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Reshaping the Texas grid: The impact of EVs, AI, renewables, and extreme weather

guest column

While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

Did you catch those images of idle generators that CenterPoint had on standby during Hurricane Beryl? With over 2 million people in the Houston area left in the dark, many were wondering, "if the generators are ready, why didn’t they get used?" It seems like power outages are becoming just as common as the severe storms themselves.

But as Ken Medlock, Senior Director of the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES) explains, it's not a simple fix. The outages during Hurricane Beryl were different from what we saw during Winter Storm Uri. This time, with so many poles and wires down, those generators couldn’t be put to use. It’s a reminder that each storm brings its own set of challenges, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution when it comes to keeping the lights on. While extreme weather is one of the leading threats to our electric grid, it's certainly not the only one adding strain on our power infrastructure.

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicles (EVs) is transforming the way we live, work, and move. Beneath the surface of these technological marvels lies a challenge that could define the future of our energy infrastructure: they all depend on our electrical grid. As AI-powered data centers and a growing fleet of EVs demand more power than ever before, our grid—already under pressure from extreme weather events and an increasing reliance on renewable energy—faces a critical test. The question goes beyond whether our grid can keep up, but rather focuses on how we can ensure it evolves to support the innovations of tomorrow without compromising reliability today. The intersection of these emerging technologies with our aging energy infrastructure poses a dilemma that policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers must address.

Julie Cohn, Nonresident Fellow at the Center for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, presents several key findings and recommendations to address concerns about the reliability of the Texas energy grid in her Energy Insight. She suggests there’s at least six developments unfolding that will affect the reliability of the Texas Interconnected System, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the regional distribution networks operated by regulated utilities.

Let’s dig deeper into some of these issues:

AI

AI requires substantial computational power, particularly in data centers that house servers processing vast amounts of data. These data centers consume large amounts of electricity, putting additional strain on the grid.

According to McKinsey & Company, a single hyperscale data center can consume as much electricity as 80,000 homes combined. In 2022, data centers consumed about 200 terawatt-hours (TWh), close to 4 percent, of the total electricity used in the United States and approximately 460 TWh globally. That’s nearly the consumption of the entire State of Texas, which consumed approximately 475.4 TWh of electricity in the same year. However, this percentage is expected to increase significantly as demand for data processing and storage continues to grow. In 2026, data centers are expected to account for 6 percent, almost 260 TWh, of total electricity demand in the U.S.

EVs

According to the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles, approximately 170,000 EVs have been registered across the state of Texas as of 2023, with Texas receiving $408 million in funding to expand its EV charging network. As Cohn suggests, a central question remains: Where will these emerging economic drivers for Texas, such as EVs and AI, obtain their electric power?

EVs draw power from the grid every time they’re plugged in to charge. This may come as a shock to some, but “the thing that’s recharging EV batteries in ERCOT right now, is natural gas,” says Medlock. And as McKinsey & Company explains, the impact of switching to EVs on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will largely depend on how much GHG is produced by the electricity used to charge them. This adds a layer of complexity as regulators look to decarbonize the power sector.

Depending on the charger, a single EV fast charger can pull anywhere from 50 kW to 350 kW of electricity per hour. Now, factor in the constant energy drain from data centers, our growing population using power for homes and businesses, and then account for the sudden impact of severe environmental events—which have increased in frequency and intensity—and it’s clear: Houston… we have a problem.

The Weather Wildcard

Texas is gearing up for its 2025 legislative session on January 14. The state's electricity grid once again stands at the forefront of political discussions. The question is not just whether our power will stay on during the next winter storm or scorching summer heatwave, but whether our approach to grid management is sustainable in the face of mounting challenges. The events of recent years, from Winter Storm Uri to unprecedented heatwaves, have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the Texas electricity grid, and while legislative measures have been taken, they have been largely patchwork solutions.

Winter Storm Uri in 2021 was a wake-up call, but it wasn’t the first or last extreme weather event to test the Texas grid. With deep freezes, scorching summers, and unpredictable storms becoming the norm rather than the exception, it is clear that the grid’s current state is not capable of withstanding these extremes. The measures passed in 2021 and 2023 were steps in the right direction, but they were reactive, not proactive. They focused on strengthening the grid against cold weather, yet extreme heat, a more consistent challenge in Texas, remains a less-addressed threat. The upcoming legislative session must prioritize comprehensive climate resilience strategies that go beyond cold weather prep.

“The planners for the Texas grid have important questions to address regarding anticipated weather extremes: Will there be enough energy? Will power be available when and where it is needed? Is the state prepared for extreme weather events? Are regional distribution utilities prepared for extreme weather events? Texas is not alone in facing these challenges as other states have likewise experienced extremely hot and dry summers, wildfires, polar vortexes, and other weather conditions that have tested their regional power systems,” writes Cohn.

Renewable Energy and Transmission

Texas leads the nation in wind and solar capacity (Map: Energy, Environment, and Policy in the US), however the complexity lies in getting that energy from where it’s produced to where it’s needed. Transmission lines are feeling the pressure, and the grid is struggling to keep pace with the rapid expansion of renewables. In 2005, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) initiative showed that state intervention could significantly accelerate grid expansion. With renewables continuing to grow, the big question now is whether the state will step up again, or risk allowing progress to stall due to the inadequacy of the infrastructure in place. The legislature has a choice to make: take the lead in this energy transition or face the consequences of not keeping up with the pace of change.

Conclusion

The electrical grid continues to face serious challenges, especially as demand is expected to rise. There is hope, however, as regulators are fully aware of the strain. While our grid may be showing its age, this is the perfect time to shift from reacting to problems to getting ahead of them.

As Cohn puts it, “In the end, successful resolution of the various issues will carry significant benefits for existing Texas industrial, commercial, and residential consumers and have implications for the longer-term economic attractiveness of Texas. Suffice it to say, eyes will be, and should be, on the Texas legislature in the coming session.”

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on September 11, 2024.

From Your Site Articles
Researchers have secured $3.3 million in funding to develop an AI-powered subsurface sensing system aimed at improving the safety and efficiency of underground power line installation. Photo via Getty Images

Houston researchers earn $3.3M in DOE funding to develop safer underground power line installation

going under

Researchers from the University of Houston — along with a Hawaiian company — have received $3.3 million in funding to explore artificial intelligence-backed subsurface sensing system for safe and efficient underground power line installation.

Houston's power lines are above ground, but studies show underground power is more reliable. Installing underground power lines is costly and disruptive, but the U.S. Department of Energy, in an effort to find a solution, has put $34 million into its new GOPHURRS program, which stands for Grid Overhaul with Proactive, High-speed Undergrounding for Reliability, Resilience, and Security. The funding has been distributed across 12 projects in 11 states.

“Modernizing our nation’s power grid is essential to building a clean energy future that lowers energy costs for working Americans and strengthens our national security,” U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm says in a DOE press release.

UH and Hawaii-based Oceanit are behind one of the funded projects, entitled “Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Real-Time Advanced Look-Ahead Subsurface Sensor.”

The researchers are looking a developing a subsurface sensing system for underground power line installation, potentially using machine learning, electromagnetic resistivity well logging, and drone technology to predict and sense obstacles to installation.

Jiefu Chen, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at UH, is a key collaborator on the project, focused on electromagnetic antennas installed on UAV and HDD drilling string. He's working with Yueqin Huang, assistant professor of information science technology, who leads the geophysical signal processing and Xuqing Wu, associate professor of computer information systems, responsible for integrating machine learning.

“Advanced subsurface sensing and characterization technologies are essential for the undergrounding of power lines,” says Chen in the release. “This initiative can enhance the grid's resilience against natural hazards such as wildfires and hurricanes.”

“If proven successful, our proposed look-ahead subsurface sensing system could significantly reduce the costs of horizontal directional drilling for installing underground utilities,” Chen continues. “Promoting HDD offers environmental advantages over traditional trenching methods and enhances the power grid’s resilience.”

The GHRI Phase Two will lead to more than 125 million fewer outage minutes annually, according to CenterPoint. Photo via centerpoint.com

CenterPoint’s Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative makes advancements on progress

step by step

CenterPoint Energy has released the first of its public progress updates on the actions being taken throughout the Greater Houston 12-county area, which is part of Phase Two of its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative.

The GHRI Phase Two will lead to more than 125 million fewer outage minutes annually, according to CenterPoint.

According to CenterPoint, they have installed around 4,600 storm-resilient poles, installed more than 100 miles of power lines underground, cleared more than 800 miles of hazardous vegetation to improve reliability, and installed more self-healing automation all during the first two months of the program in preparation for the 2025 hurricane season.

"This summer, we accomplished a significant level of increased system hardening in the first phase of the Greater Houston Resilience Initiative,” Darin Carroll, senior vice president of CenterPoint Energy's Electric Business, says in a news release.

”Since then, as we have been fully engaged in delivering the additional set of actions in our second phase of GHRI, we continue to make significant progress as we work toward our ultimate goal of becoming the most resilient coastal grid in the country,” he continues.

The GHRI is a series of actions to “ strengthen resilience, enable a self-healing grid and reduce the duration and impact of power outages” according to a news release. The following progress through early November include:

The second phase of GHRI will run through May 31, 2025. During this time, CenterPoint teams will be installing 4,500 automated reliability devices to minimize sustained interruptions during major storms, reduce restoration times, and establish a network of 100 new weather monitoring stations. CenterPoint plans to complete each of these actions before the start of the next hurricane season.

“Now, and in the months to come, we will remain laser-focused on completing these critical resiliency actions and building the more reliable and more resilient energy system our customers expect and deserve," Carroll adds.

CenterPoint also announced that it has completed all 42 of the critical actions the company committed to taking in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl. Some of the actions were trimming or removing higher-risk vegetation from more than 2,000 power line miles, installing more than 1,100 more storm-resilient poles, installing over 300 automated devices to reduce sustained outages, launching a new, cloud-based outage tracker, improving CenterPoint's Power Alert Service, hosting listening sessions across the service area and using feedback.

In October, CenterPoint Energy announced an agreement with Artificial Intelligence-powered infrastructure modeling platform Neara for engineering-grade simulations and analytics, and to deploy Neara’s AI capabilities across CenterPoint’s Greater Houston service area.

Neara’s AI-enabled simulation and analytics platform can help CenterPoint reduce customer outages and accelerate restoration efforts. Photo via Getty Images

CenterPoint partners with AI company to help reduce outages, help restoration

hi, tech

CenterPoint Energy announced an agreement with Artificial Intelligence-powered infrastructure modeling platform Neara for engineering-grade simulations and analytics, and to deploy Neara’s AI capabilities across CenterPoint’s Greater Houston service area.

“We are thrilled to collaborate with CenterPoint as they lead the charge in addressing today’s most existential energy challenges,” Robert Brook, senior vice president and managing director of Neara Americas, says in a news release.

Neara’s AI-enabled simulation and analytics platform can help CenterPoint reduce customer outages and accelerate restoration efforts. The technology can support CenterPoint’s efforts to address higher-risk vegetation along power lines, and identify equipment upgrades. Upgrades can include pole replacements or reinforcements. The platform will help CenterPoint to prioritize “assets and locations where grid hardening improvements will help optimize system-wide benefit,” per the release.

"Our 3D digital modeling technology will help CenterPoint proactively reduce customer outages by simulating severe weather events, such as hurricanes, tropical storms, heat waves and flash floods, and their potential impact on the utility’s infrastructure,” Brook says in the release.

CenterPoint recently announced the ahead of schedule completion of core resiliency actions as part of the first phase of its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative (GHRI). This included a series of targeted actions to improve the resiliency of CenterPoint Houston Electric's grid with a second phase of GHRI that will include strategic undergrounding, system hardening, self-healing grid technology and enhancements to the company's outage tracker. These efforts are all part of a longer-term resilience plan.

“Leveraging technology and AI to deliver better outcomes for our customers and communities is a significant part of the commitment we made after Hurricane Beryl,” adds CenterPoint President and CEO Jason Wells in a news release. “By simulating the potential impact of severe weather events on our infrastructure and customers, Neara’s platform and tools will inform our plans and actions before, during and after major weather events to help reduce the impact and duration of power outages. Understanding how weather scenarios and their risks could affect our operations will position us to be several steps ahead on our preparedness and response.”

In the wake of Hurricane Beryl, CenterPoint Energy announced its Greater Houston Resiliency Initiative. The initiative will include an “accelerated timeline to execute specific actions to strengthen electric infrastructure across Houston, and more than 40 critical actions in total to strengthen the electric grid, and improve the company's customer communications and emergency coordination before the next hurricane,” according to the company.

By prioritizing the deployment of smart, energy-efficient technologies, we can ensure that Houston remains at the forefront of the global energy landscape, setting the standard for other cities to follow. Photo via Getty Images

HVAC innovation has a huge role to play in Houston amid energy transition

Guest column

As Houston, the energy capital of the world, navigates the global energy transition, the city is uniquely positioned to lead by example. This transition isn’t just about shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy; it’s about creating an ecosystem where corporations, research institutions, startups, and investors collaborate to develop and implement innovative technologies.

One of the most promising areas for reducing energy consumption and minimizing environmental impact is in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning, or HVAC, systems.

Houston’s intense weather patterns demand efficient and adaptable climate control solutions. Traditional HVAC systems, while effective in maintaining indoor comfort, often operate on fixed settings that don’t account for real-time changes in occupancy or weather. This results in energy waste and increased utility costs — issues that can be mitigated by integrating artificial intelligence into HVAC systems.

AI-driven HVAC systems offer a dynamic approach to heating and cooling, learning from user preferences and environmental conditions to optimize performance. These systems use advanced algorithms to continuously adjust their operation, ensuring that energy is used only when and where it’s needed. This results in up to 30 percent greater energy efficiency compared to conventional systems, translating into significant savings for consumers and a reduction in overall energy demand.

For a city like Houston, where energy consumption is a critical concern, the widespread adoption of AI-integrated HVAC systems could have a substantial impact. By optimizing energy use in homes, offices, and industrial spaces, these systems help reduce the strain on the electrical grid, particularly during peak usage times. Additionally, they contribute to lowering greenhouse gas emissions, aligning with Houston’s broader sustainability goals.

The potential of AI in HVAC systems extends beyond efficiency and environmental benefits. These systems enhance the user experience by offering precise control over indoor climates, adapting to individual preferences, and responding to external conditions in real-time. This level of customization not only improves comfort but also supports a smarter, more sustainable approach to energy management.

Houston’s energy transition requires the collective efforts of all sectors. While large corporations and government entities play a significant role, the contributions of startups, research institutions, and energy service companies are equally important. These entities are at the forefront of developing technologies that address both the economic and environmental challenges of our time. Investors are increasingly recognizing the value of funding solutions that offer long-term sustainability alongside financial returns, further driving the adoption of innovative energy technologies.

The integration of AI into HVAC systems represents a crucial step forward in this journey. As Houston continues to evolve as a leader in energy innovation, embracing advanced technologies like AI-driven HVAC systems will be key to achieving a more sustainable and resilient energy future. These systems are not just a technological advancement—they are a strategic tool in the broader effort to reduce energy consumption, lower emissions, and create a healthier environment for all.

At the heart of Houston’s energy transition is the commitment to building a future that balances growth with sustainability. By prioritizing the deployment of smart, energy-efficient technologies, we can ensure that Houston remains at the forefront of the global energy landscape, setting the standard for other cities to follow. As we move forward, the integration of AI into our energy infrastructure, particularly in HVAC systems, will be instrumental in shaping a sustainable and prosperous future for Houston and beyond.

———

Trevor Schick is the president of KOVA, a Texas company creating sustainable solutions in building development.

University of Houston professor Xiaonan Shan and the rest of his research team are celebrating fresh funding from a federal grant. Photo via UH.edu

Houston scientists land $1M NSF funding for AI-powered clean energy project

A team of scientists from the University of Houston, in collaboration with Howard University in Washington D.C., has received a $1 million award from the National Science Foundation for a project that aims to automate the discovery of new clean-energy catalysts.

The project, dubbed "Multidisciplinary High-Performance Computing and Artificial Intelligence Enabled Catalyst Design for Micro-Plasma Technologies in Clean Energy Transition," aims to use machine learning and AI to improve the efficiency of catalysts in hydrogen generation, carbon capture and energy storage, according to UH.

“This research directly contributes to these global challenges,” Jiefu Chen, the principal investigator of the project and associate professor of electrical and computer engineering, said in a statement. “This interdisciplinary effort ensures comprehensive and innovative solutions to complex problems.”

Chen is joined by Lars Grabow, professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering; Xiaonan Shan, associate professor of electrical and computing engineering; and Xuquing Wu, associate professor of information science technology. Su Yan, an associate professor of electrical engineering and computer science at Howard University, is collaborating on the project.

The University of Houston team: Xiaonan Shan, associate professor electrical and computing engineering, Jiefu Chen, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering, Lars Grabow, professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering, and Xuquing Wu, associate professor of information science technology. Photo via UH.edu

The team will create a robotic synthesis and testing facility that will automate the experimental testing and verification process of the catalyst design process, which traditionally is slow-going. It will implement AI and advanced, unsupervised machine learning techniques, and have a special focus on plasma reactions.

The project has four main focuses, according to UH.

  1. Using machine learning to discover materials for plasma-assisted catalytic reactions
  2. Developing a model to simulate complex interactions to better understand microwave-plasma-assisted heating
  3. Designing catalysts supports for efficient microwave-assisted reactions
  4. Developing a bench scale reactor to demonstrate the efficiency of the catalysts support system

Additionally, the team will put the funding toward the development of a multidisciplinary research and education program that will train students on using machine learning for topics like computational catalysis, applied electromagnetics and material synthesis. The team is also looking to partner with industry on related projects.

“This project will help create a knowledgeable and skilled workforce capable of addressing critical challenges in the clean energy transition,” Grabow added in a statement. “Moreover, this interdisciplinary project is going to be transformative in that it advances insights and knowledge that will lead to tangible economic impact in the not-too-far future.”

This spring, UH launched a new micro-credential course focused on other applications for AI and robotics in the energy industry.

Around the same time, Microsoft's famous renowned co-founder Bill Gates spoke at CERAWeek to a standing-room-only crowd on the future of the industry. Also founder of Breakthrough Energy, Gates addressed the topic of AI.

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Houston-based co. closes acquisition of 50 percent stake in Texas cogeneration facility

M&A Moves

Fengate Asset Management announced the financial close on the acquisition of a 50 percent interest in Freeport Power Limited, which owns a 440-megawatt cogeneration facility in Freeport, Texas.

FPL is located near the Freeport Energy Center, which is a 260-megawatt cogeneration facility that is currently owned and managed by Fengate. The two facilities work to provide cost-effective power and steam to Dow’s Freeport site, which is the largest integrated chemical manufacturing complex in the Western Hemisphere.

“We are thrilled to have closed this acquisition, which aligns with our strategy of acquiring behind-the-meter cogeneration projects with strong industrial partners like Dow,” Greg Calhoun, managing director of Infrastructure Investments at Fengate, says in a news release.

Fengate was able to acquire interest in FPL under a strategic operating partnership with asset manager Ironclad Energy. The partnership with Ironclad was established in 2022 to acquire and operate cogeneration, district energy and other power generation projects throughout North America.

“This is our second acquisition with Fengate, and we look forward to continuing our partnership to optimize and expand the portfolio,” Christopher Fanella, president and CFO of Ironclad Energy, says in the release.

Fengate opened its first U.S. office in 2017 in Houston.

“Combined heat and power projects like FPL will continue to play an important role in the U.S. power industry – especially for hard-to-abate industrial sectors – to ensure reliability, efficiency and affordability,” adds in the release.

Houston energy leader on why the future of fuels is more than electric vehicles

guest column

Gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, and jet fuel. Four liquid hydrocarbons that have been powering transportation for the last 100-plus years.

Gas stations, truck stops, ports, and airport fuel terminals have been built up over the last century to make transportation easy and reliable.

These conventional fuels release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) when they are used, and governments all over the world are working on plans to shift towards cleaner fuels in an effort to lower emissions and minimize the effects of climate change.

For passenger cars, it’s clear that electricity will be the cleaner fuel type, with most countries adopting electric vehicles (EVs), and in some cases, providing their citizens with incentives to make the switch.

While many articles have been written about EVs and the benefits that come along with them, they fail to look at the transportation system as a whole.

Trucks, cargo ships, and airplanes are modes of transportation that are used every day, but they don’t often get the spotlight like EVs do.

For governments to be effective in curbing transportation-related greenhouse emissions, they must consider all forms of transportation and cleaner fuel options for them as well.

43 percent of GHG emissions comes from these modes of transportation. Therefore, using electricity to reduce GHG emissions in light duty vehicles only accounts for part of the total transportation emissions equation.

The path to cleaner fuels for these transportation modes has its challenges.

According to Ed Emmett, Fellow in Energy and Transportation Policy at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies (CES);

  • "Airplanes cannot be realistically powered by electricity, at least not currently, and handle the same requisite freight and passenger loads"
  • "The long-haul trucking industry [...] pushed back against electrification as being impractical due to the size and weight of batteries, their limited range, and the cost of adoption"
  • "Shipowners have expressed reluctance to scrap existing bunker fueled ships for newer, more expensive ships, especially when other fueling options, e.g. biofuels and hydrocarbon derivatives-for fleets can be made available"

Finding low-cost, reliable, and environmentally sound fuels for the various segments of transportation is complex. As Emmett suggests in his latest article;

"Hovering over the transition to other fuels for almost every transportation mode is the question of dependability of supply. For the trucking industry, the truck stop industry must be able to adapt to new fuel requirements. For ocean shipping, ports must be able to meet the fuel needs of new ships. Airlines, air cargo carriers and airports need to be on the same page when it comes to aviation fuels. In other words, the adoption equation in transitions in transportation is not only a function of the availability and cost of the new technology but also a function of the cost of the full supply chain needed to support fuel production and delivery to the point of use. Going forward, the transportation industry is facing a dilemma: How are environmental concerns addressed while simultaneously maintaining operational efficiency and avoiding unnecessary upward cost shifts for moving goods and people? In answering that question, for the first time in history, modes of transportation may end up going in multiple different directions when it comes to the fuels each mode ultimately chooses."

This is why many forecasts predict that hydrocarbon demand will continue through 2050, despite ambitious aspirations of achieving net zero emissions by that year. The McKinsey "slow evolution" scenario has global liquid hydrocarbon demand in 2050 at 92mmb/d versus 103 mmb/d in 2023. With their "continued momentum" scenario, oil demand is 75 mmb/d. Proportionally, global oil demand related to GHG emissions from transportation would decline 11-27 percent. The global uptake of EVs is the primary driver of uncertainty around future oil demand. In all the McKinsey scenarios, the share of EVs in passenger cars sales is expected to be above 90 percent by 2050.

The Good News

Despite the relatively slow progress expected for reducing GHG emissions in the global transportation sector, there are solutions emerging that lower the carbon footprint tied to traditional petroleum-based fuels. Emmett highlights some of the methods under study, noting that "sustainable biofuels sourced from cooking oils, animal fats, and agriculture products, as well as hydrogen, methanol, ammonia, and various e-fuels are among the options being tested. Some ocean carriers are already ordering ships powered by liquified natural gas, bio-e-methanol, bio/e-methane, ammonia, and hydrogen. Airlines are already using sustainable aviation fuel as a supplement to basic aviation fuel. Railroads are testing hydrogen locomotives. The trucking industry is decarbonizing local delivery by using vehicles powered by electricity, compressed natural gas, and sustainable diesel. Long-haul trucking companies are considering sustainable diesel as a drop-in fuel for existing equipment, and fuel suppliers are researching new engines fueled by hydrogen and other alternative fuels."

Most of these options will require a combination of increased government incentives, along with advancements in technology and cost reductions.

McKinsey's "sustainable transformation" scenario, which considers potential shifts in government regulations as well as advancements in technology and cost, suggests there is moderate growth in alternative fuels alongside growth in EVs. Mckinsey projects;

  • EV demand could grow to over 90 percent of total passenger car sales by 2050
  • EVs to make up around 80 percent of commercial truck sales by 2050
  • In aviation, low carbon fuels such as biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen and electricity are projected to grow to 49 percent by 2050.

According to McKinsey, the combination of these alternatives along with demand changes in power and chemicals could reduce global oil demand to 60 mmb/d in 2050. The shift to cleaner fuels, for modes of transportation other than EVs, is underway but the progress and adoption will take decades to achieve according to McKinsey’s forecasts.

Looking more closely at EVs, the story may not be as dire globally as it seems to be in the West. While the U.S. appears to be losing momentum on electric vehicle adoption, China is roaring ahead. New electric car registrations in China reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35 percent relative to 2022. McKinsey’s forecasts have underestimated global EV sales in the past, with China surpassing their estimates, while the U.S. lags behind. It’s clear that China is the winner in EV adoption; could they also lead the way to adopt cleaner fuels for other modes of transport? That is something governments and the transportation industry will be watching in the years ahead.

Conclusion

While we are not on a trajectory to meet the aspirations to reduce global GHG emissions in the transportation sector, there are emerging solutions that could be adopted should governments around the world decide to put in place the incentives to get there. Moving forward, the future of transportation fuels will be shaped by a mix of innovation, government policies, and what consumers want. The focus will be on ensuring that the transportation sector remains reliable, secure, and economically robust, while also reducing GHG emissions. But, decarbonizing the transportation sector is much more than just EV's – it's a broader effort that will require continued global progress in each of the multiple transportation segments.

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Scott Nyquist is a senior advisor at McKinsey & Company and vice chairman, Houston Energy Transition Initiative of the Greater Houston Partnership. The views expressed herein are Nyquist's own and not those of McKinsey & Company or of the Greater Houston Partnership. This article originally ran on LinkedIn on October 9, 2024.

Houston company secures $10M contract to deliver subsea well decommissioning solution

big deal

Houston energy services provider Expro was awarded a contract valued at over $10 million for the provision of a well decommissioning solution.

The solution will combine subsea safety systems and surface processing design that can enable safe entry to the well and management of well fluids.

“The contract reinforces our reputation as the leading provider of subsea safety systems and surface well test equipment, including within the P&A sector,” Iain Farley, Expro’s regional vice president for Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, says in a news release. "It demonstrates our commitment to delivering best-in-class equipment, allied with the highest standards of safety and service quality that Expro is renowned for.”

Expro will provide from its global support hub in Aberdeen, a surface fluid management package and a market-leading 7-3/8 inch large-bore subsea test tree assembly (SSTTA). This will include surface tree and controls that can provide dual barrier and disconnect capability to facilitate re-entry into the subsea wells.

Expro has been supplying its subsea safety systems and well test equipment to the construction of many of the 52 wells now being plugged and abandoned.

“Having been involved in the development phase for many of these fields, we have gained a life of well experience that will be invaluable for this P&A campaign,” Farley adds. “Our expertise and know-how will help deliver key technical and commercial benefits for the client across the project.”

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