 4, 2021.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Texas A&M wins $5.4M DOE grant for advanced nuclear fuel research

fresh funding

The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) a $5.4 million grant to research ways to turn nuclear waste into fuel.

The goal of the project, “Turning Nuclear Waste into Fuel with a Thorium Molten Salt Reactor,” is to develop innovative reactor fuel technology that could help transform long-lived nuclear waste into a valuable energy resource while advancing the future of nuclear power, according to Texas A&M.

Lin Shao, a Texas A&M professor of nuclear engineering, will lead the project and unite researchers from TEES, Savannah River National Laboratory and Abilene, Texas-based nuclear power company Natura Resources. The team will use experimental testing, fuel preparation, reactor design and computational modeling in their work.

“Texas A&M Engineering is honored to receive this support from the Department of Energy to advance groundbreaking nuclear energy technologies,” Robert H. Bishop, vice chancellor and dean of Texas A&M Engineering and director of TEES, said in a news release. “This research aligns directly with our mission to solve the nation’s most pressing engineering challenges through innovation and collaboration. We have an opportunity to develop solutions that reduce nuclear waste, improve energy reliability and help maintain American leadership in advanced nuclear technologies.”

Texas A&M’s award is part of the DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) $50 million advancement for next-generation nuclear fuels through the High-performance Optimized Recycled Nuclear Isotopes for Gen IV reactors (HORNIG) program. Texas A&M was one of eight projects selected as part of the ARPA-E efforts.

“America’s energy future depends on bold innovation and strong partnerships between the federal government, national laboratories, universities and industry,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy James P. Danly said when he awarded the grant on campus Oct. 29. “This project demonstrates how we can address long-term nuclear waste challenges while advancing technologies that strengthen our nation’s energy security. The Department of Energy is proud to support research that has the potential to unlock new value from existing nuclear materials and accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor systems.”

Zero-emission electric air taxi network to land in Texas in 2027

Electric Travel

San Jose, California-based aerospace company Archer Aviation is bringing its air-taxi system to the “Texas triangle” of Houston, Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth.

Currently, the planned zero-emission electric air taxi networks will use Archer’s Midnight air taxi to “turn 60- to 90-minute drives to major airports, business districts and major destinations into 10- to 20-minute flights,” the company said in a news release. Archer plans to begin flights in the Texas triangle next year.

The Midnight air taxi is an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. It can carry four passengers and a pilot and is designed for consecutive flights of about 20 miles.

Archer cites the Texas triangle as one of the busiest and fastest-growing “megaregions” in the country due to its proximity to coastal regions, major airports, and a number of business districts.

Archer Chief Commercial Officer Nikhil Goel described the air taxi experience to CW Houston as “100 times quieter than a helicopter for the price of an Uber Black.” He added that the air taxis are a combination of a helicopter, a small airplane and a drone.

In Houston, Archer’s air taxi network will aim to connect George Bush Intercontinental, William P. Hobby and Sugar Land Regional Airport with downtown destinations, including the Thompson Hotel helipad, and Galveston.

In Austin, it plans to link the city's Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and Austin Executive Airport with the F1 Circuit Helipad at the Circuit of the Americas. Archer debuted its Midnight aircraft at the F1 Prix in the Fan Zone and the F1 Paddock at Austin’s COTA.

The Dallas-Fort Worth network is slated to include Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, Dallas Love Field, Addison Airport, Arlington Municipal Airport, Fort Worth Meacham International Airport and Perot Field Fort Worth Alliance Airport, plus major business hubs like Frisco Station.

“Texas is setting the bar for America’s leadership in the next generation of aviation,” Adam Goldstein, founder and CEO of Archer Aviation, said in the release. “Our planned networks will make the benefits of electric air taxis real for Texans — trading hours in traffic for minutes in the air, while connecting the biggest airports, business districts and sporting hubs in ways that America’s largest megaregion needs to grow.”

Archer is working with state and local partners to develop charging infrastructure and plans to pursue Texas operations through the White House’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, according to the release. It recently completed its "No Roads" flight tour, which included multiple flights over the San Francisco Bay, and flew to seven cities over three days.

---

This article first appeared on InnovationMap.com.

Fervo Energy scores third consecutive nod on MIT climatech list

top honor

Houston-based geothermal power company Fervo Energy has notched a three-peat on MIT Technology Review’s annual 10 Climate Tech Companies to Watch List.

“The newly public company is betting that Al’s power boom will help turn enhanced geothermal energy into a scalable reality,” MIT Technology Review says of the three-time honoree.

Fervo went public in May through a $2.2 billion IPO.

Other Fervo recent milestones include:

“We are in the midst of a once-in-a-generation surge in power demand that is likely to dictate the outcome of the American success story in both artificial intelligence and industrial growth, but also the extent to which people have access to affordable, reliable power,” Tim Latimer, co-founder, chairman, president and CEO, said during Fervo’s second-quarter earnings call.

“The stakes have never been higher,” he added, “and I’ve never been more convinced that Fervo is uniquely positioned to meet this moment.”

Also making MIT Technology Review’s fourth annual list were:

  • Greentown Houston alum Energy Dome, based in Milan, Italy. “Energy Dome is using the gas to deliver cheap long-duration energy storage for the grid,” MIT Technology Review says.
  • Greentown Houston alum Moment Energy, based in Vancouver, Canada. “The startup is betting that repurposing — rather than recycling — used EV batteries will help buoy much-needed U.S. supply,” MIT Technology Review says.
  • Greentown Boston member Form Energy, based in Somersville, Massachusetts. It’s a three-time honoree. “Form’s 100-hour batteries could make clean energy more weather-resilient and help power data centers,” MIT Technology Review says.

Greentown Labs is an incubator for climatech and energy startups that's co-located in Houston and Boston. Fervo is also an alum of Greentown Houston.

“Whether early-stage startup or multinational corporation, the businesses we’ve chosen are working on technologies to help us address climate change or adapt to our warming world,” MIT Technology Review says. “There’s an urgent need for these innovators: We must begin to drastically reduce emissions to avoid the deadliest impacts of climate change, while also contending with its harmful effects.”