EV Update

Tesla no longer world's biggest EV maker as sales drop for second year

Tesla sales were down yet again. Getty Images

Tesla lost its crown as the world’s bestselling electric vehicle maker as a customer revolt over Elon Musk’s right-wing politics, expiring U.S. tax breaks for buyers and stiff overseas competition pushed sales down for a second year in a row.

Tesla said that it delivered 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, down 9% from a year earlier.

Chinese rival BYD, which sold 2.26 million vehicles last year, is now the biggest EV maker.

It's a stunning reversal for a car company whose rise once seemed unstoppable as it overtook traditional automakers with far more resources and helped make Musk the world's richest man. The sales drop came despite President Donald Trump's marketing effort early last year when he called a press conference to praise Musk as a “patriot” in front of Teslas lined up on the White House driveway, then announced he would be buying one, bucking presidential precedent to not endorse private company products.

For the fourth quarter, Tesla sales totaled 418,227, falling short of even the much reduced 440,000 target that analysts recently polled by FactSet had expected. Sales were hit hard by the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicle purchases that was phased out by the Trump administration at the end of September.

Tesla stock fell 2.6% to $438.07 on Friday.

Even with multiple issues buffeting the company, investors are betting that Tesla CEO Musk can deliver on his ambitions to make Tesla a leader in robotaxi services and get consumers to embrace humanoid robots that can perform basic tasks in homes and offices. Reflecting that optimism, the stock finished 2025 with a gain of approximately 11%.

The latest quarter was the first with sales of stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3 that Musk unveiled in early October as part of an effort to revive sales. The new Model Y costs just under $40,000 while customers can buy the cheaper Model 3 for under $37,000. Those versions are expected to help Tesla compete with Chinese models in Europe and Asia.

For fourth-quarter earnings coming out in late January, analysts are expecting the company to post a 3% drop in sales and a nearly 40% drop in earnings per share, according to FactSet. Analysts expect the downward trend in sales and profits to eventually reverse itself as 2026 rolls along.

Musk said earlier last year that a “major rebound” in sales was underway, but investors were unruffled when that didn't pan out, choosing instead to focus on Musk's pivot to different parts of business. He has has been saying the future of the company lies with its driverless robotaxis service, its energy storage business and building robots for the home and factory — and much less with car sales.

Tesla started rolling out its robotaxi service in Austin in June, first with safety monitors in the cars to take over in case of trouble, then testing without them. The company hopes to roll out the service in several cities this year.

To do that successfully, it needs to take on rival Waymo, which has been operating autonomous taxis for years and has far more customers. It also will also have to contend with regulatory challenges. The company is under several federal safety investigations and other probes. In California, Tesla is at risk of temporarily losing its license to sell cars in the state after a judge there ruled it had misled customers about their safety.

“Regulatory is going to be a big issue,” said Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a well-known bull on the stock. “We're dealing with people's lives.”

Still, Ives said he expects Tesla's autonomous offerings will soon overcome any setbacks.

Musk has said he hopes software updates to his cars will enable hundreds of thousands of Tesla vehicles to operate autonomously with zero human intervention by the end of this year. The company is also planning to begin production of its AI-powered Cybercab with no steering wheel or pedals in 2026.

To keep Musk focused on the company, Tesla’s directors awarded Musk a potentially enormous new pay package that shareholders backed at the annual meeting in November.

Musk scored another huge windfall two weeks ago when the Delaware Supreme Court reversed a decision that deprived him of a $55 billion pay package that Tesla doled out in 2018.

Musk could become the world's first trillionaire later this year when he sells shares of his rocket company SpaceX to the public for the first time in what analysts expect would be a blockbuster initial public offering.

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A View From HETI

The deal builds upon an existing partnership between Fervo and Google. Photo courtesy Fervo Energy

In its largest-ever purchase agreement, Houston-based geothermal company Fervo Energy will supply 396 megawatts of power to tech powerhouse Google.

The deal includes an option for Google to expand capacity by about 600 megawatts, for a total of 1 gigawatt, by June 2030, according to a news release from Fervo. Financial terms weren’t disclosed.

Google will purchase carbon-free energy from Fervo for a potential data center in Utah, where Fervo is building its more than $2 billion Cape Station geothermal project.

Fervo applies oil-and-gas fracking technology to create geothermal reservoirs and generate electricity.

The first phase of Cape Station is expected to begin delivering geothermal power by late 2026, reaching about 100 megawatts of capacity by early 2027. The second phase, set for completion in 2028, will add 400 megawatts of capacity.

Fervo co-founder and CEO Tim Latimer said in a release that the Google agreement supports enhanced geothermal systems as a key power source for “the next generation of computing infrastructure.”

“The next chapter of advanced power generation technology is being written in Utah,” said Lucia Tian, director of advanced energy technologies at Google.

The Fervo-Google agreement builds on an existing partnership. Fervo’s Project Red pilot development in Nevada, which came online in 2023, supplies power to the local grid. Users of the grid power include Google’s data centers in Nevada.

Fervo subsequently signed a 115-megawatt purchase agreement with Google and NV Energy. The deal enabled Google to bring more geothermal energy to the Nevada grid while insulating everyday customers from the project’s costs.

The latest Google deal is part of the ongoing expansion of Cape Station beyond its initial 100-megawatt phase. Fervo says Cape Station will be the world’s largest enhanced geothermal facility.

The Google agreement comes during a milestone year for Fervo, which was founded in 2017. In May, Fervo’s IPO raised $2.2 billion. The company, whose early investors include Bill Gates, is now valued at $5.65 billion.

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