analyzing earth

New study from Houston research team looks at how the Earth cycles fossil carbon

A Rice University professor studied the Earth's carbon cycle in the Rio Madre de Dios to shed light on current climate conditions. Photo courtesy of Mark Torres/Rice University

Carbon cycles through Earth, its inhabitants, and its atmosphere on a regular basis, but not much research has been done on that process and qualifying it — until now.

In a recent study of a river system extending from the Peruvian Andes to the Amazon floodplains, Rice University’s Mark Torres and collaborators from five institutions proved that that high rates of carbon breakdown persist from mountaintop to floodplain.

“The purpose of this research was to quantify the rate at which Earth naturally releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and find out whether this process varies across different geographic locations,” Torres says in a news release.

Torres published his findings in a study published in PNAS, explaining how they used rhenium — a silvery-gray, heavy transition metal — as a proxy for carbon. The research into the Earth’s natural, pre-anthropogenic carbon cycle stands to benefit humanity by providing valuable insight to current climate challenges.

“This research used a newly-developed technique pioneered by Robert Hilton and Mathieu Dellinger that relies on a trace element — rhenium — that’s incorporated in fossil organic matter,” Torres says. “As plankton die and sink to the bottom of the ocean, that dead carbon becomes chemically reactive in a way that adds rhenium to it.”

The research was done in the Rio Madre de Dios basin and supported by funding from a European Research Council Starting Grant, the European Union COFUND/Durham Junior Research Fellowship, and the National Science Foundation.

“I’m very excited about this tool,” Torres said. “Rice students have deployed this same method in our lab here, so now we can make this kind of measurement and apply it at other sites. In fact, as part of current research funded by the National Science Foundation, we are applying this technique in Southern California to learn how tectonics and climate influence the breakdown of fossil carbon.”

Torres also received a three-year grant from the Department of Energy to study soil for carbon storage earlier this year.

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A View From HETI

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040. Photo via Unsplash

The rise of electric vehicles could spell trouble for Houston’s oil and gas sector, a new report suggests. But the oil and gas industry stands to benefit from potential sluggishness in U.S. adoption of EVs.

If worldwide EV adoption rises as expected, global oil demand could fall by five million barrels per day by 2040, accelerating the closure of about 40 oil refineries, says the report, published by energy research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. The firm’s North American hub is in Houston.

Those closures might spell trouble for refinery operators with a sizable Houston-area presence, including BP, ExxonMobil, Marathon, Saudi Aramco, and Valero. In 2025, the five companies collectively earned roughly $33 billion from downstream operations, including refineries. One caveat: Each company assigns a different definition to “downstream.”

Refineries in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, including the U.S. but excluding Middle Eastern heavyweights, “are most at risk due to their high energy costs and carbon prices,” the Wood Mackenzie report says.

On the flip side, an abundant U.S. oil supply means American drivers have less of an incentive to switch from traditional cars to electric vehicles, despite stubbornly high fuel prices, according to the report.

Wood Mackenzie predicts EVs will account for 20 percent of the U.S. personal and commercial vehicle fleet in 2040, up from three percent in 2025. That compares with a global forecast of 25 percent in 2040, up from 4 percent last year.

Another U.S. roadblock to EV adoption cited in the report: the country’s relative lack of advanced battery manufacturing.

“Without advanced battery technologies, the U.S. auto sector is at risk of ceding its home market to non-Chinese EVs and falling behind competitors internationally,” the report says.

Furthermore, according to the report, Chinese investment in EV manufacturing in the U.S. probably will remain a no-go and tariffs on Chinese EV imports likely won’t be lifted, even if Democrats resurrected EV incentives following a White House win in 2028.

“Competition among EV manufacturers in international markets will only intensify,” the report notes. “Companies that can offer competitive products in high-growth markets will be best positioned for long-term success.”

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