Scott Nyquist on the future of technology and how they affect the energy industry. Photo via Getty Images

When smart people come together to consider the future, it’s worth listening to them.

Not long ago, McKinsey brought together more than 60 experts, and asked them to name the most important technology trends for business. They started from the premise that the next 10 years will see more technological progress than in the previous 100 years—and that this will up-end companies and industries everywhere.

“We believe the technology disruption over the next few years will be equal to the industrial revolution,” says Nicolaus Henke, a McKinsey alum who participated in this Tech Trends Index, which will be updated annually.

Here are some of the specific predictions. More than three-quarters of enterprise-generated data will be processed by edge or cloud computing by 2025. Ten percent of global GDP could be associated with blockchain by 2027. Renewables will produce 75 percent of global energy by 2050. 5G could reach 80 percent of the world’s population by 2030.

Time will tell if any or all of these are right; personally, I think renewables will have to wait a little longer for that kind of dominance. But by and large, I found the list, and the underlying thinking, compelling. And given my background in oil-and-gas, I thought it was striking that parts of the energy industry are working on just about every single one of them. Here is the list:

  • Next-level process automation and visualization.
  • Future of connectivity.
  • Distributed infrastructure.
  • Next-generation computing.
  • Applied artificial intelligence (AI).
  • Future of programming.
  • Trust architecture.
  • Bio revolution.
  • Next-generation materials.
  • Future of clean technologies.

Specifically, the first half-dozen items are all connected to digitization, and while the energy industry may not be at the cutting edge of development, it has a long track record of integrating these technologies and safely deploying them in order to deliver low-cost and reliable supply.

For example, the oil and gas industry has used AI for years to evaluate reservoirs and to plan drilling—one of many improvements over the traditional “one rock, two geologists, three opinions" way of doing things. And advanced materials, such as composites, engineered polymers, and low-density/high-strength metals and alloys are commonly used to lower costs and improve performance, for example in deep water oil and gas production and rotating equipment. As for connectivity, there is no shortage of commitment, but I think it is fair to say that the full potential has not been tapped.

McKinsey has estimated that making use of advanced connectivity alone—to optimize drilling and production, as well as to improve maintenance and field operations—could translate into $250 billion in value by 2030. That is something that the industry could really use, given recent price fluctuations. Taken as a whole, while the industry is nowhere near completing a full digital transformation, it is certainly well on its way.

As for the item most clearly connected to the industry — No. 10, clean technologies — at first glance, this might seem like bad news for traditional energy players. Not so fast. There are clear opportunities in areas such as clean coal, carbon capture, and energy storage. Moreover, other kinds of clean technologies can help the industry decarbonize its operations—something that will become more important as carbon regulation gets more stringent.

As I see it, then, while parts of the industry may seem old-school, it is actually heavily engaged in almost everything on the list. That should come as no surprise. From the first time oil was pumped in Pennsylvania in 1859, it has innovated and adapted to integrate technologies that improved productivity, safety, and environmental performance. In fact, it could it could even be said that the sector is part of what is often known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution—the convergence and interaction of physical, digital, and biological technologies.

I, and many others in the industry, believe that the ongoing energy transition will likely suppress demand for fossil fuels in the long term. But while the items on the Tech Trends Index, together and separately, will be disruptive, requiring big changes in business models and day-to-day operations, they could also help the industry to adapt.

———

Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 4, 2021.

Ad Placement 300x100
Ad Placement 300x600

CultureMap Emails are Awesome

Houston startup nets new funding to accelerate methane leak detection

fresh funding

Houston climatech startup Aquanta Vision has secured pre-seed funding to accelerate the commercialization of its methane leak detection software.

EIC Rose Rock participated in the round, joining investors like Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Chevron Technology Ventures, Ecosphere Ventures, and Odyssey Energy Advisors. The investment follows successful field trials for Aquanta Vision’s optical gas imaging (OGI) detection software, according to the company.

“This investment highlights our shared excitement as our patented novel technology improves detection levels for OGI camera operators,” Babur Ozden, Aquanta Vision’s CEO and founder, said in a news release. “The funding from EIC Rose Rock enables us to strategically accelerate this impact.”

Aquanta Vision’s OGI technology features an automated detection layer through an add-on app that improves methane detectability without requiring new hardware. It installs in minutes, runs locally and provides real-time, in-flight plume visualization for inspections with drone-mounted and handheld cameras.

“We are excited to partner with Aquanta Vision to scale and deploy this world-class technology that enables the energy industry to continue to deliver the secure, reliable and affordable energy that drives the American economy,” David Clouse, managing director of the EIC Rose Rock fund, added in the news release.

The company has partnered with Teledyne Flir and Sierra Olympia, makers of one of the world’s largest deployed fleet of handheld and drone-mounted optical gas imaging cameras used in industrial inspections. AquantaVision is now working with Teledyne Flir’s product team, as well as Sierra Olympia and its OEM partners.

Aquanta Vision has estimated that methane leaks cost the U.S. energy industry billions of dollars each year, with 60 percent of leaks going undetected, and methane leaks accounting for around 10 percent of natural gas's contribution to climate change, according to MIT’s climate portal.

Houston trio lands on Time’s list of 10 most influential energy companies

making an impact

Three companies with headquarters in Houston made Time magazine’s new list of the 10 most influential energy companies.

The unranked list includes:

  • Houston-based oil and gas giant Chevron
  • Houston-based Fervo Energy, a geothermal power provider that just went public in a $1.9 billion IPO
  • Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, whose U.S. headquarters is in Houston

In naming Chevron to the list, Time cites the company’s standing as the only major American oil company operating in Venezuela. Time says Chevron wields “extraordinary power” over Venezuela’s massive oil reserves.

Despite pressure from the White House on U.S. oil and gas producers to ramp up investments in Venezuela, “Chevron has pumped the brakes, pledging to boost output gradually and not chase price fluctuations,” Time says.

“Chevron has been in Venezuela for over a century,” CEO Mike Wirth told shareholders in January. “We remain committed to leveraging our deep expertise and long-standing partnerships for the benefit of our shareholders and the people of Venezuela.”

Time points out that Fervo sits “at the front of the pack” in generation of geothermal energy. The Houston-based company uses fracking techniques borrowed from the oil and gas industry to create underground hot-rock reservoirs that heat water to generate electricity.

Fervo’s Cape Station in Utah is scheduled to start delivering power to the grid this year. At full capacity of 500 megawatts, it will be the first large-scale commercial geothermal plant in the U.S. Time says another site in Utah, Project Blanford, is Fervo’s hottest well yet, highlighting the potential for harnessing geothermal heat for at-scale clean energy.

“It’s hard to find something that can [deliver] reliable 24/7 energy, that’s carbon-free, and can be constructed in a timely manner,” Fervo CEO Tim Latimer said. “It’s energy without a lot of the compromises.”

Government-owned Saudi Aramco, which last year earned $104.7 billion in profit, not only is a dominant player in the Mideast oil and gas sector, but Time says it holds “global clout in politics and business” that reaches far beyond oilfields. For example, the company finances big projects spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, who chairs Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. These include initiatives in global sports, tourism, and AI.

Baker Hughes teams up with Oklahoma co. to advance geothermal development

geothermal partnership

In recent months, Houston-based energy corporation Baker Hughes has launched multiple partnerships to expand geothermal energy extraction across the United States. The latest, a deal with Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne Inc. (H&P), was announced Wednesday.

As part of the deal, H&P will provide a geothermal-capable land drilling rig, while Baker Hughes will contribute technology and expertise. The rig is expected to be deployed later this year, according to a news release.

“Geothermal energy plays a critical role in meeting growing power demand by providing clean, reliable baseload generation,” Amerino Gatti, executive vice president of oilfield services & equipment for Baker Hughes, said in the release. “This collaboration reflects a deliberate step to move its development in the U.S. from concept to reality. By working together, Baker Hughes and Helmerich & Payne are helping customers advance these critical energy projects with greater confidence and deliver reliable, sustainable power.”

Investment in the geothermal energy sector is currently exploding in the U.S., having grown by at least 1,000 percent just in the last seven years, according to a recent report by Rocky Mountain Institute.

On one hand, only about 1 percent of the American energy grid currently uses geothermal, but on the other, the U.S. holds roughly 25 percent of the world’s geothermal capacity. Harnessing that power becomes even more attractive as conflicts in Russia and Iran continue to hamstring energy markets from those countries and revitalize interest in renewable energy.

Baker Hughes has been at the forefront of the geothermal boom. This new deal with H&P combines H&P’s drilling platform technology with Baker Hughes’s subsurface and energy extraction support technologies.

“This agreement underscores Helmerich & Payne’s commitment to supporting emerging energy opportunities through our drilling technologies and operational expertise,” H&P President and CEO Trey Adams added in the release. “We are pleased to collaborate with Baker Hughes to support the advancement of geothermal development in the United States.”

The deal with H&P is just one of several recent ones Baker Hughes has closed. In March, they announced support for XGS’s geothermal extraction projects in New Mexico, which are being used to meet the increasing demands of data centers in the state. Last May, Fervo Energy selected Baker Hughes to supply equipment for its flagship geothermal project in Utah.